Archive for ‘Economics’

21/04/2013

* Thirty-three percent of world’s poorest live in India

Reuters: “India has 33 percent of the world’s poorest 1.2 billion people, even though the country’s poverty rate is half as high as it was three decades ago, according to a new World Bank report.

India reduced the number of its poor from 429 million in 1981 to 400 million in 2010, and the extreme poverty rate dropped from 60 percent of the population to 33 percent during the same period. Despite the good news, India accounts for a higher proportion of the world’s poor than it used to. In 1981, it was home to 22 percent of the world’s poorest people.

The World Bank report comes just days after it proposed a $12 billion to $20 billion plan to reduce poverty levels over four years in the Indian states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Sixty percent of the financing would go to state government-backed projects, according to the Hindu Business Line newspaper.

The study that came out today showed a similar decline in the number of people living in poverty in recent years. People living below $1.25 (67 rupees) a day fell considerably from more than half the people in the developing world in 1981 to 21 percent in 2010, despite a 59 percent increase in world population during the same period.”

via India Insight.

21/04/2013

* Stephen Schwarzman unveils $300m China scholarship fund

BBC: “US private-equity magnate Stephen Schwarzman has launched a $300m (£200m) scholarship programme to send 200 foreign post-graduate students to study in China each year.

Blackstone boss Stephen A Schwarzman (file)

Mr Schwarzman is donating $100m of his personal $6.5bn fortune to the fund, and is raising a further $200m.

Selected students will spend a year at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Mr Schwarzman said he hoped to foster “a win-win relationship of mutual respect” between China and the West.

The Schwarzman Scholars programme aims to rival the 111-year-old Rhodes Scholarship programme which enables foreign students to study at the UK’s University of Oxford.

It is being backed by major, mainly Western firms, many with interests in China.”

via BBC News – Stephen Schwarzman unveils $300m China scholarship fund.

19/04/2013

# China’s Growth: The Making of an Economic Superpower – Dr Linda Yueh

On Thursday 18th April, I attended an excellent lunch-time lecture on this topic at the RSA, London  by Dr Linda Yueh which is based on her recent book – http://www.amazon.co.uk/Chinas-Growth-Making-Economic-Superpower/dp/0199205787.

Linda Yueh is BBC’s chief business correspondent, director of the China Growth Centre and fellow in economics at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford. She is also adjunct professor of economics at the London Business School; and visiting professor of Beida, Beijing.

Her talk covered two main areas:

For the growth drivers, I refer you to an excellent MindMap – http://mcgilljd.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/lsechina1.jpg?w=960&h=483 – by Jan D McGill, who wrote a very good summary of the LSE lecture on the same subject in March by Linda that Jan attended – http://mcgilljd.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/chinas-growth/.

I will summarise the Re-balancing challenges here – with my own thoughts following each headline:

  • Increasing internal market and reduce dependency on exports. This includes boosting services instead of manufacturing and infrastructure, and is slowly coming to bear and is highly dependent on the next factor.
  • Increase consumption, reduce savings. As this recent article by Reuters shows, this is probably not going to be an issue with the new generation of Chinese who are spending and not saving – http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/18/us-china-consumer-2020-insight-idUSBRE93H18K20130418
  • Increase private sector and reduce SOE. This is happening gradually and the pace needs to be increased. SOE is already down to between 30% and 50% of the economy. But there are concerns that in fact the pace is slowing and possibly reversing – http://www.economist.com/node/21564274
  • Increasing innovation and reducing imitation. On the face of it China is charging ahead with patents and new technology – https://chindia-alert.org/prognosis/how-well-will-china-and-india-innovate/ But some experts suspect the quality of the innovation.
  • Increasing opening up and globalising of Chinese firms.  The latter has yet to make an impact.

All in all, Linda’s prognosis is that, assuming political stability and continuity is maintained, there is every reason to believe that China will be an economic superpower within 30 years.

19/04/2013

* China’s 2020 consumer is in a town you’ve never heard of

Reuters: “Wearing a floral brocade cardigan and toting a Huawei smartphone, Guo Qian, 22, gushes over her latest purchases on Taobao, China’s largest e-commerce platform. As an administrative worker, Guo makes only 3,000 yuan a month and spends most of it.

Customers selects hats at a street stall at the business area of Jiaozuo, China's central Henan province, December 20, 2012. REUTERS-Aly Song

Not only does she spend nearly all of her own money, Guo also fritters away most of her father’s 1,000 yuan monthly pension on trinkets and clothes on Taobao. “Sometimes I feel guilty using his money, so I buy him some clothes.”

Guo, a Zhengzhou native, already owns an apartment – her parents helped finance the purchase last year – and is on the upward climb to join China’s burgeoning middle class.

As Beijing tries to engineer a crucial macroeconomic shift– toward more consumption and less investment, the crucial “rebalancing” China’s new leadership is committed to, and the rest of the world is counting on — it is young consumers like Guo Qian who may hold the key to the transition.

Raised in an era of unprecedented prosperity, Guo, like many other members of what is known as the `post-80s’ generation (anyone born after 1980) has a very different answer than her parents when it comes to a central economic question: whether to spend the money she has, or save it?

“I don’t save at all,” she told Reuters. ” Why should I?”

Her “spend it if you’ve got it” attitude, some economists argue, may help unlock the surge in consumption that China urgently needs to rebalance its economy over the next decade, ending an era of lopsided, investment driven growth.

“This 18-35 group, for a variety of reasons, are much more optimistic and more open to risk, because they haven’t yet experienced bad times at all,” says Benjamin Cavender associate principal analyst with China Market Research. “They tend to have high disposable income relative to their earning power, and they tend not to be saving heavily.”

This generational change in mindset, harnessed to the sheer number of people growing more prosperous in once poor provinces throughout the country – such as Guo’s native Henan – is recasting China’s economic landscape: both the composition of growth, and its geography, are about to change significantly.”

via Insight: China’s 2020 consumer is in a town you’ve never heard of | Reuters.

16/04/2013

* Central authority fails to face up to surge in emigration

Given that China has 1.3 billion people and there are over 1 million millionaires – according to Huran survey, does it matter that some successful people are emigrating? All it will do is open the way for the ‘next level’ to step up and be successful too.

See – http://business.financialpost.com/2012/08/01/meet-the-average-chinese-millionaire-39-plays-golf-and-owns-an-ipad/

16/04/2013

* Henan villagers ‘beaten up by hundreds of rail workers’ over land dispute

SCMP: “Villagers in central China’s Henan province who were protesting a land grab in Huangchuan county said they were beaten up by hundreds of employees from the China Railway 13th Bureau at the weekend.

rail.jpg

The villagers were demonstrating against the bureau, which planned to build a new railway line. They said they were “indiscriminately” attacked on Sunday morning by more than 300 uniformed construction workers with metre-long sticks, news portal Dahe.cn reported on Monday.

The protesters said the attackers spoke in northeastern Chinese accents and destroyed 30 mobile phones of those who had tried to film the incident. A villager’s car was also smashed up.

Police were called in but were “forced to turn back” by the 300 workers, the report said.

More than 10 people were injured and two were still in hospital on Monday.

The land dispute arose after villagers tried to prevent the bureau from acquiring the land for a new line for the Nanjing-Xian Railway. Villagers said the compensation offered to them was too low.

The China Railway 13th Bureau is a large state-owned construction enterprise and subsidiary of the China Railway Construction Corporation. Prior to 1948, it was part of the People’s Liberation Army Railway Corps No 3 Division.”

via Henan villagers ‘beaten up by hundreds of rail workers’ over land dispute | South China Morning Post.

16/04/2013

* India, Known for Outsourcing, Now Wants to Make Its Own Chips

NY Times: “The government of India, home to many of the world’s leading software outsourcing companies, wants to replicate that success by creating a homegrown industry for computer hardware. But unlike software, which requires little infrastructure, building electronics is a far more demanding business. Chip makers need vast quantities of clean water and reliable electricity. Computer and tablet assemblers depend on economies of scale and easy access to cheap parts, which China has spent many years building up.

So the Indian government is trying a new, carrot-and-stick approach.

In October, it quietly began mandating that at least half of all laptops, computers, tablets and dot-matrix printers procured by government agencies come from domestic sources, according to Dr. Ajay Kumar, joint secretary of the Department of Electronics and Information Technology, which devised the policy.

At the same time, it is dangling as much as $2.75 billion in incentives in front of chip makers to entice them to build India’s first semiconductor manufacturing plant, an important step in building a domestic hardware industry.

But like so much of India’s economic policy, it’s doubtful that either initiative will have the impact the government is intending.”

via India, Known for Outsourcing, Now Wants to Make Its Own Chips – NYTimes.com.

16/04/2013

* U.S. Visa Law Holds Good and Bad For India

WSJ: “A draft U.S. immigration law, likely to be unveiled this week, holds good and bad news for Indian IT companies.

Indian outsourcing firms like Infosys 500209.BY -1.71% Tata Consulting Services 532540.BY +0.64% and Wipro have large offices in the U.S. that service American clients. To keep costs down, these firms send thousands of Indian workers to such centers on skilled worker, or H-1B, visas.

Indian firms have long argued a cap on these visas is unfair. This year the cap of 65,000 H-1B visas already has been reached, meaning Indian companies will need to hire more-expensive short-term workers locally in the U.S., depressing their margins.

The draft U.S. immigration law, described to the Wall Street Journal by Senate aides, aims to drastically overhaul the nation’s immigrations procedures. It seeks to create a pathway to citizenship for some 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally.

For Indian firms, the bill’s interest lies in changes it proposes for the H-1B program. The legislation seeks to increase the cap on these visas to 110,000, with the ability to go as high as 180,000 depending on economic conditions and demand. An additional 25,000 visas would be available for people who have earned advanced degrees in the U.S.

But that’s where the good news ends, says the National Association of Software and Services Companies, or Nasscom, the Indian IT industry trade body. It is worried by other proposals in the bill that will demand employers who want to tap the high-skilled-visa program to “pay significantly higher wages for H-1B workers than under current law.”

The bill also would require those employers to advertise open jobs for 30 days on a U.S. Department of Labor website before they could bring in foreign workers. Employers who rely heavily on non-U.S. workers would be forced to pay higher fees.

The idea here is to soften criticism in the U.S. that the visa program is being used to give jobs to Indian and other foreign workers that U.S. employees could do at a time of relatively high unemployment.

“The comprehensive immigration reform was necessary in the U.S. It’s good that it’s happening,” says Ameet Nivsarkar, vice president of Nasscom. But he said the association was worried the higher wage provision could be used to keep out Indian companies, by far the biggest users of H-1B visas.

“Our single biggest worry is that these rules may be applied in a discriminatory manner, only on a certain section of companies,” Mr. Nivsarkar said.

Nasscom is lobbying for a fairer visa policy in the U.S., he said. “That’s our job. We are working through our partners in the U.S. and with the government in India.”

More than 80% of the operating costs of Indian technology companies come from wages. Salaries to employees at overseas locations account for half of total wage costs. Any increase in overseas salaries may squeeze the profitability of the companies, analysts say.

“Any crimp on the movement of human capital will hurt trade between India and the U.S. and will eventually impact both Indian and non-Indian services companies, as well as their U.S. clients,” says Siddharth Pai, president of the Asia-Pacific business of U.S.-based technology advisory services firm Information Services Group.

By raising the overall costs for skilled-worker visas, the U.S. is raising barriers to trade with India, he added.”

via U.S. Visa Law Holds Good and Bad For India – India Real Time – WSJ.

16/04/2013

* China’s freeway to North Korea: A road to nowhere

Reuters: “A new stretch of China’s G12 expressway arcs toward the northernmost tip of North Korea, connecting one of the world’s most vibrant economies to probably its most stagnant. It is a symbol of China’s long-term goal of building economic ties with its unpredictable neighbor.

A woman stands in a gift shop in central Rason city, part of the special economic zone northeast of Pyongyang, in this August 30, 2011 file photo. REUTERS-Carlos Barria-Files

But the thin traffic along a highway lined with fallow fields in China’s Jilin province, two years after it was finished, shows how far there is to go and why plans for high-speed rail links to Chinese cities along the border look misplaced.

The problem for Beijing is twofold: getting Pyongyang to buy into the idea of economic reform and the reluctance of Chinese businessmen to venture into one of the world’s riskiest investment destinations.

While China is frustrated with Pyongyang over its threats to wage war on South Korea and the United States, its efforts to build economic links with North Korea from places like Jilin help explain why Beijing is unlikely to crack down hard on the reclusive state.

Since then-Premier Wen Jiabao went to North Korea in 2009 – just months after Pyongyang’s second nuclear test – China has sought to stabilize the Korean peninsula by stepping up its effort to steer the North toward economic reform. China is not about to give up that goal even though it’s under U.S. pressure to get tough after North Korea’s third nuclear test, on February 12.

“It’s not even shepherding anymore. It’s more of just inundating North Korea with all of these influences from the Chinese side where the idea is to essentially corrupt them, show them what it tastes like to make money,” said John Park, a North Korea expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Harvard Kennedy School.”

via Insight: China’s freeway to North Korea: A road to nowhere | Reuters.

16/04/2013

* China, India, Singapore could join new Arctic Circle forum

Reuters: “China, India, Singapore and other countries far from the Arctic Circle could be part of a new global forum to widen the discussion about the fate of the planet’s Far North, Iceland President Olafur Grimsson said on Monday.

Map of the Arctic with the Arctic Circle in blue.

Map of the Arctic with the Arctic Circle in blue. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The non-profit forum, Arctic Circle, will hold its first meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland’s capital, in October.

Such a gathering is needed, Grimsson said, because, while most countries have a stake in the melting of Arctic ice, only eight – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States – are members of the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental group set up in 1996.

Some non-Arctic countries can observe the deliberations, but they have no formal voice on the Council about sustainable development and environmental protection in the region.

The Icelandic leader said he had discussions about the Arctic this year with officials from China, India and Singapore. The first agenda item of these discussions was when these countries would get a seat on the Arctic Council.

The Arctic Circle forum will be “an open, democratic tent where everybody who wants to participate will actually be welcome,” Grimsson said at an event at the National Press Club.

He said concerned citizens, representatives of non-governmental organizations, scientists, researchers can join governments and corporations to be part of this discussion.

And while it may take a while for the Arctic Council to decide which countries might become permanent observers at its meetings, these same countries can send representatives to the Arctic Circle to make the case for inclusion.

He also mentioned that China and Iceland announced a new free trade agreement on Monday.

Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change and a powerful global weather-maker. Last year, Arctic sea ice melted to its lowest levels on record, authorities have said.

Besides making global sea levels rise and influencing world weather, the ice melt means new water routes are opening between Europe, Asia and North America, a trend that will have a profound impact on global shipping.

Last year, as summer sea ice shrank, the first Chinese icebreaker made the trip from Shanghai to Iceland via the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast.

By mid-century, the quickest way to get goods from Asia to the U.S. East Coast might well be right over the North Pole, according to a University of California-Los Angeles study.”

via China, India, Singapore could join new Arctic Circle forum | Reuters.

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