Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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Members of a road construction team depart from the advance camp at an altitude of 6,500 meters of Mount Qomolangma in southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, May 10, 2020. A road construction team will work on a route to the peak of Mount Qomolangma on May 12 if weather conditions permit. China initiated a new round of measurement on the height of Mount Qomolangma, the world’s highest peak, on April 30. The measurement team consists of members from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the national mountaineering team. (Xinhua/Sun Fei)
MOUNT QOMOLANGMA BASE CAMP, May 10 (Xinhua) — A road construction team will work on a route to the peak of Mount Qomolangma on May 12 if weather conditions permit.
In order to complete missions of building a route to the peak and transporting materials to camps below 8,300 meters above sea level, members of road construction and transportation teams departed for a camp at an altitude of 7,028 meters from the advance camp at an altitude of 6,500 meters at 7:00 a.m. Sunday.
The members eliminated potential safety hazards along the route and arrived at the camp at 2:00 p.m.
On May 12, a total of 12 guides will depart from the camp at an altitude of 7,028 meters to transport materials to another camp.
China initiated a new round of measurement on the height of Mount Qomolangma, the world’s highest peak, on April 30. The measurement team consists of members from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the national mountaineering team.
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, Chinese surveyors have conducted six rounds of scaled measurement and scientific research on Mount Qomolangma and released the height of the peak twice in 1975 and 2005, which was 8,848.13 meters and 8,844.43 meters respectively.
Image copyright BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIImage caption Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks
Speculation and rumour about Kim Jong-un’s health may amount to nothing, but questions about who might succeed him in the short or long term will always be there. The BBC spoke to analysts about the contenders and whether history is on their side.
A male member of the Kim family has been in charge of North Korea ever since its founding by Kim Il-sung in 1948 – and the mythology of this family runs deep throughout society.
Propaganda about its greatness begins for citizens before they can even read: pre-schoolers sing a song called: “I want to see our leader Kim Jong-un.”
So how can you imagine a North Korea without this symbolic and political figure at the top? How would elites organise themselves, as well as society as a whole?
The easy answer is: we don’t know. More interestingly, they don’t know either. They have never had to do it.
Image copyrightXINHUAImage captionKim Il-sung is the founder of North Korea and his son Kim Jong-il took over
As Kim Jong-un was being prepared for power, they even began using the term “Paektu Bloodline” to help legitimise his rule. Paektu is the sacred and mythologised mountain where Kim Il-sung is said to have waged guerrilla war and where Kim Jong-il was reportedly born. Kim Jong-un still goes there when he wants to emphasise important policy decisions.
There has always been a Kim at the ideological heart of the country.
What would North Korea be like without such an heir? Kim Jong-un, 36, is believed to have children – but they are far too young. It is thought he has three children, the oldest being 10 and the youngest three. Kim Jong-un himself was considered young when he took power – he was 27.
It is likely that some sort of group leadership would emerge, perhaps as in Vietnam, that leans heavily on the founder’s teachings and legitimacy to boost their own standing.
Observers can track who holds certain key positions and can follow news and open-source intelligence about important institutions, but can’t really tell how factions are developing, nor who is holding power through personal rather than institutional bonds. Moreover, sometimes vice or deputy directors wield more real power than the titular heads of institutions. This makes all predictions extremely difficult.
The three remaining Kims
Image copyrightPATRICK SEMANSKY – POOL /GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yo-jong, as the only woman in the top leadership, has sparked fascination
The are three Kims who could potentially be involved in the political make-up of North Korea if Kim Jong-un were to disappear. They all face limitations in carrying on family rule.
The first is Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister. She is said to have been a favourite of her father who commented on her precocity, her interest in politics from a young age. Her manner is efficient, mild and one suspects rather observant. Much has been made of her closeness to her brother. At the Singapore Trump-Kim summit she was famously on hand to pass him a pen to sign the agreement with, and at the next summit in Hanoi, was pictured peeking out from behind corners as her brother posed for statesman-like photos.
Yet she was not above a temporary demotion after the Hanoi summit – purportedly because of its failure although this will never be confirmed. She doesn’t sit on the top policy-making body, the State Affairs Commission, but is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) of the Workers’ Party of Korea. These may seem like incomprehensible acronyms but the PAD is a powerful organisation that ensures ideological loyalty in the system.
She is a woman, however, and this makes it hard to imagine her occupying the top position in such a deeply patriarchal country. North Korea is an extremely male state, in which gender carries rigid expectations. Being supreme leader, and certainly running the military, does not fit in the range of womanly duties.
The second is Kim Jong-chul. He is Kim Jong-un’s older brother, but has never appeared interested in politics or power. (He is known to be interested in Eric Clapton.) At most, he could be a symbolic link to the Kim family: perhaps made the head of a foundation and put forward to read the odd speech.
The final one is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother. His mother – Kim Jong-il’s stepmother – was angling to have him become Kim Il-sung’s successor. She failed and was sidelined by Kim Jong-il as he rose in influence. Kim Pyong-il was sent to Europe in 1979, where he has held various ambassadorships, returning to North Korea only last year. This means it is very unlikely he has the network to be a central player in elite politics in Pyongyang.
The second-most powerful man in North Korea right now
Image copyrightALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESImage captionAs special envoy for Kim Jong-un Choe Ryong-hae (right) has met foreign dignitaries
There are other individuals who have been central in the Kim Jong-un era, but it is difficult to know who among them would form co-operative relationships and who would compete with one another.
One is Choe Ryong-hae. He has had his ups and downs under Kim Jong-un, but having weathered a few storms currently sits on the presidium of the politburo and is also first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission. Last year he became the first new president in 20 years, replacing the aging Kim Yong-nam – so he is the person who represents the North at international engagements.
Choe has also held high positions in the military and the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) of the Worker’s Party of Korea, responsible for enforcing loyalty throughout the regime. This is an extremely powerful organisation: it enforces the adherence of all citizens to North Korea’s ideology. He is probably the second most powerful man in North Korea.
The old spymasters and rising political grandees
Image copyrightOLIVIER DOULIERY-POOL/GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yong-chol travelled to Washington DC to meet Donald Trump
Another is Kim Yong-chol. This general paved the way for the Trump-Kim summits, meeting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo several times. He has been head of the United Front Department (responsible for relations with South Korea) and the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s main intelligence service. He seems to have suffered a demotion following the collapse talks with the United States, but it is unlikely this spymaster will remain obscure for long.
Yet another is Kim Jae-ryong. As well as being on the State Affairs Commission, he is Premier of the Cabinet, a moderately influential position. Relatively little is known about him, but his star has risen in the past years as others have fallen. He is known for managing industries and ran the most isolated province, home to key military-industrial sites, for several years. This may mean he has been closely involved in the nuclear program.
Jong Kyong-taek is responsible for the State Security Department, which investigates and punishes political crimes. It also helps physically protect the leadership. These are crucial responsibilities that help enforce stability in the system.
Hwang Pyong-so is another official who has held top military posts and has run the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era. Like Choe (and many others) he has been disciplined; he doesn’t seem to have been rehabilitated in the same way, however. Other 2010s foreign policy stalwarts Ri Yong-ho and Ri Su-yong have also seen roles diminish recently. They have been replaced by Ri Son-gwon and Kim Hyung-jun. The former is said to be an ally of Kim Yong-chol.
The military enforcers
A handful of top generals of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) would also certainly exert influence in any transition period. Currently, two men sit atop the General Political Bureau of the KPA, Kim Su-gil and Kim Won-hong. This bureau enforces political loyalty in the military, something that would be absolutely crucial during periods of uncertainty.
Kim Won-hong, helps illustrate how difficult it is to predict how power would be shared if Kim Jong-un were no longer there. Kim Won-hong and Hwang Pyong-so had been thought to be rivals, competing to influence Kim Jong-un at the other’s expense.
Amongst top elites, who would clash and who would ally? Would there be pro and anti-Kim Yo-jong factions? Would the fear of instability stop rivalries from getting out of hand? After all, it is in no elite politician’s interest to see the state collapse, opening the door for some kind of takeover by South Korea, or even China.
There is currently no perfect contender: his sister would have to overcome the sexism and the break from tradition of a male heir. Anybody else is not directly descended from that all-important Paektu bloodline. but in the end, they will all have to think of the unity of the state they have defied every international norm to preserve.
Top law enforcement body starts campaign to rally mainland support for officers amid anti-government protests
Maxim’s described as ‘company that loves the country and loves Hong Kong’ after condemnation of unrest by daughter of founder
Officer Lau (third from left) and police colleagues receive a delivery of mooncakes. Photo: Weibo
China’s top law enforcement agency has shown its support for Hong Kong’s embattled police by delivering 650 boxes of mooncakes to the force’s dormitories and stations ahead of Friday’s Mid-Autumn Festival.
The festive gifts were sent after an online campaign titled “I want to send hometown delicacies to Hong Kong Police”, launched last Friday by Chang An Jian, an official social media account of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, Beijing’s top political body responsible for law and order.
The commission – a Communist Party organ, rather than a government body that police report to – said in a blog post that seven people had donated about 150,000 yuan (US$21,000) between them.
The campaign represents the latest display of mainland support for the force, with no end in sight to mass protests in Hong Kong triggered in June by opposition to an
that would have allowed the transfer of criminal suspects to mainland China. Hong Kong police have faced numerous accusations of excessive use of force during the unrest.
But the mooncake delivery was complicated by customs regulations, with most major Chinese courier services unwilling to take deliveries containing processed meat and egg yolk across the border with Hong Kong.
“[We] were panicking because a lot of enthusiastic netizens had their salted duck and mooncake deliveries to Hong Kong rejected by couriers!” a Chang An Jian blog post said on Wednesday night.
In the end, 650 boxes of mooncakes that were bought from Hong Kong were sent to police dormitories and stations on Wednesday evening.
Mid-Autumn Festival is the second most important traditional Chinese holiday after Lunar New Year.
“[The mooncakes] were from Maxim’s, a company that loves the country and loves Hong Kong!” the blog post also said.
Annie Wu Suk-ching, whose father co-founded the Maxim’s chain, last week
She was lauded by Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily for “clearly adhering to the one country principle” – referring to “one country, two systems”, the principle under which Hong Kong was guaranteed a high degree of autonomy after it was handed over from British to Chinese rule in 1997.
One of Maxim’s biggest rival mooncake manufacturers in Hong Kong, Taipan Bread and Cake, had its products removed from shops across the Chinese mainland and from its biggest e-commerce sites, Tmall.com and JD.com, after the son of its founder was vilified by People’s Daily for a Facebook post that the newspaper said showed he backed the protests.
Recipients of the mooncakes included a police officer who in July was hailed as a hero by Chinese state media and nicknamed “bald sergeant Lau Sir” after pointing a shotgun at protesters who had besieged a police station. Lau has since been invited by Beijing to attend a grand celebration on October 1 for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Mooncake importer says stock will be destroyed after mainland backlash
Beijing has focused attention on the violent elements of the Hong Kong protests in its social media posts and media coverage, while businesses have been carefully monitored and expected to toe Beijing’s line on condemning violence and supporting one country, two systems.
“Hong Kong Police have been having a very difficult time,” said one mainlander, surnamed Lu, in a video posted by Chang An Jian. “We want to cheer them up.”
BEIJING, Sept. 11 (Xinhua) — Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday expressed his expectation for the Japanese economic community to seize the opportunities of China’s opening up, increase investment in China and expand bilateral cooperation areas to promote more achievements in trade and the economy.
Li made the remarks in a meeting with a delegation from Japan’s business community, led by president of the Japan-China Association on Economy and Trade Shoji Muneoka, chair of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry Akio Mimura, and Nobuyuki Koga, chairman of the Board of Councilors of the Japan Business Federation.
China-Japan relations have returned to the right track since last year thanks to the joint efforts of the two sides, and the trade and economic cooperation between the two countries has been steadily advanced and the prospects for bilateral cooperation are broad, said Li.
When China-Japan relations encountered difficulties, the Japanese economic community made important efforts and contributions to maintain their healthy and steady development as well as accelerate pragmatic cooperation between the two countries, the Chinese premier said.
According to Li, China and Japan are two of the world’s major economies, and should give full play to their complementary advantages and work together to deepen cooperation, which will not only benefit the two countries, but also conducive to regional and global economy, as well as the prosperity and stability of the world.
Noting that economic globalization is irreversible, and economic and trade exchanges should not be blocked by national borders, Li pointed out that promoting the healthy development of globalization is the way of progress.
“China has always firmly upheld the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core and promotes the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment,” Li said, stressing China will unswervingly promote all-round opening up, and strive to optimize the business environment.
China welcomes the Japanese economic community to seize the opportunity brought forth by China’s opening up and increase investments in China, expand cooperation areas, and promote more cooperation achievements in trade and economic areas between the two countries, he said.
While expressing congratulations on the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the Japanese economic delegation said that Japan and China have witnessed progress in bilateral ties since last year, and close high-level exchanges have facilitated the two countries’ economic and trade cooperation.
The Japanese economic community firmly supports free trade and hopes China and the United States will resolutely resolve their trade disputes through negotiation, they said.
Speaking highly of China’s efforts in promoting trade and investment liberalization, expanding market access and improving the business environment, they said that the Japanese economic community is willing to boost cooperation with the Chinese side in science and technology innovation, climate change, health care and third-party markets.
They also expressed their expectation of concluding the negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a proposed free trade agreement between the 10 ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members and Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, by the end of the year.
BEIJING, Sept. 7 (Xinhua) — China’s National Museum of Classic Books unveiled an exhibition in Beijing Saturday to showcase the preservation and inheritance of ancient Chinese books over the past 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
More than 330 precious collections from over 70 public institutions and private collectors around the country, ranging from ancient government archives, maps, manuscripts to paintings, have been put on display.
The exhibition, sponsored by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the National Cultural Heritage Administration, is the largest of its kind since the founding of the PRC in 1949.
With digital virtual sand table demonstration, holographic and immersive digital scenes, the curator tries to use diversified means and modern technologies to facilitate audience experience.
Li Zhanshu, chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, meets with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines, also co-chair of the U.S. House of Senate U.S.-China Working Group, and U.S. Senator David Perdue in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 2, 2019. (Xinhua/Ding Haitao)
BEIJING, Sept. 2 (Xinhua) — Top legislator Li Zhanshu met with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines and Senator David Perdue here on Monday.
Commending their long-term efforts to promote the development of bilateral relations and exchanges between the legislative bodies, Li, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), said this year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.
He said history has proven that China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation and a healthy China-U.S. relationship meets the common interests of both countries and the world.
China is committed to the road of peaceful development and upholds an opening strategy featuring mutual benefit and win-win results, said Li, adding that the NPC is ready to work with the U.S. Congress to enhance cooperation and to properly handle differences and sensitive issues through dialogue and constructive means.
Daines, also co-chair of the U.S. House of Senate U.S.-China Working Group, and Perdue said U.S.-China relations are one of the most important bilateral relations in the world and members from the working group are ready to make efforts to promote mutual understanding between the two governments and the two peoples.
Wang Chen, vice chairperson of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, met with Daines and Perdue earlier in the day.
President Xi Jinping has shown himself capable of surprise, whether he is responding to the Hong Kong protests or the US trade war. But his failure to pardon political prisoners and rally China proves there are limits to his flexibility
President Xi Jinping waves as he reviews troops on Tiananmen Square during a Victory Day military parade in September 2015. He has signed two amnesty orders since taking office, one to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war in 2015, and the other to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic China this year. Photo: EPA
To mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing has granted special pardons to
amnesty since the Communist Party took control of the country, and the second since Xi Jinping took office. The previous amnesty was announced in 2015, on the occasion of the
(although there are no political crimes under the Chinese penal code, in reality those facing political persecution are often convicted of criminal offences). It would have demonstrated the stated aims of the amnesty, which include continuing the fine traditions of Chinese civilisation, such as cautious punishment and benevolence to prisoners. It would also have shown there is still a sliver of space for political openness in the
Out of the nine categories announced, political prisoners could have fallen under the sixth category – those aged 75 and above and with serious physical disabilities. But the Chinese government also stated it would not pardon those who refused to repent or were deemed dangerous to society, provisions that would exclude political prisoners.
Since Xi came to power, Beijing has strengthened its
. Yet, considering China’s current social situation, it should be difficult, but not impossible, for Xi to pardon political prisoners and send a reassuring signal to society.
Beijing had declared seven amnesties before 1975, but none between 1975 and 2015 – not even during the two relatively relaxed decades, the
. The amnesty of 2015 was unexpected because while the 70th anniversary of China’s victory against Japan was major, it was also just a commemorative celebration. To some extent, it illustrated Xi’s ability to surprise – and he has sprung more surprises since.
Recently, contrary to many observers’ expectations, Xi did not push for tough measures against the
had a crisis of confidence and many believed Xi would ramp up the policy of promoting the state sector over the private sector, he made a 180-degree turn towards
text. It is clear from all this that Xi understands the strategy of advance and retreat. If a situation is unfavourable for his or the party’s rule, he will adjust his policy.
And the current political climate in China would seem to warrant an adjustment. Xi’s leftist practices have alienated many and caused resentment in some sections of the party and society; in particular, he has destroyed the party’s relationship with
of alienating intellectuals, and is calling on top-level cadres to rebuild the relationship with scholars to strengthen the legitimacy of the party’s rule.
Internationally, an amnesty is a humanitarian measure that creates an atmosphere of reconciliation and regulates the political climate. Xi, who has abolished a term limit on the presidency, wants to maintain stable,
, it is reasonable to loosen the tightly wound spring that is Chinese society, and restore some flexibility. Special pardons would alleviate social conflict, reunite intellectuals, ease tension with the party’s critics, and avoid worsening the social divide.
Have the extradition protests sealed Hong Kong’s fate with Beijing?
In announcing the latest amnesty, Beijing emphasised the need to exude institutional confidence,
China as a great nation in a new era of prosperity, and to project an image of an advanced culture that is open, democratic and respects the rule of law.
China has a tradition of holding small celebrations every five years and big celebrations every 10 years. To highlight the great achievements and high morals of Xi, the new helmsman steering his people towards socialism, a wider net was cast for the latest special pardons: nine categories of prisoners, compared to four categories in 2015.
However, in setting stricter conditions to exclude some from the amnesty – in particular, political prisoners – Beijing has revealed the hypocrisy of its special pardons, to say nothing of its failure to enhance institutional confidence.
In short, Xi has squandered what could have been a good move to unite the Chinese people. Whatever his reasons might be, this amnesty should make one thing clear to the world: although Xi can be opportunistic and flexible in his ruling strategy, he is intransigent on the fundamental question of
Visiting Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (L) and Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Chyngyz Aidarbekov attend a signing ceremony of the Cooperation Program from 2020 to 2021 between Chinese Foreign Ministry and Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on May 21, 2019. (Xinhua/Li Yong)
BISHKEK, May 21 (Xinhua) — Visiting Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday held talks with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Chyngyz Aidarbekov in Bishkek, vowing to enhance cooperation in various fields between the two countries.
Wang noted that China and Kyrgyzstan are friendly neighbors and comprehensive strategic partners linked by mountains and rivers. The two heads of states reached a wide range of consensuses on further developing bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership on the sidelines of the second Belt and Road Forum of International Cooperation in Beijing in April.
Taking the opportunity of jointly building the Belt and Road, China is ready to pursue coordination of the development strategies between China and Kyrgyzstan and effectively implement the key projects for the benefit of the two peoples, the Chinese state councilor said during the meeting.
To this end, the two sides should work to build closer people-to-people ties, promote local-level cooperation, further strengthen security cooperation ties and expand cooperation in fighting the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism, transnational crime and drug trafficking, said Wang, adding that China fully supports Kyrgyzstan in hosting the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in June to promote further cooperation among the member states.
Wang stressed that the sustained, steady and sound development of bilateral relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples. China appreciates Kyrgyzstan’s firm support on some major issues concerning Taiwan and Xinjiang, and will resolutely support Kyrgyzstan’s independent choice of development path as well as its internal and external policies to maintain national independence, sovereignty and security.
For his part, Aidarbekov extended warm congratulations on the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and expressed sincere admiration for China’s great achievements during the 40 years of reform and opening up.
He noted that Kyrgyzstan attaches great importance to the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, fully supports the Belt and Road Initiative, and is ready to further promote bilateral cooperation in the fields of trade, investment, energy, transportation, agriculture and disaster relief.
The Kyrgyz foreign minister stressed that his country firmly upholds the one-China policy, fully supports China’s stance on its internal affairs including Taiwan and Xinjiang issues and hopes the mutual political trust between the two countries can be further strengthened.
Following their talks, the two officials signed the Cooperation Program from 2020 to 2021 between Chinese Foreign Ministry and Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry and jointly met with the press.
Members of a road construction team depart from the advance camp at an altitude of 6,500 meters of Mount Qomolangma in southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, May 10, 2020. A road construction team will work on a route to the peak of Mount Qomolangma on May 12 if weather conditions permit. China initiated a new round of measurement on the height of Mount Qomolangma, the world’s highest peak, on April 30. The measurement team consists of members from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the national mountaineering team. (Xinhua/Sun Fei)
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 