Archive for ‘Neighbour conflict’

20/02/2014

China training for ‘short, sharp war’, says senior US naval officer – FT.com

China has been training for a “short, sharp war” against Japan in the East China Sea, a senior US military officer has claimed, in comments that underline the growing military tensions in the western Pacific.

Disputed territory

Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet, said that a large-scale Chinese military exercise conducted in 2013 was designed to prepare forces for an operation to seize disputed islands in the East China Sea, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu.

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise – Mission Action 2013,” Capt Fanell said at a navy conference last week in San Diego.

“We concluded that the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has been given the new task of being able to conduct a short, sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be an expected seizure of the Senkakus,” he added.

Conducting a training exercise is very different from having an actual plan to seize the islands. For years, the Chinese military has staged exercises designed to mimic a possible invasion of Taiwan.

However, the comments about China’s military training plans come at a time of considerable tension surrounding the contested islands. The regular presence of both Chinese and Japanese vessels and aircraft in the region has raised the risk of an accident that could spark a wider confrontation.

In December, China declared an air defence identification zone for the East China Sea, which the US and many other countries in the region interpreted as an attempt to cement its sovereignty claim over the disputed islands.

Although Capt Fanell’s remarks were unusually blunt in their assessment of China’s intentions, they represent a growing tide of anxiety from senior US officials about Beijing’s ambitions in both the East China Sea and South China Sea.

Earlier in February, Danny Russel, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, warned “there are growing concerns that this pattern of behaviour in the South China Sea reflects incremental effort by China to assert control over the area”. He said that China’s recent actions had “created uncertainty, insecurity and instability in the region”.

Capt Fanell said that Chinese maritime training had shifted in character in the second half of 2013 to prepare for “realistic maritime combat” that its navy might encounter. Last year, it conducted nine operations in the western Pacific that were designed to “practise striking naval targets”.

“I do not know how Chinese intentions could be more transparent,” he said. When Beijing described its activities as the “protection of maritime rights”, this was really “a Chinese euphemism for the coerced seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbours”, Capt Fanell said.

via China training for ‘short, sharp war’, says senior US naval officer – FT.com.

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10/02/2014

East China Sea: What Do China and Japan Really Want?

Very worrying. China and Japan seem to be sleep-walking into military conflict, with the US not awake at all!

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09/01/2014

Japan wants India’s support on disputes with China – The Hindu

Engaged in a territorial dispute with China, Japan on Thursday sought to rope in India’s support over “the recent Chinese provocative actions” saying a message needs to be sent to it collectively that status quo cannot be changed by force.

Union Defence Minister A.K. Antony with his Japanese counterpart Itsunori Onodera in New Delhi. File photo

Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said dialogue is the only way to resolve the row created by imposition of restrictions by China in the East China Sea and other areas.

“For both India and Japan, China is an important neighbouring country. Both countries have important economic linkages with China. However, after the recent Chinese provocative actions, entire international community will have to send a message to China,” he told PTI in an interview in New Delhi.

“Both Japan and India should ask for a dialogue with Chinese side and tell China not to change status quo by force. These issues should be solved through dialogue and following international rules,” the Minister said.

He was responding when asked whether India and Japan could come together on issues with China as both the countries have territorial disputes with it.

The security situation in the region against the backdrop of recent tensions between Japan and China triggered by imposition of ‘Air Defence Identification Zone’ (ADIZ) over East China Sea and other areas by China came up during talks between Mr. Onodera and his Indian counterpart A.K. Antony on Monday.

During the meeting, Mr. Antony is understood to have told Onodera that India stands for freedom of navigation in international waters and application of global conventions.

After the ADIZ started creating tensions in the South East Asian region, India had stated that the issue should be resolved between the concerned parties through dialogue in a peaceful way and it was against use of force to resolve the matters.

Asked about an earlier proposal by Tokyo for forming a trilateral grouping of India, Japan and the U.S. to deal with challenges from China, Mr. Onodera said, “India and Japan have good ties with the U.S. Economically and internationally and in terms of military forces, these are big countries.”

He said that, “If India, Japan and the U.S. are in cooperation and send a common message

via Japan wants India’s support on disputes with China – The Hindu.

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16/12/2013

U.S. offers new assistance to Vietnam to patrol seas | Reuters

Sounds to me like “pouring oil on troubled waters”!

“The United States on Monday offered fresh financial assistance to Vietnam to boost maritime security on its borders, which comes as regional tension grows with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

A Vietnamese naval soldier stands quard at Thuyen Chai island in the Spratly archipelago January 17, 2013. REUTERS/Quang Le

On his first visit to Vietnam as secretary of state, John Kerry denied the new assistance had anything to do with China although he called for \”intensified negotiations and diplomatic initiatives\” between China and Japan on resolving differences in the East China Sea.

He repeated that the United States did not recognize a new air defense zone announced by China this month over the East China Sea.

via U.S. offers new assistance to Vietnam to patrol seas | Reuters.

13/12/2013

Nanjing Massacre memorials to be held |Society |chinadaily.com.cn

A man is pictured in front of a wall at the memorial hall of the victims in Nanjing massacre by Japanese invaders in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, Dec 12, 2013. Nanjing Massacre memorials to be held

NANJING – A series of memorials will be held on Thursday and Friday in the city of Nanjing to mark the 76th anniversary of a massacre that claimed the lives of 300,000 Chinese civilians and disarmed soldiers.

Nanjing witnessed mass murder, genocide and war rape following the Japanese capture of the city in December 13, 1937, during World War II.

Memorial events will include a candlelight vigil, a prayer assembly for peace, as well as press conferences and seminars, according to Zhu Chengshan, curator of the Nanjing Massacre Hall.

As part of this year\’s event, a report on protection of survivors\’ oral histories of the atrocity will be presented and a Sino-U.S. collaborative project on oral history studies will be announced, Zhu announced.

\”This is about expressing sorrow for those perished, and more importantly reminding people to remember history and to cherish peace,\” he said.

Meanwhile, two survivors, 82-year-old Wang Jin and 89-year-old Cen Honggui, will leave for Japan to attend Nanjing Massacre testimony gatherings on invitation from Japanese non-governmental organizations.

Held every year since August, 1994, this activity has seen a total of 47 Chine

via Nanjing Massacre memorials to be held |Society |chinadaily.com.cn.

09/12/2013

Guest post: Senkaku – accelerating the China relocation trade? | beyondbrics

The debate continues on the motivations and risks of China’s decision on November 23 to announce an East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) which critically includes the disputed Senkaku Islands (know in China as Daioyu). There is little dispute that the standoff between China, Japan and the US has the capacity to escalate into something much more dangerous unless US Vice-President Joe Biden’s recent Asia trip is effective in ratcheting down tensions.

Has China miscalculated in terms of the rapid US response of B52 bomber sorties over the disputed Islands or prospective US naval deployment build-up in the region? Or is this the preliminary phase of a much longer-term slow creep by China in fulfilling its ambitions in establishing a more dominant regional role? Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei (all US allies) are – like Japan – enmeshed in arguments with Beijing over relatively minor but potentially strategic bits of maritime real estate. Does the US administration have the willingness to back its allies on all fronts

Others have argued that the new Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping are using nationalist sentiment to distract the Chinese public from the growth slowdown as well as solidify support among the Chinese military. Meanwhile Japan has been busily building up mutual defence and security ties across southeast Asia, and with Australia and India, as a hedge against Beijing. The state visit of the Japanese Emperor to India to has taken on even more significance.

While the geopolitical dynamics remain fluid and uncertain, a more definite consequence of the dispute may well be to accelerate the China relocation macro theme with major implications for FDI flows in the rest of the region. Up until now the primary motivation for foreign companies with large scale manufacturing operations to relocate from China has been the rapid rise in Chinese labour costs and the growing signs of worker shortages. The case was made most effectively by former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin (see Chandra, Lin and Wang (2012)) who suggested that:

industrial upgrading has increased wages and is causing China to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital-and technology-intensive industries. These industries will shed labor and create a huge opportunity for lower wage countries to start a phase of labor-intensive industrialization.

This process, which they called the Leading Dragon Phenomenon, offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income countries where the industrial sector is underdeveloped and investment capital and entrepreneurial skills are leading constraints to manufacturing. They also note that low income countries such can seize the opportunity and resolve the constraints by attracting some of the FDI flowing currently from China, India and Brazil into the manufacturing sectors of other developing countries.

So the relocation of factories as a result of China economic rebalancing is a multi-year structural trend that is likely to be the dominant macro theme for developing economies for the next decade and beyond. But it is becoming more apparent that political risk mitigation in the face of resurgent Chinese regional territorial ambitions and aggressiveness will re-inforce the macroeconomic justification for diversifying away from China. Japanese outward FDI has increased for two years in succession, with 2012 the second highest increase in history ($122.4bn, an increase of 12.5 per cent over the previous year). Japan’s total outward FDI stock exceeded $1tn. However what is more interesting, as illustrated in the diagram below, is that Japan’s FDI flow to ASEAN has grown relative to that towards China.

Even if it’s a remote scenario, what if accidental engagement between Japanese and Chinese fighters in the newly announced ADIZ rapidly escalated into a more serious conflict or even declaration of war? The hundreds of billions of dollars of Japanese investment into factories in China would appear at risk. Even if we exclude the expropriation of factories directly, at the very minimum, the experience of Chinese nationalist protests over the Yasukune shrine visits by Japanese politicians or in the more distant past the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade are clearly risks that policy makers and boards of Japanese multinationals must be increasingly worried about. And, unlike Chinese holdings of US treasuries that could be liquidated reasonably quickly, albeit potentially at the risk of self-destructively causing a meltdown in global financial markets, FDI in factory assets is, by its very nature, immobile. Moreover Japanese managers and workers in China would also be vulnerable. One might argue that there is a risk of a similar level of concern developing in Seoul or Taipei or perhaps even Washington.

via Guest post: Senkaku – accelerating the China relocation trade? | beyondbrics.

Ifty Islam is the managing partner of AT Capital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Ifty.islam@ at-capital.com

08/12/2013

South Korea expands air defense zone to partially overlap China’s | Reuters

China two weeks ago that has sharply raised regional tensions.

Beijing\’s declaration of an air defense identification zone in an area that includes islands at the heart of a territorial dispute with Japan has triggered protests from the United States and its close allies Japan and South Korea.

Announcing the expansion of its own zone to include two territorial islands to the south and a submerged rock also claimed by China, South Korea\’s Defence Ministry said the move would not infringe on neighboring countries\’ sovereignty.

\”We believe this will not significantly impact our relationships with China and with Japan as we try to work for peace and cooperation in Northeast Asia,\” defence ministry head of policy Jang Hyuk told a briefing.

\”We have explained our position to related countries and overall they are in agreement that this move complies with international regulations and is not an excessive measure,\” he said, adding the ministry\’s top priority was to work with neighboring countries to prevent military confrontation.

via South Korea expands air defense zone to partially overlap China’s | Reuters.

01/12/2013

China, India spar over disputed border | Reuters

China on Saturday urged India not to aggravate problems on the border shared by the two nations, a day after the Indian president toured a disputed region and called it an integral part of the country.

China's President Xi Jinping (R) talks with India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (L) during a meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing October 23, 2013. REUTERS/Peng Sun/Pool

The two countries, which fought a brief border war in 1962, only last month signed a pact to ensure that differences on the border do not spark a confrontation.

But Indian President Pranab Mukherjee\’s visit to the state of Arunachal Pradesh in the remote eastern stretch of the Himalayas that China claims as its own provoked a fresh exchange of words.

\”We hope that India will proceed along with China, protecting our broad relationship, and will not take any measures that could complicate the problem, and together we can protect peace and security in the border regions,\” China\’s official news agency, Xinhua, quoted Qin Gang, a spokesman of the country\’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as saying.

\”Currently Sino-India relations are developing favorably and both sides are going through special envoy meetings and amicable discussions to resolve the border dispute between our two countries.\”

Mukherjee was on a routine visit to Arunachal which has been part of the Indian state for decades, and where India has regularly been holding elections. But China has of late grown increasingly assertive and questioned New Delhi\’s claims over the territory, calling it instead South Tibet.

Mukherjee told members of the state\’s legislative assembly it was \”a core stakeholder in India\’s Look East foreign policy\” that intends to link the country\’s northeast with South East Asia.

\”We seek to make our neighbors partners in our development,\” Mukherjee said in Itanagar, the state capital. \”We believe that India\’s future and our own best economic interests are served by closer integration with Asia.\”

China lays claim to more than 90,000 sq km (35,000 sq miles) disputed by New Delhi in the eastern sector of the Himalayas, while India says China occupies 38,000 square km of its territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.

via China, India spar over disputed border | Reuters.

01/12/2013

China claims territories of 23 countries, but only has borders with 14

This article does not give a source ref. However, if it is correct, then together with the new “air defence zone” (https://chindia-alert.org/2013/12/01/china-japan-and-america-face-off-the-economist/), the requirement for Uighur students to demonstrate “approved political views” (https://chindia-alert.org/2013/12/01/xinjiang-college-says-approved-political-views-needed-to-graduate-reuters/) and recent spar with India (https://chindia-alert.org/2013/12/01/china-india-spar-over-disputed-border-reuters/) all point to a new belligerent China. Not good news at all for the world community.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/chinese-tensions/

25/11/2013

Shinzo Abe: China new air defence zone move ‘dangerous’ – BBC News

Japan\’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has described China\’s move to create a new \”air defence identification zone\” over disputed waters as \”dangerous\”.

Islands in the East China Sea, called Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese

China\’s action had \”no validity whatsoever on Japan\”, Mr Abe added.

China has voiced anger at Japanese and US objections to the new air zone, and lodged complaints with their embassies.

The zone covers disputed islands that are claimed and controlled by Japan. China says aircraft entering the zone must obey its rules.

Mr Abe told parliament on Monday that the zone \”can invite an unexpected occurrence and it is a very dangerous thing as well\”.

\”We demand China revoke any measures that could infringe upon the freedom of flight in international airspace,\’\’ he added.

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has called the move a \”destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region\”.

\”This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations,\” Mr Hagel said in a statement.

\”This announcement by the People\’s Republic of China will not in any way change how the United States conducts military operations in the region,\” he added.

via BBC News – Shinzo Abe: China new air defence zone move ‘dangerous’.

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