Archive for ‘Neighbour conflict’

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20/10/2013

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years – StratRisks

We can only hope that the article below is a worst-case scenario that will not actually happen.

From: http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/15914

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See Maria Hsia Chang,Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.

Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

  • the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (ChinaNews.com).
  • The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (必), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why  the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.

PLAN

THE SIX WARS [SURE] TO BE FOUGHT BY CHINA IN THE COMING 50 YEARS

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

…

THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.

…

THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

…

THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.

…

THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

…

THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.

…

Posted in China alert, Defence, Ethnic clash, Foreign invasion, GeoPolitics, History, Military, Neighbour conflict, PLA, Politics, Taiwan, Territorial dispute, war | 2 Comments »

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30/09/2013

India and Pakistan Agree to Take Steps to Ease Tension – WSJ.com

India and Pakistan have agreed to take steps to reduce tension on the disputed part of their border, in a much-anticipated meeting that senior officials said made advances in the tense relations between these nuclear-armed neighbors.

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Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif met in New York on Sunday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The talks went better than expected, officials from both sides said.

A series of deadly events in the weeks leading to the discussions had heightened tensions in the countries’ already-fraught relationship.

Washington believes normalizing relations between India and Pakistan would help stabilize the region, as the hostility between the two countries feeds a detrimental competition for influence in Afghanistan. And Islamabad‘s concern over its eastern border with India prevents it from dealing with the al Qaeda-influenced militant groups that menace its northwest.

“There is clearly a desire from both sides to have a much better relationship,” said India’s national security adviser, Shivshankar Menon, briefing reporters after the meeting. “We have actually achieved a new stage; we do have some understanding on how to move forward.”

Earlier Pakistan Extends Olive Branch to India. Mr. Sharif, who came to power in June and has a history of pursuing peace with India, had asked for the meeting.

For his part, Mr. Singh has a record of defying hawks at home to reach out to Pakistan. But how far he can go is limited by elections his party faces in India next year. Any supposed softness on Pakistan will be exploited by his conservative opponents.

via India and Pakistan Agree to Take Steps to Ease Tension – WSJ.com.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/indian-tensions/

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19/09/2013

Delhi shaped South Asia’s Muslim identity, Pakistani author says

Reuters: “Raza Rumi is based in Lahore, but the public policy specialist and Friday Times editor’s new book is based in another milieu entirely. “Delhi by heart” is a kind of travelogue about a city that is the source of a shared heritage that spans hundreds of years.

By his own admission, it is a “heartfelt account” of how a Pakistani comes to India, an “enemy country”, and discovers that its capital has, in fact, so many things common with Lahore.

“I wanted to write the biography of Darah Shikoh, the great Indian Mughal prince,” Rumi said. “While researching for that, and while visiting Delhi all the time, I felt really it merits a Pakistani version as well because for these five years we have been so much cut off and we have misunderstood each other so much that it is time to sort of build bridges. Hence the book.”

Just two days after the book came out in July, there was fighting on the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir that resulted in the deaths of five Indian soldiers. Relations between the neighbours have since been strained, and there have been reports of cultural and religious exchanges being cancelled.

This backdrop and the past 66 years of separation, mistrust and aggression have forced Pakistan into recasting its history and its heritage in ways that create a blind spot where India used to be, Rumi noted.

“Is this Indian music or Pakistani music? Is it Indian food or Pakistani food?” Rumi said. “For example, the poet Ghalib, the greatest of Urdu poets, is Ghalib an Indian or a Pakistani? It’s very difficult. Amir Khusro, who gave us the Urdu language as we speak (it)… the kind of language that is popular in Bollywood… is he Indian or Pakistani? So Pakistan had a harder task to create an identity and it’s still grappling with that.”

Traveling to Delhi, he said, sharpened this impression. The first thing he noticed, and which reminded him of home, was the azaan, the Muslim call to prayer, which he could hear throughout the city. Then there was the Mughlai food, the qawwali music, the Urdu and Hindi languages with their origin in “Hindustani,” and the shared heritage of Mughal architecture and the common Punjabi character of both cities.

After about a dozen visits to attend various conferences and do research, he sat down with a pile of notes and wrote a book that builds on the shared past and common culture of south Asia. “I think it’s a mix of travelogue and personal narrative with a bit of history thrown in.”

In the beginning, he said, he worried that Delhi is a city that foreigners and Indians have written about at length. He also doubted that anyone back home would be interested in reading about Delhi. He was wrong, he said.

“When I gave the chapters to my father to read, I thought he would object to my whole search for common history and kind of challenging the state narrative of nationalism but, quite interestingly, I found him to be most supportive of the idea …”

There may be differences between the two faiths and countries, but according to Rumi, “through the 1000 years of their shared experiences and interaction, the two did develop a certain composite culture. That composite culture, in many ways, still survives in India.” So much so that despite the political acrimony between the two countries, Rumi sees hope for the future in Pakistan. And Delhi gave him a glimpse of that future.”

via Delhi shaped South Asia’s Muslim identity, Pakistani author says | India Insight.

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27/08/2013

Chinese Hatred of Japan—Real or Government-Created?

The Atlantic: “”On this day in 1945, Japan announced unconditional surrender.” The official account of China Central Television posted this information on Weibo, one of China’s largest social media platforms, and it quickly spread. Three trending posts, with a combined 236,000 retweets, identified the day’s significance and emphasized the number of Chinese who had been wounded and killed during the war — 35 million by China’s official estimates.

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Within an hour, the hashtag “#NeverForgetNationalHumiliation” began to trend, drawing a mix of patriotism, anger, and confusion. User @谭兵林 asked, “How can you not mention to whom the Japanese surrendered?” Others criticized the appropriation of a day thought to be a victory to remember a period of national humiliation: “Many people have told me that today is a day of national humiliation,” wrote @Cepheus的旁座-ELF, “but … isn’t today the day Japan surrendered? How can Japan surrendering be a day of national humiliation?”

How much of this anti-Japanese sentiment is real, and how much manufactured? All three trending articles were posted by state-run media, with some users complaining that “50-cent party” users — those alleged to write pro-government posts for money — played a role in spreading and promoting the anti-Japan comments. Yet much of the reaction was organic. In last year’s round of anti-Japan protests, Chinese authorities sought to promote such protests, but also control them, fearing public anger might spiral out of control. While the government may be seeking to use public sentiment, perhaps as a distraction from domestic issues, Chinese dissatisfaction with Japan is not entirely manufactured; it has sharply increased over the last year, while public support for Japan among Chinese has fallen 12 percentage points over the last five years, according to a recent Pew survey.

In particular, Japanese officials’ annual visit to Yasukuni, the shrine memorializing Japanese soldiers who fought in the Second World War, has angered Chinese. One Weibo user wrote, “When I saw on TV that the number of Japanese who visited the Yasukuni Shrine was double that of last year, I felt myself become suddenly enraged.” Many others joined in, calling for an attack on Japan or a boycott of Japanese goods.

Some version of the Yasukuni Shrine controversy replays itself between China and Japan every year, but tensions between the two countries have been especially raw of late. Last year, violent protests erupted throughout China as Japan announced it was nationalizing a chain of islands, known by Japan as the Senkaku and China as the Diaoyu. A survey conducted annually since 2005 showed that last year, 92.8 percent of Chinese and 90.1 percent of Japanese have “unfavorable feelings” toward the other’s country, with 77.6 percent of Chinese citing the aforementioned dispute as the main motivating factor.

Japan’s recent political moves — including the move to nationalize the islands — have added fuel to an already-burning fire. The Chinese education system has long incorporated teachings about Japanese atrocities during World War II and encouraged negative feelings toward the country. But this anti-Japanese sentiment is not simply an expression of regret for the past. As long-time China watchers Orville Schell and John Delury wrote in their new book, Wealth and Power:

Foreign superiority (as remembered in the Opium Wars, colonization, and Japanese occupation) may have been humiliating and shameful, but it also served as a sharp goad urging Chinese to sacrifice for all the various reform movements and revolutions that came to be launched as a way to remove the stigma of their shame.”

via Chinese Hatred of Japan—Real or Government-Created? – China – The Atlantic.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/historical-perspectives/china-20c-timeline/

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27/08/2013

Is China Building an “Aircraft Carrier in Disguise?”

If true, another step towards military confrontation.

The Diplomat: “Earlier this month a series of pictures posted on Chinese military forums appeared to show that China was building its first indigenous aircraft carrier, prompting much speculation and commentary including from The Diplomat.

China

Now some claim that this narrative might have been mistaken.

According to Japan’s Kyodo News, Kanwa Information Center, a private Canadian think tank, has published a report that claims that the pictures do not show an aircraft carrier. Instead, the Kanwa report—which is based on Ukraine military sources— says the vessel under construction is China’s first amphibious assault ship capable of carrying hovercraft and helicopters.

In other words, if the report is accurate, China is building a Landing Helicopter Assault (LHA)-like ship not completely unlike the Izumo-class helicopter destroyer Japan launched earlier this month, which Chinese analysts referred to as an “aircraft carrier in disguise.”

Kanwa says the vessel is being built at a shipyard on Shanghai’s Changxing Island and could be commissioned as early as 2015. It will reportedly displace 35,000 tons, roughly double what China’s three existing Type 071 amphibious assault ships, which displace between 17,000-20,000 tons, according to Sino-Defense. The same source says the Type 071 ships were built by Shanghai-based Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard. The location of Changxing Island, suggests that Jiangnan Shipyard is constructing the new vessel.

Japan’s Izumo-class helicopter destroyer reportedly displaces between 20,000-25,000-tons.

China’s new LHA will carry four hovercraft and up to 20 helicopters, according to Kyodo News, which cited the Kanawa report.

There’s reason to think the Kanwa report is accurate. Indeed, last November a Chinese admiral told CCTV, China’s official broadcaster, that the PLAN was building a 40,000-ton amphibious assault ship similar to the U.S. Navy’s LHA.”

via Is China Building an “Aircraft Carrier in Disguise?” | Flashpoints | The Diplomat.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/08/21/china-japan-and-indias-asian-arms-race/

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25/08/2013

Japan tourist visits to Beijing halved amid tensions over islands row

SCMP: The number of Japanese tourists visiting Beijing fell by more than half in the first seven months of the year amid a spike in tensions between the countries, the city’s statistical bureau said Sunday.

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Japanese tourist arrivals this year fell to 136,000 up to the end of July, down 53.7 per cent from the same period last year, the bureau said.

The drop follows violent anti-Japanese protests in Beijing and several other Chinese cities in September in response to complaints from the government over Japan’s move to nationalise uninhabited East China Sea islands claimed by China.

Japanese businesses were torched and Japanese-brand cars, most of which are made by Chinese joint venture firms, were smashed and their drivers assaulted.

There were also scattered reports of assaults on Japanese citizens, although none of the attacks were serious.

Tensions remain high between the sides, with their ships conducting regular patrols in waters surrounding the islands, called the Senkakus by Japan and Diaoyu by China. Taiwan also claims the islands and has negotiated an agreement with Tokyo to permit fishing in the area.

The decline in Japanese visitors was part of an overall 13.9 per cent decline in tourist arrivals blamed on the sluggish global economy, as well as a spike in Beijing’s notoriously bad air pollution.

Numbers of tourists from Asian countries fell 25.4 per cent, including a 19.9 per cent fall in visitors from South Korea. Visitors from the Americas fell by just 3.4 per cent.

via Japan tourist visits to Beijing halved amid tensions over islands row | South China Morning Post.

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22/08/2013

China develops revolutionary submarine with high speed of 100 knots

The arm race between China, India and Japan gathers pace. What a shame.

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21/08/2013

China, Japan, and India’s Asian Arms Race

BusinessWeek: “China and Japan managed to get past the Aug. 15 anniversary of the Japanese surrender in World War II without incident. For weeks leading up to the date, the question was, will he or won’t he? Will Shinzo Abe, the conservative prime minister who last year infuriated the Chinese by visiting the Yasukini Shrine in Tokyo, which commemorates Japan’s war dead—including war criminals from World War II—go to the shrine on the anniversary?

Japan's 19,500-ton Izumo helicopter carrier is launched in Yokohama on Aug. 6

Abe has enough on his agenda without provoking another crisis with China, so he decided to stay clear. Three members of his cabinet did go to Yasukini, part of a group of 100 members of Japan’s parliament who prayed at the shrine. While Abe wasn’t one of them, the prime minister did make a gesture to his nationalist supporters, sending a cash offering to the shrine.

Another day, another crisis in the ongoing saga of the dispute between the two Asian powers over uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea. Today, China’s official China Central Television reported the People’s Liberation Army had started 10 days of live-fire military exercises in the waters near the islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku and the Chinese call the Diaoyu. In a highly symbolic move, one ship taking part in the exercises is the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier.

The Liaoning is part of a three-way arms race involving the naval forces of China, Japan, and the other big Asian power, India. With China embroiled in territorial disputes with both Japan and India, all three countries are coming out with bigger and better warships to make sure they hold their own in the region.

For Japan, the big news is a 19,500-ton helicopter carrier called the Izumo, which the government unveiled on Aug. 6. It’s the third such warship in Japan’s self-defense force and the biggest Japanese-made military vessel since the end of World War II. That’s big for Japan but still small compared with U.S. aircraft carriers, which displace 97,000 tons when fully loaded.

Still, the Chinese are not happy about the Izumo’s launch. The helicopter carrier is a “symbol of Japan’s strong wish to return to its time as a military power,” the Global Times wrote the next day.

India, meanwhile, has launched its first aircraft carrier, unveiled on Monday. That’s a challenge to China, the Global Times editorialized. “China should speed up its construction of domestic aircraft carriers,” it said. “The earlier China establishes its own aircraft carrier capabilities, the earlier it will gain the strategic initiative.”

India has tripled military spending over the past 10 years and in February announced more spending, with a 14 percent increase in defense outlays. The border dispute between India and China isn’t as hot as the one between Japan and China, but it involves much more land: India says China is occupying 38,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in Jummu and Kashmir (the much-disputed region in the north of India that is also claimed by Pakistan). China says India is occupying 90,000 square kilometers of Chinese territory in Arunachal Pradesh (a state in northeastern India near Bhutan and Tibet).””

via China, Japan, and India’s Asian Arms Race – Businessweek.

Posted in China alert, Chindia Alert, Diplomacy, Foreign invasion, GeoPolitics, History, India alert, Neighbour conflict, Politics | 2 Comments »

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21/08/2013

China’s Xi “Lurches” to the Left, Promotes Maoist Revival

Meadia: “In a move sure to dismay the people inside and outside China who hoped Xi Jinping would begin a new era of democratic reform, China’s president has “lurched” to the left, as the WSJ reports, promoting a revitalized version of nationalist Maoism across the country. ”Our red nation will never change color,” Xi said during a ceremony at Mao’s old lakeside mansion in Wuhan, declaring that the villa should become a center to educate young people about patriotism and revolution.

“It isn’t just Mr. Xi’s rhetoric that has taken on a Maoist tinge in recent months,” the Journal reports. “He has borrowed from Mao’s tactical playbook, launching a ‘rectification’ campaign to purify the Communist Party, while tightening limits on discussion of ideas such as democracy, rule of law and enforcement of the constitution.”

Xi appears to have capitalized on some uncertainty at the top levels of the Party after the fall of Bo Xilai, a charismatic and popular leader who also led a Maoist revival campaign and became a threat to the stability of the Party leadership. “Many of Mr. Bo’s former supporters and several powerful princelings have thrown their weight behind Mr. Xi’s efforts to establish himself as much a stronger leader than his predecessor,” party insiders told the WSJ.

Xi’s nationalist streak comes as the country prepares for Bo Xilai’s trial and amid an economic downturn that has caused worry among investors and analysts. At the same time, China and other Asian powers are engaged in a dangerous and accelerating game of military one-upmanship. New ships and maritime units are being unveiled from India to the Philippines to Japan and territorial disputes are growing more intense. Across the region, this trend is driven in part by a rising nationalism among citizens—in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, elsewhere—who push their governments into increasingly aggressive and antagonistic positions against the neighbors. China is no exception.”

[Xi Jinping photo courtesy of Shutterstock]

via China’s Xi “Lurches” to the Left, Promotes Maoist Revival | Via Meadia.

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19/08/2013

China summons Japanese ambassador over shrine visit

Reuters: “China summoned Japan’s ambassador on Thursday to lodge a strong complaint after two Japanese cabinet ministers publicly paid their respects at a controversial Tokyo shrine for war dead, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

Anti-Japan protesters carry posters depicting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as they march to the Japanese consulate in Hong Kong August 15, 2013. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

The ministers’ visit to the Yasukuni Shrine “seriously harms the feelings of the people in China and other Asian victim countries”, the ministry said in a statement.

Visits to the shrine by top Japanese politicians outrage China and South Korea because it honors 14 Japanese wartime leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal, along with war dead.

For Koreans, the shrine is a reminder of Japan’s brutal colonial rule from 1910-1945. China also suffered under Japanese occupation before and during World War Two.

Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin summoned Japanese ambassador Masato Kitera for an emergency meeting to lodge “stern representations and express strong opposition and severe condemnation”, the ministry said.

“The issue of the Yasukuni Shrine relates to whether or not Japan can correctly recognize and face up to the history of invasion of the Japanese militarists and whether or not they can respect the feelings of the people of China and the other victim nations in Asia,” the ministry said.”

via China summons Japanese ambassador over shrine visit | Reuters.

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