Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Joint mission will send two unmanned probes into orbit around the closest planet to the sun
The BepiColombo standing in position at a test facility in Spijkenisse. Its mission to Mercury is scheduled for launch on an Ariane 5 from Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana on October 20. Photo: AFP Photo
Final preparations were underway on Friday for the launch of a joint mission by European and Japanese space agencies to send twin probes to Mercury, the closest planet to the sun.
An Ariane 5 rocket is scheduled to lift the unmanned spacecraft into orbit from French Guiana shortly before midnight, the start of a seven-year journey to the solar system’s innermost planet.
Mercury is seen in silhouette, lower third of image, as it transits across the face of the sun. Photo: AFP PHOTO / NASA / BILL INGALLS
The European Space Agency says the €1.3 billion (US$1.5 billion) mission is one of the most challenging in its history. Mercury’s extreme temperatures, the intense gravity pull of the sun and blistering solar radiation make for hellish conditions.
The BepiColombo spacecraft will have to follow an elliptical path that involves a fly-by of Earth, two of Venus and six of Mercury itself so it can slow down sufficiently before arriving at its destination in December 2025.
An Ariane-5 rocket is set for launch at the Guiana Space Centre in Kourou in French Guiana. Photo: Kyodo
Newly developed electrical ion thrusters will help nudge the spacecraft, which was named after Italian scientist Giuseppe “Bepi” Colombo, into the right orbit.
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When it arrives, BepiColombo will release two probes – Bepi and Mio – that will independently investigate the surface and magnetic field of Mercury. The probes are designed to cope with temperatures varying from 430 degrees Celsius (806F) on the side facing the sun, and -180 degrees Celsius (-292F) in Mercury’s shadow.
An Ariane-5 rocket is transported to its launch site at the Guiana Space Centre in Kourou. Photo: Kyodo
Scientists hope to build on the insights gained by Nasa’s Messenger probe, which ended its mission in 2015 after a four-year orbit of Mercury. The only other spacecraft to visit Mercury was Nasa’s Mariner 10 that flew past the planet in the mid-1970s.
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Mercury, which is only slightly larger than Earth’s moon, has a massive iron core about which little is known. Researchers are also hoping to learn more about the formation of the solar system from the data gathered by the BepiColombo mission.
PARIS/BEIJING (Reuters) – French automaker Renault SA (RENA.PA) is ditching its main passenger car business in China following poor sales at the loss-making venture with Dongfeng Motor Group (0489.HK).
A slowdown in Chinese automotive sales, which is expected to worsen this year due to the coronavirus crisis, has heaped pressure on carmakers that were already struggling to establish a big presence in China, the world’s biggest vehicle market.
Renault, which entered the Dongfeng joint venture in 2013 and began producing gas-powered cars under the tie-up in Wuhan three years later, is one of the few global carmakers to exit a major project in China in recent years, however.
The carmaker, which will retain a presence in China with other ventures, including in electric vehicles, is trying more broadly to find cost savings and pull out of businesses where it is struggling to make its mark and turn a profit.
This is part of Renault’s efforts to make the most of its alliance with Japanese partner Nissan (7201.T), and the two are due provide a strategy update by mid-May.
Dongfeng had been anticipating Renault’s potential exit from the Chinese joint venture as long as a year ago, a banking source familiar with the matter said. Sales were under pressure long before the coronavirus crisis walloped demand further, another source with knowledge of the situation said.
The venture sold only 18,607 cars in 2019, far below its annual capacity of 110,000 and reported an operating loss of more than 1.5 billion yuan ($212 million).
Dongfeng, which will take on Renault’s 50% stake in their venture, plans to revamp and upgrade the business’s existing car plants, which will no longer make Renault-branded cars, a spokeswoman for the Chinese automaker said on Tuesday.
Dongfeng will arrange positions for staff at the venture within its wider group operations, she added.
Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
‘NEW CHAPTER’
Renault said it would focus on its light commercial vehicle business with Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (1114.HK). That venture plans to roll out five new models before 2023 and is planning export cars to other markets.
Another focus is electric vehicles, which will be built by its venture with Jiangling Motors Corporation Group.
Renault and Dongfeng also said they would continue to cooperate on “connected vehicles” and work with common partner Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) on new generation engines.
“We are opening a new chapter in China. We will concentrate on electric vehicles and light commercial vehicles, the two main drivers for future clean mobility and more efficiently leverage our relationship with Nissan,” Francois Provost, chairman of the China region for Renault, said in a statement.
That could include relying on Nissan dealers rather than Renault ones in the longer term, a source familiar with the matter said.
Renault and Nissan, which both reported losses for 2019 even before the global pandemic hit, are looking to rebalance a relationship strained by the 2018 arrest and subsequent flight of former alliance supremo Carlos Ghosn.
The ex-boss-turned-fugitive, accused of financial misconduct, denies any wrongdoing.
Other international carmakers have struggled in China too.
In 2018, Japanese automaker Suzuki Motor Corp (7269.T) sold its stake in a venture with Changan Automobile (000625.SZ).
Renault’s French rival PSA (PEUP.PA), meanwhile, is exiting a small joint venture with China’s Chongqing Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) and said in February it had suffered 700 million euros in losses last year in the country.
TOKYO (Reuters) – Uncertainty over Japan’s economic outlook is “extremely high” as the coronavirus pandemic hits output and consumption, central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, stressing his readiness to take additional monetary steps to prevent a deep recession.
While aggressive central bank actions across the globe have eased financial market tensions somewhat, corporate funding strains were worsening, Kuroda told a quarterly meeting of the Bank of Japan’s regional branch managers on Thursday.
“The spread of the coronavirus is having a severe impact on Japan’s economy through declines in exports, output, demand from overseas tourists and private consumption,” he said.
Japan recorded 503 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday – its biggest daily increase since the start of the pandemic – as a state of emergency took effect giving governors stronger legal authority to urge people to stay home and businesses to close.
In contrast to stringent lockdowns in some countries, mandating fines and arrests for non-compliance, enforcement will rely more on peer pressure and a deep-rooted Japanese tradition of respect for authority.
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The balancing act underscores the difficulty authorities have in trying to contain the outbreak without imposing a mandatory lockdown that could deal a major blow to an economy already struggling to cope with the virus outbreak.
Hideaki Omura, the governor of the central Japan prefecture of Aichi, said he would declare a state of emergency for his prefecture on Friday.
Omura said Aichi, which includes the city of Nagoya and hosts Toyota Motor Corp, was talking with the central government about being included in the national state of emergency as well, but felt he could not wait any longer to restrict movement.
“Looking at things the past week and watching the situation – the rise in patients, the number without any traceable cause – we judged that it was a very dangerous situation and wanted to make preparations,” he told a news conference.
Even with less stringent restrictions compared with other countries, analysts polled by Reuters expect Japan to slip into a deep recession this year as the virus outbreak wreaks havoc on business and daily life.
Shares of Oriental Land Co (4661.T) fell on Thursday after the operator of Tokyo Disneyland said it would keep the amusement park shut until mid-May.
Entertainment facility operator Uchiyama Holdings (6059.T) said it was closing 43 karaoke shops and 11 restaurants until May 6.
“For the time being, we won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps if needed, with a close eye on developments regarding the coronavirus outbreak,” Kuroda said.
Kuroda’s remarks highlight the strong concern policymakers have over the outlook for Japan’s economy and how companies continue to struggle to generate cash, despite government and central bank promises to flood the economy with funds.
At its policy meeting later this month, the BOJ is likely to make a rare projection that the world’s third-largest economy will shrink this year, sources have told Reuters.
The BOJ eased monetary policy in March by pledging to boost purchases of assets ranging from government bonds, commercial paper, corporate bonds and trust funds investing in stocks.
The government also rolled out a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package to soften the economic blow.
Image copyright HAN ZHUImage caption Choosing an electric car was an easy decision for Shenzhen resident Han Zhu
Han Zhu is on a mission to go green. The 29-year-old data analyst wants her next car to be electric. But her reasons for buying an electric vehicle are in part practical.
In the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, government restrictions on the number of petrol cars sold each year mean she would have to enter a lottery or auction to be able to buy a petrol vehicle.
“There is a possibility you may never get it. With the electric vehicle green licence, you don’t have to wait in line,” she says.
Shenzhen has become the showpiece capital for the Chinese electric dream. In 2017 it became the first city in the world to introduce a fleet of electric buses. A year later, the government rolled out a plan to replace city taxis with electric cars.
“In Shenzhen, in almost every residential building there are two charging units. One out of 10 cars on the street are Teslas,” she says. “In China if the policy leads in one direction, technology and money goes in that direction too,” she says.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China has the world’s biggest market for electric vehicles
In less than a decade China’s new electric vehicle market has become the largest in the world. In 2018 more than a million electric vehicles were sold in China, more than three times the number sold in the US.
Beijing invested an estimated $50bn (£43bn) in the industry, hoping that today’s dominance of the electric vehicle market would lead to global automobile supremacy tomorrow.
And thus far the policy has been working. Over the last three years the number of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has tripled, with more than 400 registered nationwide.
But that breakneck expansion alarmed the government. Last year it decided to put the brakes on by withdrawing approximately half of its financial incentives for buyers.
A slump in sales quickly followed, in the last quarter of 2019 sales for electric vehicles plummeted.
Now the coronavirus has supplied a second punch.
Manufacturers have been forced to halt production lines and close dealerships in a bid to stop the spread of virus.
Overall auto sales in plunged 79% in February compared with the same month in 2019, according to figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) fell for the eighth month in a row.
“China’s auto market was already reeling from a large drop in demand in 2019. In 2020 no carmaker has been immune to the effects of the coronavirus. That includes everyone from the oldest joint ventures producing internal combustion engine SUVs to the most innovative upstarts making connected electric vehicles,” says Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“The vast majority [of electric car makers] will not survive. But how long they survive and whether industry consolidation occurs through lots of mergers or bankruptcies will depend on the willingness of the government.”
Image copyright NIOImage caption The NIO EP9 is one of the fastest electric cars in the world
After listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018 and raising billions of dollars, NIO is perhaps the highest-profile Chinese maker of electric cars.
But in the five years since it was founded it has been beset by problems and has burned through hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2019 the company cut 2,000 jobs on the back of falling revenues. In February it announced it had signed a tentative agreement with a local government that has pledged to fund the company.
“China is a huge market growing at an immense pace. We will adjust and adapt to the market condition,” said an NIO spokesperson.
And it’s not just the car makers. China has some giant makers of components, such as batteries.
In 2018 CATL, a Chinese electric battery maker, became the official supplier of BMW’s electric cars.
Last month Tesla announced it would enter into an agreement with the company to supply batteries for Tesla’s newly built Shanghai mega-plant, capable of producing 500,000 vehicles a year.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China’s BYD is the one of the world’s biggest makers of electric vehicles
But despite that apparent success, analysts have their doubts.
“Chinese auto and battery technology is still not world-class. CATL and BYD are strong battery makers, but they are still somewhat behind technologically from their South Korean and Japanese counterparts. And Chinese automakers are still second-class producers even in their own country and they have barely any sales outside China,” says Mr Kennedy.
For car buyers, that question of quality hangs over China’s electric car makers.
Yi Zhi Yong, a middle-aged entrepreneur, drives a hybrid car made by Chinese manufacturer BYD. Backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett, the company was the third-largest battery-only electric car producer in the world in 2019, according to research by EV-volumes.com. Tesla sold the most, followed by another Chinese firm, BAIC.
He didn’t buy a pure electric vehicle because he is not confident about the quality.
“The quality of domestic pure electric vehicles is not good at the moment,” he says. “No domestic pure electric vehicle is worth buying yet.”
But he feels the progress made by China is a source of national pride. “In the 1990s we couldn’t imagine that China could build cars that can compete with the Japanese,” he says.
Back in Shenzhen, Han Zhu says the rolling back of government subsidies won’t put her off buying an electric vehicle. But rather than buying a Chinese marque, she has her eye on a Tesla.
“I think that they are totally different. I was super excited about Tesla but not other electric cars,” she says.
Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe (R, front) meets with Yang Jiechi (L, front), a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, in Tokyo, Japan, Feb. 28, 2020. (Xinhua/Gang Ye)
TOKYO, Feb. 28 (Xinhua) — China and Japan agreed on Friday to step up public health cooperation to contain the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.
The pledge was made during a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee.
During the meeting, Yang said China and Japan assisted each other in the fight against COVID-19 and worked together to overcome the difficulties, thus deepening the friendship between the two countries.
China sincerely thanks Japan for its precious support, and is willing to continue providing support and help for Japan’s fight against the epidemic, strengthen bilateral and multilateral medical and health cooperation, so as to jointly safeguard the health and wellbeing of the peoples of the two countries and the world, he said.
Yang said the China-Japan relations have maintained a sound momentum of development. He noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Abe held two successful meetings last year, leading efforts in building China-Japan relations in line with the requirements of the new era.
China is ready to work with Japan to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, respect each other, seek common ground while reserving differences, and work together to build a new pattern of bilateral relations featuring joint cooperation, win-win and mutual benefit, said Yang.
Xi’s upcoming state visit to Japan is of great significance and China is ready to maintain close communication with Japan and make preparations for the visit, he said.
China firmly supports Japan in successfully hosting the Tokyo Olympic Games, he added.
For his part, Abe said Xi’s upcoming state visit to Japan this year is of great importance and Japan will make careful preparations to ensure the success and fruitful results of the visit.
The peoples of Japan and China have shown friendly feelings in their joint fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, Abe said.
He said Japan speaks highly of China’s positive achievements in the fight against the virus and is ready to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with China in information sharing and epidemic prevention and control, and send a positive signal to the international community of jointly tackling the challenges to global public health security.
Also on Friday Yang attended the eighth China-Japan high-level political dialogue with head of Japan’s national security council Shigeru Kitamura and met with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.
Cooperation on ‘soft’ issues like public health can provide an ‘opportunity for improvement’ in the nations’ broader relationship, international affairs expert says
Foreign ministers agree to do all they can to ensure Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visits to east Asian neighbours go ahead later this year
South Korea on Thursday reported 505 new coronavirus cases, its largest increase yet. Photo: AP
has created a fresh challenge to Beijing’s delicate relationship with its northeast Asian neighbours, but experts say the unprecedented public health crisis could draw them closer, at least for now.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held separate conversations with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts on Wednesday as Beijing scrambles to deal with the growing risk of imported infections from the two countries.
In a sign of the “strong momentum at the leadership level on both sides”, Wang and Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi agreed to ensure Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Japan later this year goes ahead as planned, despite mounting fears the virus outbreak will become a pandemic.
China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that Yang Jiechi, Wang’s predecessor and Xi’s top aide on foreign affairs, would visit Japan on Friday. His trip is expected to pave the way for Xi’s high stakes visit in the spring, observers said.
But Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, an international affairs expert at Temple University in Tokyo, said that if the outbreak did not subside in the next few weeks, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government would come under intense pressure to delay the visit.
“Despite reassuring official pronouncements, no one would be surprised if the visit was postponed to a later date,” he said. “With an already declining approval rate, the Abe administration would be hard-pressed to go ahead with the summit.”
During her phone call with Wang, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha urged China to refrain from carrying out what she described as “excessive” restrictions and forcible quarantine measures against visitors from her country, the Yonhap news agency reported.
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on Thursday reported 505 new coronavirus cases – its largest increase yet and the first time any country has confirmed more daily cases than China. The outbreak has now spread to more than 30 countries and killed more than 2,800 people.
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In the cities of Qingdao and Weihai in east China’s Shandong province – both of which are home to large South Korean and Japanese communities – local authorities have begun to quarantine arrivals from the two countries, while similar measures targeting South Koreans in particular have been introduced in Shenyang and Nanjing.
This is the first time China, where the coronavirus originated and which earlier criticised other nations for overreacting to the outbreak, has introduced country-specific measures in the name of disease control.
The move sparked fierce criticism in South Korea, with more than 750,000 people signing an online petition calling for a ban on Chinese visitors.
The foreign ministry in Seoul said that about 40 nations and regions had imposed some sort of restrictions on South Korean visitors.
Both South Korea and Japan – which were among the first to offer support and aid to China when the epidemic took hold – have imposed only partial restrictions on Chinese travellers, mostly those from Hubei, the province at the centre of the contagion.
Wang again thanked South Korea for its support and defended China’s control measures, saying they were necessary to reduce the cross-border movement of people and restrict the spread of the disease, China’s foreign ministry said.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Photo: EPA-EFE
Yonhap said both Wang and Kang also agreed that Xi’s proposed trip to South Korea in the first half of the year would proceed as planned.
Chinese experts said the coronavirus had deepened distrust and antagonism towards China in both countries, with many South Koreans and Japanese blaming China for the spread of the disease.
Li Wen, an expert from the China Institute of International Studies, said the coronavirus crisis had seen the rise of the “China threat” in South Korea, with its government under enormous pressure to get tough on its giant neighbour.
According to Yonhap, Kang urged South Korean diplomats in China earlier this month to help minimise any negative impact the epidemic might have had on relations between the two countries.
Hardy-Chartrand said relations between China and South Korea remained tense because of Seoul’s deployment of the American-madeTHAAD missile defence system, which in turn led to Beijing introducing unofficial sanctions that caused resentment among South Koreans.
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But the latest spat over the control measures was unlikely to be a major obstacle to regional relations, he said.
“Overall, cooperation on so-called soft issues like public health, as we are witnessing at the moment, can provide an opportunity for further improvement in the broader relationship, at least in the short term,” he said.
China-Japan relations might also benefit from closer cooperation on disease control given uncertainty in the region over the US-China trade war, the North Korean denuclearisation impasse, the United States’ commitment to its allies, and the coronavirus outbreak, he said.
“I am less sanguine about the mid- to long-term prospects for Sino-Japanese relations, given that the sources of the tensions that we saw from 2010 to 2017, namely the East China Sea territorial dispute and other historical issues, remain wholly unresolved,” he said.
According to a Pew study in December, 85 per cent of Japanese have an unfavourable view of China, the highest among 34 countries surveyed, while 63 per cent of South Koreans see China negatively.
SEOUL/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – South Korea raised its disease alert to the highest level on Sunday after a surge in coronavirus infections and two more deaths, while China state media warned the outbreak there had yet to reach a turning point despite some signs of easing.
South Korea’s president said he was putting the country on “red alert” due to the rapid rise in new cases, which are largely being traced back to church services. Health officials reported 169 new infections, bringing the total to 602, having doubled from Friday to Saturday.
The escalation in the alert level allows the government to send extra resources to Daegu city and Cheongdo county, which were designated “special care zones” on Friday.
South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said it also enables the government to forcibly prevent public activities and order the temporary closure of schools, though the government gave no immediate details on what steps could be taken.
In China, the health commission confirmed 648 new infections – higher than a day earlier – but only 18 were outside of Hubei province, the lowest number outside of the epicenter since authorities started publishing data a month ago and locked down large parts of the country.
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But the number of cases continued to climb elsewhere.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe instructed government agencies on Sunday to urgently prepare medical provisions and draft a comprehensive plan to curb the spread of the virus, after it reported 27 more cases a day earlier.
The U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory level one notch for South Korea and Japan to Level 2 on a scale of 1 to 4.
Concern about the reach and rapid spread of coronavirus also grew in Europe and the Middle East.
Cases in Italy, Europe’s worst hit country, more than quadrupled to 79 on Saturday, with two deaths.
Iran reported a total of 43 infections, with eight deaths – all since Tuesday – forcing some of its neighbors to announce travel and immigration curbs.
The World Health Organization on Saturday stressed that the number of cases outside of China was still relatively few, but it was worried by the detection of infections without a clear link to China.
The disease has spread to some 26 countries and territories outside China, killing more than a dozen people, according to a Reuters tally. It has been fatal in 2% of reported cases, with the elderly and ill the most vulnerable, according to the WHO.
The potential economic impact of coronavirus was prominent at a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Riyadh, at which the International Monetary Fund chief said China’s 2020 growth would likely be lower at 5.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from its January outlook, with 0.1 percentage points shaved from global growth.
The last time South Korea raised the alert to the highest was 11 years ago during the Influenza A or H1N1 outbreak.
Many of South Korea’s new cases were linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus congregation in Daegu after a 61-year-old woman known as “Patient 31” tested positive for the virus last week. The woman had no recent record of overseas travel.
Catholic churches in Daegu and Gwangju have suspended mass and other gatherings, while churches elsewhere saw declines in attendance on Sunday, especially among the elderly.
“If the situation gets worse, I think we’ll need to take more measures. Currently, we’re limiting personal gatherings within the church except for Mass,” said Song Gi-young, 53, wearing a face mask at church.
Heo Young-moo, 88, expressed frustration.
“Devotees shouldn’t go to any risky places … Hasn’t it become so widespread because those people didn’t get checked?”,” he said.
Outside of the church was a sign that said: “All Shincheonji followers are strictly prohibited from entering”.
The foreign ministry said South Koreans aboard a plane to Israel had been denied entry there on Saturday due to concerns about the virus spread.
China said the number of new deaths on Saturday from COVID-19, as the disease caused by the virus is known, was 97, all but one of which were in Hubei.
Eighty-two of those were in the provincial capital Wuhan, where Xinhua news agency said nucleic tests were being carried out on the backlog of cases to try to contain the spread.
In total, China has reported 76,936 cases, and 2,442 deaths. The WHO says the virus is severe or critical in only a fifth of infected patients, and mild in the rest.
Graphic: Reuters graphics on the new coronavirus here
NOT OVER YET
Beijing, Zhejiang, Sichuan had no new infections on Feb. 22 for the first time since the outbreak was detected. There were signs of street life in Shanghai, with some cafes serving take-out food and families wearing masks walking their dogs.
State run television on Sunday urged people to avoid complacency, drawing attention to people gathering in public areas and tourist spots without wearing masks.
Analysts have been closely watching out for any signs of a secondary wave of infections as transport restrictions are eased and many migrant workers return to factories and offices. Business activity in the world’s second-biggest economy is only gradually returning to normal after widespread disruptions.
Japan’s health minister apologized on Saturday after a woman who was allowed to leave the coronavirus-struck Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive despite having underwent quarantine.
At least 623 cases have been reported on the vessel, the biggest outbreak outside China, involving more than a dozen nationalities.
In Italy, schools and universities were closed and some soccer matches postponed in Lombardy and Veneto, the country’s industrial heartland.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq have travel and immigration curbs on Iran, while Oman on Sunday urged its citizens to steer clear of countries with high infection rates and said arrivals from those nations would be quarantined.
The Eyes of Darkness features a Chinese military lab in Wuhan that creates a virus as a bioweapon; civilians soon become sick after accidentally contracting it
In fact, the one lab in China able to handle the deadliest viruses is in Wuhan and helped sequence the novel coronavirus the world is currently battling
The Eyes of Darkness, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet?
In The Eyes of Darkness, a grieving mother, Christina Evans, sets out to discover whether her son Danny died on a camping trip or if – as suspicious messages suggest – he is still alive. She eventually tracks him down to a military facility where he is being held after being accidentally contaminated with man-made microorganisms created at the research centre in Wuhan.
If that made the hair on the back of your neck stand up, read this passage from the book: “It was around that time that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen moved to the United States while carrying a floppy disk of data from China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon of the past decade. They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratory just outside the city of Wuhan.”
In another strange coincidence, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses China’s only level four biosafety laboratory, the highest-level classification of labs that study the deadliest viruses, is just 32km from the epicentre of the current coronavirus outbreak.
The opening of the maximum-security lab was covered in a 2017 story in the journal Nature, which warned of safety risks in a culture where hierarchy trumps an open culture.
Koontz has written more than 80 novels and 74 works of short fiction. Photo: Douglas Sonders
Fringe conspiracy theories that the coronavirus involved in the current outbreak appears to be man-made and likely escaped from the Wuhan virology lab have been circulated, but have been widely debunked. In fact the lab was one of the first to sequence the coronavirus.
In Koontz’s thriller, the virus is considered the “perfect weapon” because it only affects humans and, since it cannot survive outside the human body for longer than a minute, it does not demand expensive decontamination once a population is wiped out, allowing the victors to roll in and claim a conquered territory.
It’s no exaggeration to call Koontz a prolific writer. His first book, Star Quest, was published in 1968 and he has been churning out suspense fiction at a phenomenal rate since with more than 80 novels and 74 works of short fiction under his belt. The 74-year-old, a devout Catholic, lives in California with his wife. But what are the odds of him so closely predicting the future?
Albert Wan, who runs the Bleak House Books store in San Po Kong, says Wuhan has historically been the site of numerous scientific research facilities, including ones dealing with microbiology and virology. “Smart, savvy writers like Koontz would have known all this and used this bit of factual information to craft a story that is both convincing and unsettling. Hence the Wuhan-400,” says Wan.
British writer Paul French, who specialises in books about China, says many of the elements around viruses in China relate back to the second world war, which may have been a factor in Koontz’s thinking.
The Eyes of Darkness, by Koontz.
“The Japanese definitely did do chemical weapons research in China, which we mostly associate with Unit 731 in Harbin and northern China. But they also stored chemical weapons in Wuhan – which Japan admitted,” says French.
Publisher Pete Spurrier, who runs Hong Kong publishing house Blacksmith Books, muses that for a fiction writer mapping out a thriller about a virus outbreak set in China, Wuhan is a good choice.
“It’s on the Yangtze River that goes east-west; it’s on the high-speed rail [line] that goes north-south; it’s right at the crossroads of transport networks in the centre of the country. Where better to start a fictional epidemic, or indeed a real one?” says Spurrier. (Spurrier works part-time as a subeditor for the Post.)
Albert Wan runs the Bleak House Books store in San Po Kong, Hong Kong.
Hong Kong crime author Chan Ho-kei believes that this kind of “fiction-prophecy” is not uncommon.
“If you look really hard, I bet you can spot prophecies for almost all events. It makes me think about the ‘infinite monkey’ theorem,” he says, referring to the theory that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text.
“The probability is low, but not impossible.”
British writer Paul French.
Chan points to the 1898 novella Futility, which told the story of a huge ocean liner that sank in the North Atlantic after striking an iceberg. Many uncanny similarities were noted between the fictional ship – called Titan – and the real-life passenger ship RMS Titanic, which sank 14 years later. Following the sinking of the Titanic, the book was reissued with some changes, particularly in the ship’s gross tonnage.
“Fiction writers always try to imagine what the reality would be, so it’s very likely to write something like a prediction. Of course, it’s bizarre when the details collide, but I think it’s just a matter of mathematics,” says Chan.
Many of Koontz’s books have been adapted for television or the big screen, but The Eyes of Darkness never achieved such glory. This bizarre coincidence will thrust it into the spotlight and may see sales of this otherwise forgotten thriller jump.
Hong Kong crime author Chan Ho-kei.
Amazon is currently offering it on Kindle for just US$1. Perhaps, like Futility, it will also be reissued with some updates to make it really echo the current outbreak.
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China reported on Wednesday its smallest number of coronavirus cases since January, lending weight to a prediction by its top medical adviser for the outbreak to end by April, but a global infectious diseases expert warned of the spread elsewhere.
Financial markets took heart from the outlook of the Chinese official, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who said on Tuesday the number of new cases was falling in some provinces, and forecast the epidemic would peak this month, even as the death toll in China rose to more than 1,100 people.
World stocks, which had seen rounds of sell-offs over the virus, surged to record highs on hopes of a peak in cases. The Dow industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs, and Asian shares nudged higher on Wednesday.
But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the epidemic poses a global threat akin to terrorism and one expert coordinating its response said while the outbreak may be peaking at its epicentre in China, it was likely to spread elsewhere in the world, where it had just begun.
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“It has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak,” the official, Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore.
“In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.”
Singapore has reported 47 cases and worry about the spread is growing. Its biggest bank, DBS (DBSM.SI), evacuated 300 staff from its head office on Wednesday after a confirmed coronavirus case in the building.
Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories around the world, but only two people have died outside mainland China – one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday the world had to “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one” and the first vaccine was 18 months away.
In China, total infections have hit 44,653, health officials said, including 2,015 new confirmed cases on Tuesday. That was the lowest daily rise in new cases since Jan. 30.
The number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday.
But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the figures are, after the government last week amended guidelines on the classification of cases.
‘STAY HOPEFUL’
The biggest cluster of cases outside China is aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s port of Yokohama, with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said 39 more people had tested positive for the virus, taking the total to 175.
One of the new cases was a quarantine officer.
Thailand said it was barring passengers from another cruise ship, MS Westerdam, from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away amid fears of the coronavirus, despite no confirmed infections on board.
“We try to stay hopeful,” American passenger Angela Jones told Reuters in a video recording. “But each day, that becomes a little bit more difficult, when country after country rejects us.”
Echoing the comparison with the fight against terrorism, China’s state news agency Xinhua said late on Tuesday the epidemic was a “battle that has no gunpowder smoke but must be won”.
The epidemic was a big test of China’s governance and capabilities and some officials were still “dropping the ball” in places where it was most severe, it said, adding: “This is a wake-up call.”
The government of Hubei, the central province at the outbreak’s epicentre, dismissed the provincial health commission’s Communist Party boss, state media said on Tuesday, amid mounting public anger over the crisis.
China’s censors had allowed criticism of local officials but have begun cracking down on reporting of the outbreak, issuing reprimands to tech firms that gave free rein to online speech, Chinese journalists said.
The pathogen has been named COVID-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease and 19 for the year it emerged. It is suspected to have come from a market that illegally traded wildlife in Hubei’s capital of Wuhan in December.
The city of 11 million people remains under virtual lockdown as part of China’s unprecedented measures to seal infected regions and limit transmission routes.
Travel restrictions that have paralysed the world’s second-biggest economy have left Wuhan and other Chinese cities resembling ghost towns.
Even if the epidemic ends soon, it has taken a toll of China’s economy, with companies laying off workers and needing loans running into billions of dollars to stay afloat. Supply chains for makers of items from cars to smartphones have broken down.
ANZ Bank said China’s first-quarter growth would probably slow to 3.2% to 4.0%, down from a projection of 5.0%.
The likely slowdown in China could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off both euro zone and British growth this year, credit rating agency S&P Global estimated.
Summit between Chinese, South Korean and Japanese leaders could yield results for future of Korean peninsula, analyst says
North Korea has promised an unwelcome “Christmas present” if the US does not show the “right attitude” for talks. Photo: KCNA
Chinese President Xi Jinping has again stressed the need for tensions on the Korean peninsula to be resolved through dialogue, as the deadline looms in North Korea’s threat to give the United States an unwelcome “Christmas gift”
.
With just over a week to go until Pyongyang’s year-end deadline for Washington to change what it says a policy of hostility, Xi held separate talks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Beijing on Monday.
Moon and Abe will also join Chinese Premier Li Keqiang for a trilateral summit in Chengdu, Sichuan province, on Tuesday.
The first trilateral leadership talks took place in 2008, but were not held in 2013 and 2014, or in 2016 and 2017.
Xi said China and South Korea “both insist on maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula, and advocate solving problems through dialogue and consultation”, state news agency Xinhua reported on Monday.
“China supports South Korea in continuing to improve its relationship with
and injecting impetus for the Korean peninsula peace talks,” the report said.
Moon said the suspension of talks between the US and North Korea and heightened tensions along the peninsula “are not beneficial to both our countries and North Korea”, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.
Moon also said that China had played an “important role” in efforts for the denuclearise the peninsula, the report said.
North Korea has signalled impatience over the stalled talks with the US, and the fading hopes for an end to Washington’s economic sanctions.
In April, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that he would “wait” until the end of the year to decide whether the US had the “right attitude” to allow a resumption of negotiations, but no signs of further talks have emerged.
Then earlier this month Pyongyang warned that Washington would receive a “Christmas gift”, and US actions would determine whether the present would be good or bad.
In an apparent sign of frustration with the US, North Korean news agency KCNA reported on Sunday that Kim held a meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea to “bolster the overall armed forces of the country” to deal with the “the fast-changing situation”.
The US imposed crippling sanctions on North Korea’s economy in 2017, though many countries, including China, South Korea and Japan, have also tightened measures against the North.
South Korea and Japan both scaled back people-to-people links in 2016, China banned coal exports to the North in 2017. Earlier this year, Trump thanked China and Russia for maintaining sanctions against Pyongyang.
As diplomats make last-ditch attempts to stop renewed confrontation, US special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun shuttled around the region last week, meeting senior officials in China, South Korea and Japan. Biegun urged North Korea to return to negotiations, and said the US “does not have a deadline” for talks.
China and Russia also proposed last week that the United Nations Security Council
Xi’s meeting with Moon also comes as Beijing tries to mend ties with Seoul to prevent neighbouring nations from getting closer to Washington.
Relations between China and South Korea deteriorated in 2017 after Seoul deployed a US-led missile defence system known as THAAD, which Beijing deemed as a security threat to its own territory.
On Monday, both Xi and Moon said in their meeting that they looked forward to improving relations between their countries.
“We have been friends and partners that have continued close cooperation,” Xi said. “We have a wide range of common understandings in various fields, including on further developing bilateral relations, facilitating regional peace, stability and prosperity, and defending multilateralism and a free trade system.”
Sun Xingjie, a North Korea specialist at Jilin University, said the US signal was “very clear” in Beigun’s comments.
“They still want to continue discussions,” he said.
Sun also said the talks in Chengdu on Tuesday would likely play an important role in the future of resolving problems on the Korean peninsula.
“After returning to the platform these last couple years, I believe this will become an important, normalised place for discussions. Whatever problems they run into, the platform should continue to move forward,” Sun said.
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