Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
China’s leadership has made it clear to its people that the world will become more dangerous and they must be prepared for hard times
Beijing’s relatively small stimulus response to Covid-19 suggests it wants to save its economic policy ammunition for a bigger battle
China opted not to set a GDP target for 2020. Photo: Xinhua
Beijing’s decision not to set an annual GDP target for 2020 – for the first time since 2002 – is a sign it is putting stability ahead of growth as part of its preparations for an escalating conflict with the United States.
Economic development has always been the central theme for Beijing since it established diplomatic relations with the US in 1979. But this year it has given priority to job creation and tackling poverty. The coronavirus outbreak might appear to have been the reason for the shift, but the underlying factor is the tension with the US.
Covid-19 offered a preview of what a decoupling of China and US might look like: aircraft grounded, cargo flows disrupted, value chains broken, goodwill and cooperation lost, blame games started.
Both countries have suffered heavy human and economic losses from the coronavirus, yet that did not inspire them to work together. Instead, hostility and rivalry has thrived, and neither wants to blink first.
The Chinese leadership has made it clear to its people that the world will become more dangerous and they must be prepared for hard times. As such, the government is saving its economic policy ammunition.
While the stimulus plans introduced in the US, Germany, Japan and France exceed 10 per cent of their national GDP and interest rates have been cut to the bone, Beijing stopped at just 1 trillion yuan (US$140 billion) worth of special treasury bonds and 1.6 trillion yuan of additional local government bonds. In total, about 2.6 per cent of GDP.
Interest rates in China – 2.7 per cent on 10-year bonds – are some of the highest among major economies.
China’s 6.6 per cent defence spending boost lowest in three decades
23 May 2020
China’s budget fiscal deficit has increased to 3.6 per cent of GDP for 2020, but the larger deficit is mainly from tax and fee cuts instead of increased fiscal expenses, except for an increased military spending.
Beijing is calling on provincial and local authorities to tighten their belts, which is unusual for a government that has huge assets and can increase spending at any time through quantitative easing.
So why is the government, which is known for intervening in the economy, being so restrained?
It is bracing itself for a perceived period of turbulence and hardship as its relationship with the US turns sour. It is putting jobs and social stability on top of its agenda, instead of growth.
Beijing is refraining from excessive spending, eliminating sources of potential instability, making appeals to the most vulnerable social groups, and saving its power for a bigger test.
Against that backdrop, the National People’s Congress passed the national security legislation on Hong Kong. Beijing knew the bill would anger the US, but did it anyway.
Hong Kong is known as China’s gateway to the international capital market and the largest offshore yuan market, but Beijing is ready to trade losses on the financial and economic front for potential gain on a fortified national security fence.
All this points to the suggestion that Beijing is preparing for the possibility of decoupling from the US, even if it doesn’t necessarily want to.
The threat of a new Cold War is clouding the world. The theme of life for one or two generations of people on both sides of the Pacific may shift from growth and prosperity to struggle and confrontation.
China and the US have yet to collide totally, but that moment is drawing near.
China will not set an economic growth goal for this year as it deals with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
It is the first time Beijing has not had a gross domestic product (GDP) target since 1990 when records began.
The announcement was made by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of the country’s annual parliament meeting.
The world’s second largest economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter from a year ago as lockdowns paralysed businesses.
“This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment,” Premier Li said.
The country’s leadership has promised to boost economic support measures amid growing concerns that rising unemployment could threaten social stability.
The move comes as tensions between Beijing and Washington are becoming increasingly strained over the coronavirus pandemic, trade and Hong Kong.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump stepped up his attacks on China, suggesting that the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.”
It came as Mr Trump and other Republicans have escalated their criticism of Beijing’s handling of the early stages of the outbreak.
Also on Thursday, China announced plans to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong after last year’s pro-democracy protests.
The announcement was met with a warning from Mr Trump that the US would react “very strongly” against any attempt to gain more control over the former British colony.
Separately, two US senators have proposed legislation to punish Chinese entities involved in enforcing the planned new laws and penalise banks that do business with them.
Earlier this week, the US Senate unanimously passed a proposal to delist Chinese companies from American stock exchanges if they fail to comply with US financial reporting standards.
US-listed Chinese companies have come under increasing scrutiny in recent weeks after Luckin Coffee revealed that an internal investigation found hundreds of millions of dollars of its sales last year were “fabricated”.
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean and Chinese officials on Tuesday cast doubt on reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was ill after media outlets said he had undergone a cardiovascular procedure and was in “grave danger”.
Daily NK, a Seoul-based speciality website, reported late on Monday, citing one unnamed source in North Korea, that Kim was recovering after undergoing the procedure on April 12. The North Korean leader is believed to be about 36.
CNN cited a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the matter as saying Washington was “monitoring intelligence” that Kim was in grave danger after surgery. Bloomberg quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying the White House was told that Kim took a turn for the worse after the surgery.
However, two South Korean government officials rejected the CNN report without elaborating on whether Kim had undergone surgery. The presidential Blue House said there were no unusual signs coming from the reclusive, nuclear-capable state.
Kim is the unquestioned leader of North Korea and the sole commander of its nuclear arsenal. He has no clear successor and any instability in the country could be a major international risk.
RELATED COVERAGE
Factbox: Questions hang over North Korea succession amid reports on Kim health
The state KCNA news agency gave no indication of the whereabouts of Kim in routine dispatches on Tuesday, but said he had sent birthday gifts to prominent citizens.
An official at the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, which deals with North Korea, told Reuters the source did not believe Kim was critically ill. China is North Korea’s only major ally.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Beijing was aware of reports about the health of Kim, but said it does not know their source, without commenting on whether it has any information about the situation.
South Korean shares exposed to North Korea tumbled and the Korean won fell on the reports. The won traded down more than 1% against the dollar even as South Korean government sources said Kim was not gravely ill.
U.S. stock futures were trading 0.5% lower, but it was not clear how much of that weakness was owing to the collapse in U.S. oil prices and consequent concerns over global demand.
Daily NK said Kim had been admitted to hospital on April 12, just hours before the cardiovascular procedure, as his health had deteriorated since August due to heavy smoking, obesity and overwork.
It said he was now receiving treatment at a villa in the Mount Myohyang resort north of the capital Pyongyang.
“My understanding is that he had been struggling (with cardiovascular problems) since last August but it worsened after repeated visits to Mount Paektu,” a source was quoted as saying, referring to the country’s sacred mountain.
Accompanied by senior North Korean figures, Kim took two well-publicised rides on a stallion on the snowy slopes of the mountain in October and December.
KIM’S HEALTH KEY TO STABILITY
An authoritative U.S. source familiar with internal U.S. government reporting on North Korea questioned the CNN report that Kim was in “grave danger”.
“Any credible direct reporting having to do with Kim would be highly compartmented intelligence and unlikely to leak to the media,” a Korea specialist working for the U.S. government said on condition of anonymity.
Japan’s top government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, declined to comment on the reports of Kim’s health.
“We are regularly gathering and analysing information about North Korea with great concern,” he said. “We will keep gathering and analysing information regarding North Korea by collaborating with other countries such as the U.S.”
Kim’s potential health issues could fuel uncertainty over the future of the reclusive state’s dynastic rule and stalled denuclearisation talks with the United States, issues in which Kim wields absolute authority.
With no details known about his young children, analysts say his sister and loyalists could form a regency until a successor is old enough to take over.
Speculation about Kim’s health first arose following his absence from the anniversary of the birthday of its founding father and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.
On April 12, North Korean state media reported that Kim Jong Un had visited an airbase and observed drills by fighter jets and attack aircraft.
Two days later North Korea launched multiple short-range anti-ship cruise missiles into the sea and Sukhoi jets fired air-to-surface missiles as part of military exercises.
The missile launches were part of the celebrations for Kim’s grandfather, Seoul officials said, but there was no North Korea state media report on his attendance or the tests.
Reporting from inside North Korea is notoriously difficult, especially on matters concerning the country’s leadership, given tight controls on information. There have been false and conflicting reports in the past on matters related to its leaders.
Kim is a third-generation hereditary leader who rules North Korea with an iron-fist, taking over the titles of head of state and commander in chief of the military since late 2011.
In recent years Kim has launched a diplomatic offensive to promote both himself as a world leader and his hermit kingdom, holding three meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump, four with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and five with China’s President Xi Jinping.
He was the first North Korean leader to cross the border into South Korea to meet Moon in 2018. Both Koreas are technically still at war, as the Korean War of 1950-53 ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Kim has sought to have international sanctions against his country eased, but has refused to dismantle his nuclear weapons programme, a steadfast demand by the United States.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s ruling Communist Party is ramping up calls for political loyalty in a year of sensitive anniversaries, warning against “erroneous thoughts” as officials fall over themselves to pledge allegiance to President Xi Jinping and his philosophy.
This year is marked by some delicate milestones: 30 years since the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in and around Tiananmen Square; 60 years since the Dalai Lama fled from Tibet into exile; and finally, on Oct. 1, 70 years since the founding of Communist China.
Born of turmoil and revolution, the Communist Party came to power in 1949 on the back of decades of civil war in which millions died, and has always been on high alert for “luan”, or “chaos”, and valued stability above all else.
“This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of new China,” Xi told legislators from Inner Mongolia on Tuesday, the opening day of the annual meeting of parliament. “Maintaining sustained, healthy economic development and social stability is a mission that is extremely arduous.”
Xi has tightened the party’s grip on almost every facet of government and life since assuming power in late 2012.
Last year parliament amended the country’s constitution to remove term limits and allow him to stay in office for the rest of his life, should he so wish, though it is unclear if that will happen and Xi has not mentioned it in public.
Later in the year the party will likely hold a plenum of its top leadership focused on what China calls “party building”, diplomats and sources with ties to China’s leadership say, a concept that refers to furthering party control and ensuring its instructions are followed to the letter.
In late January the party again stressed loyalty in new rules on “strengthening party political building”, telling members they should not fake loyalty or be “low-level red”, in a lengthy document carried by state media.
“Be on high alert to all kinds of erroneous thoughts, vague understandings, and bad phenomena in ideological areas,” it warned. “Keep your eyes open, see things early and move on them fast.”
LOYALTY FIRST
On March 1, Xi spoke at the Central Party School, which trains rising officials, mentioning the word “loyalty” at least seven times, according to official accounts in state media.
Xi noted that whether an official is loyal to the party is a key gauge of whether they have ideals and convictions. “Loyalty always comes first,” he said.
Duncan Innes-Ker, regional director for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said China was concerned about resistance at lower levels to following party orders, the slowing economy and also about demands for political reforms as people get steadily richer.
“The desire for control is not something particular to any time period,” he said. “It is a fundamental tenet of autocratic governments that they are constantly paranoid about being overthrown.”
Xi looms large over this year’s session of China’s largely rubber stamp parliament, known as the National People’s Congress, which has always been stacked with people chosen for their absolute fealty to the party.
Government ministers who spoke to reporters on the sidelines of parliament’s opening session on Tuesday peppered their comments with references to Xi – 16 times in all.
Customs minister Ni Yuefeng said that Xi himself “pays great attention to not allowing foreign garbage into the country”, a reference to China’s ban on solid waste imports, part of the country’s war on pollution.
“Ideology comes first this year,” said one Western diplomat who is attending the parliamentary sessions as an observer. “It’s all about the 70th anniversary.”
ROOTING OUT DISLOYALTY
The party has increasingly been making rooting out disloyalty and wavering from the party line a disciplinary offence to be enforced by its anti-corruption watchdog, whose role had ostensibly been to go after criminal acts such as bribery and lesser bureaucratic transgressions.
The graft buster said last month it would “uncover political deviation” in its political inspections this year of provincial governments and ministries.
Top graft buster Zhao Leji, in a January speech to the corruption watchdog, a full transcript of which the party released late February, used the word “loyalty” eight times.
“Set an example with your loyalty to the party,” Zhao said.
China has persistently denied its war on corruption is about political manoeuvring or Xi taking down his enemies. Xi told an audience in Seattle in 2015 that the anti-graft fight was no “House of Cards”-style power play, in a reference to the Netflix U.S. political drama.
The deeper fear for the party is some sort of unrest or a domestic or even international event fomenting a crisis that could end its rule.
Xi told officials in January they need to be on high alert for “black swan” events..
That same month the top law-enforcement official said China’s police must focus on withstanding “colour revolutions”, or popular uprisings, and treat the defence of China’s political system as central to their work.
The party has meanwhile shown no interest in political reform, and has been doubling down on the merits of the Communist Party, including this month rolling out English-language propaganda videos on state media-run Twitter accounts to laud “Chinese democracy”. Twitter remains blocked in China.
The official state news agency Xinhua said in an English-language commentary on Sunday that China was determined to stick to its political model and rejected Western-style democracy.
“The country began to learn about democracy a century ago, but soon found Western politics did not work here. Decades of turmoil and civil war followed,” it said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
South Korea, China cast doubt on reports North Korean leader Kim gravely ill
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean and Chinese officials on Tuesday cast doubt on reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was ill after media outlets said he had undergone a cardiovascular procedure and was in “grave danger”.
Daily NK, a Seoul-based speciality website, reported late on Monday, citing one unnamed source in North Korea, that Kim was recovering after undergoing the procedure on April 12. The North Korean leader is believed to be about 36.
CNN cited a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the matter as saying Washington was “monitoring intelligence” that Kim was in grave danger after surgery. Bloomberg quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying the White House was told that Kim took a turn for the worse after the surgery.
However, two South Korean government officials rejected the CNN report without elaborating on whether Kim had undergone surgery. The presidential Blue House said there were no unusual signs coming from the reclusive, nuclear-capable state.
Kim is the unquestioned leader of North Korea and the sole commander of its nuclear arsenal. He has no clear successor and any instability in the country could be a major international risk.
RELATED COVERAGE
The state KCNA news agency gave no indication of the whereabouts of Kim in routine dispatches on Tuesday, but said he had sent birthday gifts to prominent citizens.
An official at the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, which deals with North Korea, told Reuters the source did not believe Kim was critically ill. China is North Korea’s only major ally.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Beijing was aware of reports about the health of Kim, but said it does not know their source, without commenting on whether it has any information about the situation.
South Korean shares exposed to North Korea tumbled and the Korean won fell on the reports. The won traded down more than 1% against the dollar even as South Korean government sources said Kim was not gravely ill.
U.S. stock futures were trading 0.5% lower, but it was not clear how much of that weakness was owing to the collapse in U.S. oil prices and consequent concerns over global demand.
Daily NK said Kim had been admitted to hospital on April 12, just hours before the cardiovascular procedure, as his health had deteriorated since August due to heavy smoking, obesity and overwork.
It said he was now receiving treatment at a villa in the Mount Myohyang resort north of the capital Pyongyang.
“My understanding is that he had been struggling (with cardiovascular problems) since last August but it worsened after repeated visits to Mount Paektu,” a source was quoted as saying, referring to the country’s sacred mountain.
Accompanied by senior North Korean figures, Kim took two well-publicised rides on a stallion on the snowy slopes of the mountain in October and December.
KIM’S HEALTH KEY TO STABILITY
An authoritative U.S. source familiar with internal U.S. government reporting on North Korea questioned the CNN report that Kim was in “grave danger”.
“Any credible direct reporting having to do with Kim would be highly compartmented intelligence and unlikely to leak to the media,” a Korea specialist working for the U.S. government said on condition of anonymity.
Japan’s top government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, declined to comment on the reports of Kim’s health.
“We are regularly gathering and analysing information about North Korea with great concern,” he said. “We will keep gathering and analysing information regarding North Korea by collaborating with other countries such as the U.S.”
Kim’s potential health issues could fuel uncertainty over the future of the reclusive state’s dynastic rule and stalled denuclearisation talks with the United States, issues in which Kim wields absolute authority.
With no details known about his young children, analysts say his sister and loyalists could form a regency until a successor is old enough to take over.
Speculation about Kim’s health first arose following his absence from the anniversary of the birthday of its founding father and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.
On April 12, North Korean state media reported that Kim Jong Un had visited an airbase and observed drills by fighter jets and attack aircraft.
Two days later North Korea launched multiple short-range anti-ship cruise missiles into the sea and Sukhoi jets fired air-to-surface missiles as part of military exercises.
The missile launches were part of the celebrations for Kim’s grandfather, Seoul officials said, but there was no North Korea state media report on his attendance or the tests.
Reporting from inside North Korea is notoriously difficult, especially on matters concerning the country’s leadership, given tight controls on information. There have been false and conflicting reports in the past on matters related to its leaders.
Kim is a third-generation hereditary leader who rules North Korea with an iron-fist, taking over the titles of head of state and commander in chief of the military since late 2011.
In recent years Kim has launched a diplomatic offensive to promote both himself as a world leader and his hermit kingdom, holding three meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump, four with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and five with China’s President Xi Jinping.
He was the first North Korean leader to cross the border into South Korea to meet Moon in 2018. Both Koreas are technically still at war, as the Korean War of 1950-53 ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Kim has sought to have international sanctions against his country eased, but has refused to dismantle his nuclear weapons programme, a steadfast demand by the United States.
Source: Reuters
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