19/04/2020
- Faced with a backlash from the West over its handling of the early stages of the pandemic, Beijing has been quietly gaining ground in Asia
- Teams of experts and donations of medical supplies have been largely welcomed by China’s neighbours
Despite facing some criticism from the West, China’s Asian neighbours have welcomed its medical expertise and vital supplies. Photo: Xinhua
While China’s campaign to mend its international image in the wake of its handling of the
coronavirus health crisis has been met with scepticism and even a backlash from the US and its Western allies, Beijing has been quietly gaining ground in Asia.
Teams of experts have been sent to Cambodia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Pakistan and soon to Malaysia, to share their knowledge from the pandemic’s ground zero in central China.
Beijing has also donated or facilitated shipments of medical masks and ventilators to countries in need. And despite some of the equipment failing to meet Western quality standards, or being downright defective, the supplies have been largely welcomed in Asian countries.
China has also held a series of online “special meetings” with its Asian neighbours, most recently on Tuesday when Premier Li Keqiang discussed his country’s experiences in combating the disease and rebooting a stalled economy with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Japan and South Korea.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang speaks to Asean Plus Three leaders during a virtual summit on Tuesday. Photo: AP
Many Western politicians have publicly questioned Beijing’s role and its subsequent handling of the crisis but Asian leaders – including Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – have been reluctant to blame the Chinese government, while also facing criticism at home for not closing their borders with China soon enough to prevent the spread of the virus.
An official from one Asian country said attention had shifted from the early stages of the outbreak – when disgruntled voices among the public were at their loudest – as people watched the virus continue its deadly spread through their homes and across the world.
“Now everybody just wants to get past the quarantine,” he said. “China has been very helpful to us. It’s also closer to us so it’s easier to get shipments from them. The [medical] supplies keep coming, which is what we need right now.”
The official said also that while the teams of experts sent by Beijing were mainly there to observe and offer advice, the gesture was still appreciated.
Another Asian official said the tardy response by Western governments in handling the outbreak had given China an advantage, despite its initial lack of transparency over the outbreak.
“The West is not doing a better job on this,” he said, adding that his government had taken cues from Beijing on the use of propaganda in shaping public opinion and boosting patriotic sentiment in a time of crisis.
“Because it happened in China first, it has given us time to observe what works in China and adopt [these measures] for our country,” the official said.
Experts in the region said that Beijing’s intensifying campaign of “mask diplomacy” to reverse the damage to its reputation had met with less resistance in Asia.
Why China’s ‘mask diplomacy’ is raising concern in the West
“Over the past two months or so, China, after getting the Covid-19 outbreak under control, has been using a very concerted effort to reshape the narrative, to pre-empt the narrative that China is liable for this global pandemic, that China has to compensate other countries,” said Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based academic and former policy adviser to the Philippine government.
“It doesn’t help that the US is in lockdown with its domestic crisis and that we have someone like President Trump who is more interested in playing the blame game rather than acting like a global leader,” he said.
Shahriman Lockman, a senior analyst with the foreign policy and security studies programme at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said that as the US had withdrawn into its own affairs as it struggled to contain the pandemic, China had found Southeast Asia a fertile ground for cultivating an image of itself as a provider.
China’s first-quarter GDP shrinks for the first time since 1976 as coronavirus cripples economy
Beijing’s highly publicised delegations tasking medical equipment and supplies had burnished that reputation, he said, adding that the Chinese government had also “quite successfully shaped general Southeast Asian perceptions of its handling of the pandemic, despite growing evidence that it could have acted more swiftly at the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan”.
“Its capacity and will to build hospitals from scratch and put hundreds of millions of people on lockdown are being compared to the more indecisive and chaotic responses seen in the West, especially in Britain and the United States,” he said.
Coronavirus droplets may travel further than personal distancing guidelines
Lockman said Southeast Asian countries had also been careful to avoid getting caught in the middle of the deteriorating relationship between Beijing and Washington as the two powers pointed fingers at each other over the origins of the new coronavirus.
“The squabble between China and the United States about the pandemic is precisely what Asean governments would go to great lengths to avoid because it is seen as an expression of Sino-US rivalry,” he said.
“Furthermore, the immense Chinese market is seen as providing an irreplaceable route towards Southeast Asia’s post-pandemic economic recovery.”
Aaron Connelly, a research fellow in Southeast Asian political change and foreign policy with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, said Asian countries’ dependence on China had made them slow to blame China for the pandemic.
“Anecdotally, it seems to me that most Southeast Asian political and business elites have given Beijing a pass on the initial cover-up of Covid-19, and high marks for the domestic lockdown that followed,” he said.
“This may be motivated reasoning, because these elites are so dependent on Chinese trade and investment, and see little benefit in criticising China.”
China and Vietnam ‘likely to clash again’ as they build maritime militias
The cooperation with its neighbours as they grapple with the coronavirus had not slowed China’s military and research activities in the disputed areas of the
South China Sea – a point of contention that would continue to cloud relations in the region, experts said.
Earlier this month an encounter in the South China Sea with a Chinese coastguard vessel led to the sinking of a fishing boat from Vietnam, which this year assumed chairmanship of Asean.
And in a move that could spark fresh regional concerns, shipping data on Thursday showed a controversial Chinese government survey ship, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, had moved closer to Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone.
The survey ship was embroiled in a months-long stand-off last year with Vietnamese vessels within Hanoi’s exclusive economic zone and was spotted again on Tuesday 158km (98 miles) off the Vietnamese coast.
Source: SCMP
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07/02/2020
- Hong Kong and Thailand are likely to suffer most from the novel coronavirus outbreak because of close their economic ties with China
- A drop in Chinese tourist arrivals and imports, as well as supply chain disruptions are likely to weigh on regional economy
Thailand’s economy could be one of the most affected by the coronavirus outbreak due to its close ties with China, especially in the tourism sector. Photo: Bloomberg
Hong Kong and Thailand are likely to be the hardest hit Asian economies outside mainland China from the deadly coronavirus outbreak, according to analysts.
The 2019-nCoV, which had claimed the lives of nearly 640 people and infected more than 31,000 in mainland China by Friday, is viewed as even more damaging than the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic in 2002-2003 because of prolonged factory closures and transport restrictions that have locked down many Chinese cities.
China has become more closely integrated with the rest of Asia since the Sars outbreak, meaning the disruptions to China’s industrial and export sectors, combined with a sharp drop in economic activity in the first quarter, will have significant repercussions across the region, particularly through tourism and trade, analysts said.
“A collapse in tourism arrivals from China will be the first shock wave for the rest of the region,” said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics. “Factory closures in China will affect the rest of the region by disrupting regional supply chains.”
A collapse in tourism arrivals from China will be the first shock wave for the rest of the region. Factory closures in China will affect the rest of the region by disrupting regional supply chainsGareth Leather
Hong Kong would likely be the most affected because of its status as a trade hub, its tight linkages to the Chinese economy and the sharp decline in tourism expenditure that is expected, UBS economist William Deng noted.
“Due to the risk of infection, domestic households significantly reduced such activities as dining out, shopping and entertainment,” Deng wrote in a recent note. He cut Hong Kong’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to minus 1.8 per cent for 2020, against his previous projection of a 0.5 per cent drop.
A community outbreak spread by human-to-human transmission has started in the city, said
Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, a top microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong on Wednesday.
Thailand could be the next most affected due to its dependence on Chinese tourism. Outside Hong Kong and Macau, the country has the highest exposure to China as a share of GDP in the region.
China locks down Hangzhou, mega-city far from epicentre of coronavirus outbreak
ANZ Bank’s head of Asia research Khoon Goh said that the novel coronavirus could knock US$760 million from Thailand’s economy in the first quarter. Hong Kong could could see losses of US$1.4 billion. Travel services as a share of GDP were 11.2 per cent in Thailand and 9.4 per cent in Hong Kong.
“The Thai economy would expand at a slower rate in 2020 than previously forecast and much further below its potential due to the outbreak of coronavirus,” Bank of Thailand said in a statement after it slashed interest rates to a record low on Wednesday.
South Korean and Taiwanese businesses will also have negative spillover effects from the coronavirus outbreak because of
supply chain disruptions and weaker consumer sentiment inside and outside China, analysts said.
South Korean car and tech companies that rely on parts from Chinese suppliers are exposed to potential production disruptions stemming from factory closures and the evacuation of Korean workers from China-based production lines, said Sean Hwang, corporate finance group analyst at Moody’s Investors Group.
Coronavirus: here are the places and airlines restricting travel to China
For instance, Hyundai Motor Company closed some if its South Korea-based plants on February 4 because of a shortage of wiring harnesses.
Korean customers are also limiting their trips to bricks-and-mortar retail stores such as E Mart and Lotte Shopping to avoid crowds amid the outbreak, potentially leading to a significant decline in revenue and earnings, Hwang said.
Although Singapore is not as closely tied to China as Hong Kong, the city state could still see a knock-on effect from China’s expected near-term downturn, as its economy has become much more integrated with the world’s second largest economy since the Sars outbreak.
The number of Chinese tourists rose six times from 568,000 in 2003 to 3.4 million in 2018, said Irvin Seah, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Coronavirus outbreak: global businesses shut down operations in China
“We expect a decline of about 1 million tourists or about SGD1 billion (US$722 million) of lost tourism receipts for every three months of travel ban,” Seah said. “We have lowered our full-year GDP growth forecast to 0.9 per cent, down from 1.4 per cent previously.”
Taiwan has banned Chinese visitors as well as foreigners who have visited Hong Kong and Macau from entering the island due the coronavirus. International cruise ships are also unable to dock on the island, which will lead to at least 112 liner visits cancelled by the end of March, affecting around 144,000 passengers, said the Taiwan International Ports Corporation.
Capital Economics’ Leather said the economic impact on Taiwan from 2019-nCoV could stand out from the rest of Asia, as it had the most exposure in value-added, intermediate exports to China – 18 per cent of GDP.
20 coronavirus infections confirmed on cruise ship in Japan, as thousands remain under quarantine
Elsewhere, Malaysia’s commodity driven trade growth this year has been threatened by the almost 20 per cent fall in crude oil prices, a decline triggered by fears that the coronavirus outbreak would dampen China’s imports. Malaysia’s purchasing managers’ index, a survey of manufacturers, dropped to 48.8 in January from 50.0 the prior month prior, data released this week showed. The drop was blamed on slowing output, with new orders dropping the most since September amid a decline in exports.
“The Bank Negara Malaysia’s surprising policy rate cut at the last meeting on 22 January, just around the time the coronavirus started to dominate headlines, tells us that the central bank is ahead of the curve in recognising the risk,” said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING Bank said.
India and Indonesia will be the least affected given the small contribution the tourism sector makes to their economies, and the low share of visitors from China, ANZ’s Goh said.
Source: SCMP
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