Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan waded into the hotly contested politics of the Pacific on Wednesday, donating face masks and thermal cameras to its four diplomatic allies there to combat the coronavirus in a region where China is challenging traditional power of the United States.
The small developing nations lie in the highly strategic waters of the Pacific, dominated since World War Two by the United States and its friends, who have been concerned over China’s moves to expand its footprint there.
Democratic Taiwan has faced intense pressure from China, which claims the island as its territory with no right to state-to-state ties, and is bent on wooing away its few allies.
Taiwan has only 15 formal allies left worldwide after losing two Pacific nations, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, to China in September.
Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic push into the Pacific, pledging virus aid and medical advice.
In its own aid programme, Taiwan has donated 16 million masks to countries around the world.
“We are a very small country, so it’s easier for us to work with Taiwan than mainland China,” Neijon Edwards, the Marshall Islands ambassador to Taiwan, told Reuters at the donation ceremony in Taipei.
China has been too overbearing, she added.
“It’s pressing too much, and it’s been trying to come to the Marshall Islands, several times, but up to this time we haven’t even opened the door yet.”
While the masks presented at the ceremony are going to Taiwan’s Pacific allies, all its 15 global allies are sharing the thermal cameras.
“Today’s ceremony once again shows that Taiwan is taking concrete actions not only to safeguard the health of Taiwanese people but also to contribute to global efforts to contain COVID-19,” said Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
Though Pacific Island states offer little economically to either China and Taiwan, their support is valued in global forums such as the United Nations and as China seeks to isolate Taiwan.
China has offered to help developing countries including those of the Pacific, and many see Chinese lending as the best bet to develop their economies.
But critics say Chinese loans can lead countries into a “debt trap”, charges China has angrily rejected.
The debt issue was a serious problem and would only lead to the spread of Chinese influence regionwide, said Jarden Kephas, the ambassador of Nauru.
“They will end up dominating or having a lot of say in those countries because of the amount of debt,” he told Reuters, wondering how the money could ever be repaid. “We are not rich countries.”
As US financial support expires in 2023, Beijing could ‘loosen the screws’ on regional alliance with lucrative development deals
Independence vote in Micronesia’s Chuuk state in March could raise the stakes, potentially allowing China access to strategically vital waters
President of the Federated States of Micronesia David Panuelo shakes hands with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua
In China earlier this month, David Panuelo, the president of the Federated States of Micronesia, climbed the Badaling section of the Great Wall. And, according to Huang Zheng, Beijing’s ambassador to the Pacific nation, the countries’ “great friendship rose to even greater heights” during Panuelo’s visit.
Chinese investment in Micronesia reached similarly lofty levels in conjunction with Panuelo’s trip, which marked three decades of diplomatic ties and included meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. Beijing has committed US$72 million in economic development deals, almost as much as its total investment of the previous three decades.
Micronesia is one of three Pacific nations with agreements with Washington, known as the Compact of Free Association (COFA), which allows their citizens to live and work in the US. In exchange, Micronesia, neighbouring Palau and the Marshall Islands grant the US exclusive military and defence access to their territorial waters – more than 2 million square miles of the Pacific that have been an essential element of Washington’s power projection in the region since World War II.
Much of China’s funding has been directed to Micronesia’s Chuuk state, which will in March vote in an independence referendum.
Although Chuuk is home to fewer than 50,000 people, its waters include one of the region’s deepest and most strategically appealing lagoons, creating extra incentive for Beijing and potential concern for Washington as the two countries
With a population of just 113,000 people, Micronesia relies on remittances sent home by citizens working in the US as well as the financial support from Washington under COFA. That assistance is scheduled to expire in 2023, creating uncertainty about the future of the relationship and making Chinese investment even more influential.
“Panuelo’s visit to China is a perfect example of how [the Chinese side] just needs to do a little to get a lot,” said Derek Grossman, senior analyst at Rand Corporation, a Washington think tank. “US$100 million is not very much for them and they can essentially loosen the screws [on COFA] with that.”
Micronesian President David Panuelo (second on left) and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (right) during their talks in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE
The value of Micronesia’s bilateral trade with China has increased by nearly 30 per cent annually for the past five years, according to Micronesia’s Foreign Ministry. In 2017, the island nation signed onto President Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative which aims to build a vast network of strategic investment, trade routes and infrastructure projects across more than 150 countries.
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In recent years Chinese funding in Micronesia has built office and residential complexes for government officials, a showpiece new convention centre in the capital city Palikir, transport infrastructure and student exchanges, according to a recent report by Rand.
Jian Zhang, associate professor at UNSW Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Beijing’s investment reflected a decision to cultivate broader, deeper ties.
Micronesian President David Panuelo during his meeting with Chinese officials in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE
“China’s interest in building the relationship with Micronesia is not just about its diplomatic rivalry with Taiwan or economic interests,” he said. “It has elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership which encompasses all areas.”
During his recent visit, Panuelo described China as Micronesia’s top economic partner and the US as its top security partner. Pompeo’s visit to Micronesia highlights US anxiety about rising Chinese influence in Pacific 5 Aug 2019
Gerard Finin, professor of regional planning at Cornell University, who previously worked with the US Department of State in the Pacific, said: “China’s leadership consistently accords large ocean states the full protocol that is expected when a head of state visits.
“In contrast, Washington has only had a limited number of meetings and never hosted an official state visit to Washington for the leader of a Pacific Island nation,” said Finin.
US President Donald Trump in May hosted the leaders of Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands together at the White House. When Mike Pompeo visited Micronesia
in August, he became the only sitting US secretary of state to have done so.
Pompeo said negotiations to update COFA had begun but no details have been made public. Micronesia has assembled a team to conduct the negotiations but the US has not, the Honolulu Civil Beat website reported.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Micronesia in August. Photo: AFP
Breakaway vote could raise the stakes
Panuelo’s team met Micronesian students studying in China and representatives of state-owned China Railway Construction Corporation, which will build the roads in Chuuk, funded in part by US$50 million from Beijing. Construction of the Chuuk government complex was also funded by Beijing and the state’s governor joined Panuelo for his visit.
Should Chuuk vote to separate from Micronesia in March, it could also mean breaking from COFA, jeopardising the US work privileges of thousands of Chuukese and opening the state’s waters to other partners, particularly China.
Chuuk is home to one of the deepest lagoons in the Pacific, a geographic rarity of particular value in strategic military operations and submarine navigation.
US Coast Guard looks to bolster Pacific allegiances as Chinese clout grows
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Zhang said Beijing would explore any opportunity to build a port with potential military capability.
“China has a long-term need to gain a strategic foothold in the region,” Zhang said. “That is a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative. At the general level it’s an economic initiative but an important aspect of the maritime Silk Road is to develop a network of strategically located port facilities.”
Sabino Asor, chair of the public education committee for the Chuuk Political Status Commission, told Civil Beat seceding from Micronesia would be the best option for Chuuk’s future.
“There is no encouraging prospect if Chuuk remains within the Federation,” he said.
However, Patrick Buchan, at Washington think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Chuuk’s dependence on remittances from the US made breaking from COFA unlikely.
China courts Pacific island states in pursuit of ‘foothold’ as US risks losing influence
8 Aug 2019
In the meantime, uncertainty over COFA negotiations persists, although there is a chance it will be renewed with few changes.
“There is circulation with people easily coming and going that provides a level of understanding and friendship that does not exist between too many other countries,” Finin said.
However, China’s most attractive feature may be its willingness to at least discuss the most pressing concern of Pacific Island nations: climate change.
“When the Trump administration talks about how it doesn’t believe in climate change, or can’t even say the words – that is really offensive for Pacific nations,” Grossman said. “China knows that, and is taking full advantage of it.”
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionTuvalu is battling rising sea levels
The tiny South Pacific nation of Tuvalu has rejected offers from Chinese firms to build artificial islands that would help it deal with rising sea levels, its foreign minister says.
Simon Kofe told Reuters he saw the offers as an attempt to reduce Taiwan’s influence in the region.
But he instead reaffirmed his country’s support for Taiwan.
China has increased efforts to expand its influence in the Pacific, alarming the United States and its allies.
Only 15 countries recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation and have full diplomatic relations. A number of countries have switched their allegiance from Taiwan to China in recent years.
China refuses to have diplomatic relations with any country that recognises Taiwan.
In recent months Taiwan lost two allies in the region, when Kiribati and the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition to China. Beijing has been accused of luring them in with the promise of financial aid and airplanes.
Media caption Tuvalu’s foreign minister discusses increasing pressure from China
Mr Kofe expressed his backing for Taiwan and said his nation was setting up a group to unite Taiwan’s four remaining Pacific allies – the Marshall Islands, Palau, Nauru and Tuvalu.
“We believe in the power of grouping together and collaborating,” he told Reuters news agency.
“Together with our partners, we will be able to counter the influence from mainland China.”
Mr Kofe said Chinese companies had approached local communities offering to help with a $400m (£310m) government plan to build artificial islands. He believes the companies were backed by the Chinese government.
“We are hearing a lot of information about debt,” he said. “China buying our islands and looking at setting up military bases in our part of the world. Those are things that are concerning to us.”
Beijing has proposed Taiwan operate under a “one country, two systems” structure, similar to Hong Kong.
Since Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, seven countries have dropped Taiwan as a diplomatic ally. The support from Tuvalu could help her as she seeks re-election in January.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead delegation at two-day summit that is expected to be attended by 400 officials and 200 businesspeople
Observers say it is Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the region and will be closely watched in the US
Samoan capital Apia will host the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum, which begins on Sunday. Photo: Alamy
China will seek to expand its economic and diplomatic influence in the South Pacific at a forum this weekend, amid growing concern from the US and its allies over Beijing’s push in the strategically important region.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum in the Samoan capital Apia, which begins on Sunday. It is expected to be attended by 400 officials and more than 200 businesspeople.
Hu, the former Communist Party chief of China’s manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong who now overseas commercial and agricultural affairs, is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony.
Beijing sees the two-day forum as “timely” and “a good opportunity to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the Pacific”, a commerce ministry spokesperson told the official Economic Daily newspaper.
Trade, agriculture and fisheries, as well as tourism, infrastructure and climate change were at the top of the agenda for the forum, the spokesperson said.
Leaders of all the Pacific nations – except the four that do not have formal diplomatic ties with Beijing – are expected to attend the forum. Australia, which has “observer status” at the summit, will send Ewen McDonald, deputy secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the head of its Pacific office.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the forum. Photo: EPA-EFE
The forum comes after China hailed a “new breakthrough” in the region following the decision last month by the Solomon Islands and then Kiribati – despite warnings from the US – to cut diplomatic ties with Taipei and switch to Beijing.
They are the latest of Taipei’s allies to be poached by Beijing as it ramps up pressure on the self-ruled island that it sees as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Observers said this weekend’s forum was Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the Pacific.
“Having one of China’s top 25 officials visit the region so soon after [Chinese President] Xi Jinping spent close to three days in Papua New Guinea last November is certainly significant,” said Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands programme at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, referring to Hu’s position in the 25-member Politburo.
“It shows clearly China’s attempt to recapture momentum after the West, and in particular Australia, have redoubled their efforts in maintaining and building relationships in the Pacific,” he said.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Peter O’Neill (second from left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (second from right) pose for a photo during Xi’s visit in November. Photo: AFP
First held in Fiji in 2006, the forum is part of China’s efforts to expand its reach in the resource-rich region.
Back then, premier Wen Jiabao announced 3 billion yuan of concessional loans to Pacific nations and promised to facilitate more trade, medical aid and tourism with the countries. Chinese capital has been pouring into the region – particularly from the mining and fisheries sectors – ever since.
Of note was a 440 million yuan investment, supported by loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, to build a central business centre at Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga.
US and allies sideline China in PNG’s Bougainville by helping fund independence vote
As China’s influence grows, the South Pacific – a region traditionally under US hegemony, and on Australia’s doorstep – has “increasingly become a major power that cannot be neglected” and “an important part of China’s greater strategic landscape”, according to Shi Chunlin, an associate professor at Dalian Maritime University.
Trade has increased between China and the eight Pacific nations that have diplomatic ties with Beijing, rising to a combined US$4.32 billion last year – up 25 per cent from 2017.
China has also become the largest trading partner of new ally the Solomons, the second-largest to Papua New Guinea and Fiji, and the third-largest to Samoa.
China’s direct investment in the region has also jumped, reaching US$4.53 billion last year, a more than fourfold increase from the US$900 million of 2013.
Pryke said Beijing was expected to offer new support and loans to the Pacific nations.
“But the Pacific are much more picky about how they want to engage with all partners than they were a decade ago,” he added.
Returning from a trip to China earlier this month, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare confirmed Beijing would provide a US$74 million grant to build a new stadium for the 2023 Pacific Games in the capital Honiara – something its former ally Taipei had committed to fund.
China Sam Group also reportedly signed an agreement on September 22 to lease the island of Tulagi in the Solomons, the site of a former Japanese naval base. The agreement mentioned the development of a refinery on the island, but critics said it could also potentially be used as a military base.
China is now the second-largest donor in the region, only after Australia, which has viewed Beijing’s financial largesse with suspicion.
Last year, in an apparent effort to counter China’s rising influence in the region, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that Pacific countries would be offered up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans to build infrastructure.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year announced up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans for infrastructure in Pacific nations. Photo: EPA-EFE
The US, meanwhile, has also been wary of China’s push in the Pacific, amid an escalating geopolitical competition between the world’s two largest economies across many fronts – from trade to tech supremacy and security. The US has long maintained exclusive defence access in the region through its Guam military base and security pacts with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst with the US-based Rand Corporation, said this year’s forum in Samoa was likely to be higher profile than previous years after Beijing lured away two more diplomatic allies from Taipei.
He said it would be “closely watched in the US for how Beijing continues to leverage sweet economic deals via its Belt and Road Initiative to potentially entice others to switch”.
“The US, along with close friends Australia, Japan and New Zealand, are becoming increasingly concerned over the prospects for China to one day curry enough influence in these small island states to gain port access that could be used for new naval bases,” he said.
The most important issue at the forum, he said, would be “whether the West assesses that China is making further inroads with these states”.
“The likely answer will be that it is, suggesting that the US and its partners will have to compete with China in this region to ensure that it remains ‘free and open’, per the US Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 