Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
SEOUL/TOKYO (Reuters) – With more employees working from home to help slow the spread of the coronavirus, demand is surging for laptops and network peripherals as well as components along the supply chain such as chips, as companies rush to build virtual offices.
Many firms have withdrawn earnings forecasts, anticipating a drop in consumer demand and economic slump, but performance at electronics retailers and chipmakers is hinting at benefits from the shift in work culture.
Over the past month, governments and companies globally have been advising people to stay safe indoors. Over roughly the same period, South Korea – home of the world’s biggest memory chip maker, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd – on Monday reported a 20% jump in semiconductor exports.
Pointing to further demand, nearly one in three Americans have been ordered to stay home, while Italy – where deaths have hit 5,476 – has banned internal travel. Worldwide, the flu-like virus has infected over 300,000 people and led to almost 15,000 deaths since China first reported the outbreak in December.
“With more people working and learning from home during the outbreak, there has been rising demand for internet services … meaning data centres need bigger pipes to carry the traffic,” said analyst Park Sung-soon at Cape Investment & Securities.
A South Korean trade ministry official told Reuters that cloud computing has boosted sales of server chips, “while an increase in telecommuting in the United States and China has also been a main driver of huge server demand.”
In Japan, laptop maker Dynabook reported brisk demand which it partly attributed to companies encouraging teleworking. Rival NEC Corp said it has responded to demand with telework-friendly features such as more powerful embedded speakers.
Australian electronics retailer JB Hifi Ltd also said it saw demand “acceleration” in recent weeks from both commercial and retail customers for “essential products they need to respond to and prepare” for the virus, such as devices that support remote working as well as home appliances.
CHINA LEAD
China is leading chip demand, analysts said, as cloud service providers such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Tencent Holdings Ltd and Baidu Inc quickly responded to the government’s effort to contain the virus.
“Cloud companies opened their platforms, allowing new and existing customers to use more resources for free to help maintain operations,” said analyst Yih Khai Wong at Canalys.
“This set the precedent for technology companies around the world that offer cloud-based services in their response to helping organisations affected by coronavirus.”
China’s cloud infrastructure build-up has helped push up chip prices, with spot prices of DRAM chips rising more than 6% since Feb. 20, showed data from price tracker DRAMeXchange.
UBS last week forecast average contract prices of DRAM chips to rise as much as 10% in the second quarter from the first, led by a more than 20% jump in server chips.
It said it expects DRAM chips to be modestly under supplied until the third quarter of 2021, with demand from server customers rising 31% both in 2020 and 2021.
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
Concerns over supply disruption has also contributed to a price rise.
“You’ve got lots of OEMs and systems integrators in the global market who have intense demand for memory now,” said Andrew Perlmutter, chief strategy officer at ITRenew, a company that buys and reworks used data centre equipment for resale.
“Nobody is shutting down their factories – it is still production as normal – but people worry about memory supply in particular, so they want to get out ahead of production.”
About 69% of electronics manufacturers have flagged possible supplier delays averaging three weeks, showed a poll on March 13 by industry trade group IPC International.
Half of those polled expected business to normalise by July, and nearly three-quarters pointed to at least October.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) said on Thursday the coronavirus drove 8 billion visits to its WeChat platform as users flocked to get “health codes” they need to show authorities in order to travel around the country.
Reporting slightly lower than expected fourth quarter profit on Wednesday, the gaming and social media giant said in a statement it did not expect the epidemic to have any significant impact on its financial position to date.
This is markedly different from many companies around the world which have downgraded earnings forecasts due to the virus.
It reported a 21.58 billion yuan (US$3.07 billion) profit for the three months through December. That compared with the 22.85 billion yuan average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
Revenue rose 25% to 105.8 billion yuan, versus the 102.9 billion yuan average estimate of 17 analysts. That marked Tencent’s fastest revenue growth since late 2018.
Tencent’s businesses are mainly online-only, positioning it uniquely against other tech giants such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA.N) that focus on e-commerce and whose supply chains have been severely disrupted by the outbreak.
“Mobile games are one of the very few entertainment options during the coronavirus outbreak. Comparing the figures in early 2019, downloads of Tencent games increased by 10.4% year over year in this February, and revenue increased by 11.8%,” said analyst Nan Lu at researcher Sensor Tower.
Overall, downloads of all Tencent apps for this February grew 32.3% month-on-month and 42.9% year-on-year, she said.
VIDEO STREAMING
Tencent’s most popular games include Honour of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite. It also operates social media platform WeChat, a video streaming site and a news portal. Its services experienced a surge in traffic as China’s government urged millions of people to stay at home and away from crowded places, analysts said.
Well before the epidemic began in China in late December, prospects were already starting to look up for the company after an especially difficult 2018, when it endured a lengthy freeze in the regulatory approval of new games that wiped billions of dollars off its market value.
A weak point in the January-March quarter, however, will likely be advertising – which made up nearly 20% of revenue in the third quarter – as companies cut back spending amid concerns over the virus’ economic fallout, analysts said.
Shares in Tencent closed 4.5% lower on Wednesday. Tencent’s shares have fallen 11.1% so far this year as the coronavrius roiled global markets, versus a 21% decline in the Hang Seng index .HIS.
Subsidiary Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME.N) on Tuesday said it would likely see “much softer” first-quarter revenue growth as the outbreak was impacting licensing and advertising revenue.
On the flip side, analyst Kevin Tam at Core Pacific-Yamaichi Securities in Hong Kong wrote in a research note that Tencent could see margin improvement “as a result of stringent control on marketing expenses and higher profitability from video advertising”.
Image copyright NATIONAL MUSEUM OF HEALTH AND MEDICINEImage caption The 1918 flu pandemic is believed to have infected a third of the population worldwide
All interest in living has ceased, Mahatma Gandhi, battling a vile flu in 1918, told a confidante at a retreat in the western Indian state of Gujarat.
The highly infectious Spanish flu had swept through the ashram in Gujarat where 48-year-old Gandhi was living, four years after he had returned from South Africa. He rested, stuck to a liquid diet during “this protracted and first long illness” of his life. When news of his illness spread, a local newspaper wrote: “Gandhi’s life does not belong to him – it belongs to India”.
Outside, the deadly flu, which slunk in through a ship of returning soldiers that docked in Bombay (now Mumbai) in June 1918, ravaged India. The disease, according to health inspector JS Turner, came “like a thief in the night, its onset rapid and insidious”. A second wave of the epidemic began in September in southern India and spread along the coastline.
The influenza killed between 17 and 18 million Indians, more than all the casualties in World War One. India bore a considerable burden of death – it lost 6% of its people. More women – relatively undernourished, cooped up in unhygienic and ill-ventilated dwellings, and nursing the sick – died than men. The pandemic is believed to have infected a third of the world’s population and claimed between 50 and 100 million lives.
Gandhi and his febrile associates at the ashram were lucky to recover. In the parched countryside of northern India, the famous Hindi language writer and poet, Suryakant Tripathi, better known as Nirala, lost his wife and several members of his family to the flu. My family, he wrote, “disappeared in the blink of an eye”. He found the Ganges river “swollen with dead bodies”. Bodies piled up, and there wasn’t enough firewood to cremate them. To make matters worse, a failed monsoon led to a drought and famine-like conditions, leaving people underfed and weak, and pushed them into the cities, stoking the rapid spread of the disease.
Image copyright PRINT COLLECTORImage caption Bombay was one of the worst hit cities by the 1918 pandemic
To be sure, the medical realities are vastly different now. Although there’s still no cure, scientists have mapped the genetic material of the coronavirus, and there’s the promise of anti-viral drugs, and a vaccine. The 1918 flu happened in the pre-antibiotic era, and there was simply not enough medical equipment to provide to the critically ill. Also western medicines weren’t widely accepted in India then and most people relied on indigenous medication.
Yet, there appear to be some striking similarities between the two pandemics, separated by a century. And possibly there are some relevant lessons to learn from the flu, and the bungled response to it.
The outbreak in Bombay, an overcrowded city, was the source of the infection’s spread back then – this something that virologists are fearing now. With more than 20 million people, Bombay is India’s most populous city and Maharashtra, the state where it’s located, has reported the highest number of coronivirus cases in the country.
By early July in 1918, 230 people were dying of the disease every day, up nearly three times from the end of June. “The chief symptoms are high temperature and pains in the back and the complaint lasts three days,” The Times of India reported, adding that “nearly every house in Bombay has some of its inmates down with fever”. Workers stayed away from offices and factories. More Indian adults and children were infected than resident Europeans. The newspapers advised people to not spend time outside and stay at home. “The main remedy,” wrote The Times of India, “is to go to bed and not worry”. People were reminded the disease spread “mainly through human contact by means of infected secretions from the nose and mouths”.
“To avoid an attack one should keep away from all places where there is overcrowding and consequent risk of infection such as fairs, festivals, theatres, schools, public lecture halls, cinemas, entertainment parties, crowded railway carriages etc,” wrote the paper. People were advised to sleep in the open rather than in badly ventilated rooms, have nourishing food and get exercise.
“Above all,” The Times of India added, “do not worry too much about the disease”.
Image copyright PRINT COLLECTOR
Colonial authorities differed over the source of infection. Health official Turner believed that the people on the docked ship had brought the fever to Bombay, but the government insisted that the crew had caught the flu in the city itself. “This had been the characteristic response of the authorities, to attribute any epidemic that they could not control to India and what was invariably termed the ‘insanitary condition’ of Indians,” observed medical historian Mridula Ramanna in her magisterial study of how Bombay coped with the pandemic.
Later a government report bemoaned the state of India’s government and the urgent need to expand and reform it. Newspapers complained that officials remained in the hills during the emergency, and that the government had thrown people “on the hands of providence”. Hospital sweepers in Bombay, according to Laura Spinney, author of Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World, stayed away from British soldiers recovering from the flu. “The sweepers had memories of the British response to the plague outbreak which killed eight million Indians between 1886 and 1914.”
Image copyright PRINT COLLECTORImage caption The hospitals in Bombay were overwhelmed by patients
“The colonial authorities also paid the price for the long indifference to indigenous health, since they were absolutely unequipped to deal with the disaster,” says Ms Spinney. “Also, there was a shortage of doctors as many were away on the war front.”
Eventually NGOs and volunteers joined the response. They set up dispensaries, removed corpses, arranged cremations, opened small hospitals, treated patients, raised money and ran centres to distribute clothes and medicine. Citizens formed anti-influenza committees. “Never before, perhaps, in the history of India, have the educated and more fortunately placed members of the community, come forward in large numbers to help their poorer brethren in time of distress,” a government report said.
Now, as the country battles another deadly infection, the government has responded swiftly. But, like a century ago, civilians will play a key role in limiting the virus’ spread. And as coronavirus cases climb, this is something India should keep in mind.
Seoul’s handling of the outbreak emphasises transparency and relies heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns
While uncertainties remain, it is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep Covid-19 in check
A woman wearing a face mask walks along the Han river at a park in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: AP
After announcing 600 new cases for March 3, the authorities reported 131 new infections a week later. On Friday, officials reported just 110, the lowest daily toll since February 21. The same day, the number of recovered patients, 177, exceeded new infections for the first time.President Moon Jae-in, while cautioning against premature optimism, has expressed hope that South Korea could soon enter a “phase of stability” if the trend holds firm.
With about 8,000 confirmed cases and more than 65 deaths, it was until recently the country with the most confirmed cases outside China – but South Korea has since emerged as a source of inspiration and hope for authorities around the world as they scramble to fight the pandemic.
South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
11 Mar 2020
As countries ranging from the United States to Italy and Iran struggle to manage the virus, Seoul’s handling of the outbreak – involving a highly coordinated government response that has emphasised transparency and relied heavily on public cooperation in place of hardline measures such as lockdowns – is increasingly viewed by public health experts as a model to emulate for authorities desperate to keep the virus under control.
Whereas China, where the virus originated, and more recently Italy have placed millions of their citizens on lockdown, South Korea has not restricted people’s movements – not even in Daegu, the southeastern city at the centre of the country’s outbreak.
Instead, authorities have focused mandatory quarantine on infected patients and those with whom they have come into close contact, while advising the public to stay indoors, avoid public events, wear masks and practise good hygiene.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on March 11. Photo: EPA
And while numerous countries have imposed sweeping travel bans – including the US, which has introduced dramatic restrictions on travel from Europe – Seoul has instead introduced “special immigration procedures” for heavily affected countries such as China, requiring travellers to undergo temperature checks, provide verified contact information and fill out health questionnaires.
[South Korea’s] approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China – Ian MacKay, virologist at the University of Queensland
“More than a week of downward-trending case counts shows that the approach in South Korea has turned around an epidemic,” said Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, Australia. “This approach seems less dramatic and more usable by other countries, compared with that used in mainland China. If these trends continue, they will have managed to stop the growth of their epidemic.”
‘A SPECTACULAR FEAT’
The linchpin of South Korea’s response has been a testing programme that has screened more people per capita for the virus than any other country by far. By carrying out up to 15,000 tests per day, health officials have been able to screen some 250,000 people – about one in every 200 South Koreans – since January.
To encourage participation, testing is free for anyone referred by a doctor or displaying symptoms after recent contact with a confirmed case or travel to China. For anyone simply concerned about the risk of infection, the cost is a relatively affordable 160,000 won (US$135). Testing is available at hundreds of clinics, as well as some 50 drive-through testing stations that took their inspiration from past counterterrorism drills and can screen suspected patients in minutes.
“This country has a universal health-coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low,” said Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “Tests are conducted for free if you have proper symptoms.”
The massive volume of data collected has enabled the authorities to pinpoint clusters of infection to better target their quarantine and disinfection efforts, and send members of the public text-message alerts to inform them of the past movements of infected patients in their area – even down to the names of shops and restaurants they visited.
This country has a universal health coverage system for the whole population and the economic burden for testing is very low – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology
“South Korea’s capability to test for early detection of viruses has developed greatly as it went through the 2009 new influenza outbreak and 2015 Mers [Middle East respiratory syndrome] outbreak,” said Kim Woo-joo, a professor of medicine at Korea University’s College of Medicine. “It ranks among the world’s top countries in this field.”
South Korea’s ‘drive-through’ coronavirus testing stations
Collecting this amount of data has also allowed the South Korean authorities to glean a clearer indication of the potential lethality of the virus, the fatality rate of which has diverged significantly from about 5 per cent in Italy to about 0.8 per cent in South Korea. Although factors including quality of health care, patient age and public awareness can affect the fatality rate of a virus, the scale of testing is among the most influential.
By comparison, in neighbouring Japan – which has confirmed more than 600 cases, not including the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship – the authorities had as of Friday tested over 10,000 people.
In the United States, where the authorities are unable to confirm the number of tests since they are being carried out by a patchwork of federal, state and private laboratories, the total was estimated to be fewer than 5,000 in a survey of available data by The Atlantic.
William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in the US, said South Korea had pulled off a “spectacular” feat that was allowing health officials to track the virus and assess its intensity.
“We are unsure where our infection is and how intensely it is being transmitted in the US and we are only now starting to test,” he said.
Coronavirus is now classified as a pandemic
13 Mar 2020
South Korea is not unique in claiming some success in its fight against the virus. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, informed by past outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Mers, have managed to keep confirmed cases low while eschewing the sort of draconian measures implemented in mainland China.
Early on, Hong Kong took some of the most comprehensive steps to implement “social distancing” – in which events are cancelled and venues closed to minimise contact between people – by shutting schools in late January, while the authorities produced a digital map of confirmed cases to allow people to avoid potentially infected areas.
In Taiwan, officials have pooled information from immigration and health insurance databases to track people’s travel histories and symptoms, and used phone tracking to ensure compliance with quarantine. Singapore has similarly tracked infected patients and traced their contacts, with stiff penalties for those who disobey quarantine or mislead the authorities about where they have travelled.
A worker disinfects a Seoul subway station as a precaution against the new coronavirus. Photo: AP
OPENNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
But where South Korea has stood apart is seemingly turning the tide against a major outbreak while maintaining openness and transparency. The largest cluster of cases in the country is linked to a secretive religious sect, Shincheonji, members of which have been accused of negligently spreading the virus as well as evading medical follow-ups and testing.
In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection or minimal disruption – Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations
“South Korea’s experience suggests that a country can contain the spread of the virus in a relatively short period of time without relying on draconian, at-all-costs containment measures,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
“For countries like the US, the Korean experience offers an acceptable, likely more viable, alternative to addressing the outbreak. In addressing the Covid-19 outbreak, sound decision-making should not be about making a choice between maximised protection and minimal disruption.”
China effectively barred 60 million people in Wuhan – ground zero of the outbreak – and the rest of the province of Hubei from leaving their homes, while restricting the movements of hundreds of millions of others across the country by shutting down public transport, banning private cars and setting up roadblocks.
‘I was stupidly overconfident’: a Korean coronavirus survivor’s tale
15 Mar 2020
The country claims to have effectively halted the spread of the virus after recording more than 80,000 cases and 3,100 deaths, and its daily updates have in recent weeks fallen from thousands of new cases to dozens. However, scepticism lingers over official figures after local and provincial officials in Hubei initially tried to hide the extent of the outbreak.
In a move widely seen to be aimed at touting the success of Beijing’s hardline measures, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday made his first visit to Wuhan, during which he called for businesses and factories to return to work as normal and for the country to refocus on economic growth.
“While China has been able to control Covid-19, I don’t think its draconian methods are worth copying in liberal democracies,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law Centre in Washington. “Most democracies value human rights and freedoms … [not] the degree of social control we’ve seen in China. South Korea offers a better model.”
A nearly empty customer call centre in the Gocheok-dong neighbourhood of Seoul as workers isolate or work from home. Photo: EPA
But in a striking indication that Beijing’s harsh tactics could inform even liberal democratic societies, Italy on Monday announced a nationwide quarantine after a massive spike in cases caught the authorities off guard. Shops, restaurants and bars have been closed, while public gatherings and most travel have been banned in the European country, which has confirmed more than 15,000 cases and 1,000 deaths as of Friday – making it the site of the biggest outbreak outside China.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday announced a lockdown of the entire Metro Manila region and its 12.8 million people.
David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said Italy had responded “very slowly” to the outbreak, in contrast to South Korea.
Southeast Asia at risk of missing coronavirus cases amid dengue outbreak: experts
11 Mar 2020
Even as Beijing touted its success at fighting the virus, with state media recently insisting the “world owes China a ‘thank you’”, South Korea – which democratised in the late 1980s following decades of military dictatorship – has made no secret of its desire to promote a more liberal alternative.
At a press conference with foreign media this week, vice-health minister Kim Gang-lip said that while drastic measures such as locking down affected areas had demonstrated “modest effectiveness”, they suffered from being “coercive and inflexible”.
“Korea, as a democratic country, values globalisation and a pluralistic society,” he said.
“Therefore we believe we must transcend the limitations of the conventional approach to fighting infectious disease.”
Kim stressed that public trust was crucial to the government’s strategy. “The more transparently and quickly accurate information is provided, the more the people will trust the government,” he said. “They will act rationally for the good of the community at large.”
South Korean ministers listen to Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (on screen) during a meeting to discuss measures to deal with the spread of the new coronavirus. Photo: EPA
UNKNOWN FACTORS
Although the authorities have shut down schools nationwide, South Koreans have largely embraced self-isolation and social distancing of their own accord.
In the past fortnight, more than 12,000 businesses have applied for subsidies to pay the wages of employees while they temporarily close their doors due to the outbreak, according to the country’s labour ministry. Many shops in Daegu, the site of more than three-quarters of the country’s cases, have shut their doors, while shopping malls and cinemas across the country have become largely deserted as people stay at home. Catholic churches and Buddhist temples nationwide have suspended mass and prayer services.
“To an outsider, South Korea has handled an enormous surge in cases very well and seemed to mitigate further spread through forms of … passive social isolation,” said Howard P. Forman, a professor of public health policy at Yale School of Management.
Indonesian firms doing business with China face tough times with coronavirus outbreak
12 Mar 2020
Some experts suggest South Korean society’s emphasis on discipline and community may have given it room to avoid implementing more draconian measures.
“This measure appears to have been very successful but is reliant on the local population working with the response,” said Jeremy Rossman, an honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent. “It is not clear how effective this approach would be in other cultures and it does require effective communication with the local population.”
How a secretive church in South Korea became a coronavirus ‘super spreader’
However, South Korea’s response has not been without missteps or critics.
In mid-February, before it emerged that the virus had spread rapidly among Shincheonji followers, Moon made the ill-fated prediction that the outbreak would “disappear before long”.
The Korean Medical Association – the country’s largest association of doctors – and conservative media have criticised the president for not outright banning travel from China.
Nearly 1.5 million South Koreans have signed an online petition calling for Moon’s impeachment over his handling of the outbreak, and his approval rating this week dropped to just under 45 per cent – although, in a sign of reviving fortunes, an opinion poll released on Friday saw the president’s response rated favourably.
Medical workers attend to a woman who was feeling unwell upon her arrival at the Keimyung University hospital in Daegu. Photo: AFP
It is still too early to say whether the response is working – Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology
Some experts caution that it is too early to tell if South Korea truly has the virus under control. The discovery of a new cluster of about 100 infections at a call centre in densely populated Seoul prompted a sudden uptick in cases on Wednesday, raising fears the virus could be on the verge of spreading uncontrollably nationwide.
“It is still too early to say whether the response is working,” said Kim, the president of the Korean Society of Epidemiology. “There is an optical illusion involved in the figures. The daily numbers of new cases appear to be decreasing as the screening of Shincheonji followers is coming to an end, but it must be noted that there are new clusters emerging in Seoul and other areas. We can’t lower vigilance.”
Like elsewhere, the country is facing unknown factors such as warming temperatures in the coming weeks and the arrival of travellers from new and emerging infection hotspots overseas. “We are seeing that in South Korea, large epidemics can be slowed,” said Mackay from the University of Queensland. “Can they be prevented? That will be the challenge for countries who have yet to see widespread community transmission.”
In the face of uncertainty, South Korea appears determined to hold firm to its strategy. During a visit to the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday, Moon said the country’s response had received international recognition and allowed it to avoid the “extreme choice” of sweeping travel bans.
The next day, responding to the World Health Organisation’s decision to declare the virus a global pandemic, the president called on South Koreans to maintain hope that the virus would be overcome.
“It might take more time than we thought,” Moon said. “Everyone, please don’t become fatigued.”
BEIJING (Reuters) – China tentatively plans to hold its delayed annual gathering of parliament in late April or early May, two people involved in preparations told Reuters, as new coronavirus cases in the country drop sharply even as they surge elsewhere.
The annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), known as the “two sessions”, were scheduled for early March but were delayed due to the virus outbreak, with no new date announced.
Holding the events, which typically draw a combined 5,000 delegates to Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, would be a major indication that the Chinese leadership sees things as returning to normal.
The State Council Information Office and the media department of the Standing Committee of the NPC did not immediately respond to faxed requests for comment on Monday.
The outbreak that originated in the central city of Wuhan has infected more than 80,000 people in the country, killed 3,200 and wreaked economic havoc, causing factory output to plunge at the sharpest pace in three decades.
The NPC’s timing is not finalised, and one of the people said the number of attendees may be reduced, with those visiting from outside Beijing needing to undergo quarantine.
People now arriving in the capital from elsewhere in China must spend two weeks in quarantine.
“We still have to play it by ear, as the coronavirus rapidly spreads across the world,” said the person, declining to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
The NPC, China’s parliament, usually sits for at least 10 days. The CPPCC, a largely ceremonial advisory body, runs in parallel.
During parliament, legislators pass laws and unveil economic targets, defence spending projections and other important policy decisions. It is also an occasion for China’s ruling Communist Party to announce major policy and personnel changes.
This year, the NPC is expected to discuss the recent months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong, with China’s economy also expected to be a key item on the agenda.
Japan risks massive financial losses and a political blow for Shinzo Abe’s government if the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled or postponed
The Olympics were last cancelled in 1940 after Japan invaded China and the outbreak of World War II, but the Zika virus did not stop the 2016 Rio Games
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attends a news conference on the coronavirus. An analyst said the cancellation of the Olympic Games would not only be a financial blow, but would also dent the political pride of his government, which wanted to show the world that Japan could host a successful Olympics. Photo: Reuters
, which explains the government’s single-minded commitment to going ahead with the event in the face of the threat posed by the novel coronavirus.
The Japanese government on Wednesday morning reiterated that the Games would go ahead in July as scheduled, with chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga declaring that preparations were continuing despite the spread of the virus worldwide.
The previous day, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) threw its weight behind Tokyo’s position. “We are preparing for a successful Olympic Games, Tokyo 2020,” said IOC head Thomas Bach.
People wearing protective face masks are seen in front of the Olympic rings at the waterfront area at Odaiba Marine Park in Tokyo, Japan. Photo: Reuters
“I would like to encourage all the athletes to continue their preparations … with great confidence and full steam,” he said. “From our side, we will continue to support the athletes and the national Olympic committees.”
Both statements came on the heels of a comment by Seiko Hashimoto, Japan’s minister with responsibility for the Games, who suggested that the contract with the IOC “could be interpreted as allowing for a postponement” until later in the year. On Thursday, Hashimoto acknowledged to the Upper House budget committee that a cancellation or delay of the games would be “unacceptable for the athletes”.
Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University, said a great deal is at stake for Japan as the last time a modern Olympic Games was cancelled was in 1940 – ironically as a result of Japan’s invasion of China in July 1937, and the outbreak of World War II. Meanwhile, the Rio Games in Brazil went on as planned in 2016 despite the outbreak of the Zika virus.
While the 1940 cancellation has largely been forgotten, it would unquestionably cause serious loss of face to the Abe administration if events did conspire to halt Tokyo 2020, he said.
I think it’s much more about the national political pride of ‘Team Abe’Economist Noriko Hama
Noriko Hama, an economist at Doshisha University in Kyoto believes a number of issues are behind the government’s refusal to contemplate the Games being postponed or cancelled, but one is dominant.
“Yes, it’s about the money that has already been spent on facilities and new infrastructure and the windfall from tens of thousands of foreign tourists, but I think it’s much more about the national political pride of ‘Team Abe’,” she said.
“They wanted to show the world that they could do this, that they would be one of the very few cities to host an Olympics for a second time and that it would be a massive success,” she said. “It’s about chest-thumping.”
Protesters hold placards during a demonstration against the Olympics, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and nuclear energy. Photo: AFP
Hama pointed out that many Japanese people had been sceptical about the Games, and for a variety of reasons.
Many are unhappy at the cost, which was previously estimated at 1.06 trillion yen (US$9.81 billion) but organisers confirmed in December had risen to 1.35 trillion yen (US$12.35 billion), plus another 3 billion yen required to move the marathon and walking events from Tokyo to Sapporo, in Hokkaido, to avoid the heat and humidity of the capital.
Others said the Games will cause widespread disruption to the lives of ordinary people and that Tokyo was still not fully prepared for the huge numbers of people that will inevitably flood the city. Some voiced concerns that holding the Games at the peak of a Japanese summer would cause problems for athletes, officials and spectators alike. There have been predictions that the heat is going to cause loss of life.
Only an apocalypse – or government ineptitude – can stop the Olympics
29 Feb 2020
“But there is this strange sort of blind obstinacy that is driving the whole thing forward regardless,” said Hama. “And now the coronavirus has added another layer of very serious concern and I believe the government need to think very carefully what they are going to do.”
Nagy said the Japanese government would be reluctant to postpone the Games as that would “once again tarnish the brand”.
“Seven or eight years ago, Japan was largely seen as a stagnant country that was struggling to shake off the legacy of two decades of economic underperformance, but that changed quite suddenly,” he said.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attend a meeting with other ministers in Tokyo. Photo: Kyodo
“Now the ‘Japan brand’ is strong and vibrant as they have successfully hosted G-7 conferences and, more importantly, last year’s Rugby World Cup.”
The rugby served to put Japan on the world stage, said Nagy, and everyone went away feeling very positive and it worked exceptionally well as a “dry run” for the Olympics.
Other considerations are the massive amount of money that was spent on preparing for the Games, as well as the political capital that Abe was obliged to use up to win the right to be the host city and then smooth the way in the run-up to the event.
Hong Kong backs IOC’s Olympic pledge despite coronavirus threat
4 Mar 2020
Dick Pound, a senior member of the IOC, said there is a window of two to three months in which organisers must make a decision, meaning there could only be clarity by the end of May. He told Associated Press that if the coronavirus situation worsens, it would probably mean a cancellation.
“You just don’t postpone something on the size and scale of the Olympics. There’s so many moving parts, so many countries and different seasons, and competitive seasons, and television seasons. You can’t just say, ‘We’ll do it in October’,” he said. It was also unlikely that the IOC would move the Games to another city at such short notice.
In the meantime, the local organising committee said it had stepped up its measures to protect runners and spectators for the torch relay, including limiting the number of visitors at venues and monitoring the health of runners.
While the Japanese government remains defiant that the Olympics will go ahead as scheduled, Nagy said both Abe and the IOC were walking a “fine line” on making a final decision.
“There are simply no good choices at this point,” he said. “Policymakers just do not know how long this virus is going to stick around, whether it is going to mutate or anything else. But there will come a point when they absolutely have to make a decision.
Coronavirus fear, paranoia reveal cracks in Japan’s polite facade
3 Mar 2020
“If they wait too long and the outbreak goes on longer than anticipated, then they risk the possibility of a poor public turnout and people getting ill,” he said. “But if they cancel too early and the virus disappears, then they will be accused of being alarmist and of wasting all the effort and money that has already gone into the Games.
“The best they can do, in the circumstances, is to use science and facts and compare this outbreak to previous cycles – and then hope the decision that they do make is the right one.”
BEIJING (Reuters) – Shanghai increased airport screening on Saturday as imported coronavirus infections from countries such as Italy and Iran emerge as the biggest source of new cases in China outside Hubei, the province where the outbreak originated.
Mainland China had 99 new confirmed cases on Friday, according to official data. Of the 25 that were outside Hubei, 24 came from outside China.
Shanghai, which had three new cases that originated from abroad on Friday, said it would step up control measures at the border, which had become “the main battlefield”.
At a news conference, Shanghai Customs officials said they city would check all passengers from seriously affected countries for the virus, among other airport measures.
Shanghai already requires passengers flying in from such countries, regardless of nationality, to be quarantined for 14 days. They will now be escorted home in vehicles provided by the government.
Tighter screening has greatly lengthened waiting times at Shanghai’s Pudong International Airport – some passengers say they have had to wait as long as seven hours.
The Shanghai government vowed on Saturday to severely punish passengers who concealed infections.
Beijing police said on Saturday they would work with other departments to prevent imported infections. They said some members of a Chinese family flying in from Italy on March 4 had failed to fill in health declarations accurately, and later tested positive for the virus.
MIGRANT WORKERS
In addition to the growing risk of imported infections, China faces a challenge in trying to get migrant workers back to work by early April.
So far, 78 million migrant workers, or 60% of those who left for the Lunar New Year holiday in January, have returned to work.
Yang Wenzhuang of the National Health Commission (NHC) said that the “risk of contagion from increased population flows and gathering is increasing … We must not relax or lower the bar for virus control”.
But new cases in mainland China continued to decline, with just 99 new cases on Friday, the lowest number the NHC started publishing nationwide figures on Jan. 20, against 143 on Thursday.
Most of these cases, which include infections of Chinese nationals who caught the virus abroad, were in the northwesterly Gansu province, among quarantined passengers who flew into the provincial capital Lanzhou from Iran between March 2 and 5.
For the second day in a row, there were no new infections in Hubei outside the provincial capital Wuhan, where new cases fell to the lowest level since Jan. 25.
The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China so far is 80,651, with 3,070 deaths, up by 28 from Thursday.
WUHAN, March 3 (Xinhua) — Central China’s Hubei Province, the center of the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), is expected to gradually shut down temporary hospitals and cut the number of hospitals designated for the disease, local authorities said Tuesday.
The province will classify areas based on different risks of infection for management as more cities have seen zero growth in newly confirmed cases, according to Tu Yuanchao, deputy head of the provincial health commission.
The province will gradually resume normal medical order while maintaining strict prevention and control measures, Tu said.
In Wuhan, the provincial capital and the epicenter of COVID-19, which is classified as high-risk, the commission has designated hospitals for treating patients in critical and severe conditions and those with emergency medical needs, Tu said.
As of Friday, Wuhan had over 5,000 spare beds in its 16 temporary hospitals, which were converted from gyms, exhibition centers and other facilities.
SEOUL (Reuters) – Makers of soju, South Korea’s national drink and one of the world’s best selling spirits, are jumping into the fight on the largest outbreak of coronavirus outside China by sharing their stockpiles of alcohol with makers of sanitisers.
Disinfectants, such as hand sanitisers, are flying off the shelves, along with medical-grade masks, as infections in South Korea have surged past 5,000 in just over a month since its first patient was diagnosed.
South Korean soju makers have responded to soaring ethanol demand for sanitisers by donating the alcohol that goes into the drink, a distilled spirit with 17% to 20% alcohol by volume traditionally based on rice, but now often wheat or potatoes.
“Ethanol demand for disinfection has grown while supply is limited…we have decided to provide it,” an official of Daesun Distilling, based in the southeastern city of Busan, told Reuters.
To banish the virus, the company has pledged to donate 32 tonnes of ethanol for use in disinfecting buildings and public places in Busan and southeastern Daegu, the city at the centre of South Korea’s outbreak.
“We plan to keep donating until the coronavirus outbreak is stabilised and to donate 50 tonnes more,” added the official, who sought anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to media.
South Koreans drink an average of about 12 shots of soju each week, media say, citing industry figures. Ethanol for alcoholic drinks can be produced by fermentation or distillation, typically from grains and plants.
The chemical can also be made from petrochemical feedstock.
Whether used for liquor or disinfection, both have the same chemical structure and can break apart the virus particle, said Lee Duckhwan, a chemistry professor at Sogang University in Seoul, the capital.
“If there’s any difference, that is the liquor tax imposed on ethanol produced by liquor makers,” Lee said.
The virus fears boosted February sales of soaps and hand sanitisers, including those with an alcohol base, to four times the level a year ago, data from a major retailer Lotte Mart shows. Shares of ethanol producers also jumped.
Following Daesun Distilling, Hallasan Soju, based on the resort island of Jeju, also provided 5 tonnes of ethanol to authorities on Tuesday, a company official said.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Authorities are also asking overseas Chinese to reconsider travel plans
Travellers from countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks who arrive in some parts of China will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine, state media say.
Travellers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated, a Beijing official has said.
Shanghai and Guangdong announced similar restrictions earlier.
Authorities are worried the virus might be imported back into the country.
Although most virus deaths have been in China, Monday saw nine times more new infections outside China than in.
Shanghai said it would require new arrivals from countries with “relatively serious virus conditions” to be isolated, without naming the countries.
Authorities are also asking overseas Chinese to reconsider travel plans.
“For the sake of your family’s health and safety, please strengthen your precautions, carefully decide on your travel plans and minimise mobility,” officials in one southern Chinese province said.
China reported 125 new virus cases on Tuesday – the lowest number of new daily infections in six weeks. There were also 31 more deaths – all in Hubei province, where the virus emerged.
In other developments:
Finance ministers from the G7 countries have said they are “ready to take action”, including fiscal measures to aid the response to the virus and support the global economy
The Pope, who had cancelled a Lent retreat for the first time in his papacy because he was suffering from a cold, has tested negative for the virus, Italian media report
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has put the country into a “state of war” and ordered all government departments to shift to a 24-hour emergency system
Jailed British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is in good health, Iran’s judiciary has said. She was assessed after her husband said she was showing symptoms of Covid-19
Media caption Julie, who lives in Singapore, was diagnosed with coronavirus and then put into isolation
How are different countries affected?
There are now almost 90,000 cases worldwide in about 70 countries, although the vast majority – just under 90% – remain in China, and most of those are in Hubei province where the virus originated late last year.
Of the nearly 8,800 cases outside China, 81% are in four countries – Iran, South Korea, Italy and Japan.
One of the countries worst affected outside China – Italy – said on Monday that the death toll there had risen by 18 to 52. There are 1,835 confirmed cases, most of them in the Lombardy and Veneto areas of the north. Nearly 150 people are said to have recovered.
However, the country is seeing a slowdown in new cases. On Monday, the authorities said there were 258 new cases of the virus – a 16% increase on the previous day – after new cases spiked by 50% on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Iran said the latest death toll from the virus was 77 – although the real figure is believed to be much higher. More than 2,300 people are said to be infected, including senior political figures. The head of Iran’s emergency medical services, Pirhossein Kolivand, was one of them, the Ilna news agency reported on Tuesday.
Some 23 MPs are also reported to have tested positive for the virus, and an official close to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reported on Monday to have died of the disease.
Health officials in the US state of Washington said on Monday that four more people had died, bringing the total there to six. They are the only deaths in the US so far. Local officials say they are buying a hotel to convert it into an isolation hospital.
On Tuesday, Ukraine confirmed its first case of coronavirus, while Portugal, Iceland, Jordan, Tunisia, Armenia, Latvia, Senegal, Morocco and Andorra confirmed their first cases on Monday.
How deadly is Covid-19?
The WHO says the virus appears to particularly affect those over 60, and people already ill.
In the first large analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was 10 times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.
Most patients have only mild symptoms and the death rate appears to be between 2% and 5%, the WHO said.
By comparison, seasonal flu has an average mortality rate of about 0.1%, but is highly infectious – with up to 400,000 people dying from it each year.
Other strains of coronavirus, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers), have much higher death rates than Covid-19.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 