20/04/2020
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
Source: Reuters
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09/04/2020
TOKYO (Reuters) – Uncertainty over Japan’s economic outlook is “extremely high” as the coronavirus pandemic hits output and consumption, central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, stressing his readiness to take additional monetary steps to prevent a deep recession.
While aggressive central bank actions across the globe have eased financial market tensions somewhat, corporate funding strains were worsening, Kuroda told a quarterly meeting of the Bank of Japan’s regional branch managers on Thursday.
“The spread of the coronavirus is having a severe impact on Japan’s economy through declines in exports, output, demand from overseas tourists and private consumption,” he said.
Japan recorded 503 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday – its biggest daily increase since the start of the pandemic – as a state of emergency took effect giving governors stronger legal authority to urge people to stay home and businesses to close.
In contrast to stringent lockdowns in some countries, mandating fines and arrests for non-compliance, enforcement will rely more on peer pressure and a deep-rooted Japanese tradition of respect for authority.
The balancing act underscores the difficulty authorities have in trying to contain the outbreak without imposing a mandatory lockdown that could deal a major blow to an economy already struggling to cope with the virus outbreak.
Hideaki Omura, the governor of the central Japan prefecture of Aichi, said he would declare a state of emergency for his prefecture on Friday.
Omura said Aichi, which includes the city of Nagoya and hosts Toyota Motor Corp, was talking with the central government about being included in the national state of emergency as well, but felt he could not wait any longer to restrict movement.
“Looking at things the past week and watching the situation – the rise in patients, the number without any traceable cause – we judged that it was a very dangerous situation and wanted to make preparations,” he told a news conference.
Even with less stringent restrictions compared with other countries, analysts polled by Reuters expect Japan to slip into a deep recession this year as the virus outbreak wreaks havoc on business and daily life.
Shares of Oriental Land Co (4661.T) fell on Thursday after the operator of Tokyo Disneyland said it would keep the amusement park shut until mid-May.
Entertainment facility operator Uchiyama Holdings (6059.T) said it was closing 43 karaoke shops and 11 restaurants until May 6.
“For the time being, we won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps if needed, with a close eye on developments regarding the coronavirus outbreak,” Kuroda said.
Kuroda’s remarks highlight the strong concern policymakers have over the outlook for Japan’s economy and how companies continue to struggle to generate cash, despite government and central bank promises to flood the economy with funds.
At its policy meeting later this month, the BOJ is likely to make a rare projection that the world’s third-largest economy will shrink this year, sources have told Reuters.
The BOJ eased monetary policy in March by pledging to boost purchases of assets ranging from government bonds, commercial paper, corporate bonds and trust funds investing in stocks.
The government also rolled out a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package to soften the economic blow.
Source: Reuters
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07/02/2020
TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) on Friday said production at all of its China plants would remain suspended through Feb. 16, joining a growing number of automakers facing stoppages due to supply chain issues as the coronavirus spreads.
The Japanese automaker, which operates 12 vehicle and components factories in China, said it would extend its production stoppage “after considering various factors, including guidelines from local and region governments, parts supply, and logistics.
“For the week of Feb. 10, we will be preparing for the return to normal operation from Feb. 17 and beyond,” it said in a statement.
The decision extends Toyota’s initial plans to suspend operations through Sunday, and comes as the threat from the coronavirus crisis closes in on the global auto industry.
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and affiliate Kia Motors (000270.KS) said on Friday that they plan to restart production at their Chinese factories on Feb. 17, from a previously planned Feb.9.
“We will take preventive measures against infection at factories,” a spokeswoman said.
A growing number of car makers, including those who do not make cars in China, are flagging the possibility that their global operations could take a hit if they cannot access parts supplies from the country, where there are transportation bans to stop the virus spreading.
Suzuki Motor Corp said it was looking at the possibility of procuring “made in China” car parts from other regions if it cannot access parts due to ongoing stoppages.
The Japanese automaker does not produce or sell any cars in China, but procures some components there for its plants in India, where it controls around half of the passenger vehicle market via its local unit Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MRTI.NS).
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI) on Thursday said one of its European plants could close within two to four weeks if Chinese parts suppliers cannot get back to work soon, while Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) earlier this week suspended production at its South Korean plants due to a shortage of China-made parts.
Parts made in China are used in millions of vehicles assembled elsewhere, and China’s Hubei province – the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak – is a major hub for vehicle parts production and shipments.
To limit the spread of the virus, Chinese authorities have announced an extended holiday period in Hubei and 10 other provinces, which account for more than two-thirds of the country’s vehicle production.
IHS Automotive projects plant closures through Feb. 10 would result in a 7% cut in vehicle production in China for the first quarter.
In a note, its analysts said extended closures into March may result in lost production of over 1.7 million vehicles for the period, a decline of roughly one-third of pre-virus output expectations.
“If the situation lingers into mid-March, and plants in adjacent provinces are also idled, the China-wide supply chain disruption caused by parts shortages from Hubei, a major component hub, could have a wide-reaching impact,” they said.
Other industry experts said suppliers had built up a cushion of parts in inventory and in-transit ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday in late January. Those will start to run out if factories cannot get back to work next week, or if flights to and from China remain limited.
Toyota said its plants outside China were operating as normal for the moment but it has said it was also considering the possibility of manufacturing parts commonly made in China in other regions.
Source: Reuters
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05/02/2020
PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus (AIR.PA) has prolonged a planned closure of its final assembly plant in Tianjin, China, as a result of the coronavirus emergency, the planemaker said on Wednesday, adding it was monitoring for any signs of impact on deliveries.
It appears to be the first significant impact on aerospace production since the coronavirus outbreak, whose death toll has risen to nearly 500.
Airbus has said it is planning to raise output from the plant to six A320-family aircraft a month, just over 10% of Airbus narrowbody production, in early 2020 from a previous rate of four.
“The Tianjin final assembly line facility is currently closed,” Airbus said in a statement.
“Airbus is constantly evaluating the situation and monitoring any potential knock-on effects to production and deliveries and will try to mitigate via alternative plans where necessary.”
Industry sources said the Tianjin plant had been closed along with many businesses over the Chinese New Year but was due to reopen at the end of January.
The reopening has been suspended due to the virus outbreak hitting the logistics involved in keeping the line open.
Tianjin is one of two Airbus aircraft final assembly lines outside Europe, alongside a sister plant in Mobile, Alabama.
Source: Reuters
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