Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
The third session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opens at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, May 21, 2020. (Xinhua/Li Tao)
BEIJING, May 21 (Xinhua) — China’s top political advisory body started its annual session Thursday afternoon in Beijing.
Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders attended the opening meeting of the third session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), held at the Great Hall of the People.
Attendees at the meeting paid a silent tribute to martyrs who died fighting COVID-19 and compatriots who lost their lives in the epidemic.
The agenda for the session was reviewed and approved at the meeting.
Wang Yang, chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, delivered a work report of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee to the session.
The report noted the role of political advisors in the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, saying that they have submitted more than 1,300 reports and suggestions on preventing and controlling the epidemic, resuming work and production, stabilizing public expectations and strengthening law-based governance.
Giving full play to role of the CPPCC as a specialist consultative body, 71 consultation meetings, 97 research trips as well as online consultations were organized in the past year, it said.
The report made arrangements for the CPPCC’s work in 2020 in six aspects, urging political advisors to fulfil their duties around achieving a moderately prosperous society in all respects.
Attendees were also briefed on the handling of proposals submitted since the previous annual session of the top political advisory body.
Image copyright BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIImage caption Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks
Speculation and rumour about Kim Jong-un’s health may amount to nothing, but questions about who might succeed him in the short or long term will always be there. The BBC spoke to analysts about the contenders and whether history is on their side.
A male member of the Kim family has been in charge of North Korea ever since its founding by Kim Il-sung in 1948 – and the mythology of this family runs deep throughout society.
Propaganda about its greatness begins for citizens before they can even read: pre-schoolers sing a song called: “I want to see our leader Kim Jong-un.”
So how can you imagine a North Korea without this symbolic and political figure at the top? How would elites organise themselves, as well as society as a whole?
The easy answer is: we don’t know. More interestingly, they don’t know either. They have never had to do it.
Image copyrightXINHUAImage captionKim Il-sung is the founder of North Korea and his son Kim Jong-il took over
As Kim Jong-un was being prepared for power, they even began using the term “Paektu Bloodline” to help legitimise his rule. Paektu is the sacred and mythologised mountain where Kim Il-sung is said to have waged guerrilla war and where Kim Jong-il was reportedly born. Kim Jong-un still goes there when he wants to emphasise important policy decisions.
There has always been a Kim at the ideological heart of the country.
What would North Korea be like without such an heir? Kim Jong-un, 36, is believed to have children – but they are far too young. It is thought he has three children, the oldest being 10 and the youngest three. Kim Jong-un himself was considered young when he took power – he was 27.
It is likely that some sort of group leadership would emerge, perhaps as in Vietnam, that leans heavily on the founder’s teachings and legitimacy to boost their own standing.
Observers can track who holds certain key positions and can follow news and open-source intelligence about important institutions, but can’t really tell how factions are developing, nor who is holding power through personal rather than institutional bonds. Moreover, sometimes vice or deputy directors wield more real power than the titular heads of institutions. This makes all predictions extremely difficult.
The three remaining Kims
Image copyrightPATRICK SEMANSKY – POOL /GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yo-jong, as the only woman in the top leadership, has sparked fascination
The are three Kims who could potentially be involved in the political make-up of North Korea if Kim Jong-un were to disappear. They all face limitations in carrying on family rule.
The first is Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister. She is said to have been a favourite of her father who commented on her precocity, her interest in politics from a young age. Her manner is efficient, mild and one suspects rather observant. Much has been made of her closeness to her brother. At the Singapore Trump-Kim summit she was famously on hand to pass him a pen to sign the agreement with, and at the next summit in Hanoi, was pictured peeking out from behind corners as her brother posed for statesman-like photos.
Yet she was not above a temporary demotion after the Hanoi summit – purportedly because of its failure although this will never be confirmed. She doesn’t sit on the top policy-making body, the State Affairs Commission, but is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) of the Workers’ Party of Korea. These may seem like incomprehensible acronyms but the PAD is a powerful organisation that ensures ideological loyalty in the system.
She is a woman, however, and this makes it hard to imagine her occupying the top position in such a deeply patriarchal country. North Korea is an extremely male state, in which gender carries rigid expectations. Being supreme leader, and certainly running the military, does not fit in the range of womanly duties.
The second is Kim Jong-chul. He is Kim Jong-un’s older brother, but has never appeared interested in politics or power. (He is known to be interested in Eric Clapton.) At most, he could be a symbolic link to the Kim family: perhaps made the head of a foundation and put forward to read the odd speech.
The final one is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother. His mother – Kim Jong-il’s stepmother – was angling to have him become Kim Il-sung’s successor. She failed and was sidelined by Kim Jong-il as he rose in influence. Kim Pyong-il was sent to Europe in 1979, where he has held various ambassadorships, returning to North Korea only last year. This means it is very unlikely he has the network to be a central player in elite politics in Pyongyang.
The second-most powerful man in North Korea right now
Image copyrightALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESImage captionAs special envoy for Kim Jong-un Choe Ryong-hae (right) has met foreign dignitaries
There are other individuals who have been central in the Kim Jong-un era, but it is difficult to know who among them would form co-operative relationships and who would compete with one another.
One is Choe Ryong-hae. He has had his ups and downs under Kim Jong-un, but having weathered a few storms currently sits on the presidium of the politburo and is also first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission. Last year he became the first new president in 20 years, replacing the aging Kim Yong-nam – so he is the person who represents the North at international engagements.
Choe has also held high positions in the military and the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) of the Worker’s Party of Korea, responsible for enforcing loyalty throughout the regime. This is an extremely powerful organisation: it enforces the adherence of all citizens to North Korea’s ideology. He is probably the second most powerful man in North Korea.
The old spymasters and rising political grandees
Image copyrightOLIVIER DOULIERY-POOL/GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yong-chol travelled to Washington DC to meet Donald Trump
Another is Kim Yong-chol. This general paved the way for the Trump-Kim summits, meeting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo several times. He has been head of the United Front Department (responsible for relations with South Korea) and the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s main intelligence service. He seems to have suffered a demotion following the collapse talks with the United States, but it is unlikely this spymaster will remain obscure for long.
Yet another is Kim Jae-ryong. As well as being on the State Affairs Commission, he is Premier of the Cabinet, a moderately influential position. Relatively little is known about him, but his star has risen in the past years as others have fallen. He is known for managing industries and ran the most isolated province, home to key military-industrial sites, for several years. This may mean he has been closely involved in the nuclear program.
Jong Kyong-taek is responsible for the State Security Department, which investigates and punishes political crimes. It also helps physically protect the leadership. These are crucial responsibilities that help enforce stability in the system.
Hwang Pyong-so is another official who has held top military posts and has run the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era. Like Choe (and many others) he has been disciplined; he doesn’t seem to have been rehabilitated in the same way, however. Other 2010s foreign policy stalwarts Ri Yong-ho and Ri Su-yong have also seen roles diminish recently. They have been replaced by Ri Son-gwon and Kim Hyung-jun. The former is said to be an ally of Kim Yong-chol.
The military enforcers
A handful of top generals of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) would also certainly exert influence in any transition period. Currently, two men sit atop the General Political Bureau of the KPA, Kim Su-gil and Kim Won-hong. This bureau enforces political loyalty in the military, something that would be absolutely crucial during periods of uncertainty.
Kim Won-hong, helps illustrate how difficult it is to predict how power would be shared if Kim Jong-un were no longer there. Kim Won-hong and Hwang Pyong-so had been thought to be rivals, competing to influence Kim Jong-un at the other’s expense.
Amongst top elites, who would clash and who would ally? Would there be pro and anti-Kim Yo-jong factions? Would the fear of instability stop rivalries from getting out of hand? After all, it is in no elite politician’s interest to see the state collapse, opening the door for some kind of takeover by South Korea, or even China.
There is currently no perfect contender: his sister would have to overcome the sexism and the break from tradition of a male heir. Anybody else is not directly descended from that all-important Paektu bloodline. but in the end, they will all have to think of the unity of the state they have defied every international norm to preserve.
Faced with a backlash from the West over its handling of the early stages of the pandemic, Beijing has been quietly gaining ground in Asia
Teams of experts and donations of medical supplies have been largely welcomed by China’s neighbours
Despite facing some criticism from the West, China’s Asian neighbours have welcomed its medical expertise and vital supplies. Photo: Xinhua
While China’s campaign to mend its international image in the wake of its handling of the coronavirus health crisis has been met with scepticism and even a backlash from the US and its Western allies, Beijing has been quietly gaining ground in Asia.
Teams of experts have been sent to Cambodia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Pakistan and soon to Malaysia, to share their knowledge from the pandemic’s ground zero in central China.
China has also held a series of online “special meetings” with its Asian neighbours, most recently on Tuesday when Premier Li Keqiang discussed his country’s experiences in combating the disease and rebooting a stalled economy with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Japan and South Korea.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang speaks to Asean Plus Three leaders during a virtual summit on Tuesday. Photo: AP
Many Western politicians have publicly questioned Beijing’s role and its subsequent handling of the crisis but Asian leaders – including Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – have been reluctant to blame the Chinese government, while also facing criticism at home for not closing their borders with China soon enough to prevent the spread of the virus.
An official from one Asian country said attention had shifted from the early stages of the outbreak – when disgruntled voices among the public were at their loudest – as people watched the virus continue its deadly spread through their homes and across the world.
“Now everybody just wants to get past the quarantine,” he said. “China has been very helpful to us. It’s also closer to us so it’s easier to get shipments from them. The [medical] supplies keep coming, which is what we need right now.”
The official said also that while the teams of experts sent by Beijing were mainly there to observe and offer advice, the gesture was still appreciated.
Another Asian official said the tardy response by Western governments in handling the outbreak had given China an advantage, despite its initial lack of transparency over the outbreak.
“The West is not doing a better job on this,” he said, adding that his government had taken cues from Beijing on the use of propaganda in shaping public opinion and boosting patriotic sentiment in a time of crisis.
“Because it happened in China first, it has given us time to observe what works in China and adopt [these measures] for our country,” the official said.
Experts in the region said that Beijing’s intensifying campaign of “mask diplomacy” to reverse the damage to its reputation had met with less resistance in Asia.
Why China’s ‘mask diplomacy’ is raising concern in the West
29 Mar 2020
“Over the past two months or so, China, after getting the Covid-19 outbreak under control, has been using a very concerted effort to reshape the narrative, to pre-empt the narrative that China is liable for this global pandemic, that China has to compensate other countries,” said Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based academic and former policy adviser to the Philippine government.
“It doesn’t help that the US is in lockdown with its domestic crisis and that we have someone like President Trump who is more interested in playing the blame game rather than acting like a global leader,” he said.
Shahriman Lockman, a senior analyst with the foreign policy and security studies programme at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said that as the US had withdrawn into its own affairs as it struggled to contain the pandemic, China had found Southeast Asia a fertile ground for cultivating an image of itself as a provider.
China’s first-quarter GDP shrinks for the first time since 1976 as coronavirus cripples economy
Beijing’s highly publicised delegations tasking medical equipment and supplies had burnished that reputation, he said, adding that the Chinese government had also “quite successfully shaped general Southeast Asian perceptions of its handling of the pandemic, despite growing evidence that it could have acted more swiftly at the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan”.
“Its capacity and will to build hospitals from scratch and put hundreds of millions of people on lockdown are being compared to the more indecisive and chaotic responses seen in the West, especially in Britain and the United States,” he said.
Coronavirus droplets may travel further than personal distancing guidelines
16 Apr 2020
Lockman said Southeast Asian countries had also been careful to avoid getting caught in the middle of the deteriorating relationship between Beijing and Washington as the two powers pointed fingers at each other over the origins of the new coronavirus.
“The squabble between China and the United States about the pandemic is precisely what Asean governments would go to great lengths to avoid because it is seen as an expression of Sino-US rivalry,” he said.
“Furthermore, the immense Chinese market is seen as providing an irreplaceable route towards Southeast Asia’s post-pandemic economic recovery.”
Aaron Connelly, a research fellow in Southeast Asian political change and foreign policy with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, said Asian countries’ dependence on China had made them slow to blame China for the pandemic.
“Anecdotally, it seems to me that most Southeast Asian political and business elites have given Beijing a pass on the initial cover-up of Covid-19, and high marks for the domestic lockdown that followed,” he said.
“This may be motivated reasoning, because these elites are so dependent on Chinese trade and investment, and see little benefit in criticising China.”
China and Vietnam ‘likely to clash again’ as they build maritime militias
12 Apr 2020
The cooperation with its neighbours as they grapple with the coronavirus had not slowed China’s military and research activities in the disputed areas of the South China Sea – a point of contention that would continue to cloud relations in the region, experts said.
Earlier this month an encounter in the South China Sea with a Chinese coastguard vessel led to the sinking of a fishing boat from Vietnam, which this year assumed chairmanship of Asean.
And in a move that could spark fresh regional concerns, shipping data on Thursday showed a controversial Chinese government survey ship, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, had moved closer to Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone.
The survey ship was embroiled in a months-long stand-off last year with Vietnamese vessels within Hanoi’s exclusive economic zone and was spotted again on Tuesday 158km (98 miles) off the Vietnamese coast.
BEIJING, Oct. 2 (Xinhua) — While turning 70 often signals the beginning of a person’s twilight years, for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) it marks a golden age full of hope and vigor.
The PRC celebrated its 70th birthday on Oct. 1. China’s transformation from an agricultural society isolated from the West into the world’s second-largest economy open wide is nothing short of a miracle.
More importantly, it has charted a new path for developing countries to modernize.
Seven decades ago, the war-ravaged country started from scratch. Observers are astonished at China’s large-scale modernization, its reduction of the number of people living in poverty and the sheer volume of its consumer market. Their heads have been turned not only because of the speed of the transition but also by the unique path taken to realize this great transformation.
Reflecting on its past and present, and through experimentation, China has identified and will continue down the right path — socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Reform is the engine of China’s miracle. There is no ready-made solution for the development issues facing China. From creating special economic zones to building free trade pilot zones, from carrying out family-based production contracts to revitalizing state-owned enterprises, China has been one of the most successful countries in piloting reforms over the past decades. Now the reform is more in-depth and more comprehensive in economic, political, cultural, social and ecological sectors.
The Chinese government stresses being effective and responsive to the public interest. Development outlines are far-sighted. For example, the five-year plans are made to deal with comprehensive aspects that concern human development: food, transportation, communication, environment, health and education. These plans are a priority for the government.
Of course these achievements could never have been realized without the leadership of the CPC.
From the people and for the people, the CPC has always upheld its principle of striving for the happiness of the people and the rejuvenation of the nation.
At a life-or-death moment, the CPC shouldered the mission of saving the nation from existential peril. After 28 years of bloody struggle, it led the Chinese people to overthrow the “three mountains” placed on their heads and put an end to the semi-colonial and semi-feudal society of old China. Gone are the days where any attempt to bully China with “fists” or “intimidation” would succeed.
Despite overseas doubts, misunderstandings and predictions that its survival would be short-lived, the CPC has stunned the world with its leadership, innovative theories and ability to unite and organize the people.
It abolished the agricultural tax that had been in place for more than 2,600 years; it established a political system in which people are masters of their own affairs; it did its utmost to help people shake off poverty and keep nearly 1.4 billion people well-off.
No ruling party in the world can match the CPC’s record of adhering to the truth, versing itself in self-reform and self-purification, and turning impossibility into certainty in the face of difficulties and challenges, again and again.
The 70-year journey was never smooth. Trials and hardships abounded. The Chinese people dealt with floods and massive earthquakes and guarded against SARS and financial tsunamis. Yet these twists and turns never blocked China’s way forward but made it more sober, determined and mature.
Today, more than at any other time in history, China is closer to, more confident and more capable of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. However, lofty goals are never easily reached.
The world has been undergoing tremendous changes unseen in a century. Resistant external forces and headwinds still remain. “Zero-sum game” and “superior civilization” mentalities, among others, are prevailing.
The CPC will continue to lead the Chinese people to fight trade bullying, blackmailing and hegemonism. Only the CPC can lead China to emerge as a stronger country.
It all started long ago, and the journey is far from over.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Spirituality, politics and tourism: welcome to the Kumbh Mela, the world’s largest gathering of humanity, that begins next month in India.
Labourers work on an under-construction pontoon bridge spanning the river Ganga ahead of the “Kumbh Mela”, or the Pitcher Festival, in Allahabad, India, November 20, 2018. REUTERS/Jitendra Prakash
During the Kumbh Mela, to be held in Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh, millions of pilgrims including naked, ash-smeared ascetics, will bathe at the confluence of the Ganges, the Yamuna, and a mythical third river, the Saraswati.
Devout Hindus believe that bathing in the waters of the Ganges absolves people of sins and bathing at the time of the Kumbh brings salvation from the cycle of life and death.
The government says about 100 million to 150 million people, including one million foreign tourists, are expected to attend over the eight-week festival period beginning on January 15, and the scale of the efforts to feed and house the pilgrims is immense.
Organisers are erecting temporary bridges, 600 mass kitchens, more than 100,000 portable toilets, and vast tents, each sleeping thousands of pilgrims at a time, in a pop-up city on the banks of the two rivers.
And yet, based on tradition, there shouldn’t be quite such a giant event next year – which is where politics and tourism promotion comes in.
The Kumbh Mela is traditionally held every three years in one of four cities along India’s sacred rivers, with one of the largest of those in Prayagraj. The next Kumbh Mela, meaning “festival of the pot”, was due to be held in the city in 2025.
But with a general election due by May in which the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough contest, the northern state of Uttar Pradesh has transformed a smaller Ardh, or “half” Kumbh Mela, into a full version of the festival.
The BJP controls both the federal and the Uttar Pradesh governments.
And this “half Kumbh” may by some measures end up being one of the biggest Kumbhs yet because of the state’s massive promotional efforts, especially as Prayagraj – which until recently was known as Allahabad – is seen as the holiest of the four sites.
Besides the upcoming election, the promotion coincides with an international charm offensive to improve the image of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state of more than 220 million people with a reputation for poverty and violence.
But the state’s chief minister Yogi Adityanath, a Hindu monk who is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has an eye for publicity, has also been driving support for any event that celebrates the dominance of Hindu culture in India, and marginalises the nation’s Muslim minority.
PLACE OF SACRIFICE
It was Adityanath who in October renamed Allahabad, a city of six million where there are nearly 800,000 Muslims, as Prayagraj, from its ancient name of Prayag meaning “place of sacrifice” in Sanskrit.
Allahabad is a Muslim name given to the city by a Mughal emperor in 1575.
“It is part of a Hindu nationalist agenda and is very worrying to us,” said Zafaryab Jilani, a senior member of the All-India Muslim Personal Law Board, that liaises with the government on Muslim affairs.
“There is no justification for changing these names.”
Neither side is expecting tensions to lead to violence during the festival, although a stampede at the last Kumbh Mela held in Allahabad in 2013, as it was then known, killed 42.
“Muslims have always respected the Kumbh. We will not challenge it in public,” Jilani said.
Officials do not expect clashes either, but have boosted the number of police on duty compared with previous events.
“People who are not involved will not come,” said a state official involved in the preparations. “This is not a problem for us.”
But he added: “To ensure security and safety, there will be five times the number of police officers compared to the previous Kumbh.”
Officials say the festival won’t be a “half” event by any means.
“This is the way we are taking it forward. There is nothing which is half,” said Awanish Kumar Awasthi, a senior official in charge of tourism in the Uttar Pradesh government.
The state government has promoted the Kumbh Mela at several tourism expositions in Europe, and has invited representatives of every country in the world to attend. Last Saturday, foreign diplomats visited Prayagraj to witness the set-up.
The festival has its roots in a Hindu tradition that says the god Vishnu wrested a golden pot containing the nectar of immortality from demons. In a 12-day fight for possession, four drops fell to earth, in the cities of Prayagraj, Haridwar, Ujjain and Nasik, who share the Kumbhs as a result.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 