Oh dear. It’s a case of “one the one hand, but on the other … “
24/02/2013
* Railway linking China, ASEAN becomes operational
New Orient Express slowly taking shape.
Xinhua: “A railway that links southwest China’s Yunnan Province with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries became operational on Saturday after seven years of construction, local railway authorities said.
The railway between Yuxi and Mengzi is part of the eastern line of the planned Pan-Asia Railway network.
The 141-km railway has a designed maximum speed of 120 km per hour. It passes through 35 tunnels and crosses 61 bridges, which together account for 54.95 percent of the eastern line’s total length.
The eastern line also consists of Kunming-Yuxi Railway, which had been in operation, and the Mengzi-Hekou Railway that is under construction and scheduled to be operational end of next year.
Upon the full completion of the eastern line, it will further open up China’s southwest, improve transportation and boost economic development along the line, experts said.
The Pan-Asia Railway network also consists of central and western lines and is an international railway project that will bring China closer with southeast Asia.”
via Railway linking China, ASEAN becomes operational – Xinhua | English.news.cn.
see also:
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- Emergence of ASEAN impacts both China, Taiwan (wantchinatimes.com)
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24/02/2013
* Will China Ever Be No. 1?
Foreign Policy: “Will China continue to grow three times faster than the United States to become the No. 1 economy in the world in the decade ahead? Does China aspire to be the No. 1 power in Asia and ultimately the world? As it becomes a great power, will China follow the path taken by Japan in becoming an honorary member of the West?
Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Despite current punditry to the contrary, the surest answer to these questions is: No one knows. But statesmen, investors, and citizens in the region and beyond are placing their bets. And U.S. policymakers, as they shape the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia, are making these judgments too. In formulating answers to these questions, if you could consult just one person in the world today, who would it be? Henry Kissinger, the American who has spent by far the most time with China’s leaders since Mao, has an answer: Lee Kuan Yew.
Lee is the founding father of modern Singapore and was its prime minister from 1959 to 1990. He has honed his wisdom over more than a half century on the world stage, serving as advisor to Chinese leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping and American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. This gives him a uniquely authoritative perspective on the geopolitics and geoeconomics of East and West.
Lee Kuan Yew’s answers to the questions above are: yes, yes, and no. Yes, China will continue growing several times faster than the United States and other Western competitors for the next decade, and probably for several more. Yes, China’s leaders are serious about becoming the top power in Asia and on the globe. As he says: “Why not? Their reawakened sense of destiny is an overpowering force.” No, China will not simply take its seat within the postwar order created by the United States. Rather, “it is China’s intention to become the greatest power in the world — and to be accepted as China, not as an honorary member of the west,” he said in a 2009 speech.
Western governments repeatedly appeal to China to prove its sense of international responsibility by being a good citizen in the global order set up by Western leaders in the aftermath of World War II. But as Kissinger observes, these appeals are “grating to a country that regards itself as adjusting to membership in an international system designed in its absence on the basis of programs it did not participate in developing.”
via Will China Ever Be No. 1? – By Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill | Foreign Policy.
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/prognosis/superpowers/
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- China will never match US in innovation: Lee Kuan Yew (wantchinatimes.com)
- “The Future of U.S.-China Relations,” a Belfer Center Director’s Seminar with Ambassador Robert Blackwill (belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu)
13/02/2013
* The Economic Impact of a War Between Japan & China
“Global economists are keeping their eyes glued to the Asia-Pacific region, where a bitter feud is brewing between two of the world’s most powerful nations over a small collectivity of islands in the East China Sea. The Chinese government argues that a treaty signed during the first Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) conferred ownership of the islands to China. Japan has long disputed these claims, and today argues that the islands are integral to its national identity.
English: Japan_China_Peace_Treaty_17_April_1895. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7SA3p8ys-s&feature=youtu.be
The argument came to a head last September, when a boycott of Japanese products led Chinese demonstrators to target fellow citizens who owned Japanese cars. Three months later, the situation escalated when when Japanese jets confronted a Chinese plane flying over the islands; no shots were fired, but the act of antagonism has set a troubling precedent between the military forces of both nations.
The conflict between China and Japan has put the United States in a precarious position: if a full-scale war were to erupt, the U.S. would be forced to choose between a long-time ally (Japan) and its largest economic lender (China). Last year, China’s holdings in U.S. securities reached $1.73 trillion and goods exported from the U.S. to China exceeded $100 billion. The two countries also share strong economic ties due to the large number of American companies that outsource jobs to China.
However, the U.S. government may be legally obligated to defend Japan. In November, the U.S. Senate added an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that officially recognizes Japan’s claims to the disputed islands; the U.S. and Japan are also committed to a mutual defense treaty that requires either country to step in and defend the other when international disputes occur. Not honoring this treaty could very easily tarnish America’s diplomatic image.
The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are collectively responsible for 55 percent of the global GDP and 44 percent of the world’s trade. A major conflict between the region’s two largest economies would not only impose a harsh dilemma on U.S. diplomats, but also have a significant impact on the entire global economy. It is in every nation’s best interest that the Chinese and Japanese settle their territorial dispute peacefully.”
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/01/25/china-japan-move-to-cool-down-territorial-dispute/
12/02/2013
* China joins U.S., Japan in condemning North Korea nuclear test
China has a difficult choice: act firmly and materially by reducing aid and upset and possibly destabilise North Korea that may lead to a reunified Korea facing the West. Or act softly and North Korea goes merrily on its own sweet way as it has done for decades; and may be the cause of an intentional or inadvertent nuclear war. The world and esp the US will be watching carefully.
Reuters: “North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of existing U.N. resolutions, drawing condemnation from around the world, including from its only major ally, China, which summoned the North Korean ambassador to protest.
The reclusive North said the test was an act of self-defense against “U.S. hostility” and threatened further, stronger steps if necessary.
It said the test had “greater explosive force” than the 2006 and 2009 tests. Its KCNA news agency said it had used a “miniaturized” and lighter nuclear device, indicating that it had again used plutonium which is more suitable for use as a missile warhead.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the third of his line to rule the country, has presided over two long-range rocket launches and a nuclear test during his first year in power, pursuing policies that have propelled his impoverished and malnourished country closer to becoming a nuclear weapons power.
China, which has shown signs of increasing exasperation with the recent bellicose tone of its neighbor, summoned the North Korean ambassador in Beijing and protested sternly, the Foreign Ministry said.
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said China was “strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed” to the test and urged North Korea to “stop any rhetoric or acts that could worsen situations and return to the right course of dialogue and consultation as soon as possible”.
China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.”
via China joins U.S., Japan in condemning North Korea nuclear test | Reuters.
07/02/2013
* China, Malaysia Plan $3.4 Billion Industrial Park in Kuantan
Bloomberg: “Chinese and Malaysian companies agreed to invest 10.5 billion ringgit ($3.4 billion) on an industrial park in the Southeast Asian nation which will include steel and aluminum plants as well as a palm oil refinery.
China’s Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group will jointly build the park in Kuantan with Malaysia’s Pahang state government and property developer SP Setia Bhd. (SPSB), according to a statement from the East Coast Economic Region Development Council. Jia Qinglin, chairman of China’s top advisory body, attended a ground-breaking ceremony with Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak today.
Jia, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, is on a four-day visit aimed at boosting business ties with the commodities-rich Southeast Asian nation. Najib proposed building the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park after the countries agreed last year to develop a similar estate in Qinzhou in southern China’s Guangxi region. Both cities have ports.
“A distinct and competitive supply chain will emerge between them,” Najib said in a speech. “There will be cross- border movement of manufactured goods with Kuantan Port and Qinzhou Port serving as trans-shipment hubs redistributing goods to markets around the world.”
Guangxi Beibu, SP Setia and the Pahang state government will invest 2.5 billion ringgit to develop the Malaysian park, according to the statement. The Chinese company will spend another 5 billion ringgit to build a steel plant, aluminum processing facilities and a palm oil refinery within the estate, plus 3 billion ringgit to expand Kuantan’s port with IJM Corp. (IJM)
The palm oil refinery will be a joint venture with Malaysia’s Rimbunan Hijau Group, it said.
“This year, we expect more than 1 billion ringgit of Chinese foreign direct investment in Malaysia,” Najib said, adding that the Kuantan projects should create 8,500 jobs. “Over the next five years, we expect two-way trade to reach $100 billion.””
via China, Malaysia Plan $3.4 Billion Industrial Park in Kuantan – Bloomberg.
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06/02/2013
* India concerned by China role in Pakistan port
Reuters: “China’s role in operating a strategically important port in Pakistan is a matter of concern for India, its defense minister said on Wednesday, as New Delhi and Beijing jostle for influence in the region.
Indian policy-makers have long been wary of a string of strategically located ports being built by Chinese companies in its neighborhood, as India beefs up its military clout to compete with its Asian rival.
Management of Gwadar port, around 600 km (370 miles) from Karachi and close to Pakistan’s border with Iran, was handed over to state-run Chinese Overseas Port Holdings last week after previously being managed by Singapore’s PSA International.
“It is a matter of concern to us,” Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony told reporters when asked about Chinese control of the port.
When complete, the port, which is close to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane, is seen opening up an energy and trade corridor from the Gulf, across Pakistan to western China, and could be used by the Chinese Navy, analysts say.
“It will enable (China) to deploy military capability in the region,” said Jay Ranade, of the Centre for Air Power Studies and a former additional secretary at the government of India. “Having control of Gwadar, China is basically getting an entry into the Arabian Sea and the Gulf.”
China has also funded ports in Hambantota, Sri Lanka, and Chittagong in Bangladesh, both India’s neighbors.
“Gwadar is a more serious development than the others,” Ranade said, as the Pakistani port gives China base facilities.”
via India concerned by China role in Pakistan port | Reuters.
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/geopolitics-chinese/
02/02/2013
* Venezuela seeks $4 billion China loan, $2 billion Chevron credit
Reuters: “Venezuela‘s government and state oil company PDVSA are in urgent talks over a long-expected $6 billion in loans from China and U.S. energy giant Chevron that would help relieve the nation’s strained finances, sources close to the discussions said.
Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said this week that PDVSA had no plans to issue any more dollar-denominated bonds, confounding widespread speculation that one was planned to address a chronic shortage of dollars for local businesses.
That has left the government in the OPEC member seeking other forms of financing, amid pressure to order a devaluation of its currency that would ease the pressure on its cash flow by providing more bolivars for every dollar of oil sales.
Its top priority is a deal agreed last year with China Development Bank for a $4 billion loan this year.
Venezuela has borrowed $36 billion from China in recent years – repaid with oil shipments – making Beijing the single biggest foreign source of funding for the country’s socialist government, according to finance ministry data.
But a source close to the talks told Reuters that the Chinese team wanted to toughen the terms of the deal.
“The Chinese have introduced a clause that the Venezuela team decided to reject,” the source said, without describing the proposed change. “That was holding things up until recently, but they are coming to an agreement on the amendment.””
via Exclusive: Venezuela seeks $4 billion China loan, $2 billion Chevron credit – sources | Reuters.
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27/01/2013
* China could prove ultimate winner in Afghanistan
SCMP: “China, long a bystander to the conflict in Afghanistan, is stepping up its involvement as US-led forces prepare to withdraw, attracted by the country’s vast mineral resources but concerned that any post-next year chaos could embolden Islamist insurgents in its own territory.
Cheered on by the US and other Western governments, which see Asia’s giant as a potentially stabilising force, China could prove the ultimate winner in Afghanistan – having shed no blood and not much aid.
Security – or the lack of it – remains the key challenge: Chinese enterprises have already bagged three multibillion dollar investment projects, but they won’t be able to go forward unless conditions get safer. While the Chinese do not appear ready to rush into any vacuum left by the withdrawal of foreign troops, a definite shift towards a more hands-on approach to Afghanistan is under way.
China is the only actor who can foot the level of investment needed in Afghanistan to make it succeed and stick it out
Beijing signed a strategic partnership last summer with the war-torn country. This was followed in September with a trip to Kabul by its top security official, the first by a leading Chinese government figure in 46 years, and the announcement that China would train 300 Afghan police officers. China is also showing signs of willingness to help negotiate a peace agreement as Nato prepares to pull out in two years.
It’s a new role for China, as its growing economic might gives it a bigger stake in global affairs. Success, though far from guaranteed, could mean a big payoff for a country hungry for resources to sustain its economic growth and eager to maintain stability in Xinjiang.
“If you are able to see a more or less stable situation in Afghanistan, if it becomes another relatively normal Central Asian state, China will be the natural beneficiary,” says Andrew Small, a China expert at The German Marshall Fund of the United States, an American research institute. “If you look across Central Asia, that is what has already happened. … China is the only actor who can foot the level of investment needed in Afghanistan to make it succeed and stick it out.””
via China could prove ultimate winner in Afghanistan | South China Morning Post.
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