Archive for ‘GeoPolitics’

12/11/2012

* An Indian in Afghanistan

Reuters: “Racing through the deserted streets of Kabul at nighttime, you are likely to be stopped at street corners by policemen once, twice or even more. If you are a South Asian, as I am, their guard is up even more. “Pakistani or Indian?” the cop barks out as you lower your window. When I answer “Indian”, he wants me to produce a passport to prove that, and as it happens, I am not carrying one. So I am pulled out of the car in the freezing cold and given a full body search, with the policemen muttering under his breath in Dari that everyone goes around claiming to be an Indian, especially Pakistanis.

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To be an Indian in Kabul is to be greeted warmly wherever you go, whether it is negotiating a security barrier or seeking a meeting with a government official. There is an easing of tensions (in Afghanistan, the fear uppermost in the mind is that the stranger at the door could be an attacker and you don’t have too long to judge), Bollywood is almost immediately mentioned, and your hosts will go out of their way to help.

To be a Pakistani is a bit more fraught. The body search is rigorous, the questioning hostile, and, more often than not, you have to be rescued by a Western colleague especially if you are entering one of those heavily guarded, unmarked restaurants frequented by foreigners.

To the ordinary Afghan, India and Pakistan have followed two different paths in the country beginning from the ouster of the Taliban in 2001 when there was hope in the air and you could walk in the streets of Kabul (instead of trying to escape it) to the current time when the Taliban have fought back and hold the momentum as the West withdraws after a long and ultimately, unsuccessful engagement.

While the Indians have been applauded for helping build roads, getting power lines into the capital, running hospitals and arranging for hundreds of students to pursue higher education in India, the Pakistanis are accused of the violence that Afghans see all around them, from the attacks in the capital to the fighting on the border and the export of militant Islam.  It’s become  reflexive: minutes into an attack, the blame shifts to Pakistan. “They must have done it.””

via India Insight.

28/10/2012

* Australia PM Julia Gillard outlines Asia manifesto

Australia faces the reality of the 21st Century. Others are bound to follow.

BBC: “Australian PM Julia Gillard has outlined a major foreign policy plan aimed at improving Asian ties.

A government white paper sets out 25 national objectives to be met by 2025, with targets ranging from improving trade links to teaching more Mandarin.

Mrs Gillard said she wanted to refocus Australia away from Europe’s “old countries” towards its near neighbours – particularly China and India.

The plan is detailed in a 312-page paper, Australia in the Asian Century.

With Asia on track to become home to most of the world’s middle class in the next 20 years, this was a moment in history to grasp, said Mrs Gillard during the release of the white paper at Sydney’s Lowy Institute.

“The scale and pace of Asia’s rise is staggering, and there are significant opportunities and challenges for all Australians,” she said.

“It is not enough to rely on luck – our future will be determined by the choices we make and how we engage with the region we live in.””

via BBC News – Australia PM Julia Gillard outlines Asia manifesto.

21/10/2012

* Chinese/American relations: The shape of things to come

Despite all the rhetoric, the plain fact is that America and China are so intertwined economically that they may as well be Siamese twins. This unlike the relationship between America and Russia during the Cold War, where there was little mutual dependency. Our view is that soon after the US presidential elections, no matter who wins, things will settle down and stabilise as reality will come to the fore, again.

10/10/2012

* Russia further delays delivery of Admiral Gorshkov to India

It would seem a mini-arms race is on between India and China.  Although India already has two aircraft carriers, one is being retired and the other undergoing a five-month refit.  Fortunately, there is no known marine based territorial dispute between India and China, Curiously, India has been getting its carriers from Russia’s obsolete fleet and China from Ukraine’s retired fleet!

Times of India: “Russia delayed delivery of a trouble-plagued aircraft carrier for at least a year on Friday, a blow to India’s efforts to quickly build up naval strength as increasingly assertive Asian rival China expands its maritime reach.

INS Vikramaditya is anchored at Sevmash factory in northern city of Severodvinsk

Originally built as the Admiral Gorshkov in the Soviet Union, the $2.3 billion aircraft carrier is being reconditioned and was due to be ready this year, but problems with the ship’s boilers have pushed the delivery date back several times.

“We believe the handover of the ship will take place in the fourth quarter of 2013,” Russian defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov said at a joint news conference with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi.

Defence minister AK Antony said he had conveyed “serious concern” at the delays to Serdyukov.

The bilateral meeting precedes a visit by Russian President Putin to New Delhi on November 1.

The ship is to be renamed as Vikramaditya and the success of the order is seen as an important test of defence ties between Russia, the world’s second-largest arms exporter, and its biggest customer.

India, a big buyer of Soviet Union weaponry, still relies on Russia for 60 percent of its arms purchases, but has diversified its suppliers in recent years. Israel is now the No. 2 seller, and countries like the United States and France also increasing their presence.

“I myself expressed serious concern about the delay,” Antony said, adding that the issue had been raised several times. He said he was putting pressure on both sides to finish work on the biolers as soon as possible, but said he had not discussed penalising Russia so far.

India is closely watching the Chinese navy’s newly assertive stance in the South China Sea and in a dispute with Japan over contested islands that have raised tensions in East Asia this year.

India bought its first, British-built aircraft carrier in the 1960s, which was decommissioned in 1997. Another ex-British carrier, the INS Viraat, is in operation but is reaching the end of its useful service.”

via Russia further delays delivery of Admiral Gorshkov to India – The Times of India.

05/10/2012

* Diaoyu islands dispute hammers Japanese car sales in China

If the September drop in sales continues, the future for Japanese cars in China is very bleak indeed. There are lots of competitors both indigenous and foreign that can take up the slack. If Japanese car factories close as a result, the impact on Chinese employment will be non-trivial. So the anti-Japanese sentiment cuts both ways.

South China Morning Post: “Toyota’s sales in China halved last month from August levels, damaged by anti-Japanese sentiment in a row over disputed islands in the East China Sea, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Friday, citing the carmaker.

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Showroom traffic and sales have plunged at Japanese automakers since violent protests and calls for boycotts of Japanese products broke out across China in mid-September over Japan’s acquisition of a group of disputed islands.

A prolonged sales hit of this scale could threaten profit forecasts at Toyota, Nissan and others as China, the world’s biggest car market, makes up a bigger portion of their global sales. Toyota sold about 75,300 cars in China in August.

As demand evaporates, Toyota, Nissan, Honda and others have been forced to cut back production in recent weeks in a slowing, but still promising Chinese market.

A source told reporters late last month that Toyota’s production cutbacks could extend through November, a move that would almost certainly put the company’s goal of selling 1 million cars in China this year out of reach.

A Toyota spokeswoman in Tokyo declined to confirm the newspaper report, saying the company would announce its Chinese sales for September on Tuesday.

On Thursday, Mazda said its China sales tumbled by more than a third last month from a year earlier, providing the first concrete numbers to point to Japanese automakers’ troubles in China.

via Diaoyus dispute hammers Japanese car sales in China | South China Morning Post.

05/10/2012

* India successfully test-fires nuclear-capable Dhanush missile

India is continuing to increase its missile capabilities. It is not clear whether these are being developed for defensive or offensive purposes.

Times of India: “India successfully test-fired its nuclear-capable ballistic missile Dhanush on Friday from a naval ship in the Bay of Bengal off the Odisha coast, an official said.

in this file photo, Dhanush, the naval version of the Prithvi missile, is launched from a ship. Photo courtesy: DRDO

The missile was fired somewhere between Puri and Visakhapatnam as part of training exercise of the Indian Navy.

“The test was successful,” Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) spokesperson Ravi Kumar Gupta told IANS.

With a pay-load capacity of 500 kg, Dhanush is a naval version of the nuclear-capable ballistic missile Prithvi. It is capable of carrying both conventional as well as nuclear warheads and can strike targets in the range of 350 km.

With its ability to hit targets on the sea as well as on shore, the missile gives the Indian Navy the capability to strike enemy targets with great precision.

The test of Dhanush comes a day after the Indian armed forces successfully test-fired nuclear-capable ballistic missile Prithvi-II from Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur-on-sea in Balasore district, about 230 km from here.

Prithvi is India’s first indigenously built ballistic missile. It is one of the five missiles being developed under the country’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme.”

via India successfully test-fires nuclear-capable Dhanush missile – The Times of India.

29/09/2012

Suddenly, China’s aircraft carriers will increase by 100%!

21/09/2012

* China’s Xi seeks to reassure Southeast Asia on sea dispute

Reuters: “China’s leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping sought to reassure Southeast Asian leaders on Friday that his country wanted only peaceful relations with them, following months of growing tensions over the strategically located South China Sea.

China's Vice President Xi Jinping listens to U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta (not pictured) in a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, September 19, 2012. REUTERS/Larry Downing

Speaking at the opening of a trade fair in southern China for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, Vice President Xi said China’s own prosperity could only be guaranteed by having good relations with its neighbors.

“The more progress China makes in development and the closer its links with the region and the world, the more important it is for the country to have a stable regional environment and a peaceful international environment,” Xi said.

“Having gone through numerous vicissitudes in modern times, we are deeply aware of the importance of development and how valuable peace is,” he added, according to state media.

Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty over a vast stretch of the South China Sea has set it directly against Vietnam and the Philippines, while Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia also lay claim to other parts of the region, making it Asia’s biggest potential military troublespot.

At stake are potentially massive offshore oil reserves. The seas also lie on key shipping lanes.

Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is one of the ASEAN leaders attending the trade fair, held in the city of Nanning.

Xi said China – currently also involved in a dispute with Japan over a group of uninhabited islets in the East China Sea -wanted the peaceful resolution for its diplomatic arguments.”

via China’s Xi seeks to reassure Southeast Asia on sea dispute | Reuters.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/geopolitics-chinese/

20/09/2012

Another small but inexorable step towards the reduction of American dominance. We are seeing the beginning of the end of the ‘American century’.

See also:

18/09/2012

* In Africa’s warm heart, a cold welcome for Chinese

reuters: “Malawians bill their country as the “Warm Heart of Africa” and pride themselves on a reputation for friendliness. But Jaffa Shaibu, a burly 32-year-old merchant in a clothes market in Salima, a dusty town near the shores of Lake Malawi, feels less than welcoming to the Chinese traders who have moved in over the past four years.

Liberian children hold Chinese flags before the arrival of China's President Hu Jintao in Monrovia in this February 1, 2007 file photo. REUTERS-Christopher Herwig-Files

“The way it looks, one day there will be a big fight with them,” Shaibu said. “One day there will be blood.”

Echoing a grievance heard across Africa, Shaibu and his colleagues in this town of 40,000 complain of Chinese businessmen with better access to cheap imports of clothes, shoes and electronics, and deeper pockets that allow them to reduce their margins.

That sentiment is part of a grass-roots backlash against Beijing’s increasing diplomatic and commercial clout in Africa.

In many ways, the relationship between the two has never been stronger. Bilateral trade has almost doubled over the past three years, to $166 billion in 2011 from $91 billion in 2009. In July, Chinese President Hu Jintao offered Africa $20 billion in cheap loans over the next three years. China, he said, would forever be a “good friend, a good partner and a good brother” to Africa.

But a growing number of Africa’s billion people are less enthusiastic.”

via Insight: In Africa’s warm heart, a cold welcome for Chinese | Reuters.

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