Oh dear, brinkmanship often turns out to trigger real conflict. Hope this one doesn’t.
05/11/2013
China, India begin joint anti-terrorism drill | South China Morning Post
China and India began a joint anti-terrorism drill on Tuesday, the first such exercise by the Asian powers – which have a sometimes-fraught relationship – for five years.
The world’s two most populous countries each sent one company of soldiers to Chengdu, in the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan, for the “Hand-in-Hand 2013” drill, according to Chinese state media reports.
The joint training exercise comes even as the two remain embroiled in a border dispute that has been unresolved for decades and has occasionally led to military standoffs.
In April, India accused Chinese troops of intruding into Indian-held territory, a row that was only resolved three weeks later when troops from both sides eventually pulled back.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Beijing two weeks ago, signing an agreement with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to step up co-operation on border defence and counter-terrorism training.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters on Tuesday that the drill showed “enhancing political-military trust between the two countries”.
“Since the beginning of this year, China and India relations have scored new progress,” he said.
Indian officials said the country’s contingent for the 10-day-long drill was 162 strong and led by a brigadier.
“The joint training exercise is a counter-terrorist exercise with a purpose of exploring useful experience and thoughts, advance pragmatic co-operation, promote friendly environment and enhance mutual trust,” an Indian defence ministry statement said.
The first such exercise was held in China in 2007, with another in India the following year.
Beijing blames “terrorist” groups for incidents in its far western region of Xinjiang, home to Muslim Uygurs, and has in the past linked clashes to groups trained in Pakistan, which as well as being India’s great rival also shares a border with China.
via China, India begin joint anti-terrorism drill | South China Morning Post.
26/10/2013
Japan Prime Minister Abe Says Japan Ready to Counter China’s Power – WSJ.com
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he envisions a resurgent Japan taking a more assertive leadership role in Asia to counter China\’s power, seeking to place Tokyo at the helm of countries in the region nervous about Beijing\’s military buildup amid fears of an American pullback.
In an exclusive, wide-ranging interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Abe also defended his program of economic reforms against growing criticism that the package lacks substance—though he offered few details of new programs, or a timetable, that anxious foreign investors have been seeking.
\”I\’ve realized that Japan is expected to exert leadership not just on the economic front, but also in the field of security in the Asia-Pacific,\” Mr. Abe said, referring to his meetings with the region\’s leaders at a series of summits this month.
In his continuing attempt to juggle his desire to enact economic-stimulus policies with the need to pay down Japan\’s massive debt, the prime minister said he was open to reviewing the second stage of a planned increase in the sales tax in 2015 if the economy weakens after the first increase is implemented in the spring.
Less than a year after taking office, Mr. Abe has already emerged as one of Japan\’s most influential prime ministers in decades. He has shaken up the country\’s economic policy in an attempt to pull Japan out of a two-decade-long slump, and plotted a more active diplomacy for a country whose global leadership has been crimped by a rapid turnover of weak prime ministers.
In the interview, Mr. Abe made a direct link between his quest for a prosperous Japan, and a country wielding greater influence in the region and the world.
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\”Japan shrank too much in the last 15 years,\” the leader said, explaining how people have become \”inward-looking\” with students shunning opportunities to study abroad and the public increasingly becoming critical of Tokyo providing aid to other countries.
\”By regaining a strong economy, Japan will regain confidence as well, and we\’d like to contribute more to making the world a better place.\”
Mr. Abe\’s views expressed in the interview reflect his broader, long-standing nationalistic vision of a more assertive Japan, one he has argued should break free of constraints imposed on Japan\’s military by a postwar pacifist constitution written by the U.S.—and that has also been hampered by economic decline.
Mr. Abe made clear that one important way that Japan would \”contribute\” would be countering China in Asia. \”There are concerns that China is attempting to change the status quo by force, rather than by rule of law. But if China opts to take that path, then it won\’t be able to emerge peacefully,\” Mr. Abe said. \”So it shouldn\’t take that path, and many nations expect Japan to strongly express that view. And they hope that as a result, China will take responsible action in the international community.\”
via Japan Prime Minister Abe Says Japan Ready to Counter China’s Power – WSJ.com.
24/10/2013
China has technology to build VTOL J-20 stealth fighter jet
A few days ago, a dual-hull aircraft carrier, today a VTOL fighter. Are these for real or ‘western’ paranoia?
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/10/20/china-developing-180000-ton-double-hull-aircraft-carrier/
20/10/2013
India, China near pact aimed at keeping lid on border tension | Reuters
India and China are close to an agreement to stop tension on their contested border touching off confrontation while they try to figure out a way to break decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long stretches of the Himalayas.
The border defense cooperation pact that diplomats are racing to finalize ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh‘s visit to China next week is a small step forward in a complicated relationship marked by booming economic ties but also growing distrust.
In May, the two armies ended a three-week standoff in the western Himalayas after Chinese troops set up a camp at least 10 km (6 miles) inside territory claimed by India, triggering a public outcry and calls that India should stand up to its powerful neighbor.
China denied that troops had crossed into Indian territory.
Under the new agreement, the two nuclear-armed sides will give notice of patrols along the ill-defined border. They will ensure that patrols do not “tail” each other to reduce the chance of confrontation.
The two armies, strung out along the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border from the high altitude Ladakh plateau in the west to the jungles of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, have also agreed to set up a hotline between top ranking officers, in addition to existing brigade-level contacts.
“The key issue is maintaining peace and tranquility on the border,” said an Indian government official.
The border defense cooperation agreement is built on existing confidence-building measures and is designed to ensure that patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, as the unsettled border is called, does not escalate into an unintended skirmish, he said.
“Barring last minute problems, there should be an agreement. It’s a question of crossing the Ts and dotting the Is,” the officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
India and China fought a brief border war in 1962 and since then ties have been mired in distrust. China lays claims to more than 90,000 square km (35,000 sq miles) of land in the eastern sector. India disputes that and instead says China occupies 38,000 sq km (14,600 sq miles) of territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.
A Chinese airline last week blocked two Indian archers from disputed Arunachal Pradesh from travelling to China, souring the mood in India just days before Singh travels to Beijing.
“The fundamental problem they are not tackling is defining the Line of Actual Control and then a settlement of the border,” said Srikanth Kondapalli, a China expert at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
BEEFING UP DEFENCES
One reason tension has risen is that both countries are upgrading civil and military infrastructure on either side of the frontier.
China has vastly improved its roads and is building or extending airfields on its side of the border in Tibet. It has placed nuclear-capable intermediate missiles in the area and deployed about 300,000 troops across the Tibetan plateau, according to a 2010 Pentagon report.
India has also woken up and is in the midst of a 10-year plan to scale up its side of the border with a network of roads and airfields. In July, the cabinet cleared the raising of a new mountain corps comprising about 50,000 troops to be deployed on the Chinese border.
“China has developed the border infrastructure so intricately that its roads and tracks even in high mountainous regions look like fingers running down your spine,” said retired Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch who commanded the Indian army’s Special Forces wing.
Chinese nuclear and missile assistance to Pakistan as well as a widening trade deficit in China’s favor have added to Indian fear about encirclement. China, on the other hand, is concerned about Tibetan activists using India as a base to further their separatist aims.
“It strikes me that many of the usual grievances have grown in prominence over the past several months: Chinese incursions on the border, the issuance of irregular visas, continued Chinese support for Pakistan\’s nuclear program, and so on,” said Shashank Joshi, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
“It also seems that India is eager to keep these grievances in check.”
via India, China near pact aimed at keeping lid on border tension | Reuters.
20/10/2013
Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years – StratRisks
We can only hope that the article below is a worst-case scenario that will not actually happen.
From: http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/15914
On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.
The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See Maria Hsia Chang,Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.
Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)
Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:
- the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (ChinaNews.com).
- The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (必), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.
THE SIX WARS [SURE] TO BE FOUGHT BY CHINA IN THE COMING 50 YEARS
China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.
THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)
Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.
China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.
…
THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)
After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.
At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.
…
THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)
China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.
In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.
In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.
…
THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)
In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).
From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.
…
THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)
Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.
China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.
…
THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)
The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.
When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.
…
15/09/2013
Agni-V missile successfully test launched from Wheeler Island off Odisha coast
Times of India: “India on Sunday conducted a second test flight of its indigenously developed nuclear- capable ‘Agni-V‘ long-range ballistic missile, which has a strike range of more than 5000 km, from the Wheeler Island off Odisha coast.
English: Graphical drawing of Agni-V missile (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The three stage, solid propellant missile was test-fired from a mobile launcher from the launch complex-4 of the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at about 8:50am, defence sources said.
The surface-to-surface missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead of more than one tonne, witnessed an ‘auto launch’ and detail results of the trial will be known after thorough analyses of all data retrieved from different radars and network systems, they said.”
via Agni-V missile successfully test launched from Wheeler Island off Odisha coast – The Times of India.
02/09/2013
IAF inducts its biggest transport aircraft C-17 Globemaster III
Times of India: “Giving a major thrust to IAF‘s capability to swiftly move troops and tanks to battle fronts, defence minister A K Antony on Monday formally inducted its biggest 70-tonne C-17 heavy-lift transport aircraft into service at the Hindon Air Base.
Thirteen C-17 Globemaster III aircraft fly over the Blue Ridge Mountains in Virginia during low level tactical training Dec. 20, 2005. These C-17 planes are assigned to the 437th and 315th Airlift Wings at Charleston Air Force Base, S.C. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The plane’s induction is a giant stride for the force and it will perform tactical and non-traditional operations also, he said.
The C-17 Globemaster III aircraft has been procured from the US under a deal expected to be over Rs 20,000 crore. A symbolic key of the plane was presented by the Minister to the unit’s commanding officer to mark its induction.
Speaking on the occasion, IAF chief NAK Browne said the plane will be operated from the advanced landing grounds in the northeastern states as well as from high altitude bases in north and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.”
via IAF inducts its biggest transport aircraft C-17 Globemaster III – The Times of India.
27/08/2013
Is China Building an “Aircraft Carrier in Disguise?”
If true, another step towards military confrontation.
The Diplomat: “Earlier this month a series of pictures posted on Chinese military forums appeared to show that China was building its first indigenous aircraft carrier, prompting much speculation and commentary including from The Diplomat.
Now some claim that this narrative might have been mistaken.
According to Japan’s Kyodo News, Kanwa Information Center, a private Canadian think tank, has published a report that claims that the pictures do not show an aircraft carrier. Instead, the Kanwa report—which is based on Ukraine military sources— says the vessel under construction is China’s first amphibious assault ship capable of carrying hovercraft and helicopters.
In other words, if the report is accurate, China is building a Landing Helicopter Assault (LHA)-like ship not completely unlike the Izumo-class helicopter destroyer Japan launched earlier this month, which Chinese analysts referred to as an “aircraft carrier in disguise.”
Kanwa says the vessel is being built at a shipyard on Shanghai’s Changxing Island and could be commissioned as early as 2015. It will reportedly displace 35,000 tons, roughly double what China’s three existing Type 071 amphibious assault ships, which displace between 17,000-20,000 tons, according to Sino-Defense. The same source says the Type 071 ships were built by Shanghai-based Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard. The location of Changxing Island, suggests that Jiangnan Shipyard is constructing the new vessel.
Japan’s Izumo-class helicopter destroyer reportedly displaces between 20,000-25,000-tons.
China’s new LHA will carry four hovercraft and up to 20 helicopters, according to Kyodo News, which cited the Kanawa report.
There’s reason to think the Kanwa report is accurate. Indeed, last November a Chinese admiral told CCTV, China’s official broadcaster, that the PLAN was building a 40,000-ton amphibious assault ship similar to the U.S. Navy’s LHA.”
via Is China Building an “Aircraft Carrier in Disguise?” | Flashpoints | The Diplomat.
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/08/21/china-japan-and-indias-asian-arms-race/
22/08/2013
China develops revolutionary submarine with high speed of 100 knots
The arm race between China, India and Japan gathers pace. What a shame.
Related articles
- China, Japan, and India’s Asian Arms Race (chindia-alert.org)
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 