Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
China will not set an economic growth goal for this year as it deals with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
It is the first time Beijing has not had a gross domestic product (GDP) target since 1990 when records began.
The announcement was made by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of the country’s annual parliament meeting.
The world’s second largest economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter from a year ago as lockdowns paralysed businesses.
“This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment,” Premier Li said.
The country’s leadership has promised to boost economic support measures amid growing concerns that rising unemployment could threaten social stability.
The move comes as tensions between Beijing and Washington are becoming increasingly strained over the coronavirus pandemic, trade and Hong Kong.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump stepped up his attacks on China, suggesting that the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.”
It came as Mr Trump and other Republicans have escalated their criticism of Beijing’s handling of the early stages of the outbreak.
Also on Thursday, China announced plans to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong after last year’s pro-democracy protests.
The announcement was met with a warning from Mr Trump that the US would react “very strongly” against any attempt to gain more control over the former British colony.
Separately, two US senators have proposed legislation to punish Chinese entities involved in enforcing the planned new laws and penalise banks that do business with them.
Earlier this week, the US Senate unanimously passed a proposal to delist Chinese companies from American stock exchanges if they fail to comply with US financial reporting standards.
US-listed Chinese companies have come under increasing scrutiny in recent weeks after Luckin Coffee revealed that an internal investigation found hundreds of millions of dollars of its sales last year were “fabricated”.
Image copyright BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIImage caption Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks
Speculation and rumour about Kim Jong-un’s health may amount to nothing, but questions about who might succeed him in the short or long term will always be there. The BBC spoke to analysts about the contenders and whether history is on their side.
A male member of the Kim family has been in charge of North Korea ever since its founding by Kim Il-sung in 1948 – and the mythology of this family runs deep throughout society.
Propaganda about its greatness begins for citizens before they can even read: pre-schoolers sing a song called: “I want to see our leader Kim Jong-un.”
So how can you imagine a North Korea without this symbolic and political figure at the top? How would elites organise themselves, as well as society as a whole?
The easy answer is: we don’t know. More interestingly, they don’t know either. They have never had to do it.
Image copyrightXINHUAImage captionKim Il-sung is the founder of North Korea and his son Kim Jong-il took over
As Kim Jong-un was being prepared for power, they even began using the term “Paektu Bloodline” to help legitimise his rule. Paektu is the sacred and mythologised mountain where Kim Il-sung is said to have waged guerrilla war and where Kim Jong-il was reportedly born. Kim Jong-un still goes there when he wants to emphasise important policy decisions.
There has always been a Kim at the ideological heart of the country.
What would North Korea be like without such an heir? Kim Jong-un, 36, is believed to have children – but they are far too young. It is thought he has three children, the oldest being 10 and the youngest three. Kim Jong-un himself was considered young when he took power – he was 27.
It is likely that some sort of group leadership would emerge, perhaps as in Vietnam, that leans heavily on the founder’s teachings and legitimacy to boost their own standing.
Observers can track who holds certain key positions and can follow news and open-source intelligence about important institutions, but can’t really tell how factions are developing, nor who is holding power through personal rather than institutional bonds. Moreover, sometimes vice or deputy directors wield more real power than the titular heads of institutions. This makes all predictions extremely difficult.
The three remaining Kims
Image copyrightPATRICK SEMANSKY – POOL /GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yo-jong, as the only woman in the top leadership, has sparked fascination
The are three Kims who could potentially be involved in the political make-up of North Korea if Kim Jong-un were to disappear. They all face limitations in carrying on family rule.
The first is Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister. She is said to have been a favourite of her father who commented on her precocity, her interest in politics from a young age. Her manner is efficient, mild and one suspects rather observant. Much has been made of her closeness to her brother. At the Singapore Trump-Kim summit she was famously on hand to pass him a pen to sign the agreement with, and at the next summit in Hanoi, was pictured peeking out from behind corners as her brother posed for statesman-like photos.
Yet she was not above a temporary demotion after the Hanoi summit – purportedly because of its failure although this will never be confirmed. She doesn’t sit on the top policy-making body, the State Affairs Commission, but is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) of the Workers’ Party of Korea. These may seem like incomprehensible acronyms but the PAD is a powerful organisation that ensures ideological loyalty in the system.
She is a woman, however, and this makes it hard to imagine her occupying the top position in such a deeply patriarchal country. North Korea is an extremely male state, in which gender carries rigid expectations. Being supreme leader, and certainly running the military, does not fit in the range of womanly duties.
The second is Kim Jong-chul. He is Kim Jong-un’s older brother, but has never appeared interested in politics or power. (He is known to be interested in Eric Clapton.) At most, he could be a symbolic link to the Kim family: perhaps made the head of a foundation and put forward to read the odd speech.
The final one is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother. His mother – Kim Jong-il’s stepmother – was angling to have him become Kim Il-sung’s successor. She failed and was sidelined by Kim Jong-il as he rose in influence. Kim Pyong-il was sent to Europe in 1979, where he has held various ambassadorships, returning to North Korea only last year. This means it is very unlikely he has the network to be a central player in elite politics in Pyongyang.
The second-most powerful man in North Korea right now
Image copyrightALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESImage captionAs special envoy for Kim Jong-un Choe Ryong-hae (right) has met foreign dignitaries
There are other individuals who have been central in the Kim Jong-un era, but it is difficult to know who among them would form co-operative relationships and who would compete with one another.
One is Choe Ryong-hae. He has had his ups and downs under Kim Jong-un, but having weathered a few storms currently sits on the presidium of the politburo and is also first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission. Last year he became the first new president in 20 years, replacing the aging Kim Yong-nam – so he is the person who represents the North at international engagements.
Choe has also held high positions in the military and the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) of the Worker’s Party of Korea, responsible for enforcing loyalty throughout the regime. This is an extremely powerful organisation: it enforces the adherence of all citizens to North Korea’s ideology. He is probably the second most powerful man in North Korea.
The old spymasters and rising political grandees
Image copyrightOLIVIER DOULIERY-POOL/GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yong-chol travelled to Washington DC to meet Donald Trump
Another is Kim Yong-chol. This general paved the way for the Trump-Kim summits, meeting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo several times. He has been head of the United Front Department (responsible for relations with South Korea) and the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s main intelligence service. He seems to have suffered a demotion following the collapse talks with the United States, but it is unlikely this spymaster will remain obscure for long.
Yet another is Kim Jae-ryong. As well as being on the State Affairs Commission, he is Premier of the Cabinet, a moderately influential position. Relatively little is known about him, but his star has risen in the past years as others have fallen. He is known for managing industries and ran the most isolated province, home to key military-industrial sites, for several years. This may mean he has been closely involved in the nuclear program.
Jong Kyong-taek is responsible for the State Security Department, which investigates and punishes political crimes. It also helps physically protect the leadership. These are crucial responsibilities that help enforce stability in the system.
Hwang Pyong-so is another official who has held top military posts and has run the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era. Like Choe (and many others) he has been disciplined; he doesn’t seem to have been rehabilitated in the same way, however. Other 2010s foreign policy stalwarts Ri Yong-ho and Ri Su-yong have also seen roles diminish recently. They have been replaced by Ri Son-gwon and Kim Hyung-jun. The former is said to be an ally of Kim Yong-chol.
The military enforcers
A handful of top generals of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) would also certainly exert influence in any transition period. Currently, two men sit atop the General Political Bureau of the KPA, Kim Su-gil and Kim Won-hong. This bureau enforces political loyalty in the military, something that would be absolutely crucial during periods of uncertainty.
Kim Won-hong, helps illustrate how difficult it is to predict how power would be shared if Kim Jong-un were no longer there. Kim Won-hong and Hwang Pyong-so had been thought to be rivals, competing to influence Kim Jong-un at the other’s expense.
Amongst top elites, who would clash and who would ally? Would there be pro and anti-Kim Yo-jong factions? Would the fear of instability stop rivalries from getting out of hand? After all, it is in no elite politician’s interest to see the state collapse, opening the door for some kind of takeover by South Korea, or even China.
There is currently no perfect contender: his sister would have to overcome the sexism and the break from tradition of a male heir. Anybody else is not directly descended from that all-important Paektu bloodline. but in the end, they will all have to think of the unity of the state they have defied every international norm to preserve.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The Chinese city of Wuhan recently lifted its strict quarantine measures
The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.
Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.
It has been accused of downplaying the severity of its virus outbreak.
Wuhan’s 11 million residents spent months in strict lockdown conditions, which have only recently been eased.
The latest official figures bring the death toll in the city in China’s central Hubei province to 3,869, increasing the national total to more than 4,600.
China has confirmed nearly 84,000 coronavirus infections, the seventh-highest globally, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
What’s China’s explanation for the rise in deaths?
In a statement released on Friday, officials in Wuhan said the revised figures were the result of new data received from multiple sources, including records kept by funeral homes and prisons.
Deaths linked to the virus outside hospitals, such as people who died at home, had not previously been recorded.
Media caption Learn how Wuhan dealt with the lockdown
The “statistical verification” followed efforts by authorities to “ensure that information on the city’s Covid-19 epidemic is open, transparent and the data [is] accurate”, the statement said.
It added that health systems were initially overwhelmed and cases were “mistakenly reported” – in some instances counted more than once and in others missed entirely.
A shortage of testing capacity in the early stages meant that many infected patients were not accounted for, it said.
A spokesman for China’s National Health Commission, Mi Feng, said the new death count came from a “comprehensive review” of epidemic data.
In its daily news conference, the foreign ministry said accusations of a cover-up, which have been made most stridently on the world stage by US President Donald Trump, were unsubstantiated. “We’ll never allow any concealment,” a spokesman said.
Why are there concerns over China’s figures?
Friday’s revised figures come amid growing international concern that deaths in China have been under-reported. Questions have also been raised about Beijing’s handling of the epidemic, particularly in its early stages.
In December 2019, Chinese authorities launched an investigation into a mysterious viral pneumonia after cases began circulating in Wuhan.
China reported the cases to the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN’s global health agency, on 31 December.
But WHO experts were only allowed to visit China and investigate the outbreak on 10 February, by which time the country had more than 40,000 cases.
The mayor of Wuhan has previously admitted there was a lack of action between the start of January – when about 100 cases had been confirmed – and 23 January, when city-wide restrictions were enacted.
Around that time, a doctor who tried to warn his colleagues about an outbreak of a Sars-like virus was silenced by the authorities. Dr Li Wenliang later died from Covid-19.
Wuhan’s death toll increase of almost exactly 50% has left some analysts wondering if this is all a bit too neat.
For months questions have been asked about the veracity of China’s official coronavirus statistics.
The inference has been that some Chinese officials may have deliberately under-reported deaths and infections to give the impression that cities and towns were successfully managing the emergency.
If that was the case, Chinese officials were not to know just how bad this crisis would get in other countries, making its own figures now seem implausibly small.
The authorities in Wuhan, where the first cluster of this disease was reported, said there had been no deliberate misrepresentation of data, rather that a stabilisation in the emergency had allowed them time to revisit the reported cases and to add any previously missed.
That the new death toll was released at the same time as a press conference announcing a total collapse in China’s economic growth figures has led some to wonder whether this was a deliberate attempt to bury one or other of these stories.
Then again, it could also be a complete coincidence.
China has been pushing back against US suggestions that the coronavirus came from a laboratory studying infectious diseases in Wuhan, the BBC’s Barbara Plett Usher in Washington DC reports.
US President Donald Trump and some of his officials have been flirting with the outlier theory in the midst of a propaganda war with China over the origin and handling of the pandemic, our correspondent says.
Mr Trump this week halted funding for the World Health Organization (WHO), accusing it of making deadly mistakes and overly trusting China.
“Do you really believe those numbers in this vast country called China, and that they have a certain number of cases and a certain number of deaths; does anybody really believe that?” Mr Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.
On Thursday, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “We’ll have to ask the hard questions about how [coronavirus] came about and how it couldn’t have been stopped earlier.”
But China has also been praised for its handling of the crisis and the unprecedented restrictions that it instituted to slow the spread of the virus.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption North Korea says not a single person has the virus
North Korea’s claim that “not a single person” in the country has been infected with the coronavirus is facing growing scepticism.
It has credited strict containment measures and the shutting down of its borders for this success.
But the top US military commander in South Korea has said this is “untrue”, calling it an “impossible claim”.
A North Korean expert told the BBC it was likely there were cases but unlikely a mass outbreak had happened.
There are currently more than one million coronavirus cases across the world and 53,069 deaths, according to a Johns Hopkins University tally.
Pak Myong-su, a director at North Korea’s Central Emergency Anti-epidemic headquarters, told news agency AFP on Friday: “Not one single person has been infected with the novel coronavirus in our country so far.”
“We have carried out pre-emptive and scientific measures such as inspections and quarantine for all personnel entering our country and thoroughly disinfecting all goods, as well as closing borders and blocking sea and air lanes.”
Could this be true?
US General Robert Abrams, head of the US military forces in South Korea, has said it is untrue that North Korea has no virus cases.
“I can tell you that is an impossible claim based on all of the intel that we have seen,” he said in a joint interview with news sites CNN and VOA.
However, he said he could not say exactly how many cases there were, not confirm where the information came from.
Oliver Hotham, managing editor of specialist news site NK News, agreed that North Korea has probably had cases.
“It’s very unlikely that it has seen no cases because it borders China and South Korea. [Especially with China], given the amount of cross border trade and the economic relationship I really don’t see how its possible they could have prevented it,” he said.
However, he adds that it is “unlikely” there is a full scale outbreak.
“They really did take precautions early. I think it’s possible they’ve prevented a full on outbreak.”
How has North Korea reacted to the crisis?
North Korea has indeed moved much more quickly against the virus than many other countries in the region.
In late January, it sealed off its borders and later quarantined hundreds of foreigners in the capital Pyongyang. During that time, the number of cases in China were growing exponentially.
An NK News report also suggests that up to 10,000 citizens had been placed under isolation in the country – around 500 still remain in quarantine.
Are those in North Korea even aware of the virus?
Most people in North Korea are “really aware” of what’s going on, says Mr Hotham.
“There’s been so much media coverage. Almost every day you have a whole page about the efforts the country is taking domestically and also the international situation,” he told the BBC.
Fyodor Tertitskiy, a senior researcher at Kookmin University, also adds the country is currently running an “ongoing propaganda campaign teaching people how to prevent the spread of the virus”.
The answer is, according to experts – better than you would think – depending on where in North Korea you are.
Mr Tertitsky says the North’s healthcare system is “much, much better than other countries with a similar GDP per capita”.
“What they did was to train a large number of doctors who, although less qualified and infinitely paid less than their colleagues in the West, can still provide basic healthcare to the population,” he told the BBC.
Mr Hotham agrees, but says that the number of doctors in North Korea enables the country to deal with basic illnesses, but perhaps not so much more serious illnesses which also need more healthcare equipment.
Sanctions have also restricted North Korea’s ability to obtain advanced medical equipment.
Mr Hotham adds that the care you receive largely depends on where you are. The capital, Pyongyang, for example, has various medical facilities, but those in rural areas might not be so lucky.
“Some provinces are desperately underfunded, where you’ll have hospitals with no running water or stable power.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Some international experts say North Korea’s health system is appalling
Why might North Korea be trying to cover up cases?
For North Korea to admit they have cases now could be a sign of “defeat”.
“The state has put a lot of stock into its response and there has been so much propaganda about how well they’re doing,” said Mr Hotham.
“I think for them to admit now that there were cases is essentially to admit defeat. I think it would also cause panic and people would freak out. If you have large movements of people trying to get away, that could create instability and even more infections.”
Mr Tertitskiy also puts this down to North Korea trying to preserve its self-image.
“The country is very paranoid about giving away any information that may make it look bad. Their basic rule is to say nothing unless there is a good reason to do otherwise.”
‘What we are seeing here is reciprocity,’ the German leader says, referencing the EU’s aiding stricken China earlier this year
But critics dismissed China’s show of largesse as propaganda designed to deflect US claims that the contagion originated in China
The colours of the Italian flag are projected onto the Palazzo Senatorio building on Capitoline Hill in Rome on Tuesday as a “sign of hope in this difficult and delicate moment”, Rome’s mayor stated. Photo: AFP
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has downplayed concerns over China’s provision of medical supplies to European countries hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic, calling the move a gesture of reciprocity.
The European Union continued to face criticism over its slow reaction to calls for medical supplies from Italy and Spain, amid the encouraging news that new cases in Italy were seeing their slowest rate of increase since the contagion came to light in late February.
“The European Union sent medical equipment to China [when] China asked for help at that time,” Merkel said at a Tuesday press conference, referring to the outbreak’s start earlier this year. “What we are seeing here is reciprocity.”
“As we are having a crisis at this time, we cannot expect everything to be provided in the framework of the EU. We are very pleased about [China’s provision],” Merkel said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has guaranteed that China will provide Italy and Spain – the two most severely hit European countries – with medical equipment such as face masks, ventilators and protective equipment for medical professionals.
Critics, however, called China’s action part of a propaganda campaign designed to deflect US claims that the coronavirus originated in China.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez reached out to Xi for help obtaining medical supplies in a phone call on Tuesday.
Speaking to reporters, Sanchez confirmed that the matter had come up during the call, just days after the Spanish government had ordered an unprecedented national lockdown to halt the virus’ spread.
Chinese state media reported that Xi had told Sanchez that “China is willing to respond to the urgent needs of Spain and spare no effort to provide support and assistance, and share experience in prevention, control and treatment.”
Workers loading boxes of surgical masks donated by China’s BYD, bound for the United States. Photo: Jack Ma Foundation
On Tuesday, a plane from Shanghai landed in the northern Spanish city of Zaragoza, carrying 500,000 masks donated by e-commerce giant Alibaba, AFP reported. (Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.)
According to a statement, the delivery was part of a donation of 2 million masks and coronavirus test kits to certain countries from Alibaba’s Chinese billionaire founder Jack Ma.
Europe to shut border for month as France braces for 15-day coronavirus lockdown
17 Mar 2020
Xi’s call with Sanchez came a day after one with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, in which the Chinese leader similarly pledged to provide Italy with medical support, including teams with expertise in treating Covid-19.
On Tuesday, Italy reported 345 new coronavirus deaths in 24 hours, taking its overall death toll to 2,503.
Spain registered 183 deaths, 53 per cent more than in the previous 24 hours, driving the total number of deaths to 524. More than 2,000 newly infected cases were reported, pushing the total to 11,681.
Elsewhere on Tuesday, France entered a national shutdown, while Belgium, where the EU is headquartered, announced a similar halt to public activities starting on Wednesday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said all 27 member states have agreed to ban non-EU citizens from visiting the region for the next 30 days. The method of enforcement will be determined by the individual countries, she said.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 