Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) discounts on the iPhone 11 in China and the release of a new low-price SE model have put the company in a better position than rivals to weather a coronavirus-related plunge in global smartphone demand.
While China, which accounts for roughly 15% of Apple’s revenue, appears to be a rare bright spot, investors will be keen to get a picture of global demand when the Cupertino, California-headquartered company reports second-quarter results on Thursday.
The iPhone maker has shut retail stores in the United States and Europe following the COVID-19 outbreak, and China is the only major market where it has been able to reopen all shops.
Consumer spending is expected to be muted as the pandemic has crippled economies and Apple, the world’s second-most valuable tech company, is better armed with the launch of its new price-conscious iPhone model, analysts said.
“Apple is better positioned than most to experience a rapid recovery in a post COVID world,” Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note. “We see demand as pushed out, not canceled.”
He added that the launch of the $399 iPhone SE suggested that Apple’s supply chain was getting back on its feet after weeks of shutdown earlier this year.
Analysts expect Apple to report a 6% drop in revenue and an 11% fall in net income in its fiscal second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.
On the other hand, Chinese brands such as Oppo and Vivo who have steadily moved to offer high-end models to challenge iPhones, stand to lose marketshare as bargain hunters choose Apple.
Earlier this month, several online retailers in China slashed prices of the iPhone 11 by as much as 18% – a tactic Apple has used in the past to boost demand. And while initial social media reaction to the new iPhone SE was muted, analysts said they were seeing a pick up in demand.
The cheaper iPhone SE could tempt iPhone owners to opt for a newer device, something they might have otherwise delayed in a weak economy, said Nicole Peng, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Canalys.
“People want to avoid uncertainty in a downturn,” she said. “Having a brand like Apple that can showcase quality and make people less worried about breakdowns or after-sales service can bring in buyers.”
CHEAP IS GOOD
Early data suggests that the Chinese smartphone market is recovering rapidly in the aftermath of the virus, and Apple has emerged relatively unscathed.
Sales of iPhones in China jumped 21% last month from a year earlier and more than three fold from February, government data showed, meaning March-quarter sales in the country were likely to have slipped just 1%.
To be sure, a recovery in Chinese demand won’t offset sales lost in the United States and Europe. And the company is yet to launch a smartphone enabled with 5G wireless technology like those offered by Asian rivals, a disadvantage for Apple so far.
But those same expensive 5G models may not sell well in the current climate of frugality, analysts said.
“If there are no massive subsidies (in China), I doubt there will be many smartphone users who will be eager to upgrade to 5G,” said Linda Sui, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Strategy Analytics.
Sui expects iPhone shipments in 2020 to be down 2 percentage points at the most, versus double digit declines at Chinese firms.
Apple also has revenue from its services business to fall back on. It has leveraged its large iPhone customer base to boost services revenue from music, apps, gaming and video.
“Apple’s Services segment should remain resilient in today’s work-from-home environment, thereby demonstrating the durability of Apple’s model,” Cowen analyst Krish Sankar said.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.
While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.
That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.
“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”
The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.
Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.
That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.
A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.
Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.
City at centre of outbreak finally able to declare itself clear of disease after months in lockdown and thousands of deaths
Risk of infection remains, however, with some patients testing positive for coronavirus that causes disease without showing symptoms
Ferries and other public transport services resumed in Wuhan last week. Photo: Xinhua
The city of Wuhan, the initial epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, no longer has any Covid-19 patients in hospital after the last 12 were discharged on Sunday.
Their release ended a four-month nightmare for the city, where the disease was first detected in December. The number of patients being treated for Covid-19, the disease caused by a new coronavirus, peaked on February 18 at 38,020 – nearly 10,000 of whom were in severe or critical condition.
“With the joint efforts of Wuhan and the national medical aid given to Hubei province, all cases of Covid-19 in Wuhan were cleared as of April 26,” Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission said on Sunday afternoon.
The announcement came only one day after the city discharged the last patient who had been in a severe condition. That patient also was the last severe case in Hubei province.
The last patient discharged from Wuhan Chest Hospital, a 77-year-old man surnamed Ding, twice tested negative for Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, and was released at noon on Sunday.
“I missed my family so much!” Ding told Changjing Daily.
Another unidentified patient exclaimed as he left the hospital: “The air outside is so fresh! The weather is so good today!”
Wuhan faced a long journey to bring its patient count down to zero.
The city of 11 million, the capital of Hubei province and a transport hub for central China, was put under a strict lockdown on January 23 that barred anyone from entering or exiting the city without official approval for 76 days until it was officially lifted on April 8.
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Residents were ordered to stay in their apartments as the city stopped public transport and banned private cars from city streets. As the epidemic worsened, more than 42,000 medical staff from across the country were sent to the city and to Hubei province to help ease the burden on the local health care system.
Wuhan was the hardest hit city in China, accounting for 50,333 of the 82,827 locally transmitted Covid-19 cases recorded in China. More than 4,600 died in the country from the disease.
On March 13, the city reported for the first time that there were no new suspected cases of the infection, and five days later there were no confirmed cases.
The number of discharged patients bottomed out at 39.1 per cent at the end of February, gradually climbing to 92.2 per cent by last Thursday.
“Having the patients in the hospital cleared on April 26 marks a major achievement for the city’s Covid-19 treatment,” the Wuhan Health Commission said in a statement.
However, having no severe cases in hospital does not mean all the discharged patients will require no further treatment as they may still need further care.
“Clearing all the severe cases marks a decisive victory for the battle to safeguard Wuhan,” health minister Ma Xiaowei told state broadcaster China Central Television on Saturday.
“Some patients who have other conditions are being treated in specialised hospitals. It has been properly arranged.”
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Ten patients aged between 42 and 85 who have been declared coronavirus-free are still in intensive care at the city’s Tongji Hospital where they are being treated for kidney problems and other complications arising from Covid-19. Some still need ventilators to help them breathe.
These 10 patients are under 24-hour care, with 190 nurses on four-hour rotations. There are other patients in a similar condition in two other hospitals in Wuhan, according to the Hubei Broadcasting and Television Network.
However, the discharge of the last batch of Covid-19 patients does not mean that the risk of infection is gone.
The city reported 20 new cases of people testing positive for Sars-CoV-2, the official name for the coronavirus that causes the disease, but who do not yet show symptoms.
There are 535 such carriers under medical observation. Past data shows some of these asymptomatic carriers will develop symptoms, and so will be counted as Covid-19 patients under China’s diagnosis and treatment plan.
China’s coronavirus infection curve has flattened out with about 694 imported cases of Covid-19 on top of about 800 locally transmitted ones now under treatment.
The national health commission spokesman warned that people still need to be on high alert as the virus is continuing to spread around the globe, with no sign yet of a slowdown.
“[We] must not drop our guard and loosen up. [We] must discover cases in time and deal with them quickly,” Mi said, citing the continued pressure from cases imported by people returning from overseas.
“The next step will be to implement the requirements of the central government and continue to guard against imported cases and a rebound of domestic transmitted cases.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Mir Osman Ali Khan was once the world’s richest man
A London court has ruled that £35m ($42m) held in a UK bank account must go to the descendants of an Indian royal, and not to Pakistan.
The dispute began in 1948 when the last Nizam (king) of Hyderabad deposited £1m in the UK account, held by the then Pakistan high commissioner. With interest, the sum has grown to £35m.
The judge ruled there was no evidence to back Pakistan’s claims to the money.
The origins of the dispute go back to the 1947 partitioning of British India.
Hyderabad, which was a princely state, was annexed by India in 1948 in a military operation – the cash transfer had been made shortly before that.
The Nizam, Mir Osman Ali Khan, had not been able to decide whether his state should be in Pakistan or India.
His descendants alleged that he had asked for the money to be returned weeks after the annexation by India took place, but then Pakistan refused to give it back.
The court case had been fought by his family together with the Indian state.
National Westminster Bank, in which the money had been deposited, refused to release the funds to either party until the case was resolved by the courts.
The interest on the original deposit saw the money grow to £35m by 2019.
Pakistan argued it had been given the money in order to procure arms but the court determined it had the right to rule in the case, given that the money had been deposited in a British bank account.
“The court today made it clear that it did not think the money was handed to Pakistan outright. There is overwhelming evidence that Pakistan only held the money as a trustee and it actually belonged to the Nizam,” Paul Hewitt, the lawyer for one of the grandsons, told the BBC’s Gaggan Sabherwal.
Mr Hewitt said the case, which had begun when his client was a child, was finally being resolved when he was in his 80s.
“We welcome the judgment of Justice Marcus Smith,” Najaf Ali Khan, one of the Nizam’s grandsons, told BBC Telugu.
“The High Court has rightly rejected Pakistan’s claim. The family has long awaited this judgement.”
India’s foreign ministry also welcomed the verdict in a press statement.
Pakistan could seek to appeal, but otherwise the money will be given to the Nizam’s grandsons and the state of India.
China is set to release pork supplies from its central reserves as it moves to tackle soaring prices and shortages caused by an outbreak of swine fever.
A state-backed body will auction 10,000 tonnes of frozen pork from its strategic reserves on Thursday.
China, the world’s biggest producer and consumer of pork, has struggled to control the spread of the disease.
In a bid to stabilise prices, a state-backed group that manages the pork reserves will auction imported frozen pork from countries including Denmark, France, the US and UK.
Only 300 tonnes will be sold to each bidder at the auction.
Pork is used widely in Chinese festivals, and the auction comes as the country prepares to celebrate a week-long national holiday for the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said the auction would provide slight relief to the industry but would not do much to contain prices.
“In itself, I don’t think it will be able to prevent pork prices from rising further unless they manage to get the disease under control,” he said.
Beijing created its strategic pork reserve in 2007 but the size of the stockpile is not known.
Capital Economics estimates that at most, the stockpile would hold four days’ worth of pork supplies to feed China.
About 1.2 million pigs have been culled in China in an effort to halt the spread of swine fever since August 2018, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, a UN agency.
In April, Rabobank estimated Chinese pork production would fall by up to 35% this year due to swine fever.
The supply shortage has sent pork prices soaring and has eaten into household incomes.
That poses a fresh challenge for the Chinese economy, which is already facing a slowdown and a trade war between Beijing and Washington.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s Guangdong province said it will release 3,150 tonnes of frozen pork from reserves during the upcoming holidays, part of a campaign to secure supplies of the country’s favorite meat, local media reported on Monday, after a devastating disease ravaged the hog herd.
The pig herd in the major pork consuming region has fallen 34% from the previous year in the first half of 2019, while the sow herd dropped 43%, the Nanfang Daily reported, citing government statistics.
“Hog supplies will face an unprecedented, grave test,” the newspaper said, quoting an unnamed official with the provincial agriculture bureau, as it will be increasingly difficult to transport pigs into Guangdong from outside provinces due to falling production nationwide.
Various factors, including the environmental crackdown on illegal pig farming and outbreaks of African swine fever, are behind the fall, the official said.
Guangdong relies on supplies from other provinces. Authorities in Guangzhou, the capital city of the province, have said they will release 1,600 tonnes of frozen pork from reserves in September.
Major pig producers in the region including the Guangdong branch of agribusiness giant New Hope Liuhe, said they will further expand hog production in the area to help with supplies.
Liuhe, which currently supplies about 300,000 hogs a year in Guangdong, will add another 50,000 pigs to the market in the second half of the year, and expand pig production by 700,000 heads next year, according to Li Weifeng, general manager in charge of the Guangdong new district at the firm, the newspaper reported.
Local authorities are also promoting modern and large scale pig farms, to secure pork supplies in the region in the long run, the paper said.
China’s state planner said on Monday it will issue subsidies of up to 5 million yuan ($700,000) to support the construction of large-scale pig farms.
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – India asked the World Court on Monday to order the release of an Indian national sentenced to death by Pakistan, saying Islamabad had failed to allow him diplomatic assistance before his conviction, as required by an international treaty.
The hearings at the U.N. court, formally known as the International Court of Justice (ICJ), revolve around the case of Kulbhushan Sudhir Jadhav, a former Indian navy commander who was arrested in Pakistan in March 2016 and convicted of spying.
Hearings in the case, which will run for four days, come at a time of intense tension between the nuclear-armed neighbours, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of a “strong response” to a suicide attack on a convoy in Kashmir last week that killed 44 Indians.
“It would be in the interest of justice, of making human rights a reality, to direct his (Jadhav’s) release,” said Harish Salve, India’s senior counsel.
Pakistan is due to respond at the ICJ on Tuesday. Officials in Islamabad said ahead of the hearing that India was trying to use the court intended to resolve international disputes as a criminal appeals court. They also said the relief sought by India is disproportionate even if the treaty were violated, and at most Jadhav’s case could be reviewed.
India filed a claim against Pakistan before the ICJ in May 2017 arguing Islamabad had breached the 1963 Vienna Convention by not allowing diplomatic assistance to Jadhav during his secretive trial. India won an injunction that ordered Jadhav’s execution stayed while the court looked into the case.
No date has been set for a ruling, which will likely come months after the close of the hearings.
The ICJ is the U.N.’s highest court, and its decisions are binding — though it has no power to enforce them and they have been ignored in rare instances.
The 1963 treaty has been a frequent source of cases before the ICJ. A 2004 ruling led the United States to review the cases of dozens of Mexican citizens on U.S. death row after they were found not to have been granted consular access.
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Sweden said on Thursday it had replaced its ambassador to China after her “incorrect” handling of unauthorized meetings intended to help free dissident bookseller Gui Minhai.
The Hong Kong-based, Swedish publisher of books critical of China’s communist leaders was abducted in Thailand in 2015 and later appeared in custody in mainland China.
His daughter Angela Gui said this week she had met ambassador Anna Lindstedt and two businessmen in Stockholm in January, where she was advised to keep quiet about her father’s case while negotiations were proceeding.
Sweden’s Foreign Ministry said that was not an official meeting, and Lindstedt had now returned to Sweden with an interim envoy sent to Beijing during an inquiry.
“Neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Foreign Minister were informed until after the event,” ministry spokesman Rasmus Eljanskog said in an emailed statement.
“As a consequence of the incorrect manner in which the said meetings were handled, we are now conducting an internal investigation.”
Gui, 54, became a Swedish citizen after studying there in the 1980s. After the abduction, he was released in October 2017, but his whereabouts were unclear until January last year when his daughter said he was seized by Chinese agents on a Beijing-bound train in the presence of Swedish diplomats.
China later confirmed it had detained him again.
In her blog, Angela Gui said Lindstedt invited her to Stockholm to meet two businessmen who could help secure her father’s release.
“OUTRAGEOUS SCANDAL”
“The businessman said, ‘you care about Anna (Lindstedt), right? If you keep talking to the media it’ll damage her career. You don’t want her to come to any harm, do you?’”, she said in the post on blog portal Medium.
“In order for this to happen (negotiations), I was told I needed to be quiet. I wasn’t to tell anyone about this, or say anything publicly about the case,” she added.
“I’m not going to be quiet in exchange for … an arbitrary promise that my father ‘might’ be released. Threats, verbal abuse, bribes, or flattery won’t change that.”
China’s Foreign Ministry declined comment, with spokeswoman Hua Chunying saying she knew nothing about Gui’s latest situation. On its website, China’s embassy in Stockholm said it had not authorized anyone to “engage” with Gui’s daughter.
“The Chinese side handles the Gui Minhai case in accordance with law and legal procedure,” it said.
Gui’s original abduction – along with four others in the Hong Kong book trade – fed worries about interference from Beijing despite guarantees of wide-ranging freedoms for the former British colony which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
The four others have since returned to Hong Kong. The United States and European Union have urged Gui’s release.
Sweden said it was continuing to seek Gui’s freedom, as Lindstedt faced scathing criticism for what the leader of Sweden’s Left Party called an “outrageous scandal”.
“A Swedish ambassador has done the bidding of a dictatorship and tried to silence the daughter of a Swedish political prisoner in China,” Jonas Sjostedt told local TV.
“I don’t think we have seen a worse scandal in Swedish foreign administration for decades.”
Lindstedt could not immediately be reached for comment.
BEIJING, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) — China has lodged solemn representations with Canada and the United States and demanded the immediate release of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Thursday.
Meng was provisionally detained by the Canadian Authorities on behalf of the United States of America, when she was transferring flights in Canada, Huawei said in a statement Thursday.
Spokesperson Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing that China has lodged solemn representations with the Canadian and U.S. sides, urging the two countries to clarify the reason they detained Meng, immediately release her and effectively protect her legitimate rights and interests.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 