Apologies to my regular followers for inundating you with so many posts on my blog today. I’ve been away in Cyprus for a fortnight ….
20/10/2013
Is There Life After Facebook: Geopolitics of Technology and other Foreign Policy Essays – book review
Although not directly related to Chindia, there are relevant aspects of Prof Anis Bajrektarevic’s recent book.
Below are reviews:
Insightful, compelling and original, this book is an exciting journey through the rocky field of geopolitics. It is also a big-thinking exploration of the least researched aspects of the discipline, which will leave no one indifferent. As the world changes, societies face new challenges they might not be aware of. This book, written by an experienced lawyer and a former career diplomat, cleverly questions how we see the world, and acts as an eye opener.
Dr. Peter Jankowitsch,
former Austrian Foreign Minister,
Secretary General of the Austro-French Centre
“The presence and future of our globalised, interwoven world has become so difficult to comprehend that many people refrain from even trying to understand it. Most media only scratch the surface of relevant topics. Specialists concentrate on a single issue – be it climate change or energy security – disregarding the interrelations and linkages. There is a huge gap between the daily information avalanche – in a kind of infotainment – and the presentation of the tight web which affiliates, ties and bonds all relevant factors around the globe. It is the merit of Professor Anis Bajrektarevic to fill this gap with excellent analyses brought together in his brilliant book. It is a must read for those who want to get a better understanding of the complex world and who want to contribute to a better and safer world.”
Dieter Farwick, Rt. Brig. General of the German Army, Senior Vice President of WSN, author of 5 books on defense studies, close aid to the former German Defense Minister Manfred Woerner, and late NATO Secretary General
Prof. Bajrektarevic in this work has skilfully blended history, evolutionary-biology, geopolitics, international law and foreign policies, technology, philosophy, quantum mechanics, informatics, astrophysics and cognitive science, and analysis all together with a complex uptake and digestion of the contemporary issues within the world today. He is one of the few that can undertake this complex analysis successfully and this is the hallmark of his fabulously novel perspectives that he is able to put into any subject. If the ‘world is flat’ today, it is mostly in the field of ideas, with the single (over-) dominant narrative. However, Anis’ writings are more than just a counter-narrative. This monograph is a tribute to transdisciplinary thinking the future of intellectual thought in geopolitical discipline of which Bajrektarevic is in the vanguard.
Prof. Anis conveniently uses the metaphor of language to view the world by being reflective, instructive and predictive. Firm and forthcoming in his sharp analysis of international affairs and diplomacy, or of technology in relation to geo-economic, energy security or to liberties and freedoms, he easily walks the edge into the first class political philosophy. In this way, he is able to explain deep socio-political interlinkages (ranging from en mass wonders like Lady Gaga and Paris Hilton to ancient times of Plato, or from the ‘Matrix’ and ‘Truman Show’ movies to a subtle analysis of security structures in the world politics) at a level of skill, unmatched in the field, and for this reason I consider him one of today’s great thinkers.
To me the very title of his book “Is there life after Facebook” is a provocative challenge to the reader to think about what is happening. He questions our accepted norms before the cover is opened. Finally, I welcome you to a journey into unexplored and under-elaborated, to the author’s own ‘quantum filed’ of numerous possibilities, and dense web of meanings.
Prof. Murray Hunter, (from the book’s foreword)
http://www.amazon.com/Facebook-Geopolitics-Technology-Foreign-History-ebook/dp/B00EV46GF4
30/09/2013
India and Pakistan Agree to Take Steps to Ease Tension – WSJ.com
India and Pakistan have agreed to take steps to reduce tension on the disputed part of their border, in a much-anticipated meeting that senior officials said made advances in the tense relations between these nuclear-armed neighbors.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif met in New York on Sunday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The talks went better than expected, officials from both sides said.
A series of deadly events in the weeks leading to the discussions had heightened tensions in the countries’ already-fraught relationship.
Washington believes normalizing relations between India and Pakistan would help stabilize the region, as the hostility between the two countries feeds a detrimental competition for influence in Afghanistan. And Islamabad‘s concern over its eastern border with India prevents it from dealing with the al Qaeda-influenced militant groups that menace its northwest.
“There is clearly a desire from both sides to have a much better relationship,” said India’s national security adviser, Shivshankar Menon, briefing reporters after the meeting. “We have actually achieved a new stage; we do have some understanding on how to move forward.”
Earlier Pakistan Extends Olive Branch to India. Mr. Sharif, who came to power in June and has a history of pursuing peace with India, had asked for the meeting.
For his part, Mr. Singh has a record of defying hawks at home to reach out to Pakistan. But how far he can go is limited by elections his party faces in India next year. Any supposed softness on Pakistan will be exploited by his conservative opponents.
via India and Pakistan Agree to Take Steps to Ease Tension – WSJ.com.
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/political-factors/indian-tensions/
19/08/2013
* To my regular followers: an apology
Dear followers: I’ve been on a fortnight’s holiday in the English Lake District, Windermere to be precise. We visited all the popular spots: Wordsworth‘s cottage, Beatrice Potter’s house, John Ruskin’s house; as well as Wray Castle, Siezergh Castle, Furness Abbey; and rode a miniature steam train as well as a restored steam ‘gondola’.
English: Lake Windermere,Lake District (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
If you haven’t been, I would recommend it, But perhaps not in August when everyone and his uncle seem to be there!
Anyway, sorry I haven’t posted anything for two weeks and so you will now be inundated with a lot of catch-up posts.
Regards
Zhang Chiahou
BTW – I have now published a second book: China Alert – Beware the Waking Dragon – http://www.amazon.com/China-Alert-Beware-Waking-Dragon/dp/1491227613/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top This is an abbreviated version opf my earlier book Chindia Alert – you’ll be living in their world very soon – http://www.amazon.com/Chindia-Alert-Youll-living-their/dp/1482063921/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1376905156&sr=1-1&keywords=chindia+alert
23/07/2013
First U.S. citizen detained as China pharma probe spreads
First crackdown on party members and officials, now on commercial organisations. China‘s anti-corruption campaign gathers pace.
Reuters: “The first U.S. citizen has been detained in China in connection with probes sparked by an unfolding corruption scandal in the drugs industry, as China widens the range of international firms and staff under the spotlight.
Police have also questioned two further Chinese employees from drug maker AstraZeneca in Shanghai, after a local sales representative was taken away for questioning earlier.
And China’s health ministry said 39 hospital staff would be punished for taking bribes from drug companies.
The unnamed American is the first U.S. citizen to be detained in connection with the investigations, and the second foreign national, after a British risk consultant linked with GlaxoSmithKline was held last week.
GSK has been accused by China of funneling up to 3 billion yuan ($489 million) to travel agencies to facilitate bribes to doctors and officials.
“We are aware that a U.S. citizen has been detained in Shanghai. We are in contact with the individual and are providing all appropriate consular assistance,” U.S. embassy spokesman Nolan Barkhouse said on Tuesday, when asked about the involvement of U.S. citizens in the widening probe.
He declined to say which company the individual was associated with.
The latest moves by Chinese officials underline the country’s tough stance on corruption and high prices in the pharmaceutical industry, as it unrolls wider healthcare access and faces an estimated $1 trillion healthcare bill by 2020.
“Momentum is gathering and if you are a big international firm, then you’re a good example to be held up. This is a wake-up call for the rest of the industry,” said Jeremy Gordon, director of China Business Services, a risk management company focusing on China.
AstraZeneca said that the Shanghai Public Security Bureau had asked on Tuesday to speak with two line managers linked to the sales representative questioned earlier.
“The Public Security Bureau is describing this as an individual case. We have no reason to believe it is related to other investigations,” the company said in the statement.
via First U.S. citizen detained as China pharma probe spreads | Reuters.
26/05/2013
* Could We Have an Indian Dream?
WSJ: “Everyone has heard of the American Dream. It promises equal opportunities and the chance for everyone to prosper through hard work. It is meant to be inclusive, and Indians are certainly among various groups to have shared in it.
It now seems there is a Chinese Dream, too. Xi Jinping has already mentioned the term several times in speeches since he became president in March. Smaller nations like Qatar and New Zealand have also recently stated their national dreams, and now even Vanuatu is striving for one.
Surely India – a vast, populous country and possible powerhouse of the 21st Century – needs its own dream. It’s not just a matter of being left out. Collective dreams are necessary to hold a people together, to inspire, to get everyone pushing in the same direction.
India had a national dream before 1947. That dream was to become an independent country, and it came true. But things have become a bit fuzzy since then. Today, if you asked someone on the street what India’s national dream is, they wouldn’t know. If you asked a politician, he may talk about it for an hour, but in the end neither he nor you would know.
The word “dream” captures the imagination, but frankly what we’re talking about is a vision that is grounded in reality, something actionable.”
via Could We Have an Indian Dream? – India Real Time – WSJ.
See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/05/03/xi-jinpings-vision-chasing-the-chinese-dream/
03/05/2013
* Stressed Chinese Leave Cities, Head for the Countryside
BusinessWeek: “Six years ago, Bei Yi did something many people considered crazy. He quit a high-paying job in Shanghai as a manager at an industrial glass company, sold his car and apartment, and left one of China’s most desirable cities. His destination: the town of Lijiang, deep in China’s poor southwest province of Yunnan, once a place of banishment for those who ran afoul of the emperor.
Friends and family were perplexed. “‘How can you come from such a lively, important city and move to a far-off mountain area to live?’ they all asked me. They didn’t understand at all,” recalls Bei, now 34 and proprietor of a guesthouse in Lijiang’s old city, which features rushing streams and ancient alleys. “In some ways, my life in Shanghai would have been considered quite good,” he says, sipping Pu’er tea in the bright sunshine on a recent Friday, with his Old English sheepdog lying nearby. “But I was not happy at all.”
Bei, in Lijiang’s old town, where 95 percent of residents are urban refugees
Bei’s decision to abandon city life has made him something of a pioneer. Fed up with choking smog, traffic jams, unsafe food, stress, and the general toxicity of life in urban China, a growing number of affluent Chinese are deserting big cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen and settling in remote regions, says Gary Sigley, professor of Asian Studies at the University of Western Australia, who is studying the migration. Bei cites work stress as the No. 1 motivation for his move. (His once-doubting parents have joined him and his wife in Lijiang.)
Although no statistics are available on how many people have moved, Yunnan is a very popular destination. An account of a husband and wife’s decision to leave Beijing and move there was one of the top posts on Sina Weibo (SINA), China’s microblogging site, in late February. Yunnan’s attractions include its tolerance—it’s home to 25 minority groups—and pristine environment. Other than tourism, tea, and tobacco, there is little industry.”
via Stressed Chinese Leave Cities, Head for the Countryside – Businessweek.
Related articles
- Lijiang the most laidback of 6 Chinese cities (wantchinatimes.com)
- Top 10 Must See – Lijiang Yunnan (jiangxiandchinesecuisine.wordpress.com)
27/04/2013
* China Haidian may buy more watchmakers after Corum
Corum (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Reuters: “China Haidian Holdings (0256.HK) may not stop at this week’s acquisition of Swiss watchmaker Corum as it seeks a foothold in high-end timepieces popular with Chinese consumers.
Chinese appetite for Swiss luxury watches has exploded in recent years, boosting sales at industry leaders Swatch Group (UHR.VX) and Richemont (CFR.VX).
But growth, particularly in top-end watches, has ground to a halt as the Chinese economy loses steam and a crackdown on giving expensive gifts as favours hurts demand.
China Haidian, which bought Swiss watch brand Eterna in 2011, said on Wednesday it was acquiring Corum Watches for 86 million Swiss francs ($90.8 million) to develop its Swiss brand portfolio and attract more Chinese customers.
“We may consider additional acquisitions in the future to grow our business if an opportunity arises,” Hon Kwok Lung, chairman of China Haidian, said on Friday in written answers to questions from Reuters.
He said no purchases were planned for now.
Hon said China Haidian wanted to use its retail network in China to help distribute and market Corum watches in China, as it did with Eterna.
Eterna has said its revenue grew in 2012, but product and market development costs brought it a net loss of HK$69.28 million. It expects Eterna to break even in a couple of years.”
via China Haidian may buy more watchmakers after Corum | Reuters.
09/03/2013
* Where Have China’s Workers Gone?
Bloomberg: “Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are taking over China’s leadership at a time when growth has slackened and labor issues have become more complex.
Reports that businesses such as Foxconn Technology Group are raising wages and struggling to recruit workers in China have intensified debate over just how many surplus workers the country still has. Meanwhile, a boom in college-educated Chinese has raised concerns of an impending threat to U.S. competitiveness. These seemingly disparate concerns about China’s labor force are actually linked by common underlying factors, with critical implications for China’s ability to remain the growth engine of the world.
China’s large pool of surplus labor has fueled its rapid industrial growth. Now this “demographic dividend” may be almost exhausted, and its economy reaching a Lewis turning point: a shift named after the Nobel prize-winning Arthur Lewis, who was the first to describe how poor economies can develop by transferring surplus labor from agriculture to the more productive industrial sector until the point when surplus labor disappears, wages begin to rise and growth slows.
Citing periodic labor shortages and unskilled wages that have risen since 2003, prominent Chinese economists suggest that time has come. The International Monetary Fund disagrees and puts the turning point much later — between 2020 and 2025, based on a model analyzing labor productivity. A third view is that China’s surplus labor is still plentiful, given that about 40 percent of the labor force is still underutilized in the rural sector, mostly in agriculture, which accounts for only 10 percent of gross domestic product.
Mobility Restrictions
In China, many market imperfections impede the mobility and use of labor. Thus, actual availability may fall far short of what is potentially available. The hukou residency system that restricts migrant workers from accessing services where they are employed is the most glaring example of this kind of imperfection. Less obvious is the extent to which China’s rural- support policies, including subsidy programs, may be encouraging workers to stay in agriculture longer than they should.
Surplus workers may not be in agriculture as in the original Lewis model but in smaller towns, underemployed at depressed wages. The result is that China has the highest rural- urban income disparity in the world.
Why don’t these workers move to more productive jobs in more dynamic settings? In formal terms, it is because their “reservation wage” has increased — that is, the minimum wage they demand to move is much greater than their current wage, because for a generation that didn’t experience the hardships of the Mao Zedong era, the monetary and emotional costs of relocation have risen. Many workers won’t move to major cities that lack affordable housing. They may also have rights to land that can’t be sold for full market value — thus, staying in familiar surroundings is now a more attractive proposition.
If recent decades saw a huge migration that “brought workers to where the jobs are” along the coast, the future may mean the reverse, involving “bringing the jobs to where the workers are” with profound implications for China’s economic geography.
In lesser known provinces such as Henan, with a country- sized population of 100 million, large numbers of young workers seek factory positions but are unwilling to relocate to seemingly foreign places in coastal China. As China becomes more consumption-oriented with rising incomes and urbanization, the center of economic gravity will naturally move inland where two- thirds of the population resides.
College Graduates
Just as young workers are demanding more satisfying jobs, they also increasingly feel entitled to a college education. Government policy has expanded access to higher education. From 2000 to 2010, the percentage of college-age cohorts enrolled in universities more than tripled in China, a rate of increase far above that of India, Malaysia and Indonesia. China wants to produce 200 million college graduates by 2030; they will make up more than 20 percent of the projected labor force, more than double the current ratio. The push to expand higher education means the number of college-educated has leapfrogged — and excessively so — ahead of those holding only vocational or junior college degrees.
These college-educated workers are unwilling to settle for factory work and compete for office-based positions. College graduates are four times as likely to be unemployed as urban residents of the same age with only basic education, even as factories go begging for semi-skilled workers. Given the underdeveloped service sector and still-large roles of manufacturing and construction, China has created a serious mismatch between skills of the labor force and available jobs.
As the economy moves up the value chain, substituting more capital-intensive manufacturing for unskilled labor-intensive assembly, a shortage of semi-skilled workers is appearing. But the excessive growth of college graduates has outpaced the structural transition and prematurely shifted the labor supply from semi-skilled manufacturing workers to more knowledge- intensive service professionals. More emphasis on vocational training and industry-specific engineering skills will help China fill its immediate need for manufacturing workers.”
Yukon Huang and Clare Lynch are, respectively, a senior associate and a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The opinions expressed are their own.
via Where Have China’s Workers Gone? – Bloomberg.
Related articles
- China Surplus Labor to Disappear by 2025, IMF Researchers Say – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- * As Graduates Rise in China, Office Jobs Fail to Keep Up (chindia-alert.org)
- Foxconn Inland China Push Spurred by Labor, BI Says (bloomberg.com)
- Why A Labor Shortage Is Good News For The Chinese Economy (forbes.com)
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 