Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Carrier targets return of daily services to major Asian cities and more frequent long-haul services
Airline to monitor global situation and adjustments may be made ‘as necessary’
A Cathay Pacific employee stands near the check-in desks at a virtually deserted Hong Kong International Airport. Photo: Sam Tsang
Cathay Pacific Airways has signalled its intent to start reversing its near-total grounding of aircraft because of the coronavirus pandemic, and plans to start increasing its number of passenger flights in the last week of June.
The airline said it hoped to add more long-haul destinations, make flights more frequent, and reinstate some major Asian cities to its daily schedule for the first time in several months, “subject to government travel restrictions”.
Cathay scaled its operations back to a skeleton schedule of 3 per cent of services in early April, and that was extended until June 20. The newly announced increases would take that up to 5 per cent.
Tracking the massive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the world’s airline industry in early 2020 Singapore Airlines, another of Asia’s major carriers, said last week it would maintain a 96 per cent reduction in flights until the end of June.
Cathay, which has 236 aircraft, currently operates long-haul flights to London Heathrow, Los Angeles, Vancouver and Sydney twice a week, but will increase that to five times a week.
On top of that, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, San Francisco and Melbourne are among the long-haul destinations set to return three times a week.
With regional routes currently operating three times a week, including Tokyo Narita, Taipei, Beijing and Singapore, Asian routes will increase to a daily service. Osaka and Seoul would also return to the network, too.
“We will continue to monitor the developing situation and further adjustments may be made as necessary,” the airline said.
Coronavirus: ban on non-residents leaves Hong Kong airport virtually deserted
Earlier this month, Cathay’s budget unit HK Express extended its total grounding until June 18, having been on hiatus since March 23.
Meanwhile, Boeing has added to warnings of a very slow recovery in air travel, with Dave Calhoun, its CEO, saying demand may not return to 2019 levels for two to three years.
Cathay Pacific’s daily passenger volume has collapsed from regular previous peaks of 100,000 to less than 1,000 in April. Over the past two months, the company has been running more than 250 extra pairs of cargo-only passenger flights to maintain air freight capacity, much of which is accounted for by passenger services.
In a bid to cut costs, most of the Cathay Pacific Group’s 34,200 staff have taken three weeks of unpaid leave. Also, 433 cabin crew in the US and Canada were told they would be laid off, while about 200 pilots in the UK, Australia have been furloughed.
The International Air Transport Association, which revised down pandemic-related revenue losses for the global sector to US$314 billion (HK$2.4 trillion) two weeks ago, said last week the Hong Kong aviation market would take a US$7.5 billion hit this year, a 27 per cent increase on the previous estimate. That equates to a 59 per cent decline in air travel demand, or a loss of almost 31 million passengers, in 2020.
BOCOM International, a financial services company, forecast in a report on Monday that the city’s aviation sector would lose HK$65.2 billion in revenue in 2020, yet Cathay Pacific could emerge as a winner if it survived largely unscathed, given the weakness of rivals at home and in the region plus its dominant position in Hong Kong.
“Hong Kong aviation is at the most critical juncture in its history. Though calamitous, Covid-19 is set to reshape Hong Kong’s aviation industry for the years, possibly decades, to come,” said transportation analyst Luya You.
“Covid-19’s sweeping blows now offer a blank slate for remaining players to regain lost leadership or gain new markets. If [Cathay Pacific] can survive intact from Covid, the carrier could enjoy winner-takes-all growth trajectory in the years following [2020].”
Fu Chengyu, the former chairman of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), says hostility towards Beijing will increase after the coronavirus
US will try to ‘thwart China’s rise’ and economic fallout from Covid-19 will be worse than the global financial crisis, says Fu
Former Sinopec chairman Fu Chengyu says China will face a more hostile world post coronavirus. Photo: EPA
The world is set to become more hostile for China after the coronavirus as the risk of “black swan” events gathers for Beijing, a heavyweight in China’s state oil industry has warned, reflecting growing wariness about the geopolitical environment among political and business elites.
Fu Chengyu, the former chairman of both China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec Group, painted an ominous picture of increasing antagonism from the United States and damaging unforeseen events, known as black swans, like Covid-19
at an online symposium organised by business magazine Caijing.
The US would “mercilessly” suppress China in the fields of economics, trade, finance and technology, and Washington was set on taking advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to “forge a less favourable international environment for” the nation, Fu said this week.
“We’ve smelled the odours and new plots against China are in formation,” he said.
After the epidemic, the external environment for our survival will be more severe – Fu Chengyu
“After the epidemic, the external environment for our survival will be more severe … we must prepare for the worst and do our best to achieve the best possible results.”
While Fu has retired from his posts at state companies, he is an influential voice in
with decades of experience and contacts in the US petroleum sector.
Fu was a counterpart of Rex Tillerson, who was chairman of ExxonMobil from 2006 to 2017, and served as US State Secretary under President Donald Trump until March 2018.
While at the helm of CNOOC in the early 2000s, he felt political heat from Washington over a US$18.5 billion takeover bid for the American oil company Unocal in 2005, which the company was subsequently forced to withdraw.
China says no evidence to suggest coronavirus virus came from Wuhan’s lab
Speaking at the event in Beijing, Fu said that the coronavirus, which has heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington, will have impacts on global value chains and the world trade landscape for years to come.
“The crisis stemming from the coronavirus pandemic won’t be over in just one or two years … the impact will last longer than the 2008 global financial crisis,” he said.
He added that China would face numerous “black swan” risks in the future.
President Xi Jinping warned in 2019 that China must be on guard for black swan risks as well as “grey rhino” events, referring to an obvious threat that is often neglected.
Geopolitics is getting worse and worse, and we need to be very careful. The US will try various ways to thwart China’s rise, and energy is an important area
To respond to the economic fallout from the coronavirus, China must do more to create a self-sustaining domestic economy, Fu said, and in particular reduce input prices for gas and electricity and boost public services such as health care and education.
“Geopolitics is getting worse and worse, and we need to be very careful,” Fu said. “The US will try various ways to thwart China’s rise, and energy is an important area.”
The US could potentially form a new oil export alliance with Saudi Arabia and Russia to make it possible to cut oil supplies to China, he said.
“China must be prepared for such a scenario, and even when supplies are cut off, we can have some basic self-protection.”
Vietnamese vessels last year spent months shadowing the Chinese Haiyang Dizhi 8 survey vessel in resource-rich waters that are a potential global flashpoint as the
China and Vietnam ‘likely to clash again’ as they build maritime militias
12 Apr 2020
On Tuesday, the ship, which is used for offshore seismic surveys, appeared again 158km off Vietnam’s coast, within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), flanked by at least one Chinese coastguard vessel, according to data from Marine Traffic, a website that tracks shipping.
At least three Vietnamese vessels were moving with the Chinese ship, according to data issued by the Marine Traffic site.
South China Sea News@SCS_news
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Haiyang Dizhi 8 is heading toward #SouthChinaSea with several escort ships.
South China Sea News@SCS_news
About 50 nm ahead of Haiyang Dizhi 8 is a group of at least 3 #China Coast Guard ships, including the largest 5901. #SouthChinaSea
The presence of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 in Vietnam’s EEZ comes towards the scheduled end of a 15-day nationwide lockdown in Vietnam aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus.
“We call on the PRC to remain focused on supporting international efforts to combat the global pandemic, and to stop exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other states to expand its unlawful claims in the South China Sea,” the US State Department said in a statement, referring to China.
Vietnam pulls DreamWorks’ ‘Abominable’ over South China Sea map
, which also has disputed claims in the South China Sea, has raised its concerns too.
On Saturday, the Global Times, published by the official People’s Daily newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party, said Vietnam had used the fishing boat incident to distract from its “ineptitude” in handling the coronavirus.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Helped by a mass quarantine and aggressive contact-tracing, Vietnam has recorded 265 cases of the novel coronavirus and no deaths. Nearly 122,000 coronavirus tests have been carried out in Vietnam.
China and Vietnam have for years been at loggerheads over the potentially energy-rich waters, called the East Sea by Vietnam.
China’s U-shaped “nine-dash line” on its maps marks a vast expanse of the waters that it claims, including large parts of Vietnam’s continental shelf where it has awarded oil concessions.
and Brunei claim some of the waters that China claims to the south.
During the stand-off last year, at least one Chinese coastguard vessel spent weeks in waters close to an oil rig in a Vietnamese oil block, operated by Russia’s Rosneft, while the Haihyang Dizhi 8 conducted suspected oil exploration surveys in large expanses of Vietnam’s EEZ.
“The deployment of the vessel is Beijing’s move to once again baselessly assert its sovereignty in the South China Sea,” said Ha Hoang Hop, at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“China is using the coronavirus distraction to increase its assertiveness in the South China Sea, at a time when the US and Europe are struggling to cope with the new coronavirus.”
Embassy says those flown back must pay for themselves, and praises the US health system, in a departure from the war of words with Washington
More than a million Chinese students remain overseas, but China is on alert against the threat of imported infections
China has drastically cut flights to try to prevent people who arrive from abroad importing the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Chinese students could be flown home from coronavirus hotspots such as the United States but will have to pay their own expenses, amid efforts by Beijing to persuade some to remain overseas rather than risk bringing the infection with them.
A statement posted on the website of China’s Washington embassy on Monday said that the Chinese government was aware that many school and university students had encountered difficulties in travelling back to China and was taking steps to arrange charter flights for those who needed to return urgently.
With the initial coronavirus outbreak appearing to have been largely contained in mainland China, some Chinese students have travelled home despite soaring air ticket prices and the requirement that those who have been overseas enter quarantine.
Students brought back on charter flights would still need to pay for the ticket and the costs of the mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arrival in China.
Trump says US approaching a ‘horrendous’ time as coronavirus death toll rises
More than 1.6 million Chinese are studying overseas, including about 410,000 in the US. At least 1.42 million Chinese students remained overseas, vice foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu said on Thursday.
Having initially boasted of its success in stopping the virus, Beijing has become notably cautious in recent weeks about welcoming overseas students back home, especially with imported cases continuing to rise.
China’s foreign ministry and its overseas missions have urged students considering travelling home to exercise caution. The embassy in the US issued a notice on Friday speaking highly of the American medical system and its response to the pandemic, in a marked departure from Beijing’s narrative, which has included pinning the blame for the pandemic on the United States.
Friday’s embassy notice also dismissed rumours that Chinese students had been targeted because of the coronavirus during the closures of universities, and pledged help if students had trouble communicating with universities about campus accommodation.
China advises foreign diplomats to stay away from Beijing until May 15
3 Apr 2020
Ma said that most overseas students had heeded his government’s advice and chosen not to go back to China, but an online survey late last month that was cited by Caixin magazine on Saturday showed nearly 60 per cent of Chinese students in the US wanted to return home.
Most of the 4,000 students polled said they were unable to make the trip because of concerns about contracting the coronavirus during the journey and air fares that had more than doubled recently. Both China and the US have drastically cut back long-haul international flights.
After weeks stranded in Peru, 65 Hongkongers return home
6 Apr 2020
Students under 18 years of age who want to return to China are required by the embassy to register online.
The initial evacuation plan announced on Monday proposed to prioritise school-age children whose parents were not in the US with them. The proposed arrangement appeared to include students from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer psychology across the world, experts say
Complexity of the crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make a consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict
The coronavirus has caused panic buying around the world as consumers frantically stockpile of goods such as toilet paper, hand sanitisers and masks. Illustration: Brian Wang
Before the coronavirus crisis began rippling through the global economy, Susan Wang had big plans for 2020.
Not only was she going to buy a new Apple MacBook and iPad, plus a projector so she could host friends for movies at home, but she was set on making a career move.
“I was planning to change my job, but my headhunter told me that all recruitment has been postponed to the second quarter,” said the 27-year-old who works for a British company in Hong Kong.
“Our headquarters in London has a plan for redundancy, too. It is better to save some money in case I get laid off.”
As Covid-19 spreads across the world, sending stock markets reeling and prompting big companies to slash jobs, Wang has become increasingly frugal like scores of other consumers from China to the United States.
She has stopped eating at restaurants and now tries to keep her weekly food bill under HK$500 (US$64), whereas in the past she wouldn’t think twice about spending HK$100 per meal.
Amid mounting uncertainty, the coronavirus pandemic – which has claimed the lives of more than 41,000 people and infected at least 842,000 worldwide – is fundamentally changing consumer behaviour in Asia, Europe and North America.
Consumer experts said the 2009 global financial crisis, the Great Depression that started in 1929 and the September 11 terrorist attacks give some clues about how and when global consumption might recover. But the complexity of this crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make this consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict, they added.
Coronavirus: What impact will the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic have on you?
“The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode,” said Jesse Garcia, a Los Angeles-based consumer psychologist, who is also the CEO of market consulting firm My Marketing Auditors.
plummeted a record 44 per cent in February and those figures are only expected to get worse, with sales forecast to slump between 30 and 40 per cent in the first half of the year, according to the Hong Kong Retail Management Association.
In the US, retail sales dropped by 0.5 per cent in February, even before many states had issued stay-at-home orders to protect the world’s largest economy. The decline was the biggest fall since December 2018.
Experts say non-essential products and services are set to be worst affected by the coronavirus pandemic, while goods and services that can be consumed at home will see a spike in sales.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode – Jesse Garcia
“Online consumer behaviour is frenetic,” said Ross Steinman, a professor of psychology at Widener University in the US state of Pennsylvania. “Consumers are refreshing and refreshing and refreshing websites to secure grocery delivery times, purchase paper towels from their usual big box retailer and scavenge for rice and canned soup from third party sellers on Amazon.
“A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism.”
So far, one of the biggest shortages for consumers is toilet paper. Television stations across the globe have beamed images of empty supermarket shelves and huge queues as people hoard toilet paper rolls, masks and hand sanitiser.
The frantic stockpiling can be explained by a psychological concept called informational conformity, said Vicki Yeung, associate professor at the Department of Applied Psychology at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism – Ross Steinman
“When people lack knowledge and are in an uncertain situation, they tend to follow the group’s behaviour and blindly conform, but once they obtain more information, and digest and process the situation, the panic gradually fades away,” she said.
“During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared.”
Unlike other recent global crises such as the September 11 attacks, the coronavirus is less a one-time sharp shock to the system and more of a rolling source of anxiety that could retreat and resurface repeatedly, consumer behaviour experts said.
This was the pattern with the Black Death plague that hit Europe in 1347 and returned episodically over many years, ultimately killing millions of people.
During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared – Vicki Yeung
“It may be we’ll have to shut down things again in October or August. And this could go on for years,” said Charley Ballard, an economist with Michigan State University in the US. “The more that happens, the more damage it does to buoyant consumer psychology.”
Furthermore, relative to the 2009 financial crisis and even the Great Depression, when much of the damage was concentrated at least initially in the financial sector, this crisis has seen virtually the entire economy grind to a halt all at the same time, devastating employment and consumption.
Last week, a record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits within one week, as restaurants, hotels, barber shops, gyms and retail outlets shut down in a nationwide bid to stem the pandemic. The previous record of 695,000 was set in 1982.
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs predicted the US jobless rate will hit 15 per cent in the second quarter of this year from the coronavirus economic freeze, and could rise further beyond that to near the historic peak of 24.9 per cent seen in 1933 during the Great Depression. Economists at the St. Louis district of the US Federal Reserve projected unemployment could cost as many as 47 million jobs in the US this year, sending the unemployment rate past 32 per cent before making a sharp recovery.
US now has world’s most coronavirus cases, surpassing China
China’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.2 per cent for January and February from 5.2 per cent in December and 5.3 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest level since records began in 2016, but did not include China’s estimated 291 million migrant workers.
Consumer spending accounts for more than 60 per cent of the Chinese economy and drives 70 per cent of the US economy. But with the pandemic causing many people to go into hibernation and likely to lead to cycles of job cuts, economists have predicted a consumer-led global recession by the second quarter of this year.
Just how long it will take for consumer behaviour to return to normal depends on each person’s psychological resilience, including how quickly they can adapt to change, how optimistic they are and whether they can adopt strategies to regain a sense of control, Yeung said.
Anirban Mukhopadhyay, chair professor of marketing at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said as long as the coronavirus threat was still present, people would remain fearful to some extent. But he added that people were resilient.
Satellite images show world sites deserted amid coronavirus pandemic
“Human beings adapt to events and stimuli over time,” Mukhopadhyay said. “Research has shown that even people who win lotteries tend to return to their earlier levels of life satisfaction after some months, as do people who have to have amputations.
“So even if the source of the fear does not go away, we learn to live with it.”
Ballard, from Michigan State University, estimated it could take upwards of two years for American consumers to feel secure enough in their jobs and gain enough confidence to fully open their wallets. A longer and more episodic duration for the disease could push that higher, he added.
Further complicating the consumer picture, he said, is that many supply chains are at risk of breaking. And consumers will be wary of spending for a while in many traditional areas, including crowded sporting events and concerts, restaurants and flights.
A new phase of coronavirus blame game: what is the legacy of Covid-19 on global supply chains?
Some experts have even suggested that consumer behaviour may be permanently changed as a result of the pandemic.
“It seems very unlikely that people will get back to life as it was before, once the coronavirus is over,” said Andreas Kappes, a lecturer in psychology at City University of London.
“People’s behaviour is extremely orthodox, often referred to as the status quo bias and captured in expressions like ‘past behaviour best predicts future behaviour.’ Now, the crisis forces us to change our behaviour, radically, and we might discover that new way suits us better.”
The philanthropic foundations of Jack Ma and Joe Tsai, two of China’s wealthiest technology entrepreneurs, have donated 23 million face masks, 2,000 ventilators and 170,000 pieces of protective gear to New York
The donation, the biggest by private citizens to the epicentre of the global coronavirus pandemic, was described by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo as ‘really good news’
A shipment of 1,000 ventilators donated by Jack Ma Foundation and Joe Tsai Foundation, has arrived in New York. Photo: Handout
Chinese philanthropists are stepping up their donation of protective gear, essential medical and diagnostic kits to the United States, Europe and Asian countries, despite rising acrimony between diplomats and government officials looking to pin blame amid the world’s worst pandemic in decades.
The private foundations of Jack Ma and Joe Tsai, co-founders of this newspaper’s owner Alibaba Group Holding and two of China’s wealthiest technology entrepreneurs, have donated a combined 23 million face masks, 2,000 medical ventilators and 170,000 pieces of protective gear to New York city.
The first 1,000 medical ventilators arrived today, with another 1,000 on the way, for a total donation valued at US$50 million, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Delivery of the essential materials, made possible by behind-the-scene manoeuvres by the donors and officials from both the Chinese and US sides due to import and export regulatory hurdles, highlights the role of civil diplomacy in dealing with the global public health crisis.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo thanks the Chinese government for the 1,000 ventilators donated by Jack Ma Foundation and Joe Tsai Foundation, which arrived in New York on Saturday. Photo: Handout
The gesture comes as diplomats of both countries, and even government officials including the US president and his secretary of state, have engaged in a tit-for-tat war of words, as they attempt to pin the blame for the worlds worst pandemic in decades on each other.
Confirmed cases in the US have soared and surpassed China as the new global epicentre. In the US there are nearly 310,000 cases and nearly 8,500 people have died so far from the Covid-19 disease.
Jack Ma is a friend of mine and he’s made it very possible to get about 1,000 ventilators from China. But that was from him and my other friend [Tsai] that was really a gift – Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York
Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, thanked the Chinese government for easing the transfer of the ventilators to the hard-hit state, the current epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the US.
He said the donations were “really good news”, as the state pushes up against the apex of the outbreak, which is likely to hit in about seven days.
“This is a big deal, and this is going to make a significant difference for us,” Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday.
“Jack Ma is a friend of mine and he’s made it very possible to get about 1,000 ventilators from China. But that was from him and my other friend [Tsai] that was really a gift. And we appreciate it very much.”
One of the challenges in making the donation possible was the fact that the US had previously blocked China-made “KN95” standard masks, only allowing “3M N95” masks to be used. Although the two masks have different standards, they essentially have the same performance. On Friday, the US Food and Drugs Administration issued an emergency use authorisation for KN95 masks.
Alfred Wu, associate professor in Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore, said that what China is doing with its so-called masks diplomacy is very clear. “But given the emergency situation in New York, whatever channel – private or public sources – the equipment comes from, should not matter, especially those for medical workers,” he said.
Separately, the western state of Oregon has also said that it would send 140 ventilators to New York.
The state, like other areas of the US, is facing shortages of medical gear, including masks and ventilators.
“We are not yet at the apex. We are getting closer,” Cuomo said, adding that this was good as it gave the authorities more time to prepare.
A tweet from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo thanking the Chinese government for the 1,000 ventilators donated by Jack Ma Foundation and Joe Tsai Foundation. Photo: Twitter
Cuomo said 113,704 people in New York have tested positive for the coronavirus, with 15,000 having been hospitalised The state’s death toll saw a significant spike on Saturday to reach 3,565, up from 2,935 the previous day.
The White House has been criticised for not better coordinating the supply of medical goods to states, who are competing with each other on the open market.
NUS’ Wu said that tussle between the federal and state governments in the US on key decisions on acquiring medical supplies was not helping the fight against the pandemic. “Unlike in China, where the central government has the say over local governments, in the US, when it comes to public health provision, the power belongs to the state,” he said.
Meanwhile, Cuomo acknowledged that he asked the White House and others for help negotiating the ventilators.
Trump said he would like to hear a more resounding “thank you” from Cuomo for providing medical supplies and helping quickly to add hospital capacity.
Giuseppe Remuzzi’s comments were seized on by Chinese state media amid the acrimonious row with the US, but he says the key question is how far Covid-19 had spread before it was identified
Academic says ‘strange pneumonias’ in Italy last November suggest it may have reached Europe before anyone knew what the disease was
Giuseppe Remuzzi told NPR there had been ‘strange pneumonias’ in Italy in November and December. Photo: Handout
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 may have spread beyond China before the health authorities had even discovered the disease, according to the Italian professor who recently said there had been “very strange pneumonias” in Europe as early as November last year.
Remuzzi’s comments attracted much attention in China, where the authorities have been working hard to steer the international narrative about the pandemic, and stop people describing it as the “China virus” or “Wuhan virus” after the city where the disease was first identified.
In an interview with the Chinese science and technology news outlet DeepTech, which was published on Tuesday, Remuzzi said the key point in his NPR interview was not where the virus came from, but how far it had spread before it was discovered.
Coronavirus: Italy has a brief glimpse of hope as new cases drop to a five-day low
24 Mar 2020
He said a major question was how long the disease, which has so far infected more than 378,000 and killed over 16,500 people worldwide, had been spreading in China before health authorities realised its severity.
Taking into account the long incubation period, Remuzzi said he would not be surprised if some asymptomatic carriers had travelled around China or even abroad before December.
The professor also said that while it was possible it originated outside Wuhan, there had so far been no proof to support the theory.
As the outbreak gathered pace in the US, where it has now killed more than 500 people, Washington has escalated its rhetoric. President Donald Trump had repeatedly referred to it publicly as the “Chinese virus” until he changed tone on Monday and declined to use the phrase.
China, meanwhile, has described the rhetoric adopted by “certain US politicians and senior officials” as an attempt to defame and stigmatise China over the pandemic.
A number of Chinese state media outlets, including party mouthpiece People’s Daily and its tabloid affiliate Global Times, seized on Remuzzi’s comments about “strange pneumonias” to counter the “Chinese virus rhetoric”.
Coronavirus: why are so many more people dying in Italy than Germany?
23 Mar 2020
In the NPR interview, Remuzzi tried to explain why Italy had been caught off guard when the outbreak started gathering pace in February.
He discussed the difficulty of combating a disease that people did not know existed, and said the unusual cases in November and December could mean that virus was already circulating in Lombardy, the country’s worst-hit region, before people were aware of what was unfolding in Wuhan.
Remuzzi also shared details of the early suspected cases in Lombardy with DeepTech and Chinese state-run international network CGTN.
Remuzzi said he had learned about the cases from a few general practitioners and he has not yet been able to verify the information.
But he said there are some other suspicious cases he “knows for sure”, including two pneumonia cases in Scanzorosciate in northern Italy in December, where the patients developed high fever, a cough and had difficulty in breathing.
He said there had also been 10 patients who developed bilateral interstitial pneumonia in two other nearby towns, Fara Gera D’Adda and Crema, who had similar symptoms.
Coronavirus: confusion as Chinese face masks bound for Italy end up in Czech Republic
23 Mar 2020
Remuzzi said local doctors considered these cases to be “unusual” but ruled out the possibility of seasonal influenza, as all these patients had been vaccinated.
“The reason we don’t know if it was Covid-19 is because at that time this could not be tested; the patients didn’t have X-rays,” he told CGTN.
They recovered within 15 days, with some receiving two or three courses of antibiotics.
Remuzzi added there had also been a patient diagnosed with bilateral interstitial pneumonia in Alzano Lombardo Hospital in Lombardy around the time.
Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says
An international team of scientists say the coronavirus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in China. Photo: AP
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 might have been quietly spreading among humans for years or even decades before the sudden outbreak that sparked a global health crisis, according to an investigation by some of the world’s top virus hunters.
Researchers from the United States, Britain and Australia looked at piles of data released by scientists around the world for clues about the virus’ evolutionary past, and found it might have made the jump from animal to humans long before the first detection in the central China city of Wuhan.
Though there could be other possibilities, the scientists said the coronavirus carried a unique mutation that was not found in suspected animal hosts, but was likely to occur during repeated, small-cluster infections in humans.
The study, conducted by Kristian Andersen from the Scripps Research Institute in California, Andrew Rambaut from the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, Ian Lipkin from Columbia University in New York, Edward Holmes from the University of Sydney, and Robert Garry from Tulane University in New Orleans, was published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine on March 17.
Dr Francis Collins, director of the US National Institute of Health, who was not involved in the research, said the study suggested a possible scenario in which the coronavirus crossed from animals into humans before it became capable of causing disease in people.
“Then, as a result of gradual evolutionary changes over years or perhaps decades, the virus eventually gained the ability to spread from human to human and cause serious, often life-threatening disease,” he said in an article published on the institute’s website on Thursday.
In December, doctors in Wuhan began noticing a surge in the number of people suffering from a mysterious pneumonia. Tests for flu and other pathogens returned negative. An unknown strain was isolated, and a team from the Wuhan Institute of Virology led by Shi Zhengli traced its origin to a bat virus found in a mountain cave close to the China-Myanmar border.
The two viruses shared more than 96 per cent of their genes, but the bat virus could not infect humans. It lacked a spike protein to bind with receptors in human cells.
Coronaviruses with a similar spike protein were later discovered in Malayan pangolins
by separate teams from Guangzhou and Hong Kong, which led some researchers to believe that a recombination of genomes had occurred between the bat and pangolin viruses.
Doctors in Wuhan began noticing a surge in the number of people suffering from a mysterious pneumonia in December. Photo: Handout
But the new strain, or SARS-Cov-2, had a mutation in its genes known as a polybasic cleavage site that was unseen in any coronaviruses found in bats or pangolins, according to Andersen and his colleagues.
This mutation, according to separate studies by researchers from China, France and the US, could produce a unique structure in the virus’ spike protein to interact with furin, a widely distributed enzyme in the human body. That could then trigger a fusion of the viral envelope and human cell membrane when they came into contact with one another.
Some human viruses including HIV and Ebola have the same furin-like cleavage site, which makes them contagious.
It is possible that the mutation happened naturally to the virus on animal hosts. Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and Mers (Middle East respiratory syndrome), for instance, were believed to have been direct descendants of species found in masked civets and camels, which had a 99 per cent genetic similarity.
There was, however, no such direct evidence for the novel coronavirus, according to the international team. The gap between human and animal types was too large, they said, so they proposed another alternative.
“It is possible that a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 jumped into humans, acquiring the genomic features described above through adaptation during undetected human-to-human transmission,” they said in the paper.
“Once acquired, these adaptations would enable the pandemic to take off and produce a sufficiently large cluster of cases to trigger the surveillance system that detected it.”
They said also that the most powerful computer models based on current knowledge about the coronavirus could not generate such a strange but highly efficient spike protein structure to bind with host cells.
The study had significantly reduced, if not ruled out, the possibility of a laboratory origin, Collins said.
“In fact, any bioengineer trying to design a coronavirus that threatened human health probably would never have chosen this particular conformation for a spike protein,” he said.
The findings by Western scientists echoed the mainstream opinion among Chinese researchers.
Zhong Nanshan, who advises Beijing on outbreak containment policies, had said on numerous occasions that there was growing scientific evidence to suggest the origin of the virus might not have been in China.
“The occurrence of Covid-19 in Wuhan does not mean it originated in Wuhan,” he said last week.
A doctor working in a public hospital treating Covid-19 patients in Beijing said numerous cases of mysterious pneumonia outbreaks had been reported by health professionals in several countries last year.
Re-examining the records and samples of these patients could reveal more clues about the history of this worsening pandemic, said the doctor, who asked not to be named due to the political sensitivity of the issue.
“There will be a day when the whole thing comes to light.”
With India under lockdown and social distancing being advised to deal with the threat of the coronavirus, an online collective of “Caremongers” is reaching out to help the elderly and other vulnerable groups.
It started last week when Mahita Nagaraj, a digital marketing professional and single mum, received a call from a close friend in the UK requesting her to help arrange some medicines for her “very elderly parents”.
Within hours, she heard from another friend living in the US with a similar question: can you ensure that my parents have provisions for the month?
Ms Nagaraj, who lives in the southern city of Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore), says that set her thinking about other friends whose elderly parents didn’t have anyone to call upon.
So, she posted a message on Facebook asking people to get in touch if they needed help.
The response she got was “overwhelming”. People reached out to her from all over India and, surprisingly, most who got in touch said they wanted to help out too.
And thus was born Caremongers India – a Facebook group, asking people to “stop scaremongering and start caremongering” – on 17 March.
“There is so much scaremongering in the current scenario,” says Ms Nagaraj. “We are trying to address the feeling of helplessness in the people. We are telling people to stop spreading fear and panic, and instead spread love.”
Image copyright CAREMONGERS INDIAImage caption Mahita Nagaraj set up Caremongers India after her friends called her to seek help
Ms Nagaraj says she learnt about caremongering from a BBC article from Canada. The concept actually started in Toronto to help vulnerable people, but within days it spread to cover almost all of Canada with tens of thousands signing up.
Reports of altruism have come in from other parts of the world too. Britons are delivering soup to the elderly, in the US neighbours are helping those quarantined with buying groceries and one Long Island mother, infected with the virus, wrote about a neighbour who cooked a lasagne and left it outside her door.
Along with all the fear and panic caused by the coronavirus, the pandemic has also seen kindness go viral across the globe, with neighbours and complete strangers pitching in to help.
In India too, caremongering took off from the word go – in the first 24 hours, the Facebook group had 200 members. A week later, it has become a pan-India network with more than 6,500 volunteers.
Ms Nagaraj says she realised that on Facebook, most people were getting in touch to offer help, but only a few were asking for help. So, on Friday night, she launched a helpline number and since then, “it’s gone crazy”.
Caremongers India offers help to those who are most at risk of health complications due to the virus like the elderly, the disabled, those with pre-existing health conditions and anyone with an infant under a year.
In less than a week, Ms Nagaraj says, she has received thousands of calls and messages and although a large number of them have been to verify whether the number is genuine, she has also taken hundreds of requests for assistance.
Listed on the Caremongers India page are countless examples of assistance sought and provided; and testimonials and messages of gratitude.
Image copyright IMAGE COURTESY: DUNZOBesides those calling in from within India, Ms Nagaraj has been fielding dozens of calls from people across the globe seeking help for their elderly parents and grandparents.
“When people give their requirement and address, we match the requester with the closest volunteer,” she explains.
So last Saturday, when Amit Joshi, a resident of an upscale apartment block in the Delhi suburb of Noida, called the helpline, he was connected to Caremonger Madhavi Juneja, who also lives in Noida.
“We woke up to the news that our apartment complex was under lockdown,” Mr Joshi told me.
A resident had tested positive for the coronavirus and Mr Joshi was informed that they would not be allowed to leave home for a week.
“Police had put up barricades outside on the road and our complex was swamped with disaster management teams and health officials. Everything around us was shuttered. There was complete panic,” he says.
Mr Joshi, who lives with his wife and elderly parents, says his biggest worry was how to get essentials like bread and milk.
And when he received a random WhatsApp forward from a colleague about Caremongers India, he decided to call them.
A few hours later, Ms Juneja, a psychotherapist and life coach, turned up at the gate of Mr Joshi’s housing society and handed over the supplies to him.
“I wore a mask and took my bottle of hand sanitiser and drove to his complex to carry out the delivery,” she said.
“Because the street was barricaded, I parked my car and then walked. If I had left it outside, someone else could have taken it. After I handed over the package to him, I sanitised my hands and got back into my car.”
Media caption People panicked after Narendra Modi said nobody should leave their homes, and did not mention the status of essential supplies
Mr Joshi says, “In trying times like these, to have people selflessly reaching out to those in need has strengthened my belief in humanity.”
Ms Nagaraj says it’s “so heartening” to see that so many people want to help.
“Every request we receive is very special when we fulfil it. When a daughter calls to say her dad who lives alone requires provisions, we work hard to ensure he gets it.”
Ms Nagaraj says caremongering has taken over life and even her home.
“It’s not easy to answer 450 calls a day,” she says, “but when you help others, you go to bed thinking you haven’t wasted your day and that’s good enough for me.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Many Indians face losing their income and some say they could starve
India has announced a $22bn (£19bn) bailout for the country’s poor to help counter the economic effects of the Covid-19 outbreak.
“We don’t want anyone to remain hungry, and we don’t want anyone to remain without money in their hands,” finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.
The package, which includes free food and cash transfers, was for “those who need immediate help”, she said.
She also said health workers would get medical insurance of up to $66,500.
Correspondents point out that this amounts to just 1% of India’s GDP – in stark contrast to the US and Singapore which are spending about 10% of their GDP on similar packages.
However, this could be just stage one, with similar packages set to be announced later, they added.
India’s economy was already in the midst of a severe slowdown before the country went into lockdown, shutting workplaces, factories and affecting millions of daily-wage and informal workers.
They form India’s vast informal sector, which constitutes a large part of its workforce. The lockdown and social distancing have left many of them with no viable means of getting any income, and many have expressed fears that they could starve.
Growth had slumped to 4.7% last month – the slowest pace in years – as a steep drop in manufacturing affected overall economic health.
Barclays said the total shutdown cost to India would be around $120bn, or 4% of the country’s GDP.
Ms Sitharaman, who is also the head of an economic task force announced by the prime minister, said that workers under an employment guarantee scheme would get a wage increment, and that recipients of other welfare schemes would also get benefits, like free gas cylinders instead of just subsidised ones.
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