03/05/2020
BEIJING (Reuters) – General Motors’ sales in China saw double-digit year-on-year growth in April, its two local ventures said on Sunday, as the world’s biggest auto market recovers from the coronavirus.
GM’s (GM.N) joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS), which manufactures Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac vehicles, said its sales in China grew 13.6% compared to a year earlier. It said it had sold 111,155 units in April, including exported cars.
Meanwhile, SGMW, a separate GM venture with SAIC and Guangxi Automobile Group which produces no-frills minivans and has started to make higher-end cars, said its sales jumped 13.5% to over 127,000 units last month.
U.S. automaker GM, which is China’s second biggest foreign car company after Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), said its sales in China fell 43.3% in the first three months of 2020 compared with the same period last year.
To attract customers, GM and SAIC have hired social media celebrities to promote its new models and are offering free medical masks to customers.
China’s biggest automaker SAIC, which sold more than 6 million cars last year, said its sales rose 0.5% compared to the same period last year. As well as the GM venture, it also builds its own brand cars and operates a venture with Volkswagen.
Source: Reuters
Posted in April, Buick, Cadillac, cars, Chevrolet, China sales, coronavirus, double-digit, General Motors, GM, GM’s (GM.N), growth, Guangxi Automobile Group, higher-end, joint venture, jumped, last month, manufactures, market, minivans, no-frills, rebound, recovers, SAIC Motor Corp, SAIC's, Sales, SGMW, Sunday, Uncategorized, vehicles, world’s biggest auto market, year-on-year |
Leave a Comment »
25/04/2020
- But trade with partner countries might not be as badly affected as with countries elsewhere in the world, observers say
- China’s trade with belt and road countries rose by 3.2 per cent in the January-March period, but second-quarter results will depend on how well they manage to contain the pathogen, academic says
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
The
coronavirus pandemic is set to cause a slump in Chinese investment in its signature
and a dip in trade with partner countries that could take a year to overcome, analysts say.
But the impact of the health crisis on China’s economic relations with nations involved in the ambitious infrastructure development programme might not be as great as on those that are not.
China’s total foreign trade in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 6.4 per cent year on year, according to official figures from Beijing.
Trade with the United States, Europe and Japan all dropped in the period, by 18.3, 10.4 and 8.1 per cent, respectively, the commerce ministry said.
By comparison, China’s trade with belt and road countries increased by 3.2 per cent in the first quarter, although the growth figure was lower than the 10.8 per cent reported for the whole of 2019.
China’s trade with 56 belt and road countries – located across Africa, Asia,
Europe and South America – accounts for about 30 per cent of its total annual volume, according to the commerce ministry.
Despite the first-quarter growth, Tong Jiadong, a professor of international trade at Nankai University in Tianjin, said he expected China’s trade with belt and road countries to fall by between 2 and 5 per cent this year.
His predictions are less gloomy than the 13 to 32 per cent contraction in global trade forecast for this year by the
World Trade Organisation.
“A drop in [China’s total] first-quarter trade was inevitable but it slowly started to recover as it resumed production, especially with Southeast Asian, Eastern European and Arab countries,” Tong said.
“The second quarter will really depend on how the epidemic is contained in belt and road countries.”
Nick Marro, Hong Kong-based head of global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said he expected China’s total overseas direct investment to fall by about 30 per cent this year, which would be bad news for the belt and road plan.
“This will derive from a combination of growing domestic stress in China, enhanced regulatory scrutiny over Chinese investment in major international markets, and weakened global economic prospects that will naturally depress investment demand,” he said.
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed, while infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the Payra coal-fired power plant, have been put on hold.
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
Marro said the reduction of capital and labour from China might complicate other projects for key belt and road partner, like Pakistan, which is home to infrastructure projects worth tens of billions of US dollars, and funded and built in large part by China.
“Pakistan looks concerning, particularly in terms of how we’ve assessed its sovereign and currency risk,” Marro said.
“Public debt is high compared to other emerging markets, while the coronavirus will push the budget deficit to expand to 10 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] this year.”
Last week, Pakistan asked China for a 10-year extension to the repayment period on US$30 billion worth of loans used to fund the development of infrastructure projects, according to a report by local newspaper Dawn.
China’s overseas investment has been falling steadily from its peak in 2016, mostly as a result of Beijing’s curbs on capital outflows.
Last year, the direct investment by Chinese companies and organisations other than banks in belt and road countries fell 3.8 per cent from 2018 to US$15 billion, with most of the money going to South and Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan.
Tong said the pandemic had made Chinese investors nervous about putting their money in countries where disease control measures were becoming increasingly stringent, but added that the pause in activity would give all parties time to regroup.
“Investment in the second quarter will decline and allow time for the questions to be answered,” he said.
“Past experience along the belt and road has taught many lessons to both China and its partners, and forced them to think calmly about their own interests. The epidemic provides both parties with a good time for this.”
Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten, a senior research fellow at Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, said China’s post-pandemic strategy for the
belt and road in Europe
might include a shift away from investing in high-profile infrastructure projects like ports and airports.
Investors might instead cooperate with transport and logistics providers rather than invest directly, he said.
“Even though in the coming years the amount of money China loans and invests abroad may be lower than in the peak years around 2015-16, I expect it to maintain the belt and road plan as its overall strategic framework for its foreign economic relations,” he said.
Source: SCMP
Posted in 10-year, 2018, 2019, 2020, 30, academic, according, accounts, across, activity, africa, airports, allow, ambitious, analysts, annual volume, answered, Arab countries, Asia, bad news, Bangladesh, because, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, belt and road plan, billion, billions, budget deficit, Cambodian, capital, capital outflows, cause, China, China’s, Chinese, Clingendael Institute, combination, Commerce Ministry, compared, comparison, complicate, contained, contraction, cooperate, coronavirus, Coronavirus pandemic, countries, curbs, Currency, curtailed, Dawn, decline, demand, depend, depress, derive, development, dip, direct investment, disease control measures, domestic stress, dropped, Eastern European, economic prospects, economic relations, Economist Intelligence Unit, elsewhere, Emerging markets, enhanced, epidemic, especially, Europe, extension, fall, falling, Fell, figure, first-quarter, forecast, foreign, foreign trade, GDP [gross domestic product], global trade, gloomy, great, growth, health crisis, high, impact, increased, increasingly, Indonesia, inevitable, Infrastructure, infrastructure projects, international markets, International trade, Investment, investors, involved, January, Japan, Labour, last week, loans, local newspaper, located, logistics, lower, Major, manage, March, might not, nations, naturally, nervous, Netherlands, observers, official figures, on hold, other, overall strategic framework, overcome, overseas, Pakistan, pandemic, parties, partner, pathogen, pause, Payra coal-fired power plant,, per cent, Period, ports, predictions, production, professor, programme, providers, Public debt, put, questions, recover, reduction, regroup, regulatory scrutiny, repayment, reported, results, resumed, Risk, second-quarter, signature, Singapore, slowed, slower, slump, South, South America, Southeast Asian, sovereign, special economic zone, stringent, take, this year, Tianjin, time, Total, town, Trade, Transport, Uncategorized, United States, US dollars, US$30, Vietnam, weakened, while, World, world trade organisation, worth, year, year-on-year |
Leave a Comment »
23/04/2020
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Indian economy is likely to suffer its worst quarter since the mid-1990s, hit by the ongoing lockdown imposed to stem the spread of coronavirus, according to a Reuters poll, which predicted a mild and gradual recovery.
Over 2.6 million people tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 have been infected by the coronavirus worldwide and more than 180,000 have died. Business and household lockdowns have disrupted supply chains globally, bringing growth to a halt.
The April 17-22 Reuters poll predicted the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.0% last quarter but will shrink 5.2% in the three months ending in June, far weaker than expectations in a poll published last month for 4.0% and 2.0% growth, respectively.
The predicted contraction would be the first – under any gross domestic product calculation, which has changed a few times – since the mid-1990s, when official reporting for quarterly data began.
“The extended lockdown until early May adds further downside risk to our view of a 5% year-on-year GDP fall in the current quarter, the worst in the last few decades,” said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.
“We don’t consider economic stimulus as strong enough to position the economy for a speedy recovery once the pandemic ends,” he said.
(Graphic: Reuters poll graphic on coronavirus impact on the Indian economy IMAGE link: here)
The Indian government announced a spending package of 1.7 trillion rupees in March to cushion the economy from the initial lockdown, which has been extended until May 3.
In an emergency meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of India cut its deposit rate again, after reducing it on March 27 and lowering the main policy rate by 75 basis points. It also announced another round of targeted long-term repo operations to ease liquidity.
But even with those measures, 40% of economists, or 13 of 32 – who provided quarterly figures – predicted an outright recession this year. Only one had expected a recession last month.
In the worst case, a smaller sample of respondents predicted, the economy would contract 9.3% in the current quarter. That compares with 0.5% growth in the previous poll’s worst-case forecast in late March, underscoring how rapidly the outlook has deteriorated.
The latest poll’s consensus view still shows the economy recovering again slowly in the July-September quarter, growing 0.8%, then 4.2% in October-December and 6.0% in the final quarter of the fiscal year, in early 2021.
But that compares with considerably more optimistic near-term forecasts of 3.3%, 5.0% and 5.6%, respectively, in the previous poll.
“A rebound in economic activity following the disruption is expected, but the low starting point of growth implies a gradual recovery,” said Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley.
“Indeed, before disruptions related to COVID-19, growth was slowing, with domestic issues of risk aversion in financial sector … (and) those concerns will likely stay after the COVID-19 disruptions have passed unless the policy response is much larger than expected,” she said.
The unemployment rate has tripled to 23.8% since the lockdown started on March 25, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a Mumbai-based research firm.
The Indian economy was now forecast to expand 1.5% in the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2021 – the weakest since 1991 and significantly lower than 3.6% predicted in late March. It probably grew 4.6% in the fiscal year that just ended.
Under a worst-case scenario, the median showed the economy shrinking 1.0% this fiscal year. That would be the first officially reported economic contraction for a 12-month period since GDP was reported to have contracted for calendar year 1979.
“Unless fiscal policy is also loosened aggressively alongside monetary policy, there is a big risk the drastic economic slowdown currently underway morphs into an annual contraction in output and that the recovery is hampered,” said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.
All 37 economists who answered a separate question unanimously said the RBI would follow up with more easing, including lowering the repo and reverse repo rates and expanding the new long-term loans programme.
The RBI was expected to cut its repo rate by another 40 basis points to 4.00% by the end of this quarter. Already lowered twice over the past month by a cumulative 115 basis points, the reverse repo rate was forecast to be trimmed by another 25 points by end-June to 3.50%.
Source: Reuters
Posted in 5, according, after, again, announced, annual pace, another, any, Asia economist, basis points, began, Bengaluru, bringing, Business, but, calculation, Capital Economics, consider, contraction, coronavirus, coronavirus impact, COVID-19, cushion, cut, decades, deposit, died, disrupted, downside, ease, economic stimulus, Economists, economy, emergency, ending, ends, enough, even with, expanded, EXPECTATIONS, expected, extended, fall, figures, first, Fiscal policy, GDP, globally, gradual, Gross domestic product, growth, halt, Household, imposed, India economist, Indian economy, Indian governments, infected, initial, June, last few, last month, last quarter, last week, liquidity, lockdown, lockdowns, Locked-down, long term, lowering, main policy\, March, May, measures, meeting, mid-1990s, mild, million, months, more than, Official, once, ongoing, Only one, operations, outright, pandemic, People, position, predicted, provided, published, quarter, quarterly, rate, Recession, recovery, reducing, repo, reporting, Reserve Bank of India, respectively, respondents, Reuters Poll, Risk, round, rupees, sample, shrink, since, smaller, speedy, spending package, spread, stem, strong, suffer, supply chains, targeted, this year, Three, trillion, Uncategorized, under, Until, view, weaker, worldwide, worst, worst case, year-on-year |
Leave a Comment »
20/04/2020
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
Source: Reuters
Posted in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2029, 40, African swine fever, agriculture, Agriculture ministry, Aid, beef, Beijing, biggest, buyer, challenges, China, China’s, Combined, Consumer, consumer demand, coronavirus outbreak, crush, decade, decimated, decline, delayed, despite, domestic supply, drop, due, expected, expects, fall, favourite, February, feed, following, forecast, from, globally, gradually, heads, herds, high, higher, hit, However, imports, increasing, industry, key, levels, Livestock, longer term, make up, meal, Meat, million, ministry, Monday, months, more, mutton, next, novel coronavirus outbreak, Official, outbreak, outlook, output, over, per year, Pig, pig herd, plants, Pork, previous, prices, rebound, recent, record, reducing, released, restart, rising, rose, sees, Shanghai, slashed, slaughtered, slaughtering, Soybean, supplies, surge, this year, to import, told, tonnes, Transport, typically, Uncategorized, video conference, while, world’s, year-on-year |
Leave a Comment »
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
