Posts tagged ‘1997 Asian financial crisis’

15/02/2016

Home on the Range, Chinese Style – China Real Time Report – WSJ

It’s a small step in the right direction, driven more by necessity than enlightened policy.

That’s the view from economists on China’s move this year to put forward a range for its economic growth target rather than a single number. The head of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said early this month that the 2016 target is likely to be “6.5% to 7%,” the first time in recent memory that China has used such a band. The target is set to be officially released early next month when China’s parliament convenes.

For decades, Beijing beat its annual growth targets without breaking a sweat. More recently, as growth decelerated faster than expected, it has faced growing difficulty hitting its number, so a range provides more wiggle room.

This follows Beijing’s decision to add an “about” to both its 7.5% target in 2014 and its 7% target last year. The adjective proved handy when the actual growth figures wound up falling short both times.

The risk this year, economists say, is that even a 6.5% to 7% target may be too high, heaping pressure on local officials to artificially stimulate growth in ways that increase debt and blunt reform initiatives.

This is also the year that China sets a growth target for the coming five years that’s expected to be 6.5%, in line with a Communist Party goal of doubling per capita income by 2020 over 2010 levels. This benchmark also may be high, analysts said, given China’s many structural problems and so-far limited appetite for reform.

“If they really stick to the 6.5% target by adopting unsustainable policies, throwing up more credit, they face a bigger problem with debt down the road,” said Fitch Ratings Inc. analyst Andrew Colquhoun. “Many emerging market problems in the past have happened when countries veer off and start to believe their own hype on what growth is possible.”

Source: Home on the Range, Chinese Style – China Real Time Report – WSJ

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05/03/2015

China 2015 defense budget to grow 10.1 pct, lowest in 5 years – Xinhua | English.news.cn

China on Thursday announced a 10.1-percent rise in its national defense budget in 2015, the lowest growth in five years as the country confronts mounting pressure in the face of an economic slowdown.

According to a budget report released shortly before the country’s top legislature starts its annual session, the government plans to raise defense budget to 886.9 billion yuan (about 144.2 billion U.S. dollars).

That would make China the second largest military spender in the world following the U.S., whose defense budget amounted to 600.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2013.

Nonetheless, the 10.1-percent rise represented the lowest expansion in China since 2010, when the defense budget was set to grow by 7.5 percent.

The figure has thereon been riding on a multi-year run of double-digit increases, expanding 12.2 percent last year.

Thursday’s budget report did not explain the rationale behind this year’s abated growth, but a government work report to be presented by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang may offer some clues.

According to the report, national defense development would be coordinated with the country’s economic growth.

The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, registering the weakest annual expansion in more than two decades. The government set this year’s growth target to approximately 7 percent, brewing new concerns that the world’s economic powerhouse is losing steam.

But the report played down such concerns, stressing that China is now in a “new normal” state, where a balance ought to be stricken between growth and structural optimization.

via China 2015 defense budget to grow 10.1 pct, lowest in 5 years – Xinhua | English.news.cn.

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