Stephen Sestanovich, a professor at Columbia University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is the author of “Maximalist: America in the World From Truman to Obama.” He is on Twitter: @SSestanovich.
When the Chinese Foreign Ministry expresses “serious concern” about things Donald Trump has said about Taiwan—and a party-controlled newspaper calls him “as ignorant as a child”—it’s clear that Beijing is alarmed. Yet after spending last week in China, I came away struck by the overall complacency of Chinese attitudes toward the president-elect. From officials (and former officials), entrepreneurs, journalists, NGO leaders, and think-tankers, I heard five different reasons for not worrying too much about how Mr. Trump could affect U.S.-China relations.
1. China is powerful.
Sure, a new administration might want to rethink the relationship between Beijing and Washington, but that can’t be the end of the story, I heard. China has so many ways to push back. Soon enough the Americans would come to their senses.
2. The U.S. is constrained.
Standing up to China is expensive, I was reminded. As one former trade official told me, “America may decide it wants to patrol the South China Sea more often, but that costs money.” (I pointed out to people I talked to that Mr. Trump was committed to a big increase in the Pentagon budget—but everyone knows there are a lot of claims on those dollars, and many would have no impact on China.)
3. Businessmen are practical people.
China’s economic surge, now more than three decades old, was premised on an abandonment of ideology. As a successful businessman, Mr. Trump—I was told—must be a pragmatist at heart. One journalist I talked to thought it might help the president-elect to cultivate a Nixon-style “mad man” reputation, but most of my interlocutors seemed confident this was all for show.
4. Bureaucratic and interest-group politics.
The Chinese have seen previous presidents campaign on anti-Chinese themes only to abandon them in office. Why, they ask, does this happen? Their answer: the institutions of the U.S. government know how to bury new ideas. Someone like Mr. Trump, with no prior experience in Washington, will find it difficult to ignore Congress and the federal bureaucracy.
5. Habit and mutual benefit.
Chinese of all outlooks believe that, in the 45 years since Henry Kissinger first visited Beijing, a relationship has been created from which both sides derive obvious benefits. “Win-win” seems to be a favorite buzz phrase in China, and the idea that it would be questioned evokes a certain incredulity.The status quo has a powerful hold on people’s imaginations everywhere. Still, the Chinese assumption of policy continuity—after everything that has happened this year!—was a surprise for me. I told the people I spoke to that Mr. Trump had convinced many voters that he is determined to scrap outmoded policies. One person, who knows the U.S. well, had an interesting response: “You mean ‘win-win’ could be one of them?”
Source: Trump and China: 5 Views From Beijing – China Real Time Report – WSJ
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