Posts tagged ‘Senkaku Islands’

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20/10/2013

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years – StratRisks

We can only hope that the article below is a worst-case scenario that will not actually happen.

From: http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/15914

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See Maria Hsia Chang,Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.

Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

  • the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (ChinaNews.com).
  • The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (必), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why  the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.

PLAN

THE SIX WARS [SURE] TO BE FOUGHT BY CHINA IN THE COMING 50 YEARS

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

THE 1ST WAR: UNIFICATION OF TAIWAN (YEAR 2020 TO 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

…

THE 2ND WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SPRATLY ISLANDS (YEAR 2025 TO 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.

…

THE 3RD WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF SOUTHERN TIBET (YEAR 2035 TO 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

…

THE 4TH WAR: “RECONQUEST” OF DIAOYU ISLAND [SENKAKU] AND RYUKYU ISLANDS (YEAR 2040 TO 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.

…

THE 5TH WAR: UNIFICATION OF OUTER MONGOLIA (YEAR 2045 TO 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

…

THE 6TH WAR: TAKING BACK OF LANDS LOST TO RUSSIA (YEAR 2055 TO 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.

…

Posted in China alert, Defence, Ethnic clash, Foreign invasion, GeoPolitics, History, Military, Neighbour conflict, PLA, Politics, Taiwan, Territorial dispute, war | 2 Comments »

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25/08/2013

Japan tourist visits to Beijing halved amid tensions over islands row

SCMP: The number of Japanese tourists visiting Beijing fell by more than half in the first seven months of the year amid a spike in tensions between the countries, the city’s statistical bureau said Sunday.

tourism.jpg

Japanese tourist arrivals this year fell to 136,000 up to the end of July, down 53.7 per cent from the same period last year, the bureau said.

The drop follows violent anti-Japanese protests in Beijing and several other Chinese cities in September in response to complaints from the government over Japan’s move to nationalise uninhabited East China Sea islands claimed by China.

Japanese businesses were torched and Japanese-brand cars, most of which are made by Chinese joint venture firms, were smashed and their drivers assaulted.

There were also scattered reports of assaults on Japanese citizens, although none of the attacks were serious.

Tensions remain high between the sides, with their ships conducting regular patrols in waters surrounding the islands, called the Senkakus by Japan and Diaoyu by China. Taiwan also claims the islands and has negotiated an agreement with Tokyo to permit fishing in the area.

The decline in Japanese visitors was part of an overall 13.9 per cent decline in tourist arrivals blamed on the sluggish global economy, as well as a spike in Beijing’s notoriously bad air pollution.

Numbers of tourists from Asian countries fell 25.4 per cent, including a 19.9 per cent fall in visitors from South Korea. Visitors from the Americas fell by just 3.4 per cent.

via Japan tourist visits to Beijing halved amid tensions over islands row | South China Morning Post.

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03/06/2013

China not disputing Japan sovereignty over Okinawa

Reuters: “China does not dispute Japanese sovereignty over Okinawa and recent comments in Chinese newspapers merely reflects the views of some academics, a senior Chinese military leader said on Sunday.

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, adjusts his headset before speaking at the fourth plenary session of the 12th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore June 2, 2013. REUTERS/Edgar Su

“China’s position has not changed… Scholars can put forth any idea they want and they do not represent the views of the Chinese government,” the deputy chief of general staff of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, told delegates at a security conference in Singapore.

China’s state-owned People’s Daily last month published an article by two academics that said Okinawa was part of an island chain that used to be a vassal of imperial Chinese dynasties before it was annexed by Japan in the 19th century, implicitly asserting Chinese claims over the island.

Okinawa, host to the bulk of up to 50,000 U.S. military personnel in Japan, is the largest island in the Ryukyu chain, which extends south towards Taiwan.

China is already involved in a tense dispute with Japan over the latter’s move last year to nationalise the nearby Senkaku islets, which the Chinese call Diaoyu, which sits astride key shipping lanes and undersea energy resources.

That row has escalated in recent months to the point where both sides have scrambled fighter jets while patrol ships shadow each other in nearby seas, raising worry that an unintended collision or other incident could lead to a broader clash.”

via China not disputing Japan sovereignty over Okinawa | Reuters.

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12/05/2013

* China’s Evolving ‘Core Interests’

NY Times: “Whenever China wants to identify the issues considered important enough to go to war over, it uses the term “core interests.” The phrase was once restricted to Taiwan, the island nation that China has threatened to forcibly unify with the mainland. About five years ago, Chinese leaders expanded the term to include Tibet and Xinjiang, two provinces with indigenous autonomy movements that Beijing has worked feverishly to control.

An image of the Chinese flag and sailors standing on Spratly Islands is displayed on a big screen in Tiananmen Square, March 2, 2013.

Since then, Chinese officials have spoken more broadly about economic growth, territorial integrity and preserving the Communist system. But recently they narrowed their sights again, extending the term explicitly to the East China Sea, where Beijing and Tokyo are dangerously squabbling over some uninhabited islands. Top Chinese military officials first delivered the message to Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, when he visited Beijing last month. The next day, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, told reporters that “the Diaoyu Islands are about sovereignty and territorial integrity. Of course it’s China’s core interest.”

This wording, with its threatening implications, is raising new tensions in a region already on edge over North Korea and several other maritime disputes, and it will make it harder to peacefully resolve the dispute over the islands, called Diaoyu in China, and Senkaku in Japan.

While Japan has held the islands for more than a century, China also claims title and has sent armed ships and planes from civilian maritime agencies to assert a presence around them. The waters adjacent to the islands are believed to hold oil and gas deposits.

To some extent, China is simply throwing its weight around, challenging the United States and its regional allies. On Wednesday and Thursday, Chinese state-run newspapers carried commentaries questioning Japan’s sovereignty over the island of Okinawa, where about 25,000 American troops are based. Japan, whose wartime aggression against China and other countries still engenders animosity, has not helped. Last September, the government of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda provocatively bought three of the islands from their private owner.”

via China’s Evolving ‘Core Interests’ – NYTimes.com.

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09/05/2013

* China mouthpiece claims rights over Okinawa

This is most confusing. On the one hand China is proclaiming loud and clear that it will work with its neighbours and ASEAN nations to defuse conflicting territorial claims and to foster peace. Yet, on the other hand, pronouncements such as this works in the opposite direction.  There must be something in Sun Tzu’s writings that will help to clarify this.  Do any of my READERs know?

Bangkok Post: “The lengthy article in the People’s Daily, China’s most-circulated newspaper and the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist party, argued that China may have rights to the Ryukyu island chain, which includes Okinawa.

“Unresolved problems relating to the Ryukyu Islands have reached the time for reconsideration,” wrote Zhang Haipeng and Li Guoqiang, citing post World War II declarations which require Japan to return Chinese territory.

The authors are scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, considered China’s top state-run think tank.

The article also repeated Chinese government arguments for China’s historical claims over a set of tiny uninhabited islets in the East China Sea known as Diaoyu in Chinese and Senkaku in Japanese.

The two nations have stepped up a war of words over the dispute in recent months, with Beijing’s vessels regularly entering the waters around the Tokyo-controlled islands, stoking fears of armed conflict.

Okinawa is the biggest of the Ryukyu islands, which stretch for about 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from Japan’s mainland, and was the centre of the Ryukyuan kingdom which paid tribute to Chinese emperors until it was absorbed by Japan in 1879.

The island is home to major US air force and marine bases as well as 1.3 million people, who are considered more closely related to Japan in ethnic and linguistic terms than to China.

But some Chinese see historical ties as a basis for sovereignty and dismiss Japan’s possession of the islands as a legacy of its aggressive expansionism that ended in defeat at the end of the Second World War.

China’s government does not make such claims, but state media have from time to time carried articles and commentaries questioning Japan’s authority.”

via China mouthpiece claims rights over Okinawa | Bangkok Post: breakingnews.

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13/02/2013

* The Economic Impact of a War Between Japan & China

From: http://www.onlinemba.com/blog/economic-war-between-china-japan

“Global economists are keeping their eyes glued to the Asia-Pacific region, where a bitter feud is brewing between two of the world’s most powerful nations over a small collectivity of islands in the East China Sea. The Chinese government argues that a treaty signed during the first Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) conferred ownership of the islands to China. Japan has long disputed these claims, and today argues that the islands are integral to its national identity.

English: Japan_China_Peace_Treaty_17_April_1895.

English: Japan_China_Peace_Treaty_17_April_1895. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7SA3p8ys-s&feature=youtu.be 

The argument came to a head last September, when a boycott of Japanese products led Chinese demonstrators to target fellow citizens who owned Japanese cars. Three months later, the situation escalated when when Japanese jets confronted a Chinese plane flying over the islands; no shots were fired, but the act of antagonism has set a troubling precedent between the military forces of both nations.

The conflict between China and Japan has put the United States in a precarious position: if a full-scale war were to erupt, the U.S. would be forced to choose between a long-time ally (Japan) and its largest economic lender (China). Last year, China’s holdings in U.S. securities reached $1.73 trillion and goods exported from the U.S. to China exceeded $100 billion. The two countries also share strong economic ties due to the large number of American companies that outsource jobs to China.

However, the U.S. government may be legally obligated to defend Japan. In November, the U.S. Senate added an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that officially recognizes Japan’s claims to the disputed islands; the U.S. and Japan are also committed to a mutual defense treaty that requires either country to step in and defend the other when international disputes occur. Not honoring this treaty could very easily tarnish America’s diplomatic image.

The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are collectively responsible for 55 percent of the global GDP and 44 percent of the world’s trade. A major conflict between the region’s two largest economies would not only impose a harsh dilemma on U.S. diplomats, but also have a significant impact on the entire global economy. It is in every nation’s best interest that the Chinese and Japanese settle their territorial dispute peacefully.”

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2013/01/25/china-japan-move-to-cool-down-territorial-dispute/

Posted in China alert, Economics, GeoPolitics, Military, Politics, Territorial dispute | 1 Comment »

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25/01/2013

* U.N. to consider validity of China’s claim over disputed islands

Strange that a few days ago China objected to the Philippines taking their disputed islands to the UN, but now it is taking a similar action over islands in dispute with Japan.

Reuters: “The United Nations is planning to consider later this year the scientific validity of a claim by China that a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea are part of its territory, although Japan says the world body should not be involved.

A handout photograph taken on a marine surveillance plane B-3837 shows the disputed islets, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, December 13, 2012. Picture taken December 13, 2012. REUTERS/State Oceanic Administration of People's Republic of China/Handout

Tensions over the uninhabited islands – located near rich fishing grounds and potentially huge oil and gas reserves – flared after Japan’s government purchased them from a private Japanese owner in September, sparking violent anti-Japanese protests across China and a military standoff.

Taiwan also claims the islands, known as the Diaoyu islands in China, the Senkaku islands in Japan and Tiaoyutai in Taiwan.

It was not immediately clear if the U.N. involvement would increase the likelihood the China-Japan dispute would be resolved peacefully. But launching an international legal process that should yield a neutral scientific opinion could reduce the temperature for now in Beijing’s spat with Tokyo.

In a submission to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, China says the continental shelf in the East China Sea is a natural prolongation of China’s land territory and that it includes the disputed islands.

Under the U.N. convention, a country can extend its 200-nautical-mile economic zone if it can prove that the continental shelf is a natural extension of its land mass. The U.N. commission assesses the scientific validity of claims, but any disputes have to be resolved between states, not by the commission.

China said the “Diaoyu Dao upfold zone” – the islands – is located between the East China Sea shelf basin and the Okinawa Trough. “The Okinawa Trough is the natural termination of the continental shelf of (the East China Sea),” it said.

China also told the commission that it was still negotiating with other states on the delimitation of the continental shelf.

“Recommendations of the commission with regard to the submission will not prejudice future delimitation of the continental shelf between China and the states concerned,” said the executive summary of China’s submission published on the commission’s website.”

via U.N. to consider validity of China’s claim over disputed islands | Reuters.

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17/01/2013

* U.S., Japan review defense guidelines amid tension with China

We hope that this revision does not fall onto the ‘Law of Unintended Consequences‘ and exacerbates rather than alleviates the current high tensions.

Reuters: “The United States and Japan began on Thursday the revision of defense cooperation guidelines for the first time in 15 years as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces a territorial dispute with China and North Korea’s missile and nuclear programmes.

Shinzo Abe

The revision to the guidelines, which set rules on how Japanese and U.S. forces work together in or near Japan, comes after a hawkish Abe led his Liberal Democratic Party to power in an election last month.

“We would like to discuss Japanese Self Defence Forces‘ role and U.S. forces role with eyes on the next five, 10, 15 years and on the security environment during those periods,” a Defence Ministry official told reporters, without elaborating.

The revision is due because of drastic changes in the security environment over the past 15 years including China’s maritime expansion and North Korea’s missile development, the Japanese government has said.

North Korea has also twice tested nuclear devices.

Japan is locked in a territorial dispute with China over a group of tiny East China Sea islets called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, with both countries sending patrol ships and planes to areas near the isles.

The review started with a working-level meeting in Tokyo between U.S. and Japanese officials. It will likely take a year or more to complete and coincides with a U.S. “pivot” in diplomatic and security focus to Asia.

“One issue that’s prevalent is whether the Abe government will reinterpret the constitution to exercise the right of collective self defence,” said Nicholas Szechenyi, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Should that policy decision be taken, it will obviously have an impact on the way the Self Defence Forces and U.S. military coordinate.”

Japan recognizes it has what is known as the right of collective self-defence, meaning a right to defend with force allies under attack even when Japan itself is not being attacked.

But Japanese governments have traditionally interpreted the pacifist constitution as banning the actual exercise of the right, creating a sore spot in Tokyo’s security ties with Washington. Abe wants to change the interpretation to allow Japan to exercise the right.

via U.S., Japan review defense guidelines amid tension with China | Reuters.

See also: https://chindia-alert.org/2012/08/12/beijing-reasserts-its-claims-in-south-china-sea-nytimes-com/

Posted in China alert, Defence, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, History, Military, Neighbour conflict, Politics, Territorial dispute | Leave a Comment »

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15/09/2012

* Thousands protest against Japan’s ‘island purchase’

China Daily: “Protests against Japanese government’s move to “purchase” and “nationalize” the Diaoyu Islands continued outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing on Friday.

Plain-clothes police officers instruct demonstrators to move during a protest outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing September 14, 2012. REUTERS-David Gray

Protesters started to gather in front of the embassy compound in the morning. By 6 pm, more than 5,000 people including wheel-chaired elderly and kids had taken part in the protests.

Police told the protesters in advance to be rational in their protests.

Also on Friday, about 100 people protested against Japan in Tengchong, a city in the southwestern province of Yunnan, while attending a public memorial for soldiers killed during the anti-Japanese war in the 1940s.

The protestors waved China’s national flags and shouted slogans including “Do not forget national humiliation, safeguard sovereignty, and Diaoyu Islands are China’s territory.”

During the anti-Japanese war, Japanese forces occupied Tengchong for two years and committed appalling crimes there.

via Thousands protest against Japan’s ‘island purchase’ |Politics |chinadaily.com.cn.

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