Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
But trade with partner countries might not be as badly affected as with countries elsewhere in the world, observers say
China’s trade with belt and road countries rose by 3.2 per cent in the January-March period, but second-quarter results will depend on how well they manage to contain the pathogen, academic says
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
The coronavirus pandemic is set to cause a slump in Chinese investment in its signature
and a dip in trade with partner countries that could take a year to overcome, analysts say.
But the impact of the health crisis on China’s economic relations with nations involved in the ambitious infrastructure development programme might not be as great as on those that are not.
China’s total foreign trade in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 6.4 per cent year on year, according to official figures from Beijing.
Trade with the United States, Europe and Japan all dropped in the period, by 18.3, 10.4 and 8.1 per cent, respectively, the commerce ministry said.
By comparison, China’s trade with belt and road countries increased by 3.2 per cent in the first quarter, although the growth figure was lower than the 10.8 per cent reported for the whole of 2019.
China’s trade with 56 belt and road countries – located across Africa, Asia, Europe and South America – accounts for about 30 per cent of its total annual volume, according to the commerce ministry.
Despite the first-quarter growth, Tong Jiadong, a professor of international trade at Nankai University in Tianjin, said he expected China’s trade with belt and road countries to fall by between 2 and 5 per cent this year.
His predictions are less gloomy than the 13 to 32 per cent contraction in global trade forecast for this year by the World Trade Organisation.
“A drop in [China’s total] first-quarter trade was inevitable but it slowly started to recover as it resumed production, especially with Southeast Asian, Eastern European and Arab countries,” Tong said.
“The second quarter will really depend on how the epidemic is contained in belt and road countries.”
Nick Marro, Hong Kong-based head of global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said he expected China’s total overseas direct investment to fall by about 30 per cent this year, which would be bad news for the belt and road plan.
“This will derive from a combination of growing domestic stress in China, enhanced regulatory scrutiny over Chinese investment in major international markets, and weakened global economic prospects that will naturally depress investment demand,” he said.
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed, while infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the Payra coal-fired power plant, have been put on hold.
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
Marro said the reduction of capital and labour from China might complicate other projects for key belt and road partner, like Pakistan, which is home to infrastructure projects worth tens of billions of US dollars, and funded and built in large part by China.
“Pakistan looks concerning, particularly in terms of how we’ve assessed its sovereign and currency risk,” Marro said.
“Public debt is high compared to other emerging markets, while the coronavirus will push the budget deficit to expand to 10 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] this year.”
Last week, Pakistan asked China for a 10-year extension to the repayment period on US$30 billion worth of loans used to fund the development of infrastructure projects, according to a report by local newspaper Dawn.
China’s overseas investment has been falling steadily from its peak in 2016, mostly as a result of Beijing’s curbs on capital outflows.
Last year, the direct investment by Chinese companies and organisations other than banks in belt and road countries fell 3.8 per cent from 2018 to US$15 billion, with most of the money going to South and Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan.
Tong said the pandemic had made Chinese investors nervous about putting their money in countries where disease control measures were becoming increasingly stringent, but added that the pause in activity would give all parties time to regroup.
“Investment in the second quarter will decline and allow time for the questions to be answered,” he said.
“Past experience along the belt and road has taught many lessons to both China and its partners, and forced them to think calmly about their own interests. The epidemic provides both parties with a good time for this.”
Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten, a senior research fellow at Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, said China’s post-pandemic strategy for the belt and road in Europe
might include a shift away from investing in high-profile infrastructure projects like ports and airports.
Investors might instead cooperate with transport and logistics providers rather than invest directly, he said.
“Even though in the coming years the amount of money China loans and invests abroad may be lower than in the peak years around 2015-16, I expect it to maintain the belt and road plan as its overall strategic framework for its foreign economic relations,” he said.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption An empty stretch of the road and Delhi Police barricades to screen commuters during lockdown, at Delhi Gate on April 16, 2020 in New Delhi, India.
India has eased some restrictions imposed as part of a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Most of the new measures are targeted at easing pressure on farming, which employs more than half the nation’s workforce.
Allowing farms to operate again has been seen as essential to avoid food shortages.
But some other measures announced last week, will not be implemented.
This includes the delivery of non-essential items such as mobile phones, computers, and refrigerators by e-commerce firms – the government reversed its decision on that on Sunday.
And none of the restrictions will be lifted in areas that are still considered “hotspots” for the virus – this includes all major Indian cities.
Domestic and international flights and inter-state travel will also remain suspended.
So what restrictions are being eased?
Most of the new measures target agricultural businesses – farming, fisheries and plantations. This will allow crops to be harvested and daily-wagers and others working in these sectors to continue earning.
To restore the supply chain in these industries, cargo trucks will also be allowed to operate across state borders to transport produce from villages to the cities.
Essential public works programmes – such as building roads and water lines in rural areas – will also reopen, but under strict instructions to follow social distancing norms. These are a huge source of employment for hundreds of thousands of daily-wage earners, and farmers looking to supplement their income.
Banks, ATMs, hospitals, clinics, pharmacies and government offices will remain open. And the self-employed – such as plumbers, electricians and carpenters – will also be allowed to work.
Some public and even private workplaces have been permitted to open in areas that are not considered hotspots.
But all businesses and services that reopen are expected to follow social distancing norms.
Who decides what to reopen?
State governments will decide where restrictions can be eased. And several state chief ministers, including Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, have said that none of the restrictions will be lifted in their regions.
Mr Kejriwal said the situation in the national capital was still serious and the decision would be reviewed after one week.
India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, will also see all restrictions in place, as will the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
The southern state of Kerala, which has been widely acknowledged for its success in dealing with the virus, has announced a significant easing of the lockdown in areas that it has demarcated as “green” zones.
This includes allowing private vehicular movement and dine-in services at restaurants, with social distancing norms in place. However, it’s implementing what is known as an “odd-even” scheme – private cars with even and odd number plates will be allowed only on alternate days, to limit the number of people on the road.
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
A farmer works in a field in Fanjiatai Village of Difang Town, Pingyi County, Linyi City, east China’s Shandong Province, April 18, 2020. The upcoming Guyu, literally meaning “Rain of Millet”, is the sixth of the 24 solar terms created by ancient Chinese to carry out agricultural activities. For the year 2020, the day of Guyu falls on April 19. (Photo by Wu Jiquan/Xinhua)
Young people starting out in the jobs market face a hit to their prospects that could endure years after the Covid-19-induced downturn has run its course
A generation of angry youth raises the spectre of political instability
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein had grown used to jam-packed production schedules requiring her to put in long hours and run on little sleep. Until Covid-19 struck.
Today, the talented Indonesian is suddenly free. With five projects on hold and many more potentially cancelled, she now spends her time working on a personal project, doing research for her work and occasionally going for a ride on a bicycle.
“I feel calm and patient although I’m jobless. Maybe because it’s still the third week [of social distancing] and I still have enough savings from my previous work,” said the 26-year-old, who is from Yogyakarta. “But I imagine life will become tougher in the next few months if the situation gets worse.”
Like her, millions of youths are now part of a job market in Southeast Asia that has been ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic. They are the unlucky cohort of 2020 whose fortunes have changed so drastically, so quickly.
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein now spends most of her time at home as her projects have all been frozen due to the spread of Covid-19. Photo: Anita Reza Zein
Just three months ago, many eager graduates were about to partake in a strong economy and possibly land decent pay cheques.
Today, job offers are being withdrawn and hiring halted, leading to a spike in regional youth unemployment in the short term. In the long term, the effects on the Covid-19 cohort could lead to wider social and political problems.
JOB MARKETS SHUT
The virus’ impact on economies and the job market in the region has been swift and devastating. Borders have been slammed shut, workers ordered to stay at home, and thousands of companies closed every week.
The biggest problem is the lack of certainty about how long this will last – the longer the governments keep their countries on lockdown, the worse the economic impact.
In Indonesia, for example, the virus has caused almost 2.8 million people to lose their jobs, according to the Manpower Ministry and the Workers Social Security Agency. Likewise, in Malaysia, an estimated 2.4 million people are expected to lose their jobs, going by data from the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).
is bracing itself for a 5.3 per cent contraction in GDP for the full year, the worst since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
“We think about seven million jobs have been lost already, and the figure will hit 10 million if the outbreak drags on for two to three more months,” said Kalin Sarasin, council member and head of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Lockdown for 34 million people in capital Jakarta as Indonesia fights surge in coronavirus deaths
For young jobseekers, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic could hurt even more, with companies unwilling to open up new jobs for them.
“My clients who were open to fresh graduates previously have realigned searches [for candidates] who have at least one year of experience, as it’s a lot faster for someone with experience to scale up quickly and contribute,” said Joanne Pek, a recruiter at Cornerstone Global Partners’ Singapore office.
For many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) such as Singapore-based restaurant chain The Soup Spoon, saving jobs – rather than recruiting – is the priority.
“We don’t want to let anyone go during this period, so we’re focused on protecting jobs,” said co-founder and director Benedict Leow, who employs some 250 workers.
THE COVID-19 COHORT
The looming economic downturn could have distinct consequences for the Class of 2020 that will outlast the economic downturn itself.
For one thing, the paucity of jobs could result in the Covid-19 cohort becoming a “lost generation” of sorts, said Achim Schmillen, a senior economist at the World Bank Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice.
“Research from around the globe shows that graduating in a recession can have significant and long-lasting impacts that can affect the entire career. In particular, it can lead to large initial earnings losses which only slowly recede over time,” he said.
Coronavirus: why there’s no quick fix for a Covid-19 vaccine
12 Apr 2020
Economics professor Jeff Borland of the University of Melbourne said that international studies showed that what happened to people when they first entered the labour market would affect them for the rest of their working lives.
“Many international studies have shown that trying to move into employment during a major economic downturn cuts the probability of employment and future earnings for a decade or more.
“Why this occurs is less well-established. Reasons suggested include being forced to take lower-quality jobs, losing skills and losing psychological well-being,” he said in a piece published on The Conversation website.
Malaysia sets up Covid-19 test zones in the capital to hunt for ‘hidden’ coronavirus cases
This could create “lasting scarring” on the graduates this year, said labour economist Walter Theseira.
“If their careers start badly, it would affect their earnings for a number of years because they would lack the same experience as peers who started in a more secure position,” the associate professor of economics at Singapore University of Social Sciences said.
Shrinking salaries and the downsizing of companies mean that graduates might have to seek out professions outside their areas of study to survive, said Grace Lee Hooi Yean, head of the Economics Department at Monash University, Malaysia.
She said youth unemployment in the country, which stands at 11.67 per cent, could rise sharply.
“This looming crisis could trap a generation of educated and capable youth in a limbo of unmet expectations and lasting vulnerability if the graduates are not ready to face reality and adapt to the new challenges,” she said.
How long will a coronavirus vaccine take? A Q&A with Jerome Kim
12 Apr 2020
This is fast becoming the reality for final-year medical student Rebecca K. Somasundaram, who has been left without a job due to the pandemic.
After being offered a residency programme at a top specialist hospital in Kuala Lumpur, she was notified a month ago that her placement had been made void until further notice. This has thrown the 24-year-old’s plans into disarray as she was hoping to enter the workforce soon to pay off her student debts. Her plans to get married next year have also been put on hold temporarily.
“I am in constant talks with the hospital to see if there is any way I can join them soon but seeing how things are unfolding so quickly, I am slowly losing hope,” she said.
Over in Indonesia, the pandemic will trigger job losses on a national scale. To combat this, the government would need to introduce strong fiscal measures and beef up its social protection policies, said the country’s former minister of finance Muhamad Chatib Basri.
Many people on lower incomes tend to work in the extraction industry, such as mining and palm oil, and these are the first industries hit due to the global slowdown.
“The rich will be able to brave the storm, but the poor have no means to do so,” he said.
Singapore migrant workers under quarantine as coronavirus hits dormitories
SPECTRE OF 1997
With partial lockdowns imposed in the capital of Jakarta, more needs to be done to ensure that vulnerable citizens have access to food and financial support.
Without government intervention, economic woes could soon translate into political instability, a scenario last seen in the Asian financial crisis.
In 1997, waves of discontent sparked racial riots in Indonesia that toppled the country’s long-time strongman Suharto, while in Thailand a political crisis created the conditions for populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra to rise.
Rising discontent could have serious implications at the ballot boxes, warned Basri, who said young voters were a key voting bloc for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
Coronavirus: food security, Asia’s next battle in a post-Covid world
6 Apr 2020
In last year’s general elections, Jokowi proved a hit among the lower-educated youth who had benefited from the creation of largely unskilled jobs during his tenure.
“With more young people expected to become unemployed in the coming months, things will only get worse from here,” said Basri, who added that the country’s youth unemployment stood at almost 20 per cent in 2018.
Indonesia, which has 268 million people and is Southeast Asia’s largest economy, had 133 million workers as of last August, according to official data.
Close to 10 per cent or about 12.27 million are university graduates but among this group, about 5.67 per cent or some 730,000 were unemployed. This was higher than the country’s overall unemployment rate at that time, which was 5.28 per cent.
‘Ghosts’ deployed to scare Indonesians into staying home to slow spread of the coronavirus
GETTING IT RIGHT
Economists say, however, that all is not lost. Much will depend on policy and how governments focus on battling the virus on the public health and economic fronts. They point to Singapore, which has launched a robust response to the crisis.
On April 6, the Singapore government announced its third budget in two months to help companies and households tide over the crisis. In all, Singapore’s total stimulus package, which aims to save jobs and keep funds flowing to companies, will cost the government a massive S$59.9 billion (US$42 billion).
The Singapore government was also preparing for a labour market that would be reluctant to hire fresh graduates on a full-time basis, said Theseira.
“There are plans to implement large-scale subsidised traineeships, which may be more palatable to companies which are worried about taking on permanent headcount this year,” he noted. “As the economic situation improves, they can be converted to permanent positions.”
The next coronavirus: how a biotech boom is boosting Asian defences
4 Mar 2020
While jobs were being created for fresh graduates, many would still have to temper their expectations, such as taking jobs with lower starting pay, said DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah.
“There are still some jobs to go around. There are still some companies that may need workers. But they will need to be realistic,” he said.
For instance, despite the downturn, Singapore telco Singtel expects to recruit over 300 fresh graduates for various permanent positions this year, according to Aileen Tan, the company’s Group Chief Human Resources Officer. Many of the new hires will be in new growth areas such as the Internet of Things, analytics and cloud.
The Singtel Comcentre building in Singapore. Photo: Roy Issa
Other companies that continue to hire include those in tech across the region, including e-commerce giant Shopee, food-delivery service Foodpanda and Amazon.
In Australia, Borland suggested helping young people to remain plugged into the labour market through government-funded paid internships, or even offering them loans to go for further studies and prevent a spell of unemployment.
For now, while some young jobseekers are taking a wait-and-see approach, the reality is hitting hard for others.
Final-year National University of Singapore student H.P. Tan had all but secured a job at a public relations firm last month, after three rounds of interviews.
The Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences undergraduate was rejected via an email from the agency, which said that they could no longer hire after Covid-19 started to drastically cut business.
“When I got that rejection, it was a turning point. I didn’t think I would be directly impacted,” said the 23-year-old.
“I also applied to a few other agencies but the response has been slow, so I am now freaking out at the possibility of not being able to find a job after graduation.”
Zeng Zhenguo (L), a member of the medical assistance team supporting the virus-hit Wuhan in Hubei Province, hugs his wife after 14-day quarantine at the Xianghu area of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University in Nanchang, east China’s Jiangxi Province, April 15, 2020. The 141 members of the medical assistance team reunited with their families on Wednesday after 14-day quarantine. (Xinhua/Wan Xiang)
Between January 20 and April 4, PM2.5 levels across the country fell by more than 18 per cent, according to the environment ministry
But observers say that as soon as the nation’s factories and roads get back to normal, so too will the air pollution levels
Blue skies were an unexpected upside of locking down cities and halting industrial production across China. Photo: AFP
China’s air quality has improved dramatically in recent weeks as a result of the widespread city lockdowns and strict travel restrictions introduced to contain the
. But experts say the blue skies could rapidly disappear as factories and roads reopen under a government stimulus plan to breathe new life into a stalled economy.
According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, between January 20 and April 4 the average concentration of PM2.5 – the tiny particles that pose the biggest risk to health – fell by 18.4 per cent from the same period of last year.
Meanwhile, the average number of days with good air quality – determined as when the air pollution index falls below 100 – rose by 7.5 per cent, it said.
Satellite images released by Nasa and the European Space Agency showed a dramatic drop in nitrogen dioxide emissions in major Chinese cities in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year earlier.
According to Nasa, the changes in Wuhan – the central China city at the epicentre of the initial coronavirus outbreak – were particularly striking, while nitrogen dioxide levels across the whole of eastern and central China were 10 to 30 per cent lower than normal.
The region is home to hundreds of factories, supplying everything from steel and car parts to microchips. Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million, was placed under lockdown on January 23, but those restrictions were lifted on Wednesday
.
Air pollution is likely to return to China’s cities once the lockdowns are lifted. Photo: Reuters
Nitrogen dioxide is produced by cars, power plants and other industrial facilities and is thought to exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
The space agency said the decline in air pollution levels coincided with the restrictions imposed on transport and business activities.
That was consistent with official data from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which recorded a 25 per cent fall in road freight volume and a 14 per cent decline in the consumption of oil products between January and February.
Guangzhou cases prompt shutdown in ‘Little Africa’ trading hub
8 Apr 2020
Liu Qian, a senior climate campaigner for Greenpeace based in Beijing, said the restrictions on industry and travel were the primary reasons for the improvement in air quality.
According to official data, in February, the concentrations of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide – a toxic gas that comes mostly from industrial burning of coal and other fossil fuels – all fell, by 27 per cent, 28 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively.
“The causes of air pollution are complicated, but the suspension of industrial activity and a drop in public transport use will have helped to reduce levels,” Liu said.
As the epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted to the United States and
, human and industrial activity in China is gradually picking back up, and so is air pollution.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, measured both by Nasa satellites and official stations in China, started inching back up in the middle of March and had returned to normal levels by the end of the month.
That coincided with the centre’s findings – published on Carbon Brief, a British website on climate change – that coal consumption at power plants and oil refineries across China returned to their normal levels in the fourth week of March.
How the Wuhan experience could help coronavirus battle in US and Europe
10 Apr 2020
Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, a Beijing-based charity, said a stimulus plan to kick-start the economy would have a significant impact on air pollution.
“Once industrial production is fully resumed, so are the emission levels,” he said. “Unless another outbreak happens and triggers another lockdown, which would be terrible, the improvement achieved under the pandemic is unstable and won’t last long.”
After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing launched a 4 trillion yuan (US$567.6 billion) stimulus package that included massive infrastructure investment, but also did huge damage to the environment. In the years that followed, air pollution rose to record highs and sparked a public backlash.
Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s economy was slowing – it grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, its slowest for 29 years – and concerns are now growing that policymakers will go all out to revive it.
“Local governments have been under huge pressure since last year, and there are fears that environmental regulations will be sidelined [in the push to boost economic output],” Ma said.
But Beijing had the opportunity to get it right this time by investing more in green infrastructure projects rather than high-carbon projects, he said.
“A balance between economic development and environmental protection is key to achieving a green recovery, and that is what China needs.”
China was widely expected to announce a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2020 of ‘around 6 per cent’ following 6.1 per cent growth in 2019
Zhang Yansheng, who is an adviser to China’s economic policymakers, says ‘there will definitely be adjustments’
(190305) — BEIJING, March 5, 2019 (Xinhua) — Xi Jinping (C, front), Li Keqiang (3rd R, front), Wang Yang (3rd L, front), Wang Huning (2nd R, front), Zhao Leji (2nd L, front), Han Zheng (1st R, front) and Wang Qishan (1st L, front) attend the opening meeting of the second session of the 13th National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, March 5, 2019. (Xinhua/Li Xueren)
China may revise down its annual economic growth target for 2020 in response to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, but will still not give up the overall target of maintaining economic growth “in a reasonable range”, according to a Chinese government researcher.
The Chinese government has never officially published its goal for 2020, but it is widely expected that the specific gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2020
would be “around 6 per cent”, marking a potential slight slowdown from 6.1 per cent growth in 2019 but enough to achieve Beijing’s grand goal of doubling the size of its economy in 2020 from 2010.
China’s 2020 growth target was originally to be released during Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report at the National People’s Congress, but the March 5 annual parliamentary meeting is set to be postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“There will definitely be adjustments. For the central government, it hasn’t defined what the ‘reasonable range’ should be after the outbreak of coronavirus. People are still watching how the outbreak will develop and influence the economy,” Zhang Yansheng, the chief research fellow at the Beijing-based think tank, the China Centre for
International Economic Exchanges, told the South China Morning Post on Tuesday.
As for the final GDP target figure, we have to be true to facts. The GDP target was not a compulsory requirement but a soft forecast figureZhang Yansheng
“As for the final GDP target figure, we have to be true to facts. The GDP target was not a compulsory requirement but a soft forecast figure – strictly speaking, a forecast figure could be revised three or four times in a year.”
Zhang, though, referenced the fact that 29 of China provincial-level regions, out of a total of 31, had published their 2020 economic growth targets at the Central Economic Work Conference in December.
“The direction and the goals are clear. It’s not the case that people have not known what they should do this year,” added Zhang, who is an adviser to China’s economic policymakers.
has repeatedly said over the last two weeks that China will still strive to achieve its economic and social development goals for 2020 despite the outbreak, which has claimed over 1,800 lives and infected over 70,000 people, and remain on course to build the country into a “comprehensively well-off society”.
China to postpone the year’s biggest political gathering amid coronavirus outbreak
One key aspect of that vision is that China will double the size of its GDP in 2020 from 2010, which would require a minimum 5.6 per cent growth rate in 2020, although Beijing has never clearly defined the full details of the goal.
On Tuesday, Ren Hongbin, vice-chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, said that the annual production goals and reform tasks set earlier in the year for state-owned enterprises would also not change despite the outbreak.
“The impact of the epidemic is temporary and phased, will not change the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy,” he said.
We should neither view 6 per cent as a red line nor take doubling the GDP size as a bottom line Song Xiaowu
Before the country fell into an economic standstill around the extended Lunar New Year holiday as the virus spread from the city of Wuhan, economists and analysts have been engaged in a heated debate over whether China needs to keep its growth rate above 6 per cent in 2020.
Song Xiaowu, former president of the China Society of Economic Reform, a state-backed think tank, said at a forum on Saturday that China’s GDP growth rate could drop to 3 per cent in the first quarter and 5 per cent for the whole of 2020.
“We should neither view 6 per cent as a red line nor take doubling the GDP size as a bottom line,” said Song, in a speech published by the China Development Research Foundation, who organised the forum.
Elderly resident says he can’t recall this happening in his city before, not even during the Cultural Revolution
Outbreak is expected to deal a heavy blow to businesses, especially smaller eateries, with some already forced to close
Like many elderly Chinese in Guangzhou, He Zhijian was shocked when he heard there was a ban on eating in restaurants, as authorities try to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The 73-year-old has spent his entire life in the southern city, where gathering for dim sum is an important weekly family ritual.
“My wife and I … are used to having dim sum, tea and Cantonese dishes at the local restaurants every week. From memory, this [type of ban] has never happened in Guangzhou before – not even during the Cultural Revolution,” He said, referring to the decade of social and political upheaval from 1966, when food was in short supply.
The ban took effect at 9pm on Wednesday and is part of measures to contain the outbreak of the virus, which causes a disease officially known as Covid-19, and is believed to have started in Wuhan in December. The pneumonia-like illness has so far
Residents can still get takeaway meals in Guangzhou, but they have been encouraged to order online and have them delivered. Photo: He Huifeng
Guangzhou is home to more than 15 million people and a busy trading port, and has been known as China’s most open city since the 1600s. For locals, going to restaurants for yum cha, or “drinking tea”, and dining on dim sum is an important part of the city’s history and culture – a tradition that has been carried through many generations.
“Even in the ‘three years of natural disasters’ [from 1959 to 1961, when China was in the grip of a famine] I remember there were still restaurants open,” He said. “I was really shocked [by the ban]. I guess the epidemic situation must be severe, otherwise Guangzhou definitely wouldn’t introduce this measure.”
China’s Hubei province reports huge spike in coronavirus cases, rising 10-fold from previous day
Many people in Guangzhou and across the country went back to work on Monday after an extended Lunar New Year break – another measure to try to stop the virus from spreading – with the government keen for businesses to return to normal operations.
The ban on dining in applies to restaurants, but employees can continue to have meals at their company canteens. And while residents can still get takeaways from restaurants, they have been encouraged to do this online, and have their meals delivered, rather than collecting their orders.
Group gatherings have also been banned in the city, and according to Nanfang Daily, some 126 banquets that would have involved more than 90,000 people have been cancelled by authorities already. The authorities did not say how long the measures would be in place.
Guangzhou is not the only city in Guangdong province to bring in a ban on dining in restaurants – Futian district in Shenzhen, Xiangzhou in Zhuhai, Foshan and Zhongshan have all taken the same step.
Beijingers gradually return to work as China’s fight against deadly coronavirus continues
In Guangzhou, while residents try to adapt, businesses are expecting to take a hit. One of the city’s top hotels said the virus outbreak could have a severe impact on the industry.
“Now we will focus on promoting takeaways for local customers. They can order our meals through apps providing online takeaway ordering services,” said Fion Liang, director of sales and marketing at The Garden Hotel. “As for guests staying in the hotel we will deliver meals to their rooms.”
To work or not to work: the difficult coronavirus question facing China
13 Feb 2020
She said the outbreak did not have a big impact on the hotel’s business in January, because the situation only became severe at the end of the month.
“The impact was definitely much bigger in February. If the epidemic continues to be severe throughout February, the occupancy rate of our rooms will be in the single digits this month,” Liang said. “[Most] hotels in Guangzhou are in the same situation.”
The outbreak is expected to deal a heavy blow to restaurants in the city, especially smaller eateries, and some have already been forced to close. June Zhao, the owner of dumpling restaurant Xi Xi, decided to shut down on Wednesday – the day the eat-in ban was announced.
Prospects had been good for the restaurant – it also sold books and alcohol in the evenings, and its trendy decor drew a young crowd.
“We had just started making money last winter and we were looking forward to earning more over the Lunar New Year holiday. But then the coronavirus came, our turnover fell to several hundred yuan a day, and we lost hope,” she said. “The new ban makes this situation worse – takeaway is not a good choice for dumplings, especially in winter. The losses will continue if we stay open.”
Coronavirus: major cities given power to seize private property
13 Feb 2020
The ban has also interrupted daily routines. Freelance cameraman Cony Yu, 28, usually spends some of his working day at cafes, but that is no longer possible. “[Now] I don’t have a comfortable place to sit aside from my home – even the parks have all been closed,” Yu said.
China disinfects entire cities to fight coronavirus outbreak, some twice a day
In the southern tech hub of Shenzhen, dining in has also been banned in central Futian district. Zhu Hao, a financial analyst based in the district, has been working from home for a week and ordering takeaway food every day. But he has to collect it from the gate at his residential compound, where security staff check the temperature of anyone entering or leaving.
He is losing patience with the restrictions. “I want to eat out. I want beef hotpot, coconut chicken, Korean barbecue and seafood,” he said.
In other Shenzhen districts, many restaurants and shopping centres have been temporarily closed or can only provide takeaway meals – including fast food chains such as McDonald’s and Starbucks.
Other places have strict rules for customers. At a bread shop, customers must register their ID and phone numbers and have their temperatures checked before they can enter. And for now, all hotpot restaurants have been closed.
Rats are quick-thinking, optimistic, and adaptable, which gives them the edge in 2020’s rat race. Read our infographic to see why.
In Chinese culture, rats are used to symbolise wealth and surplus. Traditionally married couples would pray to these rodents hoping some of their reproductive success would rub off on them. Rats are found all over the world and regarded in the Chinese zodiac as being smart and nimble with plenty of vitality and enterprising spirit.
Personality
People born in Rat years are said to share some of these characteristics. Being optimistic and energetic they win over many friends. They are kind but can be poor communicators, which means they can inadvertently seem brash. They are not the reticent people they might seem, and although they are very excitable they can control their high spirits but will fight for their beliefs whatever the circumstances.
Financially they like saving and can be stingy. However, their love for hoarding will sometimes cause them to waste money on unnecessary things.
Rat year elements
Each zodiac sign is associated with one of the five elements, contributing to different personality types.
Independent and imaginative, those born in Rat years thrive as authors, and artists. Attention to fine detail makes Rats ideal for scrupulous work, such as editors. They are also known for their stubborn streak which makes them ideally suited as civil rights activists.
Alert but often lacking courage, Rats are usually discouraged from becoming entrepreneurs or taking on leadership and political positions. Although Rats make good financial decisions, investing with close friends invariably causes money problems, and can ruin friendships.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 