Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India is set to impose a nationwide ban on plastic bags, cups and straws on Oct. 2, officials said, in its most sweeping measure yet to stamp out single-use plastics from cities and villages that rank among the world’s most polluted.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is leading efforts to scrap such plastics by 2022, is set to launch the campaign with a ban on as many as six items on Oct. 2, the birth anniversary of independence leader Mahatma Gandhi, two officials said.
These include plastic bags, cups, plates, small bottles, straws and certain types of sachets, said the officials, who asked not to be identified, in line with government policy.
“The ban will be comprehensive and will cover manufacturing, usage and import of such items,” one official said.
India’s environment and housing ministries, the two main ministries leading the drive, did not respond to emails from Reuters to seek comment.
In an Independence Day speech on Aug. 15, Modi had urged people and government agencies to “take the first big step” on Oct. 2 towards freeing India of single-use plastic.
Concerns are growing worldwide about plastic pollution, with a particular focus on the oceans, where nearly 50% of single-use plastic products end up, killing marine life and entering the human food chain, studies show.
The European Union plans to ban single-use plastic items such as straws, forks, knives and cotton buds by 2021.
China’s commercial hub of Shanghai is gradually reining in use of single-use plastics in catering, and its island province of Hainan has already vowed to completely eliminate single-use plastic by 2025.
India lacks an organized system for management of plastic waste, leading to widespread littering across its towns and cities.
The ban on the first six items of single-use plastics will clip 5% to 10% from India’s annual consumption of about 14 million tonnes of plastic, the first official said.
Penalties for violations of the ban will probably take effect after an initial six-month period to allow people time to adopt alternatives, officials said.
Some Indian states have already outlawed polythene bags.
The federal government also plans tougher environmental standards for plastic products and will insist on the use of recyclable plastic only, the first source said.
It will also ask e-commerce companies to cut back on plastic packaging that makes up nearly 40% of India’s annual plastic consumption, officials say.
Cheap smartphones and a surge in the number of internet users have boosted orders for e-commerce companies, such as Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Walmart Inc’s (WMT.N) Flipkart, which wrap their wares – from books and medicines to cigarettes and cosmetics – in plastic, pushing up consumption.
Image caption Wang Qi has been waiting for months to see his family in India
In 1963, a former Chinese army surveyor crossed into India and was captured weeks after a war between the two countries. Wang Qi was then left in a central Indian town for more than five decades before he was allowed to travel back home to China in 2017.
The BBC reported his story at the time and videos of the emotional family reunion in China were watched by millions.
But now, more than 30 months later, his story has taken an unexpected turn – Mr Wang is stuck in China and unable to return to India.
He has been waiting for more than four months for officials to renew his Indian visa so that he can travel back to India where his children and grandchildren live.
“Why are they doing this? I’ve been fighting for such a long time. How much longer can I fight?” Mr Wang told me over the phone from his home city of Xianyang.
The BBC has emailed the Indian embassy in Beijing and is yet to receive a response.
Born to a farmer family in Shaanxi with four brothers and two sisters, he studied surveying and joined China’s People’s Liberation Army in 1960.
Mr Wang says he was “tasked with building roads for the Chinese army” and was captured when he “strayed erroneously” into Indian territory in January 1963.
Image caption He joined China’s People’s Liberation Army in 1960
“I had gone out of my camp for a stroll but lost my way. I was tired and hungry. I saw a Red Cross vehicle and asked them to help me. They handed me over to the Indian army,” he said.
After he was captured, he spent the next seven years in multiple prisons before he was released by a court order in 1969.
Police took him to Tirodi, a far-flung village in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, where he ended up living for most of his life.
Instead he worked at a flour mill, eventually marrying a local woman and raising a family with her. Neighbours said they lived in “utter poverty”.
It was never clear whether Mr Wang was actually a prisoner of war. But he was denied official Indian documents or citizenship, and he was also denied permission to return to China. Officials told the BBC in 2017 that there were “deficiencies” and a “lack of interest” in the case over the years.
A Chinese passport holder, Mr Wang was reunited with his family in China in 2017. After the BBC reported his story, he received a one-year multiple entry Indian visa.
Media caption Wang Qi did not see his family in China for decades
He kept coming back to India to meet his wife, children and grandchildren who continued to live here.
When Mr Wang first arrived in China, he received a rapturous welcome. Crowds met him with banners reading, “Welcome home, soldier, it’s been a rough journey”.
But according to Mr Wang’s son, Vishnu, his father’s request to local officials to clear his salary for the period of his stay in India, remains unanswered.
Vishnu also adds that it’s unclear if his father still has any claim to ancestral property in China after being away for so many years.
“He was ecstatic to have met his family after decades. He didn’t want anything else.”
In 2017, Mr Wang rushed back to India to take care of his wife, who was hospitalised due to “liver complications”.
“Getting funds for the expensive treatment was very difficult. We tried everywhere, begged for money but didn’t receive any response,” Vishnu says.
She died within a fortnight.
Image caption Mr Wang married an Indian woman and raised a family with her
“My father’s visa was renewed in 2018. He applied again in April 2019 but he is still waiting,” Vishnu adds.
Xianyang and Beijing, where the Indian embassy is located, are more than 1,000 kilometres (621 miles) apart – and travelling between the two cities isn’t easy for Mr Wang, who is nearly 80 years old, Vishnu says.
“My father is fed up. He doesn’t understand why this is taking so long.”
The Chief Economic Adviser, K Subramanian, disagreed with the idea of industry-specific incentives and argued for structural reforms in land and labour markets. Members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic advisory council sound inchoate, resorting to social media and opinion editorials to counter one another.
In essence, the quibble among the members of the economic team of Mr Modi and his government is not about whether India is facing an economic slowdown or not, but about how grave the current economic crisis is.
To put all this in context, it was less than just two years ago, in November 2017, that the global ratings agency Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign ratings – an independent assessment of the creditworthiness of a country – for the first time in 14 years.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionSales of cars and SUVs have slumped to a seven-year low
Justifying the upgrade, Moody’s had then argued that the economy was undergoing dramatic “structural” reforms under Mr Modi.
In the two years since, Moody’s has downgraded its 2019 GDP growth forecast for India thrice – from 7.5% to 7.4% to 6.8% to 6.2%.
The immediate questions that arise now are: is India’s economic condition really that grim and, if yes, how did it deteriorate so rapidly?
To make matters worse, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her first budget recently with some ominous tax proposals that threatened foreign capital flows and dented investor confidence. It sparked criticism and Ms Sitharaman was forced to roll back many of her proposals.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption In 2016, India withdrew 85% of all currency notes from the economy
So, it is indeed true that India is facing a sharp economic downturn and severe loss of business confidence.
The alarm over the economic condition is not merely a reflection of a slowdown in GDP growth but also the poor quality of growth.
Private sector investment, the mainstay of sustainable growth in any economy, is at a 15-year low.
In other words, there is almost no investment in new projects by the private sector. The situation is so bad that many Indian industrialists have complained loudly about the state of the economy, the distrust of the government towards businesses and harassment by tax authorities.
But India’s economic slowdown is neither sudden nor a surprise.
Behind the fawning headlines in the press over the past five years about the robustness of India’s growth was a vulnerable economy, straddled with massive bad loans in the financial sector, disguised further by a macroeconomic bonanza from low global oil prices.
India’s largest import is oil and the fortuitous decline in oil prices between 2014 and 2016 added a full percentage point to headline GDP growth, masking the real problems. Confusing luck with skill, the government was callous about fixing the choked financial system.
Media caption What is really happening with India’s economy?
This move destroyed supply chains and impacted agriculture, construction and manufacturing that together account for three-quarters of all employment in the country.
Before the economy could recover from the currency ban shock, the government enacted a transition to a new indirect taxation system of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017. The GST rollout wasn’t smooth and many small businesses initially struggled to understand it.
Such massive external shocks to the economy, coupled with a reversal in low oil prices, dealt the final blow to the economy. Millions of Indians started to lose their jobs and rural wages remained stagnant. This, in turn, impacted consumption, slowing down the economy sharply.
Not easy
The wobbly state of the economy has also thrown government finances in disarray: tax revenues are much below expectations.
On Monday, the government got a much-needed breather when India’s central bank announced a $24bn (£19bn) one-time payout for the cash-starved government. (This amount is more than the dividend paid by the central bank to the government in all five years of the Congress rule between 2009 and 2014.)
The solutions to the economic crisis are not easy.
Indian industry, fed and fattened with government protection through decades, is once again clamouring for tax cuts and financial incentives.
But it is not clear that such benefits will revive private sector investment and domestic consumption immediately.
For all the hype about the Make in India programme, hailed as the harbinger of the country’s emergence as a manufacturing power, India’s dependence on China for goods has only doubled in the past five years.
India today imports from China the equivalent of 6,000 rupees ($83; £68) worth of goods for every Indian, which has doubled from 3,000 rupees in 2014.
So, India is neither making goods for itself nor for the world.
Image copyright AFPImage caption India’s agrarian crisis is a major stumbling block
Ornamental tax and other fiscal incentives to specific industries are not suddenly going to make Indian manufacturers competitive and stop India’s addiction for affordable Chinese goods. If any, the trade spat between China and the United States only saw countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh benefit and not India.
More currency or trade tariffs are not the solutions either. The central bank has lowered interest rates and there is some push to lowering the cost of capital for industry. But again, Indian industry will invest more only when demand for goods and services increases. And demand will increase only when wages increase, or there is money in the hands of people.
So, the only immediate solution for India seems to be to boost consumption through a stimulus given directly to people, in the classical Keynesian mould.
Of course, such a stimulus should be combined with reforms to boost business morale and confidence.
In sum, India’s economic picture is not pretty.
It is important for India’s political leadership to see this not-so-pretty picture and not hide behind rose tinted glasses. Prime Minister Modi has a unique electoral mandate to embark on bold moves to truly transform the economy and pull India out of the woods.
A recent joint exercise in Tajikistan is the latest example of Beijing’s growing security and economic interests in the former Soviet republic
Analysts say Moscow may not be happy about China’s growing reach in the lawless, mountainous area and will be keeping an eye on the situation
Chinese and Tajik troops completed a joint exercise earlier this month in the mountainous region of Gorno-Badakhshan. Photo: Xinhua
China is increasing its military and economic presence in parts of central Asia that Russia has traditionally considered its sphere of influence – a development some analysts believe could cause concern in Moscow.
While Russia’s influence remains strong in many former Soviet republics, China is steadily building up its military and economic influence in Tajikistan, particularly in the remote, mountainous areas on its western borders where central government authority is weak.
Chinese troops recently concluded a joint drill in eastern Tajikistan involving 1,200 troops from both countries.
The eight-day exercise that finished on August 13 was conducted in the autonomous Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region, a sparsely populated territory in the high Pamir mountains, which borders China’s Xinjiang region and Afghanistan.
China has been increasing its security presence in the strategically sensitive region. Photo: Xinhua
Although this year’s exercise involved fewer troops than the 10,000 involved in a previous drill three years ago, it tested the use of advanced aerial vehicles and ground reconnaissance technology to monitor the area.
The landlocked country is strategically important for China, which is worried that the porous borders will serve as an entry point for drugs and Islamic militants into Xinjiang, where its deradicalisation strategy has led to the detention of a million Muslim minorities in reeducation camps.
It also sits along the trade routes China hopes to develop under the Belt and Road Initiative – Beijing’s flagship plan to expand its global influence through infrastructure, trade and investment – but the area has long been plagued by lawlessness and outbreaks of violence.
The recent exercise tested aerial surveillance techniques. Photo: Xinhua
Artyom Lukin, a professor of international politics at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said Russia was not happy about the deployment of Chinese forces in Tajikistan.
“Russia has traditionally considered Central Asia, including Tajikistan, as its sphere of political-military influence,” he said.
Observers said other Central Asian republics – such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan – are likely to stay within Moscow’s orbit, but China is steadily building closer security ties with Tajikistan.
In February, China’s defence ministry denied that it was building a base and stationing troops in the country, but defended its closer military cooperation with Tajikistan.
The recent training exercise was conducted in an area Russia has long seen as part of its sphere of influence. Photo: Xinhua
China has long-standing security interests in the country and in 2016 it agreed to finance 11 border outposts and a training centre for guards along the Afghan border.
This was part of a deal Beijing made through the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism – which also involves Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan – to strengthen cooperation in combating terrorism and improving security.
China has also overtaken Russia economically, becoming the largest foreign investor in Tajikistan in 2016, accounting for 30 per cent of Tajikistan’s total direct accumulated investments, state news agency Xinhua reported.
Banned Muslim political party blamed for deadly attack on tourists in Tajikistan
China’s direct investment in Tajikistan was worth US$95 million in 2017, according to the latest available figures. China has also grown to become the country’s third largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching around US$1.5 billion in 2018.
A recent opinion piece published by the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik suggested China may be “getting carried away” by its investments in the region.
The article suggested that China’s growing presence in the country could lead to a “partial loss” of Tajikistan’s sovereignty and argued that Beijing may want to take control of the border with Afghanistan.
China also has economic interests to protect. Photo: Xinhua
But Lukin said even though this growing involvement may be an irritant for Russia, the strategic partnership between China and Russia will remain strong.
The two countries remain the key players in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an economic and security alliance that includes the Central Asian republics and India and Pakistan.
Why Chinese investors are struggling to gain a foothold in Tajikistan
Lukin said: “Moscow no doubt understands that in terms of security, Tajikistan’s border, adjacent to China’s Xinjiang and Afghanistan, is truly a vital concern for Beijing.
“The presence of Chinese troops could actually benefit Russia, because it will be China bearing the costs of policing Tajikistan’s mountainous border areas.”
Stephen Blank, a former professor at the US Army War College and a specialist in Eurasian security, said that while Russia has mostly stayed silent about China’s presence in Tajikistan, it was closely watching the situation.
“What happens in the long run depends on how far China goes to extend its military presence in Central Asia. And if it keeps extending, it may well provoke some expression of concern in Russia beyond the silence that has hitherto been the case,” Blank said.
Chinese troops could play an increasing role in policing the area in future. Photo: Xinhua
“[The recent drills] look like conventional war-fighting exercises as much as anti-terrorist operations and suggest that China may have bigger contingencies than anti-terrorism in mind.”
Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia programme at the Institut Montaigne, a French think tank, said both Russia and China share similar concerns about terrorism and drug trafficking in Central Asia.
He said Russia had not objected to the security pact with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan because there are more important strategic priorities in China-Russia relations.
“Overall, Russia’s acceptance of a security role for China in Central Asia shows how Russia realistically adjusts to the changing balance of power with China, and is able to avoid a zero-sum game on issues where parallel efforts by China and Russia can serve Russian security interests,” he said.
SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) – Schools reopened in Indian Kashmir’s main city on Monday but most classrooms were empty as parents kept their children home, fearing unrest over the government’s decision two weeks ago to revoke the region’s autonomy.
Some 190 primary schools were set open in Srinagar as a sign of normalcy returning to Muslim majority Jammu and Kashmir as authorities ease a clampdown aimed at preventing mass protests.
Parents said their children would stay home until cellular networks are restored and they can be in contact with them.
“How can we risk the lives of our children?” said Gulzar Ahmad, a father of two who are enrolled in a school in the city’s Batamallo district where protests have occurred.
“Troops have arrested minor children in the last two weeks and several children were injured in clashes,” he said. “Our children are safe inside their homes. If they go to school who can guarantee their safety?”
Authorities were not immediately available for comment, but have previously denied reports of mass arrests.
Protests began after the Aug. 5 decision by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to withdraw Kashmir’s special status and integrate it fully into India, with equal rights for all Indians to buy property there and compete for government jobs.
Critics said the decision will alienate many Kashmiris and add fuel to a 30-year armed revolt in the Himalayan territory that Pakistan also lays claim to.
On the weekend, residents of Srinagar – the hotbed of the separatist revolt – threw stones and clashed with police. Dozens of people were injured, two senior officials and witnesses said.
Reuters journalists visited two dozen schools in Srinagar on Monday. Some schools were lightly staffed and classrooms deserted. Gates at other schools were locked.
Only one student showed up at Presentation Convent Higher Secondary School, which has an enrolment of 1,000 pupils, and went home, said a school official.
A handful of teachers but no students turned up at the barricaded Burn Hall school in one of the city’s high security zones.
“How can students come to classes in such a volatile situation? The government is turning these little children into cannon fodder,” a teacher said, adding that schools should stay closed until the situation is normal.
CROSS BORDER FIRING
New Delhi’s decision on Kashmir has heightened tensions with its neighbour and rival nuclear power, Pakistan, and triggered cross-border exchanges of fire.
In the latest incident, two civilians were killed in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir by Indian soldiers firing across the disputed border, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said, adding that it had summoned India’s deputy commissioner in Islamabad to protest.
“The ceasefire violations by India are a threat to regional peace and security and may lead to a strategic miscalculation,” the foreign ministry said.
There was no immediate comment from India which has previously accused Pakistan of trying to whip up tensions to draw global attention.
More than 50,000 people have died in the revolt that erupted against Indian rule in Kashmir in 1989. India blames Pakistan for giving material support to the militants and helping them cross into its part of the mountainous region.
Pakistan denies the allegation and says it only gives moral and diplomatic support to the Kashmiri people in their struggle for self determination.
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistan observed a ‘Black Day’ on Thursday to coincide with India’s Independence Day celebrations, in protest at New Delhi’s decision to revoke special status for its portion of the contested Kashmir region.
India’s decision this month, along with a communications blackout and curbs on the movement of those in Indian-administered Kashmir, caused fury in Pakistan, which cut trade and transport links and expelled India’s envoy in retaliation.
Newspapers in Pakistan printed editions with black borders on Thursday and politicians, including Prime Minister Imran Khan, replaced their social media pictures with black squares.
Protests are due to be held across the country, including Azad Kashmir, the wedge of territory in the west of the region that Pakistan controls.
The largely symbolic move comes amid growing frustration in Islamabad at the lack of international response over the Kashmir dispute.
Pakistan was isolated diplomatically and faced “a world in denial” over the situation in Kashmir, Dawn, the country’s most influential English language newspaper, said in an editorial.
The 15-member United Nations Security Council could discuss the dispute as soon as Thursday, but Pakistan says it only has guaranteed support from China, which also claims part of India’s Jammu and Kashmir state.
Permanent security council member Russia said on Wednesday it supported India’s stance that the dispute should be resolved through bilateral means, while the United States has called India’s decision an internal matter for New Delhi.
In his Independence Day speech in the Indian capital, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the decision to remove the special rights of the Muslim-majority region among the bold moves of his second term, following an election victory in May.
“Today every Indian can proudly say ‘One Nation, One Constitution’,” Modi, speaking from the ramparts of the historic Red Fort, said of the decision.
46 countries agree protocol aimed at using mediation instead of legal action
Singapore set to capitalise on the naming of the convention, at Hong Kong’s expense
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong attends the signing ceremony of the Singapore Convention on Mediation. Photo: Handout
China and the United States have briefly put aside their escalating trade war and joined 44 other countries in signing a new global protocol on mediation aimed at settling cross-border trade and commercial disputes.
TheSingapore Convention, under the United Nations framework, will allow mediation agreements to be recognised and enforced in the courts of all 46 signatories, which include South Korea and India. European Union nations are expected to sign in the next phase.
It was agreed against a backdrop of ongoing tensions between China and the US over tariffs and currency manipulation, and a trade dispute between South Korea and Japan
.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong addresses delegates at the Singapore Convention on Mediation event. Photo: Handout
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the protocol demonstrated that countries are capable of achieving consensus through effort and creativity, and are open to binding commitments.
He also observed that the established world order of multilateralism is “under pressure”.
“Existing multilateral institutions are not perfect, many are in need of urgent reform, suffer from a loss of confidence, or have practices and structures that are no longer fit for purpose,” Lee said, without elaborating which bodies he was referring to.
He added that the solution would not be to abandon these bodies, but to improve them through reform and bringing them up to date.
“We must make sure they reflect current economic and political realities, and ready them to deal with the new issues created by the progress of technology and globalisation.”
Stephen Mathias, the UN’s assistant secretary-general for legal affairs, said the agreement helped unify mediation rules and remove uncertainty in enforcing mediation agreements.
Delegates attend the signing ceremony of the Singapore Convention. Photo: Handout
The protocol contains standardised terms to apply mediation agreements across jurisdictions, and is expected to bolster the use of mediation rather than legal action to resolve trade disputes.
This rare example of international cooperation can be likened to the New York Convention on arbitration, which was adopted by the UN 60 years ago and is now applied by 160 countries.
Singapore has also capitalised on the naming of the convention, positioning itself as the legal hub in the region, in competition with Hong Kong.
The UN’s Commission on International Trade Law, for instance, has signed a memorandum to establish an academy in international dispute resolution in Singapore.
Hong Kong or Singapore: who to trust on belt and road disputes?
Mediators in Hong Kong said the convention only served to promote their rival city, as Hong Kong professionals remain competitive in the market.
“Lots of cases with a ‘Chinese element’ would pick Hong Kong,” said lawyer Christopher To Wing. “For instance, a US or British firm runs into a dispute with a Chinese firm, they will choose Hong Kong, as the city is close to China.”
But he conceded that more support and funding from the Hong Kong government is needed to catch up with similar promotion efforts by the Singapore government.
Image copyright AFPImage caption India has deployed tens of thousands of troops to Indian-administered Kashmir in recent days
India’s government has revoked part of the constitution that gives Indian-administered Kashmir special status, in an unprecedented move likely to spark unrest.
Article 370 is sensitive because it is what guarantees significant autonomy for the Muslim-majority state.
There has been a long-running insurgency on the Indian side.
Nuclear powers India and Pakistan have fought two wars and a limited conflict over Kashmir since 1947.
The BBC’s Geeta Pandey in Delhi says that for many Kashmiris, Article 370 was the main justification for being a part of India and by revoking it, the BJP has irrevocably changed Delhi’s relationship with the region.
Pakistan condemned India’s decision to revoke the special status of its part of Kashmir as illegal, saying it would “exercise all possible options” to counter it.
“India is playing a dangerous game which will have serious consequences for regional peace and stability,” said Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
But an Indian government source said there was no external implication as the Line of Control, the de facto border, and boundaries of Kashmir had not been altered.
Why are there tensions over Kashmir?
During the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, some expected Jammu and Kashmir, like other Muslim-majority regions, to go to Pakistan.
But the ruler of the princely state, who had initially wanted Jammu and Kashmir to become independent, joined India in return for help against an invasion of tribesmen from Pakistan.
War broke out between India and Pakistan, and Kashmir effectively became partitioned.
The region, which remains one of the most militarised zones in the world, has been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan for more than six decades.
Atmosphere of fear
By Aamir Peerzada, BBC News, Srinagar
By the time we woke up this morning, the internet was gone and we now have no mobile connectivity.
If people step out of their homes, they see paramilitary forces on every street. Almost every major road is shut – we are hearing that more troops are being deployed.
No-one knows what is happening in other parts of the state – we can’t talk to anyone else.
People are concerned – they don’t know what is happening, they don’t know what is going to happen.
It’s an atmosphere of fear. People are scared to come out, they have stockpiled food for months.
Kashmiris have always been willing to defend the state’s special status. It looks like a long road ahead, and no-one knows what’s next.
What is Article 370?
In 1949, a special provision was added to India’s constitution providing autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir.
Article 370 allows the state to have its own constitution, a separate flag and independence over all matters except foreign affairs, defence and communications.
Another provision later added under Article 370 – 35A – gives special privileges to permanent residents, including state government jobs and the exclusive right to own property in the state.
It is seen as protecting the state’s distinct demographic character as the only Muslim-majority state in India.
So why is India’s move controversial?
The move by the Hindu nationalist BJP government prompted outrage in parliament, and some legal experts have called it an attack on the constitution.
Critics fear the move is designed to change the demographic make-up of India-administered Kashmir – by giving people from the rest of the country to right to acquire property and settle there permanently.
“They just want to occupy our land and want to make this Muslim-majority state like any other state and reduce us to a minority and disempower us totally.”
She added Article 370 was not given to the people of the state as a “gift”, but “a matter of constitutional guarantees given by the very same Indian parliament to the people of Jammu and Kashmir”.
Why is the government doing this?
The ruling BJP made revoking Article 370 part of the party’s 2019 election manifesto – and it won a landslide victory earlier this year.
It has argued that Article 370 has prevented the region’s development and its integration with India.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Supporters of India’s ruling BJP have been celebrating the move
An Indian government source said on Monday that the region’s special status had discouraged outside investment and affected its economy, while terrorism and smuggling were rife.
“A set of anachronistic provisions were not allowing the progress of Kashmir,” the source said. “The huge sum of money and resources which were going into the state were not being optimised.”
How did the government make the change?
India’s government announced a presidential order revoking all of Article 370 apart from one clause which says that the state is an integral part of India.
The order was met by massive protests from the opposition – but has now been signed into law by President Ram Nath Kovind.
The government also proposed dividing the state into two regions ruled by the central government, and a bill to that effect passed the upper house on Monday and will now go to the lower house where the BJP has a majority.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Opponents of the move have also been out in the streets of Delhi
Changing Article 370 also requires the assent of the state government, but Jammu and Kashmir has been under the rule of a governor since June 2018 when the BJP pulled out of a state government coalition with the regional People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
This effectively means the state has been ruled directly by Delhi through a governor, who has agreed to the bills.
What has been happening in Kashmir?
Indian-administered Kashmir is in a state of lockdown.
Curfew-like conditions have been imposed, and orders preventing the assembly of more than four people have been introduced.
Tens of thousands of Indian troops were deployed to the region ahead of Monday’s announcement and tourists were told to leave under warnings of a terror threat.
Media caption In December Yogita Limaye examined why there had been a rise in violence in Kashmir
In the hours before Monday’s announcement, two of the state’s former chief ministers – Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti – were placed under house arrest.
SRINAGAR/NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Indian security officials said on Friday they had found evidence of attacks planned by Pakistani military-backed militants on a major Hindu pilgrimage in the disputed Muslim-dominated region of Kashmir.
Tension has run high in the mountainous region since a vehicle laden with explosives rammed into an Indian police convoy on Feb. 14, killing 40 paramilitary policemen, and leading to aerial clashes between the two nations.
Indian officials said a mine with Pakistan ordinance marking was among caches of ammunition, explosives and weapons retrieved following intelligence reports of likely attacks on routes used by hundreds of thousands of devout Hindus who trek to the region’s holy Amarnath cave every year.
In an order issued on Friday, the government in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir effectively called off the pilgrimage and asked the gathered pilgrims to return home, citing the intelligence reports.
“The Pakistan ordinance factory markings (on the mine)…clearly indicate (the) Pakistan army is involved in terrorism in Kashmir,” Indian military commander Lieutenant-General K.J.S. Dhillon told a news conference in Srinagar.
There was no immediate comment from spokesmen for Pakistan’s military and its foreign ministry.
Muslim-majority Kashmir has been the site of decades of hostility between nuclear arch-rivals India and Pakistan. Both countries claim it in full but rule it in part.
India accuses Pakistan of funding armed militants, along with separatist groups in India’s portion of the region considered non-violent by international observers.
Islamabad denies the Indian accusation, saying it provides only diplomatic and moral support to the separatist movement.
In recent months, Pakistan says it has cracked down on Islamic militant groups, including arresting Hafiz Saeed, the alleged mastermind of the militant attack on India’s financial capital of Mumbai in 2008 that left 166 people dead.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is battling an economic crisis at home, said in April that his country had nothing to gain from allowing armed militants to infiltrate into Indian-controlled Kashmir, and that Pakistan was doing its best to stop such incursions.
Khan is also working on rebuilding Pakistan’s image in Washington after an extended period of acrimony. The United States is relying on Islamabad’s support to seal a deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan that would allow U.S. troops to be pulled out after a protracted war lasting almost 18 years.
U.S. President Donald Trump has twice offered in as many weeks to help mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, a proposal that New Delhi has unequivocally shot down.
PANIC BUYING
Dhillon said security forces in Kashmir, where more than 300 people have died in just the last six months, were still being targeted with improvised explosive devices.
“All these things are an indication that Pakistan and the Pakistani army is desperate to disrupt peace in Kashmir Valley,” he said.
Police had received intelligence reports there could be an increase in militant-led violence, Kashmir police chief Dilbagh Singh told the briefing in the region’s main city of Srinagar.
India has moved an additional 10,000 paramilitary troops into the restive region because of the security situation, training requirements and the need for rotation, a home ministry official said on Friday.
The influx swells an estimated 40,000 troops already in the region to provide security for the Amarnath pilgrimage. The new deployment has caused concern among residents that Indian security forces planned another major crackdown.
They are fearful that a curfew may be imposed, affecting their ability to go out, and supplies coming in. There has been some panic buying at grocery stores in the past week and long queues at petrol stations.
Regional leaders indicated they are worried that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will now try to remove decades-old special rights for the people of the state, including an amendment to the Indian constitution made in 1954 known as Article 35A. That amendment prevents people from outside the state from buying property there.
“Various speculations are rife including removal of 35A to change the demography of the state and its Muslim majority character,” separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq told Reuters.
“As in the past, people and the leadership have to be ready to resist every attempt to undo it,” said Farooq, who is the chairman of Hurriyat, a political movement that wants independence from India.
China suggests good progress made in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership talks after marathon 10-day negotiations in Zhengzhou
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has opted to skip the upcoming high-level meetings, adding fuel to rumours that the country could be removed
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has overtaken the US to become China’s second-largest trading partner in the first half of 2019. Photo: AP
China has claimed “positive progress” towards finalising the world’s largest free-trade agreement by the end of 2019 after hosting 10 days of talks, but insiders have suggested there was “never a chance” of concluding the deal in Zhengzhou.
The 27th round of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations closed on Wednesday in the central Chinese city.
working level conference brought over 700 negotiators from all 16 member countries to Henan province, with China keen to push through a deal which has proven extremely difficult to close.
If finalised, the agreement, which involves the 10 Asean nations, as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, would cover around one-third of the global gross domestic product, about 40 per cent of world trade and almost half the world’s population.
“This round of talks has made positive progress in various fields,” said assistant minister of commerce Li Chenggang, adding that all parties had reaffirmed the goal of concluding the deal this year. “China will work together with the RCEP countries to proactively push forward the negotiation, strive to resolve the remaining issues as soon as possible, and to end the negotiations as soon as possible.”
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (fifth left) poses with foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) countries during the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting in Bangkok. Photo: AFP
China is keen to complete a deal which would offer it a buffer against the United States in Asia, and which would allow it to champion its free trade position, while the US pursues protectionist trade policy.
The RCEP talks took place as Chinese and American trade negotiators resumed face-to-face discussions in Shanghai, which also ended on Wednesday, although there was little sign of similar progress.
As the rivalry between Beijing and Washington has intensified and bilateral trade waned, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) overtook the US to become China’s second-largest trading partner in the first half of 2019. From January to June, the trade volume between China and the 10-member bloc reached US$291.85 billion, up by 4.2 per cent from a year ago, according to government data.
The Asean bloc is made up of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos.
China will work together with the RCEP countries to proactively push forward the negotiation, strive to resolve the remaining issues as soon as possible, and to end the negotiations as soon as possible. Li Chenggang
RCEP talks will now move to a higher level ministerial meeting in Beijing on Friday and Saturday, but trade experts have warned that if material progress is not made, it is likely that the RCEP talks will continue into 2020, prolonging a saga which has already dragged on longer than many expected. It is the first time China has hosted the ministerial level talks.
But complicating matters is the fact that India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal, will not attend the ministerial level talks, with an Indian government official saying that he has to participate in an extended parliamentary session.
India is widely viewed as the biggest roadblock to concluding RCEP, the first negotiations for which were held in May 2013 in Brunei. Delhi has allegedly opposed opening its domestic markets to tariff-free goods and services, particularly from China, and has also had issues with the rules of origin chapter of RCEP.
China is understood to be “egging on” other members to move forward without India, but this could be politically explosive, particularly for smaller Asean nations, a source familiar with talks said.
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based lobby group, said that after the last round of negotiations in Melbourne between June 22 to July 3 – which she attended – there was “frustration” at India’s reluctance to move forward.
She suggested that in India’s absence, ministers in China could decide to move forward through a “pathfinder” agreement, which would remove India, but also potentially Australia and New Zealand.
India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal, will not attend the ministerial level talks this week in Beijing. Photo: Bloomberg
This “Asean-plus three” deal would be designed to encourage India to come on board, Elms said, but would surely not go down well in Australia and New Zealand, which have been two of the agreement’s biggest supporters.
New Zealand has had objections to the investor protections sections of RCEP, and both countries have historically been pushing for a more comprehensive deal than many members are comfortable with, since both already have free trade agreements with many of the other member nations.
However, their exclusion would be due to “an unfortunate geographical problem, which is if you’re going to kick out India, there has always been an Asean-plus three concept to start with”. Therefore it is easier to exclude Australia and New Zealand, rather than India alone, which would politically difficult.
A source close to the negotiating teams described the prospect of being cut out of the deal at this late stage as a “frustrating rumour”, adding that “as far as I know [it] has no real basis other than a scare tactic against India”.
There was “never a chance of concluding [the deal during] this round, but good progress is being made is what I understand. The key issues remain India and China”, said the source, who wished to remain anonymous.
Replacing bilateral cooperation with regional collaborations is a means of resolving the disputesTong Jiadong
However, Tong Jiadong, a professor of international trade at the Nankai University of Tianjin, said Washington’s refusal to recognise India as a developing country at the World Trade Organisation could nudge the world’s second most populous nation closer to signing RCEP.
“That might push India to the RCEP, accelerating the pace of RCEP,” Tong said, adding that ongoing trade tensions between Japan and South Korea could also be soothed by RCEP’s passage.
“Replacing bilateral cooperation with regional collaborations is a means of resolving the disputes between the two countries,” Tong said.
Although the plan was first proposed by the Southeast Asian countries, China has been playing an increasingly active role, first as a response to the now defunct US-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and more recently as a means of containing the impact of the trade war.
China’s vice-commerce Minister, Wang Shouwen, told delegates last week that RCEP was “the most important free trade deal in East Asia”. He called on all participants to “take full advantage of the good momentum and accelerating progress at the moment” to conclude a deal by the end of the year.
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