Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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China will not set an economic growth goal for this year as it deals with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
It is the first time Beijing has not had a gross domestic product (GDP) target since 1990 when records began.
The announcement was made by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of the country’s annual parliament meeting.
The world’s second largest economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter from a year ago as lockdowns paralysed businesses.
“This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment,” Premier Li said.
The country’s leadership has promised to boost economic support measures amid growing concerns that rising unemployment could threaten social stability.
The move comes as tensions between Beijing and Washington are becoming increasingly strained over the coronavirus pandemic, trade and Hong Kong.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump stepped up his attacks on China, suggesting that the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.”
It came as Mr Trump and other Republicans have escalated their criticism of Beijing’s handling of the early stages of the outbreak.
Also on Thursday, China announced plans to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong after last year’s pro-democracy protests.
The announcement was met with a warning from Mr Trump that the US would react “very strongly” against any attempt to gain more control over the former British colony.
Separately, two US senators have proposed legislation to punish Chinese entities involved in enforcing the planned new laws and penalise banks that do business with them.
Earlier this week, the US Senate unanimously passed a proposal to delist Chinese companies from American stock exchanges if they fail to comply with US financial reporting standards.
US-listed Chinese companies have come under increasing scrutiny in recent weeks after Luckin Coffee revealed that an internal investigation found hundreds of millions of dollars of its sales last year were “fabricated”.
Concerns are rising that China is repeating its mistake of a decade ago by pursuing short-term debt-fuelled economic growth at the cost of long-term sustainability
Local governments are stepping up spending on infrastructure projects in a bid to offset the slowdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent lockdowns
Construction of high-speed railways, motorways and airports is an old tactic that Beijing dusted off after the pandemic led to a 6.8 per cent economic contraction in the first quarter. Photo: Xinhua
China’s huge stockpile of local government debt, one of the biggest “grey rhino” risks threatening the Chinese economy’s future, is set to rise steeply as local authorities rush to increase capital spending to help offset the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
As Beijing discusses increasing the central government budget deficit and monetary policy easing to spur economic growth, many local governments see the situation as a golden opportunity to realise their investment ambitions, fanning concerns that China is repeating its mistake of a decade ago by pursuing short-term debt-fuelled economic growth at the cost of long-term sustainability.
In one of the latest investment drives, the southeastern province of Fujian announced on Sunday that it had signed contracts for 391 new projects with a combined investment value of 783.6 billion yuan (US$110.6 billion). Projects undertaken by central government-owned companies, which received significant lending support in the first quarter, accounted for more than half of the promised investment in Fujian, some 92 projects worth 424.5 billion yuan.
The landlocked eastern province of Anhui is also planning 2,583 new projects this year at a cost of 450 billion yuan, a third of which have been created in the last two weeks.
Construction begins for major sea crossing to link Shenzhen and Zhongshan in Greater Bay Area
In addition to work on existing construction projects, costing around 850 billion yuan, the province has also prepared a list of 3,300 reserve projects with a total investment value of 5.4 trillion yuan (US$762 billion) which could theoretically be started at any point in the future, pending government approval and funding support.
“The most powerful and effective way to offset the economic slowdown is to increase the size of investments,” Wang Qikang, an official with the Anhui economic planning office said on Friday. “[We] must quicken the pace of construction, working day and night to win back the lost time [from the coronavirus lockdowns].”
Construction of high-speed railways, motorways and airports is an old tactic that Beijing dusted off after the pandemic led to a 6.8 per cent economic contraction in the first quarter.
Infrastructure construction has already been hit hard amid the lockdowns, plunging 19.7 per cent in the first three months of the year compared to a year earlier.
Many [local governments] are still striving to achieve a high growth rate without the guidance of a national [gross domestic product] target – Liu Xuezhi
“The investment stimulus mindset has hardly been eradicated at the local level,” said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher with the Bank of Communications in Shanghai. “In particular, many [local governments] are still striving to achieve a high growth rate without the guidance of a national [gross domestic product] target.”
Before the start of the coronavirus outbreak, Beijing was thought to be targeting a
of around 6 per cent this year after achieving 6.1 per cent in 2019, although many local governments appear to be setting their own annual targets still using the original expected goal as a guide.
However, that target was never made public because the meeting of the
scheduled for early March, where the growth target would normally have been released, was postponed due to the virus.
The government announced on Wednesday that the NPC will be held from May 22, when a new, likely lower, growth target could be announced.
China’s first-quarter GDP shrinks for the first time since 1976 as coronavirus cripples economy
International rating agency Moody’s warned that greater infrastructure spending would result in higher debt for regional and local governments, increasing their financial risks amid a sharp slowdown in tax revenues.
“Such investments are less likely to be a main support measure [chosen by Beijing] now given the government’s focus on avoiding a rapid increase in leverage and asset price inflation,” Moody’s analysts Michael Taylor and Lilian Li said on Tuesday.
At the end of March, local government debt stood at 22.8 trillion yuan (US$3.2 trillion), according to the Ministry of Finance. But implicit liabilities, which are hidden in local financing vehicles, state firms and public-private partnership projects, are believed to be much larger, with some estimates pointing towards an additional debt of over 30 trillion yuan.
Chinese central bank governor Yi Gang, along with other officials, have already warned against excessive economic stimulus, saying it would add risks to China’s financial system.
A key risk is that local governments are front-loading China’s long-term investment plan, especially in the railway sector, with more than 357 railway projects proposed by local governments.
Shandong province, for example, is preparing to build four new railway lines, including the Shandong portion of a second high-speed railway between Beijing to Shanghai.
“There is still a chance for infrastructure investment growth to hit 10 per cent if the government releases 2 trillion yuan (US$282 billion) in funding through local special purpose bonds and special treasury bonds,” said Haitong Securities’ chief economist Jiang Chao on Monday.
However, a local government debt monitoring report issued on Tuesday by the National Institution of Finance and Development warned that China’s local government fiscal situation is worsening rapidly as expenses surge and revenues drop.
“All levels of local governments in China will face huge debt repayment pressure in five years,” warned Yin Jianfeng, deputy director of the Beijing-based think-tank.
Israeli medical equipment firm IceCure Medical, with an initial US$4 million sales and marketing effort, will open its first Chinese office in Shanghai
English shopping outlet company Value Retail sees the chance to lure consumers who have been under lockdowns aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus
Foreign firms, including Israeli medical equipment maker IceCure Medical and English shopping outlet company Value Retail, still see opportunities in China despite the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Not only has the coronavirus pandemic not watered down one company’s expansion plans for China, it has given it even greater reason to push forward into the Chinese market.
Israeli company IceCure Medical is forging ahead with opening its first Chinese office in Shanghai, with plans to spend up to US$4 million for the initial sales and marketing effort for its non-surgical breast cancer treatments.
Chief executive Eyal Shamir said he has seen an uptick in Chinese interest in the company’s ProSense product, which allows the freezing of tumours outside a hospital environment, because it can free up facilities badly needed for Covid-19 patients.
The government approval of the company’s Chinese subsidiary is now only days away following a successful product console registration, according to Shamir, and it has already sold two units to the Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Centre for a clinical study.
World Health Organisation warns the ‘worst still ahead’ in coronavirus pandemic
“We are planning a full launch of the product in China for both breast cancer and breast benign tumours as well as other organs,” Shamir said.
“Post Covid-19, there will be a backlog of many surgeries and not only for breast cancer patients.”
IceCure Medical, though, is not the only foreign company eyeing expansion into China despite the risk of secondary outbreaks of coronavirus.
West of Shanghai, English shopping outlet company Value Retail is also expanding its retail space, banking on Chinese shoppers re-emerging from lockdowns to begin
After being cooped at home for weeks, people want to be outdoors to enjoy the beautiful spring weather – Value Retail
Value Retail is proceeding with plans to enlarge its Suzhou Village shopping centre from 35,000 square metres (378,000 sq ft) to over 50,000 square metres, while also increasing the number of shops from 120 to 200, which will make it the largest of the 11 venues its controls globally.
It is working closely with the Yang Cheng Lake Peninsula government on a date for construction to start, after seeing a surprising increase in retail sales at its centres in early April. The company’s Chinese subsidiary, Value Retail China, attributed the rise to an increasing number of consumers wanting to “get outside” of their homes after being isolated for several weeks.
Suzhou Village sales have increased 40 per cent each week since the start of April, the company said.
“Thanks to the positive recovery [in spending] over the past several weeks, we are going ahead with the Suzhou Village expansion,” the company said in a statement. “After being cooped at home for weeks, people want to be outdoors to enjoy the beautiful spring weather. We provide a shopping experience for guests in an outdoor environment … the motivation for such an experience after isolation is huge. [Being] outdoors is seen as a luxury now.”
In addition, customers are flocking to both its Suzhou and Shanghai Village centres as a form of domestic tourism because of the curb on overseas travel, Value Retail China said.
Despite the economic destruction that the coronavirus pandemic has caused in China, it also is opening up expansion opportunities for entrepreneurial firms in several industries, such as e-commerce and online delivery, life sciences and infrastructure construction, said EY Asia-Pacific transaction advisory services leader Harsha Basnayake.
However, while businesses within Asia-Pacific expressed a desire for opportunistic expansions, most companies still held a pessimistic view of economic recovery that would drag on into 2021.
American companies already operating in China were even less optimistic with over 70 per cent of businesses surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in March saying they were reluctant about expanding in the coming year.
Although it is too early to say if retail property will rise – particularly when we are seeing new habits forming, going from shopfronts to online and how far this new behaviour will stick. China will gives us lots of lessons on this. – Harsha Basnayake
“We are expecting opportunities in real estate, particularly in commercial property and logistics, and we think industries in life sciences, some parts of health care and infrastructure will be interesting,” Basnayake said.
“Although it is too early to say if retail property will rise – particularly when we are seeing new habits forming, going from shopfronts to online and how far this new behaviour will stick. China will gives us lots of lessons on this.”
The Chinese government’s move to increase infrastructure spending to boost the economy will also benefit certain industries, such as cement production.
Despite suffering a 24 per cent drop in sales in the first quarter due to virus-related delays in construction activities, China’s largest cement manufacturer, Anhui Conch Cement, is likely to move forward with plans to expand in part due to its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, according to analysts at S&P Global.
Though no one would be able to tell exactly what will happen when the Covid-19 uncertainties are not completely gone, signs of recovery in China have brought encouragement to us – Justin Channe
Desires to expand are also not limited to these industries, and even the hard-hit hotel industry is starting to show green shoots.
International hotel chain IHG said that the coronavirus would not derail its new Regent-branded hotel project in Chengdu, which is expected to start construction later this year.
“Though no one would be able to tell exactly what will happen when the Covid-19 uncertainties are not completely gone, signs of recovery in China have brought encouragement to us,” said Regent Hotels & Resorts managing director Justin Channe.
“While we saw business pickup across China over the past Qing Ming Festival holiday, Chengdu and its nearby destinations were among the leading ones. In the long run, we stay confident of the outlook for the China hotel industry, including the luxury segment.”
Analysing how coronavirus broke China’s historic economic growth run
Beyond the crisis, there will be ample opportunities for new merger and acquisitions (M&A) amid business restructures and failures, particularly in China, Basnayake added.
A new EY survey found 52 per cent of Asia-Pacific businesses planned on pursuing M&A in the next year.
“While the crisis is having a severe impact on M&A sentiment, there’s evidence from the survey that M&A activity intentions remain steady in the long term. There are many who recognise this is a time where valuations will be reset, and there will be stressed and distressed acquisition opportunities,” Basnayake said.
“For example, from our interviews with corporations in China, a majority said that Covid-19 has not impacted their M&A strategies, noting that the situation has not led to any cancellations or withdrawals from deals, but only in delays in closing deals.”
China’s economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year, as the virus forced factories and businesses to close.
The world’s second biggest economy contracted 6.8% according to official data released on Friday.
The financial toll the coronavirus is having on the Chinese economy will be a huge concern to other countries.
China is an economic powerhouse as a major consumer and producer of goods and services.
This is the first time China has seen its economy shrink in the first three months of the year since it started recording quarterly figures in 1992.
“The GDP contraction in January-March will translate into permanent income losses, reflected in bankruptcies across small companies and job losses,” said Yue Su at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Last year, China saw healthy economic growth of 6.4% in the first quarter, a period when it was locked in a trade war with the US.
In the last two decades, China has seen average economic growth of around 9% a year, although experts have regularly questioned the accuracy of its economic data.
Its economy had ground to a halt during the first three months of the year as it introduced large-scale shutdowns and quarantines to prevent the virus spread in late January.
As a result, economists had expected bleak figures, but the official data comes in slightly worse than expected.
Among other key figures released in Friday’s report:
Factory output was down 1.1% for March as China slowly starts manufacturing again.
Retail sales plummeted 15.8% last month as many of shoppers stayed at home.
Unemployment hit 5.9% in March, slightly better than February’s all-time high of 6.2%.
Analysis: A 6% expansion wiped out
Robin Brant, BBC News, Shanghai
The huge decline shows the profound impact that the virus outbreak, and the government’s draconian reaction to it, had on the world’s second largest economy. It wipes out the 6% expansion in China’s economy recorded in the last set of figures at the end of last year.
Beijing has signalled a significant economic stimulus is on the way as it tries to stabilise its economy and recover. Earlier this week the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, the People’s Daily, reported it would “expand domestic demand”.
But the slowdown in the rest of the global economy presents a significant problem as exports still play a major role in China’s economy. If it comes this will not be a quick recovery.
On Thursday the International Monetary Fund forecast China’s economy would avoid a recession but grow by just 1.2% this year. Job figures released recently showed the official government unemployment figure had risen sharply, with the number working in companies linked to export trade falling the most.
China has unveiled a range of financial support measures to cushion the impact of the slowdown, but not on the same scale as other major economies.
“We don’t expect large stimulus, given that that remains unpopular in Beijing. Instead, we think policymakers will accept low growth this year, given the prospects for a better 2021,” said Louis Kuijs, an analyst with Oxford Economics.
Since March, China has slowly started letting factories resume production and letting businesses reopen, but this is a gradual process to return to pre-lockdown levels.
Media caption Why does China’s economy matter to you?
China relies heavily on its factories and manufacturing plants for economic growth, and has been dubbed “the world’s factory”.
Stock markets in the region showed mixed reaction to the Chinese economic data, with China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 0.9%.
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng, also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, addresses a teleconference on the construction of major projects and stabilizing investment in Beijing, capital of China, March 26, 2020. (Xinhua/Ding Lin)
BEIJING, March 26 (Xinhua) — Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng on Thursday called for efforts to advance the construction of major projects and give full play to investment in stabilizing economic growth.
Accurate measures should be taken to solve the problems of labor shortage, transportation and supply of raw materials to accelerate the normal operation of key projects, Han said while addressing a teleconference on the construction of major projects and stabilizing investment.
Han said financial support such as local special bonds should prioritize key areas and major projects. The construction of “new infrastructure” projects such as 5G networks should be strongly encouraged to ramp up new business modes such as the digital economy.
He also urged efforts to ensure the use of land and sea of key projects, streamline project approval procedures and strengthen project management.
More work should be done to implement key foreign-funded projects, speed up the introduction of policies for further opening-up and continue optimizing the business environment, he added.
Some companies polled by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce said they were speeding up plans to move operations out of mainland
Transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity
China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or lower because of the outbreak, according to a government economist. Photo: Bloomberg
The majority of US firms with operations in China expect a virus outbreak
to cut revenue this year, and some are accelerating plans to shift their supply chains out of the country, according to a poll by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce.
Nearly a quarter of the firms forecast revenue would fall by at least 16 per cent this year due to the outbreak, while over a fifth said it would decline by 11-15 per cent. Only 13 per cent of respondents said revenue would see very little or no impact from the virus.
The survey covered 127 companies, including 20 with China-sourced revenues of over US$500 million and 27 with China revenues of US$100 million to US$500 million.
Sixteen per cent of respondents expected China’s gross domestic product to fall by more than 2 per cent due to the outbreak.
China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak
The death toll from the virus in China has topped 600, with more than 31,000 people infected. Widespread transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity in much of the country, and factory closures are starting to ripple through global supply chains.
China faces dilemma as it tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak fears
7 Feb 2020
A government economist said last week that China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or even lower due to the outbreak, possibly pushing policymakers into introducing more stimulus measures.
Sources said Chinese policymakers were preparing measures, including more fiscal spending and interest rate cuts, amid expectations the outbreak would have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth.
In response to the virus, some survey respondents said they were shifting operations out of China and moving more production to other areas, including India.
“Not innovative, but our suppliers are moving operations to Taiwan. This has been considered before, options and planning were being made, but they are pulling the trigger now,” according to one respondent in the survey.
“Our company will directly source from Taiwan and eliminate the mainland China supply chain for more and more products.”
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, visits a startup community in Xi’an, capital of northwest China’s Shaanxi Province, Oct. 15, 2019. Li made an inspection tour in the cities of Xi’an and Xianyang in northwest China’s Shaanxi Province from Monday to Tuesday. (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)
XI’AN, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has stressed deepening reform and opening-up to facilitate steady economic growth and continuously improve people’s livelihood.
Li, also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks during his inspection tour in the cities of Xi’an and Xianyang in northwest China’s Shaanxi Province from Monday to Tuesday.
In his visit to a community in Xi’an, Li stressed that the renovation of old residential communities can improve the livelihood of people, especially those with financial difficulties, and is conducive to boosting effective investment and consumption.
In this regard, Li called for efforts to upgrade community facilities and enhance public services such as elderly care and childcare.
When visiting a restaurant, Li said measures should be taken to guarantee the supply of pork and stabilize vegetable prices to ensure the basic livelihood of those facing difficulties. He also urged the implementation of policies of cutting taxes and fees for private businesses.
The country will make unswerving efforts to open up wider, give equal treatment to both domestic and overseas businesses registered in China, continuously improve the business environment, and intensify the protection of intellectual property rights, said the premier during his visit to Samsung China Semiconductor Co., Ltd.
Commenting on the great development potential of China’s western regions, Li urged greater efforts to create a good business environment, pledging more targeted policy support.
At the construction site of the Yinchuan-Xi’an high-speed railway, the premier underscored the acceleration of key infrastructure projects in west China and encouraged effective investment in spurring development and improving people’s livelihood.
Li, while visiting a startup community, urged efforts to improve the business environment for entrepreneurship and innovation.
MUMBAI (Reuters) – At least 11 people have been killed and six are missing after the Western Indian city of Pune and its neighbouring areas were hit by heavy rain and flash floods, a government official said on Wednesday.
More than 28,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas and the local administration is on alert for more rain, Deepak Mhaisekar told Reuters.
Pune, which is around 200 kilometres (124 miles) east of India’s financial hub of Mumbai, has received 113% more rainfall than average since the start of the monsoon season in early June, a weather department official said.
Of the 11 deaths, five occurred in Pune when a wall collapsed, said Mhaisekar.
South Asia gets monsoon rain annually during the June-September months which cause fatalities and mass displacement.
India’s monsoons, which deliver more than 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, are crucial for farm output and economic growth, but rainfall often weakens the foundations of poorly built walls and buildings resulting in deaths.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Economists say India’s growth is powered by the ‘top 100 million’ people
As India lumbers towards the final phase of an exhausting general election and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP seeks a second term in power, there’s some worrying news. The world’s fastest growing major economy appears to be headed for a slowdown.
The signs are everywhere. Economic growth slowed to 6.6% in the three months to December, the slowest in six quarters. Sales of cars and SUVs have slumped to a seven-year-low. Tractors and two-wheelers sales are down. Net profits for 334 companies (excluding banks and financials) are down 18% year-on-year, according to the Financial Express newspaper.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Sales of cars and SUVs have slumped to a seven-year-low.
One newspaper wondered whether India was “losing the consumption plot”. Taken together, all this points to a fall in both urban and rural incomes, leading to demand contraction. A crop glut has seen farm incomes drop. And credit stagnation, partly triggered by the collapse of a major non-banking financial institution, or a shadow bank, has led to a fall in lending and worsened matters.
Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank and professor of economics at Cornell University, believes the slowdown is “much more serious” than he initially believed. “The evidence is now mounting to the point where it can no longer be ignored,” he told me.
One reason, he believes, is the controversial currency ban in 2016 – also called demonetisation – which adversely hit farmers. More than 80% of the currency circulating in India’s sprawling cash-driven economy was taken out of circulation in what, in the words of one of Prime Minister Modi’s own advisers, was a “massive, draconian, monetary shock”.
Image copyright AFP
“This was evident to all by early 2017. What many observers did not realise then – I did not – is that the shock made the farmers take on debts which ended up causing sustained hardship to them that is continuing and slowing down the agriculture sector.”
GENEVA (Reuters) – U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet warned India on Wednesday that its “divisive policies” could undermine economic growth, saying that narrow political agendas were marginalising vulnerable people in an already unequal society.
“We are receiving reports that indicate increasing harassment and targeting of minorities – in particular Muslims and people from historically disadvantaged and marginalised groups, such as Dalits and Adivasis,” Bachelet said in her annual report to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 