Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Official news agency Xinhua says the three died in Saturday’s attack in the province of Ituri
Central African country is major source of cobalt and copper but armed rebels pose a persistent risk
Mines have been targeted by armed rebels in the past. Photo: Reuters
A gun attack in a mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has killed three Chinese nationals, the official news agency Xinhua reported on Monday.
The attack took place on Saturday in the northeastern province of Ituri, which borders Uganda and South Sudan, Xinhua said, citing the Chinese embassy.
It did not name the mine in question or the company operating it.
The DRC is the world’s biggest producer of mined cobalt – a key ingredient in batteries for electric vehicles – and one of Africa’s biggest copper producers, although its key copper-cobalt producing region is in the southwest, far from the site of the attack.
The country has attracted billions of dollars in investment from Chinese miners in recent years despite security risks.
Congo sends in troops to guard Chinese-owned copper mine amid fears of human rights abuses
20 Jun 2019
Canadian gold miner Banro, which owns mines in Maniema, a DRC province south of Ituri, suspended operations last year after several of its mines were overrun by armed rebels.
The Chinese embassy has asked the Congolese government to “take effective measures to protect the lives and property of Chinese citizens” in the DRC, as well as to expedite an investigation into the killings, Xinhua said, noting that the embassy had repeatedly advised Chinese citizens against travel to Ituri due to the presence of armed groups.
The embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday, a public holiday in China.
Image copyright HAN ZHUImage caption Choosing an electric car was an easy decision for Shenzhen resident Han Zhu
Han Zhu is on a mission to go green. The 29-year-old data analyst wants her next car to be electric. But her reasons for buying an electric vehicle are in part practical.
In the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, government restrictions on the number of petrol cars sold each year mean she would have to enter a lottery or auction to be able to buy a petrol vehicle.
“There is a possibility you may never get it. With the electric vehicle green licence, you don’t have to wait in line,” she says.
Shenzhen has become the showpiece capital for the Chinese electric dream. In 2017 it became the first city in the world to introduce a fleet of electric buses. A year later, the government rolled out a plan to replace city taxis with electric cars.
“In Shenzhen, in almost every residential building there are two charging units. One out of 10 cars on the street are Teslas,” she says. “In China if the policy leads in one direction, technology and money goes in that direction too,” she says.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China has the world’s biggest market for electric vehicles
In less than a decade China’s new electric vehicle market has become the largest in the world. In 2018 more than a million electric vehicles were sold in China, more than three times the number sold in the US.
Beijing invested an estimated $50bn (£43bn) in the industry, hoping that today’s dominance of the electric vehicle market would lead to global automobile supremacy tomorrow.
And thus far the policy has been working. Over the last three years the number of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has tripled, with more than 400 registered nationwide.
But that breakneck expansion alarmed the government. Last year it decided to put the brakes on by withdrawing approximately half of its financial incentives for buyers.
A slump in sales quickly followed, in the last quarter of 2019 sales for electric vehicles plummeted.
Now the coronavirus has supplied a second punch.
Manufacturers have been forced to halt production lines and close dealerships in a bid to stop the spread of virus.
Overall auto sales in plunged 79% in February compared with the same month in 2019, according to figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) fell for the eighth month in a row.
“China’s auto market was already reeling from a large drop in demand in 2019. In 2020 no carmaker has been immune to the effects of the coronavirus. That includes everyone from the oldest joint ventures producing internal combustion engine SUVs to the most innovative upstarts making connected electric vehicles,” says Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“The vast majority [of electric car makers] will not survive. But how long they survive and whether industry consolidation occurs through lots of mergers or bankruptcies will depend on the willingness of the government.”
Image copyright NIOImage caption The NIO EP9 is one of the fastest electric cars in the world
After listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018 and raising billions of dollars, NIO is perhaps the highest-profile Chinese maker of electric cars.
But in the five years since it was founded it has been beset by problems and has burned through hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2019 the company cut 2,000 jobs on the back of falling revenues. In February it announced it had signed a tentative agreement with a local government that has pledged to fund the company.
“China is a huge market growing at an immense pace. We will adjust and adapt to the market condition,” said an NIO spokesperson.
And it’s not just the car makers. China has some giant makers of components, such as batteries.
In 2018 CATL, a Chinese electric battery maker, became the official supplier of BMW’s electric cars.
Last month Tesla announced it would enter into an agreement with the company to supply batteries for Tesla’s newly built Shanghai mega-plant, capable of producing 500,000 vehicles a year.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China’s BYD is the one of the world’s biggest makers of electric vehicles
But despite that apparent success, analysts have their doubts.
“Chinese auto and battery technology is still not world-class. CATL and BYD are strong battery makers, but they are still somewhat behind technologically from their South Korean and Japanese counterparts. And Chinese automakers are still second-class producers even in their own country and they have barely any sales outside China,” says Mr Kennedy.
For car buyers, that question of quality hangs over China’s electric car makers.
Yi Zhi Yong, a middle-aged entrepreneur, drives a hybrid car made by Chinese manufacturer BYD. Backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett, the company was the third-largest battery-only electric car producer in the world in 2019, according to research by EV-volumes.com. Tesla sold the most, followed by another Chinese firm, BAIC.
He didn’t buy a pure electric vehicle because he is not confident about the quality.
“The quality of domestic pure electric vehicles is not good at the moment,” he says. “No domestic pure electric vehicle is worth buying yet.”
But he feels the progress made by China is a source of national pride. “In the 1990s we couldn’t imagine that China could build cars that can compete with the Japanese,” he says.
Back in Shenzhen, Han Zhu says the rolling back of government subsidies won’t put her off buying an electric vehicle. But rather than buying a Chinese marque, she has her eye on a Tesla.
“I think that they are totally different. I was super excited about Tesla but not other electric cars,” she says.
World’s largest coal consumer shows little sign of ending its dependency even though it is also the biggest market for renewable energy sources
UN climate summit is meeting to discuss ways to limit future warming, but hopes are fading that China will commit to further curbs on emissions
China now accounts for around 30 per cent of the world’s carbon emissions. Photo: AP
As world leaders gather in Spain to discuss how to slow the warming of the planet, the spotlight has fallen on China – the top emitter of greenhouse gases.
China burns about half the coal used globally each year. Between 2000 and 2018, its annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for about 30 per cent of the world’s total.
Yet it is also the leading market for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and it manufactures about two-thirds of solar cells installed worldwide.
“We are witnessing many contradictions in China’s energy development,” said Kevin Tu, a Beijing-based fellow with the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “It’s the largest coal market and the largest clean energy market in the world.”
That apparent paradox is possible because of the sheer scale of China’s energy demands.
Pollution alarm as tourism businesses contaminate home of China’s hairy crab
But as China’s economy slows to the lowest level in a quarter century – around 6 per cent growth, according to government statistics – policymakers are doubling down on support for coal and other heavy industries, the traditional backbones of China’s energy system and economy. At the same time, the country is reducing subsidies for renewable energy.
At the annual United Nations climate summit, this year in Madrid, government representatives will put the finishing touches on implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a goal to limit future warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Nations may decide for themselves how to achieve it.
China had previously committed to shifting its energy mix to 20 per cent renewables, including nuclear and hydroelectric energy.
Climate experts generally agree that the initial targets pledged in Paris will not be enough to reach the goal, and next year nations are required to articulate more ambitious targets.
Hopes that China would offer to do much more are fading.
Recent media reports and satellite images suggest that China is building or planning to complete new coal power plants with total capacity of 148 gigawatts – nearly equal to the entire coal-power capacity of the European Union within the next few years, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based non-profit.
China is the world’s leading market for wind turbines and other renewables – but is still a major source of emissions. Photo: Chinatopix via AP
Meanwhile, investment in China’s renewable energy dropped almost 40 per cent in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research organisation. The government slashed subsidies for solar energy.
Last week in Beijing, China’s vice-minister of ecology and environment told reporters that non-fossil-fuel sources already account for 14.3 per cent of the country’s energy mix. He did not indicate that China would embrace more stringent targets soon.
“We are still faced with challenges of developing our economy, improving people’s livelihood,” Zhao Yingmin said.
As a fast-growing economy, it was always inevitable that China’s energy demands would climb steeply. The only question was whether the country could power a sufficiently large portion of its economy with renewables to curb emissions growth.
Many observers took hope from a brief dip in China’s carbon emissions between 2014 and 2016. Today the country’s renewed focus on coal comes as a disappointment.
“Now there’s a sense that rather than being a leader, China is the one that is out of step,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki.
He notes that several developed countries – including Germany, South Korea and the United States – are rapidly reducing their reliance on coal power.
After climbing sharply for two decades, China’s emissions stalled around 2013 and then declined slightly in 2015 and 2016, according to Global Carbon Budget, which tracks emissions worldwide.
This dip came as Chinese leaders declared a “war on pollution” and suspended the construction of dozens of planned coal power plants, including some in Shanxi.
Pollution scandal near China nature reserve at Tengger desert’s edge
At the same time, the government required many existing coal operators to install new equipment in chimneys to remove sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and other hazardous substances. About 80 per cent of coal plants now have scrubbers, said Alvin Lin, Beijing-based China climate and energy policy director for the Natural Resources Defence Council, a non-profit.
As a result, the air quality in many Chinese cities, including Beijing, improved significantly between 2013 and 2017. Residents long accustomed to wearing face masks and running home air-filter machines enjoyed a reprieve of more “blue sky days,” as low-pollution days are known in China.
In the past three years, China’s carbon emissions have begun to rise again, according to Global Carbon Budget.
The coming winter in Beijing may see a return of prolonged smog, as authorities loosen environmental controls on heavy industry – in part to compensate for other slowing sectors in the economy.
The UN Climate Change Conference is taking place in Madrid this month. Photo: AFP
Permits for new coal plants proliferated after regulatory authority was briefly devolved from Beijing to provincial governments, which see construction projects and coal operations as boosts to local economies and tax bases, said Ted Nace, executive director of Global Energy Monitor.
“It’s as though a boa constrictor swallowed a giraffe, and now we’re watching that bulge move through the system,” said Nace. In China, it takes about three years to build a coal plant.
The world has already warmed by 1 degree Celsius. All scenarios envisioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for holding planetary warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius involve steep worldwide reductions in coal-power generation.
In that effort, other countries rely on Chinese manufacturing to hold down prices on solar panels. wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries.
“China has a really mixed record. On the one hand, it’s seen rapidly rising emissions over the past two decades,” said Jonas Nahm, an energy expert at Johns Hopkins University.
“On the other hand, it’s shown it’s able to innovate around manufacturing – and make new energy technologies available at scale, faster and cheaper.”
TOKYO (Reuters) – China, Japan and South Korea have set ambitious targets to put millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on their roads by the end of the next decade at a cost of billions of dollars.
But to date, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have been upstaged by electric vehicles, which are increasingly becoming a mainstream option due to the success of Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) luxury cars as well as sales and production quotas set by China.
Critics argue FCVs may never amount to more than a niche technology. But proponents counter hydrogen is the cleanest energy source for autos available and that with time and more refueling infrastructure, it will gain acceptance.
AMBITIOUS TARGETS
China, far and away the world’s biggest auto market with some 28 million vehicles sold annually, is aiming for more than 1 million FCVs in service by 2030. That compares with just 1,500 or so now, most of which are buses.
Japan, a market of more than 5 million vehicles annually, wants to have 800,000 FCVs sold by that time from around 3,400 currently.
South Korea, which has a car market just one third the size of Japan, has set a target of 850,000 vehicles on the road by 2030. But as of end-2018, fewer than 900 have been sold.
WHY HYDROGEN?
Hydrogen’s proponents point to how clean it is as an energy source as water and heat are the only byproducts and how it can be made from a number of sources, including methane, coal, water, even garbage. Resource-poor Japan sees hydrogen as a way to greater energy security.
They also argue that driving ranges and refueling times for FCVs are comparable to gasoline cars, whereas EVs require hours to recharge and provide only a few hundred kilometers of range.
Many backers in China and Japan see FCVs as complementing EVs rather than replacing them. In general, hydrogen is seen as the more efficient choice for heavier vehicles that drive longer distances, hence the current emphasis on city buses.
THE MAIN PLAYERS
Only a handful of automakers have made fuel cell passenger cars commercially available.
Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) launched the Mirai sedan at the end of 2014, but has sold fewer than 10,000 globally. Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) has offered the Nexo crossover since March last year and has sold just under 2,900 worldwide. It had sales of around 900 for its previous FCV model, the Tucson.
Honda Motor Co Ltd’s (7267.T) Clarity Fuel Cell is available for lease, while Daimler AG’s GLC F-CELL has been delivered to a handful of corporate and public sector clients.
Buses are seeing more demand. Both Toyota and Hyundai have offerings and have begun selling fuel cell components to bus makers, particularly in China.
Several Chinese manufacturers have developed their own buses, notably state-owned SAIC Motor (600104.SS), the nation’s biggest automaker, and Geely Auto Group, which also owns the Volvo Cars and Lotus brands.
WHY HAVEN’T FUEL CELL CARS CAUGHT ON YET?
A lack of refueling stations, which are costly to build, is usually cited as the biggest obstacle to widespread adoption of FCVs. At the same time, the main reason cited for the lack of refueling infrastructure is that there are not enough FCVs to make them profitable.
Consumer worries about the risk of explosions are also a big hurdle and residents in Japan and South Korea have protested against the construction of hydrogen stations. This year, a hydrogen tank explosion in South Korea killed two people, which was followed by a blast at a Norway hydrogen station.
Then there’s the cost. Heavy subsidies are needed to bring prices down to levels of gasoline-powered cars. Toyota’s Mirai costs consumers just over 5 million yen ($46,200) after subsidies of 2.25 million yen. That’s still about 50% more than a Camry.
Automakers contend that once sales volumes increase, economies of scale will make subsidies unnecessary.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India wants to move to 30% electric cars by 2030
India is making a big push for electric vehicles, signalling a turning point in its clean energy policy, writes energy writer Vandana Gombar.
In 2017, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari shocked the automobile industry (and the world) when he announced that he intended for India to move to 100% electric cars by 2030.
“I am going to do this, whether you like it or not. And I am not going to ask you. I will bulldoze it,” he said at an industry conference.
That was an ambitious target given that even the UK and France were hoping to phase out conventional combustion-engine cars only by 2040.
Mr Gadkari and his Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP-led government eventually diluted their plans for electric passenger cars – from 100% the target is now down to 30%.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has some of the world’s most polluted cities, including Delhi
A pushback by the industry and the fear of job losses were among the reasons for the government to do so.
The government has now decided to focus on the segment below cars: two-wheelers, where sales are much higher, and three-wheelers (largely auto-rickshaws).
In the financial year that ended in March, about 3.4 million passenger cars were sold in the country against 21.2 million two-wheelers, according to data released by Indian automobile manufacturers. The number of three-wheelers sold totalled 0.7 million.
The new proposal is to have only electric three-wheelers operating in the country by 2023, and only electric two-wheelers by 2025.
The government seems to have two dominant objectives – to control pollution and take the lead in an emerging industry.
Media caption How an electric car can make money
India wants to become a “global hub of manufacturing of electric vehicles”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech earlier this month. The Economic Survey, a government forecast, released a day before the budget envisaged an Indian city possibly emerging as the “Detroit of electric vehicles” in the future.
But it will be a challenge to create a competitive advantage in electric vehicle manufacturing, or even a market for them, given that India does not have the infrastructure or deep pockets that the world’s current leader in electric mobility, China, has.
The American electric carmaker, Tesla, is setting up a manufacturing plant in Shanghai that is expected to be operational by the end of 2019.
India can perhaps learn a few lessons from China. The authorities there spurred sales partly by placing caps on the number of conventional combustion vehicles that can be sold in its most congested and polluted cities. Beijing has also limited the number of electric vehicles that can be sold. Further, car manufacturers now have to ensure that a specified share of their production is of so-called zero emission vehicles.
Another inspiration for India could be Norway, where electric vehicles accounted for half of last year’s total car sales. A phase-out of combustion vehicles in the country is planned by 2025.
Media caption Why is Norway the land of electric cars?
But there are many encouraging signs in India too.
For one, charging stations are being built at government offices, malls and even within neighbourhoods. Government-owned power companies such as Bharat Heavy Electricals and Energy Efficiency Services plan to begin rolling out charging stations soon. The latter is looking at 10,000 stations over the next two years.
Second, electric vehicle models are proliferating. Hyundai launched its electric Kona car in India in July and Nissan is expected to launch its Leaf model soon. Indian carmakers Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors both sell electric cars.
There are already several models of electric two-wheelers, and bike-sharing companies like Bounce are also going electric. Electric buses too can be spotted in many cities, partly fuelled by incentives. India’s capital, Delhi, is expected to have 1,000 electric buses running on its roads soon.
Even taxi-hailing apps and home delivery services have taken to ferrying parcels and passengers on electric bikes. After a pilot run with electric cabs, Indian ride-hailing giant Ola is now focussing on electric bikes and three-wheelers.
Instead of charging batteries, which could be a time-consuming task, it intends to opt for a battery swapping model where a fully charged battery would quickly replace the discharged one at swapping stations. Bounce too is experimenting with battery swaps.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India sold 3.4 million passenger cars this past financial year
The government is also planning to offer incentives for manufacturing electric vehicles and batteries to boost economic growth and encourage local manufacturing under its Make in India initiative.
The falling cost of batteries could boost India’s electric mobility plans, and make it that much easier for electric vehicles to be competitive with those running on other fuels. And there is the added bonus of cleaner air.
That would push India towards electric mobility in its own unique style and at its own unique pace.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 