Archive for ‘expect’

29/04/2020

China parliament to open key session on May 22 as epidemic subsides

BEIJING (Reuters) – China announced on Wednesday that its parliament will open a key annual session on May 22, signalling that Beijing sees the country returning to normal after being reduced to a near-standstill for months by the COVID-19 epidemic.

During the gathering of the National People’s Congress in the capital, delegates will ratify major legislation, and the government will unveil economic targets, set defence spending projections and make personnel changes. The ruling Communist Party also typically announces signature policy initiatives.

The session was initially scheduled to start on March 5 but was postponed due to COVID-19, which has infected nearly 83,000 people and killed more than 4,600 on the mainland after emerging late last year in the central city of Wuhan.

As the epidemic has subsided, economic and social life gradually returned to normal, making it possible for the congress to convene, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the standing committee of the NPC, the legislature’s top decision-making body, as saying.

The committee also appointed Huang Runqiu as the new minister for ecology and environment, a post vacated when predecessor Li Ganjie became deputy Communist Party chief for Shandong province earlier this month, Xinhua reported.

Tang Yijun was also named as the new justice minister to replace Fu Zhenghua, who has reached the retirement age of 65 for ministers.

The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body to parliament, has proposed starting its annual session a day before the parliamentary session opens.

Analysts expect China to roll out additional fiscal stimulus in order to cushion the blow from COVID-19, which has developed in to a worldwide pandemic that some fear will trigger a severe global recession.

China’s economy contracted for the first time on record during the January-March period, when the government imposed severe travel and transport restriction to curb the spread of the epidemic.

Parliament is also expected to discuss the anti-government protests in Hong Kong, amid growing speculation that Beijing take steps to strengthen its grip on the city.

It is unclear how long parliament and its advisory body will meet for this time, and people familiar with the matter have told Reuters that this year’s annual sessions could be the shortest in decades due to COVID-19 concerns. Usually more than 5,000 delegates descend on Beijing from all over China for at least 10 days.

Beijing city plans to ease quarantine rules as early as Thursday, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters, ahead of the key political meetings.

People arriving in the capital from other parts of China will no long have to be quarantined for two weeks unless they come from high-risk areas such as Heilongjiang in the north and some parts of Guangdong in the southeast, the sources said.

Source: Reuters

12/04/2020

Covid-19 lockdowns brought blue skies back to China, but don’t expect them to last

  • Between January 20 and April 4, PM2.5 levels across the country fell by more than 18 per cent, according to the environment ministry
  • But observers say that as soon as the nation’s factories and roads get back to normal, so too will the air pollution levels
Blue skies were an unexpected upside of locking down cities and halting industrial production across China. Photo: AFP
Blue skies were an unexpected upside of locking down cities and halting industrial production across China. Photo: AFP
China’s air quality has improved dramatically in recent weeks as a result of the widespread city lockdowns and strict travel restrictions introduced to contain the

coronavirus epidemic

. But experts say the blue skies could rapidly disappear as factories and roads reopen under a government stimulus plan to breathe new life into a stalled economy.

According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, between January 20 and April 4 the average concentration of PM2.5 – the tiny particles that pose the biggest risk to health – fell by 18.4 per cent from the same period of last year.
Meanwhile, the average number of days with good air quality – determined as when the air pollution index falls below 100 – rose by 7.5 per cent, it said.

Satellite images released by Nasa and the European Space Agency showed a dramatic drop in nitrogen dioxide emissions in major Chinese cities in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year earlier.

According to Nasa, the changes in Wuhan – the central China city at the epicentre of the initial coronavirus outbreak – were particularly striking, while nitrogen dioxide levels across the whole of eastern and central China were 10 to 30 per cent lower than normal.

The region is home to hundreds of factories, supplying everything from steel and car parts to microchips. Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million, was placed under lockdown on January 23, but those restrictions were lifted on  Wednesday
.
Air pollution is likely to return to China’s cities once the lockdowns are lifted. Photo: Reuters
Air pollution is likely to return to China’s cities once the lockdowns are lifted. Photo: Reuters
Nitrogen dioxide is produced by cars, power plants and other industrial facilities and is thought to exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as asthma.

The space agency said the decline in air pollution levels coincided with the restrictions imposed on transport and business activities.

That was consistent with official data from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which recorded a 25 per cent fall in road freight volume and a 14 per cent decline in the consumption of oil products between January and February.

Guangzhou cases prompt shutdown in ‘Little Africa’ trading hub

8 Apr 2020

Liu Qian, a senior climate campaigner for Greenpeace based in Beijing, said the restrictions on industry and travel were the primary reasons for the improvement in air quality.

According to official data, in February, the concentrations of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide – a toxic gas that comes mostly from industrial burning of coal and other fossil fuels – all fell, by 27 per cent, 28 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively.

“The causes of air pollution are complicated, but the suspension of industrial activity and a drop in public transport use will have helped to reduce levels,” Liu said.

As the epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted to the United States and

Europe

, human and industrial activity in China is gradually picking back up, and so is air pollution.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, measured both by Nasa satellites and official stations in China, started inching back up in the middle of March and had returned to normal levels by the end of the month.

That coincided with the centre’s findings – published on Carbon Brief, a British website on climate change – that coal consumption at power plants and oil refineries across China returned to their normal levels in the fourth week of March.

How the Wuhan experience could help coronavirus battle in US and Europe

10 Apr 2020

Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, a Beijing-based charity, said a stimulus plan to kick-start the economy would have a significant impact on air pollution.

“Once industrial production is fully resumed, so are the emission levels,” he said. “Unless another outbreak happens and triggers another lockdown, which would be terrible, the improvement achieved under the pandemic is unstable and won’t last long.”

After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing launched a 4 trillion yuan (US$567.6 billion) stimulus package that included massive infrastructure investment, but also did huge damage to the environment. In the years that followed, air pollution rose to record highs and sparked a public backlash.

Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s economy was slowing – it grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, its slowest for 29 years – and concerns are now growing that policymakers will go all out to revive it.
“Local governments have been under huge pressure since last year, and there are fears that environmental regulations will be sidelined [in the push to boost economic output],” Ma said.
But Beijing had the opportunity to get it right this time by investing more in green infrastructure projects rather than high-carbon projects, he said.
“A balance between economic development and environmental protection is key to achieving a green recovery, and that is what China needs.”
Source: SCMP
07/02/2020

Most US firms in China expect coronavirus outbreak to hit revenue, survey finds

  • Some companies polled by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce said they were speeding up plans to move operations out of mainland
  • Transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity
China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or lower because of the outbreak, according to a government economist. Photo: Bloomberg
China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or lower because of the outbreak, according to a government economist. Photo: Bloomberg
The majority of US firms with operations in China expect a virus outbreak
to cut revenue this year, and some are accelerating plans to shift their supply chains out of the country, according to a poll by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce.
Nearly a quarter of the firms forecast revenue would fall by at least 16 per cent this year due to the outbreak, while over a fifth said it would decline by 11-15 per cent. Only 13 per cent of respondents said revenue would see very little or no impact from the virus.

The survey covered 127 companies, including 20 with China-sourced revenues of over US$500 million and 27 with China revenues of US$100 million to US$500 million.

Sixteen per cent of respondents expected China’s gross domestic product to fall by more than 2 per cent due to the outbreak.

China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak
The death toll from the virus in China has topped 600, with more than 31,000 people infected. Widespread transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity in much of the country, and factory closures are starting to ripple through global supply chains.
China faces dilemma as it tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak fears
7 Feb 2020

A government economist said last week that China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or even lower due to the outbreak, possibly pushing policymakers into introducing more stimulus measures.

Sources said Chinese policymakers were preparing measures, including more fiscal spending and interest rate cuts, amid expectations the outbreak would have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth.

In response to the virus, some survey respondents said they were shifting operations out of China and moving more production to other areas, including India.

“Not innovative, but our suppliers are moving operations to Taiwan. This has been considered before, options and planning were being made, but they are pulling the trigger now,” according to one respondent in the survey.

“Our company will directly source from Taiwan and eliminate the mainland China supply chain for more and more products.”

Source: SCMP

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