Archive for ‘George Washington University’

12/03/2020

Coronavirus: Donald Trump’s speech was meant to reassure, but it did just the opposite

  • ‘He is a reality-show expert. This is a real crisis. The happy ending is not guaranteed,’ communications strategist says
  • Televised Oval Office address offered an ineffective remedy in the European travel ban and fell short on other policy recommendations, according to analysts
US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday night. Photo: Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday night. Photo: Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump’s coronavirus address from the Oval Office on Wednesday night was meant to project confidence, show leadership in a time of crisis and otherwise reassure an anxious nation and world.

It didn’t work out that way, say health, government policy and crisis management experts, pointing in part to the 1,000-point drop in stock futures even before his 10-minute nationally televised speech was finished.

“You had an uncomfortable president who looked like he didn’t want to be there. He doesn’t want to be the leader that the country, if not free world, wants him to be in a crisis,” said Richard Levick, chief executive of Levick Strategic Communications.

“He is a reality-show expert,” Levick added. “This is a real crisis. The happy ending is not guaranteed. The applause line is not guaranteed. You have to actually lead. He doesn’t like that.”

Trump bans travel from Europe to the US as coronavirus pandemic hits actor Tom Hanks and the NBA
Public health experts say Trump’s announcement that the US was blocking all incoming visitors from Europe for 30 days will prove largely ineffective given that the virus is already firmly rooted in the US and spreading rapidly. And his efforts to reassure the public that testing is widely available, medical experts are fully deployed and face masks widely available was not convincing and a case of too little, too late, they added.

His speech, only his second Oval Office address, followed weeks of denying the gravity of the coronavirus, spreading misinformation, deflecting blame onto Democrats and the media and contradicting highly regarded experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, observers said.

“He has such a bad track record, no one will believe him,” said JB Silvers, professor of health finance at Case Western University in Ohio. “He can’t help but make this a political thing. A Chinese virus? Viruses don’t have nationalities.”

“He could’ve ramped up testing much earlier,” Silvers added. “Instead he told people, ‘Don’t worry, go back to work.’ All the wrong things.”

New York bans gatherings of more than 500 on coronavirus fears

13 Mar 2020

Governments around the world have struggled to cope with the spread of the virus, prepare adequately and take lessons from China and South Korea, which were hit early.

But Trump’s speech also fell short from a policy standpoint, some said. Washington and the markets have been looking for direction, given the logjam and partisanship in Congress. That includes whether the president would support, albeit grudgingly, a Democratic package of economic stimulus measures, oppose specific parts or reject it outright in favour of a still unformed Republican plan.

“No one has a clear sign what he wants, what he will sign,” said Jeffrey Wright, North America analyst with EurAsia Group. “It was a massive failure, one of the least effective presidential prime-time addresses in my memory.”

Companies and markets hate uncertainty and want reassurance, which they’re not getting said Zhaohui Chen, associate professor of commerce at the University of Virginia. “Investors are worried about the policy, that it may cause more harm to the economy,” he said.

Communication and policy experts said there tend to be few obvious answers initially during a crisis, which puts a premium on relatively transparent leaders who can acknowledges what is known and unknown, build trust and work through complexities toward a solution.

“It’s not so much what he did last night, it’s what he did before. Never before has Trump’s habit of making events about himself hurt him until now,” said Eric Dezenhall, chief executive of public relations firm Dezenhall Resources.

“Standing with science officials and talk about how no one has seen such a scientific genius before him, that he should’ve become a doctor, we’re not selling time-shares in the Caymans,” he added.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies to lawmakers about coronavirus preparedness on Thursday. Photo: Getty Images/AFP
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies to lawmakers about coronavirus preparedness on Thursday. Photo: Getty Images/AFP
Leslie Rosenthal, a writer from New Jersey, said the speech failed to reassure her as an ordinary citizen, and seemed to focus on the wrong issues.
“What I wanted to hear from the president was a solution to what’s happening in this country right now,” she said. “While stopping people from coming into the country might do something, it’s about what’s going on here. Where are the test kits? Where are the viral hotspots? I’m placing my trust in Dr. Fauci.”
Trump is a skilled off-the-cuff orator at rallies, where he can energise and be energised by the crowd, communication experts said, and less adept at delivering prepared speeches, as seen on Wednesday night.
“He used a teleprompter, but still made misstatements in ways that rocked the market,” said Levick. Most notable was his statement that his administration was blocking not just people but all cargo from Europe, a statement his office quickly walked back shortly after the speech, he said.
White House orders secrecy for coronavirus meetings
12 Mar 2020

Also questionable was the decision to block travellers from the European continent but not from Britain, even though the UK is a global travel and financial hub.

“You can’t ban people from some countries and not others,” said Ron Waldman, a doctor, professor of global health and infectious disease specialist at George Washington University. “It makes no sense.”

Trump hoped the speech would build confidence in the US economy, its health care system and his leadership. “The virus will not have a chance against us,” he said. “No nation is more prepared.”

But many experts had a different view.

“We’re clearly unprepared,” said Ali Khan, epidemiology professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and a former director at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

“We don’t even need to talk about a pandemic,” he said, adding that even a bad flu outbreak would swamp American hospitals.

Trump vows to ‘take care’ of citizens and economy as coronavirus cases rise in the US

After playing down the economic and health risks from the coronavirus for weeks, the Trump administration kicked into gear on Monday, floating a blizzard of proposals to stimulate the economy. These include expanding loans to small businesses, increasing paid sick leave and extending tax relief for the hospitality industry. The White House and congressional leaders are now trying to hammer out an economic relief bill.

Trump’s turnaround reflects, in part, a growing realisation that the disease is real, can’t be tweeted away, can’t be blamed on political opponents and seriously threatens his re-election prospects.

“He’s definitely worried,” said Silvers. “All those ‘Democratic viruses’ are going to cause him trouble.”

Source: SCMP

17/08/2019

Are Chinese infrastructure loans putting Africa on the debt-trap express?

  • Beijing has lent billions of dollars to countries on the continent to build railways, highways and airports but critics say the borrowings are unsustainable
  • Chinese officials say the projects will pay off in the long run and host nations are well aware of their limits and needs
Illustration: Lau Kakuen
Illustration: Lau Kakuen
When Clement Mouamba went to Beijing last year, he had two main tasks.
The prime minister of the Republic of Congo needed to find out exactly how much his country owed to China, a number the struggling, oil-rich central African nation had until then not been able to provide the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to qualify for a bailout. He also needed to convince Beijing to restructure its debt to ensure sustainability.
The IMF had put talks for further loans on hold until Mouamba’s administration could say exactly how much it had to repay to the country’s external creditors, including China – the republic’s single largest bilateral lender – and oil multinationals such as Glencore and Trafigura.
The country, which heavily depends on oil revenue, turned to China and private oil majors for funding to run the government when in 2014 oil prices fell from a high of US$100 per barrel to as low as US$30.

Critics say countries on the continent are being burdened with unrealistic levels of debt for inviable infrastructure backed and built by China without adequate transparency and scrutiny.

The biggest concern is that several African countries will be left with huge debts and grandiose infrastructure that they cannot maintain and run profitably. I liken it to borrowing money to buy a Tesla when you don’t have adequate access to electricity: Obert Hodzi of the University of Helsinki in Finland

But Chinese observers say the West must take some of the blame for the countries’ debt problems and that the support China offers will benefit the host countries in the long run.

In the early 1990s, when China began to embrace Africa again after years of isolation from the outside world, the aspiring manufacturer was at a serious disadvantage in the race for raw materials and markets for its industrial goods.

The former colonial powers of the West had already sewn up deals for many of the continent’s most lucrative and readily exploitable reserves, from fossil fuels to minerals.

China needed new strategies to convince African governments to allow it access raw materials for its industries and markets for its products to a largely unfamiliar partner.

China also wanted to challenge the dominance of the US in global trade and politics so it courted allies in Africa to help it push for political legitimacy in international institutions.

A Kenya Railways freight train leaves the port station on the Mombasa-Nairobi railway in Mombasa, Kenya, a huge project backed by China. Photo: Bloomberg
A Kenya Railways freight train leaves the port station on the Mombasa-Nairobi railway in Mombasa, Kenya, a huge project backed by China. Photo: Bloomberg

At the time, many African leaders were under fire to liberalise their economies. China’s approach was to promise not to meddle in individual country’s internal affairs and assure African countries that they could get billions in exchange for future delivery of minerals through resource-backed deals.

Beijing sold its policies that it had no conditions attached to its development finance. In the drive to drum up business, China promised affordable loans for African countries to build roads, bridges, highways, airports and power dams.

Is Kenya’s Chinese-built railway a massive white elephant?

But Beijing also pursued tied finance, ensuring that countries borrowing from China used Chinese contractors to implement the projects rather than open them up to outside bids.

In addition, many of the deals were built on weak financial, technical and environmental conditions, with Chinese state firms conducting the technical feasibility, environmental impact assessment and financial viability studies for free for projects that they also build.

For example, in Kenya, the China Road and Bridge Corporation conducted a free feasibility study that was used in the construction of the railway.

The same company was handed the contract to implement the project and is operating both the passenger and cargo train service for a fee.

Chinese companies were responsible for the construction of a rail line between Addis Ababa and Djibouti. Photo: AFP
Chinese companies were responsible for the construction of a rail line between Addis Ababa and Djibouti. Photo: AFP

In contrast, the World Bank and its partner institution, the IMF, demand that such studies be done by an independent consultant and not by the company that implements the project.

According to data compiled by the China-Africa Research Initiative, at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Beijing has advanced loans worth US$143 billion to African countries since 2000, levels that some critics say are unsustainable for the borrowers.

China meets resistance over Kenya coal plant, in test of its African ambitions

For many of China’s new African partners, these arrangements – from easy lending terms, to non-competitive bidding and opaque contract details – have led to new problems – problems that corrupt or poorly managed governments now share substantial responsibility.

Some critics, both in the West and in host countries, suggest there is a “debt-trap strategy” at the heart of Beijing’s push for international business and influence, but there is no evidence that China deliberately pushes other countries into debt to seize their assets or gain sway.

However, the drive for overseas contracts and big business has led some countries into difficulties with new debts, and there are question marks over the viability of many of the projects the money is funding.

Obert Hodzi, an international relations expert at the University of Helsinki in Finland, said the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway and the Mombasa-Nairobi railway were good examples of huge projects that were financed by easy borrowing terms from China but were not sustainable and that had in turn forced the African partners to seek further Chinese help.

“The biggest concern is that several African countries will be left with huge debts and grandiose infrastructure that they cannot maintain and run profitably,” Hodzi said. “I liken it to borrowing money to buy a Tesla when you don’t have adequate access to electricity.”

Ken Opalo, a Kenyan scholar at Georgetown University in Washington, said the key issue was the inability of African countries to design projects that were actually needed for the local economies.

A road is not just a means of transport but an economic belt or corridor that will catalyse the development of the whole region: Huang Xueqing, spokeswoman for the Chinese embassy in Nairobi

“Most African countries have been willing to accept projects designed, financed, and implemented by Chinese firms,” Opalo said.
“It would be better to decouple the feasibility studies and design phases of projects from the financing. That way African governments can ensure that they are truly getting value for money.”
But Chinese officials said Beijing had invested in infrastructure largely at the request of the host countries, adding that it could take time to yield returns on the projects.

Huang Xueqing, spokeswoman for the Chinese embassy in Nairobi, said the projects were valid assets with value that would grow in time.

“So, in the long run, it is beneficial to the host countries. Just like when young people buy a house with a mortgage, they may take some debts, but they have a place to live in and have their own assets,” Huang said.

“Underdeveloped infrastructure is the bottleneck that has been holding back Africa’s development. Up to today, many African countries, although in the same continent, are not connected with direct flights, railways or even roads. You have to fly to Paris or Zurich in order to get to some African countries.

“A road is not just a means of transport but an economic belt or corridor that will catalyse the development of the whole region.”

Huang said Beijing had advised the countries to act within their means and not to overstretch themselves when they considered projects that might not be in line with local conditions.

“When making investment decisions, the Chinese side, along with the recipient countries, carry out rigorous feasibility studies and evaluations. We do things according to our ability,” she said.

China’s leadership has also said it is paying close attention to the fiscal and financial difficulties faced by some African countries.

“As a good friend and good brother … the Chinese side is willing to lend a helping hand when needed by the African people to help them overcome temporary difficulties,” State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in January while on a trip to Ethiopia, adding that the debt situation in Africa is also a legacy issue.

China must allay any debt-trap fears in its dealings with Africa

“The African debt issue does not come up today, still less is it caused by the Chinese side. The African people know who are the initiators of African debt.”

The West should take a lot of the blame for worsening debt problems in some African countries, according to Li Anshan, from Peking University’s Centre for African Studies.

He cited the cases of Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, two countries that have had close relations with the West for many years but remain ravaged by war and poverty despite immense natural resources.

“China-Africa relations have been going on for quite some time. Is there any African country which has got poorer because of its deal with China?” Li said.

Gyude Moore, a former Liberian minister of public works whose department oversaw construction and maintenance of various public infrastructure funded and built by China, said it would be difficult to imagine that China would knowingly ensnare its partners in debt.

“China attempts to differentiate itself from Western donors by limiting non loan-related conditionality. China also practices non-interference, so how a country manages its resources, treats its people or deploy its finances were considered ‘internal’,” he said.

“So, Chinese loans are negotiated faster and place less emphasis on public financial management.”

Moore, now a visiting fellow at the Centre for Global Development, said there were trade-offs in such situations.

China focuses on sustainable projects to dismiss fears of African debt trap

“If the loans are going to be fast – the due diligence will not be as rigorous. Chinese project selection mixes political with economic considerations. So, while a project may not make as much economic sense, it may pay political dividends,” he said.

He said non-transparent processes would invite abuse, be they Chinese, Western or African.

Other observers say the question of opacity is more directly related to China’s own economic system.

Howard French, author of China’s Second Continent: How a Million Migrants are Building a New Empire in Africa, said China has very limited transparency and public accountability in its own domestic processes.

The Mombasa railway station is seen in Mombasa, Kenya, in 2018. Photo: Xinhua
The Mombasa railway station is seen in Mombasa, Kenya, in 2018. Photo: Xinhua

“So it would be unusual to expect that China would introduce greater transparency and accountability in its dealings with African countries than it is used to at home – that is, unless African governments insist on it,” French said.

“And this is where African governance comes in. African states should insist on contract transparency but often don’t do so because that offers leaders plentiful opportunities for graft.”

David Shinn, professor of international relations at George Washington University in Washington, agreed that China’s lack of loan transparency was a huge problem and increased the risk of corruption on both the African and Chinese sides. But he also said that in some cases, African governments might have negotiated poorly.

“This is, however, the responsibility of the African government. I don’t think China is purposely trying to encourage African debts in order to gain leverage,” Shinn said.

“In fact, China is becoming more careful about its lending because it is concerned it has made too much credit available to some African countries.”

China ‘ready to talk’ about trade deal with East Africa bloc

Huang Hongxiang, director of China House, a Nairobi-based consultancy that helps Chinese in Africa integrate better, agreed, saying the Chinese government needs to communicate more about projects in Africa but African countries also have a bigger part to play in ensuring better deals.

“On commercial viability, accountability, transparency and governance, I believe the responsibility does not lie with China, the US or the West but in the hands of African countries,” he said.

Wherever the fault lies, one thing is clear when money is wasted on ill-designed projects that have little to no economic return, according to Opalo.

“The lack of planning and transparency creates default risks … [and] African taxpayers will be left holding the bag.”

This article is the third in a series examining the local impact of Chinese investment and infrastructure projects in Africa. Read part one  here and part two

 here

.

The next report will examine whether African countries can speak with one voice in relations with China.
Source: SCMP
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