Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAUImage caption The area has become a hotspot in part because of a road India has built
The armies of the world’s two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.
Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.
The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.
The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi – this is not a routine incursion.
“The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo,” says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army.
China takes a different view, saying it’s India which has changed facts on the ground.
Reports in the Indian media said soldiers from the two sides clashed on at least two occasions in Ladakh. Stand-offs are reported in at least three locations: the Galwan valley; Hot Springs; and Pangong lake to the south.
India and China share a border more than 3,440km (2,100 miles) long and have overlapping territorial claims. Their border patrols often bump into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles but both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades.
Their armies – two of the world’s largest – come face to face at many points. The poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) separates the two sides. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line separating soldiers can shift and they often come close to confrontation.
The current military tension is not limited to Ladakh. Soldiers from the two sides are also eyeball-to-eyeball in Naku La, on the border between China and the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim. Earlier this month they reportedly came to blows.
And there’s a row over a new map put out by Nepal, too, which accuses India of encroaching on its territory by building a road connecting with China.
Why are tensions rising now?
There are several reasons – but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.
“The traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh,” Mr Shukla says.
India’s decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.
Image copyright AFPImage caption There have been protests in Nepal against Indi’s new road link
“According to the Chinese military, India is the one which has forced its way into the Galwan valley. So, India is changing the status quo along the LAC – that has angered the Chinese,” says Dr Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA), a think tank.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center, another think tank, says this face-off is not routine. He adds China’s “massive deployment of soldiers is a show of strength”.
The road could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.
Differences have been growing in the past year over other areas of policy too.
The new federally-administered Ladakh included Aksai Chin, an area India claims but China controls.
Senior leaders of India’s Hindu-nationalist BJP government have also been talking about recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A strategic road, the Karakoram highway, passes through this area that connects China with its long-term ally Pakistan. Beijing has invested about $60bn (£48bn) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative and the highway is key to transporting goods to and from the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.
In addition, China was unhappy when India initially banned all exports of medical and protective equipment to shore up its stocks soon after the coronavirus pandemic started earlier this year.
How dangerous could this get?
“We routinely see both armies crossing the LAC – it’s fairly common and such incidents are resolved at the local military level. But this time, the build-up is the largest we have ever seen,” says former Indian diplomat P Stobdan, an expert in Ladakh and India-China affairs.
“The stand-off is happening at some strategic areas that are important for India. If Pangong lake is taken, Ladakh can’t be defended. If the Chinese military is allowed to settle in the strategic valley of Shyok, then the Nubra valley and even Siachen can be reached.”
In what seems to be an intelligence failure, India seems to have been caught off guard again. According to Indian media accounts, the country’s soldiers were outnumbered and surrounded when China swiftly diverted men and machines from a military exercise to the border region.
This triggered alarm in Delhi – and India has limited room for manoeuvre. It can either seek to persuade Beijing to withdraw its troops through dialogue or try to remove them by force. Neither is an easy option.
“China is the world’s second-largest military power. Technologically it’s superior to India. Infrastructure on the other side is very advanced. Financially, China can divert its resources to achieve its military goals, whereas the Indian economy has been struggling in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation,” says Ajai Shukla.
What next?
History holds difficult lessons for India. It suffered a humiliating defeat during the 1962 border conflict with China. India says China occupies 38,000km of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary issues.
China already controls the Aksai Chin area further east of Ladakh and this region, claimed by India, is strategically important for Beijing as it connect its Xinjiang province with western Tibet.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India and China have a long history of border disputes
In 2017 India and China were engaged in a similar stand-off lasting more than two months in Doklam plateau, a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.
This time, too, talks are seen as the only way forward – both countries have so much to lose in a military conflict.
“China has no intention to escalate tensions and I think India also doesn’t want a conflict. But the situation depends on both sides. The Indian government should not be guided by the nationalistic media comments,” says Dr Long Xingchun of the CIWA in Chengdu. “Both countries have the ability to solve the dispute through high-level talks.”
Chinese media have given hardly any coverage to the border issue, which is being interpreted as a possible signal that a route to talks will be sought.
Pratyush Rao, associate director for South Asia at Control Risks consultancy, says both sides have “a clear interest in prioritising their economic recovery” and avoiding military escalation.
“It is important to recognise that both sides have a creditable record of maintaining relative peace and stability along their disputed border.”
Taiwan sends fighters to intercept mainland military aircraft after they cross dividing line in Taiwan Strait
Incursion comes at end of visit to Washington by vice-president-elect William Lai that angered Beijing
A Taiwanese fighter jet shadows a mainland Chinese bomber over the Taiwan Strait on Monday. Photo: Military News Agency, ROC
Taiwan sent warplanes to intercept a group of mainland Chinese jets that had briefly approached the island on Monday, the second such incident in two days.
The incident came as the island’s vice-president-designate William Lai Ching-te concluded an eight-day visit to the US that had angered Beijing.
The mainland warplanes, including H-6 bombers, briefly crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait on their way to the western Pacific through the Bashi Channel in the morning for long-haul training exercises, Taiwan’s defence ministry said in a statement on Monday.
“Our air force scrambled fighter jets to shadow, intercept and disperse the communist warplanes through radio broadcasting,” the ministry said, adding the mainland planes later left the area.
The mainland warplanes later returned to their home base after their morning drill, the military said.
It was the second day in a row that the mainland warplanes flew past Taiwan after a group of aircraft, including J-11 fighter jets, KJ-500 early warning aircraft and H-6 bombers, flew over the Bashi Channel on Sunday before returning to their bases via the Miyako Strait northeast of Taiwan, the ministry said.
“The military has full surveillance and control of the communist long-haul training activities and the public can rest assured of our capability to uphold security or our national territory,” it said.
Meanwhile, Lai completed his eight-day “private” visit to Washington, during which he met the National Security Council and other US officials and senators.
Lai, who left for the US last Sunday to attend the National Prayer Breakfast – an annual gathering of political and religious leaders in Washington – was considered the highest-level Taiwanese official to meet with National Security Council officials since the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taipei in 1979.
The visit was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough for the island because until now Washington has been reluctant to allow such exchanges for fear of angering Beijing, which has repeatedly demanded that the US adhere to the “one-China” policy.
Taiwan scrambles jets as mainland Chinese air force flies around island
9 Feb 2020
Beijing views Taiwan as a wayward province that must be brought back to the mainland fold – by force if necessary.
It has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was first elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle as the basis for cross-strait exchanges.
Since then, Beijing has staged war games close to the island and poached seven of Taiwan’s allies to heap pressure on the president, who was reelected last month.
A People’s Liberation Army spokesperson said on Sunday the flight was a “necessary action” under “current security situation across the Taiwan Strait”.
Vice-President-elect William Lai Ching-te met National Security Council officials on his visit to the White House. Photo: Facebook
Observers said Lai’s US visit was made possible due to a new US policy to allow high-level official and military exchanges with Taiwan, which has been included in the US security alliance to counter the mainland’s military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.
They said Lai is still technically a civilian until he takes office in May, and the US can always use this status to defend its move, although the visit has prompted strong protests from the Chinese foreign ministry.
Observers also said Taiwan’s efforts in seeking to join the World Health Organisation amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak have also riled Beijing, which has repeatedly said the island is a mainland province with no right to join international bodies which require statehood for membership.
Taipei complains to World Health Organisation after coronavirus case is classed as ‘Taiwan, China’
23 Jan 2020
On Monday, Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned the Tsai government against “playing with fire” by “trying to use its strengthening ties with the US to plot independence”.
“This is a sheer provocation,” Ma said, adding what the People’s Liberation Army did was to protect the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the mainland and to maintain cross-strait peace.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator for Hong Kong Phoenix Television, said the patrol was aimed at the separatist movement on the island.
“Such a patrol is for war-preparedness … and has become a routine practice and a resolution to effectively attack the pro-independence force,” said Song, a former instructor for the PLA’s Second Artillery, the predecessor of the Rocket Force.
A Beijing-based military source close to the PLA, who requested anonymity, said the warplanes were equipped with missiles, which has become a standard procedure for PLA’s air drills.
Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU
Image copyright AFP
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 