Archive for ‘International Monetary Fund’

17/04/2020

China’s virus-hit economy shrinks for first time in decades

Train passengers arrive from WuhanImage copyright EPA

China’s economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year, as the virus forced factories and businesses to close.

The world’s second biggest economy contracted 6.8% according to official data released on Friday.

The financial toll the coronavirus is having on the Chinese economy will be a huge concern to other countries.

China is an economic powerhouse as a major consumer and producer of goods and services.

This is the first time China has seen its economy shrink in the first three months of the year since it started recording quarterly figures in 1992.

“The GDP contraction in January-March will translate into permanent income losses, reflected in bankruptcies across small companies and job losses,” said Yue Su at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Last year, China saw healthy economic growth of 6.4% in the first quarter, a period when it was locked in a trade war with the US.

In the last two decades, China has seen average economic growth of around 9% a year, although experts have regularly questioned the accuracy of its economic data.

Its economy had ground to a halt during the first three months of the year as it introduced large-scale shutdowns and quarantines to prevent the virus spread in late January.

As a result, economists had expected bleak figures, but the official data comes in slightly worse than expected.

Among other key figures released in Friday’s report:

  • Factory output was down 1.1% for March as China slowly starts manufacturing again.
  • Retail sales plummeted 15.8% last month as many of shoppers stayed at home.
  • Unemployment hit 5.9% in March, slightly better than February’s all-time high of 6.2%.
Presentational grey line

Analysis: A 6% expansion wiped out

Robin Brant, BBC News, Shanghai

The huge decline shows the profound impact that the virus outbreak, and the government’s draconian reaction to it, had on the world’s second largest economy. It wipes out the 6% expansion in China’s economy recorded in the last set of figures at the end of last year.

Beijing has signalled a significant economic stimulus is on the way as it tries to stabilise its economy and recover. Earlier this week the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, the People’s Daily, reported it would “expand domestic demand”.

But the slowdown in the rest of the global economy presents a significant problem as exports still play a major role in China’s economy. If it comes this will not be a quick recovery.

On Thursday the International Monetary Fund forecast China’s economy would avoid a recession but grow by just 1.2% this year. Job figures released recently showed the official government unemployment figure had risen sharply, with the number working in companies linked to export trade falling the most.

Presentational grey line

China has unveiled a range of financial support measures to cushion the impact of the slowdown, but not on the same scale as other major economies.

“We don’t expect large stimulus, given that that remains unpopular in Beijing. Instead, we think policymakers will accept low growth this year, given the prospects for a better 2021,” said Louis Kuijs, an analyst with Oxford Economics.

Since March, China has slowly started letting factories resume production and letting businesses reopen, but this is a gradual process to return to pre-lockdown levels.

Media caption Why does China’s economy matter to you?

China relies heavily on its factories and manufacturing plants for economic growth, and has been dubbed “the world’s factory”.

Stock markets in the region showed mixed reaction to the Chinese economic data, with China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 0.9%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.5% on Friday, although this was largely due to gains on Wall Street after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to ease lockdowns.

Source: The BBC

24/02/2020

Economic Watch: In two-front battle, corporate China gears up operation restoration

BEIJING, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) — With the positive trend of containing the outbreak of novel coronavirus illness (COVID-19), China is meticulously expanding business operations with a precise approach that attaches different priorities to regions in light of their health risks.

A total of 11 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported Sunday outside Hubei Province, the center of the outbreak, while 24 provincial-level regions didn’t report newly confirmed cases, according to the National Health Commission Monday.

As more provincial-level regions have been reporting no newly confirmed cases for longer streaks, more local governments are starting to lower their emergency response to fast-track the restoration of economic and social order.

While high-risk regions still need to be fully committed to epidemic prevention and control, regions with relatively low risks are encouraged to focus on forestalling cases brought in from elsewhere and comprehensively restoring the order of production and life, said a meeting Sunday.

Coastal province Fujian has divided the 88 cities and counties into four groups, ranging from regions with over ten infections to regions with none, and adopted differentiated measures to better fight the outbreak and mitigate the impact on the economy.

Changting County in Fujian, for instance, which has no confirmed cases of infection, has seen most of the key enterprises resume production.

The country has pledged efforts such as arranging customized trains for migrant workers, smoothing the traffic, enhancing credit support and alleviating social security burden on employers to bring enterprises back on track.

Shanghai Municipality has rolled out 28 policies to provide targeted fiscal support, tax and fee cuts, as well as epidemic-prevention supplies for local enterprises, ferrying them through rough patches.

Foreign companies will also benefit from the supportive policies and be treated on the same footing as other types of enterprises, said Xu Wei, spokesperson for the Shanghai municipal government.

The operation resumption rate of 51,000 foreign-funded enterprises in Shanghai is nearly 70 percent, while that of the regional headquarters of 217 multinational companies is as high as 93 percent.

Wyeth Nutrition, a Sino-U.S. joint venture with its headquarter in Shanghai, is operating at its capacity to supply infant formula in China.

“The local commerce department has built a green channel for us, ensuring smooth operation of our supply chains and product delivery in the Yangtze River Delta,” said Cao Jingheng, vice president of the company.

Foreign firms and firms are high on the agenda of Chinese government agencies when formulating preferential policies.

The Ministry of Commerce has promised to strengthen services and guarantees to foreign-funded enterprises while the General Administration of Customs vowed efforts to optimize the port business environment and promote reciprocal market opening up.

Now with the country gradually heading back to work, many are confident that the potential economic blow brought by the national production halt is expected to be only a short-term, one-off hit against China’s solid economic foundation.

The epidemic might disturb economic activities in the first quarter of this year, but the economy is likely to steady shortly after the epidemic is contained, as the unleashing of pent-up demands will make up for previous weak economic performance, said Pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Saturday that she expects China’s economy to “return to normal in the second quarter” of 2020.

“As a result, the impact on the world economy would be relatively minor and short-lived,” Georgieva said.

Source: Xinhua

23/02/2020

Korea raises alert to highest level as coronavirus cases jump

SEOUL/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – South Korea raised its disease alert to the highest level on Sunday after a surge in coronavirus infections and two more deaths, while China state media warned the outbreak there had yet to reach a turning point despite some signs of easing.

South Korea’s president said he was putting the country on “red alert” due to the rapid rise in new cases, which are largely being traced back to church services. Health officials reported 169 new infections, bringing the total to 602, having doubled from Friday to Saturday.

The escalation in the alert level allows the government to send extra resources to Daegu city and Cheongdo county, which were designated “special care zones” on Friday.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said it also enables the government to forcibly prevent public activities and order the temporary closure of schools, though the government gave no immediate details on what steps could be taken.

In China, the health commission confirmed 648 new infections – higher than a day earlier – but only 18 were outside of Hubei province, the lowest number outside of the epicenter since authorities started publishing data a month ago and locked down large parts of the country.

But the number of cases continued to climb elsewhere.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe instructed government agencies on Sunday to urgently prepare medical provisions and draft a comprehensive plan to curb the spread of the virus, after it reported 27 more cases a day earlier.

The U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory level one notch for South Korea and Japan to Level 2 on a scale of 1 to 4.

Concern about the reach and rapid spread of coronavirus also grew in Europe and the Middle East.

Cases in Italy, Europe’s worst hit country, more than quadrupled to 79 on Saturday, with two deaths.

Iran reported a total of 43 infections, with eight deaths – all since Tuesday – forcing some of its neighbors to announce travel and immigration curbs.

The World Health Organization on Saturday stressed that the number of cases outside of China was still relatively few, but it was worried by the detection of infections without a clear link to China.

The disease has spread to some 26 countries and territories outside China, killing more than a dozen people, according to a Reuters tally. It has been fatal in 2% of reported cases, with the elderly and ill the most vulnerable, according to the WHO.

The potential economic impact of coronavirus was prominent at a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Riyadh, at which the International Monetary Fund chief said China’s 2020 growth would likely be lower at 5.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from its January outlook, with 0.1 percentage points shaved from global growth.

Graphic: Online site for coronavirus news here

Graphic: Tracking the novel coronavirus here

CHURCH CONTAGION

The last time South Korea raised the alert to the highest was 11 years ago during the Influenza A or H1N1 outbreak.

Many of South Korea’s new cases were linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus congregation in Daegu after a 61-year-old woman known as “Patient 31” tested positive for the virus last week. The woman had no recent record of overseas travel.

Catholic churches in Daegu and Gwangju have suspended mass and other gatherings, while churches elsewhere saw declines in attendance on Sunday, especially among the elderly.

“If the situation gets worse, I think we’ll need to take more measures. Currently, we’re limiting personal gatherings within the church except for Mass,” said Song Gi-young, 53, wearing a face mask at church.

Heo Young-moo, 88, expressed frustration.

“Devotees shouldn’t go to any risky places … Hasn’t it become so widespread because those people didn’t get checked?”,” he said.

Outside of the church was a sign that said: “All Shincheonji followers are strictly prohibited from entering”.

The foreign ministry said South Koreans aboard a plane to Israel had been denied entry there on Saturday due to concerns about the virus spread.

China said the number of new deaths on Saturday from COVID-19, as the disease caused by the virus is known, was 97, all but one of which were in Hubei.

Eighty-two of those were in the provincial capital Wuhan, where Xinhua news agency said nucleic tests were being carried out on the backlog of cases to try to contain the spread.

In total, China has reported 76,936 cases, and 2,442 deaths. The WHO says the virus is severe or critical in only a fifth of infected patients, and mild in the rest.

Graphic: Reuters graphics on the new coronavirus here

NOT OVER YET

Beijing, Zhejiang, Sichuan had no new infections on Feb. 22 for the first time since the outbreak was detected. There were signs of street life in Shanghai, with some cafes serving take-out food and families wearing masks walking their dogs.

State run television on Sunday urged people to avoid complacency, drawing attention to people gathering in public areas and tourist spots without wearing masks.

Analysts have been closely watching out for any signs of a secondary wave of infections as transport restrictions are eased and many migrant workers return to factories and offices. Business activity in the world’s second-biggest economy is only gradually returning to normal after widespread disruptions.

Japan’s health minister apologized on Saturday after a woman who was allowed to leave the coronavirus-struck Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive despite having underwent quarantine.

At least 623 cases have been reported on the vessel, the biggest outbreak outside China, involving more than a dozen nationalities.

In Italy, schools and universities were closed and some soccer matches postponed in Lombardy and Veneto, the country’s industrial heartland.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq have travel and immigration curbs on Iran, while Oman on Sunday urged its citizens to steer clear of countries with high infection rates and said arrivals from those nations would be quarantined.

Source: Reuters

22/02/2020

Covid-19 likely to slash US$185 billion off China’s economy in January, February, says ex-IMF official

  • Dips in tourism, consumer spending could reduce first-quarter growth by three or four percentage points, according to Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund
  • Massive effort now needed to help country rebound, economist says
The coronavirus outbreak in China sparked a huge dip in consumer spending. Photo: EPA-EFE
The coronavirus outbreak in China sparked a huge dip in consumer spending. Photo: EPA-EFE
The deadly coronavirus outbreak may have cost China more than 1.3 trillion yuan (US$185 billion) in the first two months of the year because of huge dips in consumer spending and tourism, according to a former senior executive with the

International Monetary Fund.

Zhu Min, who was deputy managing director of the IMF from 2011 to 2016, said during an online presentation on Saturday that the Covid-19 epidemic was likely to have cost the tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February compared with last year, while consumer spending on food and drink was likely to have fallen by about 420 billion yuan.

While online spending – particularly on education and entertainment services – would offset some of the losses, the total drain on the economy over the period could be as much as 1.38 trillion yuan, said Zhu, who is currently head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing, which organised the presentation.

Based on figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, that would represent about 3.3 per cent of the country’s total retail sales in 2019.

Zhu Min says the Covid-19 epidemic cost China’s tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February. Photo: AFP
Zhu Min says the Covid-19 epidemic cost China’s tourism industry about 900 billion yuan in January and February. Photo: AFP
“The falling consumption in the first quarter could knock down growth by three or four percentage points,” Zhu said. “We need a strong rebound, and that needs 10 times as much effort.”

Consumer spending is a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, accounting for almost 60 per cent of its growth last year. But with the coronavirus still far from contained, many local governments are reluctant to allow public facilities like cinemas and restaurants to reopen.

Despite the grim estimates provided by Zhu, his figures did not include car sales, which fell by 20.5 per cent year on year in January, their largest monthly dip in 15 years, according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association.

Sales in the first two weeks of February fell 92 per cent from the same period of 2019, mainly due to showroom closures. Over the whole of 2020, the coronavirus epidemic could cost China 1 million car sales, or about 5 per cent of its annual total, the industry group said.

In an effort to minimise that impact, Beijing has told local governments to introduce stimulus measures to boost car sales, including raising licence quotas in areas where numbers had previously been restricted to help fight air pollution.

Commerce ministry official Wang Bin said on Friday that the central government expected consumer spending to bottom out in March before rebounding in the second half of the year.

As for the economy as a whole, Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing-based think tank, said this week that even if national production returned to 80 per cent by the end of February, first-quarter growth would still be less than 4.5 per cent. By comparison, China’s economy grew by 6.4 per cent in the first three months of 2019.

Economists from French bank Natixis forecast China’s gross domestic product to grow by between 2.5 and 4 per cent in the first quarter, depending on how quickly the situation was stabilised and the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus measures.

Source: SCMP
22/11/2019

Chinese premier meets int’l institutions leaders on world economy

CHINA-BEIJING-LI KEQIANG-INT'L INSTITUTIONS LEADERS-ROUNDTABLE MEETING (CN)

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and leaders of six major international economic and financial institutions meet the media after their fourth roundtable meeting in Beijing, capital of China, Nov. 21, 2019. The six leaders are World Bank Group President David Malpass, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, World Trade Organization Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff, International Labor Organization Director-General Guy Ryder, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurria and Financial Stability Board Chairman Randal Quarles. (Xinhua/Yue Yuewei)

BEIJING, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held a roundtable meeting with leaders of six major international economic and financial institutions in Beijing on Thursday.

The six leaders are World Bank Group President David Malpass, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, World Trade Organization Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff, International Labor Organization Director-General Guy Ryder, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurria and Financial Stability Board Chairman Randal Quarles.

Li expressed hope to build consensus, boost confidence and deepen cooperation through the meeting, so as to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of world economy.

It is the fourth roundtable meeting for Li and leaders of the six institutions. This year’s meeting features the theme of “promoting openness, stability and high-quality development of the world economy.”

Source: Xinhua

01/11/2019

Help pours in for Chinese student who lived on 30 cents a day

Wu Huayan on her hospital bedImage copyright FENG VIDEO
Image caption Wu Huayan ate only rice and chillies in order to save money to help her ill brother

Well-wishers have donated almost a million yuan to a Chinese student who was hospitalised after living on 2 yuan ($0.30, £0.20) a day for five years.

The case of Wu Huayan shocked Chinese people after it hit the headlines earlier this week.

The 24-year old woman became seriously malnourished while struggling to study and support her sick brother.

Ms Wu’s story also sparked anger at authorities for failing to recognise her plight and help her much earlier.

After the story was reported, donations began pouring in for the college student in the city of Guiyang – reportedly totalling some 800,000 yuan ($114,000, £88,000).

What is Wu Huayan’s story?

Earlier, this month, the young woman went into hospital after having difficulty breathing, according to Chinese media.

She was only 135cm (4ft 5ins) tall, weighing barely more than 20kg (43 pounds; three stones).

The doctors found she was suffering from heart and kidney problems due to five years spent eating minimal amounts of food. She said she needed to save money to support her sick brother.

Wu Huayan lost her mother when she was four and her father died when she was in school.

She and her brother were then supported by their grandmother, and later by an uncle and aunt who could only support them with 300 yuan ($42, £32) each month.

Most of that money went on the medical bills of her younger brother, who had mental health problems.

This meant Ms Wu spent only 2 yuan a day on herself, surviving largely off chillies and rice.

The siblings are from Guizhou, one of the poorest provinces in China.

Media caption China’s uphill struggle fighting extreme poverty

What has the reaction been?

The case sparked an outpouring of concern – and anger at authorities.

Many people on social media said they wanted to help with donations, and many voiced concern about her college not helping her.

One user called her situation “worse than that of refugees in Afghanistan”, while another pointed to the extravagant cost of China’s 70th anniversary celebrations, saying the money could have been better spent.

Others expressed their admiration at her efforts to help her brother, while also persevering with her studies in college.

Aside from the donations on crowd funding platforms, her teachers and classmates donated 40,000 yuan ($5,700; £4,400), while local villagers collected 30,000 yuan to help her.

Officials released a statement saying Ms Wu had been receiving the minimum government subsidy – thought to be between 300 and 700 yuan a month – and was now getting an emergency relief fund of 20,000 yuan.

“We will keep following the case of this strong-minded and kind girl,” the Tongren City Civil Affairs Bureau said.

“We will actively co-operate with other relevant departments to solve the problem according to the minimum living standard and temporary assistance responsibility that the civil affairs department bears.”

How bad is poverty in China?

The case of Wu Huayan has echoes of a story from 2018 when a Chinese boy arrived at school with his hair full of frozen ice.

Dubbed “Little Wang”, his story also went viral, leading to international donations from people impressed by his resilience, and shocked at his poverty.

Wang, a left-behind migrant childImage copyright PEOPLE’S DAILY

While China’s economy has skyrocketed over the past decades, poverty has not disappeared, and inequality has grown.

One major reason cited is the huge divide between rural and urban areas.

According to the bureau, the per capita disposable income of a household in the capital Beijing was 57,229 yuan ($8,090; £6,300) in 2017.

As a point of comparison, in rural region of Guizhou where Ms Wu lives, that figure is around 16,703 yuan.

China has moved from being “moderately unequal in 1990 to being one of the world’s most unequal countries,” according to a 2018 report by the International Monetary Fund.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics in 2017, 30.46 million rural people were still living below the national poverty line of $1.90 a day.

China has previously pledged to “eliminate” poverty by 2020.

Source: The BBC

18/10/2019

China economy: Third quarter growth misses expectations

China’s economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the third quarter as it struggled with a US-led trade war and softer domestic demand.

In the three months to September, the economy expanded 6% from a year earlier, official figures showed.

The result fell just short of expectations for 6.1% growth for the period.

The slowdown comes despite government efforts to support the economy, including measures such as tax cuts.

The latest figures mark a further loss of momentum in the world’s second largest economy, which had already seen growth languishing at its slowest pace in around three decades.

The rate remained within the government’s target range for annual growth of between 6% and 6.5%.

The strength of the Chinese economy is closely watched as slowing growth can have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

The country has become a key engine of growth in recent decades. Its healthy demand for a range of products, from commodities to machinery, has supported growth around the world.

Some analysts worry that a sharp slowdown in China could hurt an already sluggish world economy and increase the risk of a recession.

Chart on China GDP

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said pressure on the Chinese economy “should intensify in the coming months”.

He said more intervention by policymakers to support the economy was likely “but it will take time for this to put a floor beneath economic growth”.

What challenges does China face?

China has been fighting a trade war with the US for the past year, which has created uncertainty for businesses and consumers.

At the same time, it faces domestic challenges including a swine fever outbreak that has fuelled inflation and hit consumer spending.

A woman works in a shoe factory in ChinaImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption China accounted for 16% of global gross domestic product in 2018, according to the McKinsey Global Institute

This week the International Monetary Fund trimmed its 2019 growth forecast for China to 6.1% from 6.2% due to the long-running trade dispute and slowing domestic demand.

But there have been some signs of progress toward resolving the trade battle, with the US and China reaching a “phase one deal” earlier this month.

The government has sought to help the economy through tax cuts and by taking measures to boost liquidity in the financial system.

Still, some analysts say the government has become more cautious in providing stimulus amid growing concerns about China’s rising debt pile.

Presentational grey line
Analysis box by Karishma Vaswani, Asia business correspondent

Any analysis of China’s economic data has to come with a caveat: Many economists believe the actual figures are much lower than what we are told, but it’s the trajectory of growth and signalling from the government that you should pay attention to.

The fact that the growth figures have come in below market expectations indicate that China’s economy is hurting more than many thought.

There were signs from China that these numbers were going to be worrying. Earlier this week, Premier Li Keqiang made the unusual move to warn local officials that they must do “everything” to make sure they hit growth targets for this year.

China’s economy is being hit on three fronts: The US-led trade war, slowing demand at home and rising domestic challenges including the outbreak of swine fever that has dealt a huge blow to its pork farmers. It’s also pushed up prices for consumers.

China’s slowdown is nothing new. But these challenges pose new headaches for policymakers who are trying to manage the slowdown. The country’s political stability depends on economic security – and over the last forty years, that’s what the Communist Party has delivered. They’re under pressure to keep that contract.

Source: The BBC

10/05/2019

Trade war: Trump raises tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods

The US has more than doubled tariffs on $200bn (£153.7bn) worth of Chinese products, in a sharp escalation of the countries’ damaging trade war.

Tariffs on affected Chinese goods have risen to 25% from 10%, and Beijing has vowed to retaliate.

China says it “deeply regrets” the move and will have to take “necessary counter-measures.”

It comes as high-level officials from both sides are attempting to salvage a trade deal in Washington.

Only recently, the US and China appeared to be close to ending months of trade tensions.

China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed the latest US tariff increase on its website.

“It is hoped that the US and the Chinese sides will work together… to resolve existing problems through co-operation and consultation,” it said in a statement.

Tariffs are taxes paid by importers on foreign goods, so the 25% tariff will be paid by American companies who bring Chinese goods into the country.

Chinese stock markets rose on Friday, with the Hang Seng index up less than 1% and the Shanghai Composite more than 3% higher.

However, earlier in the week stock markets had fallen after US President Donald Trump flagged the tariff rise on Sunday.

The US imposed a 10% tariff on $200bn worth of Chinese products – including fish, handbags, clothing and footwear – last year.

The tariff was due to rise at the start of the year, but the increase was delayed as negotiations advanced.

What will be the impact of the tariff rise?

The US-China trade war has weighed on the global economy over the past year and created uncertainty for businesses and consumers.

Even though Mr Trump has downplayed the impact of tariffs on the US economy, the rise is likely to affect some American companies and consumers as firms may pass on some of the cost, analysts said.

Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, said: “It’s going to be a big shock to the economy.

“Those are all US companies who are suddenly facing a 25% increase in cost, and then you have to remember that the Chinese are going to retaliate.”

China's Vice Premier Liu He (C) poses for a photo with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (R) and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (L) at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on March 29, 2019Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption US and Chinese officials have held several round of talks in an attempt to strike a deal to end the trade war.

In a statement, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said it was committed to helping both sides find a “sustainable” solution.

“While we are disappointed that the stakes have been raised, we nevertheless support the ongoing effort by both sides to reach agreement on a strong, enforceable deal that resolves the fundamental, structural issues our members have long faced in China.”

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned that the trade dispute escalation threatened jobs across Europe.

“There is no greater threat to world growth,” Mr Le Maire told CNews. “It would mean that trade tariffs go up, fewer goods would circulate around the world… and jobs in France and in Europe would be destroyed.”

Presentational grey line

‘Serious escalation’ of the trade war

Analysis box by Karishma Vaswani, Asia business correspondent

No breakthrough, and no deal – just, more tariffs.

With this move, US President Donald Trump has effectively dealt a fresh blow to not just the Chinese economy – as he had presumably hoped – but also to US’s.

The previous set of tariffs of 10% on $200bn of Chinese goods have to some extent been absorbed by American importers, but economists say a 25% tariff will be much harder for them to stomach.

They will almost certainly have to pass on that cost to American consumers – and that means higher prices.

Make no mistake, this is a serious escalation – and the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is back on.

This means the rest of us should be prepared for more pain ahead.

Presentational grey line

How will the tariff increase affect negotiations?

Despite this week’s escalation in tensions, talks were held between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday.

A White House spokesman said US officials had agreed with the vice-premier to resume talks on Friday morning, according to media reports.

Even though there had been growing optimism about progress in trade talks recently, sticking points have persisted throughout.

These have included issues around intellectual property protection, how fast to roll back tariffs and how to enforce a deal.

Analysts say the Chinese are still willing to negotiate to retain the moral high ground and because they recognise the importance of solving the trade war.

“A trade war will be bad for China, both the real economy and the financial markets. It will also be bad for the world economy,” said Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“Better for China to play the role of conciliatory statesman than angry retaliator.”

Why are the US and China at odds?

China has been a frequent target of Donald Trump’s anger, with the US president criticising trade imbalances between the two countries and Chinese intellectual property rules, which he says hobble US companies.

Some in China see the trade war as part of an attempt by the US to curb its rise, with Western governments increasingly nervous about China’s growing influence in the world.

Both sides have already imposed tariffs on billions of dollars worth of one another’s goods. The situation could become worse still, as Mr Trump has also warned he could “shortly” introduce 25% duties on $325bn of Chinese goods.

What exactly sparked the US president’s latest actions, which apparently took China by surprise, is unclear.

Ahead of the discussions, Mr Trump told a rally China “broke the deal” and would pay for it.

How the trade war has played out

The International Monetary Fund said the row poses a “threat to the global economy”.

“As we have said before, everybody loses in a protracted trade conflict,” the body which aims to ensure global financial stability said in a statement, calling for a “speedy resolution”.

Source: The BBC

20/04/2019

Xi to address Belt and Road forum next week: FM

CHINA-BEIJING-BRF-PRESS BRIEFING (CN)

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (C) speaks during a press briefing for the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) in Beijing, capital of China, April 19, 2019. The second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation will be held from April 25 to 27 in Beijing, Wang Yi announced Friday. (Xinhua/Zhai Jianlan)

BEIJING, April 19 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping will deliver a keynote speech at the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) to be held from April 25 to 27 in Beijing, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced Friday.

Leaders including heads of state and government from 37 countries will attend the forum’s roundtable summit, Wang told a press briefing.

Wang said 12 thematic forums and a CEO conference would be held on April 25, the opening ceremony and a high-level meeting on April 26, and the leaders’ roundtable on April 27.

Xi will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. He will also chair the leaders’ roundtable and brief media from home and abroad about the outcomes after the roundtable, Wang said, adding that Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan will also hold a welcoming banquet for the leaders and representatives.

According to Wang, the 37 countries are Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Cambodia, Chile, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Singapore, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

The secretary-general of the United Nations and the managing director of the International Monetary Fund will attend the forum, Wang said, adding that senior representatives of France, Germany, Britain, Spain, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the European Union will also participate.

Noting that the BRF is the top-level platform for international cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, Wang said the conference next week would be of landmark significance.

The theme of the second BRF is “Belt and Road Cooperation, Shaping a Brighter Shared Future.” Wang said the main purpose is to promote the high-quality development of Belt and Road cooperation, which is the common aspiration of countries participating in the initiative.

Speaking highly of the fruitful results yielded since the initiative was launched in 2013, Wang said the second BRF was greatly welcomed worldwide with some 5,000 participants from more than 150 countries and 90 international organizations having confirmed their attendance, covering areas from five continents and different walks of life such as government, civil society, business and academia.

According to Wang, this year’s forum will have 12 thematic forums, twice of that during the first forum in 2017, and the CEO conference will be held for the first time. A joint communique will be released after the leaders’ roundtable and other consensus reached during the forum will be issued in a report.

The Belt and Road Initiative, proposed by Xi in 2013, aims at enhancing all-around connectivity through infrastructure construction, exploring new driving force for the world economic growth, and building a new platform for world economic cooperation, according to Wang.

Stressing that Xi and leaders from other countries blueprinted the initiative in 2017, Wang said the progress in the past two years shows that the initiative conforms to the trend of the times featuring peace, development, cooperation and win-win and accords with the common aspiration of openness and joint development of all countries.

“As the host country, we will maintain close communication and coordination with all parties to prepare for the forum with openness, inclusiveness and transparency, upholding the principle of consultation and cooperation for shared benefits,” Wang said.

He said the forum would voice the firm support for multilateralism and an open world economy, enrich the principles of cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative, build a network of partnership, and establish more mechanisms for high-quality development.

Bilateral, trilateral and multilateral cooperation has been reinforcing each other under the initiative, laying a solid foundation for a closer and more wide-ranging partnership, he said.

Wang said China will showcase the outcomes and introduce the measures of its reform and opening-up to the world, adding that this will allow China to share the dividends of its economic growth, promote the Belt and Road Initiative, and bring more opportunities to the development of all countries as well as the building of the Belt and Road.

“I believe that the forum will inject stronger impetus into the world economy, open even broader horizon for the development of the countries, and contribute to the building of a community with a shared future for humanity, ” said Wang.

Source: Xinhua

25/02/2019

Trump to delay further tariffs on Chinese goods

Donald Trump and China's Vice Premier Liu He in the Oval OfficeImage copyrightAFP
Image captionPresident Trump met China’s Vice Premier Liu He on Friday

President Donald Trump has announced that the US will delay imposing further trade tariffs on Chinese goods.

The rise in import duties on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% was due to come into effect on 1 March.

Mr Trump said both sides had made “substantial progress” in trade talks, which sent Chinese stocks up nearly 5%.

He added that he was planning a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida to cement the trade deal if more progress was made.

A report from China’s official news agency Xinhua also noted “substantial progress” on specific issues such as technology transfer, intellectual property protection and agriculture.

Mr Trump’s decision to delay tariff increases on $200bn (£153bn) worth of Chinese goods was seen as a sign that the two sides are making progress on settling their damaging trade war.

Last week, Mr Trump noted progress in the latest round of negotiations in Washington, including an agreement on currency manipulation, though no details were disclosed.

Sources told CNBC on Friday that China had committed to buying up to $1.2 trillion in US goods, but there had been no progress on the intellectual property issues.

What has happened in the trade war so far?

Mr Trump initiated the trade war over complaints of unfair Chinese trading practices.

That included accusing China of stealing intellectual property from American firms, forcing them to transfer technology to China.

The US has imposed tariffs on $250bn worth of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated by imposing duties on $110bn of US products.

Mr Trump has also threatened further tariffs on an additional $267bn worth of Chinese products – which would see virtually all of Chinese imports into the US become subject to duties.

US and China's tariffs against each other

The trade dispute has unnerved financial markets, risks raising costs for American companies and is adding pressure to a Chinese economy that is already showing signs of strain.

It has also stoked fears about the impact on the global economy.

Last year, the International Monetary Fund warned the trade war between the US and China risked making the world a “poorer and more dangerous place”.

Source: The BBC

Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India