Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China ordered on Saturday that anyone in Wuhan working in certain service-related jobs must take a coronavirus test if they want to leave the city.
The order comes after the central city, where the coronavirus emerged late last year, lifted a 70-day lockdown that all but ended the epidemic there.
People in Wuhan work in nursing, education, security and other sectors with high exposure to the public must take a nucleic acid test before leaving, the National Health Commission said in an order.
The government of Hubei province, of which Wuhan is capital, will pay for the tests, the commission said.
Since the city relaxed its lockdown restrictions people who arrived in there before Chinese New Year, when the virus was peaking in China, are allowed to go back to their homes.
People working in other sectors aiming to leave Wuhan are encouraged to take voluntary tests before going.
Within seven days of arrival at their destinations, people who can present test results showing they do not carry the virus, as well as a clean bill of health on a health app, can go back to work.
Everyone else will have to spend 14 days in quarantine before returning to work.
Authorities have worked with the China’s tech giants to devise a colour-based health code system, retrieved via mobile app, that uses geolocation data and self-reported information to indicate one’s health status.
Wuhan will speed up its efforts to investigate asymptomatic coronavirus cases and confirm the presence of antibodies in people, which might suggest immunity, the commission said.
Wuhan, which accounts for 60% of infections in China and 84% of the death toll as of Saturday, has been testing inhabitants aggressively throughout the virus’ breakout and many companies had already been asking workers from the city to undergo tests before resuming work.
Wuhan revised up its death toll from the coronavirus by 1,290 on Friday, taking the city’s toll to 3,869, because of incorrect reporting, delays and omissions, especially in the chaotic early stages of the outbreak, authorities said.
China national death toll is 4,632 from 82,719 cases.
“Doctors and nurses are people who saved me from cancer and gave me strength in the darkest time. I need to return the favour,” says Li Yan, a food delivery rider based in Beijing.
Mr Li was diagnosed with lymph cancer in 2003, when he was just 17 years old. He recovered from the disease and has been full of gratitude ever since for the medical workers who nursed him back to health. With China in a national lockdown, food delivery firms found themselves in hot demand providing meals for residents stuck at home to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
As a delivery rider for Meituan, one of China’s biggest food delivery firms, Mr Li saw an opportunity to repay the medical professionals he admires by providing them with food and drinks as they worked tirelessly on patients across the city. “Given my past experience, I felt I needed to do something for them in return during the virus outbreak,” he adds.
Beijing is a city of 21 million residents, and Mr Li covers its Tongzhou district, where there are a handful of hospitals with fever clinics, one of which is a designated hospital for Covid-19 treatment. “Many might have concerns delivering for the hospital, but I’ve chosen to deliver for them more often. I just think of the local residents and medical workers who need us. I can’t leave them being hungry. It’s not for money.”
Before the outbreak in China, he delivered more than 50 orders on an average day. But during the first ten days after the coronavirus outbreak in late January, the number of orders dropped to less than 20, as some restaurants were closed. The outbreak also coincided with the Chinese New Year period which is normally a low season.
“By mid-February when the situation was brought more under control, and people’s concerns and fears gradually began to ease, orders started to be restored. I can deliver over 40 orders a day now.”
Image copyright LI YAN
During this time, Meituan brought in a contactless delivery option which allowed food to be dropped off at designated points to avoid contact between customers and riders. “When I called customers to explain, some initially didn’t understand and wanted to cancel the order. But gradually people grew more understanding and began to welcome the contactless approach.”
Empty streets
China was in lockdown for more than two months, although restrictions are now beginning to be lifted. It will still take time before a sense of normalcy returns.
“I remember when the coronavirus first broke out, it was hazy for a few days in Beijing. Streets were empty and stores were closed. An ambulance or a delivery rider occasionally drove by. It felt like I was living in a different world.”
Mr Li says restaurants have started to re-open and people have begun coming back to work in the office since mid-February. Orders are still lower than normal but are improving.
“I miss the hustling Beijing which used to filled with traffic, the days when I could smell car exhaust when I stop at crossroads, the times when I had to walk all the way up to the 6th floor to deliver food, and even times when I was late for a delivery.”
Image copyright LI YAN
When the virus first broke out, face masks and alcohol disinfectant were the most ordered items along with supermarket groceries. “Grains, rice, cooking oil, vegetables, fruits, and solid, packaged food that lasts long. Orders often came in big sizes and transaction prices at around 200 yuan [£23; $28] to 300 yuan on one order.”
Being a food delivery rider, Mr Li feels he can not only give back to the medical community but to the city’s vulnerable too.
“I once received an order that came with a note saying the customer is a 82-year-old who lives alone and couldn’t get downstairs to pick up the food so the rider needs to enter the residential community and deliver food to the door. I had to spend some time communicating with security and finally was allowed in. The door was open when I arrived, and I put the bowl of wontons [a type of dumpling] on the table.”
Tips have increased from happy customers during the pandemic as a result. “Many more send me thank-you notes in the Meituan app and tell me to take care.”
Image copyright LI YAN
Keeping clean
Mr Li has a new routine now which involves lots of disinfecting and temperature checks. “I get my temperature checked dozens of times everyday now, before entering shopping malls, at restaurants, and returning home to the residential compound I live in. I also bring with me disinfectant sprays, a towel in my scooter and use disposable gloves when delivering to areas with reported confirmed cases.”
While he’s providing a vital service, is Mr Li worried about the risk of infection? “I did have worries when the virus spread and was at its worst time here but I feel like I’ve already been there, given what I went through in the fight against cancer.
“I’ve learnt to take things easy, look at the bright side of things and always seek strength in a dark time. As long as I take sufficient precautions, masks, gloves, disinfectants and everything, and follow advice from disease control experts, I think the possibility of getting the virus is pretty low.”
And with a seven-month pregnant wife at home, Mr Li is looking forward to happier times.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indore is a bustling commercial city
In early March, 40-year-old Ravi Dosi, a chest specialist in India, saw a baffling surge in patients with respiratory problems at outpatient clinics.
“There was almost a 50% jump in patients with upper respiratory issues and sore throat. They were not responding to antibiotics. Testing was still low and we didn’t really know what was going on,” Dr Dosi, who works at Sri Aurobindo Institute of Medical Sciences, a 1,156-bed private medical college in the central city of Indore, told me.
Less than a fortnight later, Dr Dosi began seeing an uptick in admissions of Covid-19 patients. Around the end of March, the hospital was receiving 28 infected patients every day.
They had dry cough, fever, and difficulty breathing. Their blood oxygen levels were low. They were reporting loss of taste and smell.
In the first wave of patients, nearly a dozen came from far-flung districts, more than 150km (93 miles) from Indore, a bustling commercial city in Madhya Pradesh state. The state has now become a hotspot, with nearly 400 confirmed infections out of the more than 6,400 infections and nearly 200 deaths across the country so far.
By the second week of April, Dr Dosi and his team of 100 doctors and nearly an equal number of nursing staff working 24/7 in three shifts, were treating 144 Covid-19 patients. (Thirty-one had been treated and sent home already.)
A total of 38 patients were in intensive care. Twenty-one of them were critical. There had been seven deaths. “We are handling the largest number of Covid-19 patients in India,” Vinod Bhandari, a surgeon and chairman of the hospital, told me.
Doctors now believe that the infection was spreading in the community long before the government admitted to it, and testing slowly ramped up. Until two weeks ago, Indian health authorities had been denying community transmission.
Image caption The hospital in Indore has more than 140 patients
Now a new study by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) using surveillance data from 41 labs in the country has hinted at community transmission: 52 districts in 20 states and union territories reported Covid-19 patients. Some 40% of the cases did not report any history of international travel or contact with a known case. (The survey was based on swabs collected from nearly 6,000 patients who tested positive between 15 February and 19 March.)
Back in the hospital in Indore, the doctors are battling the surge in infections.
Three isolation wards spread over two floors floors are stacked with patients. (The hospital has earmarked 525 beds for Covid-19 patients.) Isolation wards have younger patients with mild infection, while elderly patients with more severe symptoms are in intensive care. The oldest patient is a 95-year-old man, and the youngest is a four-month-old boy.
The team of doctors handling patients includes chest specialists, anaesthetists, microbiologists, and dermatologists. There are patients with a lot of underlying medical conditions – diabetes, hypertension, even cancer – so all the specialists have been called in to help with the treatment.
Dr Dosi wakes up early, puts on protective gear – scrubs, face masks and shields, N95 masks, gowns, double gloves and shoe covers – before going on his rounds of the patients. Doctors say they are not facing a shortage of gear yet.
They are using 22 ventilators to help the critical patients breathe, and also providing oxygen supplies to others using nasal cannulas (nose prongs).
In the isolation wards, patients are given oral medication – antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (commonly known as HCQ), an anti-malarial drug – and directed to maintain social distancing and wash their hands regularly.
Image caption The isolation wards are packed with patients
“I have never seen a challenge and crisis like this in my career. I have heard stories about an outbreak of plague in Surat [in 1994]. But this seems to be much bigger. The biggest challenge is to keep hopes alive and be positive,” says Dr Dosi.
Keeping hopes up for patients in isolation can be taxing. Three tests, say doctors, are being done for the infection – if the first test comes out positive, the patient remains in isolation for two weeks, and is tested twice on two days after the quarantine period. If the last two tests come back negative, the patient is discharged. If not, the patient has to stay in isolation for another two weeks. “It is a tough grind, mentally,” says one doctor.
For the last three weeks, Dr Dosi has been living in the hospital, away from his wife, two sons and parents. His father is a retired pathologist. They communicate via hurried video calls, between his frantic trips to the isolation wards and intensive care.
I ask him when does he expect this to “get over”, so that he can go home.
“In a couple of weeks,” he says. “The lockdown should have helped to slow down the infection.”
Dr Dosi is alluding to the strict 21-day lockdown India imposed on 24 March to halt the spread of the infection.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Health officials have been denying community transmission
Things are getting better, he says.
“I am getting 10 patients for admission in isolation wards, and two patients severe enough for intensive care every day now. Earlier this week, it was 50:50.”
It is possibly too early to hazard a guess about when admissions will slow down to single digits. As more people are tested, the number of patients can easily rise again.
It’s been unrelenting, Dr Dosi says.
Early, on Friday, I sent him a text to find out what was going on.
MUNICH (Reuters) – One January lunchtime in a car parts company, a worker turned to a colleague and asked to borrow the salt.
As well as the saltshaker, in that instant, they shared the new coronavirus, scientists have since concluded.
That their exchange was documented at all is the result of intense scrutiny, part of a rare success story in the global fight against the virus.
The co-workers were early links in what was to be the first documented chain of multiple human-to-human transmissions outside Asia of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
They are based in Stockdorf, a German town of 4,000 near Munich in Bavaria, and they work at car parts supplier Webasto Group. The company was thrust under a global microscope after it disclosed that one of its employees, a Chinese woman, caught the virus and brought it to Webasto headquarters. There, it was passed to colleagues – including, scientists would learn, a person lunching in the canteen with whom the Chinese patient had no contact.
The Jan. 22 canteen scene was one of dozens of mundane incidents that scientists have logged in a medical manhunt to trace, test and isolate infected workers so that the regional government of Bavaria could stop the virus from spreading.
That hunt has helped Germany win crucial time to build its COVID-19 defences.
The time Germany bought may have saved lives, scientists say. Its first outbreak of locally transmitted COVID-19 began earlier than Italy’s, but Germany has had many fewer deaths. Italy’s first detected local transmission was on Feb. 21. By then Germany had kicked off a health ministry information campaign and a government strategy to tackle the virus which would hinge on widespread testing. In Germany so far, more than 2,100 people have died of COVID-19. In Italy, with a smaller population, the total exceeds 17,600.
“We learned that we must meticulously trace chains of infection in order to interrupt them,” Clemens Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients, told Reuters.
Wendtner teamed up with some of Germany’s top scientists to tackle what became known as the ‘Munich cluster,’ and they advised the Bavarian government on how to respond. Bavaria led the way with the lockdowns, which went nationwide on March 22.
Scientists including England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty have credited Germany’s early, widespread testing with slowing the spread of the virus. “‘We all know Germany got ahead in terms of its ability to do testing for the virus and there’s a lot to learn from that,’” he said on TV earlier this week.
Christian Drosten, the top virologist at Berlin’s Charite hospital, said Germany was helped by having a clear early cluster. “Because we had this Munich cohort right at the start … it became clear that with a big push we could inhibit this spreading further,” he said in a daily podcast for NDR radio on the coronavirus.
Drosten, who declined to be interviewed for this story, was one of more than 40 scientists involved in scrutiny of the cluster. Their work was documented in preliminary form in a working paper at the end of last month, intended for The Lancet. The paper, not yet peer-reviewed, was shared on the NDR site.
ELECTRONIC DIARIES
It was on Monday, Jan. 27, that Holger Engelmann, Webasto’s CEO, told the authorities that one of his employees had tested positive for the new coronavirus. The woman, who was based in Shanghai, had facilitated several days of workshops and attended meetings at Webasto’s HQ.
The woman’s parents, from Wuhan, had visited her before she travelled on Jan. 19 to Stockdorf, the paper said. While in Germany, she felt unusual chest and back aches and was tired for her whole stay. But she put the symptoms down to jet lag.
She became feverish on the return flight to China, tested positive after landing and was hospitalised. Her parents also later tested positive. She told her managers of the result and they emailed the CEO.
In Germany, Engelmann said he immediately set up a crisis team that alerted the medical authorities and started trying to trace staff members who had been in contact with their Chinese colleague.
The CEO himself was among them. “Just four or five days before I received the news, I had shaken hands with her,” he said.
Now known as Germany’s “Case #0,” the Shanghai patient is a “long-standing, proven employee from project management” who Engelmann knows personally, he told Reuters. The company has not revealed her identity or that of others involved, saying anonymity has encouraged staff to co-operate in Germany’s effort to contain the virus.
The task of finding who had contact with her was made easier by Webasto workers’ electronic calendars – for the most part, all the doctors needed was to look at staff appointments.
“It was a stroke of luck,” said Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients. “We got all the information we needed from the staff to reconstruct the chains of infection.”
For example, case #1 – the first person in Germany to be infected by the Chinese woman – sat next to her in a meeting in a small room on Jan. 20, the scientists wrote.
Where calendar data was incomplete, the scientists said, they were often able to use whole genome sequencing, which analyses differences in the genetic code of the virus from different patients, to map its spread.
By following all these links, they discovered that case #4 had been in contact several times with the Shanghai patient. Then case #4 sat back-to-back with a colleague in the canteen.
When that colleague turned to borrow the salt, the scientists deduced, the virus passed between them. The colleague became case #5.
Webasto said on Jan. 28 it was temporarily closing its Stockdorf site. Between Jan. 27 and Feb. 11, a total of 16 COVID-19 cases were identified in the Munich cluster. All but one were to develop symptoms.
All those who tested positive were sent to hospital so they could be observed and doctors could learn from the disease.
Bavaria closed down public life in mid-March. Germany has since closed schools, shops, restaurants, playgrounds and sports facilities, and many companies have shut to aid the cause.
HAMMER AND DANCE
This is not to say Germany has defeated COVID-19.
Its coronavirus death rate of 1.9%, based on data collated by Reuters, is the lowest among the countries most affected and compares with 12.6% in Italy. But experts say more deaths in Germany are inevitable.
“The death rate will rise,” said Lothar Wieler, president of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases.
The difference between Germany and Italy is partly statistical: Germany’s rate seems so much lower because it has tested widely. Germany has carried out more than 1.3 million tests, according to the Robert Koch Institute. It is now carrying out up to 500,000 tests a week, Drosten said. Italy has conducted more than 807,000 tests since Feb. 21, according to its Civil Protection Agency. With a few local exceptions, Italy only tests people taken to hospital with clear and severe symptoms.
Germany’s government is using the weeks gained by the Munich experience to double the number of intensive care beds from about 28,000. The country already has Europe’s highest number of critical care beds per head of the population, according to a 2012 study.
Even that may not be enough, however. An Interior Ministry paper sent to other government departments on March 22 included a worst-case scenario with more than 1 million deaths.
Another scenario saw 12,000 deaths – with more testing after partial relaxation of restrictions. That scenario was dubbed “hammer and dance,” a term coined by blogger Tomas Pueyo. It refers to the ‘hammer’ of quick aggressive measures for some weeks, including heavy social distancing, followed by the ‘dance’ of calibrating such measures depending on the transmission rate.
The German government paper argued that in the ‘hammer and dance’ scenario, the use of big data and location tracking is inevitable. Such monitoring is already proving controversial in Germany, where memories of the East German Stasi secret police and its informants are still fresh in the minds of many.
A subsequent draft action plan compiled by the government proposes the rapid tracing of infection chains, mandatory mask-wearing in public and limits on gatherings to help enable a phased return to normal life after Germany’s lockdown. The government is backing the development of a smartphone app to help trace infections.
Germany has said it will re-evaluate the lockdown after the Easter holiday; for the car parts maker at the heart of its first outbreak, the immediate crisis is over. Webasto’s office has reopened.
All 16 people who caught COVID-19 there have recovered.
‘I felt excited and proud of myself,’ says restaurant owner and former volunteer ambulance driver Xiang Yafei
‘I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine,’ he says
Wuhan restaurant owner Xiang Yafei says he wasn’t afraid to be a coronavirus vaccine guinea pig. Photo: Handout
With more than 1.5 million confirmed cases around the world and over 88,000 deaths, the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus is hotting up.
According to the World Health Organisation, about 35 companies and academic institutions are currently working on candidate products. Among the front-runners are China’s CanSino Biologics and Moderna Therapeutics in the United States, both of which have begun phase one clinical trials.
In China, those tests, which started on March 19, involve 108 volunteers from Wuhan, the city in which the virus that causes Covid-19 was first detected.
Among them is 30-year-old restaurant owner Xiang Yafei, who spoke to the South China Morning Post about his experiences so far.
Why did you apply to be a vaccine trial volunteer?
I had been doing various voluntary jobs since the end of January when Wuhan was put under lockdown. In the middle of March, one of my friends who knew about the vaccine study asked if I would be interested in joining.
At first I was afraid because there was uncertainty [about the vaccine]. I asked around and some of my friends said there was some risk to being a candidate as I’d be injected with some kinds of virus, but I felt better after I did some research about it online.
Before joining the clinical trials, Xiang worked as a volunteer ambulance driver. Photo: Handout
Also, because the vaccine was developed by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences [a research unit of the People’s Liberation Army] and CanSino, I thought its safety should be guaranteed, as I have confidence in the PLA because several of my relatives are former soldiers. So I agreed to join the trial but didn’t tell my parents because I didn’t want to worry them.
I went to the research team’s office on March 16 and filed my application – that was before they officially announced they were recruiting volunteers on the internet. While I was at the office, I was lucky to meet Major General Chen Wei, the team leader, who explained about the development of the vaccine and assured me that it wouldn’t damage my body. That boosted my confidence.
China ‘leads world in coronavirus research’, followed by US
8 Apr 2020
When did you receive your injection and how did you feel at that time?
I was given mine on the morning of March 19 and immediately put into quarantine for 14 days at a PLA facility. My number in the volunteer group is 006, meaning I was the sixth person to get the vaccine. Before the injection, I underwent a strict physical check-up. I later learned that more than 5,200 people had applied to be volunteers.
Receiving the vaccine was no different to any other injection I’d had before in my life. I didn’t feel any pain and it only lasted about 10 seconds.
But in my heart, I felt excited and proud of myself. I understand that the vaccine will be an important part in battling this coronavirus and testing it is part of the preparations before it can be put on the market.
Xiang (right) said team leader Chen Wei (left) told him about the development of the vaccine and assured him he would come to no harm. Photo: Handout
As volunteers, our job is to work together with the scientists. After all, academician Chen [the major general is also a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering] and six members of her team have also been injected with the vaccine, and she was the first person to receive it.
They didn’t show any bad symptoms, so at that moment, I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine.
And how has your health been since receiving the vaccine?
I had a fever, 37.6 degrees, for the first two days. It was like catching a normal cold, with symptoms of fatigue and drowsiness. But from the third day, my condition improved and I was basically in good health.
The 108 volunteers are divided into three streams, with each receiving either a low, medium or high dose of the drug. I was in the low group so only got one dose. Volunteers in the medium group also got one and the high group were given two shots. As far as I know, everyone was fine after receiving their injections.
When will your trial result be available?
After my quarantine period ended on April 2, I was given a CAT scan and the researchers took a sample of my blood for testing. They said it would be two weeks before they could tell if there were coronavirus antibodies in my bloodstream.
I am not sure if they will tell me the result, but over the next five months I have to do four more blood tests to see if I have antibodies and how long they might remain in my blood.
What did you do to keep yourself entertained during the quarantine period?
It was just rest for me. Before then I’d been a volunteer ambulance driver in Wuhan, working every day taking coronavirus patients to hospital. I’d been really busy for more than a month, so the 14-day quarantine period gave me a chance to relax and catch up on some sleep.
I really enjoyed my time there thanks to the meals I was given, which were nutritious and varied.
The volunteers had to stay in their rooms and we were not allowed to visit each other. We were also told to check our temperature every day and to report any symptoms. I read books and exercised in my room. Some of the volunteers practised calligraphy, some played football with their toilet paper rolls, some jogged, some composed songs, and some made videos about their life in quarantine and uploaded the clips to social media. We did everything just in our own rooms.
Chinese firm CanSino Biologics is one of the front-runners in the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Photo: Handout
So what was it like working as an ambulance driver?
It was a race against time trying to get people to hospital as quickly as I could. But I felt a real sense of purpose.
At first, I didn’t want to do such work. I was scared because all the patients had been confirmed or were suspected of being infected, and they were contagious.
I was told that no one wanted to be an ambulance driver, but I had a licence to drive a minivan so I decided to do it. I think we young people should make a contribution to society, especially during this difficult time and in our home city and home province, so I applied.
Also, [each day at work] I took a gourd with me. It is called hulu in Mandarin and has auspicious implications in Chinese, as hu sounds similar to fu, which means good luck.
How was your restaurant business affected by the epidemic?
I lost about half a million yuan (US$70,000) because of it. I decided to shut my restaurant down on January 21, two days before the official lockdown, because there had been rumours it was coming and I wanted my workers to be able to leave Wuhan and return to their hometowns.
Right now I’m making preparations to reopen my restaurant, which means a lot of cleaning and disinfecting, and thinking about serving all my customers again.
So how did you feel when the lockdown was lifted on Wednesday?
The situation in Wuhan is getting better. We are proud of what we did for this city. We hope the coronavirus cases can drop to zero soon and our lives can get back to normal.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than a billion people have been staying at home during the lockdown
Will India extend its rigorous 21-day lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus beyond its end date next week? By all accounts, yes.
On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.
Now, more than two months after the first case of Covid-19 was detected in the country, more than 5,000 people have tested positive and some 150 people have died. As testing has ramped up, the true picture is emerging. The virus is beginning to spread through dense communities and new clusters of infection are being reported every day. Lifting the lockdown could easily risk triggering a fresh wave of infections.
A harsh lockdown is certain to slow down the disease. Virologists I spoke to believe India is still at an early stage of the infection. The country still doesn’t have enough data on the transmissibility of the virus or even how many people could have been infected and recovered to develop adequate herd immunity. (It is slowly beginning finger prick blood tests to look at the presence of protective antibodies.)
More than 250 of India’s 700-odd districts have reported the infection. Reports say at least seven states have a third of all infections, and want the lockdown extended. Six states have reported clusters of rapidly growing infections – from the capital Delhi in the north to Maharashtra in the west and Tamil Nadu in the south.
Economic fallout
Not surprisingly, the lockdown is already hurting the economy. Many of the early hotspots are economic growth engines and contribute heavily in revenues to the exchequer. Mumbai, India’s financial capital and Maharashtra’s main city, accounts for more than a third of overall tax collection. The densely populated city has reported more than 500 cases and 45 deaths, and numbers are steadily rising. Authorities say the infection is now spreading through the community. Mumbai has made wearing face masks mandatory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has ramped up testing during the lockdown
Many of these hotspot clusters are also thriving manufacturing bases. The spread of infection means that they will be under lockdown for a longer period of time.
The services industry, which generates almost half of India’s GDP, is also likely to remain shut for some more time. Construction, which employs a bulk of migrant workers, will remain similarly suspended. The unemployment rate may have already climbed to more than 20% after the lockdown, according to a report by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.
For the moment, economists say, the government will have to prioritise farming over everything else to ensure the livelihoods of millions and secure the country’s future food supplies.
Half of India’s labour force work on farms. The lockdown happened at a time when a bumper winter crop had to be harvested and sold, and the rain-fed summer crop had to be sowed. The immediate challenge is to harvest and market the first crop, and secure the second.
Moving trucks to pick up produce and take them to markets, with adequate social distancing and hand washing will be something the government will have to move on quickly.
“The immediate challenge is to ensure that rural India is not hit,” says Rathin Ray, an economist. “Realistically, a complete lockdown cannot be continuously maintained beyond early May. We don’t have a choice but to reopen gradually after that.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has been under a lockdown from 24 March
There is little doubt about that. For his part, SK Sarin, who heads a government advisory panel on combating the disease, says the lockdown can be only eased in a “graded manner in areas that are not hotspots” and that the hotspots remained cordoned off.
Like other affected countries, India will have to prepare itself for what Gabriel Leung, an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, describes as several rounds of “suppress and lift” cycles.
During these periods “restrictions are applied and relaxed, applied again and relaxed again, in ways that can keep the pandemic under control but at an acceptable economic and social cost.”
Also, Dr Leung observes, “how best to do that will vary by country, depending on its means, tolerance for disruption and its people’s collective will. In all cases, however, the challenge essentially is a three-way tug of war between combating the disease, protecting the economy and keeping society at an even keel”.
It is now clear that shutdowns need to continue until transmission has slowed down markedly, and testing and health infrastructure has been scaled up to manage the outbreak.
Experts from the southern state of Kerala, a striking outlier that is containing the infection thanks to a transparent government and a robust public health system, say it isn’t time to lift the lockdown yet and have recommended a three-phase relaxation.
For most countries, easing the lockdown is a tricky policy choice. It sparks fears of triggering a fresh wave of infection and presents the inevitable trade-off between lives and livelihoods. French Prime Minister Edouard Phillipe, says relaxing the lockdown in his country is going to be “fearsomely complex”. In a crisis like this, according to his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte, leaders have to “make 100% of the decisions with 50% of the knowledge, and bear the consequences.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s financial capital, Mumbai, is emerging as a hotspot
It is going to be tougher for India with its vast size, densely packed population and enfeebled public health system. Also, no country in the world possibly has so much inter-state migration of casual workers, who are the backbone of the services and construction industries.
How will India manage to return these workers to their work places – factories, farms, building sites, shops – without a substantial easing of public transport at a time when crowded trains and buses can be a vector of transmission and easily neutralise the gains of the lockdown? Even allowing restricted mobility – allowing social distancing, temperature checks and passenger hygiene – would put considerable pressure on the public transport system.
The policy choices are fiendishly tough, and the answers are far from easy. India bungled the lockdown by not anticipating the exodus of millions of migrant workers from cities. The weeks ahead will tell whether the fleeing men, women and children carried the infection to their villages. The country simply cannot afford to make similar mistakes again while trying to relax the lockdown. Nitin Pai of The Takshashila Institution, a think tank, believes states should be left to decide on easing restrictions, and decisions “should be based on threat [of infection], which should be determined by extensive testing”.
This week Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the “situation in the country is akin to a social emergency”. His government now needs make sure that the looming threat to the nation’s health and economic progress is tackled skilfully.
The patients were all returning Chinese citizens who had flown from Moscow to Vladivostok, a Russian city around 100 miles south.
All the new patients were taken to hospital, with two in a serious condition.
In addition, another 86 people in Suifenhe – who came via the same route – were classed as “asymptomatic” but positive for the virus, which China counts separately.
What has Suifenhe done?
The border was closed to people on Tuesday, the local government said, although cargo can continue. Russia closed its border with China in February.
People in the city have been told to stay at home, although the lockdown isn’t as severe as Hubei province experienced. One person per house can shop for essentials every three days.
At the same time, the new hospital – in an existing building – is due to open this weekend, intended for patients with mild symptoms.
“Of course I’m very scared,” one woman who runs a bakery shop told the BBC.
“We don’t leave the house now. Many people already left the city. But we can’t do that, because we have a shop need to take care of.”
Image copyright SOVFOTOImage caption This picture from 2005 showed the extent of Russian timber exports passing through Suifenhe railway station
Meanwhile, a member of staff at a restaurant in the city said it was normally their high season, with around 1,000 customers a day.
Instead, they were told to close earlier this week, with “no idea” when they can open again.
But the staff member was not critical of the government. He said the lockdown made him feel “secure” – and that he was “very confident” the government would look after the situation.
What is the situation in the rest of China?
China’s recorded rate of Covid-19 infections has slowed dramatically in recent weeks.
On Wednesday, people were allowed to leave Wuhan – where the outbreak emerged – for the first time in 11 weeks if they were deemed virus-free.
There were 221 inbound and outbound flights, with more than 7,000 people leaving and 4,500 arriving. More than half a million used public transport, state media reported.
But although people from Wuhan can leave, they still face restrictions in other cities. In Beijing, for example, they will be tested upon arrival, according to local media.
Even if they pass, they will then be quarantined for 14 days – and tested again – before being released.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s railways are hoping to ease the burden on hospitals
India is preparing for a potential surge in Covid-19 patients by tapping into an unusual resource: its trains, which power the world’s fourth biggest rail network.
The country suspended its passenger trains for the first time after it announced a three-week lockdown on 25 March to contain the coronavirus. As of Wednesday, it had reported 4,643 active cases and 149 deaths, and the numbers are rapidly increasing.
“We, at the railways, thought: how can we contribute?” its spokesman, Rajesh Bajpai, told the BBC. “So we came up with this idea and everyone liked it.”
Work has already begun to convert 5,000 train coaches into quarantine or isolation wards, which amounts to 40,000 beds. And the railway ministry says it’s prepared to convert 15,000 more coaches.
The Indian railways – as the ministry is known – is a behemoth. Largely constructed during British rule, it’s still the mainstay of India’s public transport, and includes some of the world’s busiest urban rail systems. It transports 23 million passengers a day and its 12,000 trains crisscross 65,000km (40,389 miles) of tracks, connecting the remotest parts of India.
Mr Bajpai says the coaches can be spared as they are mostly trying to convert older ones, and passengers will be fewer than ever in the coming months even if restrictions are eased.
He adds that this is not unusual for the railways, which already runs several “special” trains, from luxury trains to exhibition trains to a hospital train, complete with operation theatres.
“The coach is a shell and inside, you can provide anything – a drawing room, a dining room, a kitchen, a hospital.”
A looming crisis?
And India may well need the extra beds.
States have already turned all sorts of spaces – sports centres, stadiums, wedding venues, hotels, resorts – into quarantine or isolation centres. But officials fear they will run out of space as the country ramps up testing.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India suspended all passenger trains last month
For every person who tests positive, there are scores more who need to be traced, quarantined and, if necessary, isolated. But isolation at home is not always an option in India’s joint family households – and especially not in its densely-populated slums.
“There are so many options available and this [the coaches] is one of the options,” Mr Bajpai says.
He doesn’t foresee them being used until beds in existing quarantine or isolation centres are filled. But, he adds, they will keep them ready with the necessary facilities.
That includes converting one of the two toilets in each coach into a “bathing room”, providing oxygen cylinders in every coach, and modifying all the cabins so they can hold medical equipment. And then there are measures that are specific to Covid-19 – such as replacing taps that turn with those that have long handles, and fitting dustbins with foot pedals.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption It takes up to three days to turn a coach into an isolation ward
The ministry has also ordered extra coat hooks and mosquito nets for every cabin, and has instructed officials to make sure that charging points are working, the upholstery “is in good condition” and “broken panels are replaced”.
The coaches are being readied in 130 different locations across the country, but it’s yet to be decided where they will be stationed.
Mr Bajpai says it’s up to states to decide which stations they want the coaches in. But that in itself is a process because the coaches need regular water and electric supply.
And there are other concerns too. Summer has begun and large parts of India record scorching temperatures, often more than 40C. And the coaches that are being converted are not air-conditioned.
“The patient will be very uncomfortable. Doctors and nurses will be wearing protective gear, and they will find it very difficult,” says Vivek Sahai, a former chairman of the railway board.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Staff member of Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR) prepare train coaches to convert them into isolation wards for COVID-19 patients.
He also says not everyone might be comfortable squatting to use Indian-style toilets; and he wonders if all the designated coaches have a proper system of waste management. (Indian coaches are designed to dispose of human waste onto the tracks although new technologies have begun to be adopted in recent years.)
“I am not saying it cannot be done but they have to take care of these things,” he says. “But if anybody can do it, it’s the railways.”
However, some experts say that this by itself is not going to help solve India’s problems.
“You don’t just need space,” says Dr Sumit Sengupta, a pulmonologist. “We need thousands of doctors and nurses if you really have to make a dent.”
India is severely short of both, and at least three hospitals have been sealed this week alone after members of the staff tested positive.
Media caption As cases of coronavirus rise and the virus hits India’s congested slums, will the country cope?
“Why isolate someone who has symptoms when there is no treatment? Because you don’t want them to spread the infection,” Dr Sengupta says.
But, he adds, the virus is spreading anyway because so many patients are asymptomatic. He says isolating symptomatic patients will not help unless India starts testing aggressively.
“This will work only as part of a larger strategy,” he adds. “Test, trace and isolate. Test should come first.”
Most of the relief fund earmarked to subsidise employees’ wages in affected industries
Lam and ministers slash their salaries following controversy over chief executive’s pay
Many businesses have been forced to close because of the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Winson Wong
More than 1 million Hong Kong workers will have part of their wages paid for by the government under a HK$137.5 billion package of measures to help businesses and residents struggling during the Covid-19 crisis, while the city’s leader and her ministers have vowed to take a pay cut, the Post has learned.
Revealing the massive relief fund on Wednesday, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said HK$80 billion would go towards the wage scheme, targeting coronavirus-hit industries over six months with individual payments capped at 50 per cent of salaries, up to HK$9,000 a month. The employers receiving the lifeline must pledge not to lay off workers, she added.
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Lam said the package, together with other recent pledges of financial relief, would cost a total of HK$287.5 billion, causing the budget deficit to surge from HK$139.1 billion this financial year to HK$276.6 billion, which is equivalent to 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
The relief deal is equivalent in size to 4.6 per cent of the city’s GDP.
Meanwhile, Lam’s monthly salary will fall to HK$390,000 after rising to HK$434,000 last July.
Lam and her 16 ministers had voluntarily agreed to a 10 per cent pay reduction for a year, the chief executive told the press conference.
The HK$137.5 billion deal – which was given the green light by her Executive Council earlier in the day – aims to safeguard employment and ease the woes of businesses, with the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the city reaching 960 on Wednesday.
A source said: “The scheme is aimed at coping with the economic hardship brought by the pandemic in the next six months. More than 1 million employees from various sectors, on top of those directly affected by the government’s social-distancing measures, will benefit.”
Staff affected by the latest social-distancing rules – including businesses forced to close – will benefit from the wage scheme, along with employees in sectors such as tourism and construction, two other sources said.
Some businesses set to benefit would be those related to education, such as tutorial centres, school bus operators and PE coaches contracted from outside, according to one.
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“The government is drawing reference from the British government’s recent practice of paying 80 per cent of salaries of employees in affected industries, although the percentage and cap are lower in Hong Kong,” one source said.
In an unprecedented step announced last month, the UK government said the state would pay grants covering up to 80 per cent of salaries if companies kept workers on the payroll rather than laying them off.
In Singapore, the government has offered to pay 75 per cent of workers’ April wages, capped at S$4,600 (HK$25,000) per person.
The Japanese government on Tuesday approved its largest-ever economic relief package, which includes grants of up to 2 million yen (US$18,350), for small and medium-sized businesses whose revenues had more than halved.
Hongkonger recalls weeks of lockdown in Wuhan, China, the first epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic
With the Hong Kong government sitting on reserves of more than HK$1.1 trillion, the Professional Commons think tank said the authorities should spend HK$200 billion on businesses and workers, including handing HK$7,500 a month over six months to sacked staff and covering 80 per cent of salaries up to a monthly maximum of HK$25,000 for workers at struggling firms and the self-employed.
Wuhan, where the first cases of the novel coronavirus were detected, is ending a 76-day lockdown
A day before the lockdown was fully lifted, Tencent announces a slew of initiatives focused on helping to revive the digital industry in the city
Passengers leaving Wuhan city are pictured at the Hankou Railway Station in Wuhan city, central China’s Hubei province, on Wednesday morning, April 08, 2020. Photo: SCMP/Simon Song
A day before China lifted a months-long lockdown of Wuhan city, the initial epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings pledged to invest in digital government, online education and artificial intelligence (AI) in the city, among other fields.
“During the epidemic, Tencent has been supporting Hubei and Wuhan’s fight against the virus through funds and technology,” the company best known for its gaming business said in a statement posted on Tuesday on WeChat. “In the future, we will also fully support Wuhan’s post-pandemic reconstruction and continue to support the development of Wuhan’s digital industry.”
China’s major tech companies have played a big role in the fight against the coronavirus, and are now playing their part in the economic recovery of Wuhan and other areas that have suffered under extended travel restrictions and business closures.
and Pinduoduo each announced their own initiatives to help revive sales of farm goods from Hubei as the province emerges from its months-long lockdown.
Popular mobile payments app Alipay also created a dedicated section for Wuhan merchants to allow users to buy from merchants in the city, and offered loans to small local merchants in need of financial support, according to an Alipay statement. Alipay is operated by Ant Financial, an affiliate of Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post.
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Wuhan, an industrial powerhouse for the steel, semiconductors and automotive sectors, is emerging from an unprecedented lockdown which began on January 23 and prevented people from moving in and out of the city.
Since restrictions began easing gradually in late March, business activity has shown signs of recovery: Tencent’s mobile payment platform WeChat Pay recorded a 162 per cent increase in offline transactions in a 10-day period from March 25, compared to the same period the previous month, according to a separate statement by Tencent on Wednesday.
Searches for “work resumption certificates” – which businesses need to submit to local authorities to prove their staff can safely restart work – also increased 320 per cent on Baidu, China’s biggest search engine, in the past month, Baidu said in a report on Wednesday.
Tencent declined to provide specific details regarding the size of its latest investment in Wuhan or a timeline for its implementation, but said in the statement that it will involve closer cooperation with city authorities in the areas of digital government, education, smart mobility, AI and cybersecurity to help the city with its digital industries.
Among these initiatives, it will push ahead with a plan to build a headquarters focusing on digital industries in Wuhan, specifically digitalisation for the government and smart city initiatives.
It will also establish a base in Wuhan for its online education initiatives, set up an AI lab and cybersecurity academy and build a school focusing on smart mobility in collaboration with Chinese carmaker Dongfeng Motor Corporation, the company said in the statement.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 