- American destroyer’s mission comes a week before Taiwanese president officially starts second term in office
- Increased military activity in the region could have unintended consequences but unlikely to lead to direct conflict, observer says
The United States sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday as the Chinese military embarked on more than two months of live-fire naval drills off the mainland’s northern coast.
The passage by the USS McCampbell was the sixth through the strait by a US Navy vessel this year and comes a week before Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, is expected to be sworn in for a second term in office.
According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer transited the narrow body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China from north to south “in a routine mission”.
“It is continuing its southward voyage and the military is monitoring its movement through the intelligence it has gathered,” the ministry said.
In a statement on its Facebook page, the US Pacific Fleet said the McCampbell transited the Taiwan Strait as part of ongoing operations in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysts said the passage was a response to the People’s Liberation Army’s increasing military activity near Taiwan and in the wider region.
“This will become a new routine as a kind of US security commitment to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Soong Hseik-wen, professor of strategic studies and international relations at National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan.
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The PLA has staged a series of war games, including fly-bys and warship transits through the strait, in recent months in response to what Beijing sees as growing pro-independence moves by the Tsai government and her party. China has also warned the US against supplying weapons to the island, which Beijing considers to be a wayward province that must return to the mainland fold, by force if necessary.
Mainland China has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai was first elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China policy, which Beijing says must be the foundation for any talks.
The PLA has embarked on 11 weeks of naval exercises off the coast of Tangshan in northern China, barring all other vessels from a 25km (15 mile) radius of the drill area, according to the China Maritime Safety Administration.
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Both Beijing and Washington have ramped up military activities near Taiwan in recent months during the coronavirus pandemic, moves that some observers say run the risk of miscommunication.
Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, professor of strategic studies and international relations at Tamkang University in Taipei, said no one could exclude the possibility of unintended incidents when both the US and the mainland were stepping up their presence in the region.
“Rational analysts would however argue that the two nuclear powers are not likely to engage in or escalate to direct military conflict,” he said.
Huang said he believed cross-strait relations would worsen during Tsai’s second term in office, which begins on May 20.
“The already damaged relationship between Taiwan and mainland China has worsened since the pandemic mainly due to travel bans and Taiwan’s increased international visibility,” he said.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Kyodo News reported that the PLA was planning a large-scale beach landing exercise near Hainan province in August, simulating a takeover of the Pratas Islands, which are controlled by Taiwan and also known as the Dongsha Islands.
In Taipei, Major General Lin Wen-huang said Taiwan was monitoring the PLA movements and “has contingency plans in place for the South China Sea to strengthen combat readiness and defence preparedness on both the Spratly and Pratas islands”.
Taiwan’s coastguard also announced on Wednesday that its Pratas Islands Garrison was scheduled to conduct an annual live-fire exercise in June to ensure the “effectiveness of various mortar and machine-gun positions”.
But he agreed that both countries were unwilling, unable, and unlikely to have a real conflict.
“They are both bluffing. It’s a fake crisis,” he said. “A pandemic always ends or prevents a war if you look at history.
“I also don’t believe the PLA would want to take over the Dongsha or Taiping islands [in the South China Sea], because these islets alone are not worth a military campaign and all the consequences of that. The only target valuable enough for the PLA is Taiwan.”
Source: SCMP
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