Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
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The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
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At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
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According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
People’s Liberation Army resumes drills, including flotilla exercise in Miyako Strait
Military observers say China is demonstrating its ability while virus hampers US aircraft carriers
The Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group has resumed activities after being interrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Handout
The People’s Liberation Army has resumed regular military drills at home and overseas, moves that military experts say are a show of strength and control over
The ground forces, navy and air force of the PLA’s five theatre commands started military drills this month, with some exercises involving joint operations, according to several reports published by the PLA Daily in recent days.
As the epidemic surged in China, the PLA was forced to suspend all large-scale joint drills because of disruptions to transport and allocations of military resources around the country.
China’s People Liberation Army conducts drills. Photo: Handout
On Saturday, one of the large-scale drills resumed. A six-ship flotilla, led by the
, sailed through the Miyako Strait – just 330km (205 miles) due east of the northernmost tip of Taiwan – on its way to the western Pacific.
“In the future, the Chinese navy will continue to organise similar training schedules to accelerate and improve the combat capability of its aircraft carrier strike groups,” navy spokesman Gao Xiucheng was quoted as saying in PLA Daily.
It is the first time the Liaoning has reappeared in waters near Taiwan since sailors on four United States aircraft carriers sent to the Indo-Pacific region were infected by the coronavirus, making the Chinese carrier the only vessel of its kind active in the western Pacific.
The reappearance of the Liaoning strike group prompted Taiwan to send warships, while the US sent a P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft to follow the Chinese flotilla. Taiwanese media reported that the aircraft was the seventh American warplane sent to the region in a week.
Hong Kong-based military analyst Song Zhongping said the Liaoning’s appearance near Taiwan was not only a demonstration of military deterrence to the independence-leaning ruling party in Taiwan, but also a gesture to show off the PLA’s greater ability to contain the coronavirus pandemic than its American counterpart.
“Compared with the PLA, the United States military is weaker and lacks experience in dealing with non-traditional military operations such as battles against epidemics, because those aspects are mostly carried by the US National Guard in various states,” Song said.
“Since the threat of Covid-19 is decreasing, the PLA needs to return to their regular training to prepare for a war to reunify Taiwan by force when necessary. The possible war is very complicated as it [would] involve dealing with foreign militaries, such as US and Japanese navies.”
Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said that the PLA so far had been able to control the infection sources and channels among soldiers and officers, but that the threat of Covid-19 remained.
In pictures published by the PLA Daily, PLA officers do not wear masks while conducting drills.
Both Zhou and Song said that the Covid-19 pandemic had hit the US Navy and left a power vacuum in the region but that the PLA would not use the chance to attack Taiwan.
“Using force to take Taiwan back is still the last step, not the first priority,” Zhou said. “How to manage and maintain Taiwan’s prosperity is the most important issue of the cross-strait relationship.”
Song said the PLA still believed the US Navy had maintained a degree of combat capability even though hundreds of US sailors were infected by the novel coronavirus.
Move will help air force with patrols and combat-readiness near Taiwan and in the East and South China seas, according to observers
Markings including national flag and service insignia will also be standardised under new guidelines
Chinese military aircraft will get “low observable” coatings and standardised markings. Photo: Xinhua
Chinese military aircraft are to be painted with “low observable” coatings and standardised markings under new guidelines, a move observers say will assist with operations near Taiwan and in the East and South China seas.
The guidelines require markings including the national flag and service insignia to be gradually standardised on both active and future warplanes, the official PLA Daily newspaper said earlier this month.
The move comes two years after the Chinese navy started experimenting with its J-16 strike fighter, using a dark grey low-visibility coating instead of blue-grey, and replacing its service insignia with a new design, according to military magazine Ordnance Industry Science Technology.
Some of the navy’s only active aircraft carrier-based fighter jets, the J-15s, have also been given new coatings and markings, according to the People’s Liberation Army’s official website.
PLA Daily said the move aimed to give Chinese warplanes a combat advantage as they “will be less likely to be detected by both the naked eye and military radar”. It said the new guidelines would be gradually implemented this year.
Some of the aircraft carrier-based J-15 fighter jets already have the new coatings. Photo: AFP
Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said the move would help the air force improve patrols and combat-readiness as it carried out more drills near the Taiwan Strait and in the East and South China seas.
China’s air force and navy have sent warplanes including Su-35 fighter jets, H-6K strategic bombers and advanced KJ-2000 airborne early warning aircraft to conduct “encirclement” drills around Taiwan since 2018, as Beijing applies pressure on the self-ruled island that it sees as part of its territory. But none of the aircraft seen in photographs of the exercises had low-visibility coatings or standardised markings, as used on the navy’s J-16s and J-15s.
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“Aircraft used by the PLA Air Force have different coatings and markings because they are still in a transitional period,” Wong said. “Its counterparts like Taiwan have learned from Western countries like the United States to standardise coatings and markings and designs [since the 1990s].”
Beijing insists that Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949, remains part of China and they will eventually be reunited – by force if necessary.
The PLA also regularly sends aircraft to monitor freedom of navigation operations by the US Navy in the South China Sea. Beijing has territorial disputes in the resource-rich waterway with countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.
A military insider in Beijing said the US move to send hundreds of its new-generation F-35 stealth fighter jets to South Korea and Japan had also pushed the PLA to upgrade the coatings on its aircraft.
“These coatings are a highly technical area, and China puts a tremendous amount of resources into research on this every year,” said the insider, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “The coating that’s used on China’s first stealth fighter jet, the J-20, is more advanced than they used on the Lockheed Martin F-22s, but it’s not yet at the level of the F-35s.”
Hong Kong-based military expert Song Zhongping said military aircraft used to have a bright red national flag and service insignia that made them more detectable on radar systems, or even with the naked eye.
“The red they used is striking, but it’s not in line with the ‘low observable’ requirement for all fighter jets,” said Song, who is a military commentator for Phoenix Television.
“All fighter jets must have stealth and low-visibility capabilities, and the coatings and markings on them are part of how they can do this and meet requirements for combat.”
Best pilots from carrier-borne squadrons sent to naval academy for warship training to meet ‘urgent need’ for commanders
They had to pass more than 10 assessments – from political thought to psychological testing – before they could join the programme
China’s second aircraft carrier, the Type 001A, is expected to be operational by the end of this year. Photo: Sina
The Chinese navy is training fighter pilots experienced in carrier-borne operations to command and manage its warships as it seeks to expand its global naval power.
Its best pilots from carrier-borne squadrons – including some qualified to fly fighter jets during both daytime and at night – were sent to a naval academy for warship combat and command training late last month, PLA Daily reported on Monday.
It did not say how many pilots had been selected, but all of them were required to pass more than 10 assessments – ranging from political thought to psychological testing – before they could join the training programme, the official People’s Liberation Army newspaper said.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said the programme would focus on command and control skills for air and sea operations, and some of the pilots would ultimately be selected to command China’s new aircraft carrier strike groups.
As part of its ambition to build a powerful blue-water navy that can operate globally, China plans to have four aircraft carriers in service by 2035. Its second aircraft carrier – the first built in China, known as the Type 001A – is undergoing sea trials and is expected to be operational by the end of this year.
Work on the more modern Type 002 carrier started two years ago and a naval source told the South China Morning Post that construction of a second Type 002 vessel could begin as early as 2021.
But they will need suitable carrier pilots to take command.
“It’s quite an urgent need for the Chinese navy to have carrier group commanders – like its Western counterparts do – who are capable of commanding different warships and aircraft in modern joint-operation combat situations,” Li said.
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“Aircraft carrier strike groups are supposed to sail on the high seas and into unfamiliar territory, so aside from having a background as naval aviators, all commanding officers should have a broad set of skills and knowledge – from foreign languages and international maritime law to air and sea operations – to help them make good decisions,” he said.
Other navies, such as the United States Navy, require more experience for the role – commanding officers of US aircraft carriers must be former naval aviators as well as former captains of different types of warships.
For example, Captain Pat “Fin” Hannifin, commanding officer of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, has over 2,800 flight hours in 33 different aircraft under his belt. He was also executive officer on another aircraft carrier and commander of an amphibious transport dock.
Rear Admiral Li Xiaoyan, the first captain of China’s only active aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was a pilot with no experience on carrier-borne aircraft, though he did have experience on a destroyer and frigates. He was replaced by Zhang Zheng just days after the Liaoning formally joined the PLA Navy in 2012, and later by Liu Zhe – neither of whom had naval aviator backgrounds.
Li Xiaoyan was one of the first group of 10 pilots selected for a training programme designed specifically for China’s future aircraft carriers back in 1987. But the whole aircraft carrier plan was suspended in 1998 by premier Zhu Rongji for political and economic reasons, according to China’s Carrier, a book published by China Development Press.
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Naval expert Li Jie said the Chinese navy now had to catch up in terms of training pilots, and especially commanding officers, for its aircraft carriers.
“China resumed the aircraft carrier plan and in 2004 started refitting the hull of the Varyag. But after that first group of pilots was trained in 1987, there was no formal training in air and sea operations because there was no aircraft carrier training platform until 2012,” Li said, referring to the unfinished Admiral Kuznetsov-class vessel China bought from Ukraine in 1998, which became the Liaoning.
He said the latest training programme for commanding officers was a continuation of the one that began more than 30 years ago.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 