Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
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Young people starting out in the jobs market face a hit to their prospects that could endure years after the Covid-19-induced downturn has run its course
A generation of angry youth raises the spectre of political instability
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein had grown used to jam-packed production schedules requiring her to put in long hours and run on little sleep. Until Covid-19 struck.
Today, the talented Indonesian is suddenly free. With five projects on hold and many more potentially cancelled, she now spends her time working on a personal project, doing research for her work and occasionally going for a ride on a bicycle.
“I feel calm and patient although I’m jobless. Maybe because it’s still the third week [of social distancing] and I still have enough savings from my previous work,” said the 26-year-old, who is from Yogyakarta. “But I imagine life will become tougher in the next few months if the situation gets worse.”
Like her, millions of youths are now part of a job market in Southeast Asia that has been ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic. They are the unlucky cohort of 2020 whose fortunes have changed so drastically, so quickly.
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein now spends most of her time at home as her projects have all been frozen due to the spread of Covid-19. Photo: Anita Reza Zein
Just three months ago, many eager graduates were about to partake in a strong economy and possibly land decent pay cheques.
Today, job offers are being withdrawn and hiring halted, leading to a spike in regional youth unemployment in the short term. In the long term, the effects on the Covid-19 cohort could lead to wider social and political problems.
JOB MARKETS SHUT
The virus’ impact on economies and the job market in the region has been swift and devastating. Borders have been slammed shut, workers ordered to stay at home, and thousands of companies closed every week.
The biggest problem is the lack of certainty about how long this will last – the longer the governments keep their countries on lockdown, the worse the economic impact.
In Indonesia, for example, the virus has caused almost 2.8 million people to lose their jobs, according to the Manpower Ministry and the Workers Social Security Agency. Likewise, in Malaysia, an estimated 2.4 million people are expected to lose their jobs, going by data from the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).
is bracing itself for a 5.3 per cent contraction in GDP for the full year, the worst since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
“We think about seven million jobs have been lost already, and the figure will hit 10 million if the outbreak drags on for two to three more months,” said Kalin Sarasin, council member and head of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Lockdown for 34 million people in capital Jakarta as Indonesia fights surge in coronavirus deaths
For young jobseekers, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic could hurt even more, with companies unwilling to open up new jobs for them.
“My clients who were open to fresh graduates previously have realigned searches [for candidates] who have at least one year of experience, as it’s a lot faster for someone with experience to scale up quickly and contribute,” said Joanne Pek, a recruiter at Cornerstone Global Partners’ Singapore office.
For many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) such as Singapore-based restaurant chain The Soup Spoon, saving jobs – rather than recruiting – is the priority.
“We don’t want to let anyone go during this period, so we’re focused on protecting jobs,” said co-founder and director Benedict Leow, who employs some 250 workers.
THE COVID-19 COHORT
The looming economic downturn could have distinct consequences for the Class of 2020 that will outlast the economic downturn itself.
For one thing, the paucity of jobs could result in the Covid-19 cohort becoming a “lost generation” of sorts, said Achim Schmillen, a senior economist at the World Bank Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice.
“Research from around the globe shows that graduating in a recession can have significant and long-lasting impacts that can affect the entire career. In particular, it can lead to large initial earnings losses which only slowly recede over time,” he said.
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Economics professor Jeff Borland of the University of Melbourne said that international studies showed that what happened to people when they first entered the labour market would affect them for the rest of their working lives.
“Many international studies have shown that trying to move into employment during a major economic downturn cuts the probability of employment and future earnings for a decade or more.
“Why this occurs is less well-established. Reasons suggested include being forced to take lower-quality jobs, losing skills and losing psychological well-being,” he said in a piece published on The Conversation website.
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This could create “lasting scarring” on the graduates this year, said labour economist Walter Theseira.
“If their careers start badly, it would affect their earnings for a number of years because they would lack the same experience as peers who started in a more secure position,” the associate professor of economics at Singapore University of Social Sciences said.
Shrinking salaries and the downsizing of companies mean that graduates might have to seek out professions outside their areas of study to survive, said Grace Lee Hooi Yean, head of the Economics Department at Monash University, Malaysia.
She said youth unemployment in the country, which stands at 11.67 per cent, could rise sharply.
“This looming crisis could trap a generation of educated and capable youth in a limbo of unmet expectations and lasting vulnerability if the graduates are not ready to face reality and adapt to the new challenges,” she said.
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This is fast becoming the reality for final-year medical student Rebecca K. Somasundaram, who has been left without a job due to the pandemic.
After being offered a residency programme at a top specialist hospital in Kuala Lumpur, she was notified a month ago that her placement had been made void until further notice. This has thrown the 24-year-old’s plans into disarray as she was hoping to enter the workforce soon to pay off her student debts. Her plans to get married next year have also been put on hold temporarily.
“I am in constant talks with the hospital to see if there is any way I can join them soon but seeing how things are unfolding so quickly, I am slowly losing hope,” she said.
Over in Indonesia, the pandemic will trigger job losses on a national scale. To combat this, the government would need to introduce strong fiscal measures and beef up its social protection policies, said the country’s former minister of finance Muhamad Chatib Basri.
Many people on lower incomes tend to work in the extraction industry, such as mining and palm oil, and these are the first industries hit due to the global slowdown.
“The rich will be able to brave the storm, but the poor have no means to do so,” he said.
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SPECTRE OF 1997
With partial lockdowns imposed in the capital of Jakarta, more needs to be done to ensure that vulnerable citizens have access to food and financial support.
Without government intervention, economic woes could soon translate into political instability, a scenario last seen in the Asian financial crisis.
In 1997, waves of discontent sparked racial riots in Indonesia that toppled the country’s long-time strongman Suharto, while in Thailand a political crisis created the conditions for populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra to rise.
Rising discontent could have serious implications at the ballot boxes, warned Basri, who said young voters were a key voting bloc for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
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In last year’s general elections, Jokowi proved a hit among the lower-educated youth who had benefited from the creation of largely unskilled jobs during his tenure.
“With more young people expected to become unemployed in the coming months, things will only get worse from here,” said Basri, who added that the country’s youth unemployment stood at almost 20 per cent in 2018.
Indonesia, which has 268 million people and is Southeast Asia’s largest economy, had 133 million workers as of last August, according to official data.
Close to 10 per cent or about 12.27 million are university graduates but among this group, about 5.67 per cent or some 730,000 were unemployed. This was higher than the country’s overall unemployment rate at that time, which was 5.28 per cent.
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GETTING IT RIGHT
Economists say, however, that all is not lost. Much will depend on policy and how governments focus on battling the virus on the public health and economic fronts. They point to Singapore, which has launched a robust response to the crisis.
On April 6, the Singapore government announced its third budget in two months to help companies and households tide over the crisis. In all, Singapore’s total stimulus package, which aims to save jobs and keep funds flowing to companies, will cost the government a massive S$59.9 billion (US$42 billion).
The Singapore government was also preparing for a labour market that would be reluctant to hire fresh graduates on a full-time basis, said Theseira.
“There are plans to implement large-scale subsidised traineeships, which may be more palatable to companies which are worried about taking on permanent headcount this year,” he noted. “As the economic situation improves, they can be converted to permanent positions.”
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While jobs were being created for fresh graduates, many would still have to temper their expectations, such as taking jobs with lower starting pay, said DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah.
“There are still some jobs to go around. There are still some companies that may need workers. But they will need to be realistic,” he said.
For instance, despite the downturn, Singapore telco Singtel expects to recruit over 300 fresh graduates for various permanent positions this year, according to Aileen Tan, the company’s Group Chief Human Resources Officer. Many of the new hires will be in new growth areas such as the Internet of Things, analytics and cloud.
The Singtel Comcentre building in Singapore. Photo: Roy Issa
Other companies that continue to hire include those in tech across the region, including e-commerce giant Shopee, food-delivery service Foodpanda and Amazon.
In Australia, Borland suggested helping young people to remain plugged into the labour market through government-funded paid internships, or even offering them loans to go for further studies and prevent a spell of unemployment.
For now, while some young jobseekers are taking a wait-and-see approach, the reality is hitting hard for others.
Final-year National University of Singapore student H.P. Tan had all but secured a job at a public relations firm last month, after three rounds of interviews.
The Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences undergraduate was rejected via an email from the agency, which said that they could no longer hire after Covid-19 started to drastically cut business.
“When I got that rejection, it was a turning point. I didn’t think I would be directly impacted,” said the 23-year-old.
“I also applied to a few other agencies but the response has been slow, so I am now freaking out at the possibility of not being able to find a job after graduation.”
Throughout the world, overworked health care professionals are being infected with Covid-19, yet the Lion City has kept numbers low
Preparation, planning, patient ratios and protective equipment have all played a part. Still, even the best gear cannot guard against discrimination
Medical staff walk to the National Centre for Infectious Diseases building at Tan Tock Seng Hospital in Singapore. Photo: AFP
Uncooperative patients, long hours and a lack of protective equipment are hampering health care workers across the world as they take the fight to the coronavirus, leading many to fall sick themselves.
In Malaysia, a pregnant woman who did not disclose that her father was infected tested positive after giving birth, leading to the shutdown of the entire hospital for cleaning. In the Philippines, nine doctors have died, two of whom had dealt with a patient who lied about her travel history.
In Spain, where more than 5,400 health care workers have been infected, accounting for about 14 per cent of the country’s patients, there are no longer enough workers to care for patients.
In Italy, which has more than 69,000 patients, the virus killed a doctor who had no choice but to work without gloves.
In the United States, which has surpassed China to become the world’s most infected nation with more than 83,000 people testing positive for Covid-19, hospitals are being overrun with patients.
Health care staff in the country say patients are packed into emergency wards and intensive care units (ICUs), further raising the risk of infections. They also report shortages of ventilators, face masks, gowns and shields.
The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on March 7 released interim guidelines saying health care workers exposed to the coronavirus could be asked to return to work as long as they wore face masks and were not showing symptoms, if their employers had no other manpower available.
Malaysian health workers at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Photo: AFP
A REASON FOR OPTIMISM
However, amid all the gloom, Singapore’s experienceis being held up as a reason for optimism. The city state has reported more than 630 cases of infection, all of which are being treated in hospital, yet only a handful of its health care professionals have been infected. What’s more, even these cases, according to Vernon Lee, director of communicable diseases at the Ministry of Health, are thought to have been infected outside the health care setting.
Experts suggest this has been more than just luck, pointing to a case in which 41 health workers were exposed to the coronavirus in a Singapore hospital yet evaded infection.
The workers had all come within two metres of a middle-aged man with Covid-19 who was being intubated, a procedure which involves a tube being inserted into the patient’s trachea. The procedure is seen as being particularly hazardous for health workers as it is “aerosol generating” – patients are likely to cough.
The workers had not known at the time that the man had the virus and all were quarantined after he tested positive. However, on their release two weeks later, none of them had the virus.
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The case has come to widespread attention partly because the workers were wearing a mix of standard surgical masks and the N95 mask, which doctors see as the gold standard as it filters out 95 per cent of airborne particles.
The conclusion, published in The Annals of Internal Medicine this month, was this: “That none of the health care workers in this situation acquired infection suggests that surgical masks, hand hygiene, and other standard procedures protected them from being infected.”
Surgeon and writer Atul Gawande mentioned the case in an article for The New Yorker on how health care workers could continue seeing patients without becoming patients. He said there were things to learn from Asia and that some of the lessons came out of the “standard public health playbook”. In other words, there is much to be said for social distancing, basic hand hygiene and cleaning regimens.
A health worker in protective gear walks into a quarantine room at a hospital in Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Photo: AFP
COMING TOGETHER
With critical supplies running short in many countries, experts say it is increasingly vital that countries share both knowledge and resources.
To this end, China has been donating personal protective equipment to places including the Philippines, Pakistan and Europe. China’s richest man Jack Ma is donating 1.8 million masks, 210,000 Covid-19 test kits and 36,000 pieces of protective clothing to 10 countries in Asia.
At the same time, doctors are encouraging the Western world to learn from Asia.
Infectious diseases expert Leong Hoe Nam said that being “bitten by Sars” (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003 had prepared Asia for Covid-19, while Western countries were not similarly prepared and hence lacked sufficient protective equipment.
He pointed to how about 2,000 health care workers had fallen sick in China early in the outbreak because workers did not initially have protective gear. The trend reversed as equipment became available.
“Once the defences were up, there were very few health care workers who fell sick at work. Rather, they fell sick from contact with sick individuals outside the workplace,” he said.
Malaysia is a case in point. While it has reported 80 health care workers falling ill, most are thought to be community infections.
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In a webinar organised by Caixin Global on Thursday night, Peng Zhiyong, an intensive care specialist at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, shared how they managed a shortage of personal protective equipment early on in the outbreak by rationing workers to two sets of gear per shift.
Meanwhile, in the Philippines, doctors from Manila’s Chinese General Hospital held a video conference call with doctors in Zhejiang to learn from China’s experience of treating Covid-19 patients.
Crowdsourcing platforms have also been created to share advice. The Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston has released guidelines for treating critically ill patients and its website includes information from Chinese doctors.
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The Jack Ma Foundation has also launched an online platform for doctors and nurses around the world to share knowledge on fighting the virus. “One world, one fight,” it said in a tweet.
Associate Professor Jeremy Lim from the global health programme at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health said it was crucial for countries to work together.
“Viruses don’t respect borders. Countries have to share information and help each other as we are only as strong as the weakest link. Any country can become a reservoir of disease and the world may then be forced to endure a ping-pong of outbreaks over and over again.”
And the advice of Lee, at Singapore’s Ministry of Health? “Practise good hygiene and wash hands regularly.”
Indonesian medical staff administer mass testing for Covid-19 in Bekasi, West Java. Photo: AFP
SINGAPORE, A CASE STUDY
Amid this sharing of advice, it is often Singapore that is held up as an example to replicate. Despite the country grappling with a rising load of Covid-19 patients, most of whom have recently returned to the city state from abroad, its health care system has continued to run smoothly. Doctors say this is because it has been preparing for a pandemic ever since Sars caught it by surprise. During the Sars outbreak, health care workers accounted for 41 per cent of Singapore’s 238 infections.
Consequently its hospitals swung into contingency planning mode early on in the coronavirus outbreak, telling staff to defer leave and travel plans after its first cases emerged.
Meanwhile, its hospitals swiftly split their workforces into teams to ensure there were enough workers if the outbreak worsened, and to ensure workers got enough rest.
Singapore has 13,766 doctors, or 2.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. That compares to 2.59 in the US, 1.78 in China and 4.2 in Germany. Places like Myanmar and Thailand have fewer than one doctor for every 1,000 people.
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“The objective is that you can run essential services with the greatest amount of security. Make sure functional units have redundancy built in, and are separate from each other. It depends on what you feel is sufficient to carry on services if one team is affected, factoring in rest periods and some system of rotation,” said Chia Shi-Lu, an orthopaedic surgeon.
The key is to ensure a good doctor-to-patient ratio and ensure there are enough specialists for the critical work, such as doctors and nurses who can provide intensive care, and know how to operate mechanical ventilators or machines to pump and oxygenate a patient’s blood outside the body.
At the emergency department where paediatrics emergency specialist Jade Kua treats Covid-19 cases in addition to regular emergencies, doctors are split into four teams of 21. Each team takes alternate 12-hour shifts and does not interact with other teams.
“We are in modular teams so the teams move together. So you and I would both do morning, off, night, off, morning off. Together. And then the other teams would do the same and we don’t intermingle,” said Kua.
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Chia, who works at the Singapore General Hospital, said doctors had been split up according to their functions.
“We try not to meet at all with the other teams as much as possible. We’ll just say hi from across the corridor. Meals are the same. All our cafeterias and everything have got social distancing spaced in already,” said Chia, who is also a member of parliament and chairs a shadow committee on health.
Chia said the health care system could also tap on doctors in the private sector.
Not every country has a plan like this. Last year’s Global Health Security Index by the Economist Intelligence Unit found that 70 per cent of 195 countries scored poorly when it came to having a national plan for dealing with epidemics or pandemics. Almost three in 10 had failed to identify which areas were insufficiently staffed. In India, with a population of 1.3 billion, only about 20,000 doctors are trained in key areas such as critical care, emergency medicine and pulmonology.
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In contrast, Singapore published its first Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response Plan in June 2005 and has since honed it to a tee. Hospitals regularly war-game scenarios such as pandemics or terrorist attacks and the simulations are sometimes observed by the Ministry of Health, which grades the performance and recommends areas for improvement.
The plan also covers the need to stockpile equipment to avoid the sort of shortages many countries are now facing, another lesson inspired by Sars when masks, gloves and gowns were in short supply.
In a pandemic preparation paper published in 2008, Singapore public health specialist Jeffery Cutter wrote that Singapore’s stockpile was sufficient to cover at least 5 to 6 months’ use by all front-line health care workers.
During the Covid-19 outbreak, it has also told citizens to not wear masks so it can conserve supply for medical staff.
Having enough protective gear has reassured Singapore’s health care workers such as Kua, a mother of six who blogged about her experience fighting Covid-19. Kua said: “I’m safe and my family is safe.”
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SOMETHING YOU CAN’T GUARD AGAINST
Despite the many positives to emerge from the Lion City, its health care workers are struggling with another problem: discrimination.
While in France, Italy and Britain, residents cheer health care workers from their windows, in Singapore health care workers are seen by some people as disease carriers.
“I try not to wear my uniform home because you never know what kind of incidents you may encounter,” said one Singapore nurse. “The public is scared and wearing our uniforms actually causes quite a bit of inconvenience. One of my staff tried to book a private-hire car to the hospital for an emergency and she was rejected by five drivers.”
There is a similar stigma in India, where the All India Institute of Medical Sciences has appealed to the government for help after health workers were forced out of their homes by panicked landlords and housing societies.
“Many doctors are stranded on the roads with all their luggage, nowhere to go, across the country,” the institute said in a letter.
Lim, from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said the worst human impulses and “every man for himself” attitudes could emerge in crises and “that is exactly why governments have to step in”.
Discrimination could affect both the performance and motivation of health care workers, Lim warned.
Meanwhile, when health care workers are infected, it creates a “triple whammy” threat.
“It means one fewer professional in an already-strained system, another patient to care for and, potentially, a team of colleagues who need to be quarantined,” said Lim.
“We must do everything possible to keep our health care workforce safe and free from Covid-19.” ■
Anyone caught breaking Singapore’s social distancing rules could be jailed from Friday, as the city state ramped up its coronavirus defence and announced the introduction of distance learning for schools.
Under updates to its powerful infectious diseases law, anyone who intentionally sits less than 1 metre away from another person in a public place or on a fixed seat demarcated as not to be occupied, or who stands in a queue less than a metre away from another, will be guilty of an offence.
Offenders can be fined up to S$10,000 (US$6,990), jailed for up to six months, or both. The rules, in place until April 30, can be applied to individuals and businesses.
The news was followed later by an announcement from the education ministry that starting from April, schools will start conducting one day of home-based learning for students per week.
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“The recent spike in imported cases signals a new phase in our nation’s fight against Covid-19. To support further safe distancing, schools will progressively transit to a blended learning model, starting with one day of home-based learning a week,” the ministry said in a statement.
It added schools will remain open for students whose parents are not able to secure alternative childcare arrangements.
Hundreds of thousands of students in Singapore returned to class on Monday after a week of school holidays, despite growing calls for schools to be closed.
Singapore is one of the few jurisdictions in the region that has yet to suspend schools, unlike Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Education Minister Ong Ye Kung had earlier cited scientific evidence, saying that the pneumonia-like Covid-19 illness does not affect the young as much as adults.
Authorities in the city state, however, have said that suspending schools and closing workplaces are among the next steps to be taken should the situation worsen. Singapore has confirmed 683 cases so far, of which 172 have recovered and two died.
Global condom shortage looms amid virus lockdowns
A global shortage of condoms is looming, the world’s biggest producer said, after a coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut down production.
Malaysia’s Karex makes one in every five condoms globally. It has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories in the past 10 days because of the lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus.
That’s already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state health care systems such as Britain’s NHS or distributed by aid programmes such as the UN Population Fund.
“We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” Karex Chief Executive Goh Miah Kiat said this week.
“My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programmes deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”
The other major condom-producing countries are China, where the coronavirus led to widespread factory shutdowns, and India and Thailand, which are seeing infections spiking only now.
Goh said Karex was in the process of appealing to the government for an exemption to operate under specific conditions. Malaysia is approving other essential goods producers to operate with half of their workforce.
“The good thing is that the demand for condoms is still very strong because like it or not, it’s still an essential to have,” Goh said. “Given that at this point in time people are probably not planning to have children. It’s not the time, with so much uncertainty.”
China to ban most foreign arrivals
China has banned most foreigners from entering the country in an effort to block the spread of the coronavirus through imported cases.
With several exceptions, including transit visas and foreigners arriving via Hong Kong and Macau with short-term entry permits, entry visas issued to foreigners will be suspended as an “interim measure”, according to a statement late on Thursday by the country’s foreign ministry.
“In view of the rapid spread of the new coronavirus epidemic worldwide, China has decided to temporarily suspend entry of foreigners with currently valid visas and residence permits in China,” the ministry said.
“This is an interim measure that China has to take in order to respond to the current epidemic situation, with reference to the practice of many countries,” it added. “The Chinese side will adjust the above measures according to the epidemic situation through separate announcements.”
Pakistan aid workers lack basic kit
Pakistan’s biggest charity, famous for its emergency services for the poor, is kitting staff out in raincoats and rubber boots in the battle against the coronavirus as it can’t get hold of proper personal protective equipment, the organisation says.
Pakistan has reported the highest number of coronavirus infections in South Asia, with 1,179 cases and nine deaths, but health experts say there is a lack of public awareness about the virus and the cash-strapped government is ill-prepared to tackle it.
The Edhi Foundation has for decades stepped in to help when government services fail communities and it runs the country’s largest ambulance service.
Now it has had to train dozens of staff on how to handle suspected coronavirus patients. But providing them with proper protection is a problem given a nationwide shortage of the equipment.
“We’ve compromised on certain things and use alternatives,” Facial Edhi, head of the Edhi Foundation, said at his office in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, on Thursday.
“Full aprons are in short supply in the market.”
He said he was confident the raincoats would work just as well.
South Korea pleads with residents to stay indoors
Authorities in South Korea pleaded with residents on Friday to stay indoors and avoid large gatherings as new coronavirus cases hovered close to 100 per day.
South Korea reported 91 new infections on Friday, taking the national tally to 9,332, the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said. The country has reported similar daily numbers for the past two weeks, down from a high of over 900 in late February.
The government has sought to convince a restless public that several more weeks of social distancing and self-isolation may be needed to allow health authorities to tamp down the smaller but still steady stream of new cases.
“As the weather is getting nicer, I know many of you may have plans to go outside,” said Yoon Tae-ho, director general for public health policy at the health ministry. “But social distancing cannot be successful when it’s only an individual, it needs to be the whole community.”
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Italy reports 662 new deaths, with uptick in new cases
Italy is reporting an uptick in new novel coronavirus infections, after four consecutive days in which new cases had decreased.
The country now has 62,013 active cases, a daily increase of 4,492, the Italian Civil Protection Agency said in its bulletin.
On Wednesday the daily variation was 3,491, on Tuesday 3,612, on Monday 3,780, on Sunday 3,957, and on Saturday a record 4,821.
There are also 662 new fatalities, bringing the total death toll to 8,165, while overall infections, including deaths and recoveries, have risen to 80,539, a daily increase of 8.3 per cent.
Recoveries are up by around 11 per cent to 10,361, while the number of intensive care patients – a closely watched figure given the shortage of hospital beds – has risen by 3.5 per cent, to 3,612.
Russia closes all restaurants nationwide
Russia is temporarily closing restaurants nationwide for a nine-day period starting on Saturday to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
Restaurants will still be able to provide delivery services during that time, according to the decree by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, published on his website on Friday.
Russia has reported more than 800 cases of coronavirus, predominantly in Moscow, which has seen at least two virus-related deaths. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has warned that the actual number of cases is probably “significantly more”.
The country has already prohibited regular international flights, and imposed strict quarantine measures for anyone entering the country and anyone who could have been exposed to someone infected with the virus – though has not yet opted to impose lockdown measures like those seen elsewhere.
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First casualty in Kenya
Kenya has recorded its first coronavirus death as a rapid rise in confirmed cases puts Africa’s fragile health systems to the test.
Kenyan Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said a 66-year-old Kenyan man died on Thursday afternoon despite treatment in an intensive care unit.
Kagwe said the man, who arrived into the country on March 13 from South Africa via Swaziland, was a diabetic. Also on Thursday, three women aged between 30 and 61 tested positive for Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, taking the country’s total to 31.
Kenya is the second country in East Africa and the 15th on the continent to confirm a coronavirus-related death. Algeria has the highest death toll in Africa with 25 fatalities, while Egypt has reported 24 and Morocco 11.
About a week ago, the continent of 54 countries had reported fewer than 300 cases. But by Friday Africa had 3,221 confirmed cases and 87 deaths. WHO regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti said on Thursday that the situation in Africa was “evolving very quickly in terms of geographic spread and the increasing number of cases”.
Australian military to enforce quarantine
The Australian military will help enforce the quarantine of travellers returning to the country, with the prime minister unveiling strict new measures and door-to-door checks on Friday to rein in the spread of Covid-19.
With some two-thirds of Australia’s 3,000 Covid-19 cases still linked to overseas travel, Scott Morrison said 14-day home quarantines would now be actively policed with the help of the military.
Thousands of citizens and residents are still arriving in Australia every day and there have been instances of return travellers repeatedly breaking a promise to stay at home.
Morrison said all returnees arriving after midnight Saturday would now be kept in hotels in the city of arrival for the duration of their quarantine.
Those already on Australian soil and under orders to self-quarantine for two weeks will face active checks, he said.
Quarantine measures will be getting “a lot tougher and a lot stricter,” Morrison said, adding the Australian Defence Force would “assist in the compliance with these arrangements.”
Afghanistan to release 10,000 prisoners
Afghanistan will release at least 10,000 prisoners over the age of 55 in an attempt to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, officials said on Thursday.
“The president has issued a decree that several thousand prisoners will be released soon due to coronavirus,” an official in President Ashraf Ghani’s office said.
Those released will not include members of Islamist militant groups the Taliban or Islamic State, and the process will be completed within 10 days, said two government officials.
Afghanistan has reported 91 cases of coronavirus and three deaths. The country’s western Herat province has recorded at least 54 of the 75 total cases reported in the last week.
International aid groups in recent weeks have raised concerns about the possibility of the coronavirus spreading in prisons across Afghanistan.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Many Indians face losing their income and some say they could starve
India has announced a $22bn (£19bn) bailout for the country’s poor to help counter the economic effects of the Covid-19 outbreak.
“We don’t want anyone to remain hungry, and we don’t want anyone to remain without money in their hands,” finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.
The package, which includes free food and cash transfers, was for “those who need immediate help”, she said.
She also said health workers would get medical insurance of up to $66,500.
Correspondents point out that this amounts to just 1% of India’s GDP – in stark contrast to the US and Singapore which are spending about 10% of their GDP on similar packages.
However, this could be just stage one, with similar packages set to be announced later, they added.
India’s economy was already in the midst of a severe slowdown before the country went into lockdown, shutting workplaces, factories and affecting millions of daily-wage and informal workers.
They form India’s vast informal sector, which constitutes a large part of its workforce. The lockdown and social distancing have left many of them with no viable means of getting any income, and many have expressed fears that they could starve.
Growth had slumped to 4.7% last month – the slowest pace in years – as a steep drop in manufacturing affected overall economic health.
Barclays said the total shutdown cost to India would be around $120bn, or 4% of the country’s GDP.
Ms Sitharaman, who is also the head of an economic task force announced by the prime minister, said that workers under an employment guarantee scheme would get a wage increment, and that recipients of other welfare schemes would also get benefits, like free gas cylinders instead of just subsidised ones.
AHMEDABAD, India (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump will be shielded from the sight of slums by a newly built wall when he visits the city of Ahmedabad during a visit to India this month.
A senior government said the wall was being built for security reasons, not to conceal the slum district.
But the contractor building it told Reuters the government “did not want the slum to be seen” when Trump passes by on the ride in from Ahmedabad’s airport.
“I’ve been ordered to build a wall as soon as possible, over 150 masons are working round-the-clock to finish the project,” the contractor said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The government official conceded that the wall was part of a “beautification and cleanliness” drive.
Whatever the reason, the 400-meter-long and seven-feet-high wall will prevent the U.S. leader from getting a glimpse of a slum district that houses an estimated 800 families.
Trump, who has made his pledge to build a wall along the United States’ border with Mexico a feature of his presidency, will visit India on Feb. 24-25 to reaffirm strategic ties that have been buffeted by trade disputes.
He is expected to attend an event dubbed “Kem Chho Trump” (“How are you, Trump”) at a stadium in Ahmedabad along the lines of the “Howdy Modi” extravaganza he hosted for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Houston last September.
Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, Trump quoted Modi as saying “millions and millions of people” would attend the rally.
The event provides Trump, who was impeached in December, with the opportunity to woo the support of hundreds of thousands of Indian-American voters ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
But some slum dwellers whose homes will be cordoned off by the wall in Ahmedabad – the largest city in Modi’s home state of Gujarat – said the government was wasting tax-payer money to hide the poor.
“Poverty and slums are the reality of our life, but Modi’s government wants to hide the poor,” said Parvatbhai Mafabhai, a day worker who has lived there with his family for more than three decades.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions of poor Indians still defecate in the open
Two men in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh have been arrested for allegedly killing two Dalit (formerly untouchables) children who were defecating in the open, police say.
Roshni, 12, and Avinash, 10, were attacked on Wednesday while defecating near a village road, they said.
The children’s family told BBC Hindi that they have no toilet at home.
Millions of poor Indians defecate in the open, which especially puts women and children at risk.
Dalits are at the bottom of the Hindu caste system and despite laws to protect them, they still face widespread discrimination in India.
“The two children were beaten to death with sticks,” police superintendent Rajesh Chandel told BBC Hindi’s Shuraih Niazi. “We have registered a murder case against both the accused. They are being questioned.”
Within hours of the attack early on Wednesday morning, police arrested two upper-caste men – Rameshwar Yadav and Hakim Yadav.
Roshni and Avinash were cousins, but Roshni had been brought up by Avinash’s parents and lived with them.
Avinash’s father, Manoj, says that as a daily wage labourer, he cannot afford to build a toilet at his house. He also says he has been unable to access a government subsidy as part of a flagship scheme to build toilets for the poor.
Media caption The Dalits unblocking India’s sewers by hand
The Swachh Bharat Mission or Clean India programme seeks to end open defecation by increasing toilet infrastructure and improving sanitation across the country. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the program in 2014, he vowed to make India “open defecation free” by 2 October 2019.
Manoj’s village – Bhavkhedi – has been declared “open defecation free”, a tag given by the government to villages and cities have successfully ended open defecation.
Image caption Women who go out at night to defecate are often at risk
Research has shown that while the construction of toilets has increased rapidly, lack of water, poor maintenance and slow change in behaviour have stood in the way of ending open defecation.
But many have praised Mr Modi for highlighting the issue and launching a major scheme to address it – the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation honoured him this week, describing the Swachh Bharat Mission as “a model for other countries around the world that urgently need to improve access to sanitation for the world’s poorest.”
Image copyrightAFPImage captionMillions of Indians remain vulnerable to income shocks
India’s opposition Congress Party has promised to guarantee a minimum income for the country’s poor if it wins the upcoming summer elections.
So will this scheme be a game-changer and bolster the fortunes of the Congress party? (There are rumours that the BJP is primed to announce a similar scheme soon) Or does it risk becoming a handout, fuelled by populism, mired in confusion and blighted by misallocation?
The details of the minimum income plan will be only revealed in the party manifesto, which is due soon.
The Congress’s scheme essentially promises a basic income support for India’s poorest households after fixing an income eligibility threshold. It is also likely to be progressive in nature: if the household is entitled to, say 50,000 rupees ($700; £534) a year, and it already earns 30,000 rupees, it will receive 20,000 rupees as income support. So the poorer the family, the more income support it will get.
Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, a professor of economics at MIT, told me that there is “a lot of sympathy for the minimum income guarantee in purely ethical terms”. But, he says, there will be a lot of challenges in implementing it in a vast and complex country like India.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionThe gap between the rich and poor has widened in India
For one, what happens to India’s massive rural employment guarantee programme? The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA) also promises a minimum income to every rural household by providing at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year. Will the new scheme also count income from the rural programme? What happens if someone stops going for rural work?
“Our research suggests this is where the poor often lose out and the less poor make hay, partly – but probably not mostly – because of corruption, but also because the less poor are better at figuring out how to make claims,” says Prof Banerjee.
Then there’s the problem of what economists call the “moral hazard” – undue risks that people could take if they don’t have to bear the consequences of it.
‘Lack of incentive’
Welfare schemes, many economists believe, can end up trapping people in poverty. One criticism of guaranteed income support is that it reduces the incentive to work – generations of families stay on welfare in the US because there’s no incentive to come out of it.
Economist Vivek Dehejia wonders whether something similar could happen with this scheme. “If you fix a household income eligibility threshold of 10,000 rupees a month to be eligible for income support, what incentive do you have rise above it,” he says.
There are also questions about where India will find the money to support such a scheme – we are talking about hundreds of millions of eligible families who will have to be paid.
India already has more than 900 federally funded schemes – like cheap food, fertiliser subsidies, rural jobs guarantee, crop insurance, student scholarships – accounting for about 5% of the GDP by budgetary allocation. Many of these schemes are marred by leakage, wastage, exclusion of the eligible, and even fraud.
Economists wonder whether the vast amount of money required for the new income scheme will come from pruning subsidies and existing welfare schemes, which are always politically difficult.
“A lot thinking and working has gone into the income scheme,” Praveen Chakravarty, head of the data analytics department of the Congress party, told me. “It is fiscally doable without drastic reduction of existing welfare schemes”.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionGuaranteed basic income is intended to pull more people out of poverty
So the plan is to apparently find money for it through expenditure reduction (trimming wasteful government expenditure?) and “new revenue streams” (new taxes?). Both are going to be daunting tasks.
Vivek Dehejia says the scheme would make financial sense if it subsumes other welfare schemes and subsidies. Otherwise, he says, it will “become another handout, and will not help fix India’s poorly sorted out welfare architecture”.
Clearly, the scheme, inspired in part by the Brazil’s Bolsa Familia or Family Grant to lift people out of poverty will also reignite the debate over cash transfers to the poorest, who, some believe, often do not have enough fiscal knowledge and information to handle money. However. the Indian scheme will be unique because Bolsa Familia is a conditional transfer of money
Test for the state
Supporters of cash transfers say they reduce poverty, give the poor the choice to spend as they think best, targets better, and acts as a buffer against shocks. It also improves financial inclusion, and by helping the poor to consume more, boosts the GDP. Other economists, most notably Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, believe that people in a market driven economy will spend more on private education and healthcare if the state gives them a minimum income.
Any which way, handing out guaranteed income in a vast and complex country in India will remain a formidable challenge, irrespective of the government in the power. It will be a test for the Indian state.
Image captionPiles of garbage are a common sight in Mahul
Tens of thousands of people are fighting to leave Mahul, a heavily industrialised neighbourhood in the western Indian city of Mumbai, saying the toxic pollution there is adversely impacting their health. BBC Marathi’s Mayuresh Konnur and Janhavee Moole report on the residents’ battle to be relocated.
Anita Dhole, 38, was forced to move to a “transit camp” set up by the civic authorities in Mahul in May 2017 after the illegal slum she was living in was demolished. Since then, she says, she has been suffering.
“I have breathing trouble and high blood pressure, and the pollution has also affected my eyesight,” she says.
Hers was one of more than 5,000 families – estimated to be between 30,000 and 50,000 people – that lost their homes in the demolition drive and were offered temporary housing in Mahul. They were told they would be given homes in another Mumbai suburb later but, residents say, Mahul is not fit for living, even for a short time.
Image captionMs Dhole has been living here since May 2017
A former fishing village, it’s now close to oil and petroleum refineries, chemical factories and fertiliser plants.
A report in 2013 by the King Edward Memorial Hospital said that around 67% of people living in Mahul complained of breathlessness several times a month and around 84% of them complained of eye-irritation. In 2015, India’s environment court National Green Tribunal said there was “a perceptible threat to [the] health of residents” in Mahul because of the “prevailing air quality in the area”.
But local municipal authorities say three different surveys by the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board show “that the pollution levels in Mahul are not different from other areas of Mumbai”.
Yet residents blame breathing issues, asthma, skin diseases, tuberculosis and blood pressure-related problems on poor local conditions.
Ms Dhole says her parents fell so sick in Mahul that they soon left for their village.
Image captionSkin infections are common among residents
Shamdas Salve, who also moved to Mahul last year, says his two-year-old son has had a persistent skin infection for the past five months.
“He doesn’t sleep the whole night and keeps scratching. I’ve consulted several skin specialists and changed his medication but he has had no relief. He cries and keeps scratching. He now has marks on his face too.”
His words are echoed by many of his neighbours – 10-year-old Sahil suffers from TB and so does 17-month-old Anshul Tusambad; Maya Goswami, 55, struggles with asthma; and 18-year-old Kavita Subramanyan has low BP and breathing problems.
Besides pollution, residents say they have no access to clean water and sewage facilities and that electricity supply is far from regular. There are also no hospitals or schools nearby. The area is poorly connected with other parts of the city and, as a result, many women have been forced to quit their jobs and stay home.
Image captionOverflowing sewage in Mahul’s transit camp
The transit camp where Ms Dhole lives is actually a block of apartments that goes by the official name of Eversmile layout.
It has dozens of buildings and each is home to 300 congested one-room apartments. The complex is filthy – sewage pipes are broken, gutters are overflowing; electric wires are dangling everywhere; the air is stuffy, mosquitoes abound and rats scurry past us as we walk around the neighbourhood.
Most of these low-cost homes are meant for families who have been relocated because of demolition of unauthorised slums.
Every year, tens of thousands migrate from rural India to Mumbai in search of livelihood and most end up living in illegal shanty towns that often encroach on roads or other city infrastructure.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThousands were relocated to build the Tansa water pipeline
Most of those who were relocated to Mahul, including Ms Dhole, used to live in a slum along the Tansa pipeline – the 160km (99 miles) long water pipeline that runs through Mumbai, carrying water from Lake Tansa. It’s a major source of water for the city.
Just over half of the pipeline is overground and, over the years, unauthorised houses came up alongside it and, in some places, on top of it.
In 2006, a petition was filed in the high court in Mumbai asking the court to order the government to relocate those living in the slums to “ensure that the water, which is used by the citizens of Mumbai, is safe, and that these pipelines do not become a target for persons to attack the citizens of Mumbai”.
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In 2009, the court ruled that there must be a 10-metre gap between the pipeline and the nearest home, which meant that thousands of families had to move out. Their homes were subsequently demolished and they were told to relocate to Mahul.
Many initially refused because of the pollution, but were forced to move as the demolitions continued.
In August, the court said the civic authorities could not force people to move to Mahul and that they must find alternative housing for them or pay rent for those families that did move out.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionResidents have been protesting for months to be moved elsewhere
The protests have intensified in the past two months with many residents of Mahul’s transit camp demonstrating at the site where their homes once stood.
They have also launched a campaign on social media with the hashtag and Twitter handle MumbaisToxicHell – demanding that they are relocated again, this time to a safer and healthier environment.
Residents of Mahul protesting on the streets yet again demanding relocation from the Maha state government. Now even IIT Bombay’s report says the area is not fit to stay. What are you now waiting for? #mumbaistoxichell#wakeupgovt#residentspleadforbetterlife#mirrornow
Residents of Mahul are compelled to sleep under the sky to save their lives from toxic atmosphere of Mahul. They are camping outside their homes since 50 days to save their lives.#MumbaisToxicHell
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