Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Wuhan, a Chinese city of eleven million people, has temporarily shut down its public transport as it tries to halt the outbreak of a new strain of virus.
Those living in the city have been advised not to leave, in a week when millions of Chinese are travelling for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.
The respiratory illness has spread to other parts of China, with some cases in other countries including the US.
There are more than 500 confirmed cases and 17 people have died.
Known for now as 2019-nCoV, the virus is understood to be a new strain of coronavirus not previously identified in humans. The Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus that killed nearly 800 people globally in the early 2000s was also a coronavirus, as is the common cold.
All the fatalities so far have been in Hubei, the province around Wuhan.
Meanwhile, after a day of discussions in Geneva, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) emergency committee has announced it will not yet declare a “global emergency” over the new virus.
Director general Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus said more information was needed about the spread of the infection. The committee of health experts will meet again on Thursday.
A global emergency is the highest level of alarm the WHO can sound and has previously been used in response to swine flu, Zika virus and Ebola.
What measures have been announced?
From Thursday, all flights and passenger train services out of Wuhan have been stopped.
Bus, subway and ferry services all shut down from 10:00 local time (02:00 GMT).
A special command centre in Wuhan set up to contain the virus said the move was meant to “resolutely contain the momentum of the epidemic spreading”.
Those living in Wuhan had already been told to avoid crowds and minimise public gatherings.
State news agency Xinhua said tourist attractions and hotels in the city had been told to suspend large-scale activities while libraries, museums and theatres were cancelling exhibitions and performances.
A Lunar New Year prayer-giving ceremony at the city’s Guiyuan Temple, which attracted 700,000 people last year, has also been cancelled.
The hashtag “Wuhan is sealed off” was trending on Chinese social media website Weibo.
One user said worries about food and disinfectant made it feel like “the end of the world”, while another said they were on the “verge of tears” when Chinese officials announced the shut-down.
The WHO’s Dr Ghebreyesus described the latest measures as “very strong” and said they would “not only control the outbreak, they will minimise spread internationally”.
Chinese officials said the country was now at the “most critical stage” of prevention and control.
“Basically, do not go to Wuhan. And those in Wuhan please do not leave the city,” said National Health Commission vice-minister Li Bin in one of the first public briefings since the beginning of the outbreak.
Like shutting down London before Christmas
By James Gallagher, BBC health and science correspondent
Wuhan is starting to look like a city in quarantine.
Officials had already warned residents not to leave the city and visitors not to come.
Now the reported public transport ban – which includes flights – slams many of the routes in and out of the city shut.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Subways in Wuhan will be temporarily shut
It is a significant attempt to stop the spread of this new virus, which we now know can spread from person to person.
Limiting transport will cut the chance of the virus reaching other cities in China and other countries around the world.
This all comes just as millions of people are travelling across China for the week-long holiday that is Lunar New Year.
If you’re struggling for context – imagine shutting down London in the week before Christmas.
The big question left is the roads – and whether any of Wuhan’s 11 million inhabitants will be able to simply drive away.
The patient in Macau is said to be a businesswoman who arrived from Wuhan over the weekend.
The first US case was confirmed on Tuesday. President Donald Trump said the situation was “totally under control” and that he trusted the information being provided by Chinese authorities.
There have been three cases in Thailand, one in Korea, one in Japan and one in Taiwan.
Although only about 500 cases have been confirmed, calculations by scientists at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London suggest there are 4,000 people sick with the virus in Wuhan.
Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size.
The virus originated in a seafood market in Wuhan that “conducted illegal transactions of wild animals”, authorities said. The market has since been shut down.
BEIJING (Reuters) – The spectre of new confrontation between Pyongyang and Washington hangs over meetings between China, Japan and South Korea this week, with growing risks North Korean actions could end an uneasy detente and upend recent diplomatic efforts.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping separately on Monday. They will then travel to the southwestern city of Chengdu for a trilateral meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Though they are expected to discuss various economic matters, North Korea appears likely to dominate the agenda.
Pyongyang has grown increasingly frustrated that its halt of nuclear and long-range missile tests has not ended the crippling economic sanctions against it. It set a Dec. 31 deadline for the United States to make concessions, but Washington has been unmoved.
Some experts believe North Korea may be readying to test an intercontinental ballistic missile launch soon, which would likely end the 2018 agreement struck by its leader, Kim Jong Un, and U.S. President Donald Trump.
“Safeguarding the stability and peace of the Korean Peninsula and pushing for a political solution to the Korean Peninsula issue are in the interests of China, Japan and South Korea,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui told reporters on Thursday at a briefing on the trilateral meetings.
U.S. special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun met with two senior Chinese diplomats during his two-day visit to Beijing this week, following similar meeting in South Korea and Japan days earlier, as diplomats make last-ditch attempts to prevent new confrontation.
North Korea has not responded to his public call to resume dialogue, however.
“The silence, even after Biegun’s speech in Seoul, makes me concerned,” Jenny Town, managing editor at the North Korea monitoring website 38 North, said on Twitter.
Beijing, jointly with Russia, proposed on Monday that the United Nations Security Council lift some sanctions in what it calls an attempt to break the current deadlock and seeks to build support. But it’s unclear whether Beijing can convince Seoul and Tokyo to break ranks from Washington, which has made its opposition clear and can veto any resolution.
Though South Korea sees China as instrumental in reviving negotiations, it has so far sidestepped questions on whether it supports the new proposal by Beijing and Moscow. Japan, which has historically been a staunch supporter of sanctions against North Korea, has also refrained from commenting on the proposal.
“With the (2020 Tokyo) Olympics coming up, North Korea going wild would pose a problem for Japan,” said Narushige Michishita, professor at Japan’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
“But bilateral talks with North Korea, for example, will probably be a better approach for Japan than easing UN sanctions.”
has further bolstered its defence links with the United States with plans to build an F-16 fighter jet maintenance centre, as the Taipei government continues to resist Beijing’s objective of unification.
The self-ruled island’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) and US defence contractor Lockheed Martin signed a strategic partnership agreement on Tuesday that aimed to promote the establishment of an F-16 fighter jet maintenance centre in Taiwan, to be completed by 2023.
It is the latest of several significant agreements with the US during Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump approved a US$2.2 billion arms sale on July 8 that included 108 American-made M1A2T Abrams tanks and 250 Stinger missiles.
He was quicker to approve F-16 sales than his predecessors, agreeing in August to sell the island 66 F-16V jets, which will mean Taiwan owns the most F-16s in the Asia-Pacific region.
Trump also approved, in September last year, a US$330 million deal to provide spare parts and other logistics for several types of the island’s military aircraft – less than a year after the US agreed to sell US$1.4 billion of missiles, torpedoes and an early warning system to Taiwan.
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary.
‘Fighter jets trump battle tanks’ in Taiwan’s US arms priorities
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies with Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the planned maintenance centre underlined how Taiwan-US military ties had become stronger under the more enthusiastic US administration of Trump and the Taiwanese presidency of
“The [F-16 fighter jet maintenance] centre, by improving the availability and readiness of the F-16 fleet, allows Taiwan to sustain its combat aviation, not only for daily operation but also for training,” Koh said.
“This does represent a step up. Taiwan is no longer just an end-user operating the American hardware, but will also be empowered to service it. It is designed to help Taiwan achieve better defence self-sufficiency, one of the key pledges by the Tsai administration.”
Tang Shaocheng, a senior researcher in international relations at Taiwan’s National Cheng-chi University, said the increasingly close relations between Taipei and Washington made dealing with the island more tricky for Beijing.
Beijing ‘interferes daily’ in Taiwan’s election, says Tsai Ing-wen
“The Tsai administration cares about what the US thinks but not what Beijing thinks, paving the way for ever-closer ties,” Tang said. “That definitely leaves less room for Beijing to get Taipei into its orbit, by using various economic measures.”
Beijing has suspended exchanges with Taipei and staged a series of war games around Taiwan to intimidate the island since Tsai, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, became president in 2016 and refused to accept its one-China policy.
Beijing has also tried to isolate Taiwan internationally by poaching its diplomatic allies
since Tsai took office, has repeatedly warned Washington against seeking closer military ties with Taipei, and has protested against every arms deal the two have made.
The US acknowledges the Chinese claim that it has sovereignty over Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 and is self-governing. However, the US regards the status of Taiwan as unsettled and supports the island with arms sales and other measures, such as by sending warships through the Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China.
Mr Zakir told reporters in the Chinese capital on Monday that everyone in the centres had completed their courses and – with the “help of the government”- had “realised stable employment [and] improved their quality of life”.
He said that, in future, training would be based on “independent will” and people would have “the freedom to come and go”.
Media caption The BBC’s John Sudworth meets Uighur parents in Turkey who say their children are missing in China
BBC China correspondent John Sudworth points out it is not possible to verify the claims, as access for journalists is tightly controlled and it’s impossible to contact local residents without placing them at risk of detention.
In recent months, independent reports have suggested that some camp inmates are being released, only to face house arrest, other restrictions on their movement or forced labour in factories.
What could be behind the move?
Pressure has been increasing on Beijing in recent months.
A number of high-profile media reports based on leaks to the New York Times and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) have shone a spotlight on what is happening at the network of centres, which are believed to hold more than a million people, mainly Uighur Muslims and other minorities.
The bill still needs approval from the Senate and from President Donald Trump.
However, Mr Zakir used the press conference to dismiss the numbers detained as “pure fabrication”, reiterating Beijing’s argument that the centres were needed to combat violent religious extremism.
Media caption“An electric baton to the back of the head” – a former inmate described conditions at a secret camp to the BBC
“When the lives of people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang were seriously threatened by terrorism, the US turned a deaf ear,” Mr Zakir said at a press briefing.
“Now that Xinjiang society is steadily developing and people of all ethnicities are living and working in peace, the US feels uneasy, and attacks and smears Xinjiang.”
What’s going on in Xinjiang?
Reports of widespread detentions first began to emerge in 2018, when a UN human rights committee was told there were credible allegations that China had “turned the Uighur autonomous region into something that resembles a massive internment camp”.
Rights groups also say there’s growing evidence of oppressive surveillance against people living in the region.
The Chinese authorities said the “vocational training centres” were being used to combat violent religious extremism. However, evidence showed many people were being detained for simply expressing their faith, by praying or wearing a veil, or for having overseas connections to places like Turkey.
Records seen by the BBC show China has deliberately been separating Muslim children from their families.
This is an attempt to “raise a new generation cut off from original roots, religious beliefs and their own language”, Dr Adrian Zenz, a German researcher, told BBC News earlier this year.
“I believe the evidence points to what we must call cultural genocide.”
China’s ambassador to the UK said the allegations were “lies”.
Media caption Chinese Ambassador Liu Xiaoming dismisses evidence of a separation campaign in Xinjiang
According to the 2019 Global Diplomacy Index, released by the Lowy Institute in Australia on Wednesday, China has 276 embassies, consulates and other missions globally, surpassing the US with 273 missions. France was third on 267.
Bonnie Bley, the index report’s lead researcher, said that while a country’s total did not equate to diplomatic influence, “diplomatic infrastructure is still important”
“China’s newly held lead serves as a telling metric of national ambition and international priorities,” Bley said.
Beijing has 169 embassies or high commissions, while Washington has 168. However, China had 96 consulates while the US had 88, suggesting that Beijing’s diplomatic expansion was closely linked to its economic interests, she said.
Beijing bulks up diplomacy budget as China extends global reach
Renmin University international relations professor Shi Yinhong said China had close and growing trade and investment ties with many developing countries, especially those taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative, increasing the need for consulates.
“One of the consulates’ main goals is to serve the citizens and businesses located in those countries,” Shi said.
Beijing has also expanded its reach at Taipei’s expense. Since 2016, when the index was first published, Taiwan’s total number of embassies fell from 22 to 15, the biggest drop among the 61 places ranked.
China opened five new embassies – in El Salvador, Burkina Faso, Gambia, São Tomé and Príncipe and the Dominican Republic – countries that severed official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This directly contributed to China’s lead over the US, the report said.
Beijing’s diplomatic expansion also comes as the US, under the administration of President Donald Trump, is taking an “America first” approach to foreign policy.
Sri Lanka rejects fears of China’s ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ in belt and road projects
Trump has sought to cut funding to the US State Department and the White House has not appointed US ambassadors for at least 17 countries, including Brazil and Egypt, according to the American Foreign Service Association.
“Even though the US has a strong diplomatic base but it is not so proactive any more. It has fewer consulates and fewer foreign service workers,” Shi said.
“For the long term, China is in a more advantageous position.”
But a country’s diplomatic ability and influence did not rest on the number of foreign service postings and the US still held more international diplomatic sway than China, he added.
Some of China’s biggest diplomatic missions include Islamabad in Pakistan, Washington and London.
French leader calls for restraint and says he raised the topic ‘on several occasions’ during his visit
Two sides find common ground on need to defend free trade and fight climate change as Donald Trump starts process of pulling US out of Paris Climate Agreement
Xi Jinping and Emmanuel Macron at a welcome ceremony ahead of their talks in Beijing on Wednesday. Photo: AFP
French President Emmanuel Macron said he raised human rights and the Hong Kong situation during his talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Wednesday.
Macron’s visit to China concluded with pledges to work together on climate change, but the French leader also said he also called for a de-escalation of the situation in the city through dialogue after months of protests.
Macron, who had promised to raise “taboo” topics during the visit, told a press conference: “I obviously raised this with President Xi Jinping on several occasions.
“We have repeatedly called on the parties involved to [engage in] dialogue, to show restraint, to de-escalate.”
The discussion followed Xi’s meeting with Hong Kong’s embattled Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in Shanghai on Monday, where he expressed “high trust” in her and “fully affirmed” support for her response to the unrest that has gripped the city since June.
Earlier the French and Chinese leaders had restated their commitment to protect free trade and pledged their continued support for the Paris Agreement as the United States begins the process of formally withdrawing from the global climate deal.
Macron expressed “regret” over “some countries’ negative attitude” towards environmental protection and the fight against climate change and pledged to work with China to halt the loss of biodiversity.
The French president’s office also released a statement on Wednesday that reaffirmed France and China’s joint support for the “irreversible” Paris Agreement.
Macron points to common ground with China on tariffs and climate action
With the European Union, China and Russia backing the pact, he added, “the isolated choice of one or another is not enough to change the course of the world. It only leads to marginalisation.”
The two countries also agreed to work together to develop joint nuclear power projects and signed a series of contracts worth US$15 billion.
The deals covered aeronautics, energy and agriculture, including approval for 20 French companies to export poultry, beef and pork to China.
An additional action plan released after the talks said French utility giant EDF and China General Nuclear Power should be encouraged to cooperate on projects in China or third countries, citing the joint efforts by the two companies to build nuclear reactors at the Hinkley Point C station in Britain as an example.
The two sides also committed to signing a contract for the construction of a nuclear fuel recycling plant in China, which would involve French energy giant Orano, by January 31.
Xi took what appeared to be a veiled swipe at the United States, which is still embroiled in a protracted trade war and other confrontations with Beijing.
“We advocate for mutual respect and equal treatment, and are opposed to the law of the jungle and acts of intimidation,” Xi said.
“We advocate for openness, inclusion and for mutually beneficial cooperation, and are opposed to protectionism and a zero-sum game.”
Macron said China and the European Union should work in partnership as the world became more unstable, calling on the two sides to further open up market access.
“We call again for trade multilateralism to respond to distortions that have appeared in the global economy, which have led to a profound rise in inequalities and imbalances that explain the surge of challenges to the international systems,” he said.
“China and Europe also share the same views that the trade war only leads to loss.”
Macron kicks off China visit with deal to protect wine and cheese from counterfeiting
Chinese state news agency Xinhua said the two countries agreed to work together to push forward with plans to assemble Airbus’s A350 model in China.
Meanwhile, Beijing Gas Group and French utility firm Engie will collaborate on a liquefied natural gas terminal and storage in the northern city of Tianjin, while France’s Total will set up a joint venture with China’s Shenergy Group to distribute liquid nitrogen gas by truck in the Yangtze River Delta.
The two countries also agreed to reach an agreement by the end of January 2020 on the cost and location of a nuclear fuel reprocessing facility to be built by Orano, formerly known as Areva.
Wu Libo a professor and director of the Centre for Energy Economics and Strategies Studies at Fudan University, said there was “great potential” for further cooperation between the two countries on nuclear energy.
“France has many useful experiences in the operation and management of nuclear power plants and its plants have long-term safe and stable operation records,” she said.
The two sides agreed to work together on joint nuclear power projects. Photo: AP
Jiang Kejun, a senior researcher at the Energy Research Institute of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, said China’s cooperation with France would add credibility to potential third-country projects.
“China has advanced third-generation technology but it’s still a new member in the nuclear power market, while France has developed nuclear energy for a long time, and its EPR reactors – a technology designed and developed in France – are in business operation,” he said.
Jiang said possible markets for the joint projects included Argentina and India, while some Middle Eastern states – such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar – had expressed interest in nuclear energy.
China’s ambassador hits out at Macron’s team for backing ‘hypocritical’ EU stance on Hong Kong
Tong Jiadong, professor of international trade at Nankai University, said that the deals between the two sides helped show that France and China could work together to counteract US unilateralism.
“Objectively speaking, this will form, or at least imply, an opposition to US unilateralism,” Tong said. “China hopes the cooperation between these two countries produces demonstrable effects for other EU member states.”
Ding Chun, a professor of European Studies at Fudan University, said he did not think the EU wanted to “choose a side” between the US and China.
But Ding continued: “If we are talking about free trade and multilateralism, there’s no doubt that the EU and China share a common view and can balance Donald Trump’s unilateralism.”
BANGKOK (Reuters) – Leaders from China and Southeast Asia states called for swift agreement on what could become the world’s largest trade bloc at a regional summit on Sunday, but new demands from India left officials scrambling to salvage progress.
Hopes of finalising the Asia-wide Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is backed by China, have been thrown into doubt at the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Bangkok, Thailand.
Summit host Thailand said late on Sunday that the deal could be signed by February 2020. Thailand had previously said it aimed to conclude negotiations by the end of the year.
New impetus to reach agreement has come from the U.S.-China trade war, which has helped knock regional economic growth to its lowest in five years.
“The early conclusion of RCEP negotiations will lay the foundation for East Asia’s economic integration,” said a statement from China’s foreign ministry after Premier Li Keqiang met Southeast Asian leaders.
But Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not even mention the RCEP deal in opening remarks at a meeting with Southeast Asian leaders and instead spoke only of reviewing the existing trade agreement between ASEAN and India.
Nor did Modi mention the trade bloc, whose 16 countries would account for a third of global gross domestic product and nearly half the world’s population, in Twitter posts after meeting Thai and Indonesian leaders.
RELATED COVERAGE
Asia trade bloc deal possible by February 2020 – Thai spokeswoman
An Indian foreign ministry official later told a media briefing “Let’s take all the RCEP questions tomorrow.”
Southeast Asian countries had hoped at least a provisional agreement could be announced on Monday.
But India has been worried about a potential flood of Chinese imports. A person with knowledge of New Delhi’s negotiations said new demands were made last week “which are difficult to meet.”
TRADE WAR IMPACT
Negotiators were meeting into the evening on Sunday to try to come to an agreement, Thai government spokeswoman Narumon Pinyosinwat told reporters on Sunday.
“We don’t have a conclusion yet. Once there is one, it would be announced,” she said. “Commerce ministers are still discussing outstanding issues. The signing is expected around February next year.”
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha told the formal opening of the ASEAN summit on Sunday that the 16 nations in the potential trade bloc ought to come to agreement this year to stimulate economic growth, trade and investment.
He highlighted the risks of “trade frictions” and “geo strategic competition” in the region.
Some countries have raised the possibility of moving ahead without India on forming a bloc that also included Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
But Thai commerce minister Jurin Laksanawisit told Reuters on Sunday that India had not pulled out.
Another advantage for Southeast Asian countries from having relative heavyweight India in the trade pact would be less domination by China.
Longstanding rivals China and India, which fought a border war in 1962, clashed verbally in recent days over India’s decision to formally revoke the constitutional autonomy of the disputed Muslim majority state of Kashmir.
The U.S. decision to send a lower level delegation to the summits this year has raised regional concerns that it can no longer be relied on as a counterweight to China’s increasing regional might.
Instead of President Donald Trump or Vice President Mike Pence, the United States will be represented by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien.
At the summit, China’s Premier Li said China was ready to work with countries in the region for long term peace and stability in the South China Sea, where neighbours reject Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims.
Negotiations going ‘as planned’, foreign ministry says after cancellation of Apec summit at which presidents were set to meet to sign ‘phase-one’ agreement
With an election looming and possible impeachment inquiry, Trump in more of a hurry to reach a deal than Xi, observers say
Talks between China and the US are going well, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Photo: AFP
Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump have “maintained contact”, China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday after authorities in Chile announced the cancellation of the upcoming Apec summit at which the US and Chinese leaders were set to meet and possibly sign a trade deal.
Talks between the two nations were going well, ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily press briefing.
“The negotiations are smooth and things are working out as planned,” he said.
“Regarding the meeting between the two state leaders, they have maintained contact through various means.”
Geng’s comments came after China’s commerce ministry said that top trade negotiators from the two countries would hold a telephone conversation on Friday.
Xi and Trump were due to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago on November 16-17, but the event was cancelled due to the ongoing protests in the country. The leaders were also expected to sign an interim trade deal based on the ground made at the latest negotiations in Washington on October 11.
According to diplomatic observers, while Beijing wants a truce in the trade dispute it is in less of a hurry than Trump, who is facing the threat of impeachment and trying to prepare for an election campaign.
Shen Dingli, an expert in international relations based in Shanghai, said that China faced less domestic opposition to its handling of the trade talks than Washington.
“Trump is facing a lot of problems on both the diplomatic and domestic fronts,” he said. “[But] I think both sides still need an agreement. It is always better to have an agreement than not.”
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (left) and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He met in Washington early this month. Photo: AFP
Yuan Zheng, an expert on China-US relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that while the Apec summit had offered a convenient way for the presidents to meet, the substance of the deal was more important than where it might be signed.
“It’s true that the deal can be signed by representatives instead of the presidents but this depends very much on how keen Trump is for the presidential meeting to happen,” he said.
“He is facing an election and huge domestic pressure, so he … needs to show his strong leadership more than Xi. But of course, if the deal is set and if the details of the meeting are practical, the Chinese side would like a presidential meeting too.”
Shen Dingli, an expert in international relations, says China faces less domestic opposition to its handling of the trade talks than Washington. Photo: AP
Speaking after the talks in Washington between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Trump said the two sides had reached a “substantial phase one deal” and that after it had been put down on paper it would be signed at the Apec meeting.
Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the cancellation of the Chile summit should not stop the US and China agreeing a truce.
“If the two sides are genuinely willing to reach an interim deal before mid-December, when the next increase in tariffs on Chinese goods is due to take place, they will find a venue to get it done,” he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump set to meet on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Chile next month, a source says
The two state leaders are expected to sign an interim trade deal ‘if everything goes smoothly’
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump have met twice already over the course of the 16-month trade war. Photo: AP
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are tentatively expected to meet on November 17 with the aim of signing an interim trade deal, a source briefed on the arrangements told the South China Morning Post.
The two leaders are expected to come face-to-face immediately after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Santiago, Chile, with a trade truce signed “if everything goes smoothly”, said the person, who declined to be identified.
Trade envoys from Beijing and Washington are still finalising the text for the two leaders to sign, but both sides have expressed optimism that Trump’s so-called phase one trade deal can be completed in time for the meeting.
Trump said on Monday that negotiations on the interim deal were running “ahead of schedule”.
“We are looking probably to be ahead of schedule to sign a very big portion of the China deal, and we’ll call it phase one but it’s a very big portion,” Trump said. “That would take care of the farmers. It would take care of some of the other things. It will also take care of a lot of the banking needs.
“So we’re about, I would say, a little bit ahead of schedule, maybe a lot ahead of schedule,” the president said, adding the deal would “probably” be signed.
Top trade negotiators for the two countries – US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He – spoke by telephone last Friday. The Office of the US Trade Representative released a statement after the call saying that the two sides “made headway on specific issues” and “are close to finalising some sections of the agreement”.
China’s official Xinhua News Agency said on Saturday negotiators have “agreed to properly resolve core concerns of each other” and had “basically completed technical discussions about parts of the text”. In particular, China would lift the current ban on US poultry imports and recognise the American public health certification system for meat product imports, Xinhua said.
The top trade envoys are expected to hold another conference call in the near future.
China’s Vice-Premier Liu He between US trade representative Robert Lighthizer (left) and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin during trade negotiations in Washington this month. Photo: Reuters
Taoran Notes, an account on Chinese social media platform WeChat run by the official Economic Daily newspaper, wrote over the weekend that Beijing and Washington had moved a step closer to agreement on a “temporary deal”.
“According to past experiences and practises, the negotiation will enter the stage of translation and legal review after the technical completion of the text,” the account said.
Geng Shuang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said that technical negotiations about part of the deal were finished but deputy-level talks were ongoing. “China hopes both sides can find a trade solution based upon mutual respect and benefits,” Geng said at a regular press conference on Tuesday.
If it goes ahead as planned, the summit between Trump and Xi in Chile next month would be the third time the two leaders have sat down to talk about ending the nearly 16-month-long trade war.
Last December, the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in the Argentinian capital Buenos Aires and agreed to a three-month tariff truce to allow time for the countries’ trade envoys to work out a comprehensive deal. But the talks collapsed in early May with the US blaming China for reneging on promises it made in negotiations, while China blamed the US for attempting to infringe on its economic sovereignty.
The pair met again in late June in the Japanese city of Osaka, where they agreed to restart trade negotiations.
A minor ceasefire was reached in October when Beijing promised to buy US$40 billion to US$50 billion worth of American agricultural products in exchange for Washington postponing indefinitely a tariff increase on US$250 billion of Chinese goods to 30 per cent from 25 per cent on October 15.
Analysts expect fresh 15 per cent duties on about US$160 billion of Chinese imports – including popular products like smartphones and consumer electronics – that are due to go into effect mid-December will also be postponed if a deal is signed, though this has not been officially confirmed.
The interim deal is also expected to contain a provision on intellectual property protection, a key US demand. China has taken steps to improve IP protection, including setting up a system to punish and compensate instances of infringement, and improve settlement disputes. But how well these measures will be implemented remains in question.
China and the US would also agree to avoid allowing currency devaluations to gain trade advantages, codifying a commitment both countries made as part of a G20 agreement several years ago. A currency agreement – similar to provisions in the yet-to-be-ratified US-Mexico-Canada Agreement – could pave the way for the US to remove its designation of China as a “currency manipulator”.
The deal may include a new dispute resolution mechanism to ensure both sides live up to commitments. The system, which will give both sides equal standing, would replace a contentious US-proposed enforcement mechanism that was a key reason for trade talks breaking down in May after China felt the demands too intrusive and one-sided. It is unclear how effective the proposal would be, but the US has insisted since talks began that a similar mechanism be implemented to ensure China did not backslide on promises as it had in the past.
In addition to large purchases of farm products, the interim agreement may contain commitments by China to buy US-built aircraft and energy products, particularly liquefied natural gas.
China will also agree to lift foreign ownership limits on Chinese financial firms under the deal, changes which are already underway.
However, the interim deal will not address broader US complaints about China’s economic model, particularly allegations that foreign firms are treated unfairly and heavy government subsidies favour some domestic industries. Nor will it contain any break for telecommunications equipment maker Huawei and other Chinese tech companies that were blacklisted by the US on national security concerns.
Leaders exchange congratulatory messages on 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations amid speculation that Kim Jong-un will visit China soon
It comes after Pyongyang’s denuclearisation negotiations with Washington broke off in Stockholm without any breakthroughs
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (left) may soon visit China again. He last met Xi Jinping during the Chinese leader’s trip to Pyongyang in June. Photo: AFP
China and North Korea on Sunday vowed to continue strengthening their ties that have “stood the test of time”, hours after another squabble broke out between Pyongyang and Washington over the breakdown of their first nuclear talks in eight months.
Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties, according to state media in both countries, amid speculation that Kim will soon pay another visit to China.
Observers said the communist neighbours’ warm exchanges and Kim’s possible visit showed Beijing and Pyongyang shared mutual interests and needed each other in their respective geopolitical plans to counter Washington – especially as they both come under pressure from US President Donald Trump.
The two countries are said to be preparing for Kim to visit China as early as Sunday, which would be his fifth China trip since March last year and the first since Xi’s state visit to Pyongyang in June.
But given Pyongyang’s denuclearisation negotiations with Washington on Saturday – which broke off in Stockholm without any breakthroughs – China and North Korea may need to reconsider or delay Kim’s visit to avoid criticism of Beijing’s role in the nuclear talks, one expert suggested.
“The triangular ties between China, the United States and North Korea are of immense importance in finding a solution to the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and Beijing’s role in the talks has always been sensitive, especially in the eyes of the US and its allies,” said Wang Sheng, a North Korea specialist at Jilin University.
“While China will almost certainly reiterate its stance to support continued dialogue and talks between Pyongyang and Washington, it may not be a good time for Kim’s high-profile visit just a day after their talks broke down, which would inevitably make it more difficult for China to play a mediating role,” he said.
On Sunday, Xi said the traditional friendship between the two countries had “stood the test of time and changes in the international landscape, growing stronger with the passage of time” and “made important and positive contributions to regional peace and stability”, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.
Citing his five recent meetings with Kim, Xi said bilateral ties had entered a new era and China would promote “long-term, healthy and stable” relations with North Korea.
Kim also hailed the special relationship between the two countries, which he said had been forged “at the cost of blood” and “weathered all tempests while sharing weal and woe with each other”, the Korean Central News Agency reported.
North Korean mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun meanwhile said in a commentary that bilateral ties with Beijing were “fully in accordance” with the interests of the two sides and would develop “regardless of the international situation”, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
The lavish praise for Sino-North Korean relations comes as a group of working-level officials from North Korea are working with the Chinese side for a possible visit by Kim in the next few days, according to South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo.
China and North Korea have set aside their differences as both countries come under pressure from US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP
North Korea was among the first countries to recognise the People’s Republic of China
70 years ago and Xi has exchanged three messages with Kim in the past month, repeatedly pledging to move closer despite lingering grievances over Pyongyang’s nuclear brinkmanship.
In the face of Trump’s increasingly antagonistic approach, the former communist allies – whose relationship deteriorated over Beijing’s support for the UN sanctions against the North, led by Washington – have set aside their differences to patch up ties in recent months.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang’s first nuclear talks with Washington in eight months ended on Saturday with the two sides offering conflicting assessments of their first formal discussion since the failed Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam in February.
North Korea’s top negotiator Kim Myong-gil expressed his “great displeasure” with the discussions, blaming Washington and urging the Trump administration to correct its course and keep the talks alive or “forever close the door to dialogue”, according to Yonhap.
North Korean negotiator Kim Myong-gil expressed his “great displeasure” with the discussions on Saturday. Photo: AP
But the US State Department issued a rebuke hours later, claiming the negotiators had a “good discussion”. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement that the US had put forward “creative ideas” and “a number of new initiatives that would allow us to make progress in each of the four pillars of the Singapore joint statement”.
The two countries were not expected to “overcome a legacy of 70 years of war and hostility on the Korean peninsula through the course of a single Saturday”, she said, adding that Washington would return for more discussions with Pyongyang in two weeks at Sweden’s invitation.
As Trump administration enters survival mode, foreign policy moves are anyone’s guess
Wang from Jilin University said the breakdown of another round of talks had again laid bare the huge gap between the two sides over a long list of issues, from the definition of denuclearisation to their vastly different, often conflicting, demands and interests.
“It’s very likely that Washington has again rejected some of Pyongyang’s key demands in the recent talks, such as providing a security guarantee for Kim’s regime and a range of economic sanctions relief,” he said.
And with North Korea a polarising issue in the looming US presidential poll for Trump as he seeks to score diplomatic points for his re-election bid, it might become even more challenging for the two sides to narrow their differences.
“The breakdown of the talks should not be seen as a failure,” Wang said. “It simply underscores the difficulty of reaching any consensus in the nuclear talks, which still have a long way to go.”
Those living in Wuhan had already been told to avoid crowds and minimise public gatherings.
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