Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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The rhetoric towards the self-ruled island has hardened in Premier Li Keqiang’s annual work report
Beijing regards Taiwan as one of its core national interests and says it ‘resolutely opposes’ any separatist activity
Beijing regards reunification with Taiwan as one of its core interests. Photo: EPA-EFE
Beijing has hardened its rhetoric towards Taiwan, removing references to “peaceful reunification”, in the government’s annual work report.
Observers said the change reflected the stronger stance Beijing would adopt in tackling the Taiwan issue, which it regards as one of its key national interests.
The past six work reports since President Xi Jinping took power in 2013 stressed peaceful reunification and the 1992 consensus – under which both sides tacitly agree there is only one China, but have different interpretations on what this means.
But the latest report from Premier Li Keqiang took a different tone, saying: “We will adhere to the major principles and policies on work related to Taiwan and resolutely oppose and deter any separatist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence’.”
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“We will improve institutional arrangements, policies, and measures to encourage exchanges and cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, further cross-strait integrated development, and protect the well-being of our compatriots in Taiwan,” the report said.
“We will encourage them to join us in opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ and promoting China’s reunification.
“With these efforts, we can surely create a beautiful future for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” it said, dropping a clause that described the process as “peaceful”.
The 1992 consensus allows leeway for both parties to negotiate an agreement, but President Tsai Ing-wen has said the island would never accept it as the basis for cross-strait relations.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said on Friday that the “one country, two systems” framework, touted by Beijing as a political basis for unification, had harmed cross-strait relations. It called for the two sides to work together to resolve their differences.
Tang Shao-cheng, an international relations specialist at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said the change in wording and tone of the Taiwan section of the work report could be seen as a warning to Tsai’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“Not mentioning ‘peace’ suggests Beijing is considering unification both by peaceful means and by force,” Tang said.
President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang at the National People’s Congress opening session on Friday. Photo: Kyodo
Derek Grossman, an analyst from US-based think tank Rand Corporation, said Beijing would continue to put pressure on the island using diplomatic, military, economic and psychological means.
“Beijing will continue to send military aircraft near the island … [it] could decide to end the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement which has remained active in spite of Tsai’s election in 2016; Beijing could steal one or more diplomatic partners from Taipei. I would expect these types of actions to be on the table,” Grossman said.
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Sun Yun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre think tank in the US, said Beijing faced a dilemma on whether to continue economic integration with Taiwan because that had not had the political effect it wanted.
“The obstacles to unification are not economic, but political. Taiwan is unwilling to pursue unification with an authoritarian mainland. To solve that issue, presumably the mainland could pursue political reform. But in reality, the Chinese Communist Party is unwilling,” she said.
“If the economic and political approach doesn’t work, what’s left is the military approach. But with US intervention, the mainland will not prevail.”
Beijing recently warned Washington it would respond after US Secretary of State
, and demanded that the US stop selling arms to the island.
Joshua Eisenman, a professor from the University of Notre Dame in Indiana, said Beijing was running out of countermeasures, since its actions had only hardened attitudes on the island and enhanced the sense of Taiwanese identity.
“As I see it, all that remains is for the [Chinese Communist Party[ to sit down and talk to the DPP without preconditions and establish a modus vivendi for cross-strait relations,” he said.
People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
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The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
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At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
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According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
As US financial support expires in 2023, Beijing could ‘loosen the screws’ on regional alliance with lucrative development deals
Independence vote in Micronesia’s Chuuk state in March could raise the stakes, potentially allowing China access to strategically vital waters
President of the Federated States of Micronesia David Panuelo shakes hands with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua
In China earlier this month, David Panuelo, the president of the Federated States of Micronesia, climbed the Badaling section of the Great Wall. And, according to Huang Zheng, Beijing’s ambassador to the Pacific nation, the countries’ “great friendship rose to even greater heights” during Panuelo’s visit.
Chinese investment in Micronesia reached similarly lofty levels in conjunction with Panuelo’s trip, which marked three decades of diplomatic ties and included meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. Beijing has committed US$72 million in economic development deals, almost as much as its total investment of the previous three decades.
Micronesia is one of three Pacific nations with agreements with Washington, known as the Compact of Free Association (COFA), which allows their citizens to live and work in the US. In exchange, Micronesia, neighbouring Palau and the Marshall Islands grant the US exclusive military and defence access to their territorial waters – more than 2 million square miles of the Pacific that have been an essential element of Washington’s power projection in the region since World War II.
Much of China’s funding has been directed to Micronesia’s Chuuk state, which will in March vote in an independence referendum.
Although Chuuk is home to fewer than 50,000 people, its waters include one of the region’s deepest and most strategically appealing lagoons, creating extra incentive for Beijing and potential concern for Washington as the two countries
With a population of just 113,000 people, Micronesia relies on remittances sent home by citizens working in the US as well as the financial support from Washington under COFA. That assistance is scheduled to expire in 2023, creating uncertainty about the future of the relationship and making Chinese investment even more influential.
“Panuelo’s visit to China is a perfect example of how [the Chinese side] just needs to do a little to get a lot,” said Derek Grossman, senior analyst at Rand Corporation, a Washington think tank. “US$100 million is not very much for them and they can essentially loosen the screws [on COFA] with that.”
Micronesian President David Panuelo (second on left) and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (right) during their talks in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE
The value of Micronesia’s bilateral trade with China has increased by nearly 30 per cent annually for the past five years, according to Micronesia’s Foreign Ministry. In 2017, the island nation signed onto President Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative which aims to build a vast network of strategic investment, trade routes and infrastructure projects across more than 150 countries.
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In recent years Chinese funding in Micronesia has built office and residential complexes for government officials, a showpiece new convention centre in the capital city Palikir, transport infrastructure and student exchanges, according to a recent report by Rand.
Jian Zhang, associate professor at UNSW Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Beijing’s investment reflected a decision to cultivate broader, deeper ties.
Micronesian President David Panuelo during his meeting with Chinese officials in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE
“China’s interest in building the relationship with Micronesia is not just about its diplomatic rivalry with Taiwan or economic interests,” he said. “It has elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership which encompasses all areas.”
During his recent visit, Panuelo described China as Micronesia’s top economic partner and the US as its top security partner. Pompeo’s visit to Micronesia highlights US anxiety about rising Chinese influence in Pacific 5 Aug 2019
Gerard Finin, professor of regional planning at Cornell University, who previously worked with the US Department of State in the Pacific, said: “China’s leadership consistently accords large ocean states the full protocol that is expected when a head of state visits.
“In contrast, Washington has only had a limited number of meetings and never hosted an official state visit to Washington for the leader of a Pacific Island nation,” said Finin.
US President Donald Trump in May hosted the leaders of Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands together at the White House. When Mike Pompeo visited Micronesia
in August, he became the only sitting US secretary of state to have done so.
Pompeo said negotiations to update COFA had begun but no details have been made public. Micronesia has assembled a team to conduct the negotiations but the US has not, the Honolulu Civil Beat website reported.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Micronesia in August. Photo: AFP
Breakaway vote could raise the stakes
Panuelo’s team met Micronesian students studying in China and representatives of state-owned China Railway Construction Corporation, which will build the roads in Chuuk, funded in part by US$50 million from Beijing. Construction of the Chuuk government complex was also funded by Beijing and the state’s governor joined Panuelo for his visit.
Should Chuuk vote to separate from Micronesia in March, it could also mean breaking from COFA, jeopardising the US work privileges of thousands of Chuukese and opening the state’s waters to other partners, particularly China.
Chuuk is home to one of the deepest lagoons in the Pacific, a geographic rarity of particular value in strategic military operations and submarine navigation.
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Zhang said Beijing would explore any opportunity to build a port with potential military capability.
“China has a long-term need to gain a strategic foothold in the region,” Zhang said. “That is a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative. At the general level it’s an economic initiative but an important aspect of the maritime Silk Road is to develop a network of strategically located port facilities.”
Sabino Asor, chair of the public education committee for the Chuuk Political Status Commission, told Civil Beat seceding from Micronesia would be the best option for Chuuk’s future.
“There is no encouraging prospect if Chuuk remains within the Federation,” he said.
However, Patrick Buchan, at Washington think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Chuuk’s dependence on remittances from the US made breaking from COFA unlikely.
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In the meantime, uncertainty over COFA negotiations persists, although there is a chance it will be renewed with few changes.
“There is circulation with people easily coming and going that provides a level of understanding and friendship that does not exist between too many other countries,” Finin said.
However, China’s most attractive feature may be its willingness to at least discuss the most pressing concern of Pacific Island nations: climate change.
“When the Trump administration talks about how it doesn’t believe in climate change, or can’t even say the words – that is really offensive for Pacific nations,” Grossman said. “China knows that, and is taking full advantage of it.”
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead delegation at two-day summit that is expected to be attended by 400 officials and 200 businesspeople
Observers say it is Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the region and will be closely watched in the US
Samoan capital Apia will host the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum, which begins on Sunday. Photo: Alamy
China will seek to expand its economic and diplomatic influence in the South Pacific at a forum this weekend, amid growing concern from the US and its allies over Beijing’s push in the strategically important region.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum in the Samoan capital Apia, which begins on Sunday. It is expected to be attended by 400 officials and more than 200 businesspeople.
Hu, the former Communist Party chief of China’s manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong who now overseas commercial and agricultural affairs, is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony.
Beijing sees the two-day forum as “timely” and “a good opportunity to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the Pacific”, a commerce ministry spokesperson told the official Economic Daily newspaper.
Trade, agriculture and fisheries, as well as tourism, infrastructure and climate change were at the top of the agenda for the forum, the spokesperson said.
Leaders of all the Pacific nations – except the four that do not have formal diplomatic ties with Beijing – are expected to attend the forum. Australia, which has “observer status” at the summit, will send Ewen McDonald, deputy secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the head of its Pacific office.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the forum. Photo: EPA-EFE
The forum comes after China hailed a “new breakthrough” in the region following the decision last month by the Solomon Islands and then Kiribati – despite warnings from the US – to cut diplomatic ties with Taipei and switch to Beijing.
They are the latest of Taipei’s allies to be poached by Beijing as it ramps up pressure on the self-ruled island that it sees as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Observers said this weekend’s forum was Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the Pacific.
“Having one of China’s top 25 officials visit the region so soon after [Chinese President] Xi Jinping spent close to three days in Papua New Guinea last November is certainly significant,” said Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands programme at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, referring to Hu’s position in the 25-member Politburo.
“It shows clearly China’s attempt to recapture momentum after the West, and in particular Australia, have redoubled their efforts in maintaining and building relationships in the Pacific,” he said.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Peter O’Neill (second from left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (second from right) pose for a photo during Xi’s visit in November. Photo: AFP
First held in Fiji in 2006, the forum is part of China’s efforts to expand its reach in the resource-rich region.
Back then, premier Wen Jiabao announced 3 billion yuan of concessional loans to Pacific nations and promised to facilitate more trade, medical aid and tourism with the countries. Chinese capital has been pouring into the region – particularly from the mining and fisheries sectors – ever since.
Of note was a 440 million yuan investment, supported by loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, to build a central business centre at Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga.
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As China’s influence grows, the South Pacific – a region traditionally under US hegemony, and on Australia’s doorstep – has “increasingly become a major power that cannot be neglected” and “an important part of China’s greater strategic landscape”, according to Shi Chunlin, an associate professor at Dalian Maritime University.
Trade has increased between China and the eight Pacific nations that have diplomatic ties with Beijing, rising to a combined US$4.32 billion last year – up 25 per cent from 2017.
China has also become the largest trading partner of new ally the Solomons, the second-largest to Papua New Guinea and Fiji, and the third-largest to Samoa.
China’s direct investment in the region has also jumped, reaching US$4.53 billion last year, a more than fourfold increase from the US$900 million of 2013.
Pryke said Beijing was expected to offer new support and loans to the Pacific nations.
“But the Pacific are much more picky about how they want to engage with all partners than they were a decade ago,” he added.
Returning from a trip to China earlier this month, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare confirmed Beijing would provide a US$74 million grant to build a new stadium for the 2023 Pacific Games in the capital Honiara – something its former ally Taipei had committed to fund.
China Sam Group also reportedly signed an agreement on September 22 to lease the island of Tulagi in the Solomons, the site of a former Japanese naval base. The agreement mentioned the development of a refinery on the island, but critics said it could also potentially be used as a military base.
China is now the second-largest donor in the region, only after Australia, which has viewed Beijing’s financial largesse with suspicion.
Last year, in an apparent effort to counter China’s rising influence in the region, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that Pacific countries would be offered up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans to build infrastructure.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year announced up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans for infrastructure in Pacific nations. Photo: EPA-EFE
The US, meanwhile, has also been wary of China’s push in the Pacific, amid an escalating geopolitical competition between the world’s two largest economies across many fronts – from trade to tech supremacy and security. The US has long maintained exclusive defence access in the region through its Guam military base and security pacts with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst with the US-based Rand Corporation, said this year’s forum in Samoa was likely to be higher profile than previous years after Beijing lured away two more diplomatic allies from Taipei.
He said it would be “closely watched in the US for how Beijing continues to leverage sweet economic deals via its Belt and Road Initiative to potentially entice others to switch”.
“The US, along with close friends Australia, Japan and New Zealand, are becoming increasingly concerned over the prospects for China to one day curry enough influence in these small island states to gain port access that could be used for new naval bases,” he said.
The most important issue at the forum, he said, would be “whether the West assesses that China is making further inroads with these states”.
“The likely answer will be that it is, suggesting that the US and its partners will have to compete with China in this region to ensure that it remains ‘free and open’, per the US Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 