Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
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The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
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At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
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According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
At present, there appear to be at least 18 pilots flying the home-grown stealth fighter jets, according to a promotional video released by the air force this week.
The video is part of a campaign to find new recruits for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and encourages young Chinese aged 17 to 20, and those graduating from high school in 2019, to apply.
The recruitment drive is under way in 31 of the country’s 33 provinces, and successful candidates will be given the opportunity to study at some of China’s top universities while they are being trained.
As the United States seeks to expand its military presence in the region as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy, China is trying to build up its forces, with a focus on modernising the air force and navy.
And with hundreds of new warplanes – including more than 100 fighter jets – being commissioned each year, China’s demand for pilots is huge.
Last year, the air force recruited its biggest pool of trainees ever, taking on some 1,480 high school graduates.
All pilots must be able to fly different types of planes, but those who receive advanced training to operate China’s newest heavyweight stealth fighter are given the title J-20 pilot.
Among those featured in the air force promotional video is J-20 pilot Bai Long. The 29-year-old has become a popular public face of the PLA Air Force since he flew a J-16 multirole strike fighter during the high-profile military parade marking the PLA’s 90th anniversary in 2017. It was the public debut of China’s fourth-generation fighter jet, which is based on the Russian Sukhoi Su-30.
In an interview last year, Bai said his dream was to be able to “fly China’s most advanced fighter jet” – an ambition he has now officially achieved.
Developed by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, the J-20 made its maiden flight in 2011 and entered service in 2017. It is the world’s third fifth-generation fighter jet after America’s F-22 and F-35 and is expected to be key to China’s ambition of gaining superiority in the air.
Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said China expected the US to deploy between 200 and 300 F-35s – in addition to the 187 F-22s in operation – in the Asia-Pacific region by 2025.
He said that meant “China needs a similar number of J-20s – or at least 200”.
Meanwhile, the PLA Navy is also searching for trainee pilots, especially for its aircraft carrier-based J-15 fighter jets. By the end of 2016, 25 pilots had qualified to fly the J-15s. That number grew to 40 the following year, and in addition more than two dozen J-15 pilots were being trained.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
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