Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
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Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAUImage caption The area has become a hotspot in part because of a road India has built
The armies of the world’s two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.
Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.
The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.
The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi – this is not a routine incursion.
“The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo,” says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army.
China takes a different view, saying it’s India which has changed facts on the ground.
Reports in the Indian media said soldiers from the two sides clashed on at least two occasions in Ladakh. Stand-offs are reported in at least three locations: the Galwan valley; Hot Springs; and Pangong lake to the south.
India and China share a border more than 3,440km (2,100 miles) long and have overlapping territorial claims. Their border patrols often bump into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles but both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades.
Their armies – two of the world’s largest – come face to face at many points. The poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) separates the two sides. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line separating soldiers can shift and they often come close to confrontation.
The current military tension is not limited to Ladakh. Soldiers from the two sides are also eyeball-to-eyeball in Naku La, on the border between China and the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim. Earlier this month they reportedly came to blows.
And there’s a row over a new map put out by Nepal, too, which accuses India of encroaching on its territory by building a road connecting with China.
Why are tensions rising now?
There are several reasons – but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.
“The traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh,” Mr Shukla says.
India’s decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.
Image copyright AFPImage caption There have been protests in Nepal against Indi’s new road link
“According to the Chinese military, India is the one which has forced its way into the Galwan valley. So, India is changing the status quo along the LAC – that has angered the Chinese,” says Dr Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA), a think tank.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center, another think tank, says this face-off is not routine. He adds China’s “massive deployment of soldiers is a show of strength”.
The road could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.
Differences have been growing in the past year over other areas of policy too.
The new federally-administered Ladakh included Aksai Chin, an area India claims but China controls.
Senior leaders of India’s Hindu-nationalist BJP government have also been talking about recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A strategic road, the Karakoram highway, passes through this area that connects China with its long-term ally Pakistan. Beijing has invested about $60bn (£48bn) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative and the highway is key to transporting goods to and from the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.
In addition, China was unhappy when India initially banned all exports of medical and protective equipment to shore up its stocks soon after the coronavirus pandemic started earlier this year.
How dangerous could this get?
“We routinely see both armies crossing the LAC – it’s fairly common and such incidents are resolved at the local military level. But this time, the build-up is the largest we have ever seen,” says former Indian diplomat P Stobdan, an expert in Ladakh and India-China affairs.
“The stand-off is happening at some strategic areas that are important for India. If Pangong lake is taken, Ladakh can’t be defended. If the Chinese military is allowed to settle in the strategic valley of Shyok, then the Nubra valley and even Siachen can be reached.”
In what seems to be an intelligence failure, India seems to have been caught off guard again. According to Indian media accounts, the country’s soldiers were outnumbered and surrounded when China swiftly diverted men and machines from a military exercise to the border region.
This triggered alarm in Delhi – and India has limited room for manoeuvre. It can either seek to persuade Beijing to withdraw its troops through dialogue or try to remove them by force. Neither is an easy option.
“China is the world’s second-largest military power. Technologically it’s superior to India. Infrastructure on the other side is very advanced. Financially, China can divert its resources to achieve its military goals, whereas the Indian economy has been struggling in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation,” says Ajai Shukla.
What next?
History holds difficult lessons for India. It suffered a humiliating defeat during the 1962 border conflict with China. India says China occupies 38,000km of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary issues.
China already controls the Aksai Chin area further east of Ladakh and this region, claimed by India, is strategically important for Beijing as it connect its Xinjiang province with western Tibet.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India and China have a long history of border disputes
In 2017 India and China were engaged in a similar stand-off lasting more than two months in Doklam plateau, a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.
This time, too, talks are seen as the only way forward – both countries have so much to lose in a military conflict.
“China has no intention to escalate tensions and I think India also doesn’t want a conflict. But the situation depends on both sides. The Indian government should not be guided by the nationalistic media comments,” says Dr Long Xingchun of the CIWA in Chengdu. “Both countries have the ability to solve the dispute through high-level talks.”
Chinese media have given hardly any coverage to the border issue, which is being interpreted as a possible signal that a route to talks will be sought.
Pratyush Rao, associate director for South Asia at Control Risks consultancy, says both sides have “a clear interest in prioritising their economic recovery” and avoiding military escalation.
“It is important to recognise that both sides have a creditable record of maintaining relative peace and stability along their disputed border.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Around 300,000 in Hong Kong hold a British National (Overseas) passport
The UK has said it is considering more rights for holders of a special passport issued to some people in Hong Kong.
The territory, which used to be a British colony, was handed back to China in 1997. Anyone born before then is eligible to apply for a British National (Overseas) passport, known as a BNO.
If China implements a controversial proposed security law, people holding the BNO, could get a “path to citizenship”, the UK said.
What is the BNO and who has one?
The BNO passport is essentially a travel document that does not carry citizenship rights with it – although you are entitled to some consular assistance outside of Hong Kong and China with it.
It was issued to people in Hong Kong by the UK before Hong Kong was handed over to China.
Around 300,000 people currently hold a BNO passport, allowing them to visit the UK visa-free for six months. An estimated 2.9 million people are eligible for a BNO passport, said the British Consulate General in Hong Kong.
Though it gives the passport holder the right to remain in the UK for up to six months, it doesn’t automatically allow them to reside or work there. They also aren’t allowed to access public funds, including things like government benefits.
BNO holders cannot pass this status on to their children.
What is the UK proposing – and why?
China on Thursday formally approved a plan to impose controversial national security legislation in Hong Kong. It could go into effect as early as the end of June.
Hong Kong was handed back to China, on a number of conditions. These include the region’s high level of autonomy and maintaining certain rights like freedom of speech that do not exist in mainland China.
But this new plan, if put into law, would make it a crime to undermine Beijing’s authority in Hong Kong, and many are concerned it could end Hong Kong’s unique status.
The move triggered a wave of criticism around the world, with many – including Chris Patten, the last governor of Hong Kong – urging the UK to stand up for the territory.
Image caption Under current rules, BNO holders are allowed to stay for six months
Later on Thursday, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the country would move to scrap the six-month stay limit for BNO holders if China goes on to officially implement the law.
Mr Raab said that BNO passport holders would be allowed to “apply to work and study for extendable periods of 12 months and that will itself provide a pathway to future citizenship”.
What difference could it make?
As a way to help people in Hong Kong who would rather not stay there if the new security laws are implemented, it might prove more symbolic.
For starters only a small percentage of people in Hong Kong currently have a BNO.
But also, the people who the security laws are aimed at – the young anti-mainland protesters who have been getting into violent confrontations with police for months – are not likely to be eligible for the BNO because of their age.
Additionally, though the BNO gives the passport holder the right to visit the UK for up to a year potentially, it’s not clear what other benefits the extension might bring, or if the UK would make it any easier administratively for those already in the country to apply for work or study.
On social media, some Hong Kongers dismissed it as a gesture that amounted to little more than a 12-month tourist visa.
Effectively, it means that those who come to stay in the UK for a year, and who have the funds to be able to extend this enough, could eventually be eligible to apply for citizenship.
It cuts out some of the administrative hoops BNO holders would have had to jump through before this move if they wanted this path.
How has China reacted?
China has firmly opposed the move by the UK, saying it is a violation of the handover agreement that stipulates BNO passport holders do not enjoy UK residency.
China has repeatedly warned Britain to stay out of its affairs in Hong Kong.
The Chinese ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming had previously accused some British politicians of viewing Hong Kong “as part of the British empire”.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan waded into the hotly contested politics of the Pacific on Wednesday, donating face masks and thermal cameras to its four diplomatic allies there to combat the coronavirus in a region where China is challenging traditional power of the United States.
The small developing nations lie in the highly strategic waters of the Pacific, dominated since World War Two by the United States and its friends, who have been concerned over China’s moves to expand its footprint there.
Democratic Taiwan has faced intense pressure from China, which claims the island as its territory with no right to state-to-state ties, and is bent on wooing away its few allies.
Taiwan has only 15 formal allies left worldwide after losing two Pacific nations, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, to China in September.
Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic push into the Pacific, pledging virus aid and medical advice.
In its own aid programme, Taiwan has donated 16 million masks to countries around the world.
“We are a very small country, so it’s easier for us to work with Taiwan than mainland China,” Neijon Edwards, the Marshall Islands ambassador to Taiwan, told Reuters at the donation ceremony in Taipei.
China has been too overbearing, she added.
“It’s pressing too much, and it’s been trying to come to the Marshall Islands, several times, but up to this time we haven’t even opened the door yet.”
While the masks presented at the ceremony are going to Taiwan’s Pacific allies, all its 15 global allies are sharing the thermal cameras.
“Today’s ceremony once again shows that Taiwan is taking concrete actions not only to safeguard the health of Taiwanese people but also to contribute to global efforts to contain COVID-19,” said Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
Though Pacific Island states offer little economically to either China and Taiwan, their support is valued in global forums such as the United Nations and as China seeks to isolate Taiwan.
China has offered to help developing countries including those of the Pacific, and many see Chinese lending as the best bet to develop their economies.
But critics say Chinese loans can lead countries into a “debt trap”, charges China has angrily rejected.
The debt issue was a serious problem and would only lead to the spread of Chinese influence regionwide, said Jarden Kephas, the ambassador of Nauru.
“They will end up dominating or having a lot of say in those countries because of the amount of debt,” he told Reuters, wondering how the money could ever be repaid. “We are not rich countries.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Chief Executive Carrie Lam said the majority of Hong Kong’s cases had been imported
Hong Kong will quarantine all people arriving from abroad for 14 days, its leader Carrie Lam has said.
The restrictions, which will kick in on Thursday, will not apply to those from Macau or Taiwan. Entrants from mainland China already had to self-isolate.
Ms Lam said the majority of Hong Kong’s cases had been imported, adding that “strict measures” were needed.
Hong Kong has seen 57 new infections over the past two weeks, 50 of which were imported, said Ms Lam.
“If we exclude these imported, we only have seven local cases in the past week,” she said.
“If we do not impose strict measures, our previous efforts could be wasted.”
Ms Lam also advised residents to avoid all non-essential travel.
There are at least 155 confirmed cases in the territory, which detected its first cases in January.
The territory – a special administrative region of China – has so far been able to avoid the contagion seen elsewhere, thanks partly to a quick government response.
In January, cross-border travel with mainland China was slashed. Soon afterwards, health workers went on strike to demand a total border shutdown.
Some of the restrictions in the Asia-Pacific region, as of 17 March:
Australia – All travellers will have to self-isolate for 14 days. Foreign nationals who have been to China, Iran, Korea and Italy not allowed in
New Zealand – Everyone entering the country will have to self-isolate for 14 days. This excludes those from small Pacific islands with no confirmed virus cases
South Korea – Travellers from China’s Hubei province not allowed in. International arrivals from certain countries will need to submit papers on their health condition
Singapore – All visitors with travel history to France, Germany, Italy, Spain, South Korea and China banned from entering or transiting. Residents with recent history to these countries will have to self-isolate for 14 days. All those entering from Japan, Switzerland, the UK and Asean countries will have to self-isolate for 14 days
Malaysia – All foreign visitors have been banned, all Malaysians will not be allowed to travel overseas until 31 March. All returning Malaysians will have to self quarantine for 14 days
Japan – Ban on entry to travellers who have been to parts of China, South Korea, Iran or Italy in 14 days before arrival
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths outside China has now surpassed the number inside.
More than 100,000 people have been infected outside China, while just over 80,000 cases have been reported inside.
There have been more than 182,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus globally and over 7,000 deaths, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University.
Media caption Steps the NHS says you should take to protect yourself from Covid-19
It took China less than 70 years to emerge from isolation and become one of the world’s greatest economic powers.
As the country celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, we look back on how its transformation spread unprecedented wealth – and deepened inequality – across the Asian giant.
“When the Communist Party came into control of China it was very, very poor,” says DBS chief China economist Chris Leung.
“There were no trading partners, no diplomatic relationships, they were relying on self-sufficiency.”
Over the past 40 years, China has introduced a series of landmark market reforms to open up trade routes and investment flows, ultimately pulling hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
The 1950s had seen one of the biggest human disasters of the 20th Century. The Great Leap Forward was Mao Zedong’s attempt to rapidly industrialise China’s peasant economy, but it failed and 10-40 million people died between 1959-1961 – the most costly famine in human history.
This was followed by the economic disruption of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, a campaign which Mao launched to rid the Communist party of his rivals, but which ended up destroying much of the country’s social fabric.
‘Workshop of the world’
Yet after Mao’s death in 1976, reforms spearheaded by Deng Xiaoping began to reshape the economy. Peasants were granted rights to farm their own plots, improving living standards and easing food shortages.
The door was opened to foreign investment as the US and China re-established diplomatic ties in 1979. Eager to take advantage of cheap labour and low rent costs, money poured in.
“From the end of the 1970s onwards we’ve seen what is easily the most impressive economic miracle of any economy in history,” says David Mann, global chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Through the 1990s, China began to clock rapid growth rates and joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 gave it another jolt. Trade barriers and tariffs with other countries were lowered and soon Chinese goods were everywhere.
“It became the workshop of the world,” Mr Mann says.
Take these figures from the London School of Economics: in 1978, exports were $10bn (£8.1bn), less than 1% of world trade.
By 1985, they hit $25bn and a little under two decades later exports valued $4.3trn, making China the world’s largest trading nation in goods.
Poverty rates tumble
The economic reforms improved the fortunes of hundreds of millions of Chinese people.
The World Bank says more than 850 million people been lifted out of poverty, and the country is on track to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020.
At the same time, education rates have surged. Standard Chartered projects that by 2030, around 27% of China’s workforce will have a university education – that’s about the same as Germany today.
Rising inequality
Still, the fruits of economic success haven’t spread evenly across China’s population of 1.3 billion people.
Examples of extreme wealth and a rising middle class exist alongside poor rural communities, and a low skilled, ageing workforce. Inequality has deepened, largely along rural and urban divides.
“The entire economy is not advanced, there’s huge divergences between the different parts,” Mr Mann says.
The World Bank says China’s income per person is still that of a developing country, and less than one quarter of the average of advanced economies.
China’s average annual income is nearly $10,000, according to DBS, compared to around $62,000 in the US.
Slower growth
Now, China is shifting to an era of slower growth.
For years it has pushed to wean its dependence off exports and toward consumption-led growth. New challenges have emerged including softer global demand for its goods and a long-running trade war with the US. The pressures of demographic shifts and an ageing population also cloud the country’s economic outlook.
Still, even if the rate of growth in China eases to between 5% and 6%, the country will still be the most powerful engine of world economic growth.
“At that pace China will still be 35% of global growth, which is the biggest single contributor of any country, three times more important to global growth than the US,” Mr Mann says.
The next economic frontier
China is also carving out a new front in global economic development. The country’s next chapter in nation-building is unfolding through a wave of funding in the massive global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
The so-called new Silk Road aims to connect almost half the world’s populations and one-fifth of global GDP, setting up trade and investment links that stretch across the world.
Image copyright EPAImage caption China is getting dressed up for its big birthday party
One week from now, the People’s Republic of China will mark its 70th anniversary with celebrations on a scale not seen in China in decades.
Beijing is pulling out all stops and 1 October will be flush with fireworks, fanfare and a huge military parade.
To ensure it goes smoothly, authorities have been ramping up security in the capital – and online – for weeks.
But with yet more protests expected in Hong Kong, the territory might just rain on China’s parade.
What is it all about?
The birth of modern China was declared on 1 October 1949, after the communists under Mao Zedong won the civil war that followed World War Two.
Image copyright EPAImage caption Exhibitions are highlighting the achievements of the Communist Party
The date is marked every year, but celebrations for this 70th anniversary are expected to eclipse previous events.
It’s the first big anniversary since China has emerged as a global power. While 10 years ago China was a superpower in the making, it is now the world’s second largest economy, almost eye-to-eye with the United States.
What to expect?
The main celebrations will take place in the capital, Beijing, where there will be a grand military parade with “advanced weapons” on display, followed by a “mass pageant”.
President Xi Jinping – considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao – will address the Chinese people. His speech is expected to celebrate China’s rapid growth and which will be closely watched for any indication of the country’s direction in the coming years.
The president will also hand out honours for contributions to the country and in the evening there will be a grand gala and fireworks show.
All official Chinese celebrations are carefully choreographed and the success of this one is particularly important to the government.
The Dos and Don’ts
The parade – open to invited guests only – will take place around Tiananmen Square in central Beijing. The surrounding area will be practically under lockdown, and in fact has been so several times already.
During rehearsals leading up to the big day, hotels near Tiananmen Square told guests that for several hours each day, no-one would be able to leave the hotel or return to it should they be out, leading to much travel chaos and rebookings.
Many shops and restaurants in the centre are also closed or have shortened hours and some subway stations are temporarily shut.
Image copyright EPAImage caption Security is tight ensure the party goes to plan
Trains to Beijing are running numerous safety checks on their passengers and vehicles going into the city are also being tightly watched.
On the big day itself, areas around Tiananmen Square will be blocked and guarded. Local residents will need to identify themselves if they want to pass.
To ensure the sun will shine brightly on the celebration in notoriously polluted Beijing, several coal plants and construction sites in and around the city have been ordered to stop work for the duration.
There’s also a ban on any low-flying aerial vehicles in place. That means anything from light aircraft to drones, balloons and even racing pigeons.
Censorship galore
Across much of the city centre, there are national flags set up at every door. Voluntary inspectors are monitoring the streets and locals have told the BBC they’re being questioned after having even brief conversations with foreigners
One person said she was asked by an inspector: “Who were those foreigners? Why were they here?”
The tight control naturally extends online as well. Popular social media platform Weibo said it was deleting content that “distorts” or “insults” the country’s history ahead of the anniversary.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Every house and every shop is sporting a national flag
Chinese journalists are always expected to toe the party line anyway, but starting in October they will have to pass an extra test to prove they are versed particularly in Xi Jinping’s teachings, officially called Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, which has been written into the constitution.
Whether or not they pass the exam will then determine whether they’ll be accredited as journalists.
“The fundamental point with this ‘training’ and indoctrination process isn’t so much about the content,” David Bandurski of China Media Watch told the BBC.
“It is about reinforcing the message and understanding among journalists that they work, first and foremost, for the Chinese Communist Party, and serve its agenda.”
So not only will the events be choreographed – the domestic coverage of them will also be tightly guarded.
What about Hong Kong?
Despite Beijing’s determination to let its achievements shine on 1 October, there’s a good chance Hong Kong will pull focus.
Anti-Beijing protests always take place in Hong Kong on China’s National Day, but this time, the activists know that the world is watching.
Anti-government protests have rocked the city for months and the situation shows no sign of dying down.
Clashes between police and activists have been becoming increasingly violent, with police using tear gas and activists storming parliament.
Image copyright AFPImage caption The protests have often escalated into violent clashes
That means two things for 1 October: official celebrations in the territory are being toned down to avoid clashes – the annual fireworks display has been cancelled – while at the same time, activists are planning to step up their protests.
On Sunday 29 September, a “Global Anti Totalitarianism March” is scheduled to take place at various locations around the world in support of Hong Kong.
On 1 October itself, a march in central Hong Kong is planned with everyone asked to wear black.
If the past weeks’ demonstrations are anything to go by, the smiles and celebrations in Beijing will be competing for media space with pictures of tear gas and angry young protesters in Hong Kong.
Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU
Image copyright AFP
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 