Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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BEIJING (Reuters) – China announced on Wednesday that its parliament will open a key annual session on May 22, signalling that Beijing sees the country returning to normal after being reduced to a near-standstill for months by the COVID-19 epidemic.
During the gathering of the National People’s Congress in the capital, delegates will ratify major legislation, and the government will unveil economic targets, set defence spending projections and make personnel changes. The ruling Communist Party also typically announces signature policy initiatives.
The session was initially scheduled to start on March 5 but was postponed due to COVID-19, which has infected nearly 83,000 people and killed more than 4,600 on the mainland after emerging late last year in the central city of Wuhan.
As the epidemic has subsided, economic and social life gradually returned to normal, making it possible for the congress to convene, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the standing committee of the NPC, the legislature’s top decision-making body, as saying.
The committee also appointed Huang Runqiu as the new minister for ecology and environment, a post vacated when predecessor Li Ganjie became deputy Communist Party chief for Shandong province earlier this month, Xinhua reported.
Tang Yijun was also named as the new justice minister to replace Fu Zhenghua, who has reached the retirement age of 65 for ministers.
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body to parliament, has proposed starting its annual session a day before the parliamentary session opens.
Analysts expect China to roll out additional fiscal stimulus in order to cushion the blow from COVID-19, which has developed in to a worldwide pandemic that some fear will trigger a severe global recession.
China’s economy contracted for the first time on record during the January-March period, when the government imposed severe travel and transport restriction to curb the spread of the epidemic.
Parliament is also expected to discuss the anti-government protests in Hong Kong, amid growing speculation that Beijing take steps to strengthen its grip on the city.
It is unclear how long parliament and its advisory body will meet for this time, and people familiar with the matter have told Reuters that this year’s annual sessions could be the shortest in decades due to COVID-19 concerns. Usually more than 5,000 delegates descend on Beijing from all over China for at least 10 days.
Beijing city plans to ease quarantine rules as early as Thursday, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters, ahead of the key political meetings.
People arriving in the capital from other parts of China will no long have to be quarantined for two weeks unless they come from high-risk areas such as Heilongjiang in the north and some parts of Guangdong in the southeast, the sources said.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Delhi’sair quality has improved remarkably during the shutdown
When India shut down last month and suspended all transport to contain the spread of coronavirus, the skies over its polluted cities quickly turned an azure blue, and the air, unusually fresh.
As air pollution plummeted to levels unseen in living memory, people shared pictures of spotless skies and even Himalayan peaks from cities where the view had been obscured by fog for decades.
On one social messaging group, a resident of the capital, Delhi, which regularly records some of the foulest air in the world, celebrated the city’s “alpine weather“. Politician and author Shashi Tharoor wrote that the “blissful sight of blue skies and the joy of breathing clean air provides just the contrast to illustrate what we are doing to ourselves the rest of the time”.
Media caption India coronavirus lockdown cleans up Ganges river
Less than six months ago, Delhi was gasping for breath. Authorities said air quality had reached “unbearable levels”. Schools were shut, flights were diverted, and people were asked to wear masks, avoid polluted areas and keep doors and windows closed.
Delhi and 13 other Indian cities feature on a list of the world’s 20 most polluted. It is estimated that more than a million Indians die every year because of air pollution-related diseases. Industrial smoke, vehicular emissions, burning of trash and crop residue, and construction and road dust are the major contributors.
As urban Indians gazed at the skies and breathed clean air inside their homes, researchers hunkered down to track data on how the grinding lockdown – now extended to 3 May – was impacting air pollution across the country.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Lucknow is another city on the top 20 world’s most polluted list
“This was an unprecedented opportunity for us to take a close look at how air pollution levels have responded to an extraordinary development,” Sarath Guttikunda, who heads Urban Emissions, an independent research group that provides air quality forecasts, told me.
Dr Guttikunda and his team of researchers looked at the data spewed out by the 100-odd air quality monitoring stations all over India. They decided to concentrate on the capital Delhi and its suburbs – a massive sprawl called the National Capital region, where more than 20 million people live. Last winter, air pollution here had reached more than 20 times the World Health Organization’s safe limit.
Image copyright HINDUSTAN TIMESImage caption The financial capital Mumbai also seems very different
The deadliest particle in Delhi’s foul air is the tiny but deadly PM 2.5, which increases the likelihood of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. They primarily come from combustion – fires, automobiles and power plants.
Urban Emissions found the levels of PM 2.5 in Delhi during the lockdown plummeted to 20 micrograms per cubic metre with a 20-day average of 35.
To put this into context, between 2017 and 2019, the monthly average of PM 2.5 in the capital was up to four times higher. (The national standard is set at 40, and the WHO has an annual average guideline of just 10 micrograms per cubic metre.)
“If 35 is the average lowest available PM2.5 with limited local emissions, it means that at least 70% of the pollution is locally generated,” Mr Guttikunda told me.
Media caption India coronavirus lockdown cleans up Ganges river
His study also found a marked dip in PM 10, caused mainly by road and construction dust, and nitrogen dioxide, which comes mainly from vehicular emissions, and nearly 90% of vehicles are off the road.
“The current crisis has shown us that clear skies and breathable air can be achieved very fast if concrete action is taken to reduce burning of fossil fuels,” says Sunil Dahiya, of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which has also been tracking air pollution levels during the lockdown.
But will this prompt change? After all, urban Indians’ and the media’s panic and outrage during the deadly winter pollution every year soon gets lost in the fog of summer heat and concerns over monsoon rains and droughts.
“We don’t yet have a democratic demand for clean air,” Arunabha Ghosh, Chief Executive Officer of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a leading climate think tank, told me. Orders to clean up the air have almost always come from the courts, responding to pleas by NGOs.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Pollution in Delhi peaks during winter
However, Dr Ghosh still hopes that “the experience of blue skies and fresh air could be a trigger to create a democratic demand for clean air in India”.
Crises often trigger life changing reforms. A fatal four-day “pea-souper” that engulfed London in 1952 and killed thousands provoked the passing of the Clean Air Act to reduce the use of smoky fuels.
China tried to clean up its air several times before hosting marquee international events – like the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the World Expo in Shanghai and the Guangzhou Asian Games in 2010 – before sliding back to grey, smoky skies.
But many believe the 2014 Apec meeting in Beijing, when China hosted 21 heads of Asia-Pacific economies, was a turning point. The rare blue skies over Beijing spawned the phrase ‘Apec blue‘. In a rush to clean its air, China introduced a set of far-reaching measures. Over the next four years, this resulted in a 32% drop in average pollution across major Chinese cities.
So could a lockdown to prevent the spread of a pandemic, which has imperilled the health and livelihoods of millions, trigger similar policy changes to clean up India’s air?
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The movement for clean air has been sporadic and mainly pushed by NGOs
Could it move to a shift in reducing traffic on the road by asking people to work from home in shifts now that millions have experienced clean air for the first time in years? (Facing energy shortages after the loss of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, Japan unleashed a Cool Biz campaign to cut down air conditioning in workplaces and reduce carbon emissions by asking office workers to shed their suits.)
Or can India use some of the money from an inevitable stimulus to help kick-start the economy go towards helping green industries? Renewables, experts say, creates more jobs than coal: India has already created nearly 100,000 jobs in solar and wind energy firms.
Can the country use the windfall revenues accruing from the steep decline in oil prices – most of India’s oil is imported – to provide rebates to polluting factories to set up much-needed emission control equipment?
“We have to learn lessons to deploy the economic recovery from the pandemic. We need growth, jobs and sustainable development,” says Dr Ghosh. Cleaning up the air could be the key. For too long, India – and Indians – have ignored their right to breathe easy.
What’s more, if China can reduce air pollution by 32% in four-and-a-half years, why can’t India pledge to reduce pollution by 80% in 80 cities by 2027, which is our 80th anniversary of Independence? asks Dr Ghosh.
Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues
Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics.
But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.
A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence.
She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.
She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.
“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.
brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland
, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources,
to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”.
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
Beijing ‘unlikely to intervene’ in Hong Kong as pressure mounts on police
But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted.
“As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”
He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement.
Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.
A satellite image appears to show a close-up of Chinese military vehicles at Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen. Photo: Maxar Technologies
Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed.
“There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States.
“If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”
China rejects requests for US warships to visit Hong Kong amid protests Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.
“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.
While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily.
“National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said.
“It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 