Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
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Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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Li Zhanshu, chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, meets with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines, also co-chair of the U.S. House of Senate U.S.-China Working Group, and U.S. Senator David Perdue in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 2, 2019. (Xinhua/Ding Haitao)
BEIJING, Sept. 2 (Xinhua) — Top legislator Li Zhanshu met with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines and Senator David Perdue here on Monday.
Commending their long-term efforts to promote the development of bilateral relations and exchanges between the legislative bodies, Li, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), said this year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.
He said history has proven that China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation and a healthy China-U.S. relationship meets the common interests of both countries and the world.
China is committed to the road of peaceful development and upholds an opening strategy featuring mutual benefit and win-win results, said Li, adding that the NPC is ready to work with the U.S. Congress to enhance cooperation and to properly handle differences and sensitive issues through dialogue and constructive means.
Daines, also co-chair of the U.S. House of Senate U.S.-China Working Group, and Perdue said U.S.-China relations are one of the most important bilateral relations in the world and members from the working group are ready to make efforts to promote mutual understanding between the two governments and the two peoples.
Wang Chen, vice chairperson of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, met with Daines and Perdue earlier in the day.
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, was 49.5 in August
Figure adds to a month of woe for policymakers in Beijing, even ahead of planned US tariff increases on September 1, October 1, and December 15
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell by 0.2 points in August as the trade war continued to bite. Photo: Xinhua
As the trade war with the United States continues to gather pace, manufacturers in China remain gloomy about their prospects, with the sector activity contracting for the fourth successive month in August.
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday, stood at 49.5 in August, down from a reading of
, and below analysts’ expectations. The median result of a survey of analysts by Bloomberg expected a reading of 49.6.
The PMI is a gauge of sentiment among factory operators, with 50 being the demarcation line between expansion and contraction in sector activity. In the survey, manufacturers are asked to give a view on business issues such as export orders, purchasing, production and logistics.
That the index has remained in contractionary territory for six of eight months this year shows that the effects of US tariffs are resonating through the Chinese economy. The manufacturing PMI only showed expansion in March and April of this year.
New and higher US tariffs scheduled to enter force on September 1, October 1 and December 15 could provide some very temporary boost to Chinese exports and therefore manufacturers, should they inspire American buyers to make early purchases to pay lower tariff rates. However the long term trajectory is negative, with many manufacturers scoping out or already relocating to production sites outside the world’s second largest economy.
Also released on Saturday was the official non-manufacturing PMI, a survey of the construction and services sectors. This stood at 53.8, up from 53.7 in July, showing that these sectors have remained more robust in the face of a general slowdown in China’s economy. The Bloomberg survey of analysts had expected non-manufacturing PMI in August to remain unchanged.
Composite PMI, a combined reading of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, was 53, down from 53.1 in July.
The August PMI decline “indicates downward pressure on the economy,” said Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which produces the index with the NBS.
“Corporations’ forecasts of the market outlook were quite poor while being cautious on their production operations,” Zhang said. The PMI indicated a drop in new orders, which also reflected a lack of domestic demand. Given that the US is escalating tensions with China, downward pressure on external demand is also apparent, Zhang said.
August was a month to forget for policymakers in Beijing, with a series of negative data highlighting the serious economic challenges facing the nation. With the trade war threatening to tip the global economy into a recession, China remains heavily exposed.
The trade war is having a significant impact on Chinese manufacturing. Photo: Xinhua
While exports grew by 3.3 per cent in July, a sign of front-loading, imports fell by 5.6 per cent, emphasising the issues with consumption in China. This problem was also clear in retail sales figure, which came in at a disappointing 7.6 per cent for July, down from 9.8 per cent growth in June.
US president likely had Beijing ‘on his mind’ when he made his audacious offer, diplomat says
Proposal ‘could be interpreted as a very clear signal’ to China and Denmark that the US sees Greenland as part of an exclusive strategic zone, academic says
China has been building closer ties with Greenland in recent years. Photo: Reuters
US President Donald Trump’s eyebrow-raising idea to buy Greenland from Denmark last month epitomised what analysts say is Washington’s fear of the growing interplay of Chinese money, Russian aggression and Arctic political division.
Of all the countries involved in the region, Denmark is feeling the most heat, and not just because Trump recently cancelled a trip and called its Prime Minister Mette Frederikse “nasty” for describing his plan to buy the world’s largest island “absurd”.
Over the past few years, both of Denmark’s self-ruled governments – Greenland and the Faroe Islands – have increasingly turned to China for commercial deals, adding weight to Beijing’s growing strategic influence in the vast area that forms the common backyard of Europe, North America and Russia.
Russia seeks Chinese support in developing Arctic shipping routes
Greenland is of particular concern to the White House and the Pentagon as it is home to the US Thule Air Force Base, located far above the polar circle and which served as the first line of defence during the cold war.
Nowadays, the island is also strategically important for the US ballistic missile early warning system, as the shortest route from Europe to North America goes via the ice-cloaked, resource-rich territory.
“Though it’s difficult to tell the motivations of President Trump, he likely had China on his mind with his Greenland offer,” said a Beijing-based diplomat, who asked not to be named.
The US was likely to step up its presence in Greenland in the future, the person said.
In May, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China and Russia of introducing a strategic power struggle into the Arctic region and described Beijing’s behaviour there as aggressive.
When Greenland signalled an interest in engaging a Chinese state-owned company to build two airports in 2017 – the island’s prime minister flew to Beijing to appeal for financial backing – Copenhagen stepped in amid US pressure, reluctantly agreeing to finance the projects from the public coffers.
Denmark’s reluctance stems from a long-standing mistrust between Copenhagen and Greenland, as the island’s quest for economic development is viewed by the Danes as an attempt to shore up capital to push for a future independence movement.
“There is no doubt that the US foreign and security policy community is becoming far more interested in Greenland as a strategic asset,” said Andreas Bøje Forsby, a researcher at the University of Copenhagen’s Nordic Institute of Asian Studies.
“Proposing to buy Greenland could be interpreted as a very clear signal to both China and Denmark that Greenland is part of an exclusive American strategic zone,” he said.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederikse described Donald Trump’s plan to buy Greenland as “absurd”. Photo: Reuters
The government of the Faroe Islands – an archipelago located between Scotland, Norway and Iceland – has a similar readiness to engage with China but for a different purpose.
Unlike Greenland, there are no immediate political movements calling for independence from Denmark, making its overall relationship with Copenhagen more amiable.
This month, the Faroese government will open a liaison office in Beijing, located within the Danish embassy.
“Our top priority is to have a free-trade agreement with China,” Sigmundur Isfeld, the first head of the Faroe Islands’ representation to Beijing, said.
US defence report flags China’s expanding military reach in the Arctic
With Norway – a key competitor of the Faroes in the fishing and export industries – eyeing a similar arrangement with China, the time was ripe to clinch a deal, he said.
“It is a challenge for us … we need to get in the game.”
Although part of Denmark, the Faroe Islands are not part of the European Union and therefore have to form separate trade agreements with other countries.
“For example, there is an EU-Japan economic partnership agreement. It covers all EU nations, but it does not cover the Faroe Islands,” Isfeld said.
Trade between Greenland and China totalled US$126 million in 2108. Photo: AFP
China, for its part, has sought to exert its economic and cultural influence on the Faroes, which has a population of about 52,000 people.
, the embattled Chinese telecoms giant, has been working with the islands’ main telecoms provider for four years and is said to be finalising a plan for 5G upgrades across the archipelago.
Beijing also helped fund a project for a Chinese-Faroese dictionary.
With a population of about 56,000 people, Greenland is one of China’s smallest trading partners. In the first seven months of 2019, trade between the two was US$126 million, with Chinese imports of fish accounting for the bulk of the total.
The Greenland government’s annual political and economic report for 2019 said that strong demand for metals from China had contributed to mineral and mining projects in the country, though China’s transition to a less mineral-intensive economy could spell trouble for the future of the sector.
The island’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3 per cent this year, according to the report, with seafood – principally cod, halibut and prawns – set to continue to be its chief export.
The end of the Arctic as we know it
China’s attempts in recent years to expand its involvement in Greenland have run into roadblocks.
In 2016, a Chinese mining company expressed interest in taking over an abandoned marine station in Grønnedal, an offer that the Danish government turned down the following year. A Chinese state-owned construction company had also offered to build airports in Greenland, but withdrew its offer this year.
Also this year, China expanded its involvement in exporting from Kvanefjeld, one of the world’s largest deposits of rare earths and uranium, by creating a joint venture to process and export the resources.
Beijing has made clear its strategic ambitions in the region. Early last year, it unveiled its Polar Silk Road strategy, plotting the course for its future development goals in the region – including scientific, commercial, environmental preservation and resource extraction efforts.
It also aligned its Arctic interests with its Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese companies are encouraged to invest in building infrastructure along the routes and conduct commercial trial voyages to gauge feasibility.
Putin boasts of nuclear icebreaker fleet as he outlines Arctic expansion plans
Anders Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister and erstwhile Nato secretary general, said in an article published in Atlantic magazine last month that with melting ice caps opening the Arctic Sea to shipping, Arctic sea lanes “will likely become another flashpoint of renewed competition among the great powers as climate change alters our world”.
It was a situation he said he found “regrettable, but inevitable”.
“Both China and Russia are interested in getting a foothold in Greenland, to expand their influence in the Arctic region,” Rasmussen said. “Instead of being a source of contention,
Greenland should serve to highlight how many interests the United States and Denmark have in common.”
Researchers say system should allow them to track any sound-emitting source – from nuclear subs to whales – using a simple listening device mounted on a buoy, underwater drone or ship
Breakthrough builds on previous work by team from Beijing and San Diego
A new AI system developed by Chinese and US scientists could make detecting nuclear submarines possible even in unknown waters. Photo: Xinhua
Scientists from China and the United States have developed a new artificial intelligence
-based system that they say will make it easier to detect submarines in uncharted waters.
The technology builds on earlier work by the team, led by Dr Niu Haiqiang from the Institute of Acoustics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, which saw them develop a deep-learning algorithm that could improve the speed and precision of detection.
The algorithm, however, needs a large amount of data to work, so its use is limited to waters that have already been fully charted. In contrast, the upgrade works in all waters, charted or otherwise.
Even killer whales will be unable to hide from the new technology. Photo: Reuters
Niu and his colleagues, who included scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, started by developing a simulator to generate a wide range of virtual environments from which the algorithm was able to learn.
Once it had assimilated that information, the simulator was able to analyse real-life data taken from the world’s oceans and seas, the team said in a paper published in the July issue of The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America.
It is now able to help a single hydrophone locate more than 80 per cent of underwater targets within an uncharted area with a margin of error of less than 10 metres (33 feet), the paper said.
Chinese monitoring devices installed near US submarine base
The researchers said the new technology should allow them to track any sound-emitting source – be it a nuclear submarine, a whale or even an emergency beeper from a crashed aircraft – using a simple listening device mounted on a buoy, underwater drone or ship.
The scientists worked together to improve the sensitivity and accuracy of passive underwater surveillance technology, according to the academy’s website.
The new technology might also be able to detect emergency beepers from crashed aircraft. Photo: AFP
Locating targets in unfamiliar waters is challenging because the AI relies on environmental data parameters such as underwater currents and seabed landscapes.
But obtaining such information is not easy, and often impossible.
For instance, the United States does not allow China to collect information in waters close to its west coast, while Beijing forbids the US from getting too close to its military facilities in the South China Sea.
Murder suspect ‘caught by AI software that spotted dead person’s face’
Professor Zhang Renhe, a researcher at the Institute of Acoustics who was not involved in the study, said the latest development was encouraging.
“AI can be a useful assistant to underwater target recognition,” he said. “In a way it is similar to the speech recognition technology on our mobile phones.”
But he said scientists were still wrestling with exactly how the technology worked.
“It is like a black box with some inner workings that are still unexplained,” he said.
Researchers were now working on ways to combine the new AI technology with the physical models for underwater target detection that have been developed in recent decades, Zhang said.
“This is a new frontier for fundamental science,” he said. “It requires international cooperation.”
Gao Feng, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC), gestures at a press conference in Beijing, capital of China, Aug. 29, 2019. (Xinhua/Pan Xu)
BEIJING, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) — The economic and trade negotiation teams of China and the United States have maintained effective communication and are discussing to have a meeting in the United States in September, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday.
“It is of great importance right now to create the necessary conditions for the two sides to continue consultations,” MOC spokesperson Gao Feng said at a press conference.
If the Chinese team visits the United States for consultations next month, both sides should make joint efforts and create conditions to push for progress in their negotiations, Gao said.
He said China is lodging solemn representations with the United States over the latter’s decision to raise the additional tariffs on 550 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese imports.
“We hope the United States can meet China halfway and properly solve the economic and trade disputes between the two countries on the basis of equality and mutual respect,” Gao said.
It follows Beijing’s decision earlier this month to turn down an application for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong
The countries have traded barbs about the handling of anti-government protests in the city
The US has had port visits denied by Chinese authorities twice this month. Photo: Alamy
A US Navy warship was denied a port visit to the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao on Sunday, the US Indo-Pacific Command said on Wednesday.
The request denial comes at a time of heightened tensions between China and the United States, with the countries engaged in a prolonged trade dispute and a war of words over anti-government protests in Hong Kong.
“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] denied the US Navy’s request to visit the Qingdao Port,” Commander Reann Mommsen, public affairs officer for the US Seventh Fleet, said in a statement on Wednesday.
Mommsen declined to name the warship denied entry or when the request was refused, referring questions about the reasons to Beijing.
The blocked visit was first reported by Reuters, which cited an anonymous US defence official as saying that China had denied the request for the destroyer before the intended visit on Sunday.
It is the second time in a month that China has prevented US Navy vessels making a port call.
On August 13, the United States Pacific Fleet said China had denied requests for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong.
The USS Green Bay, an amphibious dock landing ship, had been due to make a port call in Hong Kong on August 17, and the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie was scheduled to visit next month, according to Nate Christensen, deputy spokesman for the Pacific Fleet.
A source close to the Chinese navy confirmed the Qingdao rejection, saying it was “normal practice” based on the current China-US relationship.
“Hasn’t the [US’] application to visit Hong Kong just been rejected?” the source asked.
Hong Kong has seen 12 weeks of anti-government protests, triggered by a now-shelved
that would have allowed criminal suspects to be transferred to mainland China.
Beijing has increasingly suggested
the protests are being funded by the West, a claim the US has called “ludicrous”
.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said the refusal was a natural result of the worsening bilateral ties between China and the US.
“Many bilateral exchanges are bound to deteriorate when countries’ ties worsen, such as during the China-US trade war. And now coupled with the Hong Kong unrest, many exchanges [between China and the US] have been downgraded,” Zhou said.
Liu Weidong, from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, echoed Zhou’s view and said a visit from the US warship would be meaningless at present.
“Now the US is very provocative … so China doesn’t want to welcome its warship,” Liu said.
Doubt has been cast on whether trade talks between the two countries are set to resume, with Beijing’s foreign ministry contradicting US President Donald Trump’s claim that China had sought a return to the negotiating table.
The countries had been due to speak on Tuesday, according to a previous statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce after their last telephone call on August 13. But there has been no announcement so far from either side on whether such a conversation took place.
Last week, China said it would levy retaliatory tariffs of 5 to 10 per cent on US$75 billion worth of US goods. The Trump administration responded by announcing a tariff increase from 25 to 30 per cent on US$250 billion of Chinese goods, and from 10 to 15 per cent on US$300 billion worth of Chinese products.
The US also designated Beijing as a currency manipulator, raising fears of an economic cold war between the two countries.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, reads a congratulatory letter to the 2019 Smart China Expo sent by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the expo’s opening ceremony in southwest China’s Chongqing Municipality, Aug. 26, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Quanchao)
CHONGQING, Aug. 26 (Xinhua) — Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Monday called for seizing the new opportunities in technological development and promoting the healthy development of the intelligent industry.
Liu, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, made the remarks at the 2019 Smart China Expo that opened Monday in southwest China’s Chongqing Municipality.
At the opening ceremony, he read a congratulatory letter from President Xi Jinping.
The letter fully demonstrated that the president attaches great importance to the development of intelligent industry, and pointed the direction for the sector’s healthy development, Liu said.
Noting that China’s economy is switching from high-speed growth to high-quality development, Liu said the country’s dynamic microfundations and sufficient macro-policy tools can ensure the sound fundamentals of its economic development.
China’s intelligent industry is developing rapidly and emerging as a new economic growth point, Liu said.
To promote the sector’s development, efforts must be centered on promoting the well-being of humanity, maintain a balance between efficiency and job creation, respect and protect individual privacy, and uphold the ethical and moral bottom line, he said.
In underscoring China’s willingness to advance international cooperation in the intelligent sector, Liu said China welcomes enterprises from all over the world, including the United States, to invest and operate in China.
The country will continue to create an appealing investment environment and strengthen protection of property rights and intellectual property rights, he said.
China is willing to resolve problems calmly through consultation and resolutely opposes the escalation of the trade war, Liu said, adding that any escalation will run against the interests of the people of China, the United States and the whole world.
The Chief Economic Adviser, K Subramanian, disagreed with the idea of industry-specific incentives and argued for structural reforms in land and labour markets. Members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic advisory council sound inchoate, resorting to social media and opinion editorials to counter one another.
In essence, the quibble among the members of the economic team of Mr Modi and his government is not about whether India is facing an economic slowdown or not, but about how grave the current economic crisis is.
To put all this in context, it was less than just two years ago, in November 2017, that the global ratings agency Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign ratings – an independent assessment of the creditworthiness of a country – for the first time in 14 years.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionSales of cars and SUVs have slumped to a seven-year low
Justifying the upgrade, Moody’s had then argued that the economy was undergoing dramatic “structural” reforms under Mr Modi.
In the two years since, Moody’s has downgraded its 2019 GDP growth forecast for India thrice – from 7.5% to 7.4% to 6.8% to 6.2%.
The immediate questions that arise now are: is India’s economic condition really that grim and, if yes, how did it deteriorate so rapidly?
To make matters worse, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her first budget recently with some ominous tax proposals that threatened foreign capital flows and dented investor confidence. It sparked criticism and Ms Sitharaman was forced to roll back many of her proposals.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption In 2016, India withdrew 85% of all currency notes from the economy
So, it is indeed true that India is facing a sharp economic downturn and severe loss of business confidence.
The alarm over the economic condition is not merely a reflection of a slowdown in GDP growth but also the poor quality of growth.
Private sector investment, the mainstay of sustainable growth in any economy, is at a 15-year low.
In other words, there is almost no investment in new projects by the private sector. The situation is so bad that many Indian industrialists have complained loudly about the state of the economy, the distrust of the government towards businesses and harassment by tax authorities.
But India’s economic slowdown is neither sudden nor a surprise.
Behind the fawning headlines in the press over the past five years about the robustness of India’s growth was a vulnerable economy, straddled with massive bad loans in the financial sector, disguised further by a macroeconomic bonanza from low global oil prices.
India’s largest import is oil and the fortuitous decline in oil prices between 2014 and 2016 added a full percentage point to headline GDP growth, masking the real problems. Confusing luck with skill, the government was callous about fixing the choked financial system.
Media caption What is really happening with India’s economy?
This move destroyed supply chains and impacted agriculture, construction and manufacturing that together account for three-quarters of all employment in the country.
Before the economy could recover from the currency ban shock, the government enacted a transition to a new indirect taxation system of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017. The GST rollout wasn’t smooth and many small businesses initially struggled to understand it.
Such massive external shocks to the economy, coupled with a reversal in low oil prices, dealt the final blow to the economy. Millions of Indians started to lose their jobs and rural wages remained stagnant. This, in turn, impacted consumption, slowing down the economy sharply.
Not easy
The wobbly state of the economy has also thrown government finances in disarray: tax revenues are much below expectations.
On Monday, the government got a much-needed breather when India’s central bank announced a $24bn (£19bn) one-time payout for the cash-starved government. (This amount is more than the dividend paid by the central bank to the government in all five years of the Congress rule between 2009 and 2014.)
The solutions to the economic crisis are not easy.
Indian industry, fed and fattened with government protection through decades, is once again clamouring for tax cuts and financial incentives.
But it is not clear that such benefits will revive private sector investment and domestic consumption immediately.
For all the hype about the Make in India programme, hailed as the harbinger of the country’s emergence as a manufacturing power, India’s dependence on China for goods has only doubled in the past five years.
India today imports from China the equivalent of 6,000 rupees ($83; £68) worth of goods for every Indian, which has doubled from 3,000 rupees in 2014.
So, India is neither making goods for itself nor for the world.
Image copyright AFPImage caption India’s agrarian crisis is a major stumbling block
Ornamental tax and other fiscal incentives to specific industries are not suddenly going to make Indian manufacturers competitive and stop India’s addiction for affordable Chinese goods. If any, the trade spat between China and the United States only saw countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh benefit and not India.
More currency or trade tariffs are not the solutions either. The central bank has lowered interest rates and there is some push to lowering the cost of capital for industry. But again, Indian industry will invest more only when demand for goods and services increases. And demand will increase only when wages increase, or there is money in the hands of people.
So, the only immediate solution for India seems to be to boost consumption through a stimulus given directly to people, in the classical Keynesian mould.
Of course, such a stimulus should be combined with reforms to boost business morale and confidence.
In sum, India’s economic picture is not pretty.
It is important for India’s political leadership to see this not-so-pretty picture and not hide behind rose tinted glasses. Prime Minister Modi has a unique electoral mandate to embark on bold moves to truly transform the economy and pull India out of the woods.
A recent joint exercise in Tajikistan is the latest example of Beijing’s growing security and economic interests in the former Soviet republic
Analysts say Moscow may not be happy about China’s growing reach in the lawless, mountainous area and will be keeping an eye on the situation
Chinese and Tajik troops completed a joint exercise earlier this month in the mountainous region of Gorno-Badakhshan. Photo: Xinhua
China is increasing its military and economic presence in parts of central Asia that Russia has traditionally considered its sphere of influence – a development some analysts believe could cause concern in Moscow.
While Russia’s influence remains strong in many former Soviet republics, China is steadily building up its military and economic influence in Tajikistan, particularly in the remote, mountainous areas on its western borders where central government authority is weak.
Chinese troops recently concluded a joint drill in eastern Tajikistan involving 1,200 troops from both countries.
The eight-day exercise that finished on August 13 was conducted in the autonomous Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region, a sparsely populated territory in the high Pamir mountains, which borders China’s Xinjiang region and Afghanistan.
China has been increasing its security presence in the strategically sensitive region. Photo: Xinhua
Although this year’s exercise involved fewer troops than the 10,000 involved in a previous drill three years ago, it tested the use of advanced aerial vehicles and ground reconnaissance technology to monitor the area.
The landlocked country is strategically important for China, which is worried that the porous borders will serve as an entry point for drugs and Islamic militants into Xinjiang, where its deradicalisation strategy has led to the detention of a million Muslim minorities in reeducation camps.
It also sits along the trade routes China hopes to develop under the Belt and Road Initiative – Beijing’s flagship plan to expand its global influence through infrastructure, trade and investment – but the area has long been plagued by lawlessness and outbreaks of violence.
The recent exercise tested aerial surveillance techniques. Photo: Xinhua
Artyom Lukin, a professor of international politics at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said Russia was not happy about the deployment of Chinese forces in Tajikistan.
“Russia has traditionally considered Central Asia, including Tajikistan, as its sphere of political-military influence,” he said.
Observers said other Central Asian republics – such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan – are likely to stay within Moscow’s orbit, but China is steadily building closer security ties with Tajikistan.
In February, China’s defence ministry denied that it was building a base and stationing troops in the country, but defended its closer military cooperation with Tajikistan.
The recent training exercise was conducted in an area Russia has long seen as part of its sphere of influence. Photo: Xinhua
China has long-standing security interests in the country and in 2016 it agreed to finance 11 border outposts and a training centre for guards along the Afghan border.
This was part of a deal Beijing made through the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism – which also involves Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan – to strengthen cooperation in combating terrorism and improving security.
China has also overtaken Russia economically, becoming the largest foreign investor in Tajikistan in 2016, accounting for 30 per cent of Tajikistan’s total direct accumulated investments, state news agency Xinhua reported.
Banned Muslim political party blamed for deadly attack on tourists in Tajikistan
China’s direct investment in Tajikistan was worth US$95 million in 2017, according to the latest available figures. China has also grown to become the country’s third largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching around US$1.5 billion in 2018.
A recent opinion piece published by the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik suggested China may be “getting carried away” by its investments in the region.
The article suggested that China’s growing presence in the country could lead to a “partial loss” of Tajikistan’s sovereignty and argued that Beijing may want to take control of the border with Afghanistan.
China also has economic interests to protect. Photo: Xinhua
But Lukin said even though this growing involvement may be an irritant for Russia, the strategic partnership between China and Russia will remain strong.
The two countries remain the key players in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an economic and security alliance that includes the Central Asian republics and India and Pakistan.
Why Chinese investors are struggling to gain a foothold in Tajikistan
Lukin said: “Moscow no doubt understands that in terms of security, Tajikistan’s border, adjacent to China’s Xinjiang and Afghanistan, is truly a vital concern for Beijing.
“The presence of Chinese troops could actually benefit Russia, because it will be China bearing the costs of policing Tajikistan’s mountainous border areas.”
Stephen Blank, a former professor at the US Army War College and a specialist in Eurasian security, said that while Russia has mostly stayed silent about China’s presence in Tajikistan, it was closely watching the situation.
“What happens in the long run depends on how far China goes to extend its military presence in Central Asia. And if it keeps extending, it may well provoke some expression of concern in Russia beyond the silence that has hitherto been the case,” Blank said.
Chinese troops could play an increasing role in policing the area in future. Photo: Xinhua
“[The recent drills] look like conventional war-fighting exercises as much as anti-terrorist operations and suggest that China may have bigger contingencies than anti-terrorism in mind.”
Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia programme at the Institut Montaigne, a French think tank, said both Russia and China share similar concerns about terrorism and drug trafficking in Central Asia.
He said Russia had not objected to the security pact with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan because there are more important strategic priorities in China-Russia relations.
“Overall, Russia’s acceptance of a security role for China in Central Asia shows how Russia realistically adjusts to the changing balance of power with China, and is able to avoid a zero-sum game on issues where parallel efforts by China and Russia can serve Russian security interests,” he said.
HANOI (Reuters) – A Chinese survey vessel on Saturday extended its activities to an area closer to Vietnam’s coastline, ship tracking data showed, after the United States and Australia expressed concern about China’s actions in the disputed waterways.
The Haiyang Dizhi 8 vessel first entered Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) early last month where it began a weeks-long seismic survey, triggering a tense standoff between military and coastguard vessels from Vietnam and China.
The Chinese vessel continued to survey Vietnam’s EEZ on Saturday under escort from at least four ships and was around 102 kilometres (63 miles) southeast of Vietnam’s Phu Quy island and 185 kilometres (115 miles) from the beaches of the southern city of Phan Thiet, according to data from Marine Traffic, a website that tracks vessel movements.
The Chinese vessel group was followed by at least two Vietnamese naval vessels, according to the data.
Vietnam’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment.
A country’s EEZ typically extends up to 200 nautical miles (370 kilometres or 230 miles) from its coastline, according to an international UN treaty. That country has sovereign rights to exploit any natural resources within that area, according to the agreement.
Vietnam and China have for years been embroiled in a dispute over the potentially energy-rich stretch of waters and a busy shipping lane in the South China Sea.
China’s unilaterally declared “nine-dash line” marks a vast, U-shaped, expanse of the South China Sea that it claims, including large swathes of Vietnam’s continental shelf where it has awarded oil concessions.
On Friday, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and his Australian counterpart expressed their concern about China’s activities in the South China Sea, known in Vietnam as the East Sea.
Earlier in the week, the United States said it was deeply concerned about China’s interference in oil and gas activities in waters claimed by Vietnam, and that the deployment of the vessels was “an escalation by Beijing in its efforts to intimidate other claimants out of developing resources in the South China Sea”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, in response to the U.S. statement, said Washington was “sowing division and had ulterior motives”.
“The aim is to bring chaos to the situation in the South China Sea and damage regional peace and stability. China is resolutely opposed to this,” Geng told a daily news briefing on Friday.
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