Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
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People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
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The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
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At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
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According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
‘I felt excited and proud of myself,’ says restaurant owner and former volunteer ambulance driver Xiang Yafei
‘I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine,’ he says
Wuhan restaurant owner Xiang Yafei says he wasn’t afraid to be a coronavirus vaccine guinea pig. Photo: Handout
With more than 1.5 million confirmed cases around the world and over 88,000 deaths, the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus is hotting up.
According to the World Health Organisation, about 35 companies and academic institutions are currently working on candidate products. Among the front-runners are China’s CanSino Biologics and Moderna Therapeutics in the United States, both of which have begun phase one clinical trials.
In China, those tests, which started on March 19, involve 108 volunteers from Wuhan, the city in which the virus that causes Covid-19 was first detected.
Among them is 30-year-old restaurant owner Xiang Yafei, who spoke to the South China Morning Post about his experiences so far.
Why did you apply to be a vaccine trial volunteer?
I had been doing various voluntary jobs since the end of January when Wuhan was put under lockdown. In the middle of March, one of my friends who knew about the vaccine study asked if I would be interested in joining.
At first I was afraid because there was uncertainty [about the vaccine]. I asked around and some of my friends said there was some risk to being a candidate as I’d be injected with some kinds of virus, but I felt better after I did some research about it online.
Before joining the clinical trials, Xiang worked as a volunteer ambulance driver. Photo: Handout
Also, because the vaccine was developed by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences [a research unit of the People’s Liberation Army] and CanSino, I thought its safety should be guaranteed, as I have confidence in the PLA because several of my relatives are former soldiers. So I agreed to join the trial but didn’t tell my parents because I didn’t want to worry them.
I went to the research team’s office on March 16 and filed my application – that was before they officially announced they were recruiting volunteers on the internet. While I was at the office, I was lucky to meet Major General Chen Wei, the team leader, who explained about the development of the vaccine and assured me that it wouldn’t damage my body. That boosted my confidence.
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When did you receive your injection and how did you feel at that time?
I was given mine on the morning of March 19 and immediately put into quarantine for 14 days at a PLA facility. My number in the volunteer group is 006, meaning I was the sixth person to get the vaccine. Before the injection, I underwent a strict physical check-up. I later learned that more than 5,200 people had applied to be volunteers.
Receiving the vaccine was no different to any other injection I’d had before in my life. I didn’t feel any pain and it only lasted about 10 seconds.
But in my heart, I felt excited and proud of myself. I understand that the vaccine will be an important part in battling this coronavirus and testing it is part of the preparations before it can be put on the market.
Xiang (right) said team leader Chen Wei (left) told him about the development of the vaccine and assured him he would come to no harm. Photo: Handout
As volunteers, our job is to work together with the scientists. After all, academician Chen [the major general is also a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering] and six members of her team have also been injected with the vaccine, and she was the first person to receive it.
They didn’t show any bad symptoms, so at that moment, I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine.
And how has your health been since receiving the vaccine?
I had a fever, 37.6 degrees, for the first two days. It was like catching a normal cold, with symptoms of fatigue and drowsiness. But from the third day, my condition improved and I was basically in good health.
The 108 volunteers are divided into three streams, with each receiving either a low, medium or high dose of the drug. I was in the low group so only got one dose. Volunteers in the medium group also got one and the high group were given two shots. As far as I know, everyone was fine after receiving their injections.
When will your trial result be available?
After my quarantine period ended on April 2, I was given a CAT scan and the researchers took a sample of my blood for testing. They said it would be two weeks before they could tell if there were coronavirus antibodies in my bloodstream.
I am not sure if they will tell me the result, but over the next five months I have to do four more blood tests to see if I have antibodies and how long they might remain in my blood.
What did you do to keep yourself entertained during the quarantine period?
It was just rest for me. Before then I’d been a volunteer ambulance driver in Wuhan, working every day taking coronavirus patients to hospital. I’d been really busy for more than a month, so the 14-day quarantine period gave me a chance to relax and catch up on some sleep.
I really enjoyed my time there thanks to the meals I was given, which were nutritious and varied.
The volunteers had to stay in their rooms and we were not allowed to visit each other. We were also told to check our temperature every day and to report any symptoms. I read books and exercised in my room. Some of the volunteers practised calligraphy, some played football with their toilet paper rolls, some jogged, some composed songs, and some made videos about their life in quarantine and uploaded the clips to social media. We did everything just in our own rooms.
Chinese firm CanSino Biologics is one of the front-runners in the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Photo: Handout
So what was it like working as an ambulance driver?
It was a race against time trying to get people to hospital as quickly as I could. But I felt a real sense of purpose.
At first, I didn’t want to do such work. I was scared because all the patients had been confirmed or were suspected of being infected, and they were contagious.
I was told that no one wanted to be an ambulance driver, but I had a licence to drive a minivan so I decided to do it. I think we young people should make a contribution to society, especially during this difficult time and in our home city and home province, so I applied.
Also, [each day at work] I took a gourd with me. It is called hulu in Mandarin and has auspicious implications in Chinese, as hu sounds similar to fu, which means good luck.
How was your restaurant business affected by the epidemic?
I lost about half a million yuan (US$70,000) because of it. I decided to shut my restaurant down on January 21, two days before the official lockdown, because there had been rumours it was coming and I wanted my workers to be able to leave Wuhan and return to their hometowns.
Right now I’m making preparations to reopen my restaurant, which means a lot of cleaning and disinfecting, and thinking about serving all my customers again.
So how did you feel when the lockdown was lifted on Wednesday?
The situation in Wuhan is getting better. We are proud of what we did for this city. We hope the coronavirus cases can drop to zero soon and our lives can get back to normal.
The country’s only new infections confirmed in the past two days have been imported from overseas, suggesting containment measures worked
But there are still likely to be infected people with mild or no symptoms, and questions over how the data was compiled, experts say
A makeshift hospital in Wuhan, converted from a sports arena, closed on Sunday after its last patients were discharged. Photo: Xinhua
China reached an apparent milestone this week in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing zero new non-imported infections on Thursday and Friday, but experts said the figures needed to be treated with caution.
After reporting thousands of daily new infections for much of February, China had a sharp decline this month while the wider world experienced the opposite trend as the coronavirus spread.
As China closes makeshift coronavirus hospitals in the outbreak’s initial epicentre of Wuhan because of a lack of patients, and eases some quarantine restrictions in the city and the broader Hubei province, there is consensus that its unprecedented measures changed the direction of the epidemic, offering hope for other countries.
But there are concerns over whether China’s rock-bottom case numbers reflect the full picture in the country. The high incidence of mild cases of Covid-19 is one reason, health experts said, warning that there could be infected people who were not counted but still able to spread the disease.
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“It is important that China is doing a good job testing and screening throughout the country to ensure that there are no pockets of infection remaining,” virologist Jeremy Rossman, of Britain’s University of Kent, said, adding that the news was “exciting” but needed to be “treated with caution”.
“With many of these cases having mild to no symptoms, ensuring that the whole country remains prepared and is actively looking for new cases is essential,” he said. “While it is possible there are no new cases, it is also very possible that somewhere in the country there are mildly infected people.”
Missing mild cases, and those infected but showing no symptoms, are a “legitimate concern”, according to Xi Chen, an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health.
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“Eighty per cent of cases have mild symptoms, so zero cases is a milestone, but not the end of the epidemic in China,” he said. Patients with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic can still spread the disease to others, he added, and this needed to be monitored carefully in the coming weeks.
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China has come under scrutiny for how it treats asymptomatic cases. The National Health Commission excludes patients who test positive yet show no symptoms from its number of confirmed cases, although it monitors those cases when it knows of them.
The extent to which asymptomatic carriers contribute to spreading the disease is yet to be understood by scientists.
In addition, Hubei province in mid-February changed how it classified its confirmed cases, which caused a surge in infection numbers. This decision, which allowed doctors to diagnose a person by a clinical examination, not only by a positive laboratory test, was later reversed, leaving confusion about the true extent of the disease.
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Other commentators said it could not be ignored that political considerations may play a part as China looks to highlight its communist governance model and portray itself as a global leader in combating the disease.
“We are in the midst of the most intensive propaganda operation of the [Communist] Party state in living memory, in trying to project its success in dealing with the virus,” Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute, said. “That narrative requires statistical backup.
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“I’m not saying [the zero number] is necessarily wrong; I’m simply saying we don’t know. What we do know is that there is now a political imperative for the statistics to be [low], and now we have statistics that serve the political imperative.”
Data can be trusted when it comes with transparency about how it was collected, so that it can be independently evaluated, Tsang said.
Nis Gruenberg, an analyst with Berlin-based independent think tank the Mercator Institute for China Studies, said that the numbers could be viewed as an “indicator” of a reduction of cases in China.
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“Some [Western critics] have been saying China and its system are ill-equipped to handle this outbreak, and now the Chinese government is trying to invert that argument and say, ‘Look at you, you are not doing it well enough,’” Gruenberg said.
The message from the Chinese government that it has succeeded in containing the virus may “politicise” the figures and is a potential driver for under-reporting around the country, according to Gruenberg.
“If history is any guide in China then there is a massive history of under-reporting for various reasons, both within the system and internationally,” he said. “I’m sceptical that this is the true number, or that anyone really knows the true number.”
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 