Archive for ‘analysts’

29/04/2020

China parliament to open key session on May 22 as epidemic subsides

BEIJING (Reuters) – China announced on Wednesday that its parliament will open a key annual session on May 22, signalling that Beijing sees the country returning to normal after being reduced to a near-standstill for months by the COVID-19 epidemic.

During the gathering of the National People’s Congress in the capital, delegates will ratify major legislation, and the government will unveil economic targets, set defence spending projections and make personnel changes. The ruling Communist Party also typically announces signature policy initiatives.

The session was initially scheduled to start on March 5 but was postponed due to COVID-19, which has infected nearly 83,000 people and killed more than 4,600 on the mainland after emerging late last year in the central city of Wuhan.

As the epidemic has subsided, economic and social life gradually returned to normal, making it possible for the congress to convene, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the standing committee of the NPC, the legislature’s top decision-making body, as saying.

The committee also appointed Huang Runqiu as the new minister for ecology and environment, a post vacated when predecessor Li Ganjie became deputy Communist Party chief for Shandong province earlier this month, Xinhua reported.

Tang Yijun was also named as the new justice minister to replace Fu Zhenghua, who has reached the retirement age of 65 for ministers.

The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body to parliament, has proposed starting its annual session a day before the parliamentary session opens.

Analysts expect China to roll out additional fiscal stimulus in order to cushion the blow from COVID-19, which has developed in to a worldwide pandemic that some fear will trigger a severe global recession.

China’s economy contracted for the first time on record during the January-March period, when the government imposed severe travel and transport restriction to curb the spread of the epidemic.

Parliament is also expected to discuss the anti-government protests in Hong Kong, amid growing speculation that Beijing take steps to strengthen its grip on the city.

It is unclear how long parliament and its advisory body will meet for this time, and people familiar with the matter have told Reuters that this year’s annual sessions could be the shortest in decades due to COVID-19 concerns. Usually more than 5,000 delegates descend on Beijing from all over China for at least 10 days.

Beijing city plans to ease quarantine rules as early as Thursday, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters, ahead of the key political meetings.

People arriving in the capital from other parts of China will no long have to be quarantined for two weeks unless they come from high-risk areas such as Heilongjiang in the north and some parts of Guangdong in the southeast, the sources said.

Source: Reuters

28/04/2020

China discounts, cheaper iPhone to cushion Apple from virus blow to demand

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) discounts on the iPhone 11 in China and the release of a new low-price SE model have put the company in a better position than rivals to weather a coronavirus-related plunge in global smartphone demand.

While China, which accounts for roughly 15% of Apple’s revenue, appears to be a rare bright spot, investors will be keen to get a picture of global demand when the Cupertino, California-headquartered company reports second-quarter results on Thursday.

The iPhone maker has shut retail stores in the United States and Europe following the COVID-19 outbreak, and China is the only major market where it has been able to reopen all shops.

Consumer spending is expected to be muted as the pandemic has crippled economies and Apple, the world’s second-most valuable tech company, is better armed with the launch of its new price-conscious iPhone model, analysts said.

“Apple is better positioned than most to experience a rapid recovery in a post COVID world,” Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note. “We see demand as pushed out, not canceled.”

He added that the launch of the $399 iPhone SE suggested that Apple’s supply chain was getting back on its feet after weeks of shutdown earlier this year.

Analysts expect Apple to report a 6% drop in revenue and an 11% fall in net income in its fiscal second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.

On the other hand, Chinese brands such as Oppo and Vivo who have steadily moved to offer high-end models to challenge iPhones, stand to lose marketshare as bargain hunters choose Apple.

Earlier this month, several online retailers in China slashed prices of the iPhone 11 by as much as 18% – a tactic Apple has used in the past to boost demand. And while initial social media reaction to the new iPhone SE was muted, analysts said they were seeing a pick up in demand.

The cheaper iPhone SE could tempt iPhone owners to opt for a newer device, something they might have otherwise delayed in a weak economy, said Nicole Peng, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Canalys.

“People want to avoid uncertainty in a downturn,” she said. “Having a brand like Apple that can showcase quality and make people less worried about breakdowns or after-sales service can bring in buyers.”

CHEAP IS GOOD

Early data suggests that the Chinese smartphone market is recovering rapidly in the aftermath of the virus, and Apple has emerged relatively unscathed.

Sales of iPhones in China jumped 21% last month from a year earlier and more than three fold from February, government data showed, meaning March-quarter sales in the country were likely to have slipped just 1%.

To be sure, a recovery in Chinese demand won’t offset sales lost in the United States and Europe. And the company is yet to launch a smartphone enabled with 5G wireless technology like those offered by Asian rivals, a disadvantage for Apple so far.

But those same expensive 5G models may not sell well in the current climate of frugality, analysts said.

“If there are no massive subsidies (in China), I doubt there will be many smartphone users who will be eager to upgrade to 5G,” said Linda Sui, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Strategy Analytics.

Sui expects iPhone shipments in 2020 to be down 2 percentage points at the most, versus double digit declines at Chinese firms.

Apple also has revenue from its services business to fall back on. It has leveraged its large iPhone customer base to boost services revenue from music, apps, gaming and video.

“Apple’s Services segment should remain resilient in today’s work-from-home environment, thereby demonstrating the durability of Apple’s model,” Cowen analyst Krish Sankar said.

Source: Reuters

25/04/2020

Coronavirus: China’s belt and road plan may take a year to recover from slower trade, falling investment

  • But trade with partner countries might not be as badly affected as with countries elsewhere in the world, observers say
  • China’s trade with belt and road countries rose by 3.2 per cent in the January-March period, but second-quarter results will depend on how well they manage to contain the pathogen, academic says
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
The coronavirus pandemic is set to cause a slump in Chinese investment in its signature

Belt and Road Initiative

and a dip in trade with partner countries that could take a year to overcome, analysts say.

But the impact of the health crisis on China’s economic relations with nations involved in the ambitious infrastructure development programme might not be as great as on those that are not.
China’s total foreign trade in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 6.4 per cent year on year, according to official figures from Beijing.
Trade with the United States, Europe and Japan all dropped in the period, by 18.3, 10.4 and 8.1 per cent, respectively, the commerce ministry said.
By comparison, China’s trade with belt and road countries increased by 3.2 per cent in the first quarter, although the growth figure was lower than the 10.8 per cent reported for the whole of 2019.
China’s trade with 56 belt and road countries – located across Africa, Asia, Europe and South America – accounts for about 30 per cent of its total annual volume, according to the commerce ministry.

Despite the first-quarter growth, Tong Jiadong, a professor of international trade at Nankai University in Tianjin, said he expected China’s trade with belt and road countries to fall by between 2 and 5 per cent this year.

His predictions are less gloomy than the 13 to 32 per cent contraction in global trade forecast for this year by the World Trade Organisation.

“A drop in [China’s total] first-quarter trade was inevitable but it slowly started to recover as it resumed production, especially with Southeast Asian, Eastern European and Arab countries,” Tong said.

“The second quarter will really depend on how the epidemic is contained in belt and road countries.”

Nick Marro, Hong Kong-based head of global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said he expected China’s total overseas direct investment to fall by about 30 per cent this year, which would be bad news for the belt and road plan.

“This will derive from a combination of growing domestic stress in China, enhanced regulatory scrutiny over Chinese investment in major international markets, and weakened global economic prospects that will naturally depress investment demand,” he said.

The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed, while infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the Payra coal-fired power plant, have been put on hold.

The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
Marro said the reduction of capital and labour from China might complicate other projects for key belt and road partner, like Pakistan, which is home to infrastructure projects worth tens of billions of US dollars, and funded and built in large part by China.

“Pakistan looks concerning, particularly in terms of how we’ve assessed its sovereign and currency risk,” Marro said.

“Public debt is high compared to other emerging markets, while the coronavirus will push the budget deficit to expand to 10 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] this year.”

Last week, Pakistan asked China for a 10-year extension to the repayment period on US$30 billion worth of loans used to fund the development of infrastructure projects, according to a report by local newspaper Dawn.

China’s overseas investment has been falling steadily from its peak in 2016, mostly as a result of Beijing’s curbs on capital outflows.

Last year, the direct investment by Chinese companies and organisations other than banks in belt and road countries fell 3.8 per cent from 2018 to US$15 billion, with most of the money going to South and Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Tong said the pandemic had made Chinese investors nervous about putting their money in countries where disease control measures were becoming increasingly stringent, but added that the pause in activity would give all parties time to regroup.

“Investment in the second quarter will decline and allow time for the questions to be answered,” he said.

“Past experience along the belt and road has taught many lessons to both China and its partners, and forced them to think calmly about their own interests. The epidemic provides both parties with a good time for this.”

Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten, a senior research fellow at Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, said China’s post-pandemic strategy for the belt and road in Europe
might include a shift away from investing in high-profile infrastructure projects like ports and airports.
Investors might instead cooperate with transport and logistics providers rather than invest directly, he said.
“Even though in the coming years the amount of money China loans and invests abroad may be lower than in the peak years around 2015-16, I expect it to maintain the belt and road plan as its overall strategic framework for its foreign economic relations,” he said.
Source: SCMP
21/04/2020

Coronavirus: China still seen as good opportunity for expansion by some foreign firms despite Covid-19

  • Israeli medical equipment firm IceCure Medical, with an initial US$4 million sales and marketing effort, will open its first Chinese office in Shanghai
  • English shopping outlet company Value Retail sees the chance to lure consumers who have been under lockdowns aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus
Foreign firms, including Israeli medical equipment maker IceCure Medical and English shopping outlet company Value Retail, still see opportunities in China despite the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Foreign firms, including Israeli medical equipment maker IceCure Medical and English shopping outlet company Value Retail, still see opportunities in China despite the coronavirus. Photo: AFP

Not only has the coronavirus pandemic not watered down one company’s expansion plans for China, it has given it even greater reason to push forward into the Chinese market.

Israeli company IceCure Medical is forging ahead with opening its first Chinese office in Shanghai, with plans to spend up to US$4 million for the initial sales and marketing effort for its non-surgical breast cancer treatments.

Chief executive Eyal Shamir said he has seen an uptick in Chinese interest in the company’s ProSense product, which allows the freezing of tumours outside a hospital environment, because it can free up facilities badly needed for Covid-19 patients.

The government approval of the company’s Chinese subsidiary is now only days away following a successful product console registration, according to Shamir, and it has already sold two units to the Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Centre for a clinical study.

World Health Organisation warns the ‘worst still ahead’ in coronavirus pandemic
“We are planning a full launch of the product in China for both breast cancer and breast benign tumours as well as other organs,” Shamir said.

“Post Covid-19, there will be a backlog of many surgeries and not only for breast cancer patients.”

IceCure Medical, though, is not the only foreign company eyeing expansion into China despite the risk of secondary outbreaks of coronavirus.

West of Shanghai, English shopping outlet company Value Retail is also expanding its retail space, banking on Chinese shoppers re-emerging from lockdowns to begin

spending again.

After being cooped at home for weeks, people want to be outdoors to enjoy the beautiful spring weather – Value Retail

Value Retail is proceeding with plans to enlarge its Suzhou Village shopping centre from 35,000 square metres (378,000 sq ft) to over 50,000 square metres, while also increasing the number of shops from 120 to 200, which will make it the largest of the 11 venues its controls globally.

It is working closely with the Yang Cheng Lake Peninsula government on a date for construction to start, after seeing a surprising increase in retail sales at its centres in early April. The company’s Chinese subsidiary, Value Retail China, attributed the rise to an increasing number of consumers wanting to “get outside” of their homes after being isolated for several weeks.

Suzhou Village sales have increased 40 per cent each week since the start of April, the company said.

“Thanks to the positive recovery [in spending] over the past several weeks, we are going ahead with the Suzhou Village expansion,” the company said in a statement. “After being cooped at home for weeks, people want to be outdoors to enjoy the beautiful spring weather. We provide a shopping experience for guests in an outdoor environment … the motivation for such an experience after isolation is huge. [Being] outdoors is seen as a luxury now.”

In addition, customers are flocking to both its Suzhou and Shanghai Village centres as a form of domestic tourism because of the curb on overseas travel, Value Retail China said.

Despite the economic destruction that the coronavirus pandemic has caused in China, it also is opening up expansion opportunities for entrepreneurial firms in several industries, such as e-commerce and online delivery, life sciences and infrastructure construction, said EY Asia-Pacific transaction advisory services leader Harsha Basnayake.
However, while businesses within Asia-Pacific expressed a desire for opportunistic expansions, most companies still held a pessimistic view of economic recovery that would drag on into 2021.
American companies already operating in China were even less optimistic with over 70 per cent of businesses surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in March saying they were reluctant about expanding in the coming year.

Although it is too early to say if retail property will rise – particularly when we are seeing new habits forming, going from shopfronts to online and how far this new behaviour will stick. China will gives us lots of lessons on this. – Harsha Basnayake

“We are expecting opportunities in real estate, particularly in commercial property and logistics, and we think industries in life sciences, some parts of health care and infrastructure will be interesting,” Basnayake said.
“Although it is too early to say if retail property will rise – particularly when we are seeing new habits forming, going from shopfronts to online and how far this new behaviour will stick. China will gives us lots of lessons on this.”
The Chinese government’s move to increase infrastructure spending to boost the economy will also benefit certain industries, such as cement production.
Despite suffering a 24 per cent drop in sales in the first quarter due to virus-related delays in construction activities, China’s largest cement manufacturer, Anhui Conch Cement, is likely to move forward with plans to expand in part due to its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, according to analysts at S&P Global.

Though no one would be able to tell exactly what will happen when the Covid-19 uncertainties are not completely gone, signs of recovery in China have brought encouragement to us – Justin Channe

Desires to expand are also not limited to these industries, and even the hard-hit hotel industry is starting to show green shoots.
International hotel chain IHG said that the coronavirus would not derail its new Regent-branded hotel project in Chengdu, which is expected to start construction later this year.

“Though no one would be able to tell exactly what will happen when the Covid-19 uncertainties are not completely gone, signs of recovery in China have brought encouragement to us,” said Regent Hotels & Resorts managing director Justin Channe.

“While we saw business pickup across China over the past Qing Ming Festival holiday, Chengdu and its nearby destinations were among the leading ones. In the long run, we stay confident of the outlook for the China hotel industry, including the luxury segment.”

Analysing how coronavirus broke China’s historic economic growth run
Beyond the crisis, there will be ample opportunities for new merger and acquisitions (M&A) amid business restructures and failures, particularly in China, Basnayake added.

A new EY survey found 52 per cent of Asia-Pacific businesses planned on pursuing M&A in the next year.

“While the crisis is having a severe impact on M&A sentiment, there’s evidence from the survey that M&A activity intentions remain steady in the long term. There are many who recognise this is a time where valuations will be reset, and there will be stressed and distressed acquisition opportunities,” Basnayake said.

“For example, from our interviews with corporations in China, a majority said that Covid-19 has not impacted their M&A strategies, noting that the situation has not led to any cancellations or withdrawals from deals, but only in delays in closing deals.”

Source: SCMP

21/04/2020

South Korea, China cast doubt on reports North Korean leader Kim gravely ill

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean and Chinese officials on Tuesday cast doubt on reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was ill after media outlets said he had undergone a cardiovascular procedure and was in “grave danger”.

Daily NK, a Seoul-based speciality website, reported late on Monday, citing one unnamed source in North Korea, that Kim was recovering after undergoing the procedure on April 12. The North Korean leader is believed to be about 36.

CNN cited a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the matter as saying Washington was “monitoring intelligence” that Kim was in grave danger after surgery. Bloomberg quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying the White House was told that Kim took a turn for the worse after the surgery.

However, two South Korean government officials rejected the CNN report without elaborating on whether Kim had undergone surgery. The presidential Blue House said there were no unusual signs coming from the reclusive, nuclear-capable state.

Kim is the unquestioned leader of North Korea and the sole commander of its nuclear arsenal. He has no clear successor and any instability in the country could be a major international risk.

The state KCNA news agency gave no indication of the whereabouts of Kim in routine dispatches on Tuesday, but said he had sent birthday gifts to prominent citizens.

An official at the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, which deals with North Korea, told Reuters the source did not believe Kim was critically ill. China is North Korea’s only major ally.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Beijing was aware of reports about the health of Kim, but said it does not know their source, without commenting on whether it has any information about the situation.

South Korean shares exposed to North Korea tumbled and the Korean won fell on the reports. The won traded down more than 1% against the dollar even as South Korean government sources said Kim was not gravely ill.

U.S. stock futures were trading 0.5% lower, but it was not clear how much of that weakness was owing to the collapse in U.S. oil prices and consequent concerns over global demand.

Daily NK said Kim had been admitted to hospital on April 12, just hours before the cardiovascular procedure, as his health had deteriorated since August due to heavy smoking, obesity and overwork.

It said he was now receiving treatment at a villa in the Mount Myohyang resort north of the capital Pyongyang.

“My understanding is that he had been struggling (with cardiovascular problems) since last August but it worsened after repeated visits to Mount Paektu,” a source was quoted as saying, referring to the country’s sacred mountain.

Accompanied by senior North Korean figures, Kim took two well-publicised rides on a stallion on the snowy slopes of the mountain in October and December.

KIM’S HEALTH KEY TO STABILITY

An authoritative U.S. source familiar with internal U.S. government reporting on North Korea questioned the CNN report that Kim was in “grave danger”.

“Any credible direct reporting having to do with Kim would be highly compartmented intelligence and unlikely to leak to the media,” a Korea specialist working for the U.S. government said on condition of anonymity.

Japan’s top government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, declined to comment on the reports of Kim’s health.

“We are regularly gathering and analysing information about North Korea with great concern,” he said. “We will keep gathering and analysing information regarding North Korea by collaborating with other countries such as the U.S.”

Kim’s potential health issues could fuel uncertainty over the future of the reclusive state’s dynastic rule and stalled denuclearisation talks with the United States, issues in which Kim wields absolute authority.

With no details known about his young children, analysts say his sister and loyalists could form a regency until a successor is old enough to take over.

Speculation about Kim’s health first arose following his absence from the anniversary of the birthday of its founding father and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.

On April 12, North Korean state media reported that Kim Jong Un had visited an airbase and observed drills by fighter jets and attack aircraft.

Two days later North Korea launched multiple short-range anti-ship cruise missiles into the sea and Sukhoi jets fired air-to-surface missiles as part of military exercises.

The missile launches were part of the celebrations for Kim’s grandfather, Seoul officials said, but there was no North Korea state media report on his attendance or the tests.

Reporting from inside North Korea is notoriously difficult, especially on matters concerning the country’s leadership, given tight controls on information. There have been false and conflicting reports in the past on matters related to its leaders.

Kim is a third-generation hereditary leader who rules North Korea with an iron-fist, taking over the titles of head of state and commander in chief of the military since late 2011.

In recent years Kim has launched a diplomatic offensive to promote both himself as a world leader and his hermit kingdom, holding three meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump, four with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and five with China’s President Xi Jinping.

He was the first North Korean leader to cross the border into South Korea to meet Moon in 2018. Both Koreas are technically still at war, as the Korean War of 1950-53 ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

Kim has sought to have international sanctions against his country eased, but has refused to dismantle his nuclear weapons programme, a steadfast demand by the United States.

Source: Reuters

 

18/04/2020

Coronavirus: China outbreak city Wuhan raises death toll by 50%

Medical staff from Jilin Province (in red) hug nurses from Wuhan after the Covid-19 lockdown was lifted, 8 April 2020Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption The Chinese city of Wuhan recently lifted its strict quarantine measures

The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.

Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.

It has been accused of downplaying the severity of its virus outbreak.

Wuhan’s 11 million residents spent months in strict lockdown conditions, which have only recently been eased.

The latest official figures bring the death toll in the city in China’s central Hubei province to 3,869, increasing the national total to more than 4,600.

China has confirmed nearly 84,000 coronavirus infections, the seventh-highest globally, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

The virus has had a huge impact on the Chinese economy, which shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year.

What’s China’s explanation for the rise in deaths?

In a statement released on Friday, officials in Wuhan said the revised figures were the result of new data received from multiple sources, including records kept by funeral homes and prisons.

Deaths linked to the virus outside hospitals, such as people who died at home, had not previously been recorded.

Media caption Learn how Wuhan dealt with the lockdown

The “statistical verification” followed efforts by authorities to “ensure that information on the city’s Covid-19 epidemic is open, transparent and the data [is] accurate”, the statement said.

It added that health systems were initially overwhelmed and cases were “mistakenly reported” – in some instances counted more than once and in others missed entirely.

A shortage of testing capacity in the early stages meant that many infected patients were not accounted for, it said.

A spokesman for China’s National Health Commission, Mi Feng, said the new death count came from a “comprehensive review” of epidemic data.

In its daily news conference, the foreign ministry said accusations of a cover-up, which have been made most stridently on the world stage by US President Donald Trump, were unsubstantiated. “We’ll never allow any concealment,” a spokesman said.

Why are there concerns over China’s figures?

Friday’s revised figures come amid growing international concern that deaths in China have been under-reported. Questions have also been raised about Beijing’s handling of the epidemic, particularly in its early stages.

In December 2019, Chinese authorities launched an investigation into a mysterious viral pneumonia after cases began circulating in Wuhan.

Banner image reading 'more about coronavirus'
Banner

China reported the cases to the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN’s global health agency, on 31 December.

But WHO experts were only allowed to visit China and investigate the outbreak on 10 February, by which time the country had more than 40,000 cases.

The mayor of Wuhan has previously admitted there was a lack of action between the start of January – when about 100 cases had been confirmed – and 23 January, when city-wide restrictions were enacted.

Around that time, a doctor who tried to warn his colleagues about an outbreak of a Sars-like virus was silenced by the authorities. Dr Li Wenliang later died from Covid-19.


Analysis box by Stephen McDonell, China correspondent

Wuhan’s death toll increase of almost exactly 50% has left some analysts wondering if this is all a bit too neat.

For months questions have been asked about the veracity of China’s official coronavirus statistics.

The inference has been that some Chinese officials may have deliberately under-reported deaths and infections to give the impression that cities and towns were successfully managing the emergency.

If that was the case, Chinese officials were not to know just how bad this crisis would get in other countries, making its own figures now seem implausibly small.

The authorities in Wuhan, where the first cluster of this disease was reported, said there had been no deliberate misrepresentation of data, rather that a stabilisation in the emergency had allowed them time to revisit the reported cases and to add any previously missed.

That the new death toll was released at the same time as a press conference announcing a total collapse in China’s economic growth figures has led some to wonder whether this was a deliberate attempt to bury one or other of these stories.

Then again, it could also be a complete coincidence.


China has been pushing back against US suggestions that the coronavirus came from a laboratory studying infectious diseases in Wuhan, the BBC’s Barbara Plett Usher in Washington DC reports.

US President Donald Trump and some of his officials have been flirting with the outlier theory in the midst of a propaganda war with China over the origin and handling of the pandemic, our correspondent says.

Mr Trump this week halted funding for the World Health Organization (WHO), accusing it of making deadly mistakes and overly trusting China.

“Do you really believe those numbers in this vast country called China, and that they have a certain number of cases and a certain number of deaths; does anybody really believe that?” Mr Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.

French President Emmanuel Macron has also questioned China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, saying it was “naive” to suggest the country had dealt better with the crisis, adding things “happened that we don’t know about”.

On Thursday, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “We’ll have to ask the hard questions about how [coronavirus] came about and how it couldn’t have been stopped earlier.”

But China has also been praised for its handling of the crisis and the unprecedented restrictions that it instituted to slow the spread of the virus.

WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has hailed China for the “speed with which [it] detected the outbreak” and its “commitment to transparency”.

Source: The BBC

17/04/2020

Coronavirus: China outbreak city Wuhan raises death toll by 50%

Medical staff from Jilin Province (in red) hug nurses from Wuhan after the Covid-19 lockdown was lifted, 8 April 2020Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption The Chinese city of Wuhan recently lifted its strict quarantine measures

The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.

Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.

It has been accused of downplaying the severity of its virus outbreak.

Wuhan’s 11 million residents spent months in strict lockdown conditions, which have only recently been eased.

The latest official figures bring the death toll in the city in China’s central Hubei province to 3,869, increasing the national total to more than 4,600.

China has confirmed nearly 84,000 coronavirus infections, the seventh-highest globally, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

The virus has had a huge impact on the Chinese economy, which shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year.

What’s China’s explanation for the rise in deaths?

In a statement released on Friday, officials in Wuhan said the revised figures were the result of new data received from multiple sources, including records kept by funeral homes and prisons.

Deaths linked to the virus outside hospitals, such as people who died at home, had not previously been recorded.

Media caption Learn how Wuhan dealt with the lockdown

The “statistical verification” followed efforts by authorities to “ensure that information on the city’s Covid-19 epidemic is open, transparent and the data [is] accurate”, the statement said.

It added that health systems were initially overwhelmed and cases were “mistakenly reported” – in some instances counted more than once and in others missed entirely.

A shortage of testing capacity in the early stages meant that many infected patients were not accounted for, it said.

A spokesman for China’s National Health Commission, Mi Feng, said the new death count came from a “comprehensive review” of epidemic data.

In its daily news conference, the foreign ministry said accusations of a cover-up, which have been made most stridently on the world stage by US President Donald Trump, were unsubstantiated. “We’ll never allow any concealment,” a spokesman said.

Why are there concerns over China’s figures?

Friday’s revised figures come amid growing international concern that deaths in China have been under-reported. Questions have also been raised about Beijing’s handling of the epidemic, particularly in its early stages.

In December 2019, Chinese authorities launched an investigation into a mysterious viral pneumonia after cases began circulating in Wuhan.

Banner image reading 'more about coronavirus'
Banner

China reported the cases to the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN’s global health agency, on 31 December.

But WHO experts were only allowed to visit China and investigate the outbreak on 10 February, by which time the country had more than 40,000 cases.

The mayor of Wuhan has previously admitted there was a lack of action between the start of January – when about 100 cases had been confirmed – and 23 January, when city-wide restrictions were enacted.

Around that time, a doctor who tried to warn his colleagues about an outbreak of a Sars-like virus was silenced by the authorities. Dr Li Wenliang later died from Covid-19.


Analysis box by Stephen McDonell, China correspondent

Wuhan’s death toll increase of almost exactly 50% has left some analysts wondering if this is all a bit too neat.

For months questions have been asked about the veracity of China’s official coronavirus statistics.

The inference has been that some Chinese officials may have deliberately under-reported deaths and infections to give the impression that cities and towns were successfully managing the emergency.

If that was the case, Chinese officials were not to know just how bad this crisis would get in other countries, making its own figures now seem implausibly small.

The authorities in Wuhan, where the first cluster of this disease was reported, said there had been no deliberate misrepresentation of data, rather that a stabilisation in the emergency had allowed them time to revisit the reported cases and to add any previously missed.

That the new death toll was released at the same time as a press conference announcing a total collapse in China’s economic growth figures has led some to wonder whether this was a deliberate attempt to bury one or other of these stories.

Then again, it could also be a complete coincidence.


But China has also been praised for its handling of the crisis and the unprecedented restrictions that it instituted to slow the spread of the virus. WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has hailed China for the “speed with which [it] detected the outbreak” and its “commitment to transparency”.

US President Donald Trump this week halted funding for the WHO, accusing it of making deadly mistakes and overly trusting China.

“Do you really believe those numbers in this vast country called China, and that they have a certain number of cases and a certain number of deaths; does anybody really believe that?” Mr Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.

French President Emmanuel Macron has also questioned China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, saying it was “naive” to suggest the country had dealt better with the crisis, adding things “happened that we don’t know about”.

On Thursday, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “We’ll have to ask the hard questions about how [coronavirus] came about and how it couldn’t have been stopped earlier.”

Source: The BBC

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