Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
A customer buys products at a time-honoredfood store in east China’s Shanghai Municipality, April 26, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Xiang)
Twelve cases were domestically transmitted, with 11 reported in Jilin Province and the other one in Hubei Province.
BEIJING, May 10 (Xinhua) — Chinese health authority said Sunday that it received report of 14 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on the Chinese mainland Saturday, of which two were imported cases reported in Shanghai.
Twelve cases were domestically transmitted, with 11 reported in Jilin Province and the other one in Hubei Province, the National Health Commission said in a daily report.
One new suspected case imported from abroad was reported in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
No deaths were reported Saturday on the mainland, according to the commission.
On Saturday, 74 people were discharged from hospitals after recovery, while the number of severe cases decreased by two to 13.
As of Saturday, the overall confirmed cases on the mainland had reached 82,901, including 148 patients who were still being treated, and 78,120 people who had been discharged after recovery.
Altogether 4,633 people had died of the disease, the commission said.
By Saturday, the mainland had reported a total of 1,683 imported cases. Of the cases, 1,568 had been discharged from hospitals after recovery, and 115 remained hospitalized with three in severe conditions. No deaths from the imported cases had been reported.
The commission said four people, all from overseas, were still suspected of being infected with the virus.
According to the commission, 5,840 close contacts were still under medical observation after 427 people were discharged from medical observation Saturday.
Also on Saturday, 20 new asymptomatic cases were reported on the mainland. One case was re-categorized as a confirmed case, and 61 asymptomatic cases, including 16 from overseas, were discharged from medical observation, according to the commission.
The commission said 794 asymptomatic cases, including 48 from overseas, were still under medical observation.
By Saturday, 1,044 confirmed cases including four deaths had been reported in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), 45 confirmed cases in the Macao SAR, and 440 in Taiwan including six deaths.
A total of 967 patients in Hong Kong, 40 in Macao, and 361 in Taiwan had been discharged from hospitals after recovery.
Nations may need help from China during virus outbreaks but remain wary of Beijing as adversary in disputed waters
Analysts say code of conduct negotiations are too sensitive and important for virtual meetings and may be delayed until coronavirus crisis is resolved
On April 18, the US Navy Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (front) and Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry transit the South China Sea. The presence of both Chinese and American navy ships in the area in recent weeks worries Southeast Asian nations. Photo: US Navy
Negotiations between China and its Southeast Asian neighbours for a South China Sea
code of conduct have been postponed as the nations involved put their efforts into containing the Covid-19 pandemic, creating uncertainty about whether the two sides can work together amid rising tensions in the contested territory.
Southeast Asian nations are increasingly caught in a dilemma whether to maintain relations with Beijing during the pandemic while also fearing that tensions over the disputed waters are spiralling out of control. Both Chinese and United States navies are sending vessels to the area more frequently.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi expressed concern over recent activities in the South China Sea, noting that they might potentially escalate tensions at a time when global collective effort to fight Covid-19 was essential.
Speaking on Wednesday, she called on all parties to respect international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
“While negotiation of the code of conduct is being postponed due to Covid-19, Indonesia calls on all relevant parties to exercise self-restraint and to refrain from undertaking action that may erode mutual trust and potentially escalate tension in the region,” she said.
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi. Photo: AP
Calls for a binding code of conduct surfaced in 1995 when China occupied Mischief Reef
, a maritime feature claimed by the Philippines. China did not agree to start talks until 1999, and subsequent negotiations led to a non-binding Declaration on Conduct in 2002.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and China agreed in 2018 on a draft code laying the foundations for conduct in the disputed waters. At that time, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said China hoped to complete the negotiation by the end of 2021, a move he said could show China and Asean could jointly maintain regional peace.
Named and claimed: is Beijing spoiling for a new fight in the South China Sea?
27 Apr 2020
But tensions over the South China Sea have not calmed and, in fact, have surged in recent months with both Beijing and Washington seen to be using the Covid-19 pandemic to create a stronger presence there.
This year, the US has conducted four freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and China has scrambled air and sea patrols to expel US vessels.
The confrontation between Beijing and Southeast Asian nations has also intensified. Last month, a Vietnamese fishing boat sank after a collision with a Chinese coastguard vessel near the Paracel Islands, known in China as the Xisha Islands, and in Vietnam as the Hoang Sa Islands.
On Saturday, the 35th escort fleet of the Chinese navy also conducted drills in the Spratly Islands chain – known as Nansha Islands in China – after completing an operation in the Gulf of Aden, off Somalia. Analysts said the drill aimed to boost far-sea training for combat ships and boost protection against piracy for Chinese merchant ships.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the code of conduct talks had been delayed because of the pandemic, but Beijing was consolidating its position in the South China Sea amid the outbreak.
“So it’s doing what it can now to consolidate and further enhance its position before talks restart, and by then these moves will raise Beijing’s leverage in the negotiations with its Asean counterparts,” he said.
“The current situation gives it a window of opportunity amid this interlude on the talks, to further advance its physical hold in the South China Sea, especially while Asean parties have their hands full on the pandemic”.
Asean nations have turned their attention to coping with coronavirus outbreaks in their own countries. On April 14, a live video conference for the special Asean Plus Three Summit on the coronavirus pandemic was held in Hanoi. Photo: AFP
Kang Lin, a researcher with Hainan University, said progress for the code of conduct would still go ahead, but it might be affected as face-to-face meetings between officials were disrupted.
“The negotiations involves multiple departments, such as diplomacy, maritime affairs, fisheries and even oil and gas-related departments,” he said, adding that those discussions might go online and might not be as effective.
“It is not easy to predict to what extent it will affect next year's goals. If the pandemic cannot be eliminated in the first half of next year, it may be longer than the three-year period we had previously scheduled,” he said.
Richard Heydarian, an academic and former Philippine government adviser, said video-conference meetings would be inadequate for negotiations about the future of the South China Sea.
“The problem with the negotiation of the code is that these are very sensitive, difficult negotiations. I don't think you can really do it just online, these are things that are done in the corridors of power,” he said. “It’s close to impossible to have that right now with the suspension of all international meetings in the Asean.”
Heydarian said Southeast Asian nations hoped to get help from China to contain the pandemic, but were showing unease about Beijing.
“I think there is a lot of resentment building against China,” he said. “There is also a lot of desperation to get assistance from China and, at the same time, complete helplessness with the fact that it is very hard to conduct any important extended international meeting on the level of Asean and beyond under current circumstances.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said on Thursday that China would push forward negotiations on the code of conduct, and hoped the code would be useful for peace and stability over the South China Sea.
Incident happened on Friday afternoon in waters close to Diaoyu Islands, which are controlled by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing
Japanese fishing boat had three crew members on board but no one was hurt, reports say
The Diaoyu Islands are the focus of a long-running territorial dispute between China and Japan. Photo: Kyodo
Japan said it deployed patrols and issued warnings to a group of Chinese coastguard vessels spotted pursuing a Japanese fishing boat in the hotly contested waters of the East China Sea on Friday.
The Japan Coast Guard said on Saturday that four Chinese coastguard vessels entered waters close to the Diaoyu Islands – a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Tokyo and known locally as known as Senkaku – at about 4pm.
The face-off took place about 50 minutes later, when two of the Chinese vessels began to chase a Japanese fishing boat in a stretch of water about 12km (7.5 miles) southwest of Uotsuri, one of the largest islands in the group, news agency Jiji Press cited the coastguard’s regional headquarters in Naha as saying.
After the maritime agency sent patrol ships to the scene and issued a warning over the radio, the Chinese ships left the area, the report said.
The fishing vessel had three crew members on board at the time of the pursuit but no one was hurt, it said.
An unnamed official from the Japanese coastguard was quoted as saying that “we don’t think that a dangerous event has happened”.
Earlier on Friday, China Coast Guard said on its official Weibo social media account that a fleet of its vessels had “patrolled the territorial waters around the Diaoyu Islands”.
The four Chinese vessels were in the region for about two hours, Japan’s Kyodo News reported.
China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The uninhabited but resource-rich islands and reefs of the East China Sea have been the setting for territorial disputes between China and Japan for decades, though relations between the two Asian giants have been steadily improving in recent years.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Beijing twice since 2018, while officials from the two sides are working to rearrange a state visit to Japan by Chinese President Xi Jinping that had been planned for last month but had to be postponed because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Japanese government bought the Diaoyu Islands from a private owner in 2012, but Beijing claims them. Patrols by Chinese coastguard vessels are common in the area, with the latest – excluding Friday – happening on April 17.
Beijing has also sought to assert its sovereignty in the region by imposing annual summer fishing bans in the East China Sea, including in the waters off the Diaoyu Islands. This year’s ban began on May 1 and runs until August 16.
In his “verbal message of thanks”, Mr Xi said he highly appreciated Mr Kim’s support during China’s outbreak and “showed his personal attention to the situation of the pandemic and people’s health” in North Korea, according to state media.
Mr Xi called for more efforts to strengthen co-operation in preventing the spread of the coronavirus, and said China was “willing to continue to provide assistance within its own capacity for [North Korea] in the fight against Covid-19”.
On Friday, North Korean state media reported that Mr Kim had sent a verbal message to the president that “congratulated him, highly appreciating that he is seizing a chance of victory in the war against the unprecedented epidemic”.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Kim Jong-un disappeared from public view for 20 days, before visiting a factory on 2 May
Mr Kim recently went 20 days without appearing in public, and missed the celebration of his grandfather’s birthday – one of the biggest events of the year.
Some media reports claimed he was “gravely ill”, or even dead.
But he then appeared at a fertiliser factory on 2 May – apparently in good health.
On Wednesday, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told a parliamentary committee that there had been no signs the health rumours were true.
“He was performing his duties normally when he was out of the public eye,” a member of the committee, Kim Byung-kee, told reporters afterwards.
The lawmaker said the North Korean leader’s absence could have been down to a Covid-19 outbreak that the authorities in Pyongyang had not reported.
Analysis
By Celia Hatton, Asia Pacific Editor, BBC World Service
For months, North Korea-watchers have questioned Pyongyang’s claims that it has managed to isolate itself from Covid-19.
Admittedly, North Korea was the first country to suspend travel in response to the virus. There are unconfirmed reports that North Korean guards have been ordered to shoot at those who try to cross the lengthy border the North shares with China. However, it will be difficult to completely seal that dividing line for long. North Korea’s underground economy relies on illicit trade with Chinese entrepreneurs.
Beijing has a few good reasons for wanting to help North Korea. On a practical level, China needs to suppress a possible Covid-19 outbreak there if it wants to keep its own population healthy. Beijing also worries about what might happen inside North Korea if the virus takes hold. The North’s decrepit health system would quickly be overwhelmed by an outbreak of Covid-19, and that could threaten the fragile Kim Jong-un regime. Beijing has been Pyongyang’s biggest aid donor for decades, and it will continue to do what it can to keep Mr Kim in power. The alternatives to Kim Jong-un are much riskier for China, which does not want change on its doorstep.
China’s global political interests are also at play. Diplomatically, Mr Xi’s public exchange with Kim Jong-un underlines the seemingly close ties between China and North Korea. Pyongyang has been slow to accept public offers of help from the United States, and peace talks with Washington have stalled. If North Korea appeared to accept Beijing’s help, China would reassert itself as North Korea’s “true” ally in a time of need.
South Korea itself reported 18 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 on Saturday.
Seventeen of them are linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five nightclubs and bars in Seoul’s Itaewon leisure district last weekend, the Yonhap news agency said.
Mayor Park Won-soon ordered nightclubs, bars and hostess venues across the capital to suspend business in response.
“Carelessness can lead to an explosion in infections – we clearly realised this through the group infections seen in the Itaewon club case,” Mr Park said.
Health officials have urged people who have visited the five venues in Itaewon to self-isolate and get tested to prevent additional transmissions. At least 1,500 people signed their entry logs, according to Yonhap.
The new infections brought the nationwide total to 10,840, while the death toll remained unchanged at 256.
As China prepares its 14th five-year plan, researchers at one state-affiliated think tank predicted a more hostile global situation
Beijing urged to strengthen home-grown innovation and use vast domestic market to power economy post-coronavirus
A think tank linked to China’s State Council has encouraged Beijing to focus on home-grown technology and its vast consumer market over the next five years. Photo: Xinhua
China’s will face an increasingly hostile world over the next five years, meaning its policy plan should be focused on its vast domestic market, home-grown technological innovation and improving its citizen’s welfare, according to recommendations in a new paper.
The report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a think tank affiliated with the State Council, foresees the next five years presenting “major changes unseen in a century” for China, as “the strategic game between superpowers has intensified, while international systems and orders are reshuffled”.
While the report does not mention the coronavirus specifically, its recommendations suggest that China should become more self-reliant in response to the pandemic. This view represents one side of a lively debate among policymakers and scholars in China, ahead of the next five-year plan, which will come into place next year.
Between 2021 and 2025, the globalised economy which helped China grow into an economic power will be radically different, the report said, meaning it must adapt if it is to continue to thrive.
“The disadvantages of economic globalisation have increasingly stood out. Populism has risen as the global economy weakens, while countries are divided as imbalances expand. The old multilateral [trading] system is under pressure,” read the paper, part of a wave of preliminary studies offering advice ahead of China’s 14th five-year plan, a blueprint for economic and social development.
China is the only major economy that publishes a five-year policy plan and has been doing so since 1953, in a tradition borrowed from the Soviet Union. China’s own plans are broad strategic guidelines, rather than Moscow’s previously detailed command economy production worksheets.
China is currently in the final year of its 13th five-year plan, the stage during which the Soviet Union collapsed. The 14th plan is expected to be published in early-2021, but brainstorming about challenges and policy options is well under way among academics and state planning officials.
That debate is expected to feature prominently in the coming meetings of the “Two Sessions,” the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress, which is due to meet in Beijing on May 21, and the National People’s Congress, which will begin to meet a day later.
A common point in the debate is that the lessons of the past few years have shown the need to be more self-reliant. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the US-China trade war and the growing superpower rivalry have made many think that Beijing can no longer rely on the goodwill of trading partners to continue the expansion it has enjoyed since the late-1970s.
Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades
In December 2017, US President Donald Trump declared China a “strategic competitor” in anticipation of the Chinese economy reaching two-thirds the size of America’s, which happened in 2018. Since then, the two have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff battle, while the coronavirus has served to sharpen tensions and fuel arguments for further decoupling.
“Uncertainties and instabilities are clearly increasing,” read the analysis published in the academic journal Economic Perspectives this week.
Without citing coronavirus directly, the CASS researchers suggested that China should “stick to its developmental direction and concentrate on doing its own things well”.
China now has a middle income group of between 500 and 700 million people and that alone can be a source empowering China’s economic growth for the next five years, the report said.
However, China must also attempt to smooth out a major weakness, namely unbalanced growth, including the yawning wealth gap between urban and rural groups.
In terms of innovation, the researchers led by Huang Qunhui said China should rely less on foreign technologies. “China’s innovation capacity is still lagging behind developed countries. Breakthroughs in core technologies are in urgent need,” read the report.
The Made in China 2025 plan, published in 2015, stated Beijing’s ambitions to dominate future technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence. However, after loud complaints from the US and European Union, China has been forced to play down such bold innovative goals.
US President Donald Trump has described the coronavirus pandemic as the “worst attack” ever on the United States, pointing the finger at China.
Mr Trump said the outbreak had hit the US harder than the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor in World War Two, or the 9/11 attacks two decades ago.
His administration is weighing punitive actions against China over its early handling of the global emergency.
Beijing says the US wants to distract from its own response to the pandemic.
Since emerging in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December, the coronavirus is confirmed to have infected 1.2 million Americans, killing more than 73,000.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday, Mr Trump said: “We went through the worst attack we’ve ever had on our country, this is worst attack we’ve ever had.
“This is worse than Pearl Harbor, this is worse than the World Trade Center. There’s never been an attack like this.
“And it should have never happened. Could’ve been stopped at the source. Could’ve been stopped in China. It should’ve been stopped right at the source. And it wasn’t.”
Media caption Life for asylum seekers in lockdown on the US-Mexico border
Asked later by a reporter if he saw the pandemic as an actual act of war, Mr Trump indicated the outbreak was America’s foe, rather than China.
“I view the invisible enemy [coronavirus] as a war,” he said. “I don’t like how it got here, because it could have been stopped, but no, I view the invisible enemy like a war.”
Media caption US shopping centres re-open: ‘This is the best day ever’
Who else in Trump’s team is criticising China?
The deepening rift between Washington and Beijing was further underscored on Wednesday as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo renewed his rhetoric against China, accusing it of covering up the outbreak.
He stuck by his so far unsubstantiated charge that there is “enormous evidence” the coronavirus hatched in a Chinese laboratory, even while acknowledging there is still uncertainty about its origins.
“Those statements are both true,” America’s top diplomat told the BBC. “We don’t have certainty and there is significant evidence that it came from a lab.”
One of the most trusted US public health experts has said the best evidence indicates the virus was not made in a lab.
Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of Mr Trump’s coronavirus task force, said on Monday the illness appeared to have “evolved in nature and then jumped species”.
Why is the US blaming China?
President Trump faces a tough re-election campaign in November, but the once humming US economy – which had been his main selling point – is currently in a coronavirus-induced coma.
As Mr Trump found his management of the crisis under scrutiny, he began labelling the outbreak “the China virus”, but dropped that term last month days before speaking by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Both Mr Trump and his likely Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, appear to be fastening on to China’s unpopularity as an election issue, with each accusing the other of being a patsy for America’s primary economic competitor.
As the coronavirus began spreading in the US back in January, Mr Trump signed phase one of a trade deal with China that called a truce in their tariff war. The US president’s hopes of sealing a more comprehensive phase two deal are now in limbo because of the pandemic.
Modified version of country’s most powerful rocket carries next-generation capsule designed to take astronauts to its planned space station
It will be able to launch and land with three crew members and up to 500kg of cargo, according to state media
China launched a new version of its heavy-lift Long March 5 rocket on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters
China successfully launched a prototype of its next-generation manned spacecraft – without astronauts – along with a new version of its heavy-lift Long March 5 rocket on Tuesday, its space agency said.
The Long March 5B rocket was launched into low-Earth orbit from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Centre on Hainan Island in the country’s south.
The launch marks a significant step forward for China’s two big space exploration ambitions – building a space station and a mission to Mars.
A modified version of China’s most powerful rocket, the Long March 5B is 53.7 metres (176 feet) tall. It will carry the next-generation crew capsule prototype designed to replace the Shenzhou spacecraft, to transport astronauts to its planned space station in low-Earth orbit.
China aims to launch the core module of that space station designed for three crew members, the Tianhe, in 2021. Beijing has been planning to build its own space station for decades as an alternative to the International Space Station, from which China has been excluded by the United States over security concerns.
China’s space station project has been delayed by problems with its heavy-lift rockets. Photo: Xinhua
The prototype capsule has a different configuration to Shenzhou’s and it will be able to launch and land with three astronauts on board as well as up to 500kg of cargo, according to state news agency Xinhua. That will mean it can be used to transport research specimens and hardware from the space station back to Earth.
While the Shenzhou can ferry three astronauts, the new capsule design will be able to accommodate up to six crew members and, unlike the Shenzhou, it will be capable of carrying them to the moon, according to Chinese media reports.
Its systems, performance in orbit and parachute deployment are among the areas that will be put to the test during the launch.
Why China’s next Long March 5 rocket mission will be about restoring national pride
14 Dec 2019
The long-anticipated space station project has been delayed by problems in the development of heavy-lift rockets to carry the modules. In 2017, an oxygen supply problem caused the failure of the second Long March 5 launch, and it plunged into the Pacific Ocean shortly after take-off. But in December it successfully carried a Shijian-20 satellite into orbit, while the liquid oxygen-liquid hydrogen engines used in both the Long March 5 and 5B rockets passed testing in January.
China’s other space ambitions include a Mars probe, and landing astronauts on the moon within the next decade. For the Mars mission, the unmanned orbiter and rover Tianwen-1 will be launched by the Long March 5 and it is expected to take up to seven months for the probe to reach the red planet. China would be the third country to do so – after the United States and the Soviet Union.
Zhang Kejian, head of the China National Space Administration, said China was on track to launch the mission this year, with July the likely launch date.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Only Taiwan’s democratically-elected government can represent its people on the world stage, not China, its foreign ministry said on Tuesday, calling on the World Health Organization (WHO) to “cast off” China’s control during the coronavirus pandemic.
Taiwan’s exclusion from WHO, due to China’s objections which considers the island one of its provinces, has infuriated Taipei, which says this has created a dangerous gap in the global fight against the coronavirus.
Taiwan has been lobbying to attend, as an observer, this month’s meeting of the WHO’s decision-making body, the World Health Assembly (WHA), although government and diplomatic sources say China will block the move.
Steven Solomon, the WHO’s principal legal officer, said on Monday that the WHO recognised the People’s Republic of China as the “one legitimate representative of China”, in keeping with U.N. policy since 1971, and that the question of Taiwan’s attendance was one for the WHO’s 194 member states.
Speaking in Taipei, Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou said the 1971 decision, under which Beijing assumed the U.N. China seat from Taipei, only resolved the issue of who represented China, not the issue of Taiwan, and did not grant China the power to represent Taiwan internationally.
“Only the democratically-elected Taiwanese government can represent Taiwan’s 23 million people in the international community,” she told reporters.
The WHO should “cast off the Chinese government’s control”, and let Taiwan fully participate in fighting the virus, Ou said.
“Do not let China’s improper political interference become an obstacle to impeding the world’s united fight against the virus.”
Taiwan attended the World Health Assembly as an observer from 2009-2016 when Taipei-Beijing relations warmed.
But China blocked further participation after the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who China views as a separatist, charges she rejects.
The United States has strongly supported Taiwan’s participation at the WHA as an observer, another fault line in Washington-Beijing ties that have been already overshadowed by the Trump administration’s criticism of how China and the WHO have handled the outbreak.
China says Taiwan is adequately represented by Beijing and that Taiwan can only take part in the WHO under Beijing’s “one China” policy, in which Taiwan would have to accept that it is part of China, something Tsai’s government will not do.
Taiwan has reported far fewer cases of the new coronavirus than many of its neighbours, due to early and effective detection and prevention work.
Beijing ‘carefully considering’ unveiling the plane at the Zhuhai Airshow in November at a time of heightened regional tension
H-20 will give China the nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers
An artist’s impression of what the H-20 may look like. Photo: Weibo
China’s new generation strategic bomber is likely to be ready for delivery this year, but Beijing is said to be weighing the impact of its unveiling at a complex time in regional relations due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Military sources said the Xian H-20 supersonic stealth bomber – expected to double the country’s strike range – could make its first public appearance at this year’s Zhuhai Airshow in November, if the pandemic was sufficiently under control.
“The Zhuhai Airshow is expected to become a platform to promote China’s image and its success in pandemic control – telling the outside world that the contagion did not have any big impacts on Chinese defence industry enterprises,” a source said.
But the appearance of the bomber at this year’s air show could heighten tensions by directly threatening countries within its strike range, especially Australia, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
Thrilling aerobatics fill the skies to open air show in central China
“The Beijing leadership is still carefully considering whether its commission will affect regional balance, especially as regional tensions have been escalating over the Covid-19 pandemic,” another source said.
“Like intercontinental ballistic missiles, all strategic bombers can be used for delivering nuclear weapons … if China claimed it had pursued a national defence policy which is purely defensive in nature, why would it need such an offensive weapon?”
Tensions in the region have worsened in the past month with a war of words between Beijing and Washington over the pandemic, and both sides increasing naval patrols.
The US defence department has estimated a cruising distance of more than 8,500km (5,300 miles) for the H-20, the last in China’s 20 series of new generation warplanes, which includes the J-20 stealth fighter jet, the Y-20 giant transporter and the Z-20 medium-lift utility helicopter.
The arrival of the H-20 would mark the completion of China’s “nuclear triad” of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and air-launched weapons.
An H-6K bomber, or China’s B-52, flies over the South China Sea. Photo: AP
Chinese state television has said the H-20 could alter the strategic calculus between the US and China by doubling the strike range of its current H-6K, dubbed the country’s B-52.
The H-20 has reportedly been designed to strike targets beyond the second island ring – which includes US bases in Japan, Guam, the Philippines and other countries – from bases in mainland China. The third island chain extends to Hawaii and coastal Australia.
It will be equipped with nuclear and conventional missiles with a maximum take-off weight of at least 200 tonnes and a payload of up to 45 tonnes. The bomber is expected to fly at subsonic speeds and could potentially unleash four powerful hypersonic stealth cruise missiles.
However, like China’s first active stealth fighter jet, the J-20, engine development of the H-20 bomber has fallen behind schedule, according to sources.
For the J-20, engineers were developing high-thrust turbofan WS-15 engines, but the jet is understood to be using either Chinese WS-10B or Russian-built AL-31FM2/3 engines, which compromise its manoeuvrability and stealth capabilities at subsonic speeds.
Military enthusiasts have speculated the H-20 might use the NK-321 Russian engine but two independent military sources said it would be equipped with an upgraded WS-10 engine.
“The WS-10 is still a transitional engine for the H-20 because it is not powerful enough. The eligible replacement may take two to three years for development,” one of the sources said.
China must meet air force demand for J-20 stealth jets, say analysts
17 Feb 2020
The second said the speed of the H-20 would be slower than its original design, with some of its original combat capability being reduced.
“That’s why the American air force doesn’t care about the H-20, because it is not strong and powerful enough to cause any challenge to their B-2 and B-21 bombers.”
If the US decided to deploy more F-35 supersonic fighter jets – it has already sold about 200 to Japan and South Korea – it could push China to bring forward the unveiling of the new bomber, the second source said.
“For example, if some US decision makers decided to deploy up to 500 F-35s to Japan, South Korea, and even Singapore, India and Taiwan – making almost all of China’s neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region use F-35s to contain China – that would pushBeijing to launch the H-20 as soon as possible.”
The H-20 is believed to have been in development since the early 2000s. The project to develop a strategic bomber was first announced by the People’s Liberation Army in 2016.
BEIJING (Reuters) – Tang Yue, a 27-year-old teacher from the city of Guilin in southwest China, steam-presses a blue dress and takes dozens of photographs before picking one to clinch her 200th online sale.
For a growing number of Chinese like Tang, hit by job losses, furloughs and salary cuts, the consumer economy has begun to spin in reverse. They are no longer buying – they are selling.
Instead of emerging from the coronavirus epidemic and returning to the shopping habits that helped drive the world’s second-largest economy, many young people are offloading possessions and embracing a new-found ethic for hard times: less is more.
With Tang’s monthly salary of about 7,000 yuan ($988), the self-described shopaholic said she has bought everything from Chanel lipsticks to Apple’s (AAPL.O) latest iPad in the past three years.
But the adrenaline rush that comes with binge-shopping is gone, said Tang, whose wages have been slashed with the suspension of all the classes on tourism management she usually teaches.
“The coronavirus outbreak was a wake-up call,” she said. “When I saw the collapse of so many industries, I realised I had no financial buffer should something unfortunate happen to me.”
There is no guarantee that the nascent minimalist trend will continue once the coronavirus crisis is fully over, but if it does, it could seriously damage China’s consumer sector and hurt thousands of businesses from big retailers to street-corner restaurants, gyms and beauty salons.
To be sure, there are signs that pent-up demand will drive a rush of spending as authorities reopen malls, leisure venues and tourist spots. In South Korea, the first major economy outside of China to be hit by the virus, people thronged malls this weekend to go “revenge shopping” to make up for time lost in lockdown.,
There are some signs that a similar trend will take hold in China, where some upscale malls are starting to get busy, although luxury firm Kering SA (PRTP.PA) – which owns Gucci, Balenciaga and other fashion brands – has said it is hard to predict how or when sales in China might come back.
A recent McKinsey & Co survey showed that between 20% and 30% of respondents in China said they would continue to be cautious, either consuming slightly less or, in a few cases, a lot less.
“The lockdown provided consumers with a lot of time and reasons to reflect and consider what is important to them,” said Mark Tanner, managing director at Shanghai-based research and marketing consultancy China Skinny.
“With much more of their days spent in their homes, consumers also have more time and reasons to sort through things they don’t feel they need – so they’re not living around clutter that is common in many apartments.”
#DITCHYOURSTUFF
Tang made a spreadsheet to keep track of her nearly 200 cosmetic products and hundreds of pieces of clothing. She then marked a few essentials in red that she wanted to keep. In the past two months, she has sold items worth nearly 5,000 yuan on second-hand marketplaces online.
Bargain-hunting online has become a new habit for some Chinese as the stigma that once hung over second-hand goods has begun to fade.
Idle Fish, China’s biggest online site for used goods, hit a record daily transaction volume in March, its parent company Alibaba (BABA.N) told Reuters.
Government researchers predict that transactions for used goods in China may top 1 trillion yuan ($141 billion) this year.
Posts with the hashtag #ditchyourstuff have trended on Chinese social media in recent weeks, garnering more than 140 million views.
Jiang Zhuoyue, 31, who works as an accountant at a traditional Chinese medicine company in Beijing – one of the few industries that may benefit from the health crisis – has also decided to turn to a simpler life.
“I used to shop too much and could be easily lured by discounts,” said Jiang. “One time Sephora offered 20% off for all goods, I then bought a lot of cosmetics because I feel I’m losing money if I don’t.”
Jiang, the mother of a 9-month-old baby, said she recently sold nearly 50 pieces of used clothing as the lockdown gave her the opportunity to clear things out. “It also offered me a chance to rethink what’s essential to me, and the importance of doing financial planning,” she said.
Eleven Li, a 23-year-old flight attendant, said she used to spend her money on all manner of celebrity-endorsed facial masks, snacks, concert tickets and social media activity, but now has no way to fund her spending.
“I just found a new job late last year, then COVID-19 came along, and I haven’t been able to fly once since I joined, and I’ve gotten no salary at all,” said Li, who said she was trying to sell her Kindle.
Some are even selling their pets, as they consider leaving big cities like Beijing and Shanghai where the high cost of living is finally catching up with them.
NO RETURN TO OLD WAYS?
As the coronavirus comes under control in China, the government is gradually releasing cities from lockdown, easing transport restrictions and encouraging consumers to venture back into malls and restaurants by giving out billions-worth of cash vouchers, worth between 10 yuan and 100 yuan.
But many people say they are still worried about job security and potential wage cuts because of the struggling economy. Nationwide retail sales have plunged every month so far this year.
Xu Chi, a Shanghai-based senior strategic analyst with Zhongtai Securities, said some Chinese consumers may prove the ‘21 Day Habit Theory,’ a popular scientific proposition that it only takes that long to establish new habits.
“We believe people’s spending patterns follow the well-known theory, which means most people in China, having been cooped-up at home for more than a month and not having binge-shopped, may break the habit and not return to their old ways,” Xu said.
Jiang said she was determined not to return to her free-spending ways and planned to cook more at home.
“I’ll turn to cheaper goods for some luxury brands,” she said. “I’ll choose Huawei’s smartphone, because (Apple’s) iPhone has too much brand premium.”
Tang, who has recently used 100 yuan of shopping coupons to stock up on food, is going to hold the purse strings even tighter.
“I’ve set my monthly budget at 1,000 yuan,” she said. “Including one – and just one – bottle of bubble tea.”
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