Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan cannot accept becoming part of China under its “one country, two systems” offer of autonomy , President Tsai Ing-wen said on Wednesday, strongly rejecting China’s sovereignty claims and likely setting the stage for an ever worsening of ties.
China responded that “reunification” was inevitable and that it would never tolerate Taiwan’s independence.
In a speech after being sworn in for her second and final term in office, Tsai said relations between Taiwan and China had reached an historical turning point.
“Both sides have a duty to find a way to coexist over the long term and prevent the intensification of antagonism and differences,” she said.
Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party won January’s presidential and parliamentary elections by a landslide, vowing to stand up to China, which claims Taiwan as its own and says it would be brought under Beijing’s control by force if needed.
“Here, I want to reiterate the words ‘peace, parity, democracy, and dialogue’. We will not accept the Beijing authorities’ use of ‘one country, two systems’ to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo. We stand fast by this principle,” Tsai said.
China uses the “one country, two systems” policy, which is supposed to guarantee a high degree of autonomy, to run the former British colony of Hong Kong, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997. It has offered it to Taiwan, though all major Taiwanese parties have rejected it.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, responding to Tsai, said Beijing would stick to “one country, two systems” – a central tenet of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy – and “not leave any space for Taiwan independence separatist activities”.
“Reunification is a historical inevitability of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” it said. “We have the firm will, full confidence, and sufficient ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
China views Tsai as a separatist bent on formal independence for Taiwan. Tsai says Taiwan is an independent state called the Republic of China, its official name, and does not want to be part of the People’s Republic of China governed by Beijing.
TAIWAN OPEN TO DIALOGUE
China has stepped up its military drills near Taiwan since Tsai’s re-election, flying fighter jets into the island’s air space and sailing warships around Taiwan.
Tsai said Taiwan has made the greatest effort to maintain peace and stability in the narrow Taiwan Strait that separates the democratic island from its autocratic neighbour China.
“We will continue these efforts, and we are willing to engage in dialogue with China and make more concrete contributions to regional security,” she added, speaking in the garden of the old Japanese governor’s house in Taipei, in front of a socially-distanced audience of officials and diplomats.
Taiwan has become a rising source of friction between China and the United States, with the Trump administration strongly backing Taiwan even in the absence of formal diplomatic ties.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent his congratulations to Tsai on Tuesday, praising her “courage and vision in leading Taiwan’s vibrant democracy”, in a rare high-level message from Washington direct to Taiwan’s government.
China’s Foreign Ministry condemned Pompeo’s remarks, and said the government would take “necessary countermeasures”, though did not elaborate.
China cut off a formal talks mechanism with Taiwan in 2016 after Tsai first won election.
Yao Chia-wen, a senior adviser to Tsai, told Reuters the chance of talks with China were small given ongoing tensions.
“We are ready to engage with them any time, but China is unlikely to make concessions to Taiwan,” he said. “In the next four years there’s little chance for the cross-strait relationship to improve.”
American destroyer’s mission comes a week before Taiwanese president officially starts second term in office
Increased military activity in the region could have unintended consequences but unlikely to lead to direct conflict, observer says
The guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell made a transit through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday. Photo: US Navy
The United States sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday as the Chinese military embarked on more than two months of live-fire naval drills off the mainland’s northern coast.
According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer transited the narrow body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China from north to south “in a routine mission”.
“It is continuing its southward voyage and the military is monitoring its movement through the intelligence it has gathered,” the ministry said.
In a statement on its Facebook page, the US Pacific Fleet said the McCampbell transited the Taiwan Strait as part of ongoing operations in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysts said the passage was a response to the People’s Liberation Army’s increasing military activity near Taiwan and in the wider region.
“This will become a new routine as a kind of US security commitment to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Soong Hseik-wen, professor of strategic studies and international relations at National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan.
Beijing urges France to cancel contract to sell arms to Taiwan
13 May 2020
The PLA has staged a series of war games, including fly-bys and warship transits through the strait, in recent months in response to what Beijing sees as growing pro-independence moves by the Tsai government and her party. China has also warned the US against supplying weapons to the island, which Beijing considers to be a wayward province that must return to the mainland fold, by force if necessary.
Mainland China has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai was first elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China policy, which Beijing says must be the foundation for any talks.
The PLA has embarked on 11 weeks of naval exercises off the coast of Tangshan in northern China, barring all other vessels from a 25km (15 mile) radius of the drill area, according to the China Maritime Safety Administration.
Taiwanese support closer ties with US over China, few identify as solely Chinese, Pew Research survey finds
13 May 2020
Both Beijing and Washington have ramped up military activities near Taiwan in recent months during the coronavirus pandemic, moves that some observers say run the risk of miscommunication.
Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, professor of strategic studies and international relations at Tamkang University in Taipei, said no one could exclude the possibility of unintended incidents when both the US and the mainland were stepping up their presence in the region.
“Rational analysts would however argue that the two nuclear powers are not likely to engage in or escalate to direct military conflict,” he said.
Huang said he believed cross-strait relations would worsen during Tsai’s second term in office, which begins on May 20.
“The already damaged relationship between Taiwan and mainland China has worsened since the pandemic mainly due to travel bans and Taiwan’s increased international visibility,” he said.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Kyodo News reported that the PLA was planning a large-scale beach landing exercise near Hainan province in August, simulating a takeover of the Pratas Islands, which are controlled by Taiwan and also known as the Dongsha Islands.
In Taipei, Major General Lin Wen-huang said Taiwan was monitoring the PLA movements and “has contingency plans in place for the South China Sea to strengthen combat readiness and defence preparedness on both the Spratly and Pratas islands”.
Taiwan’s coastguard also announced on Wednesday that its Pratas Islands Garrison was scheduled to conduct an annual live-fire exercise in June to ensure the “effectiveness of various mortar and machine-gun positions”.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Shanghai-based military commentator Ni Lexiong said that both the US Navy and PLA were increasing activities during the pandemic because neither side could afford to show weaknesses that the other might take advantage of.
The destroyer’s passage and the PLA’s drills were all part of such efforts, Li said.
But he agreed that both countries were unwilling, unable, and unlikely to have a real conflict.
“They are both bluffing. It’s a fake crisis,” he said. “A pandemic always ends or prevents a war if you look at history.
“I also don’t believe the PLA would want to take over the Dongsha or Taiping islands [in the South China Sea], because these islets alone are not worth a military campaign and all the consequences of that. The only target valuable enough for the PLA is Taiwan.”
Defence spending could show the effect of economic headwinds but is still expected to increase
PLA’s modernisation and strategic priorities demand spending is maintained even after GDP’s first contraction since records began, observers say
China has made modernising its military and expanding its weaponry a priority. Photo: Xinhua
China’s upcoming defence budget will be only slightly hit by the economic downturn that followed the coronavirus outbreak, and a modest increase is still expected as it continues to develop its military capability, analysts said.
The government’s military budget is expected to be revealed, as is the norm, at this year’s session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislative body. Delayed by over two months because of the pandemic, it will finally be convened on May 22.
Last year the defence expenditure announced at the NPC session was
China has said its military expenditure has always been kept below 2 per cent of its GDP over the past 30 years, although its official figures have long been described by Western observers as opaque, with significant omissions of important items.
The South China Sea dispute explained
In a report earlier this week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China’s actual military spending in 2019 was US$261 billion, the world’s second highest, after the United States’ US$732 billion.
John Lee, adjunct professor at the University of Sydney and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, estimated that this year the Chinese defence budget would remain roughly the same or increase modestly, in line with growth levels of recent years.
“In the current environment, Beijing is keen to emphasise that China has recovered substantially from Covid-19 and that its power trajectory is unaffected by recent events,” Lee said. “At the same time, it would be aware of the anger towards the Communist Party for allowing the virus to become a pandemic.
“Regardless of what the reality might be, I would be surprised if there were a dramatic increase or a significant cut.”
First made-in-China aircraft carrier, the Shandong, enters service
China’s GDP suffered a 6.8 per cent decline in the first quarter, the first contraction since quarterly records began in 1992, after an extensive shutdown while it contained its coronavirus outbreak. However, the official increases in the military budget have since 2011 always exceeded overall GDP growth.
The Chinese government may focus more on job creation, social welfare and poverty alleviation, but not at the expense of military investment, according to Collin Koh, research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“I tend to think it will be more or less the same,” Koh said. “To reduce [the budget] may send the wrong signal to would-be adversaries, both domestic and external: that Beijing has lost the will to keep up its military modernisation to assert core national interests.”
PLA flexes military muscle near Taiwan ‘in show of Covid-19 control’
15 Apr 2020
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began a massive – and costly – reform in 2015, with a personnel reshuffle, change in structure, upgraded equipment and enhanced training to better resemble battle scenarios. That was supposed to be complete this year.
Given the deteriorating relationship with the United States and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, the PLA faces challenges requiring a steady increase in investment, according to Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong predicted there would still be about 6-7 per cent growth in the budget “no matter what”.
“The PLA played an important role in the fight against the contagion, so a decrease in spending would not be accepted,” Wong said.
That role included the deployment of more than 4,000 military medics to help treat Covid-19 patients, and helping to transport medical supplies.
Wong said it would be a crucial year for the PLA in completing its preparation for potential military action against Taiwan, which would be so strategically important that “[President] Xi Jinping himself would never allow it to be affected by a shortage of funding”.
China’s military draws on 6G dream to modernise its fighting forces
18 Apr 2020
But a slight increase in budget would be sufficient to meet defence needs and maintain a deterrence against potential threats, including preventing self-ruled Taiwan taking the opportunity to declare independence, naval expert Li Jie said.
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Its relationship with Taipei has been strained, and dialogue halted, since Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected the island’s president in 2016. Tsai was re-elected for a second term in January.
Li estimated that the budget would probably be kept at the same level or show a “slight” increase from last year.
“It would feed the ‘China threat’ theory and raise international concerns if the Chinese government expands military spending too much,” he said.
Warship joined by at least five escort vessels and analysts say the drills were ‘very significant’ to show the strike group wasn’t hit by coronavirus
Latest exercises also seen as putting pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces, with strike group sailing through the strait
The Liaoning is seen as having a big role in the Chinese military’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Photo: AFP
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its home port of Qingdao on Thursday after nearly a month of training on the high seas, the People’s Liberation Army said.
According to military analysts, the warship was joined by at least five escort vessels, and the drills showed its crew had not been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and that it remained combat-ready.
The annual cross-region drills included intensive and complicated air and sea operations, the official PLA Daily said in a post on social media on Friday.
“The drills have further improved the real combat training level of the Liaoning carrier strike group, putting its systematic combat capability to the test,” the statement on WeChat said, without giving other details.
It was the longest training session by China’s navy since the PLA resumed all large-scale drills in March, after they were suspended because of disruptions to transport and military resources across the country as the deadly new virus rapidly spread.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said it was important for the carrier to get back to training activities.
“The recent training by the Liaoning carrier strike group is very significant because it’s evidence that none of the 2,000 sailors and commanders on the ship have been hit by Covid-19, and neither have any of the other soldiers and personnel on the other warships and support units,” Li said.
The coronavirus situation has eased in China, where the first cases were reported late last year, but it continues to spread across the globe and has infected more than 3.2 million people worldwide and killed over 233,000.
Sailors on warships like USS Theodore Roosevelt vulnerable as coronavirus spreads
29 Mar 2020
The virus has also hit crew members on at least 40 US Navy warships, and Li said that left China with the only operational aircraft carrier in the region.
“Since the four American aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific region have all been struck by the pandemic, China is the only country that can operate an aircraft carrier in the area,” he said.
US warship captain seeks to isolate crew members as coronavirus spreads
Taiwan’s defence ministry reported earlier that the Liaoning flotilla had sailed through the Taiwan Strait twice last month as it headed towards the western Pacific, prompting the self-ruled island to scramble aircraft and send warships to monitor its movements.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said the Liaoning was escorted by two destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship, and they had passed through the Bashi Channel, a waterway to the south of Taiwan, and headed towards waters east of Taiwan.
As tensions continue to simmer between Taipei and Beijing, the PLA has stepped up activities around the island, which the mainland sees as part of its territory awaiting reunification.
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the latest naval drills were also aimed at heaping more pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces as well as foreign countries seeking to intervene in cross-strait issues.
Coronavirus: US ‘supports Taiwan joining WHO events’ in ministerial phone call
28 Apr 2020
“Taiwan’s pro-independence forces have become more active and are attempting to take advantage amid the pandemic,” said Song, a military commentator with Phoenix Television.
“The Liaoning would play a major role in the PLA’s plan to unify Taiwan by force, so it’s necessary for the aircraft carrier strike group to get back to operations, step up training and send a warning to Taipei,” he added.
Lu Li-Shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, noted that the PLA Navy had regularly held drills in the waters east of Taiwan in recent years to avoid surveillance by US satellites.
Hardline politicians want president to fulfil promise to overhaul constitution to reflect the self-ruled island’s political reality
A petition calls for two referendums on the issue – proposing it either be replaced with a new one or revised
The push for constitutional change could lead to a cross-strait conflict. Photo: Handout
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is under growing pressure from the hardline camp to push for constitutional change to reflect the self-ruled island’s independent status – something observers say could provoke a cross-strait conflict.
With Tsai due to be sworn in for a second four-year term next month after a landslide victory in January’s election, hardline pro-independence politicians want her to fulfil a 2015 campaign promise: to overhaul the constitution so that it reflects Taiwan’s political reality. The process has been stalled since Tsai’s first term, which began in 2016.
Leading the charge is the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, a group formed last year by a Tsai adviser and long-time independence advocate Koo Kwang-ming.
The foundation launched a petition at the end of March calling for two referendums on the constitution – proposing that it either be replaced with a new one or revised.
The existing constitution was adopted when Kuomintang leader Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT fled to Taiwan and set up an interim government in 1949 following their defeat by Mao Zedong’s communists in mainland China.
Drawn up in 1947, the constitution still puts the mainland and Mongolia under the Republic of China jurisdiction – Taiwan’s official name for itself. In reality, its jurisdiction extends only to Taiwan and its outlying islands of Penghu, Matsu and Quemoy, which is also known as Kinmen.
Taiwan’s constitution was adopted when KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island in 1949. Photo: Handout
“We have garnered more than 3,000 signatures from the public for the first phase of initiating the proposals to hold two referendums asking the president to push for constitutional change,” Lin Yi-cheng, executive director of the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, said on Wednesday.
He said they would propose that voters be asked two questions in the referendums: “Do you support the president in initiating a constitutional reform process for the country?”
And: “Do you support the president in pushing for the establishment of a new constitution reflecting the reality of Taiwan?”
“We’re ready to send the two referendum proposals to the Central Election Commission on Thursday,” he said.
Confusion prompts call for China Airlines name change in Taiwan, but at what cost?
14 Apr 2020
Under Taiwan’s Referendum Act, the process for holding a referendum involves three stages: a proposal, endorsement and voting.
Lin said there should be no problem for the commission to approve the proposal stage since they had gathered far more than the minimum 1,931 signatures needed under the act.
The endorsement stage requires a minimum of 290,000 signatures, and if the referendum is held, they will need at least 5 million votes.
Lin said if the process went smoothly, he expected a referendum could be held in August next year, allowing time for review and making the necessary arrangements.
He said if the referendum questions got enough public support, Tsai would need to deal with the issue.
Tsai Ing-wen visits a military base in Tainan earlier this month. The pressure for constitutional change creates a dilemma for the president. Photo: AFP
Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party government has been tight-lipped over the constitutional change issue, which Beijing sees as a move for the island to declare formal independence from the mainland.
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary, and it has warned Tsai against declaring formal independence.
A DPP official said the foundation’s push would put Tsai in a difficult position.
“If she ignores the referendums, she will come under constant pressure from the hardline camp, and if she seriously considers taking action and instituting a new Taiwan constitution, she will risk a confrontation with Beijing, the consequence of which could be a cross-strait conflict,” said the official, who requested anonymity.
On Tuesday, Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned the island against holding any referendum on constitutional revision, saying it would be doomed to end in an impasse and would ultimately fail.
“It will only push Taiwan towards an extremely dangerous abyss and bring disasters to Taiwanese compatriots,” she said.
Chinese air force’s drill ‘aimed at signalling deterrent around Taiwan’
2 Apr 2020
But according to Wang Kung-yi, a political science professor at Chinese Culture University in Taipei, Tsai should not be too worried about the hardline camp move.
“The hardline camp has been marginalised greatly in the past several years as reflected by the poor showing in the legislative elections in January,” Wang said, adding that he expected Tsai to continue her relatively moderate cross-strait policy of not sharply provoking the mainland.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier returns home from a month of training
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its home port of Qingdao on Thursday after nearly a month of training on the high seas, the People’s Liberation Army said.
According to military analysts, the warship was joined by at least five escort vessels, and the drills showed its crew had not been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and that it remained combat-ready.
The annual cross-region drills included intensive and complicated air and sea operations, the official PLA Daily said in a post on social media on Friday.
“The drills have further improved the real combat training level of the Liaoning carrier strike group, putting its systematic combat capability to the test,” the statement on WeChat said, without giving other details.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said it was important for the carrier to get back to training activities.
“The recent training by the Liaoning carrier strike group is very significant because it’s evidence that none of the 2,000 sailors and commanders on the ship have been hit by Covid-19, and neither have any of the other soldiers and personnel on the other warships and support units,” Li said.
The coronavirus situation has eased in China, where the first cases were reported late last year, but it continues to spread across the globe and has infected more than 3.2 million people worldwide and killed over 233,000.
Sailors on warships like USS Theodore Roosevelt vulnerable as coronavirus spreads
The virus has also hit crew members on at least 40 US Navy warships, and Li said that left China with the only operational aircraft carrier in the region.
“Since the four American aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific region have all been struck by the pandemic, China is the only country that can operate an aircraft carrier in the area,” he said.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said the Liaoning was escorted by two destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship, and they had passed through the Bashi Channel, a waterway to the south of Taiwan, and headed towards waters east of Taiwan.
As tensions continue to simmer between Taipei and Beijing, the PLA has stepped up activities around the island, which the mainland sees as part of its territory awaiting reunification.
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the latest naval drills were also aimed at heaping more pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces as well as foreign countries seeking to intervene in cross-strait issues.
Coronavirus: US ‘supports Taiwan joining WHO events’ in ministerial phone call
“Taiwan’s pro-independence forces have become more active and are attempting to take advantage amid the pandemic,” said Song, a military commentator with Phoenix Television.
“The Liaoning would play a major role in the PLA’s plan to unify Taiwan by force, so it’s necessary for the aircraft carrier strike group to get back to operations, step up training and send a warning to Taipei,” he added.
Lu Li-Shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, noted that the PLA Navy had regularly held drills in the waters east of Taiwan in recent years to avoid surveillance by US satellites.
Source: SCMP
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