Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
BEIJING, Feb. 12 (Xinhua) — The number of daily new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection fell from a peak of 3,887 on Feb. 4 to 2,015 on Tuesday, with a decrease of 48.2 percent, according to the National Health Commission (NHC).
Noting that the epidemic situation remains grave at the moment, NHC spokesperson Mi Feng identified some positive changes in the statistics as a result of a series of effective measures.
For example, the number of newly reported suspected cases dropped by 37.3 percent from 5,328 on Feb. 5 to Tuesday’s 3,342.
He also highlighted the rapid increase in the number of people cured and discharged from hospitals, bringing the recovery rate to 10.6 percent by Tuesday from the lowest level of 1.3 percent on Jan. 27.
The overall confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland reached 44,653 by the end of Tuesday, and 16,067 people remain suspected of being infected with the virus.
A total of 4,740 people had been discharged from hospitals after recovery.
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China reported on Wednesday its smallest number of coronavirus cases since January, lending weight to a prediction by its top medical adviser for the outbreak to end by April, but a global infectious diseases expert warned of the spread elsewhere.
Financial markets took heart from the outlook of the Chinese official, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who said on Tuesday the number of new cases was falling in some provinces, and forecast the epidemic would peak this month, even as the death toll in China rose to more than 1,100 people.
World stocks, which had seen rounds of sell-offs over the virus, surged to record highs on hopes of a peak in cases. The Dow industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs, and Asian shares nudged higher on Wednesday.
But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the epidemic poses a global threat akin to terrorism and one expert coordinating its response said while the outbreak may be peaking at its epicentre in China, it was likely to spread elsewhere in the world, where it had just begun.
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“It has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak,” the official, Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore.
“In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.”
Singapore has reported 47 cases and worry about the spread is growing. Its biggest bank, DBS (DBSM.SI), evacuated 300 staff from its head office on Wednesday after a confirmed coronavirus case in the building.
Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories around the world, but only two people have died outside mainland China – one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday the world had to “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one” and the first vaccine was 18 months away.
In China, total infections have hit 44,653, health officials said, including 2,015 new confirmed cases on Tuesday. That was the lowest daily rise in new cases since Jan. 30.
The number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday.
But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the figures are, after the government last week amended guidelines on the classification of cases.
‘STAY HOPEFUL’
The biggest cluster of cases outside China is aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s port of Yokohama, with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said 39 more people had tested positive for the virus, taking the total to 175.
One of the new cases was a quarantine officer.
Thailand said it was barring passengers from another cruise ship, MS Westerdam, from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away amid fears of the coronavirus, despite no confirmed infections on board.
“We try to stay hopeful,” American passenger Angela Jones told Reuters in a video recording. “But each day, that becomes a little bit more difficult, when country after country rejects us.”
Echoing the comparison with the fight against terrorism, China’s state news agency Xinhua said late on Tuesday the epidemic was a “battle that has no gunpowder smoke but must be won”.
The epidemic was a big test of China’s governance and capabilities and some officials were still “dropping the ball” in places where it was most severe, it said, adding: “This is a wake-up call.”
The government of Hubei, the central province at the outbreak’s epicentre, dismissed the provincial health commission’s Communist Party boss, state media said on Tuesday, amid mounting public anger over the crisis.
China’s censors had allowed criticism of local officials but have begun cracking down on reporting of the outbreak, issuing reprimands to tech firms that gave free rein to online speech, Chinese journalists said.
The pathogen has been named COVID-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease and 19 for the year it emerged. It is suspected to have come from a market that illegally traded wildlife in Hubei’s capital of Wuhan in December.
The city of 11 million people remains under virtual lockdown as part of China’s unprecedented measures to seal infected regions and limit transmission routes.
Travel restrictions that have paralysed the world’s second-biggest economy have left Wuhan and other Chinese cities resembling ghost towns.
Even if the epidemic ends soon, it has taken a toll of China’s economy, with companies laying off workers and needing loans running into billions of dollars to stay afloat. Supply chains for makers of items from cars to smartphones have broken down.
ANZ Bank said China’s first-quarter growth would probably slow to 3.2% to 4.0%, down from a projection of 5.0%.
The likely slowdown in China could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off both euro zone and British growth this year, credit rating agency S&P Global estimated.
Image copyright SWALLOW YANImage caption A Chinese student puts up a yard sign of presidential candidate Andrew Yang in Des Moines, Iowa.
To some Americans, Iowa, a rural state in the middle of the US, is dismissively thought of as “fly-over country”.
Yet the Hawkeye state is well-known in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited twice – before he took office in 2012, and in an earlier stay as a low-level local official on a 1985 trip to study farming technology.
Iowa was once again a destination for Chinese visitors last week, though those who descended upon the state were not there to study soybeans, but democracy in America.
Amid its chaos, young “democracy tourists” learnt first-hand that it can be a messy way to govern.
The results of Iowa’s caucuses were delayed for days because of a technical failure, causing political uproar in the US.
But the Chinese students didn’t seem to mind.
Over the weekend leading up to the 3 February contest – the first step in selecting the candidates who will stand in the November presidential election – they could be spotted at a rally for Andrew Yang, a Democratic hopeful.
The students, aged about 16, were part of a winter break tour of the US that included stops in Iowa to see democracy in action.
The trip cost $7,000 (£5,428) – a huge sum for the average Chinese household – but Liu Junhao, 16, thought it had been money well spent.
He’d experienced something unique and meaningful, unlike his classmates’ visits to typical American tourist attractions, he said.
“If I could vote, I would vote for Andrew Yang,” he said. Mr Liu could only hear half of the candidate’s speech, but stared at him awe, star-struck, for the whole event.
Some 360,000 Chinese students now study in the US. In the UK, the figure is more than 100,000. As Chinese people become more affluent and international education more accessible to them, an increasing number of young Chinese want to study in the West.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Chinese students attend multiple campaign rallies in Iowa, including former Vice-President Joe Biden’s event
Understanding democracy has now become part of that education.
Steven Hu, a Hubei native who attends high school in Boston, has canvassed for six months for Joe Biden, working for his campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote in the primaries.
Mr Hu, 17, had ambitions beyond promoting democracy, though.
He arrived at a Biden rally in Des Moines armed with a university recommendation letter- and hopes that the former vice-president would sign it for him.
“Steven has been very proactive in making a positive impact on my campaign,” said the letter, written by the student for Mr Biden to sign.
Image copyright STEVEN HUImage caption Chinese student Steven Hu meets presidential hopeful Joe Biden
Dressed up in a three-piece suit, the college hopeful stood waiting next to the aisle, poised to pounce when Mr Biden was to pass through after his speech.
The moment came. The silver-haired politician approached. Mr Hu seized the chance to tell Mr Biden about his canvassing work, and asked him to sign the letter.
“Thank you,” Mr Biden responded. Though he appeared to be puzzled by the paper presented to him, he signed it after taking a glimpse.
However, before Mr Hu could get the letter back, a Biden aide seized it and explained the candidate was in no position to sign such a document.
A disappointed Mr Hu took it in his stride. “I didn’t expect such a letter would be accepted by colleges anyway,” he said.
He said he just wanted proof that he had participated in the campaign.
Mr Hu viewed politics as a game that everyone in the US plays – a game with high participation but low efficiency, given America’s partisan gridlock.
But he still appreciates it. “The US is a great country,” he said, “because it successfully created a system that lets everyone be a part of it.”
Some companies polled by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce said they were speeding up plans to move operations out of mainland
Transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity
China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or lower because of the outbreak, according to a government economist. Photo: Bloomberg
The majority of US firms with operations in China expect a virus outbreak
to cut revenue this year, and some are accelerating plans to shift their supply chains out of the country, according to a poll by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce.
Nearly a quarter of the firms forecast revenue would fall by at least 16 per cent this year due to the outbreak, while over a fifth said it would decline by 11-15 per cent. Only 13 per cent of respondents said revenue would see very little or no impact from the virus.
The survey covered 127 companies, including 20 with China-sourced revenues of over US$500 million and 27 with China revenues of US$100 million to US$500 million.
Sixteen per cent of respondents expected China’s gross domestic product to fall by more than 2 per cent due to the outbreak.
China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak
The death toll from the virus in China has topped 600, with more than 31,000 people infected. Widespread transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity in much of the country, and factory closures are starting to ripple through global supply chains.
China faces dilemma as it tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak fears
7 Feb 2020
A government economist said last week that China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or even lower due to the outbreak, possibly pushing policymakers into introducing more stimulus measures.
Sources said Chinese policymakers were preparing measures, including more fiscal spending and interest rate cuts, amid expectations the outbreak would have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth.
In response to the virus, some survey respondents said they were shifting operations out of China and moving more production to other areas, including India.
“Not innovative, but our suppliers are moving operations to Taiwan. This has been considered before, options and planning were being made, but they are pulling the trigger now,” according to one respondent in the survey.
“Our company will directly source from Taiwan and eliminate the mainland China supply chain for more and more products.”
TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) on Friday said production at all of its China plants would remain suspended through Feb. 16, joining a growing number of automakers facing stoppages due to supply chain issues as the coronavirus spreads.
The Japanese automaker, which operates 12 vehicle and components factories in China, said it would extend its production stoppage “after considering various factors, including guidelines from local and region governments, parts supply, and logistics.
“For the week of Feb. 10, we will be preparing for the return to normal operation from Feb. 17 and beyond,” it said in a statement.
The decision extends Toyota’s initial plans to suspend operations through Sunday, and comes as the threat from the coronavirus crisis closes in on the global auto industry.
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and affiliate Kia Motors (000270.KS) said on Friday that they plan to restart production at their Chinese factories on Feb. 17, from a previously planned Feb.9.
“We will take preventive measures against infection at factories,” a spokeswoman said.
A growing number of car makers, including those who do not make cars in China, are flagging the possibility that their global operations could take a hit if they cannot access parts supplies from the country, where there are transportation bans to stop the virus spreading.
Suzuki Motor Corp said it was looking at the possibility of procuring “made in China” car parts from other regions if it cannot access parts due to ongoing stoppages.
The Japanese automaker does not produce or sell any cars in China, but procures some components there for its plants in India, where it controls around half of the passenger vehicle market via its local unit Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MRTI.NS).
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI) on Thursday said one of its European plants could close within two to four weeks if Chinese parts suppliers cannot get back to work soon, while Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) earlier this week suspended production at its South Korean plants due to a shortage of China-made parts.
Parts made in China are used in millions of vehicles assembled elsewhere, and China’s Hubei province – the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak – is a major hub for vehicle parts production and shipments.
To limit the spread of the virus, Chinese authorities have announced an extended holiday period in Hubei and 10 other provinces, which account for more than two-thirds of the country’s vehicle production.
IHS Automotive projects plant closures through Feb. 10 would result in a 7% cut in vehicle production in China for the first quarter.
In a note, its analysts said extended closures into March may result in lost production of over 1.7 million vehicles for the period, a decline of roughly one-third of pre-virus output expectations.
“If the situation lingers into mid-March, and plants in adjacent provinces are also idled, the China-wide supply chain disruption caused by parts shortages from Hubei, a major component hub, could have a wide-reaching impact,” they said.
Other industry experts said suppliers had built up a cushion of parts in inventory and in-transit ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday in late January. Those will start to run out if factories cannot get back to work next week, or if flights to and from China remain limited.
Toyota said its plants outside China were operating as normal for the moment but it has said it was also considering the possibility of manufacturing parts commonly made in China in other regions.
BEIJING, Feb. 6 (Xinhua) — China has lodged solemn representations to the United States regarding the recent officials exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Thursday.
Spokesperson Hua Chunying made the remarks at an online news briefing when answering a question about Lai Ching-te’s visit to the United States.
China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, Hua said, stressing that China’s position is consistent and clear.
China has lodged solemn representations to the U.S. side for allowing Lai’s visit, urging the U.S. side to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques, stop official exchanges with Taiwan, and cut off all forms of contact between Lai and U.S. leaders, government officials and Congress members, said Hua.
She said the United States should handle Taiwan issues prudently and properly and stop sending wrong signals to the “Taiwan independence” forces to avoid serious damage to China-U.S. relations.
BEIJING, Feb. 6 (Xinhua) — Suspending flights by some countries against the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations will not help contain the epidemic, but sow panic among the public, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Thursday.
Spokeswoman Hua Chunying made the remarks at an online press briefing when asked to comment on some countries’ decisions to suspend flights after the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Hua said since the onset of the outbreak, the Chinese government has taken the most thorough and strict prevention and control measures, and such measures are showing positive effects.
The WHO lauded China’s strong measures and stressed many times that it disapproves of and even opposes imposing travel or trade restrictions on China, said Hua. The ICAO has also issued bulletins and encouraged all countries to follow WHO recommendations.
“We are dissatisfied with and oppose some countries going against the WHO’s professional recommendations and ICAO bulletins, and have lodged solemn representations with them,” she said.
Actions of those countries have gravely disrupted normal personnel exchanges, international cooperation and the order of international air transportation market, Hua said.
China urges the countries to think carefully and not to overreact nor restrict flights operated by airlines of both sides, keeping bilateral relations and cooperation in mind, she added.
“They should immediately correct their policies and wrongdoings in accordance with recommendations of the WHO and ICAO and take concrete actions to support China’s battle against the epidemic,” Hua said.
We can’t know a definitive overall number as the virus spreads across China, but to give an idea of the scale of the demand, let’s start by looking at the situation in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak.
Just dealing with medical staff alone, there are an estimated 500,000 across the province.
Medical advice in China is to change face masks regularly, as often as four times a day for medical teams, which would require two million masks each day.
This is the procedure being followed in one of the main hospitals in Wuhan, the largest city in Hubei province.
We don’t have a breakdown for the numbers of medical staff in other significantly affected provinces, but it would be reasonable to assume a similar pattern of usage, as coronavirus infections spread.
Then there’s the widespread use of face masks among the ordinary population, whether or not they’ve been instructed to do so by the authorities.
More than half a million staff working on public transport in China have been told to use masks
There are reports that some shops, businesses and other public premises have told people to use masks if they want to enter
It’s also important to say that culturally, it’s quite common for people in China to wear face masks, both as general protection and if they feel they are getting ill.
So, although we can’t know overall numbers of masks needed, it’s clear there’s already a huge demand which is only going to increase across China, particularly as people head back to work in mid-February after the New Year holiday.
How many is China producing?
Under normal circumstances, China produces around twenty millions masks each day. That’s estimated to be around half of all masks made globally.
However, Chinese production has currently been cut to around 10 million, both because of the New Year holiday as well as the impact of the virus itself.
That’s clearly not sufficient to meet even the current demand in China.
In addition, it’s the higher-quality masks which are most effective, and most needed.
One type, known as the N95 respirator, is designed to filter at least 95% of airborne particles, and is more effective than an ordinary surgical or medical mask, which also needs to be changed more frequently.
China currently produces each day around 600,000 of these high-quality masks, according to figures from the Ministry of Industry.
One province, Zhejiang, reported on 27 January that they needed a million of these masks each day, and other provinces have said they are only just able to meet demand for these high-quality masks.
In addition, hospitals don’t have large stockpiles of these masks – in most cases, only enough to last two weeks.
Across China, there have been reports of shortages and soaring prices, as people have rushed to buy masks.
To give an idea of this demand, the Chinese online shopping site Taobao says than in just two days in January, they sold more than 80 million masks.
Can China get masks from abroad?
China bought 220 million face masks between 24 January and 2 February, with South Korea one of the countries supplying them.
Since the beginning of February, the authorities have also removed tariffs and duties on imported medical supplies.
The US firm, 3M, which is a major producer of high-quality face masks, says the company is increasing production to meet global demand.
The UK-based Cambridge Mask Company, which makes high-quality respirator masks, says it has faced unprecedented demand, and has completely sold out.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A pharmacy in Singapore: Supplies have been bought up in countries outside China
Some countries, such as Taiwan and India, have banned the export of protective clothing such as face masks.
Taiwan says it wants to prioritise the protection of its own citizens, and has announced a rationing system for buying face masks.
There have also been reports of shortages in countries outside China because of panic buying, as fears grow about the global spread of the coronavirus.
SHANGHAI/HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s President Xi Jinping is enlisting the state-dominated financial sector in a war against a virus outbreak that has killed more than 500, mobilising lenders, brokerages and fund managers to pump resources into stricken parts of the economy.
Answering Beijing’s call, banks are rushing to offer virus-fighting loans at ultra-low rates, investment banks are helping companies issue anti-virus bonds faster, and managers of mutual funds are refraining from selling stocks, to damp market panic.
Concerted efforts to rein in the virus that emerged late last year in the central city of Wuhan highlight the centralized power the ruling Communist Party wields in a sector dominated by state-owned companies.
But the campaign, which has stirred memories of government rescue efforts during a market crash in 2015, deepens concern over corporate governance in China and risks sowing seeds of future trouble.
Wuhan DDMC Culture & Sports Co (600136.SS), a leisure company in the city, won Shanghai Stock Exchange approval to issue bonds of up to 600 million yuan (66.32 million pounds) via a “green channel” created for virus-hit companies, it said on Thursday.
“It’s like receiving charcoal on a snowy day,” the company, whose operations were wrecked by the epidemic, said on its website.
Three other companies – Zhuhai Huafa Group, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical and China Nanshan Development Group – have raised a combined 2.1 billion yuan ($301 million) this week by issuing bonds via the interbank market, to fund virus-battling efforts.
Proceeds from the debt issuance, which won quicker-than-usual approval from regulators, will fund drug discovery programmes and hospital construction, the companies said.
Regulators have also asked banks to inject cheap funds into virus-stricken areas, and not to withdraw loans from companies suffering the impact. Sectors such as tourism, transport and leisure are the worst-hit.
Bank of Suzhou, in the eastern province of Jiangsu, vowed to cut financing costs for hundreds of small corporate clients and bolster lending.
For companies such as food producers, logistics firms and makers of anti-virus drugs, it will cut the rate on loans by 10 basis points below the lending benchmark, to stand as low as 3.98%.
A loan officer at Bank of China promised special treatment for those defaulting because of virus fallout, saying the central bank would cap interest on loans to firms with operations critical to beating the virus, such as makers of masks and drugs.
He added, “Such companies will enjoy the lowest possible rates.”
But the orchestrated support also triggered concerns of moral hazard among some.
“I’m afraid many companies about to go bankrupt will come and say their businesses are affected by the virus outbreak,” said a bond fund manager, who declined to be named.
A flurry of government support has helped stabilise stocks in China’s equity market after a plunge on Monday.
Regulators have told major mutual fund companies and insurers not to cut net equity positions this week, and urged brokerages to limit short-selling activities by clients, said sources who sought anonymity.
Fund managers were also nudged to do their bit. China’s fund association, which is supervised by the securities regulator, said employees at 26 mutual fund houses had put their own money – or more than 2 billion yuan ($287 million) – into fund products since Monday.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A model displays a car at the annual Indian Auto Expo
Chinese attendees are not welcome at India’s Auto Expo next week due to concerns about the coronavirus.
Chinese guests are prevented from attending the show because of “government policy” an Indian Society of Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) spokeswoman said.
Yet Chinese cars will be on display.
Other events across Asia will be missing the large delegations that usually come from Chinese firms because of travel restrictions.
Changing car markets
India and China have much at stake in spurring domestic car sales as well as exports, making such industry events vital to drum up business.
New Indian car sales fell 16% last year and China, the world’s largest car market, saw an 8% dip as both markets saw increased turnover in used cars. However there is interest in newer models in the electric vehicle segment, according to Chinese market consultancy LMC Automotive and SIAM figures.
India’s Tata Motors, owner of the Land Rover and Jaguar brands, has developed electric car models for sale at home and abroad, while China’s SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motor also offer electric vehicles for the domestic and export markets. That makes auto shows like the one in India next week important venues to showcase the newest models.
Ripple effect
With hotels and conference fees paid in advance and lunch and dinner meetings arranged months earlier, missing a big industry show has a major ripple effect on economic activity. Events like the Auto Expo in suburban New Delhi, or the Singapore air show due to take place next week draw thousands of out-of-town guests.
In China, the conference circuit has come to a standstill with over 20,000 infections and more than 420 people dead as the virus spreads from the epicentre of the city of Wuhan.
In the case of the Singapore Airshow organisers have faced cancellations by vendors from China, including aircraft maker Comac, and reduced attendance by companies from elsewhere in the world concerned about the spread of the virus outside of China. Singapore has reported 24 cases. India to date has seen three coronavirus cases.
To mitigate the impact, both events have highlighted plans to screen throngs of guests for fever and ensure thorough sanitation measures as well as access to medical care to ensure they can carry on even at reduced attendance.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 