Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
We can’t know a definitive overall number as the virus spreads across China, but to give an idea of the scale of the demand, let’s start by looking at the situation in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak.
Just dealing with medical staff alone, there are an estimated 500,000 across the province.
Medical advice in China is to change face masks regularly, as often as four times a day for medical teams, which would require two million masks each day.
This is the procedure being followed in one of the main hospitals in Wuhan, the largest city in Hubei province.
We don’t have a breakdown for the numbers of medical staff in other significantly affected provinces, but it would be reasonable to assume a similar pattern of usage, as coronavirus infections spread.
Then there’s the widespread use of face masks among the ordinary population, whether or not they’ve been instructed to do so by the authorities.
More than half a million staff working on public transport in China have been told to use masks
There are reports that some shops, businesses and other public premises have told people to use masks if they want to enter
It’s also important to say that culturally, it’s quite common for people in China to wear face masks, both as general protection and if they feel they are getting ill.
So, although we can’t know overall numbers of masks needed, it’s clear there’s already a huge demand which is only going to increase across China, particularly as people head back to work in mid-February after the New Year holiday.
How many is China producing?
Under normal circumstances, China produces around twenty millions masks each day. That’s estimated to be around half of all masks made globally.
However, Chinese production has currently been cut to around 10 million, both because of the New Year holiday as well as the impact of the virus itself.
That’s clearly not sufficient to meet even the current demand in China.
In addition, it’s the higher-quality masks which are most effective, and most needed.
One type, known as the N95 respirator, is designed to filter at least 95% of airborne particles, and is more effective than an ordinary surgical or medical mask, which also needs to be changed more frequently.
China currently produces each day around 600,000 of these high-quality masks, according to figures from the Ministry of Industry.
One province, Zhejiang, reported on 27 January that they needed a million of these masks each day, and other provinces have said they are only just able to meet demand for these high-quality masks.
In addition, hospitals don’t have large stockpiles of these masks – in most cases, only enough to last two weeks.
Across China, there have been reports of shortages and soaring prices, as people have rushed to buy masks.
To give an idea of this demand, the Chinese online shopping site Taobao says than in just two days in January, they sold more than 80 million masks.
Can China get masks from abroad?
China bought 220 million face masks between 24 January and 2 February, with South Korea one of the countries supplying them.
Since the beginning of February, the authorities have also removed tariffs and duties on imported medical supplies.
The US firm, 3M, which is a major producer of high-quality face masks, says the company is increasing production to meet global demand.
The UK-based Cambridge Mask Company, which makes high-quality respirator masks, says it has faced unprecedented demand, and has completely sold out.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A pharmacy in Singapore: Supplies have been bought up in countries outside China
Some countries, such as Taiwan and India, have banned the export of protective clothing such as face masks.
Taiwan says it wants to prioritise the protection of its own citizens, and has announced a rationing system for buying face masks.
There have also been reports of shortages in countries outside China because of panic buying, as fears grow about the global spread of the coronavirus.
PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus (AIR.PA) has prolonged a planned closure of its final assembly plant in Tianjin, China, as a result of the coronavirus emergency, the planemaker said on Wednesday, adding it was monitoring for any signs of impact on deliveries.
It appears to be the first significant impact on aerospace production since the coronavirus outbreak, whose death toll has risen to nearly 500.
Airbus has said it is planning to raise output from the plant to six A320-family aircraft a month, just over 10% of Airbus narrowbody production, in early 2020 from a previous rate of four.
“The Tianjin final assembly line facility is currently closed,” Airbus said in a statement.
“Airbus is constantly evaluating the situation and monitoring any potential knock-on effects to production and deliveries and will try to mitigate via alternative plans where necessary.”
Industry sources said the Tianjin plant had been closed along with many businesses over the Chinese New Year but was due to reopen at the end of January.
The reopening has been suspended due to the virus outbreak hitting the logistics involved in keeping the line open.
Tianjin is one of two Airbus aircraft final assembly lines outside Europe, alongside a sister plant in Mobile, Alabama.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A model displays a car at the annual Indian Auto Expo
Chinese attendees are not welcome at India’s Auto Expo next week due to concerns about the coronavirus.
Chinese guests are prevented from attending the show because of “government policy” an Indian Society of Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) spokeswoman said.
Yet Chinese cars will be on display.
Other events across Asia will be missing the large delegations that usually come from Chinese firms because of travel restrictions.
Changing car markets
India and China have much at stake in spurring domestic car sales as well as exports, making such industry events vital to drum up business.
New Indian car sales fell 16% last year and China, the world’s largest car market, saw an 8% dip as both markets saw increased turnover in used cars. However there is interest in newer models in the electric vehicle segment, according to Chinese market consultancy LMC Automotive and SIAM figures.
India’s Tata Motors, owner of the Land Rover and Jaguar brands, has developed electric car models for sale at home and abroad, while China’s SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motor also offer electric vehicles for the domestic and export markets. That makes auto shows like the one in India next week important venues to showcase the newest models.
Ripple effect
With hotels and conference fees paid in advance and lunch and dinner meetings arranged months earlier, missing a big industry show has a major ripple effect on economic activity. Events like the Auto Expo in suburban New Delhi, or the Singapore air show due to take place next week draw thousands of out-of-town guests.
In China, the conference circuit has come to a standstill with over 20,000 infections and more than 420 people dead as the virus spreads from the epicentre of the city of Wuhan.
In the case of the Singapore Airshow organisers have faced cancellations by vendors from China, including aircraft maker Comac, and reduced attendance by companies from elsewhere in the world concerned about the spread of the virus outside of China. Singapore has reported 24 cases. India to date has seen three coronavirus cases.
To mitigate the impact, both events have highlighted plans to screen throngs of guests for fever and ensure thorough sanitation measures as well as access to medical care to ensure they can carry on even at reduced attendance.
Medical workers help the first batch of patients infected with the novel coronavirus move into their isolation wards at Huoshenshan (Fire God Mountain) Hospital in Wuhan, central China’s Hubei Province, Feb. 4, 2020. A newly-built hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, began accepting patients infected with the virus on Tuesday. The first batch of patients are being transferred to Huoshenshan (Fire God Mountain) Hospital, which was delivered on Sunday after a 10-day construction. (Xinhua/Xiao Yijiu)
WUHAN, Feb. 4 (Xinhua) — A newly-built hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, began accepting patients infected with the virus on Tuesday.
The first batch of patients are being transferred to Huoshenshan (Fire God Mountain) Hospital, which was delivered on Sunday after a 10-day construction.
The hospital is one of the two makeshift hospitals dedicated to treating patients infected with the virus.
“We made all-out efforts in preparing for patient treatment, medical materials and prevention measures,” said Zhang Sibing, head of the hospital, adding that the hospital has a set of strict procedures covering patient admission, diagnosis and treatment.
All the medics working at Huoshenshan Hospital have undergone training and qualification assessments.
In addition, the hospital has deployed more than 10 infectious disease, respiratory and intensive care experts to provide guidance on the handling of complex cases.
Wuhan also plans to convert three existing venues, including a gymnasium and an exhibition center, into temporary hospitals to receive patients infected with the virus, the headquarters for the epidemic control said late Monday.
An Airbus A380 landed at the military base of Istres in the southern French region of Bouches-du-Rhone on Sunday
Of the 180 French people who were flown back from Wuhan on Friday, one showed symptoms of being infected with the virus
An Airbus A380-84, believed to be carrying European citizens flown out from the coronavirus zone in Wuhan, approaches the Istres-Le Tube Air Base near Istres. Photo: AFP
A second French-chartered plane carrying 300 evacuees from China flew to France on Sunday as more foreigners fled China’s rapidly developing virus.
The Airbus A380 landed at the military base of Istres in the southern French region of Bouches-du-Rhone. A first French plane landed Friday.
Officials said that when this latest flight left the central Chinese city of Wuhan, none of the passengers had symptoms of coronavirus. They include French, Belgians, Dutch, Danes, Czechs, Slovaks and some citizens of African countries.
Authorities said the plane would drop off most of its passengers at Istres before leaving for Belgium with several dozen people from northern Europe. Authorities haven’t said if the travellers arriving at Istres will be put into quarantine.
Of the 180 French people who were flown back from Wuhan on Friday, one showed symptoms of being infected with the virus and was sent to a Marseille hospital for testing, French Health Minister Agnes Buzyn said.
The other passengers were being quarantined for 14 days at a large, isolated Mediterranean resort not far from Marseille near Carry-le-Rouet.
German Health Minister Jens Spahn said that two people who were flown back to Germany on Saturday were found to be infected with the virus. That brought the total of cases in Germany to 10. Spahn said the two had been symptom-free when they left Wuhan and when they arrived in Frankfurt, and that they were “doing well at the moment” in quarantine at a Frankfurt hospital.
French police officers gather at the entrance gate of the ENSOSP (French National Fire Officers Academy) where French citizens will be quarantined after their repatriation from Wuhan. Photo: EPA-EFE
Europe has 25 reported cases of people who have been infected with the virus that emerged from Wuhan: Germany has 10; France has six; Russia, Italy and the U.K have two each and Finland, Sweden and Spain each have one.
The Italian foreign ministry said permission had been given for cargo flights to fly between Italy and China.
Separately, the special commissioner in charge of coordinating Italy’s efforts during the viral outbreak said consideration was being given to letting a handful of Chinese commercial airliners fly to Italy to pick up Chinese tourists and other Chinese citizens stranded in Italy by the suspension of commercial flights.
The commissioner, Angelo Borrelli, was quoted by Italian media as saying that Italy would like those flights, if approved, not to fly to Italy empty, but instead to bring back Italians from China. There are an estimated 500 other Italians in China who have apparently expressed an interest in returning home during the outbreak, but nothing firm had been decided on those flight possibilities.
Meanwhile, an estimated 3,000 tourists and others from China are stranded in Italy and want to return to home, according to Italian media.
Coronavirus: Indonesia evacuates citizens, stops flights from China
2 Feb 2020
The death toll in China climbed Sunday to 304 and the number of infections rose to 14,380. In addition, the Philippines on Sunday reported the first death from the virus outside China.
On Saturday night, a Turkish military transport plane carrying 42 people arrived in Ankara from Wutan. The 32 Turkish, six Azerbaijani, three Georgian and one Albanian nationals will remain under observation in a hospital for 14 days, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said.
Twenty Turkish personnel who took part in the evacuation will also be kept in quarantine.
The Egyptian government said 306 of its nationals would return home from Wuhan on a chartered plane later Sunday and will be subject to a 14-day quarantine. The online news outlet Masrawy reported that authorities prepared a hotel in the northwestern city of Marsa Matruh where the returnees would be quarantined.
China’s official CCTV broadcaster has been hosting livestreams so people can watch the hospitals being built in real-time – and they have proved an unlikely hit.
The popularity of the footage has led to the construction vehicles earning unusual fame.
Cement mixers have found themselves with nicknames like “The Cement King”, “Big White Rabbit” and “The White Roller”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Huoshenshan Hospital is based on Xiaotangshan Hospital, set up in Beijing to help tackle the Sars virus in 2003.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Xiaotangshan Hospital was built in seven days, allegedly breaking the world record for the fastest construction of a hospital.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
“China has a record of getting things done fast even for monumental projects like this,” says Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Image copyright ALAMYImage copyright ALAMY
Just like the hospital in Beijing, Huoshenshan Hospital will consist of prefabricated buildings.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Mr Huang said that engineers would be brought in from across the country in order to complete construction in time.
“Engineering work is what China is good at. They have records of building skyscrapers at speed. This is very hard for Westerners to imagine. It can be done,” he added.
The decision, which follows a similar move by the US this week, came as the death toll from the outbreak soared to 259
Health officials on Friday confirmed the first cases in the UK after two people tested positive for the virus
A coach carrying British nationals evacuated from Wuhan arrives at the Arrowe Park Hospital in Wirral, near Liverpool in northwest England. Photo: AFP
Britain on Saturday said it was temporarily withdrawing some staff and their families from its diplomatic sites in China, as Beijing struggles to contain the nationwide new
The decision, which follows a similar move by the United States this week, came as the death toll from the outbreak soared to 259 and the total number of cases neared 12,000 within China.
The Sars-like virus has also begun to spread around the world, with more than 100 infections reported in more than 20 countries.
“We are committed to ensuring the safety and well-being of our staff and their families,” a spokesman for the British Foreign Office said.
“We are therefore temporarily withdrawing some UK staff, and their dependents from our embassy and consulates in China.”
He added that Britain’s ambassador in Beijing and staff needed to continue critical work will remain, and that British nationals in China would still have access to constant consular assistance.
The US, which on Friday temporarily banned the entry of foreign nationals, who had travelled to China over the past two weeks, has also made similar changes.
Two people in UK test positive for coronavirus
31 Jan 2020
On Wednesday, it authorised the departure of non-emergency government employees and their family members from its offices in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang.
And on Friday, it ordered all relatives of staff members under the age of 21 to leave China immediately.
A spokesman for the US Embassy in Beijing said it made the decision “out of an abundance of caution related to logistical disruptions stemming from restricted transportation and overwhelmed hospitals related to the novel coronavirus”.
Coronavirus outbreak: global businesses shut down operations in China
British health officials on Friday confirmed the first cases in the UK, after two members of the same family tested positive for the virus.
One of the two individuals is a student at the University of York, a university spokesman said on Saturday.
Also on Friday, 83 British citizens returned on a UK government-chartered flight from Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the epidemic.
They were immediately taken to a hospital in northwest England for a two-week quarantine.
The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.
“The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries,” said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.
Meanwhile, the US has told its citizens not to travel to China.
The state department issued a level four warning – having previously urged Americans to “reconsider” travel to China – and said any citizens in China “should consider departing using commercial means”.
China has said it will send charter plans to bring back Hubei province residents who are overseas “as soon as possible”.
A foreign ministry spokesman said this was because of the “practical difficulties” Chinese citizens have faced abroad. Hubei is where the virus emerged.
At least 213 people in the China have died from the virus, mostly in Hubei, with almost 10,000 cases nationally.
The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 other countries, but no deaths.
Most international cases are in people who had been to Wuhan in Hubei.
However in eight cases – in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States – patients were infected by people who had travelled to China.
Getty Coronavirus outbreak outside China
18 The number of countries with cases
14 Cases in Thailand and Japan
13 Singapore
11 South Korea
8 Australia and Malaysia
5 France and USA
Source: WHO and local authorities
Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, Dr Tedros described the virus as an “unprecedented outbreak” that has been met with an “unprecedented response”.
He praised the “extraordinary measures” Chinese authorities had taken, and said there was no reason to limit trade or travel to China.
The US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, has said the outbreak could “accelerate the return of jobs to North America”.
Preparing other countries
What happens if this virus finds its way into a country that cannot cope?
Many low- and middle-income countries simply lack the tools to spot or contain it. The fear is it could spread uncontrollably and that it may go unnoticed for some time.
Remember this is a disease which emerged only last month – and yet there are already almost 10,000 confirmed cases in China.
The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa – the largest in human history – showed how easily poorer countries can be overwhelmed by such outbreaks.
And if novel coronavirus gets a significant foothold in such places, then it would be incredibly difficult to contain.
We are not at that stage yet – 99% of cases are in China and the WHO is convinced the country can control the outbreak there.
But declaring a global emergency allows the WHO to support lower- and middle-income countries to strengthen their disease surveillance – and prepare them for cases.
How unusual is this declaration?
The WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern when there is “an extraordinary event which is determined… to constitute a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease”.
It has previously declared five global public health emergencies:
Swine flu, 2009 – The H1N1 virus spread across the world in 2009, with death toll estimates ranging from 123,000 to 575,400
Polio, 2014 – Although closer than ever to eradication in 2012, polio numbers rose in 2013
Zika, 2016 – The WHO declared Zika a public health emergency in 2016 after the disease spread rapidly through the Americas
Ebola, 2014 and 2019 – The first emergency over the virus lasted from August 2014 to March 2016 as almost 30,000 people were infected and more than 11,000 died in West Africa. A second emergency was declared last year as an outbreak spread in DR Congo
Media caption Inside the US laboratory developing a coronavirus vaccine
How is China handling the outbreak?
A confirmed case in Tibet means the virus has reached every region in mainland China. According to the country’s National Health Commission, 9,692 cases have tested positive.
The central province of Hubei, where nearly all deaths have occurred, is in a state of lockdown. The province of 60 million people is home to Wuhan, the heart of the outbreak.
The city has effectively been sealed off and China has put numerous transport restrictions in place to curb the spread of the virus.
People who have been in Hubei are also being told to work from home until it is considered safe for them to return.
The virus is affecting China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, with a growing number of countries advising their citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to the country.
How is the world responding?
Voluntary evacuations of hundreds of foreign nationals from Wuhan are under way.
The UK, Australia, South Korea, Singapore and New Zealand are expected to quarantine all evacuees for two weeks to monitor them for symptoms and avoid contagion.
Australia plans to quarantine its evacuees on Christmas Island, 2,000km (1,200 miles) from the mainland in a detention centre that has been used to house asylum seekers.
In other recent developments:
Italy suspended flights to China after two Chinese tourists in Rome were diagnosed with the virus; earlier 6,000 people on board a cruise ship were temporarily barred from disembarking
In the US, Chicago health officials have reported the first US case of human-to-human transmission. Around 200 US citizens have been flown out of Wuhan and are being isolated at a Californian military base for at least 72 hours
Russia has decided to close its 4,300km (2,670-mile) far-eastern border with China
Two flights to Japan have already landed in Tokyo. Japan has now raised its infectious disease advisory level for China
Some 250 French nationals have been evacuated from Wuhan
India has confirmed its first case of the virus – a student in the southern state of Kerala who was studying in Wuhan
Israel has barred all flight connections with China
Papua New Guinea has banned all visitors from “Asian ports”
Tokyo (Reuters) – Japan on Saturday moved to contain the economic impact of a coronavirus outbreak originating in China as strict new measures aimed at limiting the spread of the virus, including targeting foreign visitors, came into effect.
Japan had 17 confirmed cases as of Friday, including some without symptoms. One of the most recent was a bus guide who worked on a bus tour for tourists from China – the same tour as a bus driver who also came down with the virus.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a Saturday meeting of a government task force coordinating Japan’s response to the virus to come up with steps aimed at easing the impact of the outbreak on Japan’s economy.
Abe has made tourism a key part of his economic policy, with a large proportion of foreign visitors from China, and major Japanese companies have a number of factories in China.
“I ask ministers to compile measures to use reserves (in the state budget) and implement them as soon as possible,” Abe was quoted by Kyodo news agency as saying.
“The new coronavirus is having a major impact on tourism, the economy and our society as a whole. The government will do its utmost to address the impact.”
No further details were given, though Abe stressed ensuring that Japanese residents have access to medical checkups and masks, which have been selling out around the nation.
New measures to fight the disease took effect on Saturday, including banning the entry of Chinese holding passports issued by Hubei, where the disease is thought to have originated, as well as all foreigners who had visited the province within two weeks, whether they show symptoms or not.
The government also brought forward implementing measures including compulsory hospitalisation and the use of public funds for treatment by six days to Saturday.
Of the 2.6 million tourists who came to Japan in December 2019, nearly 600,000 were Chinese, outnumbered only by South Koreans, government data shows. Japan aims to have 40 million tourists visit the country in 2020, up from 31.8 million in 2019.
On Friday, the president of Japanese airline ANA Holdings (9202.T) said it was considering suspending flights to China after February reservations plunged, Jiji news agency reported.
JTB Corporation, Japan’s largest travel agency, said it was suspending tours to China throughout February, Kyodo news agency reported.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India sought to boost growth in a federal budget on Saturday that raised spending on farms and expressways and offered cuts inpersonal taxes, but the measures fell short of market expectations and battered stocks.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is grappling with the country’s worst slowdown in a decade, with falling employment, consumption and investment ratcheting up the pressure to revive growth.
The government estimates growth this year to March 31 will slip to 5%, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. It also warned an expected rebound the following year might entail a blow-out in fiscal deficit targets.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting the budget for the financial year beginning April 1, said 2.83 trillion rupees ($39.8 billion) will be allocated toward agriculture and allied activities, up 5.6 percent on the previous year.
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The funds will be deployed to help farmers set up solar power generation units as well as establish a national cold storage system to transport perishables.
Sitharaman also vowed to spend $50.7 billion in coming years on a federal water scheme to address challenges facing one of the world’s most water-stressed nations.
Agriculture accounts for near 15% of India’s $2.8 trillion economy and is a source of livelihood for more than half of the country’s 1.3 billion population.
Sitharaman announced a new personal tax system including cuts for those ready to give up a myriad of tax breaks. She also abolished payment of dividend distribution tax by companies to spur investment.
“People have reposed faith in our economic policy,” Sitharaman said to the thumping of desks in parliament. “This is a budget to boost their income and enhance their purchasing power.”
Opposition parties slammed the budget, saying it had failed to address the slowdown in consumer demand and investment. “The government is in complete denial that the economy faces a grave macro economic challenge,” said former finance minister P. Chidambaram.
But higher government spending has put pressure on public finances, prompting caution from rating agencies. Sitharaman said the fiscal deficit for the current year would widen to 3.8% of GDP, up from 3.3% targeted for the current year.
Gene Fang, associate managing director, sovereign risk at Moody’s, said: “India’s 2020/21 budget highlights the challenges to fiscal consolidation from slower real and nominal growth, which may continue for longer than the government forecasts.”
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
For fiscal 2020/21 Sitharaman set the fiscal deficit at 3.5 percent. Moody’s said India’s government debt is already significantly higher than the average for Baa-rated sovereigns, a product of persistent fiscal deficits.
To help finance government spending, Sitharaman set a target for selling stakes in state firms at 2.1 trillion rupees for 2020/21, more than three times the amount expected this year.
She said the government will sell a part of its holding in state-run Life Insurance Corp, the country’s biggest insurance company.
But many experts said the measures did not go far enough to address the slowdown and structural flaws.
“In a normal scenario this budget would have been considered as good providing tax benefit to the common man, corporate and focus on farmers’ incomes, but the situation required more,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services in Kochi.
Indian shares slid to a more than three-month low after a special trading session on Saturday, dented by what analysts said was a lack of sufficient stimulus measures. The NSE Nifty 50 index .NSEI closed 2.5% lower while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex .BSESN fell 2.4%
“Markets had very high expectations from the budget … these expectations have not been met,” said Deepak Jasani of HDFC Securities.
The government also announced higher duties on a host of imports from walnuts to phone parts. Taxes on imports of pre-assembled printed circuit boards were raised to 20% from 10% and there were new taxes on mobile phones ringers and display panels in a bid to boost local manufacturing.
In its annual economic report released on Friday the government predicted growth would rebound to 6.0% to 6.5% in the fiscal year beginning April 1.
Some economists say global trade tensions and the outbreak of coronavirus in China pose a new risk to economic recovery by hitting cross-border commerce and supply chains.