Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan waded into the hotly contested politics of the Pacific on Wednesday, donating face masks and thermal cameras to its four diplomatic allies there to combat the coronavirus in a region where China is challenging traditional power of the United States.
The small developing nations lie in the highly strategic waters of the Pacific, dominated since World War Two by the United States and its friends, who have been concerned over China’s moves to expand its footprint there.
Democratic Taiwan has faced intense pressure from China, which claims the island as its territory with no right to state-to-state ties, and is bent on wooing away its few allies.
Taiwan has only 15 formal allies left worldwide after losing two Pacific nations, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, to China in September.
Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic push into the Pacific, pledging virus aid and medical advice.
In its own aid programme, Taiwan has donated 16 million masks to countries around the world.
“We are a very small country, so it’s easier for us to work with Taiwan than mainland China,” Neijon Edwards, the Marshall Islands ambassador to Taiwan, told Reuters at the donation ceremony in Taipei.
China has been too overbearing, she added.
“It’s pressing too much, and it’s been trying to come to the Marshall Islands, several times, but up to this time we haven’t even opened the door yet.”
While the masks presented at the ceremony are going to Taiwan’s Pacific allies, all its 15 global allies are sharing the thermal cameras.
“Today’s ceremony once again shows that Taiwan is taking concrete actions not only to safeguard the health of Taiwanese people but also to contribute to global efforts to contain COVID-19,” said Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
Though Pacific Island states offer little economically to either China and Taiwan, their support is valued in global forums such as the United Nations and as China seeks to isolate Taiwan.
China has offered to help developing countries including those of the Pacific, and many see Chinese lending as the best bet to develop their economies.
But critics say Chinese loans can lead countries into a “debt trap”, charges China has angrily rejected.
The debt issue was a serious problem and would only lead to the spread of Chinese influence regionwide, said Jarden Kephas, the ambassador of Nauru.
“They will end up dominating or having a lot of say in those countries because of the amount of debt,” he told Reuters, wondering how the money could ever be repaid. “We are not rich countries.”
People’s Liberation Army resumes drills, including flotilla exercise in Miyako Strait
Military observers say China is demonstrating its ability while virus hampers US aircraft carriers
The Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group has resumed activities after being interrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Handout
The People’s Liberation Army has resumed regular military drills at home and overseas, moves that military experts say are a show of strength and control over
The ground forces, navy and air force of the PLA’s five theatre commands started military drills this month, with some exercises involving joint operations, according to several reports published by the PLA Daily in recent days.
As the epidemic surged in China, the PLA was forced to suspend all large-scale joint drills because of disruptions to transport and allocations of military resources around the country.
China’s People Liberation Army conducts drills. Photo: Handout
On Saturday, one of the large-scale drills resumed. A six-ship flotilla, led by the
, sailed through the Miyako Strait – just 330km (205 miles) due east of the northernmost tip of Taiwan – on its way to the western Pacific.
“In the future, the Chinese navy will continue to organise similar training schedules to accelerate and improve the combat capability of its aircraft carrier strike groups,” navy spokesman Gao Xiucheng was quoted as saying in PLA Daily.
It is the first time the Liaoning has reappeared in waters near Taiwan since sailors on four United States aircraft carriers sent to the Indo-Pacific region were infected by the coronavirus, making the Chinese carrier the only vessel of its kind active in the western Pacific.
The reappearance of the Liaoning strike group prompted Taiwan to send warships, while the US sent a P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft to follow the Chinese flotilla. Taiwanese media reported that the aircraft was the seventh American warplane sent to the region in a week.
Hong Kong-based military analyst Song Zhongping said the Liaoning’s appearance near Taiwan was not only a demonstration of military deterrence to the independence-leaning ruling party in Taiwan, but also a gesture to show off the PLA’s greater ability to contain the coronavirus pandemic than its American counterpart.
“Compared with the PLA, the United States military is weaker and lacks experience in dealing with non-traditional military operations such as battles against epidemics, because those aspects are mostly carried by the US National Guard in various states,” Song said.
“Since the threat of Covid-19 is decreasing, the PLA needs to return to their regular training to prepare for a war to reunify Taiwan by force when necessary. The possible war is very complicated as it [would] involve dealing with foreign militaries, such as US and Japanese navies.”
Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said that the PLA so far had been able to control the infection sources and channels among soldiers and officers, but that the threat of Covid-19 remained.
In pictures published by the PLA Daily, PLA officers do not wear masks while conducting drills.
Both Zhou and Song said that the Covid-19 pandemic had hit the US Navy and left a power vacuum in the region but that the PLA would not use the chance to attack Taiwan.
“Using force to take Taiwan back is still the last step, not the first priority,” Zhou said. “How to manage and maintain Taiwan’s prosperity is the most important issue of the cross-strait relationship.”
Song said the PLA still believed the US Navy had maintained a degree of combat capability even though hundreds of US sailors were infected by the novel coronavirus.
China’s famed Yiwu International Trade Market, a barometer for the health of the nation’s exports, has been hammered by the economic fallout from Covid-19
Export orders have dried up amid sweeping containment measures in the US and Europe and restrictions on foreigners entering China have shut out international buyers
The coronavirus pandemic has severely dented wholesale trade at the Yiwu International Trade Market in China. Photo: SCMP
The Yiwu International Trade Market has always been renowned as a window into the vitality of Chinese manufacturing, crammed with stalls showcasing everything from flashlights to machine parts.
But today, as the coronavirus pandemic rips through the global economy, it offers a strikingly different picture – the dismal effect Covid-19 is having on the nation’s exports.
The usually bustling wholesale market, home to some 70,000 vendors supplying 1,700 different types of manufactured goods, is a shadow of its former self.
Only a handful of foreign buyers traipse through aisles of the sprawling 4-million-square-metre (43 million square feet) complex, while store owners – with no customers to tend to – sit hunched over their phones or talking in small groups.
A foreign buyer visits a stall selling face masks. Photo: Ren Wei
“We try to convince ourselves that the deep slump will not last long,” said the owner of Wetell Razor, Tong Ciying, at her empty store. “We cannot let complacency creep in, although the coronavirus has sharply hampered exports of Chinese products.”
Chinese exports plunged by 17.2 per cent in January and February combined compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs. The figure was a sharp drop from 7.9 per cent growth in December.
After riding out a supply shock that shut down most of its factories, China is now facing a second wave demand shock, as overseas export orders vanish amid sweeping containment measures to contain the outbreak around the globe.
Nowhere is that clearer to see than in Yiwu. The city of 1.2 million, which lies in the prosperous coastal province of Zhejiang, was catapulted into the international limelight as a showroom for Chinese manufacturing when the country joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001.
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Before the pandemic, thousands of foreign buyers would flock to the mammoth trade market each day to source all manner of products before sending them home.
But the outbreak, which has claimed the lives of more than 113,000 people and infected more than 1.9 million around the world, is proving a major test for the market and the health of the trade dependent city.
Imports and exports via Yiwu last year were valued at 296.7 billion yuan (US$42.2 billion) – nearly double the city’s economic output.
Businesses, however, are facing a very different picture in 2020. Most traders at the market say they have lost at least half their business amid the pandemic, which was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan last year.
Just take a look at the situation in Yiwu and you will understand the extent of the virus’ effect on China’s trade with foreign countries – Tianqing
“Yiwu is the barometer for China’s exports,” said Jiang Tianqing, the owner of Beauty Shine Industry, a manufacturer of hair brushes. “Just take a look at the situation in Yiwu and you will understand the extent of the virus’ effect on China’s trade with foreign countries.”
Jiang said his business was only just hanging on thanks to a handful of loyal customers placing orders via WeChat.
“I assume it will be a drawn-out battle against the coronavirus,” he said. “We are aware of the fact that developed economies like the US and Europe have been severely affected.”
The Yiwu market reopened on February 18 after a one-month long hiatus following the Lunar New Year holiday and the government’s order to halt commercial activities to contain the spread of the outbreak.
Jiang Tianqing, owner of hair brush company Beauty Shine Industry. Photo: Ren Wei
But facing the threat of a spike in imported cases, Beijing banned foreigners from entering the country in late March – shutting out potential overseas buyers.
Despite the lack of business, local authorities have urged stall owners to keep their spaces open to display Yiwu’s pro-business attitude, owners said.
“For those bosses who just set up their shops here, it would be a do-or-die moment now since their revenue over the next few months will probably be zero,” said Tong. “I am lucky that my old customers are still making orders for my razors.”
The impact of the coronavirus is just the latest challenge for local merchants, who normally pay 200,000 yuan (US$28,000) per year for a 10-square-metre (108 square feet) stall at the market.
Traders were hard hit by the trade war between China and the United States when the Trump administration imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US$200 billion of Chinese imports last year.
At the time, some Chinese companies agreed to slash their prices to help American buyers digest the additional costs.
“But it is different this time,” said Jiang. “Pricing does not matter. Both buyers and sellers are eager to seal deals, but we are not able to overcome the barriers [to demand caused by the virus].”
Ma Jun, a manager with a LED light bulb trading company, said the only export destination for her company’s products was war-torn Yemen because it was the only country with ports still open.
It is a public health crisis that ravages not just our businesses, but the whole world economy – Dong Xin
Dong Xin, an entrepreneur selling stationery products, said he could not ship the few orders he had because “ocean carriers have stopped operations”.
“It is a public health crisis that ravages not just our businesses, but the whole world economy,” he said. “The only thing can do is to pray for an early end to the pandemic.”
Most wholesale traders in the Yiwu market run manufacturing businesses based outside the city, so a sharp fall in sales has a ripple effect on their factories, potentially resulting in massive job cuts.
Workers pack containers at Yiwu Port, an inland port home to dozens of warehouses. Photo: Ren Wei
At Yiwu Port, an inland logistics hub full of warehouses where goods from the factories are unpacked and repacked for shipping abroad, container truck drivers joke about their job prospects.
“We used to commute between Shaoxing and here five times a week, and now it is down to twice a week,” said a driver surnamed Wang, describing the trip from his home to the shipping port, just over 100km away.
“At the end of the day, we may not be infected with the coronavirus, but our jobs will still be part of the cost of the fight against it.”
SUIFENHE, China (Reuters) – China’s northeastern border with Russia has become a frontline in the fight against a resurgence of the coronavirus epidemic as new daily cases rose to the highest in nearly six weeks – with more than 90% involving people coming from abroad.
Having largely stamped out domestic transmission of the disease, China has been slowly easing curbs on movement as it tries to get its economy back on track, but there are fears that a rise in imported cases could spark a second wave of COVID-19.
A total of 108 new coronavirus cases were reported in mainland China on Sunday, up from 99 a day earlier, marking the highest daily tally since March 5.
Imported cases accounted for a record 98. Half involved Chinese nationals returning from Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District, home to the city of Vladivostok, who re-entered China through border crossings in Heilongjiang province.
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“Our little town here, we thought it was the safest place,” said a resident of the border city of Suifenhe, who only gave his surname as Zhu.
“Some Chinese citizens – they want to come back, but it’s not very sensible, what are you doing coming here for?”
The border is closed, except to Chinese nationals, and the land route through the city had become one of few options available for people trying to return home after Russia stopped flights to China except for those evacuating people.
Streets in Suifenhe were virtually empty on Sunday evening due to restrictions of movement and gatherings announced last week, when authorities took preventative measures similar to those imposed in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the pandemic ripping round the world first emerged late last year.
The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China now stands at 82,160 as of Sunday, and at the peak of the first wave of the epidemic on Feb 12 there were over 15,000 new cases.
Though the number of daily infections across China has dropped sharply from that peak, China has seen the daily toll creep higher after hitting a trough on March 12 because of the rise in imported cases.
Chinese cities near the Russian frontier are tightening border controls and imposing stricter quarantines in response.
Suifenhe and Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang, are now mandating 28 days of quarantine as well as nucleic acid and antibody tests for all arrivals from abroad.
In Shanghai, authorities found that 60 people who arrived on Aeroflot flight SU208 from Moscow on April 10 have the coronavirus, Zheng Jin, a spokeswoman for the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, told a press conference on Monday.
Residents in Suifenhe said a lot of people had left the city fearing contagion, but others put their trust in authorities’ containment measures.
“I don’t need to worry,” Zhao Wei, another Suifenhe resident, told Reuters. “If there’s a local transmission, I would, but there’s not a single one. They’re all from the border, but they’ve all been sent to quarantine.”
Between January 20 and April 4, PM2.5 levels across the country fell by more than 18 per cent, according to the environment ministry
But observers say that as soon as the nation’s factories and roads get back to normal, so too will the air pollution levels
Blue skies were an unexpected upside of locking down cities and halting industrial production across China. Photo: AFP
China’s air quality has improved dramatically in recent weeks as a result of the widespread city lockdowns and strict travel restrictions introduced to contain the
. But experts say the blue skies could rapidly disappear as factories and roads reopen under a government stimulus plan to breathe new life into a stalled economy.
According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, between January 20 and April 4 the average concentration of PM2.5 – the tiny particles that pose the biggest risk to health – fell by 18.4 per cent from the same period of last year.
Meanwhile, the average number of days with good air quality – determined as when the air pollution index falls below 100 – rose by 7.5 per cent, it said.
Satellite images released by Nasa and the European Space Agency showed a dramatic drop in nitrogen dioxide emissions in major Chinese cities in the first two months of 2020, compared with a year earlier.
According to Nasa, the changes in Wuhan – the central China city at the epicentre of the initial coronavirus outbreak – were particularly striking, while nitrogen dioxide levels across the whole of eastern and central China were 10 to 30 per cent lower than normal.
The region is home to hundreds of factories, supplying everything from steel and car parts to microchips. Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million, was placed under lockdown on January 23, but those restrictions were lifted on Wednesday
.
Air pollution is likely to return to China’s cities once the lockdowns are lifted. Photo: Reuters
Nitrogen dioxide is produced by cars, power plants and other industrial facilities and is thought to exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
The space agency said the decline in air pollution levels coincided with the restrictions imposed on transport and business activities.
That was consistent with official data from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which recorded a 25 per cent fall in road freight volume and a 14 per cent decline in the consumption of oil products between January and February.
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Liu Qian, a senior climate campaigner for Greenpeace based in Beijing, said the restrictions on industry and travel were the primary reasons for the improvement in air quality.
According to official data, in February, the concentrations of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide – a toxic gas that comes mostly from industrial burning of coal and other fossil fuels – all fell, by 27 per cent, 28 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively.
“The causes of air pollution are complicated, but the suspension of industrial activity and a drop in public transport use will have helped to reduce levels,” Liu said.
As the epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted to the United States and
, human and industrial activity in China is gradually picking back up, and so is air pollution.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, measured both by Nasa satellites and official stations in China, started inching back up in the middle of March and had returned to normal levels by the end of the month.
That coincided with the centre’s findings – published on Carbon Brief, a British website on climate change – that coal consumption at power plants and oil refineries across China returned to their normal levels in the fourth week of March.
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Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, a Beijing-based charity, said a stimulus plan to kick-start the economy would have a significant impact on air pollution.
“Once industrial production is fully resumed, so are the emission levels,” he said. “Unless another outbreak happens and triggers another lockdown, which would be terrible, the improvement achieved under the pandemic is unstable and won’t last long.”
After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing launched a 4 trillion yuan (US$567.6 billion) stimulus package that included massive infrastructure investment, but also did huge damage to the environment. In the years that followed, air pollution rose to record highs and sparked a public backlash.
Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s economy was slowing – it grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, its slowest for 29 years – and concerns are now growing that policymakers will go all out to revive it.
“Local governments have been under huge pressure since last year, and there are fears that environmental regulations will be sidelined [in the push to boost economic output],” Ma said.
But Beijing had the opportunity to get it right this time by investing more in green infrastructure projects rather than high-carbon projects, he said.
“A balance between economic development and environmental protection is key to achieving a green recovery, and that is what China needs.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Thousands of street children are being impacted by India’s lockdown
The sudden imposition of a 21-day lockdown in India to stop the spread of the coronavirus has thrown the lives of millions of children into chaos.
Tens of thousands are calling helplines daily while thousands are going to bed hungry as the country shuts down to battle the pandemic.
With 472 million children, India has the largest child population in the world and campaigners say the lockdown has impacted around 40 million children from poor families.
These include those working in farms and fields in rural areas, as well as children who work as ragpickers in cities or sell balloons, pens and other knick-knacks at traffic lights.
Sanjay Gupta, director of Chetna, a Delhi-based charity that works with child labourers and street children, says the worst affected are the millions of homeless children who live in cities – on streets, under flyovers, or in narrow lanes and bylanes.
“During the lockdown everyone has been told to stay home. But what about the street children? Where do they go?” he asks.
According to one estimate, Delhi has more than 70,000 street children. But Mr Gupta says that number is really much higher.
And these children, he says, are usually very independent.
“They look for their own means of survival. This is the first time they need assistance.
“But they are not in the system and they are not easy to reach out to, especially in the present circumstances. Our charity workers cannot move around unless they have curfew passes,” he says.
And passes are hard to obtain, because charities like Chetna are not considered essential services.
So, Mr Gupta says, they have been using innovative ways to keep in touch with the children.
“Many of these children have mobile phones, and because they generally stay in groups, we send them messages or TikTok videos about how to keep safe and what precautions they must take.”
In return, he’s also been receiving video messages from the children, some of which he’s forwarded to me. They give a sense of the dread and uncertainty that has taken hold of their lives.
There are testimonies from worried children talking about their parents losing their jobs, wondering how they will pay the rent now or where would they find the money to buy rations?
Then, there are videos from children who have to fend for themselves.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indian governments and charities are distributing food, but thousands are not being covered by the drive
In one of them, a boy who lives on the street says, “Sometimes people come and distribute food. I have no idea who they are, but it’s very little. We only get to eat once in two-three days.”
Because of the lockdown, he says, they are not even allowed to go fetch water or firewood. “I don’t know how we can survive like this? The government must help us,” he pleads.
The authorities say they are providing help – the Delhi Commission for Protection of Child Rights has been distributing food to street children and vulnerable families in the Indian capital. In many other cities too, local governments and charities have been distributing food to children and homeless people.
But the scale of the problem is daunting.
Mr Gupta says since it’s a complete lockdown, the government must ensure that the children are fed three meals a day.
Then, there are those he describes as “invisible children, the ones who live away from the main roads, in areas that are not easily accessible”.
“There are thousands of them and we are still not reaching them,” he says.
And it is not just the very poor who are affected. Others too are experiencing anxiety amid the stress of the shutdown.
In fact, a 24-hour emergency phone helpline for children, provided by the Indian government, has seen a massive spike in the number of daily calls ever since the lockdown began on 24 March.
In the first seven days of the shutdown, Childline India Foundation’s number – 1098 (ten-nine-eight) – received about 300,000 calls as against a weekly average of 200,000.
The helpline, that works in 569 of India’s 718 districts and at 128 railway stations, fields thousands of daily calls about child abuse, violence against children, and cases of runaway or missing children.
Now, officials say, hundreds of these daily calls are queries about the pandemic.
The callers, who can either be children themselves or an adult calling on their behalf, sometimes ask for food, but most want to know the symptoms of the infection or where they can get medical assistance in case they are infected. Many children also call to talk about their anxieties or fears about Covid-19.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Street children in cities are unable to find any work during the shutdown
Child rights activist Bharti Ali says older children are worried because many are stuck in the middle of important school exams and there is no clarity on what will happen next.
Those under 14 are worried, she says, because “parents have gone into this whole mode of don’t touch this, don’t touch that, wash your hands, use sanitiser,” and they are curious and trying to make sense of this.
Dr Preeti Verma, member of Uttar Pradesh State Commission for Protection of Child Rights, says children read and hear about the coronavirus all the time so even if they have just a minor cough or cold, they worry they have got the infection.
“They enjoyed the first few days as it was a break from school and homework, but now as the lockdown continues and the numbers of infections rise in India, many are beginning to fret.
“Now they are stuck at home, isolated from friends and the wider society, so they are beginning to show signs of boredom and even panic.”
In this situation, Dr Verma says, the parents’ responsibility is enhanced, they have to speak to the children and reassure them.
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Media caption As cases of coronavirus rise and the virus hits India’s congested slums, will the country cope?
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indore is a bustling commercial city
In early March, 40-year-old Ravi Dosi, a chest specialist in India, saw a baffling surge in patients with respiratory problems at outpatient clinics.
“There was almost a 50% jump in patients with upper respiratory issues and sore throat. They were not responding to antibiotics. Testing was still low and we didn’t really know what was going on,” Dr Dosi, who works at Sri Aurobindo Institute of Medical Sciences, a 1,156-bed private medical college in the central city of Indore, told me.
Less than a fortnight later, Dr Dosi began seeing an uptick in admissions of Covid-19 patients. Around the end of March, the hospital was receiving 28 infected patients every day.
They had dry cough, fever, and difficulty breathing. Their blood oxygen levels were low. They were reporting loss of taste and smell.
In the first wave of patients, nearly a dozen came from far-flung districts, more than 150km (93 miles) from Indore, a bustling commercial city in Madhya Pradesh state. The state has now become a hotspot, with nearly 400 confirmed infections out of the more than 6,400 infections and nearly 200 deaths across the country so far.
By the second week of April, Dr Dosi and his team of 100 doctors and nearly an equal number of nursing staff working 24/7 in three shifts, were treating 144 Covid-19 patients. (Thirty-one had been treated and sent home already.)
A total of 38 patients were in intensive care. Twenty-one of them were critical. There had been seven deaths. “We are handling the largest number of Covid-19 patients in India,” Vinod Bhandari, a surgeon and chairman of the hospital, told me.
Doctors now believe that the infection was spreading in the community long before the government admitted to it, and testing slowly ramped up. Until two weeks ago, Indian health authorities had been denying community transmission.
Image caption The hospital in Indore has more than 140 patients
Now a new study by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) using surveillance data from 41 labs in the country has hinted at community transmission: 52 districts in 20 states and union territories reported Covid-19 patients. Some 40% of the cases did not report any history of international travel or contact with a known case. (The survey was based on swabs collected from nearly 6,000 patients who tested positive between 15 February and 19 March.)
Back in the hospital in Indore, the doctors are battling the surge in infections.
Three isolation wards spread over two floors floors are stacked with patients. (The hospital has earmarked 525 beds for Covid-19 patients.) Isolation wards have younger patients with mild infection, while elderly patients with more severe symptoms are in intensive care. The oldest patient is a 95-year-old man, and the youngest is a four-month-old boy.
The team of doctors handling patients includes chest specialists, anaesthetists, microbiologists, and dermatologists. There are patients with a lot of underlying medical conditions – diabetes, hypertension, even cancer – so all the specialists have been called in to help with the treatment.
Dr Dosi wakes up early, puts on protective gear – scrubs, face masks and shields, N95 masks, gowns, double gloves and shoe covers – before going on his rounds of the patients. Doctors say they are not facing a shortage of gear yet.
They are using 22 ventilators to help the critical patients breathe, and also providing oxygen supplies to others using nasal cannulas (nose prongs).
In the isolation wards, patients are given oral medication – antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (commonly known as HCQ), an anti-malarial drug – and directed to maintain social distancing and wash their hands regularly.
Image caption The isolation wards are packed with patients
“I have never seen a challenge and crisis like this in my career. I have heard stories about an outbreak of plague in Surat [in 1994]. But this seems to be much bigger. The biggest challenge is to keep hopes alive and be positive,” says Dr Dosi.
Keeping hopes up for patients in isolation can be taxing. Three tests, say doctors, are being done for the infection – if the first test comes out positive, the patient remains in isolation for two weeks, and is tested twice on two days after the quarantine period. If the last two tests come back negative, the patient is discharged. If not, the patient has to stay in isolation for another two weeks. “It is a tough grind, mentally,” says one doctor.
For the last three weeks, Dr Dosi has been living in the hospital, away from his wife, two sons and parents. His father is a retired pathologist. They communicate via hurried video calls, between his frantic trips to the isolation wards and intensive care.
I ask him when does he expect this to “get over”, so that he can go home.
“In a couple of weeks,” he says. “The lockdown should have helped to slow down the infection.”
Dr Dosi is alluding to the strict 21-day lockdown India imposed on 24 March to halt the spread of the infection.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Health officials have been denying community transmission
Things are getting better, he says.
“I am getting 10 patients for admission in isolation wards, and two patients severe enough for intensive care every day now. Earlier this week, it was 50:50.”
It is possibly too early to hazard a guess about when admissions will slow down to single digits. As more people are tested, the number of patients can easily rise again.
It’s been unrelenting, Dr Dosi says.
Early, on Friday, I sent him a text to find out what was going on.
MUNICH (Reuters) – One January lunchtime in a car parts company, a worker turned to a colleague and asked to borrow the salt.
As well as the saltshaker, in that instant, they shared the new coronavirus, scientists have since concluded.
That their exchange was documented at all is the result of intense scrutiny, part of a rare success story in the global fight against the virus.
The co-workers were early links in what was to be the first documented chain of multiple human-to-human transmissions outside Asia of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
They are based in Stockdorf, a German town of 4,000 near Munich in Bavaria, and they work at car parts supplier Webasto Group. The company was thrust under a global microscope after it disclosed that one of its employees, a Chinese woman, caught the virus and brought it to Webasto headquarters. There, it was passed to colleagues – including, scientists would learn, a person lunching in the canteen with whom the Chinese patient had no contact.
The Jan. 22 canteen scene was one of dozens of mundane incidents that scientists have logged in a medical manhunt to trace, test and isolate infected workers so that the regional government of Bavaria could stop the virus from spreading.
That hunt has helped Germany win crucial time to build its COVID-19 defences.
The time Germany bought may have saved lives, scientists say. Its first outbreak of locally transmitted COVID-19 began earlier than Italy’s, but Germany has had many fewer deaths. Italy’s first detected local transmission was on Feb. 21. By then Germany had kicked off a health ministry information campaign and a government strategy to tackle the virus which would hinge on widespread testing. In Germany so far, more than 2,100 people have died of COVID-19. In Italy, with a smaller population, the total exceeds 17,600.
“We learned that we must meticulously trace chains of infection in order to interrupt them,” Clemens Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients, told Reuters.
Wendtner teamed up with some of Germany’s top scientists to tackle what became known as the ‘Munich cluster,’ and they advised the Bavarian government on how to respond. Bavaria led the way with the lockdowns, which went nationwide on March 22.
Scientists including England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty have credited Germany’s early, widespread testing with slowing the spread of the virus. “‘We all know Germany got ahead in terms of its ability to do testing for the virus and there’s a lot to learn from that,’” he said on TV earlier this week.
Christian Drosten, the top virologist at Berlin’s Charite hospital, said Germany was helped by having a clear early cluster. “Because we had this Munich cohort right at the start … it became clear that with a big push we could inhibit this spreading further,” he said in a daily podcast for NDR radio on the coronavirus.
Drosten, who declined to be interviewed for this story, was one of more than 40 scientists involved in scrutiny of the cluster. Their work was documented in preliminary form in a working paper at the end of last month, intended for The Lancet. The paper, not yet peer-reviewed, was shared on the NDR site.
ELECTRONIC DIARIES
It was on Monday, Jan. 27, that Holger Engelmann, Webasto’s CEO, told the authorities that one of his employees had tested positive for the new coronavirus. The woman, who was based in Shanghai, had facilitated several days of workshops and attended meetings at Webasto’s HQ.
The woman’s parents, from Wuhan, had visited her before she travelled on Jan. 19 to Stockdorf, the paper said. While in Germany, she felt unusual chest and back aches and was tired for her whole stay. But she put the symptoms down to jet lag.
She became feverish on the return flight to China, tested positive after landing and was hospitalised. Her parents also later tested positive. She told her managers of the result and they emailed the CEO.
In Germany, Engelmann said he immediately set up a crisis team that alerted the medical authorities and started trying to trace staff members who had been in contact with their Chinese colleague.
The CEO himself was among them. “Just four or five days before I received the news, I had shaken hands with her,” he said.
Now known as Germany’s “Case #0,” the Shanghai patient is a “long-standing, proven employee from project management” who Engelmann knows personally, he told Reuters. The company has not revealed her identity or that of others involved, saying anonymity has encouraged staff to co-operate in Germany’s effort to contain the virus.
The task of finding who had contact with her was made easier by Webasto workers’ electronic calendars – for the most part, all the doctors needed was to look at staff appointments.
“It was a stroke of luck,” said Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients. “We got all the information we needed from the staff to reconstruct the chains of infection.”
For example, case #1 – the first person in Germany to be infected by the Chinese woman – sat next to her in a meeting in a small room on Jan. 20, the scientists wrote.
Where calendar data was incomplete, the scientists said, they were often able to use whole genome sequencing, which analyses differences in the genetic code of the virus from different patients, to map its spread.
By following all these links, they discovered that case #4 had been in contact several times with the Shanghai patient. Then case #4 sat back-to-back with a colleague in the canteen.
When that colleague turned to borrow the salt, the scientists deduced, the virus passed between them. The colleague became case #5.
Webasto said on Jan. 28 it was temporarily closing its Stockdorf site. Between Jan. 27 and Feb. 11, a total of 16 COVID-19 cases were identified in the Munich cluster. All but one were to develop symptoms.
All those who tested positive were sent to hospital so they could be observed and doctors could learn from the disease.
Bavaria closed down public life in mid-March. Germany has since closed schools, shops, restaurants, playgrounds and sports facilities, and many companies have shut to aid the cause.
HAMMER AND DANCE
This is not to say Germany has defeated COVID-19.
Its coronavirus death rate of 1.9%, based on data collated by Reuters, is the lowest among the countries most affected and compares with 12.6% in Italy. But experts say more deaths in Germany are inevitable.
“The death rate will rise,” said Lothar Wieler, president of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases.
The difference between Germany and Italy is partly statistical: Germany’s rate seems so much lower because it has tested widely. Germany has carried out more than 1.3 million tests, according to the Robert Koch Institute. It is now carrying out up to 500,000 tests a week, Drosten said. Italy has conducted more than 807,000 tests since Feb. 21, according to its Civil Protection Agency. With a few local exceptions, Italy only tests people taken to hospital with clear and severe symptoms.
Germany’s government is using the weeks gained by the Munich experience to double the number of intensive care beds from about 28,000. The country already has Europe’s highest number of critical care beds per head of the population, according to a 2012 study.
Even that may not be enough, however. An Interior Ministry paper sent to other government departments on March 22 included a worst-case scenario with more than 1 million deaths.
Another scenario saw 12,000 deaths – with more testing after partial relaxation of restrictions. That scenario was dubbed “hammer and dance,” a term coined by blogger Tomas Pueyo. It refers to the ‘hammer’ of quick aggressive measures for some weeks, including heavy social distancing, followed by the ‘dance’ of calibrating such measures depending on the transmission rate.
The German government paper argued that in the ‘hammer and dance’ scenario, the use of big data and location tracking is inevitable. Such monitoring is already proving controversial in Germany, where memories of the East German Stasi secret police and its informants are still fresh in the minds of many.
A subsequent draft action plan compiled by the government proposes the rapid tracing of infection chains, mandatory mask-wearing in public and limits on gatherings to help enable a phased return to normal life after Germany’s lockdown. The government is backing the development of a smartphone app to help trace infections.
Germany has said it will re-evaluate the lockdown after the Easter holiday; for the car parts maker at the heart of its first outbreak, the immediate crisis is over. Webasto’s office has reopened.
All 16 people who caught COVID-19 there have recovered.
‘I felt excited and proud of myself,’ says restaurant owner and former volunteer ambulance driver Xiang Yafei
‘I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine,’ he says
Wuhan restaurant owner Xiang Yafei says he wasn’t afraid to be a coronavirus vaccine guinea pig. Photo: Handout
With more than 1.5 million confirmed cases around the world and over 88,000 deaths, the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus is hotting up.
According to the World Health Organisation, about 35 companies and academic institutions are currently working on candidate products. Among the front-runners are China’s CanSino Biologics and Moderna Therapeutics in the United States, both of which have begun phase one clinical trials.
In China, those tests, which started on March 19, involve 108 volunteers from Wuhan, the city in which the virus that causes Covid-19 was first detected.
Among them is 30-year-old restaurant owner Xiang Yafei, who spoke to the South China Morning Post about his experiences so far.
Why did you apply to be a vaccine trial volunteer?
I had been doing various voluntary jobs since the end of January when Wuhan was put under lockdown. In the middle of March, one of my friends who knew about the vaccine study asked if I would be interested in joining.
At first I was afraid because there was uncertainty [about the vaccine]. I asked around and some of my friends said there was some risk to being a candidate as I’d be injected with some kinds of virus, but I felt better after I did some research about it online.
Before joining the clinical trials, Xiang worked as a volunteer ambulance driver. Photo: Handout
Also, because the vaccine was developed by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences [a research unit of the People’s Liberation Army] and CanSino, I thought its safety should be guaranteed, as I have confidence in the PLA because several of my relatives are former soldiers. So I agreed to join the trial but didn’t tell my parents because I didn’t want to worry them.
I went to the research team’s office on March 16 and filed my application – that was before they officially announced they were recruiting volunteers on the internet. While I was at the office, I was lucky to meet Major General Chen Wei, the team leader, who explained about the development of the vaccine and assured me that it wouldn’t damage my body. That boosted my confidence.
China ‘leads world in coronavirus research’, followed by US
8 Apr 2020
When did you receive your injection and how did you feel at that time?
I was given mine on the morning of March 19 and immediately put into quarantine for 14 days at a PLA facility. My number in the volunteer group is 006, meaning I was the sixth person to get the vaccine. Before the injection, I underwent a strict physical check-up. I later learned that more than 5,200 people had applied to be volunteers.
Receiving the vaccine was no different to any other injection I’d had before in my life. I didn’t feel any pain and it only lasted about 10 seconds.
But in my heart, I felt excited and proud of myself. I understand that the vaccine will be an important part in battling this coronavirus and testing it is part of the preparations before it can be put on the market.
Xiang (right) said team leader Chen Wei (left) told him about the development of the vaccine and assured him he would come to no harm. Photo: Handout
As volunteers, our job is to work together with the scientists. After all, academician Chen [the major general is also a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering] and six members of her team have also been injected with the vaccine, and she was the first person to receive it.
They didn’t show any bad symptoms, so at that moment, I didn’t feel afraid at all. In my mind, it’s already a successful vaccine.
And how has your health been since receiving the vaccine?
I had a fever, 37.6 degrees, for the first two days. It was like catching a normal cold, with symptoms of fatigue and drowsiness. But from the third day, my condition improved and I was basically in good health.
The 108 volunteers are divided into three streams, with each receiving either a low, medium or high dose of the drug. I was in the low group so only got one dose. Volunteers in the medium group also got one and the high group were given two shots. As far as I know, everyone was fine after receiving their injections.
When will your trial result be available?
After my quarantine period ended on April 2, I was given a CAT scan and the researchers took a sample of my blood for testing. They said it would be two weeks before they could tell if there were coronavirus antibodies in my bloodstream.
I am not sure if they will tell me the result, but over the next five months I have to do four more blood tests to see if I have antibodies and how long they might remain in my blood.
What did you do to keep yourself entertained during the quarantine period?
It was just rest for me. Before then I’d been a volunteer ambulance driver in Wuhan, working every day taking coronavirus patients to hospital. I’d been really busy for more than a month, so the 14-day quarantine period gave me a chance to relax and catch up on some sleep.
I really enjoyed my time there thanks to the meals I was given, which were nutritious and varied.
The volunteers had to stay in their rooms and we were not allowed to visit each other. We were also told to check our temperature every day and to report any symptoms. I read books and exercised in my room. Some of the volunteers practised calligraphy, some played football with their toilet paper rolls, some jogged, some composed songs, and some made videos about their life in quarantine and uploaded the clips to social media. We did everything just in our own rooms.
Chinese firm CanSino Biologics is one of the front-runners in the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. Photo: Handout
So what was it like working as an ambulance driver?
It was a race against time trying to get people to hospital as quickly as I could. But I felt a real sense of purpose.
At first, I didn’t want to do such work. I was scared because all the patients had been confirmed or were suspected of being infected, and they were contagious.
I was told that no one wanted to be an ambulance driver, but I had a licence to drive a minivan so I decided to do it. I think we young people should make a contribution to society, especially during this difficult time and in our home city and home province, so I applied.
Also, [each day at work] I took a gourd with me. It is called hulu in Mandarin and has auspicious implications in Chinese, as hu sounds similar to fu, which means good luck.
How was your restaurant business affected by the epidemic?
I lost about half a million yuan (US$70,000) because of it. I decided to shut my restaurant down on January 21, two days before the official lockdown, because there had been rumours it was coming and I wanted my workers to be able to leave Wuhan and return to their hometowns.
Right now I’m making preparations to reopen my restaurant, which means a lot of cleaning and disinfecting, and thinking about serving all my customers again.
So how did you feel when the lockdown was lifted on Wednesday?
The situation in Wuhan is getting better. We are proud of what we did for this city. We hope the coronavirus cases can drop to zero soon and our lives can get back to normal.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than a billion people have been staying at home during the lockdown
Will India extend its rigorous 21-day lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus beyond its end date next week? By all accounts, yes.
On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.
Now, more than two months after the first case of Covid-19 was detected in the country, more than 5,000 people have tested positive and some 150 people have died. As testing has ramped up, the true picture is emerging. The virus is beginning to spread through dense communities and new clusters of infection are being reported every day. Lifting the lockdown could easily risk triggering a fresh wave of infections.
A harsh lockdown is certain to slow down the disease. Virologists I spoke to believe India is still at an early stage of the infection. The country still doesn’t have enough data on the transmissibility of the virus or even how many people could have been infected and recovered to develop adequate herd immunity. (It is slowly beginning finger prick blood tests to look at the presence of protective antibodies.)
More than 250 of India’s 700-odd districts have reported the infection. Reports say at least seven states have a third of all infections, and want the lockdown extended. Six states have reported clusters of rapidly growing infections – from the capital Delhi in the north to Maharashtra in the west and Tamil Nadu in the south.
Economic fallout
Not surprisingly, the lockdown is already hurting the economy. Many of the early hotspots are economic growth engines and contribute heavily in revenues to the exchequer. Mumbai, India’s financial capital and Maharashtra’s main city, accounts for more than a third of overall tax collection. The densely populated city has reported more than 500 cases and 45 deaths, and numbers are steadily rising. Authorities say the infection is now spreading through the community. Mumbai has made wearing face masks mandatory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has ramped up testing during the lockdown
Many of these hotspot clusters are also thriving manufacturing bases. The spread of infection means that they will be under lockdown for a longer period of time.
The services industry, which generates almost half of India’s GDP, is also likely to remain shut for some more time. Construction, which employs a bulk of migrant workers, will remain similarly suspended. The unemployment rate may have already climbed to more than 20% after the lockdown, according to a report by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.
For the moment, economists say, the government will have to prioritise farming over everything else to ensure the livelihoods of millions and secure the country’s future food supplies.
Half of India’s labour force work on farms. The lockdown happened at a time when a bumper winter crop had to be harvested and sold, and the rain-fed summer crop had to be sowed. The immediate challenge is to harvest and market the first crop, and secure the second.
Moving trucks to pick up produce and take them to markets, with adequate social distancing and hand washing will be something the government will have to move on quickly.
“The immediate challenge is to ensure that rural India is not hit,” says Rathin Ray, an economist. “Realistically, a complete lockdown cannot be continuously maintained beyond early May. We don’t have a choice but to reopen gradually after that.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has been under a lockdown from 24 March
There is little doubt about that. For his part, SK Sarin, who heads a government advisory panel on combating the disease, says the lockdown can be only eased in a “graded manner in areas that are not hotspots” and that the hotspots remained cordoned off.
Like other affected countries, India will have to prepare itself for what Gabriel Leung, an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, describes as several rounds of “suppress and lift” cycles.
During these periods “restrictions are applied and relaxed, applied again and relaxed again, in ways that can keep the pandemic under control but at an acceptable economic and social cost.”
Also, Dr Leung observes, “how best to do that will vary by country, depending on its means, tolerance for disruption and its people’s collective will. In all cases, however, the challenge essentially is a three-way tug of war between combating the disease, protecting the economy and keeping society at an even keel”.
It is now clear that shutdowns need to continue until transmission has slowed down markedly, and testing and health infrastructure has been scaled up to manage the outbreak.
Experts from the southern state of Kerala, a striking outlier that is containing the infection thanks to a transparent government and a robust public health system, say it isn’t time to lift the lockdown yet and have recommended a three-phase relaxation.
For most countries, easing the lockdown is a tricky policy choice. It sparks fears of triggering a fresh wave of infection and presents the inevitable trade-off between lives and livelihoods. French Prime Minister Edouard Phillipe, says relaxing the lockdown in his country is going to be “fearsomely complex”. In a crisis like this, according to his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte, leaders have to “make 100% of the decisions with 50% of the knowledge, and bear the consequences.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s financial capital, Mumbai, is emerging as a hotspot
It is going to be tougher for India with its vast size, densely packed population and enfeebled public health system. Also, no country in the world possibly has so much inter-state migration of casual workers, who are the backbone of the services and construction industries.
How will India manage to return these workers to their work places – factories, farms, building sites, shops – without a substantial easing of public transport at a time when crowded trains and buses can be a vector of transmission and easily neutralise the gains of the lockdown? Even allowing restricted mobility – allowing social distancing, temperature checks and passenger hygiene – would put considerable pressure on the public transport system.
The policy choices are fiendishly tough, and the answers are far from easy. India bungled the lockdown by not anticipating the exodus of millions of migrant workers from cities. The weeks ahead will tell whether the fleeing men, women and children carried the infection to their villages. The country simply cannot afford to make similar mistakes again while trying to relax the lockdown. Nitin Pai of The Takshashila Institution, a think tank, believes states should be left to decide on easing restrictions, and decisions “should be based on threat [of infection], which should be determined by extensive testing”.
This week Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the “situation in the country is akin to a social emergency”. His government now needs make sure that the looming threat to the nation’s health and economic progress is tackled skilfully.
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