Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Li Zhanshu (L), chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, meets with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept. 19, 2019. Li paid an official goodwill visit to Azerbaijan from Sept. 19 to 21 at the invitation of Ogtay Asadov, speaker of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan. (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)
BAKU, Sept. 21 (Xinhua) — Li Zhanshu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) of China, and top Azerbaijani officials have agreed here to strengthen bilateral cooperation in various areas.
During an official goodwill visit from Thursday to Saturday, Li met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and conveyed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cordial greetings to him.
Li briefed Aliyev on the great achievements of the People’s Republic of China since its founding 70 years ago, saying that the Communist Party of China is forging ahead on the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics in line with China’s national conditions.
The socialism with Chinese characteristics has now entered a new era, and China under the leadership of Xi is striving to achieve its “two centenary goals” and realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, Li told Aliyev.
China deems Azerbaijan as an important partner in Eurasia and is ready to implement the blueprint made by Xi and Aliyev on the development of bilateral ties, further cement political mutual trust, strengthen practical cooperation in various areas, and jointly safeguard the two countries’ security and development interests, Li said.
Aliyev asked Li to convey his best wishes to Xi and said he had witnessed the great changes in China with his own eyes during his repeated trips to the country and that he admired such achievements.
Azerbaijan-China relations are developing rapidly with a rosy future, he said, adding that his country firmly adheres to the one-China principle, and intends to combat jointly with China the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism, and improve their coordination and cooperation on international and regional issues.
LEGISLATIVE EXCHANGES
During a meeting with Ogtay Asadov, speaker of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan, Li said his visit was aimed at strengthening cooperation between the two legislatures and implementing the important consensuses reached by the two heads of state.
The Chinese top legislator suggested both sides increase interactions at various levels, exchange experience on governing the countries, and provide legal assurance for bilateral practical cooperation.
Every country has a unique history, national situation and culture, so different civilizations should coexist harmoniously and learn from each other, Li said.
The NPC of China is willing to work with the National Assembly of Azerbaijan to promote cultural and people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, learn from each other, and cement public support for bilateral relations, he said.
Asadov said Li was the first top Chinese legislator to visit Azerbaijan in 19 years and that the trip has injected new vitality into the development of bilateral relations and the interactions between the two legislatures.
Azerbaijan and China have signed many cooperation deals and the two legislatures should help to deliver on the agreements, Asadov said.
An increasing number of Azerbaijani people are interested in Chinese culture and there is a need to promote educational, cultural and youth exchanges, he said.
ECONOMIC COOPERATION
At a meeting with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Novruz Mammadov, Li said Azerbaijan is located at the junction of Europe and Asia and is an important country along the Belt and Road.
Li said China is ready to boost economic and trade exchanges with Azerbaijan and enhance cooperation with the country in jointly building the Belt and Road and achieve more cooperation outcomes in such fields as energy, agriculture, transportation, logistics, tourism and informatization.
He welcomed Azerbaijan to the second China International Import Expo to be held in early November in Shanghai.
Mammadov said his country was among the earliest participants in the Belt and Road Initiative and is ready to expand cooperation with China in various areas.
He welcomed more Chinese investments in Azerbaijan and expected cooperation with China on the construction of a Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor so that more Chinese goods can hit the Eurasian market via Azerbaijan.
During his stay in Baku, Li also visited the Heydar Aliyev Center and a carpet museum, and laid a wreath at the tomb of former President Heydar Aliyev and the Eternal Flame.
Powerful zoom functions can reveal fingerprint details which may be copied by criminals
A cybersecurity awareness campaign in China has prompted a warning about criminals harvesting fingerprint information from a popular pose in pictures uploaded to the internet. Photo: Shutterstock
A popular hand gesture adopted by China’s online community in uploaded pictures could be used by criminals to steal people’s fingerprints, Chinese cybersecurity experts have warned.
The “scissor hand” pose – similar to the peace sign or “V” for victory– could reveal a perfect fingerprint if held close enough to the camera, according to Zhang Wei, vice-director of the Shanghai Information Security Trade Association.
Speaking at an event promoting a national cybersecurity awareness campaign in Shanghai on Sunday, Zhang said photo magnifying and artificial intelligence-enhancing technologies meant it was possible to extract enough detail to make a perfect copy of the sensitive information.
According to a report by online news portal Thepaper.cn, Zhang’s advice was that scissor-hand pictures taken closer than three metres (10 feet) could be vulnerable and should not be published on the internet.
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“A scissor-hand picture taken within 1.5 metres (four feet 11 inches) can be used to restore 100 per cent of people’s fingerprints, while pictures taken about 1.5-3 metres away can turn out 50 per cent of the fingerprints,” he said.
Based on the information extracted from the pictures, criminals could make models of the prints which could then be used to register at fingerprint-based identity recognition checks, such as door access and payment systems, Zhang said.
Feng Jianjiang, a professor on fingerprint identification from the Department of Automation at Tsinghua University, told the South China Morning Post that, theoretically, pictures could show fingerprints clearly enough to be copied, but said he was unsure of what distance would be safe.
“Some people’s fingerprints could not be captured [at any distance] because of skin problems [for example],” Feng said. “But the fingerprint images would be fairly clear if the distance, angle, focus and lighting were all ideal.”
Feng suggested people check the clarity of detail by zooming in on their fingerprints in pictures before uploading them to social media.
Zang Yali, a researcher from the Institute of Automation at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, agreed that the conditions required to be able to harvest sufficiently detailed fingerprint information were “very demanding”, according to a report in China Science and Technology Daily.
The warning had been viewed on China’s Twitter-like platform Weibo 390 million times within 24 hours of Zhang’s address on Sunday, with 49,000 comments left on the website by Monday afternoon.
“It’s horrifying. I always present a scissor hand in photos,” one Weibo user wrote.
“Advanced technology has brought us convenience but meanwhile has also brought us risk and danger. What can we do now?” another commenter wrote.
One social media user had the perfect solution, writing: “No worries. just show the back of your hand to the camera if you are concerned.”
Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan meets with Peruvian Vice President Mercedes Araoz in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 2, 2019. (Xinhua/Zhang Ling)
BEIJING, Sept. 2 (Xinhua) — Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan met here Monday with Peruvian Vice President Mercedes Araoz, who is in Beijing to attend relevant activities of the Beijing Horticultural Expo.
Wang spoke highly of the current bilateral relationship, saying that China is willing to further advance mutual understanding and trust and deepen cooperation to push the relationship to a higher level.
Araoz congratulated China on the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and said her country is ready to deepen cooperation with China in such areas as trade and economy, investment, agriculture, poverty relief, science, technology and culture.
The Chief Economic Adviser, K Subramanian, disagreed with the idea of industry-specific incentives and argued for structural reforms in land and labour markets. Members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic advisory council sound inchoate, resorting to social media and opinion editorials to counter one another.
In essence, the quibble among the members of the economic team of Mr Modi and his government is not about whether India is facing an economic slowdown or not, but about how grave the current economic crisis is.
To put all this in context, it was less than just two years ago, in November 2017, that the global ratings agency Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign ratings – an independent assessment of the creditworthiness of a country – for the first time in 14 years.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionSales of cars and SUVs have slumped to a seven-year low
Justifying the upgrade, Moody’s had then argued that the economy was undergoing dramatic “structural” reforms under Mr Modi.
In the two years since, Moody’s has downgraded its 2019 GDP growth forecast for India thrice – from 7.5% to 7.4% to 6.8% to 6.2%.
The immediate questions that arise now are: is India’s economic condition really that grim and, if yes, how did it deteriorate so rapidly?
To make matters worse, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her first budget recently with some ominous tax proposals that threatened foreign capital flows and dented investor confidence. It sparked criticism and Ms Sitharaman was forced to roll back many of her proposals.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption In 2016, India withdrew 85% of all currency notes from the economy
So, it is indeed true that India is facing a sharp economic downturn and severe loss of business confidence.
The alarm over the economic condition is not merely a reflection of a slowdown in GDP growth but also the poor quality of growth.
Private sector investment, the mainstay of sustainable growth in any economy, is at a 15-year low.
In other words, there is almost no investment in new projects by the private sector. The situation is so bad that many Indian industrialists have complained loudly about the state of the economy, the distrust of the government towards businesses and harassment by tax authorities.
But India’s economic slowdown is neither sudden nor a surprise.
Behind the fawning headlines in the press over the past five years about the robustness of India’s growth was a vulnerable economy, straddled with massive bad loans in the financial sector, disguised further by a macroeconomic bonanza from low global oil prices.
India’s largest import is oil and the fortuitous decline in oil prices between 2014 and 2016 added a full percentage point to headline GDP growth, masking the real problems. Confusing luck with skill, the government was callous about fixing the choked financial system.
Media caption What is really happening with India’s economy?
This move destroyed supply chains and impacted agriculture, construction and manufacturing that together account for three-quarters of all employment in the country.
Before the economy could recover from the currency ban shock, the government enacted a transition to a new indirect taxation system of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017. The GST rollout wasn’t smooth and many small businesses initially struggled to understand it.
Such massive external shocks to the economy, coupled with a reversal in low oil prices, dealt the final blow to the economy. Millions of Indians started to lose their jobs and rural wages remained stagnant. This, in turn, impacted consumption, slowing down the economy sharply.
Not easy
The wobbly state of the economy has also thrown government finances in disarray: tax revenues are much below expectations.
On Monday, the government got a much-needed breather when India’s central bank announced a $24bn (£19bn) one-time payout for the cash-starved government. (This amount is more than the dividend paid by the central bank to the government in all five years of the Congress rule between 2009 and 2014.)
The solutions to the economic crisis are not easy.
Indian industry, fed and fattened with government protection through decades, is once again clamouring for tax cuts and financial incentives.
But it is not clear that such benefits will revive private sector investment and domestic consumption immediately.
For all the hype about the Make in India programme, hailed as the harbinger of the country’s emergence as a manufacturing power, India’s dependence on China for goods has only doubled in the past five years.
India today imports from China the equivalent of 6,000 rupees ($83; £68) worth of goods for every Indian, which has doubled from 3,000 rupees in 2014.
So, India is neither making goods for itself nor for the world.
Image copyright AFPImage caption India’s agrarian crisis is a major stumbling block
Ornamental tax and other fiscal incentives to specific industries are not suddenly going to make Indian manufacturers competitive and stop India’s addiction for affordable Chinese goods. If any, the trade spat between China and the United States only saw countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh benefit and not India.
More currency or trade tariffs are not the solutions either. The central bank has lowered interest rates and there is some push to lowering the cost of capital for industry. But again, Indian industry will invest more only when demand for goods and services increases. And demand will increase only when wages increase, or there is money in the hands of people.
So, the only immediate solution for India seems to be to boost consumption through a stimulus given directly to people, in the classical Keynesian mould.
Of course, such a stimulus should be combined with reforms to boost business morale and confidence.
In sum, India’s economic picture is not pretty.
It is important for India’s political leadership to see this not-so-pretty picture and not hide behind rose tinted glasses. Prime Minister Modi has a unique electoral mandate to embark on bold moves to truly transform the economy and pull India out of the woods.
BEIJING, Aug. 17 (Xinhua) — The central government has offered financial support of 920 million yuan (about 131 million U.S. dollars) to local governments to help counter typhoon, flood control and drought relief.
An emergency relief fund of 600 million yuan has been offered to 11 provincial regions including Henan, Sichuan and Gansu to help them control flood and deal with drought, according to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management.
Another fund worth 320 million yuan was used to support Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in flood control and typhoon relief.
Typhoon Lekima landed in east China’s Zhejiang on Aug. 10, wreaking havoc as a super typhoon. About 13 provincial regions have been affected by the typhoon.
China announced the second-highest level in China’s four-level typhoon emergency response system to deal with Typhoon Lekima and minimize casualties and losses.
Settlements along the route linking Europe and Asia thrived by providing accommodation and services for countless traders
Formally established during the Han dynasty, it was a 19th-century German geographer who coined the term Silk Road
The ruins of a fortified gatehouse and customs post at Yunmenguan Pass, in China’s Gansu province. Photo: Alamy
We have a German geographer, cartographer and explorer to thank for the name of the world’s most famous network of transcontinental trade routes.
Formally established during the Han dynasty, in the first and second centuries BC, it wasn’t until 1877 that Ferdinand von Richthofen coined the term Silk Road (historians increasingly favour the collective term Silk Routes).
The movement of merchandise between China and Europe had been taking place long before the Han arrived on the scene but it was they who employed troops to keep the roads safe from marauding nomads.
Commerce flourished and goods as varied as carpets and camels, glassware and gold, spices and slaves were traded; as were horses, weapons and armour.
Merchants also moved medicines but they were no match for the bubonic plague, which worked its way west along the Silk Road before devastating huge swathes of 14th century Europe.
What follows are some of the countless kingdoms, territories, (modern-day) nations and cities that grew rich on the proceeds of trade, taxes and tolls.
China
A watchtower made of rammed earth at Dunhuang, a desert outpost at the crossroads of two major Silk Road routes in China’s northwestern Gansu province. Photo: Alamy
Marco Polo worked in the Mongol capital, Khanbaliq (today’s Beijing), and was struck by the level of mercantile activity.
The Venetian gap-year pioneer wrote, “Every day more than a thousand carts loaded with silk enter the city, for a great deal of cloth of gold and silk is woven here.”
Light, easy to transport items such as paper and tea provided Silk Road traders with rich pickings, but it was China’s monopoly on the luxurious shimmering fabric that guaranteed huge profits.
So much so that sneaking silk worms out of the empire was punishable by death.
The desert outpost of Dunhuang found itself at the crossroads of two major Silk Road trade arteries, one leading west through the Pamir Mountains to Central Asia and another south to India.
Built into the Great Wall at nearby Yunmenguan are the ruins of a fortified gatehouse and customs post, which controlled the movement of Silk Road caravans.
Also near Dunhuang, the Mogao Caves contain one of the richest collections of Buddhist art treasures anywhere in the world, a legacy of the route to and from the subcontinent.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain was an inescapable part of the Silk Road, until maritime technologies would become the area’s undoing. Photo: Shutterstock
For merchants and middlemen hauling goods through Central Asia, there was no way of bypassing the mountainous lands we know today as Afghanistan.
Evidence of trade can be traced back to long before the Silk Road – locally mined lapis lazuli stones somehow found their way to ancient Egypt, and into Tutankhamun’s funeral mask, created in 1323BC.
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Besides mercantile exchange, the caravan routes were responsible for the sharing of ideas and Afghanistan was a major beneficiary. Art, philosophy, language, science, food, architecture and technology were all exchanged, along with commercial goods.
In fact, maritime technology would eventually be the area’s undoing. By the 15th century, it had become cheaper and more convenient to transport cargo by sea – a far from ideal development for a landlocked region.
Iran
The Ganjali Khan Complex, in Iran. Photo: Shutterstock
Thanks to the Silk Road and the routes that preceded it, the northern Mesopotamian region (present-day Iran) became China’s closest trading partner. Traders rarely journeyed the entire length of the trail, however.
Merchandise was passed along by middlemen who each travelled part of the way and overnighted in caravanserai, fortified inns that provided accommodation, storerooms for goods and space for pack animals.
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With so many wheeler-dealers gathering in one place, the hostelries developed into ad hoc marketplaces.
Marco Polo writes of the Persian kingdom of Kerman, where craftsmen made saddles, bridles, spurs and “arms of every kind”.
Today, in the centre of Kerman, the former caravanserai building forms part of the Ganjali Khan Complex, which incorporates a bazaar, bathhouse and mosque.
Uzbekistan
A fort in Khiva, Uzbekistan. Photo: Alamy
The double-landlocked country boasts some of the Silk Road’s most fabled destinations. Forts, such as the one still standing at Khiva, were built to protect traders from bandits; in fact, the city is so well-preserved, it is known as the Museum under the Sky.
The name Samarkand is also deeply entangled with the history of the Silk Road.
The earliest evidence of silk being used outside China can be traced to Bactria, now part of modern Uzbekistan, where four graves from around 1500BC-1200BC contained skeletons wrapped in garments made from the fabric.
Three thousand years later, silk weaving and the production and trade of textiles remain one of Samarkand’s major industries.
Georgia
A street in old town of Tbilisi, Georgia. Photo: Alamy
Security issues in Persia led to the opening up of another branch of the legendary trade route and the first caravan loaded with silk made its way across Georgia in AD568.
Marco Polo referred to the weaving of raw silk in “a very large and fine city called Tbilisi”.
Today, the capital has shaken off the Soviet shackles and is on the cusp of going viral.
Travellers lap up the city’s monasteries, walled fortresses and 1,000-year-old churches before heading up the Georgian Military Highway to stay in villages nestling in the soaring Caucasus Mountains.
Public minibuses known as marshrutka labour into the foothills and although the vehicles can get cramped and uncomfortable, they beat travelling by camel.
Jordan
Petra, in Jordan. Photo: Alamy
The location of the Nabataean capital, Petra, wasn’t chosen by chance.
Savvy nomadic herders realised the site would make the perfect pit-stop at the confluence of several caravan trails, including a route to the north through Palmyra (in modern-day Syria), the Arabian peninsula to the south and Mediterranean ports to the west.
Huge payments in the form of taxes and protection money were collected – no wonder the most magnificent of the sandstone city’s hand-carved buildings is called the Treasury.
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Trade enriched Venice beyond measure, helping shape the Adriatic entrepot into the floating marvel we see today.
Besides the well-documented flow of goods heading west, consignments of cotton, ivory, animal furs, grapevines and other goods passed through the strategically sited port on their way east.
Ironically, for a city built on trade and taxes, the biggest problem Venice faces today is visitors who don’t contribute enough to the local economy.
A lack of spending by millions of day-tripping tourists and cruise passengers who aren’t liable for nightly hotel taxes has prompted authorities to introduce a citywide access fee from January 2020.
Two thousand years ago, tariffs and tolls helped Venice develop and prosper. Now they’re needed to prevent its demise.
CHANGSHA, June 30 (Xinhua) — The first China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo closed Saturday in Changsha, the capital city of central China’s Hunan Province.
A total of 84 deals worth 20.8 billion U.S. dollars were reached in trade, agriculture, tourism and other fields during the three-day event, which saw 14 activities, including the opening ceremony, seminars, conferences and forums, as well as an exhibition.
Experts, businessmen and officials from China and African countries discussed the new methods of the cooperation between the two sides during the event.
International organizations including the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the World Food Programme and the World Trade Organization have sent representatives to the expo.
The expo, with an exhibition area of more than 40,000 square meters, attracted over 100,000 guests and traders, including those from 53 African countries, according to the organizing committee.
Image caption Hatkarwadi hasn’t seen decent rains in three years
Every morning Dagadu Beldar, 75, wakes up and cooks rice and lentils in his village home in India’s western state of Maharashtra. After that, there’s little else to do.
For the past three years, Mr Beldar has lived alone in his gloomy one-room hut in Hatkarwadi, a stony hillside outback ringed by forests. Drought forced his wife and three sons out of the village. The earth was parched and the wells were dry. There was little water to drink and bathe in, and the family’s millet farm lay barren.
Two sons found work at a sugar factory in Sangli, a cane-growing district some 400km (248 miles) away. Their mother looked after the third son, who went to school there. Hatkarwadi had become a bad memory.
With age, Mr Beldare is going deaf. He mostly keeps to himself in his dark room.
“He’s a very lonely man. He hasn’t seen his family in three years. All because of water,” says Ganesh Sadgar, a neighbour.
Image caption Dagadu Beldar lives alone after his family left the village because of lack of water
Across the lane, 75-year-old Kishan Sadgar’s only son left home a decade ago to work in a sugar factory far away. He lives with his wife and a pet dog. “My son hardly comes home,” he says. “And when he comes he wants to leave after two or three days because there’s no water here.”
A few doors away, Saga Bai lives with her 14-year-old deaf mute daughter, Parvati. Her only son, Appa, left home years ago to work in a factory. “He hardly comes home. He says he will come only if it rains,” says Ms Bai.
And Ganesh Sadgar, the only graduate in the village, is unable to find a bride because “no woman wants to come here because there’s no water”.
Hatkarwadi is located in Beed, a sprawling sun-baked district which has been impoverished by lack of rain. Not long ago, more than 1,200 people lived in its 125 squat homes. More than half of them, mostly men, have left, leaving behind bolted, abandoned homes. These water refugees eke a living in faraway towns and cities, where they have found work in cane farms, sugar factories, construction sites or as taxi drivers.
Image caption Yashwant Sahibrao Sadgar locked his home and left the village a year ago because of lack of water
“There is no water. Why should people stay here?” says Bhimrao Beldar, the 42-year-old headman of the village.
The night before I arrived in the village, there had been a brief burst of rain. Next morning, promising grey clouds seemed to be the harbinger of bountiful rains. By mid-afternoon, however, the sky began burning again, extinguishing any such hopes. That’s how fickle hopes are here. The last time the village had “decent rains” was three years ago.
The cruel summer has sucked the life out of Hatkarwadi. The earth is brown and cracked. Cotton and millet farms have withered away. Only two of the 35 wells have some water left. There are a dozen borewells, but the fast receding water table is forcing farmers to drill deep – up to 650ft – to extract water.
Image caption The only source of water is a few functioning borewells
Even a minor gale snaps electricity lines, so the borewells often don’t work. Water tankers – the lifeline of the drought-hit – refuse to supply because of the precarious state of the narrow strip of tar which serves as the connecting road to the village.
There’s nothing to feed the animals, so 300 buffaloes have been moved to a fodder camp uphill where the animals live with their owners under tarp. Some 75 new toilets built under a federal government programme to end open defecation lie unused because there’s no water. Most villagers borrow drinking and bathing water from well-to-do neighbours who own borewells.
Hatkarwadi is a speck on the map of Beed, where more than a million people have been hit by the drought. Deforestation has reduced forest cover to a bare 2% of the total area of the district. Only 16% of the farms are irrigated. When monsoons are good, the rain-fed farms yield cotton, soya bean, sugarcane, sorghum and millet for 650,000 farmers.
Image caption Most of the village’s 35 wells are dry
For the last six years, Beed has seen declining rainfall. Irregular rainfall patterns have been playing havoc with crops. A 10-day-pause in rainfall can end up damaging crops. Last year’s abundant rains – 99% of the average yearly rainfall of 690mm – still led to crop failure because there were four long interruptions.
The main Godavari river is running dry. Nearly all of the 140 big and small dams in Beed are out of water, as are the 800-odd wells. Two of the major dams now have what officials call “dead water” – low lying stored water, contaminated with sediments and mud. This is the water which is being pumped into ponds from where nearly a thousand tankers pick up supplies, spike them with chlorine and transport them to 300-odd thirsty villages.
Image caption Saga Bai says her son returns to the village ‘only when it rains’
Half of Beed’s 800,000 cattle have been moved to more than 600 cattle camps because of lack of fodder. More than 40,000 people have taken up work under a jobs for work scheme, and officials are opening it up for others to prevent people from going into penury. The drought hasn’t spared people living in towns: the 250,000 residents of Beed town are getting piped water only once a week or sometimes a fortnight.
“This is the worst drought in a decade,” says Astik Kumar Pandey, the senior-most official of Beed. “We are hoping that our drinking water supplies last until end of July and then we have abundant rains”.
The crippling drought in Maharashtra is part of a larger climate catastrophe which has gripped India. More than 40% of the land, by one estimate, is facing drought and more than 500 million people living in at least 10 states are badly affected.
Media caption ‘Men don’t care about drought as women fetch the water’
P Sainath, the founder and editor of the online People’s Archive of Rural India, says the lack of water is an “explosive problem”. But drought alone has not contributed to the crisis, he says. It also has to do with the appropriation of water by the well-to-do at the expense of the poor, and the skewed allocation of water.
“The transfer of water from the farms to the industry, from food crops to water guzzling cash crops, from rural to urban areas, and from livelihood to lifestyle purposes for multiple swimming polls in urban high-rises has also led to this situation.”
Back in his office in Beed, Astik Kumar Pandey peers over a live map tracking the movement of GPS-tagged water tankers in the district. It’s a dense mass of red (stationary tankers picking up supplies) and green (tankers on their way with water) trucks clogging the heart of the district.
“This is how bad the situation is. We are hoping that the rains arrive soon”.
ZADSHI VILLAGE, India (Reuters) – Three years ago, brick mason Pundlik Bhandekar was always busy as farmers in his tiny hamlet in Maharashtra commissioned new houses and nearby towns were undergoing rapid urbanisation. Now, as the rural economy sinks and the pace of construction slows, Bhandekar is struggling to get work.
“I used to get a new construction project before I could even finish one. People would come to my house to check when I would be free to work for them,” said Bhandekar, as he sat with friends under the shade of a tree on a hot afternoon.
From daily wage workers such as masons, to barbers and grocery shop owners – just about everyone in Zadshi village, some 720 km (450 miles) from India’s financial hub Mumbai, says a drop in farm incomes has dented their livelihoods.
Their woes are symptomatic of a wider problem across India, where more than half of the country’s 1.3 billion people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, as the slowdown in the rural economy is felt in the dampening sales of consumer goods, especially the biggest such as car and motorbike sales.
The slowdown has also dented Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the hinterland that propelled him to power in 2014, and political strategists say it may mean he struggles to form a majority after voting in a staggered general election that began on April 11 concludes on May 19.
Zadshi has been almost entirely dependent on annual cotton and soybean crops that, according to farmers, have given lacklustre returns in the past few years due to a dip in prices, droughts and pest attacks.
And as incomes have dropped, farmers have cut back on big-ticket spending such as building new houses, digging wells or laying water pipelines, squeezing employment opportunities for people such as Bhandkekar.
“No one is interested in hiring us. We are ready to work even at 250 rupees ($3.60) per day,” said Bhandekar, who charged 300 rupees a day when work was steady, but now gets work only once or twice in a fortnight.
LOWER WAGES, LESS SPENDING
Economic data reflects the plight of farmers and daily wage workers.
Retail food inflation in the fiscal year ended on March 31 fell to 0.74 percent, even as core inflation stood at 5.2 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research, eroding the spending power of farmers.
Inflation adjusted wage growth for workers involved in crop sowing was just 0.6 percent 2018/19 compared with 6.5 percent in 2013/14.
The value of farm produce at constant prices grew 15 percent in the past five years, compared with 23 percent in the previous five, while the manufacturing sector grew 40 percent, against 32.6 percent in the previous five years, government data shows.
“Lower rural wages will result in lesser spending, which in turn will reduce demand for goods and services that are part of the rural basket,” Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings in Mumbai, told Reuters.
The government needs to spend more in rural areas to generate employment and boost incomes, Nitsure said.
Modi’s Hindu nationalist government did introduce various support schemes in the past six months, such as a 6,000 rupees yearly handout to small farmers.
The main opposition Congress party has gone much further with its pledges though, saying it would introduce a basic minimum income, where the country’s poorest families would get 72,000 rupees annually, benefiting some 250 million people.
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT
In Zadshi, as the mercury touched a searing 40 degrees Celsius(104F), a group of villagers gathered under the trees lining a dusty road and began chatting about everything from crop prices to politics.
“What else we can do? Had work been available in urban areas, we could have moved there but even in the cities construction has slowed down,” said Amol Sontakke, an unskilled labourer who works in farms and on construction sites.
Job opportunities have slowed even in urban areas and India’s unemployment rate touched 7.2 percent in February, the highest since September 2016, according to data compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Official data is unavailable for recent periods.
The mood in Zadshi was glum. While four dozen villagers interviewed by Reuters were hopeful that if there was a good monsoon this year it could improve farm incomes, they’ve been cutting back on spending in the meantime.
“People are thinking twice before buying new clothes during festivals,” said Avinash Gaurkar, a farmer currently doubling up as a part-time driver. “Buying big-ticket items such as motorcycles or refrigerators is out of the question.”
Two years ago Gaurkar began building a house, but had to give up midway as his five-acre farm could not generate the money needed, he said, pointing towards a half-finished structure without doors.
In 2018, just four villagers bought new motorbikes compared with as many as 10 a year about four years ago, said cotton farmer Raju Kohale, whose son is sitting at home unemployed after graduating as an engineer.
“Poor monsoon or lower prices, something or the other has been hurting us in the past few years,” Kohale said.
MODI AGAIN?
In the 2014 general election, most in Zadshi voted for Modi, but the farmers’ distress has swayed many towards the opposition Congress party. That was clear from Reuters’ interviews with 48 villagers, who cast their ballots last month.
Farmers are at the bottom of the Modi administration’s priority list, said labourer Sagar Bahalavi.
“They are building big roads to connect metros and calling it development. How is that useful for us?” he said.
Some, though, want to give Modi a second chance.
“Modi’s intentions are good, it’s the bureaucratic system that is not supporting him,” said Gulab Chalakh, who owns a 20-acre farm and is among the richest in the village. “We should give him another chance.”
Li Zhanshu (R), chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, meets with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is here to attend the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, in Beijing, capital of China, April 25, 2019. (Xinhua/Zhang Ling)
BEIJING, April 25 (Xinhua) — Li Zhanshu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, on Thursday met with Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is here to attend the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.
Li said China is willing to work with Malaysia to implement the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and outcomes to be achieved at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.
He asked for enhanced cooperation between the two countries in agriculture, fishery, e-commerce, technological innovation and people-to-people exchanges, as well as parliamentary exchange and mutual learning in state governance, legislation and supervision.
Mahathir said Malaysia welcomes the Belt and Road Initiative and is willing to learn from China’s development experience and strengthen bilateral cooperation in all areas.
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