Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has more than 150,000 reported infections
On the face of it, things may not look bad.
Since the first case of coronavirus at the end of January, India has reported more than 150,000 Covid-19 infections. More than 4,000 people have died of the infection.
To put this in some context, as of 22 May, India’s testing positivity rate was around 4%, the death rate from the infection around 3% and the doubling rate of infection – or the amount of time it takes for the number of coronavirus cases to double – was 13 days. The recovery rate of infected patients was around 40%.
All this is markedly lower than in the countries badly hit by the pandemic.
Like elsewhere in the world, there are hotspots and clusters of infection.
More than 80% of the active cases are in five states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh – and more than 60% of the cases in five cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad, according to official data.
More than half of people who have died of the disease have been aged 60 and older and many have underlying conditions, hewing to the international data about elderly people being more vulnerable to the disease.
The more than two-month-long grinding lockdown, official data suggests, has prevented the loss of between 37,000 and 78,000 lives. A paper published in Harvard Data Science Review appears to support that – it shows an eight-week lockdown can prevent about two million cases and, at a 3% fatality rate, prevent some 60,000 deaths.
“Infection has remained limited to certain areas. This also gives us confidence to open up other areas. It is so far an urban disease,” says VK Paul, who heads the medical emergency management plan on Covid-19.
This is where such claims enter uncertain territory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has conducted some 180,000 tests so far
Infections are rising sharply, up from 536 cases on 25 March when the first phase of the world’s harshest lockdown was imposed. The growth of infections is outpacing growth in testing – tests have doubled since April but cases have leapt fourfold.
Epidemiologists say the increase in reported infections is possibly because of increased testing. India has been testing up to 100,000 samples a day in the past week. Testing criteria has been expanded to include asymptomatic contacts of positive patients.
Yet, India’s testing remains one of the lowest in the world per head of population – 2,198 tests per million people.
The bungled lockdown at the end of March triggered an exodus of millions of informal workers who lost their jobs in the cities and began returning home in droves, first on foot and then by train. Some four million workers have travelled by rail from cities to their villages in more than half a dozen states in the past three weeks.
There is mounting evidence that this has already led to the spread of infection from the cities to the villages. And with the messy easing of the lockdown earlier this month, there are growing fears of infections spreading further in the cities.
Rising infections and a still-low fatality rate possibly points to milder infection in a younger population and a large number of asymptomatic cases. The focus, says Amitabh Kant, CEO of the government think-tank NITI Aayog, should be “bringing down fatalities and improving the recovery rate”.
But if the infection rate continues to grow, “things are going to get pretty grim in a few weeks time,” a leading virologist told me.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions of workers have fled the cities and returned to their villages after the lockdown
Doctors in the capital, Delhi, and the western city of Mumbai tell me they are already seeing a steady surge in Covid-19 admissions and worry about a looming shortage of hospital beds, including in critical care.
When the infection peaks in July, as is expected, a spike in infections could easily lead to many avoidable deaths as hospitals run out of beds for, or delay treatment to, infected patients who need timely oxygen support and clinical care to recover.
“That is the real worry. A critical-care bed needs an oxygen line, a ventilator, doctors, nursing staff. Everything will be under pressure,” Dr Ravi Dosi, who is heading a Covid-19 ward at a hospital in Indore, told me. His 50-bed ICU is already full of patients battling the infection.
With the lockdown easing, doctors are feeling jittery. “It’s a tactical nightmare because some people have begun going to work but there is a lot of fear”, says Dr Dosi.
“One co-worker sneezed in the office and 10-15 of his colleagues panicked and came to the hospital and demanded they get tested. These are the pressures that are building up.”
One reason for the confusion is the lack of – or the opacity of – adequate data on the pandemic to help frame a strategic and granular response.
Most experts say a one-size-fits-all strategy to contain the pandemic and impose and lift lockdowns will not work in India where different states will see infection peaks at different times. The reported infection rate – the number of infections for every 100 tests – in Maharashtra state, for example, is three times the national average.
“The infection is not spreading uniformly. India will see staggered waves,” a leading virologist, who insisted on anonymity, told me.
The lack of data means questions abound.
What about some 3,000 cases, which are not being assigned to any state because these people were found infected in places where they don’t live? (To put this into context, nine states in India have more than 3,000 cases.) How many of these cases have died or recovered?
Also, it is not clear whether the current data – sparse, and sporadic – is sufficient to map the future trajectory of the disease.
There is, for example, no robust estimate of carriers of the virus who have no symptoms – last month a senior government scientist said at least “80 out of every 100 Covid-19 patients may be asymptomatic or could be showing mild symptoms”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than 4,000 people have died of Covid-19 in India
If that is indeed true, then India’s fatality rate is bound to be lower. Atanu Biswas, a professor of statistics, says the predicted trajectory could change “with the huge inclusion of asymptomatic cases”. But, in the absence of data, India cannot be sure.
Also, epidemiologists say, measures like the doubling time of the infections and the reproduction number or R0 have their limitations. R0, or simply the R value, is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. The new coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.
“These measures are good when we are in the middle of a pandemic, less robust with fewer cases. You do need forecasting models for at least a month’s projection to anticipate healthcare needs. We should always evaluate an aggregate of evidence, not just one measure, but a cascade of measures,” Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told me.
Others say even calculating the number of recorded infections every day is “not always a good indicator of how an infection is spreading”.
A better option would be to look at the number of new tests and new cases every day that would provide a “degree of standardisation”, K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, told me.
Likewise, he believes, a measure of how many Covid-19 deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country’s population – the numbers of deaths per million people – is a better indicator of the fatality rate. Reason: the denominator – the country’s population – remains stable.
In the absence of robust and expansive data, India appears to be struggling to predict the future trajectory of the infection.
It is not clear yet how many deaths are not being reported, although there is no evidence of large scale “hidden deaths”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A Covid-19 isolation ward in India
Epidemiologists say they would like to see clearer data on deaths due to pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses at this time over the past few years to quantify excess deaths and help with accurate reporting of Covid-19 deaths.
They would also like to see what racial disparities in infections and deaths there are to help improve containment in specific community areas. (In Louisiana, for example, African Americans accounted for 70% of Covid-19 deaths, while comprising 33% of the population.)
What is clear, say epidemiologists, is that India is as yet unable to get a grip on the extent of the spread of infection because of the still limited testing.
“We need reliable forecasting models with projection for the next few weeks for the country and the states,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Epidemiologists say India needs more testing and contact-tracing for both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, as well as isolation and quarantine.
There’s also the need to test based on the “contact network” to stop super-spreader events – frontline workers, delivery workers, essential workers, practically anybody who interacts with a large group of people.
“We have to learn how to manage and minimise risk in our daily lives as the virus is going to be with us,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Without knowing the true number of infected cases India is, in the words of an epidemiologist, “flying blindfolded”.
That can seriously jeopardise India’s fight against the virus and hobble its response in reviving the broken economy.
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours and its infections are 20 per cent of the global total
China to hold day of mourning for victims; Singapore announces fifth death and school closures; Boris Johnson says he’s still ill; Angela Merkel ends quarantine
A group of nurses gather in the Bronx, New York, for a strike about the lack of personal protective equipment, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world soared past one million on Thursday and deaths topped 50,000 as Europe reeled from the pandemic and the
reported the highest daily death toll so far of any country.
Despite more than half the planet imposing some form of lockdown, the virus claimed thousands more lives, with the US, Spain and Britain seeing the highest number of daily fatalities yet.
Covid-19 is currently spreading the most rapidly in the US, where there have been 243,453 infections and 5,926 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours, the highest one-day toll recorded in any country since the global pandemic began. The grim record was previously held by Italy, where 969 people died on March 27.
Here are other developments:
Singapore shuts schools, workplaces in ‘circuit-breaking’ move
Singapore’s coronavirus case number hits 1,000 after city state reports biggest single-day spike
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Friday afternoon announced most workplaces would be shut from April 7, and schools would be closed from April 8, in its
The city state has 1,114 infections and five people have died. More than 200 have recovered.
Essential services such as food establishments, markets and supermarkets, clinics, hospitals, utilities, transport and banking services will remain open.
Coronavirus: what’s behind Singapore’s U-turn on wearing masks?
4 Apr 2020
Lee on Friday said instead of tightening measures incrementally over the next few weeks, Singapore should “make a decisive move now, to pre-empt escalating infections”.
“Looking at the trend, I am worried that unless we take further steps, things will gradually get worse, or another big cluster may push things over the edge,” Lee said, describing the new measures as a “circuit breaker”.
Medical experts say the stringent measures require the cooperation of citizens to stay at home, given that local infection clusters have ballooned from six at the end of February to more than 20 currently.
People stand behind markers as they practice physical distancing while queuing up to buy food at a Singapore supermarket on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The Lion City has launched a website to help individuals with symptoms that might be related to Covid-19 decide whether they should see a doctor or not.
On the Covid-19 Symptom Checker website, individuals will be prompted to answer a short list of questions including their age, if they have any chronic diseases, if they have travelled outside Singapore in the past 14 days, or have been in touch with a suspected or confirmed Covid-19 case.
They will also be asked to choose which symptoms they are experiencing from a predetermined list including symptoms such as cough, difficulty breathing and the loss of taste/smell. The site will then recommend what the person should do next. This includes whether they should see a doctor or continue to monitor their symptoms.
China to hold day of mourning for Covid-19 victims
At 10am on April 4, 2020, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence. Photo: EPA-EFE
Flags will be flown at half-mast across the country and at embassies overseas, while all public entertainment will be halted for the day, said the State Council, China’s cabinet, on Friday.
At 10am, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence, during which sirens will blast out across the country and the owners of cars and boats should sound their vehicles’ horns, the council said.
Saturday also coincides with Ching Ming, or the Tomb-sweeping Festival, when Chinese traditionally gather to remember their ancestors.
China to stage day of mourning for the thousands lost to Covid-19
4 Apr 2020
Mainland China on Friday reported 31 new confirmed coronavirus cases, including two locally transmitted infections, the country’s National Health Commission said.
It also reported four new deaths as of Thursday, all in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak began, the commission said in a statement. The total number of infections now stands at 81,620 and 3,322 deaths have been reported from mainland China to date.
The commission said 60 new asymptomatic coronavirus patients were also reported on Thursday.
UK’s Boris Johnson still ill with virus fever
Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives
✔@BorisJohnson
Another quick update from me on our campaign against #coronavirus.
You are saving lives by staying at home, so I urge you to stick with it this weekend, even if we do have some fine weather.#StayHomeSaveLives
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in isolation with a high temperature, more than a week after testing positive for coronavirus.
Johnson made the announcement in a video posted on Twitter on Friday, saying that even after seven days, “alas I still have one of the symptoms, a minor symptom: I still have a temperature”.
“In accordance with government advice I must continue my self-isolation,” he said.
As virus rages, British love for NHS could make or break Boris Johnson
3 Apr 2020
With coronavirus deaths still rising, the PM is anxious to drum home his message that Britons must obey government orders to stay in their homes as much as possible.
On March 23 he ordered a national lockdown, with the closure of schools, stores, restaurants and leisure facilities. Under emergency laws, police have the power to fine individuals who flout the rules and break up gatherings of more than two people in public.
Germany to crack down on people flouting physical distancing rules
Police officers ask people to disperse as they gather at a park in Berlin, Germany, on March 28, 2020. Photo: Reuters
People in Germany risk being fined up to €500 (US$540) for standing too close to each other from Friday, as officials crack down on people flouting rules brought in to control the coronavirus outbreak.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has ordered people not leave their homes unless they have an exceptional reason such as grocery shopping, exercise or medical appointments.
Gatherings of more than two people are banned and a distance of at least 1.5 metres must be kept from others at all times.
Local governments have the power to set fines for transgressors, with city officials in Berlin saying their fines would be as high as 500 euros. Similar announcements have come from across Germany’s 16 states.
Bow ties to face masks: German firms shift gears in virus crisis
2 Apr 2020
According to figures by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Friday, Germany has recorded more than 79,000 cases of the novel coronavirus, and 1,017 deaths, although RKI president Lothar Wieler warned on Friday that the actual number of casualties could be much higher.
“We won’t manage to test every single person … I assume we will have more deaths than are officially recorded,” he said.
Wieler said the mortality rate would “continue to rise” in Germany. German minister’s suicide linked to coronavirus crisis
30 Mar 2020
Meanwhile, Merkel on Friday left her Berlin home for the first time in almost two weeks, after she was forced into quarantine following contact with an infected doctor.
Merkel was tested several times, with all tests coming back negative.
The 65-year-old leader has returned to her office, where she will continue to observe social distancing rules and lead the country via video and audio conferencing, her spokesman said.
Spain records over 900 virus deaths
Members of the Red Cross prepare food for families in need at a food bank in Ronda, Spain, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
on Friday recorded over 900 new coronavirus deaths over the past day, bringing the number of casualties to 10,935, in the first decline in new Covid-19 deaths in four days.
The country has the world’s second-highest death toll after Italy, but health ministry figures confirm a consistent downward trend in the rate of new cases and fatalities.
The 932 deaths on Friday was a smaller gain than Thursday’s 950, according to Health Ministry data. The number of confirmed cases also increased by less than the previous day, with 7,472 new infections taking the total to 117,710.
Why Europe’s hospitals – among world’s best – are struggling with virus
1 Apr 2020
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government has been struggling to bring the virus under control. Hospitals are overwhelmed, nursing homes have been especially hard hit in a nation with one of the world’s oldest populations, and the army has been mobilised.
Sanchez may extend the current four-week lockdown for another two weeks beyond April 11, Spanish media reported on Friday. The stay-at-home order limits people’s movement to shopping for food and essentials, while some workers are also allowed to circulate.
Passengers disembark from virus-hit cruise ship in Florida
The Zaandam cruise ship docked in Florida on Friday. Photo: TNS via ZUMA Wire/dpa
Passengers from an ill-fated cruise were carefully freed from their cabins and allowed to disembark on Friday, following the removal of 14 critically-ill people who were wheeled off to Florida hospitals bracing for an onslaught of coronavirus patients.
The exodus from the Zaandam and its sister ship the Rotterdam, both operated by Holland America Line, was expected to continue throughout the day.
Floridians were getting off first, followed by other passengers. Buses were taking people healthy enough to travel directly to the airport, where they will board chartered flights home without going through the terminal.
Coronavirus nightmare for passengers stuck on MS Zaandam ‘death ship’
30 Mar 2020
“This is a humanitarian situation, and the County Commission’s top priority is protecting our 1.9 million residents while providing a contained disembarkation option for people on board who need to get safely home,” Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said in a statement late on Thursday.
Four people have died on the Zaandam, for reasons not yet disclosed. All told, 107 passengers and 143 crew reported flu-like symptoms during the voyage, but many have since recovered.
It was unclear when the bodies of four passengers who died on the Zaandam would be removed from the ship, which set sail on March 7, the day before the US State Department warned people against cruising during the pandemic.
South Korea’s infections top 10,000
South Korean hospital’s ‘phone booth’ coronavirus tests
on Friday said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country has surpassed 10,000, with 174 deaths linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new virus.
The Health and Welfare Ministry reported 86 new coronavirus infections over 24 hours to the end of Thursday, taking the total to 10,062 cases. It also logged five more deaths.
The numbers confirmed an encouraging stabilisation of numbers, which have hovered around the 100 mark for the past three weeks, a clear downward trend which began in March after numbers peaked at the end of February with over 900 cases recorded in a day.
South Korea’s virus response is the opposite of China’s – and it works
15 Mar 2020
For a fourth straight day, more new cases were recorded from Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi province, than in what has so far been the outbreak epicentre in the country – North Gyeongsang province and city of Daegu – with the capital area registering 34 new cases, and the latter recording 23.
Imported cases in patients recently returned from abroad also continued to increase, with 22 new infections bringing the total to 264.
Japan to give US$2,800 payouts to households
A man seen in a protective mask at Shinjuku in Tokyo, Japan, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Japanese ruling party executive Fumio Kishida said on Friday he has agreed with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen (US$2,800) in cash payments per household that suffers a certain degree of income declines from the coronavirus pandemic.
About 10 million of Japan’s 58 million households are expected to be eligible for the cash programme, a key pillar of an emergency economic package that the government plans to compile possibly on Tuesday.
The relief measure will be funded by a supplementary budget for this fiscal year that the government wants to pass in parliament before Japan’s Golden Week holiday starts in early May.
Coronavirus: Tokyo’s nightlife districts linked to rise in cases
2 Apr 2020
The government will not set a household income limit for the cash handout, which will be tax free, officials said.
“If we set an income limit, we would have to check individual incomes, which would take a lot of time,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, told a press conference. “Instead of that, we’ll come up with an unprecedented way (to judge who should receive cash).”
Nishimura said recipients will be limited to those who are facing livelihood difficulties, and that civil servants, politicians and major corporate executives who have not been significantly affected by the economic impact of the virus outbreak, for example, will be excluded from the scheme.
Japan weighs cost of Tokyo lockdown and Wagyu beef coupons for households
31 Mar 2020
Abe said the government will provide cash “as soon as possible” not only to households but also to small-and mid-sized business operators that have seen their revenues drop.
Abe has said the package to tackle the coronavirus will be larger than the 56.8 trillion yen emergency package compiled in April 2009 following the previous year’s global financial crisis.
Indonesian Muslims banned from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr
A police officer in a coronavirus helmet sprays disinfectant at a motorcycle in East Java, Indonesia, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Islamic scholars in Indonesia on Friday issued an edict to forbid people from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, as the country recorded nearly 2,000 infections during the
decided to allow millions of Muslims to travel to celebrate Eid in their hometowns next month, despite fears that they could spread the Covid-19 disease.
“The virus spreads very easily. Doing something like that at a time of a pandemic is haram [forbidden],” the council’s sectary general Anwar Abbas said.
Eid al-Fitr is expected to start on May 23, depending on the sighting of the new moon.
Indonesia frees 18,000 prisoners as virus death toll surges to 170
2 Apr 2020
Indonesia confirmed 196 new infections on Friday, bringing the total number of cases to 1,986.
The death toll rose to 181 after 11 new deaths, making Indonesia the the country with the highest number of fatalities in Asia outside China.
The State Intelligence Agency warned that the outbreak in Indonesia could peak in June with more than 105,000 cases.
Thailand’s night curfew to begin; people banned from making virus pranks
An officer checks the temperature of a passenger in a bus at a health checkpoint in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Thailand will on Friday night begin a daily nationwide curfew to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The 10pm-4am curfew, which will run indefinitely, is the latest measure by the government to curb gatherings and have people stay at home as much as possible.
Exceptions include those people transporting medical supplies and health workers travelling to and from work, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said.
“We prioritise health over freedom,” Prayuth said. “We might not feel as comfortable as before, but we all need to adapt for survival and have social responsibility, so that we can make it through this crisis.”
In a televised address, Prayuth also asked all Thai citizens abroad to “delay” returning to
until after April 15 in a bid to stop imported cases.
Thai king remains in Germany during pandemic, prompting criticism online
23 Mar 2020
Thais have also been banned from making public gatherings, in an order signed on Friday by defence forces chief General Pornpipat Benyasri.
The order prohibits people from public gatherings, carrying out activities, or gathering for unlawful purposes in a manner that risks spreading the coronavirus.
It also bans any act that aggravates people’s suffering and pranks to spread the virus. Family gatherings at residences and civic activities carried out according to safe social distancing guidelines are allowed.
Violation of the order carries a maximum penalty of two years’ imprisonment and a fine of 40,000 baht (US$1,215).
Pakistan’s mosques remain open amid shutdowns
Coronavirus: In Pakistan food aid is distributed to the poor in Karachi
Mosques in Pakistan were allowed to remain open on Friday, when adherents gather for weekly prayers, even as much of the country had shut down.
Pakistan, with 2,450 confirmed coronavirus cases and 35 deaths, has been sharply criticised for moving too slowly to curb large gatherings.
Prime Minister Imran Khan was relying on restricting the size of congregations attending mosques and advice to stay at home from religious groups like the country’s Islamic Ideology Council.
Coronavirus: Pakistan quarantines pilgrims returning from Iran
4 Mar 2020
However, some provinces had issued their own lockdown orders to prevent Muslims from gathering for Friday prayers.
In southern Sindh province, a complete lockdown was being enforced from noon until 3pm, the time when the faithful gather for prayers. Anyone found on the streets would be arrested, according to the provincial local government minister in a statement.
In eastern Punjab province, where 60 per cent of Pakistan’s 220 million people live, checkpoints had been set up in major cities stopping people from congregating.
Tunisia ‘robocop’ enforces virus lockdown
The PGuard robot patrols the streets of Tunis, in Tunisia, on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia’s interior ministry has deployed a police robot to patrol the streets of the capital and enforce a lockdown as the country battles the spread of coronavirus.
Known as PGuard, the “robocop” is remotely operated and equipped with infrared and thermal imaging cameras, in addition to a sound and light alarm system.
In images and a soundtrack posted on the interior ministry’s website last month, PGuard calls out to suspected violators of the lockdown: “What are you doing? Show me your ID. You don’t know there’s a lockdown?”
The PGuard robot checks the exit permit of a citizen in Tunis on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia has been under night-time curfew since March 17 and authorities imposed stricter lockdown orders from March 22.
Fourteen people have died from coronavirus in Tunisia, where 455 confirmed cases have tested positive for the disease.
The robot’s Tunisian creator Anis Sahbani said the machine was first produced in 2015 essentially to carry out security patrols and it also operates autonomously through artificial intelligence.
The robot, built by Sahbani’s Enova Robotics firm, costs between 100,000 and 130,000 euros (US$100,000 and $140,000), and has been selling mostly overseas to companies for security uses.
France death tally passes 5,000
A cashier runs a store counter covered up with a plastic barrier in Paris, France, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Xinhua
reported a jump in coronavirus deaths on Thursday as the country included fatalities in some nursing homes for the first time. Still, a decline in intensive-care admissions suggest the country’s lockdown is starting to slow the pace of the outbreak.
The health ministry reported 471 new hospital deaths from the coronavirus on Thursday. In addition, it reported 884 deaths in a partial count from nursing homes, bringing the total number to 5,387. Nursing homes were not previously included in the statistics.
in number of deaths, behind Italy and Spain. The number of confirmed cases is now at 59,105.
Italy reported another 760 fatalities on Thursday. Its death toll, already the world’s highest, now stands at 13,915. Total infections, including recoveries and deaths, have reached 115,242.
Spain reported 950 more deaths from the coronavirus, the most in a single day, taking the total to 10,003.
India plans staggered exit from lockdown
Indian policemen in Hyderabad, India, wear virus-themed helmets for a campaign to raise awareness at preventing the spread of the coronavirus on April 2, 2020. Photo: AP
infections, but the world’s biggest shutdown has left millions without jobs and forced migrant workers to flee to their villages for food and shelter.
After violence, Indian police try humour to enforce virus lockdown
2 Apr 2020
He told state chief ministers that the shutdown had helped limit infections but that the situation remained far from satisfactory around the world and there could be a second wave.
“Prime minister said that it is important to formulate a common exit strategy to ensure staggered re-emergence of the population once lockdown ends,” the government quoted him as saying in a video conference.
India has had 2,069 confirmed infections, of whom 53 have died, low figures by comparison with the US, China, Italy and Spain. But the big worry is the
because of a gathering held by a Muslim missionary group last month that has spawned dozens of cases across the country, officials said.
Five-minute virus tests ‘may give inaccurate results’
A Chinese drug and diagnostic firm has cautioned that the slew of new test kits that promise to detect the coronavirus in just a few minutes may not be as accurate as conventional kits, a potential setback for countries seeking to rapidly test their citizens.
“Such rapid testing is not as accurate as the traditional nucleic acid test that takes about two hours to turn out results,” Wu Yifang, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group’s chief executive officer, said. The drugmaker also has a swift testing technology but it’s working on making the results more accurate, according to Wu.
Coronavirus nightmare of China’s ‘recovered’ patients
2 Apr 2020
Abbott Laboratories unveiled a coronavirus test on March 28 that can confirm if someone is infected in as little as five minutes. Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology has been supplying its version of rapid testing kits to the European Union even before getting regulatory approval in China for domestic use.
The faster and easy-to-deploy diagnostic kits seemingly save time and resources for nations under pressure to widen their testing efforts. But there have been reports of faulty kits, like those bought by Spain and the Czech Republic.
Shenzhen Bioeasy, which sold thousands of test kits to Spain, said in a statement on March 27 that false results could be due to improper use of its kits or faulty specimen collection.
Trump tests negative again
US President Donald Trump was was first tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive. Photo: UPI/Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump on Thursday was tested again to determine whether he had been infected by the coronavirus, and the test came back negative, the White House said.
A letter from Trump’s doctor, Sean Conley, said Trump had undergone what was a second test for coronavirus. He was tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive.
Trump to urge Americans to wear masks when outside
3 Apr 2020
Conley said in a letter released by the White House that Trump was tested with a new, rapid point-of-contact test and the result came back in 15 minutes.
“He is healthy and without symptoms,” Conley said.
Trump said Americans should wear protective face masks if they wish. “If people want to wear them, they can” he said. Scarves work just as well, he said.
NRA sues NY governor over closure of gun stores
A pedestrian pushes a stroller as people wait in line outside a gun store to buy supplies on March 15, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The National Rifle Association (NRA) sued New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for closing gun shops during the coronavirus pandemic, saying the restriction is unconstitutional and leaves citizens defenceless while prisoners are being released early as a result of the crisis.
Cuomo’s March 20 executive order that included firearms retailers as non-essential businesses, which must close is a “pointless and arbitrary attack on the constitutional rights of New York citizens and residents,” the NRA said in a complaint filed late Thursday in Syracuse, New York.
New York ordered most businesses to close to prevent the spread of the virus, but deemed grocery stores, liquor stores, pharmacies and restaurants that do take-out as essential and allowed them to remain open.
The New York lawsuit follows similar action the NRA took in Northern California, where it sued several cities including San Jose for ordering gun stores to close.
Corona beer producer halts brewing
The Mexican brewer of Corona beer said on Thursday it was suspending production because of the health emergency in the country over the Covid-19 pandemic.
Grupo Modelo said the measure was in line with the Mexican government’s order to suspend all non-essential activities until April 30 to slow the spread of coronavirus.
“We are in the process of lowering production at our plants to the bare minimum,” the company said in a statement, adding it would complete the suspension in the following days.
Mexico’s government has said that only key sectors such as agribusiness will be able to continue to function.
US stops issuing passports, except in emergencies
The US State Department will not be processing new passports and renewals except for emergency cases because of the coronavirus pandemic, the agency’s website said.
“Due to public health measures to limit the spread of Covid-19, effective March 20, 2020, we are only able to offer service for customers with a qualified life-or-death emergency and who need a passport for immediate international travel within 72 hours,” said a March 27 online statement.
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Passport applications received on or before March 19 will be processed.
Travellers who paid extra for expedited service can expect to receive their passport in the next two to three weeks.
If you applied in-person at a passport agency or centre before March 19, the agency will contact you about getting your passport.
US death toll passes 3,000 as New York’s hospitals are pushed to breaking point
Italy extends lockdown as cases exceed 100,000; UN Security Council votes by email for first time
The USNS Comfort passes the Statue of Liberty as it enters New York Harbour on Monday. Photo: Reuters
Harsh lockdowns aimed at halting the march of the coronavirus pandemic extended worldwide Monday as the death toll soared toward 37,000 amid new waves of US outbreaks.
The tough measures that have confined some two-fifths of the globe’s population to their homes were broadened. Moscow and Lagos joined the roll call of cities around the globe with eerily empty streets, while Virginia and Maryland became the latest US states to announce emergency stay-at-home orders, followed quickly by the capital city Washington.
In a symbol of the scale of the challenge facing humanity, a US military medical ship sailed into New York to relieve the pressure on overwhelmed hospitals bracing for the peak of the pandemic.
France reported its highest daily number of deaths since the outbreak began, saying 418 more people had succumbed in hospital.
Spain, which announced another 812 virus deaths in 24 hours, joined the United States and Italy in surpassing the number of cases in China, where the disease was first detected in December.
On Tuesday, mainland China reported a rise in new confirmed coronavirus cases, reversing four days of declines, due to an uptick in infections involving travellers arriving from overseas.
Mainland China had 48 new cases on Monday, the National Health Commission said, up from 31 new infections a day earlier.
All of the 48 cases were imported, bringing the total number of imported cases in China to 771 as of Monday.
There was no reported new case of local infection on Monday, according to the National Health Commission. The total number of infections reported in mainland China stood at 81,518 and the death toll at 3,305. Globally, more than 760,000 have been infected, according to official figures.
Here are the developments:
Hospital ship arrives in New York
New York’s governor issued an urgent appeal for medical volunteers Monday amid a “staggering” number of deaths from the coronavirus, saying: “Please come help us in New York, now.”
The plea from Governor Andrew Cuomo came as the death toll in New York State climbed past 1,200 – with most of the victims in the big city – and authorities warned that the crisis pushing New York’s hospitals to the breaking point is just a preview of what other cities across the US could soon face.
Cuomo said the city needs 1 million additional health care workers.
“We’ve lost over 1,000 New Yorkers,” he said. “To me, we’re beyond staggering already. We’ve reached staggering.”
The governor’s plea came as a 1,000-bed US Navy hospital ship docked in Manhattan on Monday and a field hospital was going up in Central Park for coronavirus patients.
New York City reported 914 deaths from the virus as of 4:30pm local time Monday, a 16 per cent increase from an update six hours earlier. The city, the epicentre of the US outbreak, has 38,087 confirmed cases, up by more than 1,800 from earlier in the day.
Coronavirus field hospital set up in New York’s Central Park as city’s health crisis deepens
Gloom for 24 million people in Asia
The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will prevent almost 24 million people from escaping poverty in East Asia and the Pacific this year, according to the World Bank.
In a report released on Monday, the Washington-based lender also warned of “substantially higher risk” among households that depend on industries particularly vulnerable to the impact of Covid-19. These include tourism in Thailand and the Pacific islands; manufacturing in Vietnam and Cambodia; and among people dependent on “informal labour” in all countries.
The World Bank urged the region to invest in expanding conventional health care and medical equipment factories, as well as taking innovative measures like converting ordinary hospital beds for ICU use and rapidly trining people to work in basic care.
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Indonesia bans entry of foreigners
Indonesia barred foreign nationals from entering the country as the world’s fourth-most populous country stepped up efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The travel ban, to be effective soon, will also cover foreigners transiting through the country, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said after a cabinet meeting in Jakarta Tuesday. The curbs will not apply to holders of work permits, diplomats and other official visitors, she said.
The curbs on foreign citizens is the latest in a raft of measures taken by Indonesia to combat the deadly virus that’s sickened more than 1,400 people and killed 122. President Joko Widodo’s administration previously banned flights to and from mainland China and some of the virus-hit regions in Italy, South Korea and Iran. The president on Monday ordered stricter implementation of social distancing and health quarantine amid calls for a lockdown to contain the pandemic.
Indonesia has highest coronavirus mortality rate in Southeast Asia
First US service member dies
The first US military service member has died from the coronavirus, the Pentagon said on Monday, as it reported another sharp hike in the number of infected troops.
The Pentagon said it was a New Jersey Army National Guardsman who had tested positive for Covid-19 and had been hospitalised since March 21. He died on Saturday, it said.
Earlier on Monday, the Pentagon said that 568 troops had tested positive for the coronavirus, up from 280 on Thursday. More than 450 Defence Department civilians, contractors and dependents have also tested positive, it said.
US military has decided to stop providing more granular data about coronavirus infections within its ranks, citing concern that the information might be used by adversaries as the virus spreads.
The new policy, which the Pentagon detailed in a statement on Monday, appears to underscore US military concerns about the potential trajectory of the virus over the coming months – both at home and abroad.
School to resume in South Korea … online
South Korean children will start the new school year on April 9 with only online classes, after repeated delays due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the government said Tuesday.
Prime Minister Chung Sye Kyun said that despite the nation’s utmost efforts to contain the virus and lower the risk of infection, there is consensus among teachers and others that it is too early to let children go back to school.
The nation’s elementary schools, and junior and senior high schools were supposed to start the new academic year in early March, but the government has repeatedly postponed it to keep the virus from spreading among children.
The start was last postponed until April 6, but has now been delayed three more days to allow preparations to be made for online classes.
The nation now has 9,786 confirmed cases in total, with 162 deaths.
Italy extends lockdown as cases exceed 100,000
Italy’s government on Monday said it would extend its nationwide lockdown measures
against a coronavirus outbreak, due to end on Friday, at least until the Easter season in April.
The Health Ministry did not give a date for the new end of the lockdown, but said it would be in a law the government would propose. Easter Sunday is April 12 this year. Italy is predominantly Roman Catholic and contains the Vatican, the heart of the church.
Italians have been under lockdown for three weeks, with most shops, bars and restaurants shut and people forbidden from leaving their homes for all but non-essential needs.
Italy, which is the world’s hardest hit country in terms of number of deaths and accounts for more than a third of all global fatalities, saw its total death tally rise to 11,591 since the outbreak emerged in northern regions on February 21.
The death toll has risen by 812 in the last 24 hours, the Civil Protection Agency said, reversing two days of declines, although the number of new cases rose by just 4,050, the lowest increase since March 17, reaching a total of 101,739.
Deadliest day in Italy and Spain shows worst not over yet
28 Mar 2020
Women stand near the body of a man who died on the sidewalk in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Photo: Reuters
Ecuador struggles to collect the dead
Ecuadorean authorities said they would improve the collection of corpses, as delays related to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus has left families keeping their loved ones’ bodies in their homes for days in some cases.
Residents of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, have complained they have no way to dispose of relatives’ remains due to strict quarantine and curfew measures designed to prevent spread of the disease. Last week, authorities said they had removed 100 corpses from homes in Guayaquil.
But delays in collecting bodies in the Andean country, which has reported 1,966 cases of the virus and 62 deaths, were evident midday on Monday in downtown Guayaquil, where a man’s dead body lay on a sidewalk under a blue plastic sheet. Police said the man had collapsed while waiting in line to enter a store. Hours later, the body had been removed.
More than 70 per cent of the country’s coronavirus cases, which is among the highest tallies in Latin America, are in the southern province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located.
Panama to restrict movement by gender
The government of Panama announced strict quarantine measures that separate citizens by gender in an effort to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.
From Wednesday, men and women will only be able to leave their homes for two hours at a time, and on different days. Until now, quarantine regulations were not based on gender.
Men will be able to go to the supermarket or the pharmacy on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, and women will be allowed out on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.
No one will be allowed to go out on Sundays. The new measures will last for 15 days.
Police in Kenya use tear gas to enforce coronavirus curfew
Remote vote first for UN Security Council
The UN Security Council on Monday for the first time approved resolutions remotely after painstaking negotiations among diplomats who are teleworking due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Security Council unanimously voted by email for four resolutions, including one that extended through April 2021 the expiring mandate of UN experts who are monitoring sanctions on North Korea, diplomats said.
The UN mission in Somalia was also prolonged, until the end of June, and the mission in Darfur until the end of May – two short periods decided due to uncertainty over the spread of the pandemic.
The Council also endorsed a fourth resolution aimed at improving the protection for peacekeepers.
The resolutions are the first approved by the Security Council since it began teleworking on March 12 and comes as Covid-19 rapidly spreads in New York, which has become the epicenter of the disease in the United States.
Congo ex-president dies in France
Former Republic of Congo president Jacques Joaquim Yhombi Opango died in France on Monday of the new coronavirus, his family said. He was 81.
Yhombi Opango, who led Congo-Brazzaville from 1977 until he was toppled in 1979, died at a Paris hospital of Covid-19, his son Jean-Jacques said. He had been ill before he contracted the virus.
Yhombi Opango was an army officer who rose to power after the assassination of president Marien Ngouabi.
Yhombi Opango was ousted by long-time ruler Denis Sassou Nguesso. Accused of taking part in a coup plot against Sassou Nguesso, Yhombi Opango was jailed from 1987 to 1990. He was released a few months before a 1991 national conference that introduced multiparty politics in the central African country.
When civil war broke out in Congo in 1997, Yhombi Opango fled into exile in France. He was finally able to return home in 2007, but then divided his time between France and Congo because of his health problems.
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EU asks Britain to extend Brexit talks
The European Union expects Britain to seek an extension of its post-Brexit transition period beyond the end of the year, diplomats and officials said on Monday, as negotiations on trade have ground to a halt due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Europe has gone into a deep lockdown in a bid to curb the spread of the disease, with more than 330,000 infections reported on the continent and nearly 21,000 deaths.
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his health minister have both tested positive for the virus and the prime minister’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings – one of the masterminds behind Britain’s departure from the EU earlier this year – was self-isolating with symptoms.
London and the EU have been seeking to agree a new trade pact by the end of the year to kick in from 2021, even though the bloc has long said that such a time frame was extremely short to agree rules on everything from trade to security to fisheries.
The pyramid of Khufu, the largest of the Giza pyramid complex. Photo: Reuters
Great Pyramid in Egypt lights up in solidarity
Egypt’s famed Great Pyramid was emblazoned Monday evening with messages of unity and solidarity with those battling the novel coronavirus the world over.
“Stay safe”, “Stay at home” and “Thank you to those keeping us safe,” flashed in blue and green lights across the towering structure at the Giza plateau, southwest of the capital Cairo.
Egypt has so far registered 656 Covid-19 cases, including 41 deaths. Of the total infected, 150 reportedly recovered.
Egypt has carried out sweeping disinfection operations at archaeological sites, museums and other sites across the country.
In tandem, strict social distancing measures were imposed to reduce the risk of contagion among the country’s 100 million inhabitants.
Tourist and religious sites are shuttered, schools are closed and air traffic halted.
Myanmar braces for ‘big outbreak’ after migrant worker exodus from Thailand
30 Mar 2020
Saudi king to pay for all patients’ treatment
Saudi Arabia will finance treatment for anyone infected with the coronavirus in the country, the health minister said on Monday.
The kingdom has registered eight deaths among 1,453 infections, the highest among the six Gulf Arab states.
Health Minister Tawfiq Al Rabiah said King Salman would cover treatment for citizens and residents diagnosed with the virus, urging people with symptoms to get tested.
“We are all in the same boat,” he told a news conference, adding that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was overseeing containment efforts “night and day”.
Denmark eyes gradual reopening after Easter
Denmark may gradually lift a lockdown after Easter if the numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths remain stable, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Monday.
The Nordic country, which has reported 77 coronavirus-related deaths, last week extended until after Easter a two-week lockdown to limit physical contact between its citizens that began on March 11.
The number of daily deaths slowed to five on Sunday from eight and 11 on Saturday and Friday respectively. Denmark has reported a total of 2,577 coronavirus infections.
“If we over the next two weeks across Easter keep standing together by staying apart, and if the numbers remain stable for the next two weeks, then the government will begin a gradual, quiet and controlled opening of our society again, at the other side of Easter,” Frederiksen said.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions are workers are defying a curfew and returning home
When I spoke to him on the phone, he had just returned home to his village in the northern state of Rajasthan from neighbouring Gujarat, where he worked as a mason.
In the rising heat, Goutam Lal Meena had walked on macadam in his sandals. He said he had survived on water and biscuits.
In Gujarat, Mr Meena earned up to 400 rupees ($5.34; £4.29) a day and sent most of his earnings home. Work and wages dried up after India declared a 21-day lockdown with four hours notice on the midnight of 24 March to prevent the spread of coronavirus. (India has reported more than 1,000 Covid-19 cases and 27 deaths so far.) The shutting down of all transport meant that he was forced to travel on foot.
“I walked through the day and I walked through the night. What option did I have? I had little money and almost no food,” Mr Meena told me, his voice raspy and strained.
He was not alone. All over India, millions of migrant workers are fleeing its shuttered cities and trekking home to their villages.
These informal workers are the backbone of the big city economy, constructing houses, cooking food, serving in eateries, delivering takeaways, cutting hair in salons, making automobiles, plumbing toilets and delivering newspapers, among other things. Escaping poverty in their villages, most of the estimated 100 million of them live in squalid housing in congested urban ghettos and aspire for upward mobility.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Informal workers are the backbone of India’s big city economies
Last week’s lockdown turned them into refugees overnight. Their workplaces were shut, and most employees and contractors who paid them vanished.
Sprawled together, men, women and children began their journeys at all hours of the day last week. They carried their paltry belongings – usually food, water and clothes – in cheap rexine and cloth bags. The young men carried tatty backpacks. When the children were too tired to walk, their parents carried them on their shoulders.
They walked under the sun and they walked under the stars. Most said they had run out of money and were afraid they would starve. “India is walking home,” headlined The Indian Express newspaper.
The staggering exodus was reminiscent of the flight of refugees during the bloody partition in 1947. Millions of bedraggled refugees had then trekked to east and west Pakistan, in a migration that displaced 15 million people.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Migrant labourers feel they have more social security in their villages
This time, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers are desperately trying to return home in their own country. Battling hunger and fatigue, they are bound by a collective will to somehow get back to where they belong. Home in the village ensures food and the comfort of the family, they say.
Clearly, a lockdown to stave off a pandemic is turning into a humanitarian crisis.
Among the teeming refugees of the lockdown was a 90-year-old woman, whose family sold cheap toys at traffic lights in a suburb outside Delhi.
Kajodi was walking with her family to their native Rajasthan, some 100km (62 miles) away. They were eating biscuits and smoking beedis, – traditional hand-rolled cigarettes – to kill hunger. Leaning on a stick, she had been walking for three hours when journalist Salik Ahmed met her. The humiliating flight from the city had not robbed her off her pride. “She said she would have bought a ticket to go home if transport was available,” Mr Ahmed told me.
Others on the road included a five-year-old boy who was on a 700km (434 miles) journey by foot with his father, a construction worker, from Delhi to their home in Madhya Pradesh state in central India. “When the sun sets we will stop and sleep,” the father told journalist Barkha Dutt. Another woman walked with her husband and two-and-a-half year old daughter, her bag stuffed with food, clothes and water. “We had a place to stay but no money to buy food,” she said.
Then there was Rajneesh, a 26-year-old automobile worker who walking 250km (155 miles) to his village in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. It would take him four days, he reckoned. “We will die walking before coronavirus hits us,” the man told Ms Dutt.
He was not exaggerating. Last week, a 39-year-old man on a 300km (186 miles) trek from Delhi to Madhya Pradesh complained of chest pain and exhaustion and died; and a 62-year-old man, returning from a hospital by foot in Gujarat, collapsed outside his house and died. Four other migrants, turned away at the borders on their way to Rajasthan from Gujarat, were mowed down by a truck on a dark highway.
As the crisis worsened, state governments scrambled to arrange transport, shelter and food.
Image copyright SALIK AHMED/OUTLOOKImage caption Ninety-year-old Kajodi Devi is walking from Delhi to her village
But trying to transport them to their villages quickly turned into another nightmare. Hundreds of thousands of workers were pressed against each other at a major bus terminal in Delhi as buses rolled in to pick them up.
Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal implored the workers not to leave the capital. He asked them to “stay wherever you are, because in large gatherings, you are also at risk of being infected with the coronavirus.” He said his government would pay their rent, and announced the opening of 568 food distribution centres in the capital. Prime Minister Narendra Modi apologised for the lockdown “which has caused difficulties in your lives, especially the poor people”, adding these “tough measures were needed to win this battle.”
Whatever the reason, Mr Modi and state governments appeared to have bungled in not anticipating this exodus.
Mr Modi has been extremely responsive to the plight of Indian migrant workers stranded abroad: hundreds of them have been brought back home in special flights. But the plight of workers at home struck a jarring note.
“Wanting to go home in a crisis is natural. If Indian students, tourists, pilgrims stranded overseas want to return, so do labourers in big cities. They want to go home to their villages. We can’t be sending planes to bring home one lot, but leave the other to walk back home,” tweeted Shekhar Gupta, founder and editor of The Print.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption There is a precedent for this kind of exodus during crisis
The city, says Chinmay Tumbe, author of India Moving: A History of Migration, offers economic security to the poor migrant, but their social security lies in their villages, where they have assured food and accommodation. “With work coming to a halt and jobs gone, they are now looking for social security and trying to return home,” he told me.
Also there’s plenty of precedent for the flight of migrant workers during a crisis – the 2005 floods in Mumbai witnessed many workers fleeing the city. Half of the city’s population, mostly migrants, had also fled the city – then Bombay – in the wake of the 1918 Spanish flu.
When plague broke out in western India in 1994 there was an “almost biblical exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from the industrial city of Surat [in Gujarat]”, recounts historian Frank Snowden in his book Epidemics and Society.
Half of Bombay’s population deserted the city, during a previous plague epidemic in 1896. The draconian anti-plague measures imposed by the British rulers, writes Dr Snowden, turned out to be a “blunt sledgehammer rather than a surgical instrument of precision”. They had helped Bombay to survive the epidemic, but “the fleeing residents carried the disease with them, thereby spreading it.”
More than a century later, that same fear haunts India today. Hundreds of thousands of the migrants will eventually reach home, either by foot, or in packed buses. There they will move into their joint family homes, often with ageing parents. Some 56 districts in nine Indian states account for half of inter-state migration of male workers, according to a government report. These could turn out to be potential hotspots as thousands of migrants return home.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The fleeing migrants could spread the disease all over the country
Partha Mukhopadhyay, a senior fellow at Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research, suggests that 35,000 village councils in these 56 potentially sensitive districts should be involved to test returning workers for the virus, and isolate infected people in local facilities.
In the end, India is facing daunting and predictable challenges in enforcing the lockdown and also making sure the poor and homeless are not fatally hurt. Much of it, Dr Snowden told me, will depend on whether the economic and living consequences of the lockdown strategy are carefully managed, and the consent of the people is won. “If not, there is a potential for very serious hardship, social tension and resistance.” India has already announced a $22bn relief package for those affected by the lockdown.
The next few days will determine whether the states are able to transport the workers home or keep them in the cities and provide them with food and money. “People are forgetting the big stakes amid the drama of the consequences of the lockdown: the risk of millions of people dying,” says Nitin Pai of Takshashila Institution, a prominent think tank.
“There too, likely the worst affected will be the poor.”
Lotte, Kia and Hyundai are also gradually winding down their China business due to political risks, tariffs and losing market share
Western companies fleeing Donald Trump’s tariffs may not have luxury of a managed exit, but should look at the South Korean case studies closely, experts say
Samsung’s last mobile phone production line remaining in China in Huizhou is winding down, implementing a voluntary retirement programme. Photo: He Huifeng
Upon landing in Australia in 2017 to attend a seminar, a senior politician with South Korea’s parliamentary defence committee was greeted by Julie Bishop, then Australia’s foreign minister, who had a burning question: “How are you dealing with the China threat?”
Bishop was referring to the treatment of South Korean firms in China, which escalated after Seoul agreed in 2016 to a long-standing request from the United States to allow the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD) on South Korean soil.
Lotte Corporation, one of Korea’s chaebol conglomerates that dominate its economy, had sold a plot of land in Seongju county to the South Korean government, on which the system’s radar and interceptor missiles were set up. While both Washington and Seoul said it was meant to counter threats from North Korea, Beijing viewed THAAD as a security risk, since its radar had the range to monitor China’s nearby military facilities.
After it was deployed in 2017, THAAD triggered widespread boycotts of Lotte’s retail operations in China, with the state-owned media acting as aggressive cheerleaders. The company was sanctioned by Beijing, with its expansion plans in China grinding to a halt on the orders of the Chinese government.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) arrived in Seongju in September 2017. Photo: Reuters
Australia – like South Korea – is heavily dependent on trade with China, but is also closely bound to the US in defence and political terms, and Bishop feared that should Australia fall out of favour with Beijing, Australian companies could face similar risks, and so she sought the counsel of the politician, who asked not to be named.
The case of Canadian canola and meat exports being banned from China, reportedly in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, also known as Sabrina Meng and Cathy Meng, is an example of how third nations can be drawn into the modern day superpower rivalry.
Many analysts say the efforts of South Korean firms in China should be essential study material for Western governments and businesses about the political risks of doing business in the mainland, which are growing as the US-China trade war threatens to draw in other nations and expand into a broader geopolitical struggle.
But large South Korean firms have been gradually withdrawing from China for a number of years – even before the THAAD crisis – and have been able to leave on a managed basis. They are leaving to avoid a repeat of the political crisis that ruined Lotte’s China business, and to avoid tariffs on exports of their China-made products to the US.
Lotte have been forced to close retail operations in China. Photo: Reuters
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But they are also leaving because Chinese firms have become much more competitive in the domestic market that South Korean companies had found so fruitful for more than a decade – a fate that could easily befall Western companies that are eyeing China’s burgeoning middle-class consumer market. Now, while American firms are considering exiting China and setting up in nations that have lower tariff access to the US, South
Korean competitors have had a few years’ head start.
“In a way, all the problems that some South Korean companies had since 2017 might be a blessing in disguise. It meant that they started all of this [supply chain shift] two years before all the other companies,” said Andrew Gilholm, Seoul-based director of analysis for China and Korea at political risk advisory, Control Risks.
Another chaebol, Samsung Electronics, opened its first plant in Vietnam in 2008 and this long-term presence has enabled it to build a supply chain of South Korean companies, which in turn makes it easier for other South Korean firms to establish a base in the Southeast Asian nation.
We have experienced some of the worst situations in China over the past few years and learnt that the political risk there wouldn’t just simply go away overnight Ex-Lotte Shopping manager
As a result, South Korean investment into Vietnam climbed to US$1.97 billion in the first half of 2018, exceeding the country’s investment in China of US$1.6 billion over the same period for the first time, according to the Export-Import Bank of Korea.
Overall in 2018, South Korea’s total investment to the Southeast Asian country totalled US$3.2 billion. Its exports to Vietnam also increased to US$48.6 billion, 121 times that of 1992, when the two countries established diplomatic relations, and the trend is expected to continue.
“We have experienced some of the worst situations in China over the past few years and learnt that the political risk there wouldn’t just simply go away overnight,” said a former manager of Lotte Shopping, the chaebol’s retail arm, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“China may pass all the legislation ensuring the safety of foreign investments and the rights of multinational companies, but the chance of it swinging away again when there is another political confrontation is just too high … we cannot afford to take any more risk.”
China eventually lifted its economic sanctions on Lotte in April, and the municipal government of Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning province in Northeastern China, gave the company permission in May to resume work on the US$2.6 billion Lotte Town shopping and leisure development.
But according to a person close to the project, Lotte is considering selling the complex after its completion, as it does not wish to continue its retail business in China. A Lotte spokesman declined to comment, saying the situation is “complicated”.
On one hand, its eagerness to leave China reflects the volatility in the market, but on the other, its decision to complete the construction of project before leaving suggests an unwillingness to burn bridges in the process, analysts said.
Samsung is another South Korean giant downsizing its Chinese manufacturing presence after it closed its Shenzhen production line in May 2018, followed by its Tianjin factory in December.
Samsung has been very aware of the potential issues around those closuresJason Wright
Its last remaining mobile phone production line in
implementing a voluntary retirement programme. Samsung is also considering moving some television manufacturing from China to Vietnam, according to a company insider.
However, it too, is carefully managing its exit strategy, said Jason Wright, founder of Hong Kong-based intelligence firm Argo Associates, who is advising a growing number of South Korean companies seeking to leave China. Samsung is still a large supplier of microchips to Chinese companies like Huawei, and to exit on negative terms could disrupt its ongoing business.
“Samsung has been quite generous in the packages that have been offered [to workers in the factories that it has closed],” Wright said. “Samsung has been very aware of the potential issues around those closures.”
As well as the political risks and tariffs, Samsung has seen its mainland market share in several product queues shrink dramatically due to competition from Chinese rivals. Its share of China’s smartphone market, for example, fell from 20 per cent in 2013 to just 0.8 per cent last year, according to Strategy Analytics, a market research firm.
Over the same period, it has been moving its supply chain out of China in a “subtle and imperceptible” way, according to Julien Chaisse, a professor of trade law at City University of Hong Kong who has advised, among others, Lotte on its plans to relocate to Vietnam.
Samsung Electronics opened its first plant in Vietnam in 2008. Photo: Cissy Zhou
As stories emerged in June that Apple was considering a partial exit of China, it was impossible not to see parallels. iPhone sales in China fell 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, according to research firm Canalys, while smartphones will be among those facing a potential tariff of up to 25 per cent, although this has been at least delayed after the trade war truce agreed by
Meanwhile, South Korean car companies Kia and Hyundai’s combined market share in China fell to 2.7 per cent last year, from about 10 per cent at the beginning of the decade. Both companies, which have shared ownership, are downsizing their Chinese operations.
“In the past, China was just a great market, but for Korea, now China has become a competitor. So that is really a change in the dynamic over the last five years. China was not really able to compete with Korea in most areas,” said Wright from Argo Associates.
City University of Hong Kong professor Chaisse traces the exodus of South Korean firms back to 2014, before THAAD and before the trade war, and highlighted an arcane arbitration case at the United Nations’ dispute settlement courts as a turning point. After that case, South Korean companies in China faced an increasingly hostile environment.
Filed in 2014 and settled in 2017, the case emerged after South Korean company Ansung Housing had been forced to sell a golf resort it was developing in Eastern China after a change in the country’s real estate legislation.
Ansung took the case to an arbitration panel, claiming it breached a Sino-Korean investment treaty. The company won – only the second defeat for China in two decades of participation in the court, but this ushered in a “change in atmosphere” for South Korean firms.
“My take is that while the Korean case is unique for a number of reasons, it highlights what is going to happen to many other foreign companies operating in China,” Chaisse said.
“I think very soon even European companies will be reconsidering their businesses in China. Every time it will be a different story: different countries, different companies, in different economic sectors will have different reaction times and the magnitude of their withdrawal may vary.”
But for those now fleeing trade war tariffs, they may not have the luxury of long-term planning that companies like Samsung and Lotte have had, said Gilholm from Control Risks.
“Long term, I think the Korean firms that are moving out of China have had it easier because they haven’t had to do it under quite such pressured and scrutinised circumstances as a company which starts to move things now,” he said.
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