Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
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It took China less than 70 years to emerge from isolation and become one of the world’s greatest economic powers.
As the country celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, we look back on how its transformation spread unprecedented wealth – and deepened inequality – across the Asian giant.
“When the Communist Party came into control of China it was very, very poor,” says DBS chief China economist Chris Leung.
“There were no trading partners, no diplomatic relationships, they were relying on self-sufficiency.”
Over the past 40 years, China has introduced a series of landmark market reforms to open up trade routes and investment flows, ultimately pulling hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
The 1950s had seen one of the biggest human disasters of the 20th Century. The Great Leap Forward was Mao Zedong’s attempt to rapidly industrialise China’s peasant economy, but it failed and 10-40 million people died between 1959-1961 – the most costly famine in human history.
This was followed by the economic disruption of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, a campaign which Mao launched to rid the Communist party of his rivals, but which ended up destroying much of the country’s social fabric.
‘Workshop of the world’
Yet after Mao’s death in 1976, reforms spearheaded by Deng Xiaoping began to reshape the economy. Peasants were granted rights to farm their own plots, improving living standards and easing food shortages.
The door was opened to foreign investment as the US and China re-established diplomatic ties in 1979. Eager to take advantage of cheap labour and low rent costs, money poured in.
“From the end of the 1970s onwards we’ve seen what is easily the most impressive economic miracle of any economy in history,” says David Mann, global chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Through the 1990s, China began to clock rapid growth rates and joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 gave it another jolt. Trade barriers and tariffs with other countries were lowered and soon Chinese goods were everywhere.
“It became the workshop of the world,” Mr Mann says.
Take these figures from the London School of Economics: in 1978, exports were $10bn (£8.1bn), less than 1% of world trade.
By 1985, they hit $25bn and a little under two decades later exports valued $4.3trn, making China the world’s largest trading nation in goods.
Poverty rates tumble
The economic reforms improved the fortunes of hundreds of millions of Chinese people.
The World Bank says more than 850 million people been lifted out of poverty, and the country is on track to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020.
At the same time, education rates have surged. Standard Chartered projects that by 2030, around 27% of China’s workforce will have a university education – that’s about the same as Germany today.
Rising inequality
Still, the fruits of economic success haven’t spread evenly across China’s population of 1.3 billion people.
Examples of extreme wealth and a rising middle class exist alongside poor rural communities, and a low skilled, ageing workforce. Inequality has deepened, largely along rural and urban divides.
“The entire economy is not advanced, there’s huge divergences between the different parts,” Mr Mann says.
The World Bank says China’s income per person is still that of a developing country, and less than one quarter of the average of advanced economies.
China’s average annual income is nearly $10,000, according to DBS, compared to around $62,000 in the US.
Slower growth
Now, China is shifting to an era of slower growth.
For years it has pushed to wean its dependence off exports and toward consumption-led growth. New challenges have emerged including softer global demand for its goods and a long-running trade war with the US. The pressures of demographic shifts and an ageing population also cloud the country’s economic outlook.
Still, even if the rate of growth in China eases to between 5% and 6%, the country will still be the most powerful engine of world economic growth.
“At that pace China will still be 35% of global growth, which is the biggest single contributor of any country, three times more important to global growth than the US,” Mr Mann says.
The next economic frontier
China is also carving out a new front in global economic development. The country’s next chapter in nation-building is unfolding through a wave of funding in the massive global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
The so-called new Silk Road aims to connect almost half the world’s populations and one-fifth of global GDP, setting up trade and investment links that stretch across the world.
Military experts say PLA modernisation brought about during Xi Jinping’s presidency will be the main focus of October 1 celebration in Beijing
It’s necessary for China to ‘show some of its muscle’ amid the trade dispute with the US, observer says
China’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile will be among the military hardware on show on October 1. Photo: Reuters
China plans to show off its most advanced active weapon systems at the upcoming National Day parade, which will be the biggest of the 14 such events it has held over the past seven decades.
The parade, to be held on October 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, will highlight the military modernisation – particularly in nuclear deterrence – that has taken place since President Xi Jinping came to power in late 2012, according to military experts.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) offered a glimpse of those weapons during rehearsals for the parade in downtown Beijing from September 14.
As part of the celebrations, Xi, who also chairs the Central Military Commission, will inspect 48 squads on the ground and more than a dozen airborne squadrons, according to a military insider involved in support services for the parade.
More than a dozen airborne squadrons will take part in the National Day parade. Photo: Kyodo
The squadrons will include the air force’s first stealth fighter, the J-20; the main active warplanes such as the J-10 and J-11B; and armed helicopters like the Z-20. However, the J-8 fighter jet would not appear this year, the source said, confirming that the first interceptor built in China has been formally retired.
“The ground march will be led by several hero forces from the five theatre commands, which is different from previous squads selected from the ground forces, air force and navy,” said the insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“The main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA under President Xi’s leadership over the past seven years, with the military overhaul being one of the key achievements.”
Thirty-three of the 48 squads would be “weapon squads”, while the 13 others would be made up of infantry troops from the five theatre commands, the source said.
National Day fireworks in Hong Kong cancelled over safety fears
As part of the PLA’s sweeping military reforms, the army’s previous seven military commands were reshaped into five theatre commands, while the four former general headquarters were dissolved and replaced by 15 small functional departments.
In September 2015, Xi announced the PLA would shed 300,000 troops, cutting its size to 2 million, a move aimed at turning the PLA into a more nimble and combat-ready fighting force on a par with international standards.
Xi also split the former Second Artillery Corps into the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force, with the latter backing up the military’s electronic warfare units in cyberspace and outer space.
Among the 33 weapon squads, the highlights are expected to be the PLA’s strategic nuclear missiles such as the Rocket Force’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-17 hypersonic missile and the sea-launched JL-2, or Big Wave-2.
Adam Ni, a researcher at Macquarie University in Australia, said that showing off different types of missiles on land and sea indicated that the PLA was improving its nuclear deterrence capabilities by perfecting a three-pronged military force structure, or the so-called nuclear triad.
The DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile will be one of the highlights of the parade. Photo: AP
The DF-41 is capable of carrying multiple warheads and many decoys, making it harder to detect than silo-based systems and better able to survive a first strike.
Ni said the DF-41 was China’s next-generation cutting-edge weapon.
“It’s actually an advanced ICBM and has a range to hit practically anywhere in the world, including the continental United States,” Ni said.
“The DF-41 is the ultimate symbol of the destructive potential of Chinese armed forces, just as nuclear weapons are similar symbols of the US and Russia.”
The JL-2 – which has a shorter range of 7,000km (4,350 miles) and can be launched by the PLA Navy’s Type 094 submarines – is unable to hit anywhere on the American continent when launched from submarines in the South China Sea and coastal areas of China.
China tests new warships in live-fire drills near Vietnam
However, China is developing the JL-3, which has a range of about 9,000km; the upgraded version of the JL-2, with a flight test conducted in June, though it is still less than the 12,000km range of the American Trident II.
“China is stepping up its military modernisation, which includes a number of aspects; the land-based aspect is introducing more mobile and survivable missile systems,” Ni said.
“The game change will happen when China is able to hit the whole US continent with its missile submarines in Chinese coastal waters.”
In military terms, survivable refers to the ability to remain mission capable after a single engagement.
The DF-17 is a land-to-land short-range strategic missile capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads. The US intelligence community has estimated that it will reach initial operational capability by 2020. But if the missile is displayed in the parade, that means it is active already.
China conducted two tests of the DF-17 in November 2017, with the first launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Centre in Inner Mongolia.
An insider said the main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA. Photo: Reuters
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the nuclear weapons that would go on show in the parade would all be strategic missiles designed to improve China’s deterrent capabilities.
The show comes after the PLA delivered a national defence white paper in July stressing its goal to “maintain national strategic security by deterring other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China”.
Unlike in the past, this year’s report stated that the US and China were now competing superpowers, and that the PLA’s growing forces were developing to the point that they could challenge the US.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said it was also necessary for the PLA to “show some of its muscle” amid the ongoing trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.
“To prevent misunderstanding, most of the weapons are just strategic equipment, not tactical arms, because Beijing still doesn’t want to irritate Washington,” he said.
About 280,000 people were involved in the rehearsals for the parade and related support services, according to Xinhua.
October 1 event is intended to be a showcase for military’s progress under Xi Jinping, with J-20 stealth fighters set to take pride of place
Domestically developed weapons are main focus of event despite long-standing problems in building aircraft engines
Chinese J-10 jets perform at the Dubai air show in 2017. Photo: AFP
China has stepped up intensive rehearsals for the upcoming National Day parade, which military insiders say is designed to showcase the achievements of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s modernisation drive.
The parade on October 1 will mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic and will focus on weapons developed since Xi came to power in late 2012, despite long-standing problems in aircraft engine development.
Video clips circulating on mainland social media in recent days have shown at least seven types of aircraft – including the KJ-2000 airborne early warning and control aircraft and J-10 and J-11B fighter jets – taking part in rehearsals over the countryside around Beijing.
A military insider said the country’s first stealth fighter jet, the J-20, had been rehearsing over the western suburbs of the capital since April.
“There will be up to seven J-20 displayed in the military parade, which is the largest formation since its formal deployment to the Chinese air force in 2017,” the military insider said.
“The J-20 has entered mass production. So far at least 70 J-20s have been made, even though all of them are still equipped with Russian AL-31 engines.”
Earlier this month, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force released a video of a flight of seven J-20s, the largest formation seen so far, suggesting that the fifth-generation warplane has gone into mass production as an arms race with the United States mounts in the region.
The second-largest J-20 formation was shown in an air force video for PLA Day on August 1, when five of the jets were shown.
China has been forced to deploy the J-20 ahead of its schedule since the US has increased the deployment of its fifth-generation stealth fighter jets like the F-22 and F-35s in the Asia-Pacific region.
The US and its allies, including Japan and South Korea, will have more than 200 F-35s by 2025, which means China also needs a similar number of stealth fighters.
To meet demand, China has been working on the development of a purpose-built thrust engine for its stealth fighter since the early 2000s, but has yet to achieve international quality control standards due to problems that include single-crystal turbine blade technology.
China’s air force spreads its wings in 70th anniversary video
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said aircraft engine development had been a long-standing shortcoming but it would not affect the practical fighting capacity of the J-20, which currently uses Russian engines.
“The J-20 hasn’t used the domestic engines so far because it wants a better one, and it still has time,” Song said.
“Other [Chinese-developed] warplanes like the J-10, J-11 and multipurpose attack helicopters are all modified and advanced types, indicating comprehensive achievements amid China’s military modernisation over the past years.”
A Chinese J-20 stealth fighter has entered mass production. Photo: EPA-EFE
Besides the domestically developed aircraft, Beijing is going to display its strategic nuclear missiles, such as the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, as centrepieces of its National Day military parade, according to a Beijing-based military source.
Xi, who also chairs the powerful Central Military Commission, inspected the country’s biggest military parade at the Zhurihe Combined Tactics Training Base in Inner Mongolia in 2017 to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the PLA, but the source said the weapons displayed in Zhurihe had been developed under the leadership of Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao.
“Xi needs to highlight his personal achievements in his era, that’s why this year’s parade has political aims more than military significance,” the source said.
The source also highlighted the significance of the People’s Republic marking its 70th anniversary because the Soviet Union did not survive for that length of time.
“Xi is attempting to tell the outside world that Chinese communist regime has been consolidated under his leadership.”
Military experts say PLA modernisation brought about during Xi Jinping’s presidency will be the main focus of October 1 celebration in Beijing
It’s necessary for China to ‘show some of its muscle’ amid the trade dispute with the US, observer says
China’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile will be among the military hardware on show on October 1. Photo: Reuters
China plans to show off its most advanced active weapon systems at the upcoming National Day parade, which will be the biggest of the 14 such events it has held over the past seven decades.
The parade, to be held on October 1 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, will highlight the military modernisation – particularly in nuclear deterrence – that has taken place since President Xi Jinping came to power in late 2012, according to military experts.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) offered a glimpse of those weapons during rehearsals for the parade in downtown Beijing from September 14.
As part of the celebrations, Xi, who also chairs the Central Military Commission, will inspect 48 squads on the ground and more than a dozen airborne squadrons, according to a military insider involved in support services for the parade.
More than a dozen airborne squadrons will take part in the National Day parade. Photo: Kyodo
The squadrons will include the air force’s first stealth fighter, the J-20; the main active warplanes such as the J-10 and J-11B; and armed helicopters like the Z-20. However, the J-8 fighter jet would not appear this year, the source said, confirming that the first interceptor built in China has been formally retired.
“The ground march will be led by several hero forces from the five theatre commands, which is different from previous squads selected from the ground forces, air force and navy,” said the insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“The main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA under President Xi’s leadership over the past seven years, with the military overhaul being one of the key achievements.”
Thirty-three of the 48 squads would be “weapon squads”, while the 13 others would be made up of infantry troops from the five theatre commands, the source said.
National Day fireworks in Hong Kong cancelled over safety fears
As part of the PLA’s sweeping military reforms, the army’s previous seven military commands were reshaped into five theatre commands, while the four former general headquarters were dissolved and replaced by 15 small functional departments.
In September 2015, Xi announced the PLA would shed 300,000 troops, cutting its size to 2 million, a move aimed at turning the PLA into a more nimble and combat-ready fighting force on a par with international standards.
Xi also split the former Second Artillery Corps into the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force, with the latter backing up the military’s electronic warfare units in cyberspace and outer space.
Among the 33 weapon squads, the highlights are expected to be the PLA’s strategic nuclear missiles such as the Rocket Force’s land-based DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-17 hypersonic missile and the sea-launched JL-2, or Big Wave-2.
Adam Ni, a researcher at Macquarie University in Australia, said that showing off different types of missiles on land and sea indicated that the PLA was improving its nuclear deterrence capabilities by perfecting a three-pronged military force structure, or the so-called nuclear triad.
The DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile will be one of the highlights of the parade. Photo: AP
The DF-41 is capable of carrying multiple warheads and many decoys, making it harder to detect than silo-based systems and better able to survive a first strike.
Ni said the DF-41 was China’s next-generation cutting-edge weapon.
“It’s actually an advanced ICBM and has a range to hit practically anywhere in the world, including the continental United States,” Ni said.
“The DF-41 is the ultimate symbol of the destructive potential of Chinese armed forces, just as nuclear weapons are similar symbols of the US and Russia.”
The JL-2 – which has a shorter range of 7,000km (4,350 miles) and can be launched by the PLA Navy’s Type 094 submarines – is unable to hit anywhere on the American continent when launched from submarines in the South China Sea and coastal areas of China.
China tests new warships in live-fire drills near Vietnam
However, China is developing the JL-3, which has a range of about 9,000km; the upgraded version of the JL-2, with a flight test conducted in June, though it is still less than the 12,000km range of the American Trident II.
“China is stepping up its military modernisation, which includes a number of aspects; the land-based aspect is introducing more mobile and survivable missile systems,” Ni said.
“The game change will happen when China is able to hit the whole US continent with its missile submarines in Chinese coastal waters.”
In military terms, survivable refers to the ability to remain mission capable after a single engagement.
The DF-17 is a land-to-land short-range strategic missile capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads. The US intelligence community has estimated that it will reach initial operational capability by 2020. But if the missile is displayed in the parade, that means it is active already.
China conducted two tests of the DF-17 in November 2017, with the first launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Centre in Inner Mongolia.
An insider said the main goal of this year’s parade is to promote the military modernisation of the PLA. Photo: Reuters
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the nuclear weapons that would go on show in the parade would all be strategic missiles designed to improve China’s deterrent capabilities.
The show comes after the PLA delivered a national defence white paper in July stressing its goal to “maintain national strategic security by deterring other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China”.
Unlike in the past, this year’s report stated that the US and China were now competing superpowers, and that the PLA’s growing forces were developing to the point that they could challenge the US.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said it was also necessary for the PLA to “show some of its muscle” amid the ongoing trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.
“To prevent misunderstanding, most of the weapons are just strategic equipment, not tactical arms, because Beijing still doesn’t want to irritate Washington,” he said.
About 280,000 people were involved in the rehearsals for the parade and related support services, according to Xinhua.
Military stresses combat readiness and war mentality in production released just weeks before 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic
China’s air force shows a more assertive side in a new propaganda video. Photo: Handout
The Chinese air force has ramped up its combat rhetoric in its latest propaganda video, with pilots warning enemies in English and top brass stressing the need for crisis mode.
The four-minute video was posted on the Ministry of National Defence’s website on Wednesday and begins with two J-20 stealth fighters taking off from an unidentified airbase.
At least three missile-carrying J-11 jets are then shown make low passes and various aerobatics at sea.
After that, a pilot shouts in English: “This is the PLA Air Force speaking. You are about to enter Chinese airspace. Leave immediately. Leave immediately.”
The video also features members of an elite brigade called the “Eagles of Liaoning province”, a frequent winner of PLA Air Force competitions.
PLA Air Force formation ‘a sign of stealth fighter mass production’ in China
Brigade member Bai Long, a J-20 fighter pilot, says the team have a higher calling.
“Winning over enemies is more important than winning competitions,” Bai says.
Also featured is Wang Hai, a 93-year-old combat veteran from the Korean war, who encourages air force personnel to fear nothing during combat.
“You cannot do anything if you are not brave enough. You can’t be a pilot if you fear death,” Wang says.
Wang Yongtong, a brigade commander, is also quoted as saying that the Chinese air force is using war games to strengthen its combat readiness.
“We will meticulously prepare for war and improve our combat capacity to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and interests,” he says.
The video’s release comes just a few weeks before China marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic with a massive military parade showcasing its military weapons.
It also underlines China’s increasingly assertive efforts to defend its interests.
On Wednesday, China hit out at Canada for sending a warship to traverse the Taiwan Strait.
And in late July, South Korea claimed that two Chinese warplanes entered South Korea’s air defence identification zone, a claimed denied by the Chinese foreign ministry.
And in late January, a Chinese surveillance plane crossed the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea via the Tsushima Strait, prompting the Japanese air self-defense force to scramble fighter jets.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 